Intro

B0wman Chrome regularly proves to be the riskiest of the Bowman Flagship releases every year with a checklist packed full of recent International Free Agents, and this year is no different. Indeed, all five of our Tier 1 prospects with a 1st Bowman logo in 2025 Bowman Chrome are teenagers, either from the 2024 or 2025 signing classes. It may be a bumpy ride, but hopefully it's a fun one.

Check out the 2025 Bowman Chrome TLDR article for your quick reference needs.

Tier Ranks

Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.

Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.

Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc. 

Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.

*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.

Risk and Ceiling Grades

We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player. 

Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.  

Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc). 

Note: We write these break downs throughout the weeks after the checklist is released, so you may occasionally come across slightly out of date stats or news and promotions or call-ups that are not fully accounted for.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tier 3

Elian De La Cruz (OF, 17)
There is no relation to Elly here! The Diamondbacks top 2025 IFA as a $1.1 MM signer, De La Cruz’s DSL season ended in July after just 17 games. He’s very physically mature for his age, and it’s clear that power will be his main tool, and equally clear already that he will be limited to an OF corner. At the plate he sets in deep into his back hip with his stride, and pulls his upper body back with his leg kick. It leads to a longer swing but with all that strength and proper technique that he (mostly) has, it leads to some great results. That didn’t show up at all in his limited sample this year though – his contact rate was fine, his approach was fine, but he just wasn’t seeing loud contact or positive batted ball results. They could have come with another 50-75 PA’s or not, but he went down. There’s no safety at all in a player like this, and he’s not a dynamic talent, but he does have that one tool we care most about. Players like this (injury + not proven + minimal defensive value) tend to repeat the DSL, so that knocks him down a bit. I'd only be interested if there’s a discount in cost to acquire because he “didn’t do anything” this year. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Tier None

Yu-Min Lin (LHP, 22)
2025 Bowman write-up:
Lin’s soft tossing repertoire for what it mostly profiles as - a backend innings eater that will need to survive through deception and limiting hard contact. His K rate, which dropped below 30% for the first time in his first pass at Double-A to end the 2023 season, fell even further in his second go through in 2024 down to under 22%. His groundball rate in that same 2024 Double-A stint was 45%, which is fine, but nothing to write home about. I saw him put to many pitches in the heart of the zone and that’s just not going to work against good hitters. That’s because his fastball is usually in the high 80’s to low 90’s and doesn’t have any special characteristics that would help it play up. The secondaries are what keeps him relevant, especially the change-up when it’s on. The slurvy curveball/slider is the one he commands the best in the looks I had, but it just didn’t get the swing and miss that you’d hope with his best secondary. Overall the command was spotty, and there was a lot of pitches that were left in the dirt or sailing outside the zone to the arm-side. His delivery is unconventional and fun - I can’t but help think it’s almost like he’s doing a rock-a-bye-baby thing. Not the Luis Garcia Astros style, but just a lot of arm and walking motion towards the arm side. That may be why his command isn’t as consistent as I expected with his lower velocity. Typically the lower velocity arms find success through command, but Lin seemingly relies more on the deception end of the spectrum. Prior to 2024, I was on the side of the fence that Lin would be able to hang in an MLB rotation. Now, I’m starting to lean to the other side of the fence - more of a swingman, org-depth, follower, long reliever type seems to be the likeliest outcome. One final note - Lin is currently ramping up in extended Spring Training - so we don’t have any new looks to see how he’s bouncing back from the underwhelming 2024 season. He missed most of Spring Training as he had to return to Taiwan for a military obligation. Speaking of Taiwan, Lin pitched in the gold medal match against Samurai Japan in Tokyo this past November at the Premier 12 International Competition and shut them down over four innings, helping Taiwan win the gold medal. That notoriety is not to be discounted, and that International appeal with a recent big result to back it up is why his cards will potentially have more value than you would expect given his profile. Unfortunately, it’s base cards only, so the value to be had isn’t as high as it could be. I’d be selling into that initial hype as much as possible.
2025 Bowman Chrome update:
There’s no real change from my 2025 Bowman evaluation at a high level other than we’ve now gotten a decent sample size of Triple-A starts and a new pitch in the arsenal. Unfortunately for Lin, the Diamondbacks Triple-A team plays ball in the PCL launching pads. He’s not had one outing where he’s held the opponents scoreless, and 12 out of the 17 outings have been of the three runs or more variety as of writing. The culprit, as usual, is the lack of velocity on the four-seam fastball. Typically living around 90 mph, it’s his least effective pitch (tjStuff+ 87.2) while being his most thrown pitch at over 36% frequency. The new pitch is a sweeper which profiles similar to his slider with good horizontal break - he’s essentially decided to throw his slider versus lefties only, and his sweeper is now the horizontal mover he’ll throw against righties (as well as lefties). The non-fastball arsenal is back-end starter worthy, but the fastball is going to be a problem. I saw it jumped on way too much, not to mention hanging a few curveballs in hitter happy zones. Once he’s in the majors, I just don’t see how patient MLB hitters don’t regularly feast on his offerings. As I said in 2025 Bowman, take any opportunity to sell. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 2, Ceiling: 4 (Auto Only)

Spencer Giesting (P, 24)
Giesting (ghee-sting, like the karate uniform, or clarified butter) was only an 11th Round pick in 2022 from Charlotte. However, he’s since proven he’s a surefire starter that’s likely to reach the majors in that role, and soon. Upside though? I’m not so sure. At 6’4”, he has prototypical size that’s led to him throwing up solid workload numbers each of his three professional seasons. The lefty has unspectacular velocity in the low-90’s but hides the ball out of his hand very well, which allows it to play well enough. His best pitch is a slider that he uses very often, an offering that dives away from lefties with fantastic effect and gets loads of chase. His command should also be good enough as it currently stands. Do not look at his numbers this year. Pitching in Reno is akin to pitching on the moon – it’s almost never a positive situation for any pitcher, and he’s no different. Still there’s only backend starter appeal here, with a long-term prognosis of being a swingman or long reliever. He’s best deployed by facing a lineup where there's a string of lefties. There’s value in that for sure, but he’s not exactly the most versatile of arms. He's the epitome of a team-collector Tier None name. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 2, Ceiling: 3 (Both)

Pedro Catuy (OF, 19)
A Panamanian signed in the 2023 IFA period, Catuy will be 20 by the time next season starts and has not yet seen full-season ball, partially due to being injured for all of 2024. His season this year in the Complex was quite rough around the edges, and featured a low contact rate, little pop, and not much of an approach. The approach thing is a worry, but everything else can be explained away by his being underdeveloped physically, and coming back after a long layoff. There’s very good speed already that should tick up. His swing is a hair stiff, but otherwise without major defects. I think that with his 6’1” frame there is still a nice dream to be had here as a CF. He just needs to gain some good weight so we can see what he truly looks like on the offensive side. There’s so far to go in his development yet. Even if we're optimistic and assume he progresses at roughly a level per year, he’ll be old for those levels. There’s clearly no clear path to the majors right now, but it’s a fun toolbox at least should he increase his physicality. He's likely to gain real-life prospect relevance far before he gains hobby relevance. He’s a clear Tier None name for now. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5 - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

Athletics

Tier 3

Tommy White (3B, 22)
Tommy White was a complete star at the Collegiate level, hitting a freshman record 27 home runs at NC State and earning the nickname Tommy Tanks before transferring to LSU and anchoring the Tigers lineup for a couple seasons. Surprisingly, White does not strike out very much at all. Also a bit surprisingly, White has not yet really tapped into the prodigious home run power he exhibited at the collegiate level. Since moving up to AA at the end of July, White has just one round-tripper. The hit tool is strong, we know the raw power exists, and the approach and zone recognition seems to be dialed in. The issue with White is that he lacks athleticism and will find himself essentially positionless at the Major League level. While you’d normally assume he would play a perfectly capable 1B in the Bigs, a fella by the name of Nick Kurtz seems to have that locked down for the Athletics. And, with the pending Vegas move a few years away, they might actually decide against trading their breakout star, allowing them to arrive in Vegas with a bit of momentum. Now, things change very quickly in baseball, and who knows what sort of roster moves will happen before White is knocking on the door, which you would assume would be next Summer at the earliest. He is similar to Mark Vientos, where sticking him at third would likely be one step short of crippling as far as defensive value goes, but you would like to get the bat in the lineup. With Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, et al rotating through those DH at-bats, it would be tough to hand the DH role to an unproven young player in White. The realistic outcome for White is probably winding up as a solid big league bat with little to no defensive versatility coming with that profile. He will have to hit at a high level in order to justify a roster spot given that caveat, so the question is how much power he can tap into in the upper minors. Running a 49% or higher ground ball rate at every level of the minors is going to be a problem if he wants to showcase his raw power. As far as hobby value goes, White is a fun player who had some electric collegiate moments so he will definitely carry some value purely through name recognition. Unless he starts piling up bombs AND finds a home on the dirt where he can put up average defensive metrics, it is hard to picture White being able to put up any sort of cumulative stats that gets people interested in investing in his future. If/when he starts hitting the ball in the air a lot more, there’s some Tier 2 potential. Until then, he’s lacking a plus in-game tool which pushes him down into Tier 3. - Will Jarvis
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 7 (Both)

Ayden Johnson (3B, 17)
Usually these seven figure signers, as Johnson was for $1.5 MM this winter, hit at the top or middle of their DSL lineups. But he wasn’t. Johnson was hitting near the bottom of the lineup most the year. It’s likely because the Bahamian simply does not have much physical development at present, especially in his upper body. That could also be why he didn’t play much SS, which is the position he signed as. He exhibits strong hands and can yield some excellent exit velocity for his age (I saw 104), but since he really doesn’t use his lower body well there’s nothing close to over-the-fence pop at present (the 104 was hit directly into the ground). There are plenty of contact issues, and it’s not all due to lack of physicality. He starts with an upright setup, then as the pitcher comes home he crouches down as he strides. It’s a mechanism to load into his back hip, but man…that’s more complicated than it needs to be! He also tends to lose that load on his hip – as I said it’s his hands that are his best asset right now, not his legs. There’s a little bit of a passive approach which has led to a higher OBP, but it’s easy to see it’s not not much of a hit tool right now. It shouldn’t be expected. He needs to gain some good weight and simplify his operations to even see what kind of player he could be. There’s clearly good raw power in there somewhere, so he’s a solid Tier 3, with immense risk. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Shotaro Morii (SS/P, 18)
Shotaro Morii made headlines in January when he signed with the Athletics as a traditional IFA out of Japan for $1,510,500. Morii eschewed the traditional route for Japanese prospects working their way through the ranks of the NPB and instead signed with an MLB team straight out of high school. There is a ton to unpack in Morii, so I will start with what we know. Morii was signed as a two way player, profiling as a middle infielder who can also pitch. Morii is more advanced as a hitter at present and he only appeared as a Shortstop/Second Baseman and DH for the ACL Athletics this year at the Complex level. Following through on their promise to develop him as a two way player, Morii began pitching in the fall instructional league at the Complex, and to date has had a single 1 inning appearance that seemingly went well. With his lack of experience it does make some sense to ease him into pitching in a more instructional, lower pressure environment with the Fall league. Morii posted a solid line for the year at the ACL level, with a 258/399/384 slash line for a .783 OPS. His profile was defined by a high walk rate and an even higher strikeout rate. Morii failed to put up meaningful power (3 HR) or speed (4 SB) figures, so while he was reaching base at a solid clip, he did not impact the ball or make any serious noise on the basepaths - never a great thing when we are looking at a player in terms of their hobby value. One question that I keep going back to - should the pedestrian year for Morii at the plate be graded on a scale as he adjusts from the Japanese High School level, something we don’t really have a prior example of? Obviously, every prospect at this level is coming from some sort of high school baseball level, but I am inclined to give Morii a touch of leniency here given the massive adjustment not only on the baseball side of things, but given the major life and culture change coming from Japan at 18. The general plan for Morii should be much more clear once the calendar rolls over into 2026. It would seem almost certain that if he is going to pitch next year, he will repeat the ACL level as a 19 year old. If the pitching experiment doesn’t really land this Fall, we could see the Athletics do away with the two way label and push him to Low-A and focus purely on hitting. What will make Morii a more popular chase is the fact that he has autographs in the International Refractor set. And, at the very least, #1 of 5 on the serial numbered set is signed in Kanji. The premium for Kanji autographs for players like Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki is massive. While certainly not in the same stratosphere as those two names, I’d expect the Kanji International Refractor to be one of the biggest chases in the entire product- especially if it is only on one card and not the entire set of five. The bland results at the Complex don’t give enough juice to push Morii into Tier 2. The International appeal give him a Tier 3 floor at a minimum, and it would not be shocking to see his cards fetch a Tier 2 price point in the short term. - Will Jarvis
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 6 (Both)

Atlanta Braves

Tier 2

John Gil (SS, 19)
Signed back in 2023 for low-six figures, it’s a burn that’s been on the slower end thus far for Gil, especially his defense, but those embers are starting to flare up now. He’s played mostly SS where his plus speed is best utilized, but there was enough concern that he couldn’t stick there that he saw significant time at 3B last year, and previously 1B. That’s changed quite a bit as his body has matured significantly from last year to now. He’s listed at 6’1” 175, but presently he's at least 10 lbs of good weight more than that. It hasn’t shown up on the offensive side in terms of significant power on the whole, but it is giving him more defensive consistency and a real shot to stick at SS that he wasn’t previously thought to have. It’d be really nice for the hobby if he did stick there, because there isn’t anyone playing full season ball in the Braves system with his offensive upside. A good chunk of that upside is on the bases, as I mentioned – he’s stolen over 40 bases for two consecutive years now. That should continue as he progresses through the minors. He’s also shown a decent hit tool. At the plate he starts with hands high and uses a small leg kick to start his hips rotating and brings hands back a touch. There’s a bit of disjointedness there, but he levels it out with a hip drop to really get on plane in an athletic position. His swing plane is flat enough to make contact at an above-average rate for the level already, even being young for Low-A at 19 (where he's been all year). What’s intriguing is the power that he’s now tapping into in the 2nd half of the season. Since returning from a brief injury on July 26 through the end of the season, he smacked 17 XBH in 33 games, including 6 HR, while maintaining most of his contact-ability and a high average. That’s good for a wRC+ of 172. Sure, this could've just been an end-of-year hot streak – but what if it’s not? Could this be a burgeoning 5-tool player? I’d be willing to make a gamble to that effect, but I certainly won’t be the only one. The Braves are a great hobby market, and they’ll be treating him like a safe option with a high ceiling. Like Gil himself, that could lead to him being slow burn to a Top 10 chase in this product. He’s likely worth it. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Tier 3

Diego Tornes (OF, 17)
The Braves top International Free Agent signing in the most recent class for roughly $2.5M, Tornes was billed as a switch hitting outfielder with the potential for above average to plus tools across the offensive skill set. There’s not much outside of batting practice swings available from a video perspective, so we’ll primarily have to rely on the stats and data available. Don’t get me wrong, his batting practice swings look great, but putting any sort of weight in that is usually a fool’s errand. In 32 games in the DSL, Tornes put up a respectable .279/.395/.402 with 24 steals for a 117 wRC+. When you put that in the context of Tornes being one of the youngest players in the DSL in 2025, it gives you a bit more hope that there’s plenty more to come. The lack of any balls going over the fence, especially for a prospect billed as physically mature, does give some pause. He had 10 extra base hits, a rate just under 30% in a small sample. Not great, but not terrible either. The thing we can dream on is unconfirmed elite exit velocities. Numbers like 108 and 110 MPH ev’s are floating around on social media, and yeah, that’s easily plus power from a young 17 year-old. Tornes is a switch hitter and the majority of his at bats were as a left hander vs. right handed pitching. He had just 29 plate appearances as a right hander, and it was really bad as he hit beneath the Mendoza Line while never registering an extra base hit. Small sample size and all that jazz, but it is something to continue to monitor as he works his way through the minors. The large bonus, one of the more collectible teams, and decent results as one of the younger players in the DSL with some big time max ev whispers will all lead to quite a bit of hype for Tornes’ cards. There’s enough that didn’t jump off the page that I’m going to leave Tornes ranked in Tier 3 with the majority of the first time DSL prospects in this product. I am going to guess that he’ll fetch Tier 2 prices in the short term, and if he does, I’m going to sell into that. On the other hand, if the lack of home runs and poor performance from the right batter’s box keep prices reasonable, I wouldn't mind taking a few shots on his cards. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 7-9 (Both)

Baltimore Orioles

Tier 2

Nate George (OF, 19)
Fun. To. Watch. George is the type of player who plays the game with his head on fire both on the bases and in the field. It’s worth the price of admission. He was taken very late last year, in the 16th Round and signed for a way overslot $455k. He was only committed to Eastern Illinois, then a JuCo after attending Minooka HS (small town, big school) in Illinois, whose last player to reach the majors was Mike Foltynewicz. This was truly a lotto ticket pick, but it couldn’t be more obvious that the Orioles are looking at the best of possible outcomes already. He torched the Complex league, then torched Low-A, and has now been promoted to High-A to finish the season. He’s a very well built 6’0” who doesn’t have a lot of projection remaining – but there’s enough to work with already here that it doesn’t matter. He’s an aggressive user of his speed. Because he so freely uses it, it’s not clear if it’s above average or plus, but he’s an absolute nightmare to deal with on the bases – those 9 triples he’s hit this year are not a fluke. While his base-stealing acumen has quite a bit of room for growth there’s potential of him swiping 30 annually in the majors. At the plate he gets down into an athletic crouch, then inverts his hip a bit with a leg kick and keeps his top half calm. It gives his bottom half all the time in the world to stay connected, and with the plane of his swing being geared for contact, it makes a lot of it of the hard variety. He’s seen a few line drives go over the fence, but it’s mostly low launch angle at present. He could make an adjustment to tap into more over-the-fence pop, but I’d rather see him get to the upper minors to see if he really needs or wants to first. He’s on the aggressive side as a hitter, but it didn't cost him anything until he got High-A, where he’s now needing to make that adjustment so his quality of contact doesn’t suffer. There is already a semblance of approach though, and he’s run an above average contact rate everywhere. This is clearly one of the top names in this product. If you actually watch him play, that “one of” caveat may be removed for you. I like him a lot – there’s already the vision of an above average major league centerfielder coming into focus, and one with at least four tools. Hobby-wise, the problem is the tool that’s the most in question is power. All those hard hit balls tell us he can still get to average or better in that regard. But will he even bother with a swing tweak before reaching the majors so he can tap in? Don’t worry about the answer. Pay the price, enjoy the ride. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 5, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Tier 3

Jordan Sanchez (OF, 19)
Sanchez was an off-period signing in December of 2023 for $450k – such is the timing for many Cubans. He was already 18 when he made his debut in the DSL and dominated the league because he was just so physically superior at his 6’1” 180 lbs. There is still room to increase that physicality too in looking at him this year in the Complex. It’s undeniable that his best tool is power. Though his swing is on the longer side, he has excellent bat speed created by a huge leg kick and a great lower body transfer, and creates ideal launch angle. There’s even a bit of an approach at the plate that helps him get to most of the power he currently has in-game. But his hit tool is a massive risk. He’s an aggressive swinger early in counts and misses a lot. That huge leg kick is toned down with two strikes but there was still enough whiff to lead to a K% near 30. In total his contact rate was pretty bad this year – only 58%. But man is that slashline being near .300/.400/.500 a nice deodorant. Quality of contact is absolutely not an issue, and I wonder if he really loses anything by toning his effort down early in counts. That could quite easily lead to that contact rate ticking up to around 70% where it needs to be. He’s the type of player that can get away with that as he advances levels. The Orioles seemingly also see a need for him to approve how he attacks, as they did not send him to Low-A after he won the Florida Complex League MVP award. Defensively, he fits a RF profile well for now. Speed is not a big part of his game. Sanchez is a pretty nice hobby name, but even if his development doesn’t stumble, he lacks the trajectory of debuting at a young age because he’s still so raw. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 7 (Both)

Tier None

Elvin Garcia (3B, 18)
2025 Bowman write-up:
Some DSL teams have streams that can be watched on youtube and some don’t. And then there are teams like the DSL Orioles that do have streams, but you might as well not watch them. Sadly that means we are back to relying on reports and statline scouting unless you can find a rare away game that is streamed from a team’s feed that is worth watching. Unfortunately that isn’t the case with Garcia, who by all accounts is an exciting prospect. Signed for just $500K, the 2024 DSL results right now makes it look like the Orioles got a bargain. Garcia put up a 153 wRC+ with a higher walk rate (19%) than strikeout rate (18%). Even with just one home run, a .211 ISO speaks to the potential for more if development focuses on that aspect. That will require him to bulk up as he’s reportedly just 165 pounds, but tall enough at 6’2” to make you hope it is possible for good muscle mass to be added. There’s enough speed and baserunning acumen to get more than the chip in steals, but it doesn’t seem like it will be a big part of his game at maturity. Our own Juicy Jensen was effusive in his write-up of Garcia in his 2024 Top 50 DSL prospects 17 and under article back in September, ranking him 7th overall. Unfortunately Garcia only has base cards in this product, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him get autos in 2025 Bowman Chrome later in the year (fingers crossed). If you like to take risks, I can easily see this as a place to do it. Depending on the price, I might be doing some of that risk-taking myself.
2025 Bowman Chrome write-up:
It’s been rough out here in the Elvin Garcia fan-club streets. Garcia got regular run at all the infield spots for the Orioles Complex team and despite a .404 BABIP, 35 points higher than his DSL BABIP by the way, his final 2025 numbers look bad in comparison to his 2024 DSL stats. His ISO dropped below .100, and his strikeout rate more than doubled, from 18% to 37%. We were in on Garcia because of his power potential, and he’s still got plenty of time to grow into it at just 18 years old, but he hit just one home run in his 31 Complex games. That’s not a sin, assuming he kept his K rate anywhere near his DSL results. Since he did not, it’s time to pull the plug on his cards until we see if he can make positive trending development in 2026, either with the hit or power tools, or hopefully both. What little Complex video is available doesn’t do him any favors, so I can’t even hang my hat on that. A Tier 3 lottery ticket in 2025 Bowman, he’s now a Tier None sell until further notice. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 6 (Auto Only)

DJ Layton (SS, 19)
Layton was drafted in the 6th Round last year as a North Carolina prep and signed for an overslot $715k to sway him from a Southern Mississippi commitment. A switch hitter, he stands in at a solid 6’1” and is mostly upright in the box. He uses a small leg kick for his timing but does not really sink into his hip to access natural power at present. Instead he simply rotates on a flat axis and lets his hands create any upward path in his swing. It works fine for creating good raw exit velocity, but the angles of his best contact are not ideal. His season in the Complex matches this evaluation – it wasn’t good. He also showed a below-average ability in making contact altogether, as well as a passive approach. He just doesn’t look like a confident swinger up there. He does have excellent speed though, and stole a base on roughly a quarter of the times he stood at 1st base. In the field, he committed 16 errors in just 40 games, and some of that time was at 2B. There’s going to have to be a lot of improvement this offseason for him to even get out of the Complex for a significant time next year. It's not that he'll never be hobby-relevant, it's just that he doesn't have anything we like to latch onto at present. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Boston Red Sox

Tier 2

Harold Rivas (OF, 17)
A 950k signer this January from Venezuela, Rivas was a late riser to the IFA scene. He’s a long, slender 6’2” centerfielder who is still learning how to best use his frame. But the reason for that late rise is apparent – he’s become very comfortable taking highly aggressive swings, which generates excellent raw power to go with good speed and an ability to play CF. A righty, he uses a significant leg kick in his high-handed stance. The degree of that excessive motion will need to be toned down eventually, but we’re not worried about that just yet. His approach has actually been fine, at least in terms of handling DSL pitching. While there is significant swing-and-miss, he’s also walked as much as he’s struck out (17.9%). To me, anecdotally, that’s a sign that there’s a shot he can mature into an average or better hitter in time. When you add in that he clearly has the body for power potential and is showing it a little bit in games? In the Red Sox market? Yeah, he should be an easy Top 15 chase in the product. You should absolutely ignore that his batted ball results aren’t great, that he’s hit too many grounders, and that his ISO was only around .120. That’s not who he wants to be. He’s very projectable, and under the hood, things look better than they do on the surface. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 7-9 (Both)

Tier None

David Sandlin (P, 24)
David Sandlin came over to the Red Sox from the Royals organization in Spring of 2024 in exchange for John Schreiber. Despite strong velocity numbers and a trio of off speed pitches, Sandlin has struggled to put up the major strikeout numbers you would hope to see. Furthermore, upon moving from AA Portland to AAA Worcester for the Red Sox mid-season, Sandlin has appeared almost exclusively out of the Woo-Sox pen, making it almost a certainty that the organization sees him as a reliever at the next level. While in theory this move could maximize his fastball and allow him to hone in on one or two offspeed offerings to refine them to a point where he can become a high leverage relief option, this would also effectively remove any desirability for Sandlin from a hobby perspective. Sandlin hasn’t put up any particularly inspiring strikeout numbers since switching to the pen. Sandlin has posted a 4.25 ERA with 104 K in 103 IP between AA and AAA this year, but while 21 of those innings are in AAA, he has put up a 6.75 ERA at the level- obviously not what you want to see. While his walk rate is not an issue, it does scare me a bit that Sandlin gives up significantly more flyballs than he does grounders. If we are expecting him to debut for the Sox, Fenway is a less than ideal location for a guy who can’t put up insane whiff numbers or induce contact that predominately comes on the ground. While he has not been bit by the home run bug in the Minors, I think this would certainly be a red flag at the next level. Sandlin is also not yet on the 40-Man Roster. Perhaps Sandlin is a prime candidate for going to Driveline for the winter to maximize his stuff and refine his approach to be better suited to a bullpen role. Crazier things have happened, but I will not be buying Sandlin out of this product. - Will Jarvis
Risk: 3, Ceiling: 3 (Both)

Sadbiel Delzine (P, 17)
I’m not gonna lie, I chose to write about Dalzine early in this process for no other reason than his name. I’ve never heard of either his first or last name prior to this, except it being close to what John Travolta called Idina Menzel during the 2014 Academy Award ceremonies. That’s interesting to me! There’s nothing really special about his 500k signing in January, and he wasn’t all that highly regarded coming from Venezuela. But in looking at him (and there’s not much out there), you can see why the Red Sox gave him that money. His frame (at least 6’5”) is already developing in his lower half, and he uses that strength very well to repeat his delivery easily. There’s definite SP potential here – that’s plain to see already. His velocity isn’t great just yet (T93 as far as I could find), and there’s not much development to his pitch mix. He’s only thrown 9+ innings in the DSL. I don’t really know why Topps includes IFA pitchers like this. Delzine is at least 2 years away from a season with significant innings. I say at least, because it’s not uncommon for these pitchers to just never even make out of the Complex. Delzine should be as cheap as they come in this release. He’s a complete lotto ticket. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Natanael Yuten (OF, 20)
Just as Gretchen Wieners could never make fetch happen, I’m not sure Natanael Yuten is ever going to happen. He’s put up several seasons of “fine” production from the DSL through Low-A, but he’s just not progressing at a noticeable rate. Part of it’s because he’s never developed physically, to the point of his speed never ticking up and having to remain in an OF corner, despite longtime expectation that he could man CF. He was listed at 6’3” 143 lbs when he signed in 2022, and I’d be surprised if he’s gained even 20 lbs since. He stands at the plate in an upright stance with his hands high and his back turned – he looks a bit hunched, in an awkward way. HIs operations are very simple – I actually like the way his hands and hips fire, and he creates some excellent exit velocity. But when he tries to elevate, well, anything, it’s pretty awkward. His swing is very flat and whippy in its natural state. To top it off, his success is predicated on aggression. He needs those multiple swings per AB to get the ball in play in a meaningful way, as his contact % has never been above 70. It’s likely that he gets moved up to High-A next year, where I think we’ll really see some exposition of his weaknesses. He needs to gain good weight and learn how to use it rather quickly as he enters his age-21 season, but even that won’t solve all his issues. There’s not a clear projection to the majors – something we really like to see at his age. He’s hands off for me – a Tier None name that I’ll be happy to be wrong about. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 3 (Auto Only)

Chicago Cubs

Tier 2

Ronny Cruz (SS, 19)
Though he was not a highly regarded Draft prospect in 2024, there was always legitimacy to his being taken in the 3rd Round by the Cubs due to his highly projectable frame and raw power. A Miami commitment, he signed for an underslot $620k. Cruz was then flipped to the Nationals as the centerpiece of the Mike Soroka trade in July. I’m not being facetious when I say centerpiece – he has been impressive as a pro thus far; however it's in a raw-prospect-sort-of-way for now. His batted ball results were fine in the Complex – but that’s not what's important. It's more important that through a lot of immaturity and over-aggression at the plate, he also managed a .324 BABIP. It's also important that he ran a 76 contact% within that, an above average mark for the level. It's important that he’s posted the exit velocity and a batted ball profile that are already very clearly that of a power hitter. There’s a lot of refinements to be made, but his clay is the highest of quality – at least through the hobby lens, if nothing more. He’s not even great with his lower body transfer yet – a lot of the power we’ve seen is based on the strength of his hands. There is projection remaining to what we’ve already seen as good power. It’s likely he ends up at 3B, and he doesn’t have a lot to offer in terms of speed. That knocks him down from the highest of ceilings, but I’ll slide him to the back of Tier 2 – that’s really a statement for a guy who ran a wRC+ under 100 in the Complex. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Wilfri De La Cruz (3B, 18)
Tale as old as time. High ceiling lottery ticket-type player gets flipped at the trade deadline for a bullpen arm. That’s what De La Cruz’s path will start as, having been moved to the Orioles for Andrew Kittridge in July. He was the Cubs’ top IFA this winter, as one of three seven figure bonus signers. His bonus was in the top 10 of all IFA’s – $2.3 MM. It’s pretty easy to see why, with the ability to play SS and a very projectable frame. He stands in at 6’2” with a mostly upright, slightly open stance. He closes with a toe drag (sometimes a small leg kick) as he twists his upper body backward and has a slight flick of his wrists toward the catcher, wrapping the bat even further – he really generates a lot of torque. But it looks pretty effortless with him. There’s moving parts, but they look smooth and purposeful. Should he remove those? Maybe. But there weren’t any batted ball issues. His contact rate was squarely above average for the level. He didn’t look overmatched in any AB that I saw, and the numbers saying he has a passive approach, based on what I saw, was just him being pitched around. He is a known commodity, and not one pitchers want to attack. But he had 0 HR? That’s absolutely not predictive – an anomaly that if it creates any buying opportunity in the hobby, should be jumped on immediately. He has significant pop, and projects for more – perhaps much more. His swing is one that generates a lot of natural loft, and there’s no reason to change that. On the defensive side he was given full run at SS on both of the teams he played on. He could stay there, but there should be enough juice in his bat to ball profile as a 3B should he grow out of it. And that growth should be significant, as there’s room for another 20 lbs of good weight without sacrificing flexibility. Of course, that’d also kick his speed down to average or worse. But I think we’re OK with that! He’s not the highest risk of prospects coming out of the DSL, but there’s also a lot I’m choosing to project positively. He’s near the bottom of Tier 2 for me. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 7-9 (Both)

Tier 3

Juan Tomas (SS, 17)
Tomas was a late addition to the Cubs’ IFA class after the Marlins pulled back, and signed for $1.1 MM. He isn’t very physically developed, and is still learning how to use his body after he hit a late growth spurt that left him at 6’2”. That’s great for his projectability, and gives him a better chance to stick at SS! There is very limited video of him – no game footage, only BP, so I’ll be brief with what he looks like. HIs hands start high but drift low, which leads to a flatter swing plane. Based on what I saw he also fires his hands and hips at the same time, which tends to sap power. His performance in the DSL indicated there’s lots of progress to be made yet with his pitch identification – there was a lot of whiff and quality of contact issues. I would not read much into his high BB% – what can we really take away from a 20% mark? He wasn’t overly passive, but there’s too many unknowns there. What is known is that he’s got a long, long way to go with his development. There is some promise of an exciting prospect though, with (for now) an above average ceiling on defense and speed that could grow as he fills out his body. He certainly will not be a quick riser, starting next year when I expect that he’ll repeat the DSL. Any Cubs fans like gambling? Take a chance on the lowest priced of their three seven-figure IFAs! - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Juan Cabada (3B, 17)
Cabada signed for $1.5 MM this winter from the Dominican, second in the Cubs’ IFA class. He’s a smaller bodied, physically mature player already. That’s why he’s moved off of SS already – it’s clear that despite good speed, he does not and will not have the range for the position. To me he already looks like a player who’s close to maxed out physically – I don’t know if there’s a lot of projection remaining. So all the growth from here will have to be in the mental side. That might be OK, because he does have some solid building blocks. His approach at the plate is one that has some chase, but mostly there’s just little timing things and issues picking up spin that lead to his contact rate being just average. He starts with a slightly open stance with his weight loaded into his back hip, then uses a leg kick with a hand waggle as the pitcher comes home. It’s a fairly simple operation. The smaller levers should allow for a lot of contact with his swing. As I’ve indicated his raw power has already likely peaked, but there’s potential that his game power could tick up as he develops more of a feel for the barrel. That’s a pretty solid statement for a guy who already had decent batted ball results, hitting .287 with 13 XBH. I think Cabada, for a DSL prospect, is fairly safe, but with a lower ceiling. But I don’t know if there’s enough juice to get him to having a MLB ceiling quite yet. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Tier None

Yahil Melendez (SS, 20)
When the Cubs took a shot on Melendez in the 7th Round in 2023, they were getting a young-for-the-class projectable SS who needed a lot of work. That’s proved mostly to be the case, although he is trending more towards being a 3B full-time. He still needs a lot of work all-around, but after a little time in Extended Spring Training, he did advance to Low-A in early May this year. He's dealt with some injuries, but between them he has taken a step back this year. His biggest red flag is that he’s always run a low contact rate – and this year it’s sub 60%. That's a hard, hard mark to improve enough from. He gets on base at a good clip, but it’s just because of a passive approach, and the K% in the mid-30’s says he doesn’t exactly pick the right times to swing. Passive is not working for him. His swing doesn’t look bad in total, but he drifts his entire front side forward when he swings, which is why he also hits for little impact. Often these lotto ticket picks don’t work out. I wouldn’t say Melendez is quite there yet, but he could be in that bucket as soon as mid-2026 season. He’s not a hobby name to consider at all at this juncture, and even team collectors should tread lightly. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 3 (Both)

Brett Bateman (OF, 23)
Bateman is a smallish centerfielder with no pop whatsoever. Even if we go back to his collegiate days at Minnesota, he only has 2 HR in over 330 games. This year only seven of his 60 hits have gone for extra bases at AA. Why he lasted until the 8th Round in 2023 is very apparent. He does have positive traits though. He plays solid defense in CF, and although he’s not an elite runner, his good speed allows him to steal bases when he so chooses. He’s also excellent at making contact. That’s the most positive aspect of his game. He’s very, very passive at the plate though, and that leads to a maddening amount of strikeouts (20%) for a player of this ilk. His swing doesn’t offer a lot in the way of projecting to power at all, as expected. Him “really driving the ball” generally results in liners to the gaps that don’t even reach the warning track. While he does rotate perfectly fine, his swing is all about getting his hands into position and reacting to the pitch. There’s little risk-taking – there is no “A swing” to be had. While he probably will reach the majors (which is a nice achievement for an 8th Rounder!), there’s an even stronger probability that he’s never an everyday player. Cubs fans can chase him as an ancillary piece, but there’s no hobby ceiling here. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 3, Ceiling: 2 (Both)

Angel Cepeda (SS, 19)
2023 Bowman Chrome write-up:
Cepeda was the third of the three top 20 International Free Agents that the Cubs signed for seven figures in the most recent class. And of the three, Cepeda put up the best numbers and looks the most advanced at this stage. I saw a couple of impactful at bats with at least one hit getting an exit velocity of over 100 mph. I could not find any info on why he stopped playing towards the end of July, came back for one game in mid-August, and then got pulled for a pinch runner and did not play another inning in the DSL. Assuming it’s nothing major, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cepeda having an up arrow in the next round of List Season. Prospect pedigree, a collectible team, and performing at an above average level in the DSL get him easily into Tier 3. Someone I will be watching closely in 2024 as I liked what I saw.
2025 Bowman Chrome update:
Cepeda won’t get a 1st Bowman logo - he was a Base Only prospect all the way back in 2023, but he will get his first Bowman Flagship autograph, and from what I can tell, only his second trading card auto ever with his first being all the way back in 2020 with Panini Stars & Stripes USA Baseball. If his Bowman auto had come out in 2024 rather than 2025, I could envision myself doing some bargain hunting. His season at the Complex wasn’t anything to write home about, but it was still on the trajectory we like to see - keeping the K rate under 25%, keeping the walk rate in the double digits, stealing plenty of bases, and putting up an OPS over .800. Now in his first pass at full season ball in 2025, the trend line has hit the inflection point and started its dive towards the x-axis. The ground ball rate at the Complex was almost 50%, but Cepeda got away with it. He’s putting up a similar rate in Single-A this season (48%) and let’s just say, he’s not getting away with it. I liked his patience at the plate back in 2023, but it’s become the dreaded passivity in 2025. It’s roughly a league average swing rate according to the stats but when I watch his game tape, it’s sitting back and watching way too many pitches. That ends up putting him in negative situations where he can’t impact the ball. It also leads to a 33% K rate this season. He’s stealing a decent amount of bases and I can see that always being a part of his game. I just don’t see the plus speed when stealing bases yet - it’s there, but not always. This is still a raw profile, and the results in 2025 bore that out. Cepeda has a long way to go, and I was disappointed when I took my first deep dive on him in two years. I was aware his 2024 produced good top line results, but was not following him this year, and I am underwhelmed. His profile has dipped from a potential starting infielder into utility player territory. He needs to lift the ball a lot more, get the K rate back to a more reasonable rate, and let his athleticism work in his favor. Since his auto won’t have a 1st Bowman logo, we can speculate elsewhere. He’s dropped from a Tier 3 in 2023 into Tier None territory in 2025. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5 (Auto Only)

Cincinnati Reds

Tier 3

Liberts Aponte (SS, 17)
Hailing from Venezuela, Aponte was the Reds top IFA this winter, signing for $1.9 MM. He wasn’t exactly a standout performer in the DSL, but there’s also nothing to indicate we should be downgrading him from that lofty signing status. He holds his hands high as many power hitters do, and does a good job of keeping them back as he sets his coil. He also uses his lower body well – it’s really good bat speed in general. He really looks to punish inside pitches and was pretty good at it – there were 16 extra base hits in total. Despite a low K%, his contact rate was average for the level, and more importantly his swing tends to lose effectiveness when he has to break it down and go to the opposite field (or at least attempt to). That’s the primary reason his batting average was on the low side, and his BABIP was very low. Aponte has only played SS in the DSL and at 6’0” there is a solid chance he could stick there, but he’ll have to work to maintain his range and speed as his body matures further. Aponte is squarely in the bucket of having good raw tools. But there’s no chance he sees full-season ball before the conclusion of Complex next year, and he’d have to put together an impressive season to earn that. He’s a good hobby name, but there’s no well-defined loud tool yet either. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Tier None

Jirvin Morillo (C, 18)
A DSL repeater that signed for just over $400K in the 2024 International Free Agency period, Morillo is the more lithe, athletic type of backstop rather than the chunky boy or fire hydrant archetypes that we regularly see. Reports after that first season in the DSL pegged Morillo as a bat first catcher that could be a candidate to move out from behind the dish because of his poor defensive showing at the position. I watched what 2025 DSL tape I could dig up, and Morillo looked competent behind the plate - I did not see the mess I was expecting to find given those 2024 reports. A couple of nice throws on target to different bases, including one that got a good runner out by a nice margin, shows me that he’s made good strides in potentially shoring up the defensive weaknesses. Looking at the stats, even if they aren’t 100% reliable, tell a similar story. He went from 8 passed balls in 28 games at catcher in 2024 to just 2 passed balls in 25 games at catcher in 2025. As for throwing out runners, he went from throwing out 8 runners in 54 attempts (15%), which is not great, to throwing out 17 runners in 46 attempts (37%) in 2025, which is fantastic. Discussion about Morillo potentially having to move out into the field in the future may become a bit quieter, at least until we get to see him stateside. With the Bridge League currently happening, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Morillo is currently getting work there. Per the transactions log, Morillo was promoted to the Reds Complex League roster in late August, almost one month after the Complex league ended, so it makes sense he’s there to get some Bridge League games under his belt. Defensive development in 2025 was great, but offensive development was much more of a mixed bag. His top line results ended up in just a 112 wRC+ as compared to a 145 wRC+ in 2024. He doubled his home run and stolen base output from the year previous, going from 2 home runs to 4, and from 3 stolen bases to 6. His contact rate jumped from 63% to 73% which is a positive, but he went way too overboard on keeping the ball off the ground, with just a 22% ground ball rate. Putting the ball in the air is typically what we want to see, but a change this extreme (assuming it’s a swing/launch angle modification) often leads to being exploited by good pitching. Ultimately this is a lot of mildly interesting to mildly underwhelming stuff going on here - as I said earlier, a mixed bag, with nothing standing out in a big way positively or negatively. And that means we can safely ignore Morillo in the short term, especially with him only having base cards in the product. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 4-6 (Base Only)

Enry Torres (C, 17)
Torres is a well-regarded Venezuelan catcher who signed this winter for 800 K. He’s a bit smaller in stature at 5’10”, and his body, though still having a way to go, appears to be headed towards a typical catcher’s frame. Although his defensive numbers don’t stand out this year, that’s where his best future tools lie. On the offensive side, where we care the most hobby-wise, there’s not much impact at all present, which has woefully affected his performance in the DSL. He only had one XBH and a .235 BABIP with a neutral batted ball profile. It’s easy to see why. Though he starts with his hands high, they drift down and back in his setup, which includes a high leg kick and hips that drift forward quite a bit. It's a long swing. His swing is very slappy, with his hands and hips firing at the same time, which curtails any power potential. He is driving the ball to all fields, but not with impact. There’s just a long way to go for Torres on both sides of the ball. His contact-ability should be sticky throughout his development, so how his defense progresses will define his promotions. But it will be developing some kind of power will determine his projection to the majors. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 3-5 (Both)

Cleveland Guardians

Tier 3

Juneiker Caceres (OF, 18)
The Venezuelan Caceras (his first name is you-NAY-cur) signed for just 300k in 2024, and is he ever looking like he’s worth it already. Last year he was one of the better hitters in the DSL, posting a .425 OBP with more BB than K. This year he was one of the best hitters in the Complex, posting a .419 OBP with more BB than K. His contact rate through it all has been elite as well – it was in the 80’s even after he was promoted to full season ball. That’s the 95th percentile for a level that he’s two years young for. He uses all fields well already with intent and an ability to sting the ball anywhere. His operations in that left-handed batters box are as smooth as they come after his big leg kick – it’s flat and whippy but he obviously manipulates the barrel very well. When he gets into his pop to the pull side, it’s a thing of beauty. Because of that flatter plane, there’s not much of those well struck balls going over the fence. He’s only 5’10” with shorter levers, so it really makes sense for him to keep his swing just the way it is and hope that with more physical maturity he can get to double digit HR. There is absolutely no doubt that his best tool is his hit – and you don’t have to fix your mouth too much at all to say it has plus projection. Since he was promoted to Low-A, he’s mostly played CF, which is interesting, but it’s probably not a long term home since his speed is only average, and likelier to tick down than up. Caceres certainly has the ability to be a quick mover though the system – but this is the Guardians. They seem to grow players like this with a strong ability to hit (in the minors at least) on trees. Can he differentiate himself enough from other players of his ilk to keep earning promotions? That’s something that’s truly impossible to know. Just being in the weak hobby market that is Cleveland is another general negative – except for Guardians fans! This is your guy in this product. Go get him, there’s nobody else close. He’s at the very top of Tier 3 for me. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 7 (Both)

Heins Brito (SS, 17)
Signed for $825k this winter, Brito is a very slight-framed 6’0” who very clearly has not grown into his body yet. That affected his bottom line in the DSL greatly, including his ability to effectively show off his speed and defense, which are supposed to be positive assets. At the plate he was absolutely not lost. He steps in with intent and determination, slouching his shoulders with his bat set upon them. He then just strides out without a leg kick, keeps his hands statuesque, and swings from the angle that he’s holding the bat just above those shoulders. It couldn’t be a more simple operation. He even uses his lower half pretty well. I think it’s completely fair to ignore the batted ball results with Brito. Look at the 75% contact rate. Look at the K% under 20%. He might repeat the DSL next year, but make no mistake, there’s a solid toolkit to build from here. There is absolutely no way of knowing what he’ll look like in two years in any aspect of his game, but it certainly won't be who he is now. Hobby-wise, I at least would expect the buy-in to be on the low end (with the Guardians discount also being a factor here). He’s a lotto ticket I’d be interested in if the price is right. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Tier None

Hiverson Lopez (C, 17)
Lopez was signed for 900k this winter from Venezuela, good for tops in the Guardians’ IFA class. He has the strong physique that the position demands with wide shoulders, and his body has not yet settled into the prototype body yet either. There’s a solid chance he could retain some athleticism as he develops. But don't mistake athleticism for speed. No no, he’s not an aggressive runner, and that’ll likely stick or get worse. I just mention the athleticism because it speaks to some of the ceiling he could have defensively. He’s a bit raw for now as a receiver, but there’s obviously plenty of time to develop. At the plate the thing that stands out most is his swing plane that’s very flat and whippy, even though he uses his lower half well. There’s just not a lot of smoothness up there, and it’s led to a below average contact rate and a lot of weak contact. He only managed 4 XBH in 46 games in the DSL. Coming from that physique, you’d really expect more. I do worry that it’s lack of flexibility that’s causing him to have such a flat swing, which would just be a conditioning adjustment. Anyway – good body, hasn’t translated to baseball yet, the raw catcher archetype is never a good one for the hobby, and he's a Guardian. Easily Tier None hobby-wise. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Auto Only)

Colorado Rockies

Tier 3

Kyle Karros (3B, 23)
Just in the nick of time, Kyle Karros is getting his 1st Bowman card. Debuting on August 8th, Karros won’t get his baseball rookie card until 2026, so expect to see him in prospect releases through the 2025 product cycle. Strangely, he’s not had any cards since his prep days outside of minor league team sets and with his call-up, a few Topps Now cards. One of those prep cards was actually a Bowman insert - the Under Armour National insert set in 2019 Bowman. He could also be found in 2019 Leaf Perfect Game products. And that’s it, which I find somewhat strange given his legacy status as the son of a really popular Dodgers player of the 90’s who is the current all time home run leader for the franchise while in Los Angeles, being more well-regarded as a prospect than his older brother Jared, and being a 5th round pick. Topps sneaks him under the wire, but still strangely only gives him autos. With his cards being in less supply because of that, there is some artificial price inflation likely to occur. As for the skillset, Karros is a hit over power offensive profile with some chip-in speed and a solid defender at third base. He regularly checked in with plus contact rates in the minors - 91% zone contact in Triple-A in 2025, and the majors - 87% zone contact at the MLB level so far in 2025. He has decent zone recognition with his outside zone swing in the 26% - 28% range. Combine that with the high contact rate to spoil pitches he can’t put in play, and you get the bonus of high walk rates. Karros’ flat swing doesn’t project much over the fence home run power in his future. He did hit 15 home runs in Single-A in 2024, but that was more aided by playing in the hitter friendly California League than by Karros’ swing and approach. Karros should have no problem being the everyday third baseman of the Rockies for the next five years, hitting for a high average, spreading the ball all over the field and aided by the spacious home field. A .280-.300 hitter with 10-15 home park-aided home runs on a second division team is almost always going to be a Tier 3 player. In the short term, until his card supply increases and with his legacy status, I could see Tier 2 prices being spent. I’d take advantage and sell into that demand. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 1, Ceiling: 6 (Auto Only)

Cristian Arguelles (OF, 18)
Arguelles signed last year for 700k. Though he put up a very good K% and an excellent contact rate, he showed no sign of being physical enough, so he repeated the DSL this year. But oh baby did he ever. His slash for the season has been .422/.528/.652 – marks that were consistent throughout. My sources tell me that is, in fact, good by any measure. So what’s driving the change from a .035 ISO to a .230 ISO? A sacrifice in contact rate? Nope, that’s still over 80%. A change in batted ball profile? A little – there are more line drives and less grounders this year. Mostly, the change has been driven by a change in his body. This year he looks to have gained around 15 lbs of man-muscles. Still plenty of room in his (at least 6’0” frame) to grow, but this should be enough to get him stateside and into full-season ball shortly. He stands at the plate in a deep athletic crouch with his hands on the lower side, and uses a leg kick while simultaneously lifting his back elbow – the operations are pretty smooth. In my looks that line-drive centric batted ball profile does not lie – he’s willing to drive it to the opposite field with solid exit velocity, or adapt in unfavorable counts and use his excellent swing plane and feel for the barrel to drop hits in front of the outfielders. His power is mostly to the pull side right now, but those opposite field liners look primed to yield better results as he matures more. At present he plays CF, and while that indicates average or better speed, he’s not aggressive on the basepaths. Will the Rockies be aggressive and promote him directly to Fresno next year? That’s the biggest question for me. The numbers this year dictate he should be able to handle the level – perhaps easily. His hit tool looks great, but I’m not quite sure how to project the rest of his game just yet. With the caveat that I may be punishing him too heavily for being a repeater in the DSL, I’m leaving him at the top of Tier 3. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Tier None

Alessander De La Cruz (OF, 19)
An interesting background story, De La Cruz was born in Berlin but signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2023 for $650K. In future WBC events, don’t be surprised to see De La Cruz suit up for the German National Team. A rough first year in the DSL in 2023 led to a repeat year in 2024, which was a LOT more successful, going from a 93 wRC+ to a 146 wRC+ and cutting his K rate down from 34% to 19%. There was some sleeper potential hope with De La Cruz making his stateside debut at the Complex in 2025. Unfortunately, that did not come to fruition as the K rate returned to 34% and the groundball rate skyrocketed to 57%. Listed at 6’1”, De La Cruz hits with a wide stance and gets into a relatively deep crouch with a small front foot toe tap as he transfers his weight to his back foot and swings through the zone. It looks like there is some above average power potential with that swing and body composition, and we saw some of that in the DSL with 5 home runs and 7 home runs in his two DSL seasons. While the top line numbers weren’t as bad as the negative numbers I led off the conversation with from the Complex, a .429 BABIP did a lot of work to lead to the mildly positive triple slash (.269/.368/.408). With almost no tape out there of his defensive capabilities, we can just gloss over that conversation, especially from the Hobby lens. If De La Cruz can find that 2024 DSL impact, he gets into interesting Tier 3 territory. At the moment, it looks like that may just have been him taking advantage of the age to level situation being in his favor. A player to monitor, but he’s more of a backup outfielder/org depth profile for now and someone we can ignore in the short term for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Detroit Tigers

Tier 1

Cris Rodriguez (OF, 17)
Rodriguez is a Dominican phenom who signed for a whopping $3.2 MM, good for fourth overall in the entire IFA class. His power projectability, coupled with what he showed in the DSL, drips with massive hobby potential. He’s long & solidly built 6`3” already, but still has room to grow and should end up with the modern prototype athletic-RF body. At the plate he starts with his front foot inverted. As he strides rotates it out as a toe-tap as part of his timing – it’s a nice simple mechanism. His upper body remains very quiet through all of this and he really sinks into his back leg and tries to do damage with confidence. As a note to his not being polished, he still doesn’t always fully use the leverage in his front side. Right now he’s a high-effort, aggressive runner who stole home in the game I watched (he immediately broke from third on a throw to 2nd, which was wild). If that type of thing continues, he could be a sneaky threat on the bases even if he slows down as expected (with increased physical development). But power is his bailiwick, and it’s already showing in the DSL – of the 2025 IFA in this release, he had the best ISO (.256), best SLG (.564), and the most HR (10). But there’s also positive signs with his hit tool. Even though he’s overly aggressive at the plate, he has an ability to pick up spin and break down his swing to make meaningful contact out of the zone when he’s fooled. That’s not to say he has a good contact rate at present, but it is close to average for the level – I think that he will absolutely make enough contact in the future. I don’t need to tell you all much more about Rodriguez – he’s an obvious Top 5 name in the set, everyone knows it, and I have the confidence in bumping him to Tier 1 even with all the risk he still has. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 8-10 (Both)

Tier None

Justice Bigbie (OF, 26)
Bigbie has been playing professionally since being drafted in the 19th Round out of Western Carolina in 2021. He’s escaped the late round stigma to be sure. He’s made it to the high minors and even had a fantastic season there – but it was back in 2023. If he was getting cards in even 2024 Bowman, there would be some interest from at least team collectors. But 2024, at AAA, was a major struggle in terms of hitting for impact, and he was sent back to AA to work this year. It doesn’t matter except for the fact that it just confirmed his status as a high-end organizational filler. What he lacks in tools he makes up for in moxy though – he’s a gamer, generally doing the right thing from a swing and defensive perspective. He doesn’t have any red flags in his profile, but there’s not much speed or defensive versatility. He hits the ball plenty hard with an average amount of regularity, but his swing has never been geared for power – it’s always been low launch angle. I think he’ll eventually get called up to the majors, but it’s just really hard to envision him ever getting significant playing time in the majors. Team collectors should love him – just don't spend too much. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 2, Ceiling: 2 (Both)

Nestor Miranda (3B, 19)
Last year Miranda was the Tigers top IFA, signing for $1.5 MM based on his power potential. Even though he was older for the period, he started his 2024 season late, and he was also very, very bad. This year he’s turned things around a bit in his DSL repeat, but it’s also worth noting that he has not played the field – he’s only DH’d. He’s always been a 3B-only, and indeed he already has a thicker, mature body. Man that's already a lot of bad, bad, bad from a hobby perspective, right? At the plate he starts with his hands high and drifts them down as he strides. He also employs what I’d call a hesitation leg kick? He gets very low early in that kick, but pops up a bit before he puts his front foot down and gets into his swing. His swing looks really awkward, and all these moving parts are clearly a major part of that. However, he does keep his hands back well. When he makes contact, there’s some excellent exit velocity to be had. Power is his calling card, and he is slugging around .500! The thing is – he’s already 19 and still playing at the lowest of levels, and doesn’t seem to have a position at present. If that’s not enough, he whiffs on 40% of his swings. With as much of an investment as the Tigers put into him, you’d be hard pressed to call him anything other than a disappointment thus far. I think he’ll go stateside next year where coaches can hope to help him continue to access his excellent raw power at the higher level, but the flags here are bright red. He’s walking a tightrope to even have a projection to the high minors. If you got this far in this blurb congratulations on reading one of the rougher writeups I've done for this piece. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Houston Astros

Tier 1

Kevin Alvarez (OF, 17)
Alvarez is a high-projectability Cuban who was the Astros’ top IFA this winter, signing for $2 MM. He comes in at 6’4” with a lot of room yet to grow into his body, but he’s already showing signs that he could be a 5-tool talent. He stands in the box with an upright, open stance then just hinges closed when he strides, which sets him into his back hip with little effort. There’s minimal movement in his upper half, and little effort in his swing. It just looks really easy for him. He’s already showing that he knows being quick to the ball is the most important thing for his large frame, and everything else will be built around that. He found the barrel quite often in the DSL. He smacked 17 XBH in 47 games with a LD% that was top 5 in the league. What’s even more impressive is a contact rate that was already over 80% – in the DSL that's a mark of many hitters who end up with above average or better hit tools. That was backed up by a K% under 10 as well. It’s really, really easy to see how this guy could be a superstar. The ceiling of his speed and defense are yet to be determined by how his body develops, but they could both be average or better assets. As he progresses, it’ll be important to monitor whether he can swing with a little more effort in select counts – whether he can find a way to really get into using his levers to launch. He uses his body well already – just not for over-the-fence power yet. I love that he’s building through the hit tool. I think the power has quite a high ceiling – we can dream of a player who’s 55’s across the board without being on crazy pills. I think he’s a Tier 1 name, and could head straight to Low-A next year pretty easily. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 8-10 (Both)

Tier 3

Miguel Ullola (P, 23)
There’s always been high-K upside with Ullola (oo-YO-la), and always been a major lack of command. He’s never had a K% under 27%, and never had a BB% under 14% in any season. But he’s been deployed as a starter throughout his entire career, and has built into a solid workload. The Astros will surely take advantage of that in the next calendar year, if not as a starter then as a major innings-eater. Ullola has a fantastic fastball. Not for its velocity at all, but there’s some pretty amazing ride that when located up the zone, is impossible to hit. He compliments it, naturally, with pitches that move counter to that ride. There’s a sweeper & curve that sometimes blend into each other movement and velocity wise, and a change that he’s developed a lot more confidence in recently, that has more tumble than fade. All of those pitches have a chance to end up average or better. Paired with that fastball that’s clearly a plus pitch…it all comes down to command. If it doesn’t progress, he’ll be a high-leverage reliever long-term. If it does progress, man, there’s not really a limited ceiling here. But he’s just never shown it. However the Astros are a great organization at maximizing a player’s value once they reach the majors. He’s knocking on that door. I’m excited to see what they can do with him. It’s unlikely to be a linear path to being a stud starter any way you slice it though. For that reason, and the anecdotal relief risk, I’m both raising his risk and lowering his ceiling from where the optimists will have him. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 4, Ceiling: 6 (Auto Only)

Tier None

Bryce Boettcher (OF, 23)
This one is a bit complicated. Boettcher is currently a star linebacker for the University of Oregon – a late blooming 5th year senior in 2025. Because he has to maintain amateur status, he has not yet made his pro baseball debut after being taken in the 13th Round last year. There also wasn’t a significant financial attachment to him (just $150k), so he could still choose to entirely not play pro baseball. Should this football season go well for him he could end up as a mid-round pick in the NFL Draft. But as for his baseball skills? He’s a fantastic athlete, and won a Collegiate Gold Glove for his work in CF. At the plate his contact, and quality therein, wasn't as great as you’d like for a senior, but he also showed solid power. If he comes back to baseball he’ll probably have to increase his flexibility, because being 6-2” 235 is a tough physique for baseball (for comparison Giancarlo Stanton is 4 inches taller and only 10 lbs heavier). And any way you slice it, we’re looking at a player that will be nearly 24 when he starts his pro career. That’s the context we have to be thinking with from a baseball card perspective. There’s nothing definitely bad, but the odds are very much stacked against him becoming a significant name. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Zach Cole (OF, 25)
Cole has been around for a while. He was drafted in the 10th Round back in 2022 out of Ball State, and he hasn’t really ever escaped the stigma of that late round pedigree. He’s a valuable outfielder for the organization because he can definitely play CF and has a fantastic arm. Not every prospect who comes sweeping through levels can say that. There’s some dynamism at the plate as well, but the cost is immense. He starts in a deep crouch and sinks in deeper in his setup – he’s really looking to launch and drive as hard as he can with every pitch. There’s so much effort that he’s frequently using the entire side of his back foot to drive off of. He does get some great results, but his contact rate is also bad, as is his K%. It always has been. In AA where he spent most of this year it was 63% and 36% respectively. Cole has become a bit more consistent this year though, which hasn’t always been the case in his development (as he’s run some pretty wild hot and cold streaks). That consistency earned him a promotion to AAA in early September, then two weeks later after staying hot, the big club called him up in hopes that he can keep up the hot hitting for the playoff stretch. Because he’s a better defender than Jacob Melton, it could really be his time to shine in a starting role. Let’s see how he seizes the opportunity. But he is certainly a bottom of the order bat any way you slice it, and debuting at age 25 is never a good thing. The most likely outcome is that Cole ends up as a defensive replacement / bench bat for a few years, with a Jose Siri-esque ceiling. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 1, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Ethan Pecko (RHP, 23)
Hey, look, a backend starter with a diverse arsenal that the Astros will somehow turn into an extremely useful MLB pitcher (and perhaps fleece someone in a deal by flipping him elsewhere). All kidding aside, Pecko was the Astros 2024 Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Houston organization, which implies they were really happy internally with the growth they saw out of him. After 12 outings in Double-A in 2025, they promoted him to Triple-A where he's currently holding his own. It’s the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, so it’s better to cast a sideways glance at the numbers and instead watch the tape. He throws everything, and I mean everything, in the upper quadrants. If anything is below the zone, it feels like he missed his spot. He loves filling up the zone with all six, yes six, of his pitches. He’ll throw the complete arsenal regularly as well - there’s not a show-me pitch in the bag. It’s two mid-90’s fastballs (4 seamer, sinker), a 90 mph cutter, a mid-80’s slider and changeup, and finally a low 80’s curveball. And yes, the change-up and curveball were regularly being thrown up in the zone, as wild as that is to see. I’m not sure how well that approach plays at the MLB level, but it is interesting to say the least, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pecko can plow through some swing happy teams when he does make it up to Houston. The upside is probably a low end SP3 with the most likely outcome being an inconsistent SP4/SP5 type, which is Tier None with some Tier 3 upside. I’d be ready to sell with his debut, especially if he gets to debut against some of the weaker MLB lineups. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 2, Ceiling: 5 (Auto Only)

Caden Powell (3B, 21)
An Oklahoma Sooner in his Freshman year, Powell transferred to Seminole State College and the Astros snagged him in the 6th Round last year to sway him from his Oklahoma State commitment with an overslot 422k bonus. His decision to move to JuCo was a positive one – he led the NJCAA in HR with 32 and was 2nd with a .502 average. Ah yes, JuCo stats. If we just use them at their most basic level (as one should) you can imagine his best trait is power. And it is. He has a high-handed stance with a 6’3” frame, and he’s really good at using his lower body to leverage his swing. However, his long levers and longer swing path lead a lot to be desired from a contact standpoint. This year, there’s was some deodorant with his power (10 HR) and ability to get on base (12.4 BB%), but a 38 Whiff% isn’t going to work at higher levels. Even at Low-A it led to a high-20's K%. Also keep in mind he was a year old for the level and played there the whole year. Though he's mostly played SS to date, defensively he looks more like a 3B – which is fine – he has a prototype 3B’s body and has the arm, but there’s a shot he could stick at SS as well. That’s what gives him just a hair more hobby interest than other players of his ilk. But there’s still a ton of risk, and right now he doesn’t have an easy path to making it to the majors. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Kansas City Royals

Tier 2

Ramcell Medina (SS, 17)
Medina signed for just under $1 MM this winter out of the Dominican Republic. I really like his swing. He holds his hands high and uses a toe-tap to close his stance (somewhat) and set his rhythm while keeping his upper half still, then unleashes a swing with some great lower body transfer. It’s shown up in his DSL performance as well – he had a respectable 13 XBH in 41 games. Equally as impressive is his approach at the plate. In my look he was really good at picking up spin. He rarely got fooled by it even if it meant weak contact, but also he ripped a 97 MPH ground ball double off of an inside slider. He had more walks than strikeouts – some of that is passivity, but not to a fault at this juncture. I’m more impressed that he has an above average contact rate to go with it. So why didn’t he really show out in the DSL? I think it’s because he never truly gets his hip closed, and when he doesn’t square up, the contact tends to be on the weak side. It’s very correctable. Medina is also 6’1” with plenty of room in his body to develop. He’s got a good arm and was given full run at SS in the DSL this year. His speed is still developing, but he’s not aggressive on the bases at this time. There’s a great foundation to build on, and it’s not just all projection. His swing is already really good. Like all DSL players there’s a wide range of outcomes, but I’m not afraid to dream too big with Medina. I’m going to be aggressive and slide him into the back of Tier 2. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 7-9 (Both)

Tier 3

Asbel Gonzalez (OF, 19)
2025 Bowman write-up:
One of the more under the radar prospects in the product, Gonzalez is a name I expect to be hearing more and more about as he continues to use his plus speed to rack up stolen bases. As of writing, he has 25 stolen bases in 20 games - that puts him on pace for 300 stolen bases if my math is correct (it is not). That buzz likely creates some helium for his cards with the obvious comparison people will make with 2024 minor league stolen base leader Chandler Simpson. The hit tool shows promise - he’s got a good approach, not swinging at pitches out of the zone nor whiffing much at all in the video I watched. In the small sample so far at Single-A in 2025, he’s got a roughly average contact rate at 79% and just above average overall swing rate at 54%. The ground ball rate is a bit high at 47%, but he’s pairing that with a nice, well above average 30% line drive rate. Defensively, he should have no problem sticking in center field. Leaving the biggest issue for last in the discussion, his present power is non-existent. At the moment, he’s listed at a lithe 6’2” 170 pounds. The question is will he put on muscle, or will he focus on remaining on the thinner side to maintain his speed and athleticism. It looks like he’s got a frame that could add good muscle, and thus add enough power to be average in that department. In all likelihood, he remains a single-digit home run profile that hits for a decent average driven by BABIP and OBP with the real calling cards being stolen bases and center field defense. There’s a potential everyday player here even without the power, but that caps his Ceiling. If he ever starts putting up unexpected above average or better power numbers, watch out, because there’s a potential dynamic player breakout on the horizon. However, there’s also fifth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner risk in equal weighting. If his cards are cheap, I wouldn’t mind picking up a few, but sadly it’s only base cards in this release. Hopefully he gets 1st Bowman autos in 2025 Bowman Chrome.
2025 Bowman Chrome update:
As I hoped, Gonzalez gets his 1st Bowman autos in 2025 Bowman Chrome. There’s not much that changed from the 2025 Bowman write-up. An expected high ground ball coupled with unexpectedly low BABIP has combined to make his stats underwhelming outside of his elite speed. He gets on base, he runs. And getting on base hasn’t been as regular of an experience as we hoped, but he’s still got 64 stolen bases as of writing. 100 stolen bases probably isn’t happening at this late of a point in the season. It’s human nature to be wowed by artificial benchmarks like that and since Gonzalez probably doesn’t get to it, it caps his card prices. If he does get there, I still see some Tier 3 upside and possibly more in the profile. If there was any impact with the bat at all, this is a no doubt Tier 3 player with easy Tier 2 upside. All told, I’ll stick with my 2025 Bowman rankings for now. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 6 (Auto Only)

Blake Wolters (RHP, 20)
2025 Bowman write-up:
An overslot prep righty that the Royals gave almost $1M extra above his round 2 value in 2023, Wolters looks the part of a future mid-rotation starter. At 6’4” and 210-215 pounds, the SP frame checkbox is ticked. Another box gets checked with a mid 90’s fastball. And yet another one with a swing and miss secondary which is a low 80’s, vertical breaking slider that he can also locate for strikes. And that’s about where the boxes stop being checked. His third pitch, needed to round out the starter’s arsenal, is a high-80’s change-up that still has a long way to go. He doesn’t look confident throwing it, misses his spots, and doesn’t throw it often. The fastball was not missing bats and gave up way too much solid contact. The command is another concern with a 10% BB rate in just over 55 innings in 2024, and an unsightly 21% so far in a small sample of 2025. If I saw a high volume of strikeouts, I might be willing to forgive some of those concerns a bit more. If he was in one of the top pitching dev orgs, I also might be willing to preach a bit more patience. Not to say we shouldn’t have patience as he’s just 20 years old and has yet to pitch 100 professional innings. But for someone I had a higher opinion of going into this review based on name value and draft pedigree, what I saw in the numbers and on the tape had me significantly lowering that opinion. The Ceiling of a mid-rotation SP is still there, but it’s a lot harder to see, and sort of out of nowhere, at least for me, bullpen risk is now part of the conversation. We can find other places to put our Hobby dollar for now until Wolters can check off some more boxes, especially when he doesn’t have any autographs in the product.
2025 Bowman Chrome update:
Wolters lasted until mid-July in 2024 before Kansas City pulled the plug, ending up on the Royals development list for the remainder of the year. This time around, Wolters made it through the end of May before being placed on the Injured List. Preston Farr on social media reported back in mid-July that Wolters was expected to be back to pitching in about two weeks from that point as he was working his way back from injury. Fast forward more than five weeks since that report and it finally was announced that we see the 2024 repeat - Wolters is back on the development list. As tempted as I am to lower him from Tier 3 to Tier None, at least we don’t have a report of an injury that required surgery. So I’m going to bite my tongue and keep my rankings the same as 2025 Bowman. And re-emphasize even more than I did before in 2025 Bowman - do not buy Wolters until you see him pitching again, and pitching well. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 6 (Auto Only)

Warren Calcaño (SS, 17)
Signed for a hefty $1.8 MM this January, the Dominican Calcaño was easily the Royals most touted IFA. He ticks a lot of boxes scouts look for – switch-hitting, ability to play SS, and loads of projection. We’re mostly left with just that to work with, as his season in the DSL was curtailed by an injury after just 9 games. What he did in those games looks impressive on the surface (3 XBH, .346 average) and awful underneath (29 K%, 48 contact%) – so let’s just call it a wash and ignore it. In very limited video, there doesn’t look to be any major mechanical flaws in his swing from either side, but he also doesn’t use his lower half with much efficiency. His physical maturation also has a long way to go. There’s certainly a nice piece of clay to work with here, but it’s just sitting there not being molded at present. My best guess is that he will repeat the DSL next year, but without any specific news of his injury we just don't know. He’s a significant name with all the risk in the world. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Moises Marchan (C, 17)
Marchan was signed for 800k this year from Venezuela. He is the cousin of Phillies backup catcher Rafael Marchan, and certainly has a ceiling of eclipsing his cousin's station. It’s intriguing that he’s 6’1” and more athletic than a typical catcher, but also has a high defensive ceiling, mostly due to his arm. He’s nabbed 19 of 63 runners this year – that’s 30%, average for the MLB – but for the DSL that’s fantastic because pitchers are so wild. I’ll dance around his offensive game a bit. He doesn’t have a strong ability to use his lower half and leaks forward with his hips, which inhibits his access to power – but somehow he’s also running a .373 BABIP with a GB rate that seems too high to think that’s a possibility. He’s put the ball in play a lot this year despite a low contact rate. He’s on the passive side of average as a swinger, but his BB% is under 10%. He’s a man of contradictions that's a testament to his immaturity. I think the biggest takeaway is in the bottom line – he’s performed at an average level, and likely to tick up as he develops at the Complex next year. He’s surely headed there. His defense alone tells us that. If I’m picking one catcher from the DSL to reach Low-A next year, it’s Marchan, but he’ll have to solidify his offensive game before that happens. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Tier None

Corey Cousin (OF, 18)
An Oklahoma commit, Cousin (pronounced coo-ZIHN) was a very late round pick last year in the 18th Round, and signed for 350k (6th Round money). Being that late of a pick, there was no expectation for any debut last year. However, he also didn’t play this year due to injury – so if you're adding that up, he has not played yet as a professional. He’s a very athletic player who was a two-sport star at his high school in Louisiana. Speed is a clear strong point of his game, and there’s hope that his defense will be good enough to play in CF. Offensively, he has a bit of an awkward, stiff leg kick at the plate, his front hip leaks forward because of it, and he doesn’t use his lower half all that well in general. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pop in his profile, at present or in the future. But that was all from amateur footage – we shall see what he looks like next year. The good thing is that he’s young for the class and doesn’t turn 19 until right around release. An auto-only subject in this release, he’ll be one of the weaker names in the checklist, as he’s a bigger mystery than even most DSL players. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Auto Only)

Darison Garcia (SS, 18)
Signed by the Royals in the 2024 International Free Agency period for $800K, Garcia is a lanky contact-oriented middle infielder. There’s no power with his flat swing and according to our DSL guru, Alex Jensen, quoting Blake Snell - “This is a slapdick prospect”. He’s not yet hit a home run in pro ball, to further that point. There’s plenty of speed in the profile as he’s recorded 15 stolen bases in the DSL in 2024 and 18 in the Complex in 2025 - essentially one in every two to three games. He maintained an exceptionably high walk rate (19%) and an acceptable K rate (22%) at the Complex, but the ground ball rate ballooned to 58%. If he succeeds, it’s as a table-setter or utility type that can take a walk, make frequent contact, and steal 20 - 40 stolen bases. It’s a Tier None profile with some Tier 3 intrigue if he can show some impact or find a plus tool as he matures. As one of the prospects that does not have 1st Bowman base card in the product, it makes chasing his cards even less interesting in the short term. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 3 (Auto Only)

Los Angeles Angels

Tier 3

Gabriel Davalillo (C, 17)
It’s so hard to have a body like Davallilo’s and be taken seriously as a prospect. He stands at 5’11”, and is listed at 210, but he’s more like 225 – it’s a worse body than Moises Ballesteros was at his age. So for the Angels to give him a $2 MM bonus, tops in their IFA class by a wide margin, really says something about his skills as a baseball player. He’s a very simple operator at the plate. He stands with his bat waggling near-parallel to the ground before tapping it to his shoulder as the pitcher comes home, and only lifts it slightly up as he eases his weight to his back hip with a toe tap. His shorter levers really play well with this approach, and let him swing as hard as he wants and remain on plane with fastballs. He doesn’t have a great feel for picking up spin that I saw at this juncture, but doesn’t look overwhelmed by it either. He’s comfortable taking pitches he doesn’t want, even if it puts him in an unfavorable count. He knows it’s not going to cost him much – he ran an excellent 84% contact in the DSL, and had more BB than K. He also slugged an impressive 7 HR, and had 15 XBH total in 41 games. The power is even more impressive than the hit really – he’s already learning how to hit as a means to access his power. How that projects in the future is still a mystery, but it’s a great start. He’s clearly a plodder on the bases, and behind the plate he’s not ready for a full workload. He DH’d more than he caught this year. It’s highly unlikely he sees time in Low-A next year for that fact alone. There’s a very nice offensive profile here, perhaps better than expected. But it’s also fair to question how his body will project and even hold up as he develops defensively. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Tier None

Anyelo Marquez (2B, 19)
Well, Marquez was a notable IFA signing…in 2023 – he was the third highest in the Angels’ class that year for $600k. There’s been a lot of bloom that’s come off of whatever flower you want to call that since then though. He repeated the DSL in 2024 because he didn’t make contact at a rate that was good enough or impact the ball enough in 2023. While his overall offensive value improved in 2024, he still wasn’t impacting the ball enough or making more contact. In the Complex this year it got substantially worse. Everything else stayed the same, but with (slightly) improved pitching he got more passive – not knowing when to swing at the better stuff - which altogether led to a K rate that is much too high for a player of his ilk. He also does not have good speed and squarely projects to 2B-only. I don’t even know if he’ll serve as a good organizational filler piece for more than another year unless he makes some vast improvements to his recognition and approach at the plate. That’ll have to come first before he starts to develop anything resembling power. He’s an obvious Tier None name. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 2 (Both)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tier 2

Ching-Hsien Ko (OF, 19)
Ko signed out of Taiwan after graduating high school in June 2024 for 700k. His body has developed very quickly since then, and at 6’3” and 215 lbs, he already looks the part of a physical corner OF (though he plays CF for now). His speed is not a great tool even now, but it seems like he should at least retain enough mobility to be able to continue to play OF. His offensive game has elite projection though. He has effortless power and a solid approach, and it was on full display in turn in his MVP-caliber performance in the ACL. where he slashed .367/.487/.539 with almost as many BB as K. He’s largely looking to do damage to inside pitches, but since there is no selling out for his power, he’s versatile enough to lace balls to the opposite field with ease as well. He has a very upright stance with his hands set lower, and his hip can leak forward – it results in more ground balls than you’d like for a player of his ilk, but he still smashes them with some pretty great exit velocity. When he develops an ability to stay back and elevate with more consistency...man there’s some fantastic potential. He is still a work in progress. As such, do not look at his Low-A stats at all! He’s still running a high contact rate despite that higher K% and poor batted ball results. For the hobby this is a great prospect to dream of playing for a team that has a fantastic collector’s market. This checklist is so deep that he’s not yet a Top 5 name, but there is that potential – he’s firmly in Tier 2 – and I’d expect him to be priced to the moon and back. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Miami Marlins

Tier 2

Andrew Salas (OF, 17)
Salas is the most famous name in this set, but in case you’re completely unaware – he’s the brother of Ethan (and Jose), and followed in their footsteps of skipping not just the DSL, but the Complex League as well. Like his brothers he split his childhood between Florida and Venezuela and got the best of both in amateur development. He was the third-highest bonus in the IFA class after Roki Sasaki and Elian Peña, at $3.7 MM. That the Marlins moved him to Low-A to start his career is very telling of his maturity and floor. He is not yet fully developed physically, especially in his upper half. It’s played out that way for the entire year in Jupiter, and as the season has worn on it’s gotten progressively worse. He’s still approximating a statement of “holding his own” though, and that’s really something for a 17 year old. A switch hitter, he sells out a bit for contact, but it’s quite apparent that he’s also comfortable taking healthier hacks as well – the sellout is just his way of keeping up with what’s coming at him. His contact rate is sitting around 76% – above average for the level – but there’s a lot of weak contact even with 25% of his batted balls being line drives. His maturity at the plate is as-advertised. He doesn’t look overmatched at all, and though he’s passive now I think it's just because he knows getting on base via the walk is a solid option given his station as a youngster at the level. Salas really helps his team most with his defense and speed at this juncture. He’s not playing a lot of SS, but he has played a lot of CF, and it’s likely he stays up the middle in some capacity. He’s approaching 40 SB on the year, and his ability to threaten on the bases should only tick up. It’s hard to fully evaluate a player like this considering the immense challenge he’s facing. But he’s got at least four tools with above average projection, and it’s definitely possible that his power ticks up as well. Could he go the way of his brothers and his development snags? Sure. But he’s already on a fast track even if he starts next year back in Jupiter. He’s a Tier 2 name for now – not because of his lack of performance, but because he doesn’t clearly have the power we like in the hobby. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Tier 3

Kevin Defrank (P, 17)
Andrew Salas took a huge chunk of the Marlins IFA bonus pool, but Defrank was their next highest signer at 560k. Every time I see Topps include a DSL pitcher I wince a little bit, because a significant percentage of them never make it out of the low minors, and a vast majority of them take at least two years to build into a workload significant enough to truly project their pitch mix and whether they will stick as a starter. There’s nothing we can do as collectors than consider these guys long-term holds with little rooting interest in the interim. There’s a couple of pitchers like that in this release, but Defrank, to me, has the best chance to escape it and get to full season ball next year at some point. He’s already a massive hulk of a (man?) despite having just turned 17 in August. If he’s his listed weight of 202 at 6’5”, then I’m Taylor Swift. Jokes aside, he has an amazing arsenal for a player of his age with some deception in his delivery. He hides the ball out of his hand well, with a high leg lift and his hip turning slightly away from the batter. His ride/run fastball is the hero of his pitch mix, which he throws at an impressive 96-98 MPH (T99.7 in my look). At its best his gyro slider gets some great downward break in the mid-80s, and though his change-up doesn’t have much tumble it’s a solid 8 MPH different from his 2-seam. Both his fastball and slider have traits that match MLB average already – they just need (say it with me now) consistency. A few negative things – the primary one is that he has a little too much faith in his raw ability. He tends to attack the middle of the plate too often (especially with his breaking pitches), which leads to getting hit harder than he should. Command of his arsenal is a smaller issue, and it’s worse when working from the stretch. I’m perfectly willing to chalk these things up to being so young. This is my favorite pitcher in this release not named Carlos Lagrange. Being a Marlin and many years from the majors should be a deterrent for all but the most patient collectors, but if you’re willing to play that long game, it’s possible there’s no better pitcher than Defrank in this release. I'd love to put him in Tier 2, but I can't get around the DSL-pitcher thing. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Milwaukee Brewers

Tier 3

Jose Anderson (OF, 18)
One of the big 3 DSL performers last year with Jesus Made and Luis Peña, Anderson started the year in the Complex but made quick work of it with 7 XBH in 10 games. He then joined those other two in Low-A Carolina, where it’s mostly been a struggle. Anderson’s profile is quite risky to start with. He’s a power-centric OF without much speed – he's destined for a corner. His body is mature already with just a little room for growth. Keep that in mind. Anderson produces great exit velocity when he squares up. However, it’s a complicated set-up that includes a high leg kick with hands and torso that twist backward. That makes his swing both long and a little stiff. But he was so strong at those lower levels that it didn’t really affect his quality of contact. This is where he’s going to have to change things to continue his slugging ways. That setup is going to have to be simplified - no doubt - because gaining more muscle will likely just adversely affect the flexibility in his already-stiff swing. Can he still get to power with the change in his set-up? How much? It’s going to have to be significant, because as I said, there’s not much defensive value. I’m not at all interested in dicing up the specifics of how he’s struggling in Low-A – he’s only 18. Sure, the low contact rate is concerning, the high K% is concerning. That’s not why I’m lower on him. I’m planting my flag as not recommending him as more than a bottom-of-Tier 3 dart throw because I think he lacks projection to the majors at present, and it’ll be tough for him to gain it. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 6 (Both)

Kenny Fenelon (OF, 17)
The thing about the Brewers’ international scouting devil magic is that it only works in even-numbered IFA classes. With 2025 being an odd number, there’s no immediately huge riser. Fenelon was their top signee for $1.3 MM. The Dominican is 6’0” but doesn’t have long levers. He stands in the box with his hands high, and keeps them there as he lifts his leg high in the air for his leg kick, even with two strikes. He also wraps his hands quite a bit, which leads to a longer swing path. When he unfurls that swing it truly looks like chaos, and a lot of effort. Though he’s not an aggressive swinger, he gets fooled often and his contact rate is fairly poor. When he does make contact it’s with fairly inconsistent quality. All these things add up to a player who's quite immature at the plate with a hit tool that will struggle to get to being average. But if we’re looking to the positive, his 5 HR (12 XBH total) are an indicator that with development, he can be that player that earned the bonus. His speed is an obvious plus tool that plays well both on the bases and in CF. The dream of his developing into a 4-tool player is still alive, but there’s so much fog surrounding it that he’s merely solidly in Tier 3. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Tier None

Marco Dinges (C, 22)
Look, I like Dinges in theory, but I can't get him out of the top of Tier None. Walk with me. The Brewers’ 4th Round pick last year from Florida State via Tallahassee Community College, I wrote about Dinges in my Rising Prospects Without Bowman piece back in June, and much of what I said there holds true (if just because there was a 6 week injury in there). Considering where he was drafted, he’s enjoying a breakout season on the offensive side, but he carries every caveat possible that comes with being a catcher. He’s a developmental project back there, he’s not playing other positions, and it will hold back promotions in spite of his bat. He did earn a promotion to High-A, where he’s been just as impressive with his bat on the surface. Underneath his contact rate has slipped to a below-average level. To put it briefly he looks a lot like what Seminoles fans saw in college, but at a more advanced level. The potential for at least average power/hit is more apparent now than ever, and if he does that as a catcher he’d be an everyday major leaguer. He’s just got to get those reps behind the dish to find out if he can indeed stick there. If not, he played OF at his JuCo, so he could be an option in LF. But that also knocks him down the spectrum of deserving everyday playing time. He’s going to take a while, and surely won’t reach the majors as a young prospect. But for Brewers fans especially, he should be a nicer cheaper option at release. His success is contingent on sticking at catcher, and that's not a statement that's great for the hobby. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

Cristopher Acosta (SS, 17)
Another member of the 2025 IFA class, Cristopher Acosta was signed for a hair less than Fenelon for $1.1 MM. He’s also Dominican. He has the look of a physically imposing brutish slugger in the box, despite only being listed at 5’11”. He holds his hands high to start then hitches them back with his toe tap, which has had a poor effect on his timing. He also digs into his back hip too much and doesn’t create leverage with his front side. His swing in total doesn’t look too bad though. He has been extremely passive at the plate this year, but I’m OK with that since it’s more of a hedge against swing-and-miss – consider it a developmental step that’s letting him get a feel for seeing spin. His contact rate is actually fringe-average – quite nice considering his ugly surface level stats. There’s not much power yet, and projecting any with his current swing is a tough ask. Acosta has been given full run at SS in the DSL, but his lack of size may eventually push him elsewhere in the infield and while he’s aggressive on the bases, he doesn’t have great speed and will only trend down because he is already so physically developed. There’s a whole lot of tools that max out at average here, with a stronger likelihood that they end up as fringy or worse. That's, unfortunately, a Tier None name for me. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Minnesota Twins

Tier 3

Haritzon Castillo (SS, 17)
There are certainly more projectable prospects than Castillo, but if you’re looking for a guy who can do a little bit of everything already, he’s your guy. A Venezuelan signee this January for just under $1 MM, the DSL hasn’t been much of an obstacle to his development. He’s not a physical presence in the box yet and at just 5`10” he may never be – especially if he wants a shot to stick at SS. But everything he’s shown at the plate has been pretty great so far. He knows the zone well and rarely chases – it was an 81% contact overall. From my look he didn’t get fooled much, and when he did he didn’t look overmatched. It's a simple, contact oriented setup without any big mechanisms. While he does get a little overeager in his finish on occasion, it’s purposeful and has gotten him some excellent batted ball results. I think with a little more physical maturation, Castillo will really put himself on the map in the Twins organization as a hit-centric middle infielder who could move through the system quickly. Hit will surely be the tool to carry him. Everything else hinges on how he grows into his body. He hit 13 XBH in 39 DSL games, but can he level that up into actual power? It’s a fair question, but for now I’ll toe the line with the thought that it shouldn’t be expected of him right now. There's a Luis Peña starter kit here (though he does not have Peña’s speed). - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Santiago Leon (SS, 17)
Leon was the Twins’ top signer in this IFA period. The Venezuelan signed for a very nice $1.7 MM. He earned that bonus mainly on projection of his body, and a near certainty that he’ll be able to play a position in the infield well. He’s very comfortable taking pitches and working counts deep – that’s a great sign for his future. But right now? It makes him look overmatched. He simply doesn’t have enough bat speed to get to any impact when he’s swinging in those unfavorable counts he frequently finds himself in – it’s only been a .276 BABIP altogether despite a neutral batted ball profile. When the count does swing in his favor, it tends to result in walks rather than him really sinking in and taking a big hack. That is to say, he doesn’t have a feel to hunt for anything resembling power just yet. In his case I don’t think it’s necessarily a good thing that he has more BB than K. He just needs to mature both physically and in his approach. If he swung 10% more he would still be below average for the level. It’s a very easy fix. He just needs to figure out a method to it that yields positive results. We’re mostly going to trust the bonus on him at this juncture. I certainly see a prospect with some intrigue as a future major leaguer, but right now he looks like a better real-life prospect than one for the hobby. If he gets sent to the Complex next year, expect him to struggle. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Teilon Serrano (OF, 17)
A Dominican signed for 850k this winter, Serrano already has some physical maturity in his shorter 5`11” frame. If he were dominating the DSL, that’d be an awesome foundation to think he can continue at higher levels – but he’s merely been a hair above average, with some concerning underlying contact issues. His K% isn’t awful, and he’s not some wild swinger up there either. There’s a lot of deodorant in the surface stats that includes a SLG over .400 and 5 HR – there’s some obvious power here. He also has the deodorant of being an excellent runner, a trait that he uses on the bases well. Although he’s new to the OF and still learning, there’s a legitimate shot he sticks in CF. I’m going to pull back to those contact issues though – it’s only a 64 contact% thus far. Improvement on that mark for a player as physically developed as he (seems to be) is a tough road to hoe, especially when he’s already at the lowest possible level. I also didn’t really see any big flaws with his swing except that it’s a little long like a lot of power hitters. I think it’s an easy choice to move him to the Complex next year to make best use of his speed and defense. Hopefully the coaches there see something to allow him to make more contact. If not, he has the floor of never getting out of the lower minors. He's your typical raw, high-ceiling toolsy lotto ticket with nothing all that concrete to latch onto. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

New York Mets

Tier 1

Elian Peña (3B, 17)
David Stearns made his first major IFA splash move for the Mets this past winter, signing Pena to a $5 Million Dollar bonus deal, trailing only Roki Sasaki for the largest bonus payout for any IFA in the cycle. Allocating ~85% of the entire pool to one player, no matter the hype, is risky, but I think you’d struggle to find a soul in the Mets Front Office who regrets this move today. A “Metsian” 0-26 start to his career in affiliated ball was immediately washed out by an ongoing campaign in which he boasts multiple 3 home run games and has shown off his advanced approach at the plate, with a walk figure matching his strikeout total of 36 at the time of writing. Listed at 5-10 and 180 pounds per his MiLB page, and 5-11” and 170 on Baseball America, size is already not a concern for Pena. While the hope is that he can fill out his frame and push towards 195-200 pounds in the next couple of seasons on an affiliate level strength program, Pena is already roughly the same size as the man he could push to second base in his later years in Queens- Francisco Lindor.
Given the unreliable nature of fielding stats in the DSL, namely the lack of any data beyond errors, I will refrain from opining on Pena’s likelihood to stick at shortstop long term. Regardless, it is far too early for that conversation- I expect Pena to advance through the system profiling as a future Major League shortstop.
Admittedly, I have buried the lede on Pena a bit here by mentioning his dreadful start to his first professional campaign and not offering much on the following ~200 Plate Appearances. In a word, Pena has been fantastic. Now up to a 144 wRC+, Pena matches the wRC+ what Jhonny Level posted for the DSL Giants in 2024. While having the 29th best WRC+ at the DSL level among shortstops since 2020 does not seem particularly remarkable at first glance, it would be a disservice to not reiterate that Pena began his pro career with an 0-26 start.
Things truly get exciting when you dig into how Pena stacks up in terms of ISO (Isolated Power, or SLG-BA). Pena ranks 7th among shortstops in ISO with a .236 figure just 6 basis points behind the aforementioned Level. I do not want to get too far into what I imagine are not entirely reliable batted ball stats, but Pena does not suffer from “Brett Baty Prospect Syndrome,”AKA pounding the ball into the ground at a concerning rate. Pena hits 51.1% of balls in the air, categorized as fly balls, and another 15.8% are categorized as line drives. In a world where launch angle and swing path are king, these are encouraging metrics, albeit ones that at this level should be taken with a grain of salt.
Pena truly lacks any sort of red flag or facet of his game that is worth watching to date. It is VERY early on, and we have seen many DSL stars flame out shortly after coming stateside, however Pena clearly has the ceiling you look for when opening Bowman. It seems that the only question regarding Pena, for now, is if he can make that jump into A-Ball to start the year and see his profile explode, or if card owners will likely have to wait until 2027 for him to start making serious noise on prospect lists. Regardless, the prospect pedigree, the highly collectible team, and the strong DSL results all lead to a Tier 1 chase in this product. - Will Jarvis
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 8-10 (Both)

Tier None

Chris Suero (C, 21)
Though he’s Christopher in this checklist, he’s shortened his professional name to Chris, so that’s what I’ll call him. Suero was a UDFA in 2022, and has worked his way up significantly from that station and is now a near-lock to make it to the majors. He’s proven himself to have above average projection as a receiver, and that’s what will carry him to an eventual backup role. Collectors should have a little more interest than his being a "future backup catcher" though because he’s an excellent runner and equally threatening on the bases. That’s led to the Mets also giving him time at 1B and LF. So…you noticed I haven’t said anything about his plate skill yet, right? Yeah well…that's because he’s a below average bat. There’s a solid approach and is quite good at taking his walks, but his contact-ability is not good (it was sub 70% in total this year). He has some power and really hunts for it on inside pitches – it's resulted in a respectable 16 HR this year. Anything on the outside half he really just looks like he’s throwing the bat at the ball, then come what may. Pitchers are…quite keen on this fact, and he’s had a low average for several years because of it. It hasn’t stopped him from punishing mistakes, but those largely dried up once he got to AA. The catcher-with-speed dynamic is always an interesting one from a hobby standpoint, but Suero occupies the lowest rung of that category. He’s solidly in Tier None for me, but being in the New York market and close to the majors, there will surely be some interest. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 3, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Nick Lorusso (1B, 25)
Drafted in the 9th round in 2023 out of the University of Maryland for a $50,000 signing bonus, Lorusso can be proud of the work he has posted thus far as a pro relative to his draft position. As an older college bat taken in the late rounds, the realistic best-case scenario given his profile is probably a Quad-A type or org depth guy who gets on the 40-man roster or is grabbed in the rule 5 draft. Lorusso has positioned himself well, but almost certainly short of any serious consideration for a team with World Series aspirations. Lorusso is a solid hitter, posting a 118 WRC+ in 96 games at AA Binghamton, but there is really nothing about his profile that jumps out or necessitates a closer look.
The slash line is solid, but Lorusso will be 25 in September with an average physical profile and a lack of particularly impressive power or speed (7 HR, 7 SB). Lorusso does have 26 doubles to his name this year, suggesting decent gap power, but I struggle to see him ever suiting up for the Mets. His BB rate has fallen by 3.6% while his K rate has gone up by 2.4% year over year from his time in High A Brooklyn in 2024. The isolated slugging figure has also dropped by 56 basis points, so it would seem fair to assume the power is maxxed-out. His spray chart and ground ball rates are fine, but do not really move the needle in either direction. In terms of value, I don’t see much here. Given his age, there is really no world where his cards hold any sort of value moving forward barring a Cinderella story. - Will Jarvis
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 2 (Auto Only)

New York Yankees

Tier 2

Cam Schlittler (RHP, 24)
Chase Hampton died so Cam Schlittler could live as the newest Yankees prospect arm turned MLB contributor, or something like that. Up until the game that’s on as I’m writing this, Schlittler had not given up more than three runs in any of his first nine starts of his MLB career. And then the AL East-leading Blue Jays hung four runs on him in less than two innings, chasing him from the game. They did it by fouling off all of his nasty stuff - 24 foul balls in 66 pitchers is simply not something you’ll see everyday. If we focus on his month of August, the results were absolutely fantastic - 33.2 IP, 39 K, 1.60 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP. That will play! Schlittler has a five pitch arsenal led by a mid-90’s four seamer that will touch 98 that he will throw over half the time. This is the foundation of his success - he’s throwing it for a strike, either called or swinging, over 70% of the time - it’s simply stated, a plus pitch. His main secondaries are a hammer curveball and a hard, 94 mph cutter. A sinker and sweeper round out the arsenal, but those only make rare appearances. There is an element that Schlittler is getting lucky, and the Blue Jays certainly seemed to have found a formula, at least for one start, to prove that. Prior to the Toronto game, he had a 2.61 ERA in his 9 MLB games, but the indicators were all much higher than that - a 3.59 xERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, and a 3.84 SIERA. A walk rate at 10% probably contributes to that along with an almost 90% left on base rate. There’s proven challenges for Schlittler as he logs more and more innings at the MLB level as he’s been mostly dancing through raindrops, and he needs to take the promise of his cutter and curveball and really turn them into more consistent weapons. There’s also that potential for being a future SP2 for the most collectible team in baseball. If Schlittler was on a second division team in a weak market, I’m more likely to consider a Tier 3 ranking. With him pitching for the Yankees, it’s not even a second thought on whether to rank him in Tier 2 or be more conservative. These cards are going to be hot commodities, even for a pitcher. And because it’s a pitcher, I’d do the smart thing and take profits even with the upside. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 1, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Carlos Lagrange (P, 22)
I don’t know how Topped pegged this one. They determine these autograph checklists before the season starts, and at that point Lagrange was coming off of a mostly injured 2024 season, and prior to that showed no sign of enough command to stick as a starter. The raw stuff has always been fantastic though, and this year has been a complete revelation – the top pitching prospect riser in all of the minors. At his best Lagrange is up there throwing what looks like wiffle balls. It’s truly a terrifying thought for hitters coming from a 6’7” frame. His fastball – which has topped triple digits – has excellent armside run and pairs well off of a change that has similar movement. That change needs a little more tumble as a developmental step, but it’s a clear weapon now, and a new one this year. His slider is a beautiful sweeping offering that can break equally in two planes, or can be converted to more of a cutter. His command still isn’t consistent - when he misses his spots those hard fastballs and sliders over the heart of the plate still get ripped by those AA hitters. He’s either really good or just off. His ERA in the (seven) outings where he’s walked 4 or more is near 7, and in the (thirteen) outings when he walks 2 or fewer, it’s under 2.25. His high-K upside has never been in doubt, even when he was in his primordial, probable-reliever form. His K/9 this year is over 12.5, or his K% is 33 – whichever you prefer it’s impressive. He’s no longer a probable reliever, as he’s now built up to over 100 innings this year, with only that bugaboo of consistency to overcome. His ceiling is at least that of a #2 SP. If he really hits those command refinements, we could be looking at an ace. The Yankees collecting base hasn’t seen a pitching prospect like this come along since Deivi Garcia in 2019, and that was so long ago that there is no bad taste in how that turned out. They’re salivating. We’re all ready for the high prices. He’s probably worth it! - Max Arterburn
Risk: 5, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Tier 3

Chase Hampton (RHP, 24)
2025 Bowman write-up:
A diverse arsenal with at least one plus pitch and arguably more that can get plenty of strikeouts while a prospect for the most collectible team in baseball - what’s not to like? Unfortunately, injuries. A flexor strain to begin 2024, and then a hamstring injury when he returned limited him to under 20 innings on the mound last season. Full of hope to begin Spring Training in February, the flexor tendon issue came back with a vengeance and he went under the knife for UCL surgery (no word on which variety). This sets his timetable back significantly, with the most likely scenario being 2027 for an MLB debut. If Hampton had a full, healthy 2024, it’s hard to imagine how he would NOT have been in the 2025 Yankees MLB rotation instead of Will Warren or Carlos Carrasco. That fastball is nasty with some of the best rise you can get on a four seamer. The curveball is something he would regularly drop in for strikes, and he has a promising cutter and slider as his next go-to pitches. There were some velocity issues as well as growing command concerns leading to elevated walk rates in the small 2024 sample, but I’m choosing to ignore those as I don’t think he was fully healthy. A pitcher with this profile and full health is likely someone I slot into Tier 2 as a potential SP2. In addition, a prospect in Double-A is usually going to get a Risk rating of five at worst, and more than likely in the three to four range. Sadly both of those scenarios are significantly impacted by the injuries, recent surgery, and delayed debut timeline. As a pitcher with the deck now stacked against him, and not having 1st Bowman autographs on top of it, I’d look elsewhere for places to put my Hobby dollar.
2025 Bowman Chrome update:
The good news - Hampton is getting 1st Bowman autos. The bad news - well, I already covered that in my 2025 Bowman write-up. Hampton had TJ surgery in February with a fully torn UCL needing to be repaired. We should see him back in the minors in 2026, but I seriously doubt he debuts unless the Yankees are in dire straits. He should be building up health and innings in 2026 for a potential 2027 debut. If you can pick up his autos for cheap, and I mean really cheap, I don’t hate it. Any Yankees prospect with his level of potential has tremendous upside. On the other hand, that value isn’t likely unlocked until late 2026 or in 2027. In the Hobby, that’s a LONG time to wait. Especially for a pitcher that could simply not have the same stuff when he’s back to pitching, or perhaps is used as a trade chip like many Yankees prospects are often at risk of being. All that is to say, there’s nothing much to change here in my rankings, and you’d have to have a really long term outlook to spend money on Hampton’s autos. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 8 (Auto Only)

Sabier Marte (RHP, 21)
Marte was a minor signing back in the 2022 IFA period. He was always going to be a project with his very slight frame (listed at 6’5” 167 lbs), and that’s proven true. But his development has been further stalled by elbow surgery, which has sidelined him for this full season. We need to consider him a long-term hold, still, at age 21. That he hasn’t yet pitched outside the Complex is less important. Just accept the truth that he will be classified as a late-bloomer. I've spent a few sentences laying this high risk out because there is a lot to like here. He has a fastball in the mid-90’s with plus potential, and a change in the mid-80’s that’s even better. There’s also a slider that needs work. What’s even more intriguing for a player of this size is that his command is already quite good. That portends well for his future, assuming he regains it in his recovery and continues to develop in that aspect. Watch out for lazy analysis here from other collectors since he’s old for the Complex, currently injured, and hasn’t built into a starter’s workload. He’s a top 5 arm in this product for me. Especially for Yankees collectors – go get him. Should be cheap. Still, I’m hedging his ceiling here, because we haven’t seen enough yet. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 6 (Auto Only)

Mani Cedeno (SS, 17)
Cedeno was a big get for the Yankees this IFA period, by far their top signer for a whopping $2.5 MM. The good news is that he only just turned 17 last month. The bad news is that there wasn’t a lot of positivity from his first year in the DSL. Let’s start as positive as we can get. He played SS every day, and while definitely raw, there’s no doubt he can stick at the position for now. He is smaller in stature, but already quite mature physically, especially in his lower half. That’s helped him with his range in the field and to have some success with stealing bases. But his speed is nothing special, and won’t get better. His operations are quite simple at the plate, but frequently his leg kick is not timed well and his front leg comes down too stiff. Even though he starts well sunk into his back hip and stays there, that stiffness makes inefficiency in his lower half. His hands, also, come off on the stiff side with a long swing. There can be some great batted ball results – his bat speed is great. But much too often, as you’d expect, he whiffed. His contact was under 60%. He was also very, very passive at the plate, to the point where I wonder if he has any idea of how to pick up spin. His high BB% is a complete mirage in that regard. He’s just very, very raw, and doesn’t possess a body that projects well. But with proper coaching and development it’s possible he still gets back to what earned him that bonus. It’s just really hard to see right now. I’ll trust the process and slide him into the back of Tier 3. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Tier None

Cade Smith (P, 23)
This is not the high-leverage reliever Cade Smith of the Guardians – in the words of Yoda “there is another”. This Smith was a 6th Round pick from Mississippi State in 2023, and has missed a lot of time with a shoulder injury lately. I only mention this as a means to say that – perhaps he’s not fully back just yet. There were inconsistencies in his 8 High-A appearances, and he's now poised to head the AFL to try to build back to a better place. His command issues have always been an issue to an extent, and secondary to his smaller stature (6’1”) it’s the reason we’re not sure he projects as a starter. His fastball is a decent mid-90’s offering with ride up in the zone, and from what I saw he located it well. He mainly uses it to compliment his breaking pitches, both of which look like plus offerings – he’s just really good with spin. His slider is mostly a downward breaking offering with nice depth in the mid-80’s, and his curve in the low-80’s is equally deep but not as sharp. Even if you read breaking ball out of his hand, it’s easy to see how he induces weak contact. Being so breaking ball-centric, it’s also easy to see why he has poor command in general though. I think his path to the majors is through the bullpen, but he’ll be given another year as a starter as he works into the high minors. He’s a depth piece, and a good one to bet on making the majors. But as for being a significant hobby name? Nah. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 5, Ceiling: 4 (Auto Only)

Stiven Marinez (SS, 18)
Marinez was an off-period signing in December of 2024, where the Yankees had somehow saved $1.65 MM for him. He’s 18 now, but he just had his birthday in August, so he wasn’t really old for the level. He’s a little small for the SS position at 5’11”, but there’s also quite a bit of development left to be had in his upper body. He runs well, but by my look he’s not a burner at present. At the plate he kicks his leg up high and holds it as the pitcher comes in. That’s the beginning of a lot of bad things really. When he puts that foot down, his hip tends to leak out causing him to lose connection with his back half. He also tends to cheat his hands forward even before his hip fires, further diminishing his impact with the ball. The bones of a good swing are here, but his timing is so challenged that he had difficulty pulling anything. I really don’t mind that he was passive at the plate this year as he got his feet wet because he really wasn’t driving the ball at all, so “on base by any means” is a fair approach. I’m not all that concerned that his contact rate was low – he has to clean up that swing first. If it continues to be below average with a swing change, then I’d worry. There’s really nothing here that looks like a player who’s anything close to ready for full-season ball. I’ll refrain from any more broad sweeping gestures about his future, except that it doesn’t appear like he has much raw power. So hobby-wise, he’s on a lower rung and not a strong name to consider right now. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Philadelphia Phillies

Tier None

Mavis Graves (P, 21)
Graves was a 2022 prep draftee in the 6th Round, signing for just under slot money. He was in the Complex for the entirety of the next year as he developed a repertoire to fit his 6’6” frame. He comes at you from the left side with a fairly straightforward delivery – there’s not a lot of funk or deception, but it is easy and repeatable. He really emerged as a potential future MLB SP last year, racking up 117 K in 84 innings in Low-A. But he’s never had any plus offerings. He’s just good at mixing his pitches, and at his best induces weak contact with his 93-95 MPH sinker as well. What I’m describing is a pitchability left I realize. But his command has a ways to go to get to that status. He leaves pitches up in the zone where they shouldn’t be too often, and this year at High-A his BB% has backed up to unacceptable levels for a starter. I would say for now he only has moderate reliever risk, but the roller coaster of his development is on a downslope at present. His ceiling is that of a high-K backend starter, which should yield moderate hobby interest. He’s right at the top of Tier None for me. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 5 (Auto Only)

Alirio Ferrebus (C, 20)
Ferrebus was so impressive at the plate last year in his repeat of the DSL that they brought him stateside during the season - not a common occurrence. He then continued to perform well, which continued into this year to an extent. There’s a difference between “performing well” and "projecting to be a bat of significance” though – he has a bunch of warts in his profile. First, he’s not showing much of an approach. He swings at a ton of pitches, and the only adjustments he’s made thus far is how to swing at them, not if to swing at them. Against more savvy pitchers at higher levels, that will absolutely get exposed. After getting to Low-A (44 games) he had as many HBP as he does BB (6). He’s also not a great defender at catcher, and really looks more like a 1B in his build. While there is potential for him to get to enough power to stick at 1B, it’s not his best skill just yet. His best ability is finding meaningful contact. He’s running a near-elite 83 contact% in that 44 game sample, and the results have been better (over .300) recently. It’s always important to look at improvements over the course of season, especially if it’s a new level as it has been for Ferrebus. He’s a sneaky player to think of positively, as it’s easy to downplay him because of being low on the defensive spectrum. Indeed, there’s a large swath of outcomes that involve him not reaching the majors, but I do see a small-percentage ceiling as a power-centric everyday 1B. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

Nieves Izaguirre (SS, 17)
The Venezuelan Izaguirre signed for 800k this winter, tops in the Phillies IFA class. One can’t help but remark “oh he’s tiny” when you see him. He strands in at 5’9”, and his upright stance really accentuates that his levers really don’t look significant enough to do damage. He doesn’t sink into his back side very well, which leaves the rotational axis of his hips very flat, and he also keeps his hands high as he swings, which doesn’t leave his bat in the zone for as long as you’d like. It’s a swing that’s both not geared for contact and lacks impact at present. He’s clearly not projectable in that regard either. It's a negative that his physicality has already progressed in his lower half – there’s some room for increased strength in his upper half to be sure. But as there's not much more remaining to gain in his lower half, his speed, which was supposed be a positive but has only showed at average, is not likely to improve. It’s also hard to think that a player of this size will stick at SS. Izaguirre didn’t even have time to prove me wrong, as he went down and was done for the season on July 4. I think he’s a lock to repeat the DSL next year, where I’d like to see a swing change that has him more geared for contact and line drives. Being Ronald Acuna’s cousin (intentionally buried lede?) only gets you far, and with Izaguirre it’s not enough to deserve hobby significance at present. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 3-5 (Base Only)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Tier 2

Johan De Los Santos (OF, 17)
The Pirates spent big on a few IFA this winter, but De Los Santos was their largest bonus signer for $2.25 MM. He’s only 5’11” but he’s got a body that has great projection to showcase his best talent – speed. His game is built entirely around it. I saw him square to bunt three times in the game I watched, and intentionally pull a ball on the ground to first to get a runner home from third as well. He stole 34 bases in the DSL in 44 games. Yep. That’s a 125 SB pace. It’s a top-of-the-scale tool and he knows how to use it. In that same game I also saw him smoke a 94 MPH triple (caused by an OF falling down when retreating back) that almost became an inside-the-park HR (he might have been safe). It was a great showcase of his speed – I counted him at just about 13 seconds flat home-home. But here’s the thing – he’s not a speed only prospect. He ran a contact rate near 86% – some is bunting I’m sure, but even without it, it would surely be an above average or better mark for the level. He’s got a really good swing for contact, but there’s some pop to the pull side as well – with more development I can see a 10-15 HR season already even with his current physicality. He’s also patient enough to draw walks, and had significantly more BB than K this year. His hit tool is looking really good as a whole – I’d call it the most advanced for any DSL player in this class, at present. Thus far he has split his time between SS and 2B - the latter makes sense given his size, which should continue in his early development. That speed virtually guarantees that he'll be sticking up the middle. Hobby-wise, I think he’s so dynamic that we won’t be overly critical with the fact that he doesn’t have big projectable power. He’s at the top of Tier 2. If the Pirates don’t send him right to Low-A to begin next year, it wouldn’t be surprising because they’re the Pirates, but based on what he’s shown in the DSL, I don’t think the Complex would be a challenge for him at all. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 7-9 (Both)

Tier 3

Jhonny Severino (SS, 20)
Originally a Milwaukee International Free Agent from the 2022 International Free Agent class that got a seven figure signing bonus, Severino was traded to Pittsburgh at the 2023 trade deadline for rental Carlos Santana. Severino is a power speed infielder with contact concerns that has been exposed for all his faults in his first full season in Single-A. He was especially bad in May and June, but as the season went along he looked a little better and he trended to be more “OK” than terrible that his overall numbers would have you believe. However, I won’t sugarcoat it. Severino swings the bat A LOT. He’s got a 54% overall swing rate, which is in the 94th percentile of Single-A hitters. That’s not a bad thing if he has a strong hit too, but the problem is Severino doesn’t make enough contact to justify that swing-happy approach. The zone contact rate is 79% (36th percentile), outside zone contact rate is 48% (28th percentile), and whiff rate is 28% (28th percentile). Moving over to the speed component - Severino went 10 for 18 on the basepaths, a success rate of 55%. That should be much closer to 75% if he wants to regularly have the green light. The power ticked down in 2025 as he went from 16 home runs to 11 home runs year over year. All the data here screams Tier None, backup/utility player type. Yet when I watch Severino's video, I’m a lot more positive than what I see in the numbers. The classic dichotomy, and you can see what could be changed to re-engage that potential. Swing less, target pitches you can do damage on, especially fastballs, spit on the breakers, and get some base-running advice so that his above average speed can be turned into a high success rate. If he can take those next steps, I’d really love to have some of his 1st Bowman cards in my collection. This is a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None player that I wouldn’t recommend spending a lot on because of the high risk we’ve already seen arise over this season. On the other hand, this is a lottery ticket bucket type of scenario where I would put a small percentage of my hobby funds that I wouldn’t mind getting zero return on. And that’s why I’m pushing him into Tier 3 with all sorts of caveats. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 6 (Both)

Tier None

Will Taylor (OF, 22)
Taylor has been a name since 2021 when he was a highly regarded prep prospect, but instead went to Clemson to be a two-sport athlete. He then immediately tore his ACL during football season, which was a precursor to his next few years. A myriad of injuries kept him from reaching his potential in either sport. He did only play baseball in 2024, but still missed some time and lasted until the 5th Round in the draft before the Pirates took a chance on him. As a prep his best tool was speed, and he still plays CF, but he has smartly not been aggressive on the basepaths in college or since. One has to wonder if that will just have to be who he is. There’s still intrigue with his athleticism – the Pirates liked him for a reason despite underwhelming results in his Junior year. He has a more passive approach at the plate that’s always yielded a good OBP – it’s probably his best offensive trait. But now that he’s been in High-A where he should be considering his age, there’s been a bit of confirmation in his lack of feel for the barrel. He has a big leg kick that he uses to set himself, then unleashes a quick, whippy swing with hands and hips that are too synchronized to really do damage with regularity except to the pull side. He also hasn’t been able to make contact at a clip close to average. There’s still some athletic intrigue with Taylor, but he’s never shown it between the chalk. His risk/ceiling is a tough call for me. There’s a lot of bust risk for a Collegiate bat here, but there’s also the slight chance that he makes good on the promise of the 1st Round talent he was in 2021. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

San Diego Padres

Tier None

Deivid Coronil (SS, 17)
Signed this winter, Coronil doesn’t qualify as a top signer in the IFA period by any means for $900k, but he has potential to jump up Padres prospect rankings some with the projection he has – just know it’s all projection right now. He’s a rail-thin 6’3” 162, didn’t perform well in the DSL, and has already slid over to 3B from the SS position that he signed as. He’ll certainly be repeating the league next year to get closer to something that looks like a player with actual tools that can be applied to baseball. Though there are some flaws in his swing, it’s a simple operation – one that with development should lead to significantly more impact, but it’s a fool’s errand to predict exactly how much. Coronil has decent speed at present, but again we'll need to wait to see if he retains it as his body develops. Pitting the Padres' two Bowman Chrome DSL prospects against each other with Jhoan De La Cruz, there’s just a lot more physical development to be had in Coronil. But unlike De La Cruz, he does have the body for power eventually. Hobby-wise, I’d rather take the chance on Coronil than De La Cruz – a fact that is largely negated by the fact that Coronil does not have autographs. There's so much risk that I would recommend only picking up numbered parallels, and not stashing base or more common parallels at this juncture. But the interest should really be refined to Padres collectors. He's coming to a team Top-10 list near you very soon! - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Base Only)

Jhoan De La Cruz (SS, 17)
Despite making splashy signings the last few periods with Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas, the Padres tend to not have deep IFA classes. 2025 was one without a single big signing, though De La Cruz was their top guy with a $1 MM bonus. Hailing from the DR, he’s a smallish player at 5’9”. He’s a good defender, but it’s already apparent that SS will be too much of a physical challenge unless his body matures in the right way. He’s a good runner, but again lack of physicality has cost him much of his base-stealing opportunities. He’s well aware of his current physical shortcomings, employing a passive approach at the plate, though he does tend to try to pull the ball too much. I think the goal here is to develop physically first, then that pull-first approach will work better, and perhaps yield a better contact rate than where he is currently, which is below average for the level. His swing isn’t one that’s geared for power, as you might imagine. He doesn’t use his lower half well, but he’s also not strong enough to do so yet while still making contact – so he gets a pass there. There’s really a lot of “he gets a pass” with De La Cruz, but it’s also pretty clear there isn’t a high hobby ceiling. He was good enough to say that he probably heads to the Complex next year, where I'd expect continued milquetoast performance. He's a classic case of having projection, but not for things that matter for the hobby. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 3-5 (Both)

Henry Baez (P, 22)
Is it fair to treat Baez as an also-rans in the blockbuster Leo De Vries / Mason Miller trade, as he headed to the Athletics? Definitely not. Baez doesn’t have big swing-and-miss stuff, but at 6’3” he has the size of a starter (though a little slim) and has been building up innings for three consecutive years now. As he’s done so, his command has impressively continued to be good enough throughout. He works up in the zone with his mid-90’s fastball often, which sets up his slow curve and faster split change. The trio of distinct velocities really help him keep hitters off balance, and when he’s rolling they yield both some nice whiff and a high percentage of ground balls. And things have been mostly going well. Like I said – there’s a good show of command here. However, I don’t know if there’s a ton of hobby upside. He's not a High-K arm. Both of the teams he’s been associated with aren’t great for the hobby. But he’s a worthwhile flyer (and he should be fairly cheap) to see if he can tick up to having a mid-rotation projection. As it is, he’ll almost certainly make it to the majors next year at age 23, if not in a multi-inning relief role then as a backend starter – either way, a solid piece of the major league roster. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 3, Ceiling: 4 (Auto Only)

Kale Fountain (1B, 20)
Drafted in the 5th Round and signed for an overslot $1.70 MM, one has to put eyes on Fountain to see what his best tool is supposed to be, because he’s not showing it in games at all yet. Yeah…that 6’5” frame is a dead giveaway that he’s a power bat, and one that hit a lot of HR as a Nebraska prep. But he’s a project, because his ability to make contact was in question. Was, because he’s ticked into the average range in that regard. But the power? It’s tied up in his swing change, which is no longer the heavy uppercut stroke that it was as an amateur, and comes from a slightly more crouched stance. It’s still the same powerful stroke that’s fairly quick to the ball and looks a little bit wooden. He is staying on plane longer now though – it’s just a matter of getting to something that looks like the swing of a mature hitter. Then maybe we start to see some of that excellent raw power. I think the Padres did well to take him back to basics - he needed to start here to get to a point where he can realistically build from as a pro. I’ve broken down how far his bat still needs to come thoroughly, because it needs to carry him. He doesn’t have much defensive versatility – it’s likely 1B, LF, or DH. The ability to steal bases is there, but he’s not fleet of foot, and that should tick down as moves up levels. HIs limited profile concerns me more than his rawness at present, but both are strong factors that push him squarely to Tier None. If you're looking for a potential breakout candidate who will be very cheap because he hasn't performed well at all yet, you could do worse than Fountain. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Kai Roberts (OF, 24)
Roberts was a 7th Round pick last year, taken as a traditional Senior sign from Utah and signed for just $10k. His best tool is speed, and he uses it to great effect both in CF and on the bases. But does he have anything else that will get him close to the majors? That’s the question that needs to be answered over the next year-plus, but it’s not looking good thus far. His .057 ISO and 65 GB% at High-A go hand in hand with each other to tell he’s really not trying to do much damage at the plate. That’s OK by itself, but he’s also running a sub-70 Contact% with a K% near 30. To me he seems to be a fine bit of organizational filler, but nothing more. I’m not going to drone on about a player of this ilk, except to say that he should have a small market form the Utah collecting contingent. If not, he's the only truly DOA player in this checklist that's played in full season ball. Not too shabby Topps, not too shabby. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 1 (Both)

Seattle Mariners

Tier 3

Yorger Bautista (OF, 17)
Having a nickname like The Beast from the outset of your pro career is surely a way to set the bar too high. But he was certainly a force as an amateur in Venezuela, centered in some pretty massive power potential, which earned him a $2.1 MM bonus, second highest for the Mariners in the 2025 IFA class. Bautista stands in with a frame that looks more compact than his 6’1” height shows, because his lower half at present is much thicker than his upper half. He has a fairly simple setup with his lower-half, and a small hitch in his hands as he prepares to swing. There’s a lot of strikeouts in his game, and in my look there were a few reasons. He loses his balance often, which causes him to lose plane with his swing. More damningly, he does not identify spin well at all. I saw pitchers carve him up again and again with breaking stuff, both with called strikes in and chase out of the zone. Now, there’s a lot of progress that can be made from this – I’m not saying he can’t develop! But that hit tool is just going to be a bigger hurdle to overcome than expected, because this isn’t some long-levered projectability guy who just needs to learn how to use his body. There is little doubt that he does indeed have that massive power potential that he was signed for. The dude had 18 XBH in his first 53 pro games, including 7 HR. For someone with as much struggle as he’s had, it really should just be a matter of making enough contact – when he connects it should be excellent. He's a player that should be able to get away with 70% contact at maturity. He has other loud tools to like in his above average speed and plus arm in his back pocket, but at this stage they are less important in his development than his hit tool. His warts have me holding him in Tier 3, but there's a lot of upside. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Kendry Martínez (2B, 17)
Tied for the 6th highest bonus in the 2025 International Free Agency signing period, Martínez paired with fellow 2025 Bowman Chrome prospect Yorger Bautista to each sign for more than two million for the Mariners in this most recent cycle. Martínez was considered a top 20-ish International prospect coming into the signing period, and after a season in the books in the DSL, that looks to have been a bit too exuberant. The reported tools that drove that high ranking were the hit tool and the middle infield defense. While I didn’t get eyes on his defense, the hit tool was underwhelming in both video and results. A 28% K rate, a 51% ground ball rate, and just one extra base hit (a double) in 37 DSL games is nothing you want to write home about. I would not be shocked to see Martínez be a DSL repeater in 2026 unless there were some underlying issues we aren’t privy to leading to his poor performance. The prospect pedigree buoys Martínez’s Hobby rank in the short term even with the disappointing first pro season, but I’d look to sell into any interest driven by that pedigree. I wouldn’t fault anyone for holding given that pedigree, but that lack of impact with the bat, more than anything else, is a huge warning sign to spend your Hobby dollar elsewhere. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

San Francisco Giants

Tier 1

Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez (SS, 17)
The man of multiple names, Josuar was a consensus Top 5 International free agent in the most recent class. If Roki was not in that list, there is the argument that he would have been the top player in the class. He ended up signing for just under $3M, which was the fifth highest bonus (including Roki) handed out. FYI - Josuar can be found listed as Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez, Josuar Gonzalez, and strangely, on baseball reference, Josuar De Jesus (at least as of writing). Most publications have moved to just Josuar Gonzalez at this point, and that’s how Topps has him listed on the checklist. The skills are led by speed - Gonzalez can absolutely fly. A reported hand-timed 3.6 seconds from home to first from the left-hand batter's box in the DSL is unlikely to be completely accurate, but it gives you an idea of the speed when the fastest time from a left-handed hitter at the MLB in 2025 is currently Chandler Simpson at 3.95 seconds. While speed is the easy and present tool to point to, Gonzalez has the chance to be that five tool player with above average or better skills across the board. The most likely outcome is that Josuar ends up as a hit over power profile, especially without a swing change. He’s currently running a 50% ground ball rate in the DSL as of writing - no matter how much power he grows into, you can’t hit the ball on the ground that much and have an impact in the power department. He does have the bat speed and the raw power to make you believe that there is 20+ home run power in the future if developed properly - he recorded an EV of 109 on a line drive earlier this year, which for a 17 year old is bordering on elite. Defensively, shortstop is his current home, and there’s a good chance he sticks there. WIth his speed, if short doesn’t work out, he’s an easy move into centerfield, which won’t impact his stock much if at all. His current line in the DSL doesn’t blow your socks off, but it doesn’t raise any flags either. A walk rate and K rate both in very positive territory, each around 16%. Four home runs and 33 stolen bases with a .288/.404/.455 triple slash are all in the realm of reasonable expectations. Once Bryce Eldridge graduates from the Giants prospect list, Gonzalez is by far the Giants top prospect. Along with Eldridge, Josuar should be a consensus Top 100 prospect across the industry in post-season lists. There’s very little not to like here. Prospect Pedigree, a collectible team, and a potential for five above average to plus tools with the speed already double plus. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 8-10 (Both)

Tier 2

Bo Davidson (OF, 23)
When talking about Davidson, it’s hard not to talk about his path that got him to professional ball, all but giving up the game and then going the JuCo bandit and UDFA route to crushing the lower levels of the minor leagues. Promoted to Double-A in mid-July, he’s finally starting to see some resistance as the pitchers are just better at this level. Landing breaking balls and off-speed for strikes, and then setting up swing and miss pitches that start in the zone and end out of it isn’t something I think Davidson has seen regularly in his time in the JuCo ranks and the lower minor leagues. If you just take a look at his Double-A numbers as of writing - a 27% K rate with a .211 batting average and an 83 wRC+, you’d assume he’s a Tier None candidate. But everything up through High-A has been outstanding, and it’s been driven by his patience and plus power. He has the ability to hit home runs to all fields, and absolute smash jobs to the pull side - as one minor league announcer said on a particularly big fly, “that ball was massacred!” I have a hard time believing his measurements, currently listed at 6’1” 205. He isn’t huge, but he looks well put together and at this point I’d guess he’s at least 20 pounds of muscle above that listed weight. It’s an athletic frame, and that shows up in center field and on the base paths as well. He’s not going to be a burner, but he should be able to hold down centerfield and be an opportunistic base stealer. The risk is pretty high because the biggest concern is the hit tool - the zone contact was just 77% in High-A and is roughly the same (76%) so far in Double-A. However, the power is absolutely real, so as long as the contact rates don’t dip too much further, there’s hope for an everyday power hitting outfielder that will take his fair share of walks and run high strikeout rates. As we’re enamored with power in the Hobby, this is a risk definitely worth considering. He’s a borderline Tier 2 and Tier 3 guy for me, but there is definitely the Nelson Velazquez/Alexander Canario outcome where he just can’t hit enough to be an everyday player. With how weak the Giants prospect list is, and prospect lists in general, Davidson likely ends up as a consensus top 5 Giants prospect and finds himself in the conversation for Top 100 lists. If he can finish the last month of Double-A with an upward trend, he’ll definitely be worthy of the Tier 2 rank I’m going to drop on him here. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 6, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Tier 3

Yulian Barreto (SS, 17)
Signed out of Venezuela for somewhere in the $900K - $1.1M range (I saw differing info) as a shortstop, Barreto has spent most of his time in the DSL at second base. Moving down the defensive spectrum already is something to monitor, especially when it’s not even Josuar Gonzalez pushing him off the position as Gonzalez was playing on the DSL Giants Black squad while Barreto was on the DSL Giants Orange squad. It’s much more difficult to be high on team and overall prospect lists when you’re not playing a premium defensive position, even if we don’t care about defense in the Hobby. But we do care about prospect rankings and moving to a less valuable defensive position like Barreto has can push him down the ranks. Offensively, while the top line stats have produced a 131 wRC+ with a .322 average and 9 stolen bases, there’s a fair bit to be concerned about. Close to a 50% ground ball rate with a flat swing not geared for any sort of power and a frame on the slightly smaller side at 5’10” and 175 pounds. The build isn’t slight or stocky, so it’s hard to tell at just 17 years old if there’s a lot more to come with physical maturity. Still, just one home run is underwhelming and I don’t see at the moment a power swing, so even with added muscle I’m not sold on there being more than average power at best. An almost $1M bonus along with a pretty good statline is enough to push him into Tier 3 for the moment. On the other hand, I’m not buying, and I’m probably selling until I see some pop show up in the profile. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Djean Macares (OF, 17)
The Giants gave Macares the most money any player has ever signed for out of Aruba at $1.1M, so that alone is deserving of some prospect pedigree juice. As far as the tools go, the primary ones of interest are the hit and speed tools according to the reports we got. The hit tool is raw at this point, even with the high contact rate (83%) - he’s got this hesitation in his swing where he starts his lower body in motion and hangs his front leg in the air for a split second before swinging as sort of a timing mechanism. That should be the first thing the dev team eliminates. Maybe that leads to some actual pop, but at the very least we need to see some positive impact. That’s because while Macares was making contact, it was of the poor contact variety. A 47% ground ball rate is the beginning evidence of that and a .244 BABIP with a .214 batting average is the conclusion of that poor contact outcome. The speed is there, even if he only stole 7 bases in 50 games - he was definitely looking fast down the line as he hit infield ground ball after infield ground ball. He walked quite a bit, so he was on base a fair bit, but it still wasn’t as much as he needed to be able to reach double digit steals. Zero DSL home runs inspire little confidence, and without a major growth spurt (currently 5’10”), we can easily restrain our enthusiasm. This is probably a backup outfielder profile with an outside shot of a slap hitting speedster at the top or bottom of a lineup. He gets into Tier 3 because of the International Signing Bonus with the Aruba notoriety and we very rarely rank first year DSL prospects in Tier None, but I’d be selling all day long until we see substantive changes. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 3-5 (Both)

Tier None

Zander Darby (2B, 22)
Coming into 2024, Darby looked a potential top 5 round pick in the MLB Draft following a promising 2023 Sophomore season at UCSB and at the Cape. He didn’t take a step forward in his Junior year, although it wasn’t a step back either, and ended up falling to the 12th round for the Giants. His offensive profile is kind of plain vanilla - a measured approach at the plate that will make an above average amount of contact, makes the pitcher work to get an out, and is happy to take a walk. He’ll steal a few bases, he’ll hit a few home runs, but it’s just flavorless. He started the 2025 season at Single-A and showed through three months of games that he needed more of a challenge as he put up a 137 wRC+. Roughly a month into his High-A experience as of writing, and it’s been much more difficult going for Darby. He was spraying the ball all over the field in Single-A, but so far in High-A, I’m seeing quite a bit more opposite field contact than previous, mostly at the expense of up the middle contact. That tells me he’s yet to adjust to the pitching and velocity at the level - it doesn’t overly worry me, but I would have liked to see him continue to show he’s better than the level when he was promoted, especially as a college bat. Darby has primarily been at second base, with the next most frequent position being third base. I watched some of his reps at third base as I was hoping he would look good enough there to be at a higher value position, but I wasn’t overly bullish coming out of that. He simply wasn’t smooth, and didn’t handle balls hit his way very well. That puts more pressure on his bat to shine if he is pushed to a full time second base role. For now, Darby falls into that utility infielder/org depth bucket and that’s not great for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Jakob Christian (OF, 22)
Christian is a typical aggressive swinging, power hitting corner bat with strikeout issues. He’s got a swing grooved for power, and he’s not going to get cheated on any swing, giving full effort whenever the bat comes off the shoulder. He’s looking to crush fastballs and struggles with breaking and off-speed pitches away. At 6’5”, his length and swing path put the ball in the air quite a bit, either of the fly ball or line drive variety, and his natural strength will get the ball out to all fields. However, since his call up to High-A in mid-July, the ground ball rate has jumped into warning territory at over 46% as pitchers attack him in the bottom of the zone. His K rate, already at 28% in Single-A, has jumped up to 35% in High-A in a small sample, which is another warning sign to proceed cautiously. He’s athletic enough to steal some bases, and play in an outfield corner if first base isn’t an option. With Eldridge ahead of him in the Giants pecking order, he may have to figure out a corner outfield spot in the future. Christian is the type of player I often get suckered into chasing in the Hobby, especially when he’s on the team I collect. He’s a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None player for me, but the strikeout rates are concerning enough at the lower level of the minors that he’s not going to get the benefit of the doubt. Watch his K rate as he works his way through the minors - if he can get it in the 25% or less range while maintaining his power swing, then it’s a jump into Tier 3. Until then, he’s a Tier None lottery ticket that is price-dependent. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

Robert Hipwell (3B, 22)
While the hope for relevance with Hipwell was that he could stick at third base, the Giants have had him getting a lot more reps at first base than third in 2025. With fellow Bowman Chrome prospect Jakob Christian’s promotion to High-A, Hipwell has taken on even more reps at first base in Single-A. Hipwell has enough arm for third base, but he’s a work in progress over there in all aspects. That work should be done in the lower minors where he’s at now, so either the Giants feel like it’s a less likely final landing spot than we thought coming out of college, or this is more of a roster construction scenario. All of this focus on defense, which we often ignore in the Hobby, is due to the fact that at first base, Hipwell’s profile is a fringe major leaguer at the moment. He’s a short bat path, patient bordering on being a passive hitter. He’s looking to take a walk and get on base more than he is trying to put the ball in play as evidenced by a 41% swing rate in 2025. That passivity leads to high walk rates - currently in the 15% range. That’s not to say he doesn’t have a good eye - his o-swing rate is just 22%. His tight swing doesn’t do him any favors in getting to his power even if his home ball park in San Jose does, helping him get to 11 home runs as of writing. The K rate being over 30% and the whiff rate being over 41% are scary for a hitter this passive. If you’re not swinging much, and when you do, it’s not regularly leading to positive results, is not a great formula to ending up as a future MLB bat. His willingness to take a walk and put the ball in the air could be ingredients to work with, but everything else going on with Hipwell’s profile at the moment screams “avoid” for the Hobby, and that’s what I’ll be doing here. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 3 (Both)

St. Louis Cardinals

Tier 1

Rainiel Rodriguez (C, 18)
Tier 1. Write-up done! But seriously, Rodriguez was one of the buzzier names coming out of the DSL at the end of 2024, and he’s done everything possible to turn that buzz into an unrelenting cacophony of sound. Starting the year at the Complex, he absolutely showed he was too good for the level. In 20 games, he had a ridiculous .373/.513/.831 triple slash with 7 home runs for a wRC+ of 237. He was promoted at the beginning of June to Single-A and while he didn’t put up otherworldly numbers, it was still very strong results, with a triple slash of .249/.373/.498 and 13 home runs for a wRC+ of 145. For an 18 year old getting his first taste of the level, that makes it even more impressive. His present power, aggressive approach with high contact, and swing geared to keep the ball off the ground is everything you want to see in the Hobby for a plus hit and power bat. The below the top-line results stats quoting could go on for some time - his EV data all looks fantastic (88.4 average, 103.4 90th%, and 111.1 max in Single-A), contact rates are awesome (82% zone and 71% outside), and barrel rate is strong (7.8%). He keeps the whiffs down (22%) with that aggressive approach, leading to a 17% K rate at Single-A. And it’s not like he can’t take a walk either, as he had a 14% walk rate in Single-A, which was the lowest mark he’s had so far as a pro. Being aggressive is often confused with free-swinging, which Rodriguez is not - he sees pitches he can hit, and he swings. With his contact abilities, he’s not getting cheated on those swings. But his swing rate was on the lower end of the range at just 43%. So what’s not to like? Not much, at least from a Hobby perspective and in the short term. If he continues doing this, he’ll be a top 50 prospect in no time (73rd in our end of season rankings), with top 25 upside.
In the long term, you can find some concerns. He’s a big body at 5’10” 200 pounds, which explains why he’s been primarily a catcher in his career. Shorter, heftier bodies tend to end up behind the dish in the early years of baseball. And yeah, that 200 pounds measurement looks maybe two years out of date. How he holds his weight as he matures is definitely something to monitor. With that stature, he’s not going to be stealing many bases. He’s not great, but he’s competent enough behind the plate defensively. The primary issue is his arm - it is weak and inaccurate at the moment. This likely pushes him into a 1B/DH profile long term, and while he has the tools to make it work there, the everyday reps get harder and harder to find at those positions. I have a hard time seeing him ever hit the top overall prospect in baseball because of those long term concerns, and that minor deficiency keeps me from pushing his Ceiling all the way to a 10.
For this release, though, I don’t think there’s much argument that he’s a top 5 prospect in it, and there’s a strong argument to be made that he’s top overall prospect in the checklist. The plus hit and plus power that I see in the data as well as in the video is simply excellent. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 9 (Both)

Tier 3

Royelny Strop (OF, 17)
The Cardinals only gave one bonus over $750k this IFA period, and it was to Strop for $1.4 MM, the son of 13-year MLB vet Pedro Strop. He only has base cards in this release. He has a solid physique already, especially in his lower body. With that developed body he seems to have slowed down already – I didn’t see anything like the plus speed he supposedly had (in the double I saw him hit), and he hasn’t been aggressive on the bases either. At the plate he starts with his hands high and as starts his toe tap he wraps his bat a little further. It makes for a really long swing, but it is at least one that is well balanced in the box. His power looks easy when he’s on time. The problem has been that he rarely is. To improve, he’ll likely have to make adjustments that will lessen his present power because as I said, there’s not a lot of growth remaining in his frame. He doesn’t pick up spin particularly well at present, leading to a lot of whiff both in and out of the zone. However, I'll give him a little bit of a pass because he missed playing time this year on multiple occasions, and working into rhythm with that long swing isn’t exactly easy. Only in mid-August did his performance start ticking up, and his season finished with a bang when he hit for the cycle on August 19. While that hot week raised him out of “abysmal” territory, like a lot of DSL players Strop has a long way to go. I’ll keep him in bottom of Tier 3 because of the power potential, but I’m not optimistic that he ever gets past High-A unless that swing changes and some big improvement to pitch recognition happens. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7 (Base Only)

Tier None

Sammy Hernandez (C, 21)
2025 Bowman write-up:
The Cardinals have built themselves really nice, young backstop depth. Already at the MLB level we’ve got Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pagés. Hot on their heels is Jimmy Crooks, currently handling Triple-A just like he’s taken care of every level below it. In Double-A, you’ve got Leonardo Bernal also showing he’s a future major leaguer. Rainiel Rodriguez potentially doesn’t stick at catcher, but he was one of the best players in the DSL in 2024. Ryan Campos, the Cardinals 4th round pick in 2024, is another backstop that I think has a future backup catcher role with a strong hit tool and a gamer-type of mentality that succeeds despite not being the most physically gifted player. All of this lead-in is to paint the picture of how hard it will be for Sammy Hernandez to crack the Cardinals top 5 catchers list, let alone be in consideration for a future MLB role. On the other hand, catchers are regularly in the line of fire and theoretically at higher risk of injury, so I guess you never know. At this point Hernandez has an above average hit tool and not much else. Spending most of last year at Single-A, he put up a very nice 11% walk rate with an 18% K rate leading to a 118 wRC+. His zone contact rate was an impressive 85% and he limited his whiff rate to under 23% (79th percentile). There was a bit too much outside of the zone swing, and an almost complete lack of power as he’s never hit more than six home runs in a minor league season. He’s not going to steal bases, and he’s a work in progress behind the dish at the moment. He’ll be in a crouch for some pitches, mostly ones planned to go towards the top of the zone, and then goes to one knee for mid to low pitches - there’s a LOT of pre-pitch movement back there right now. We’re essentially looking at a contact-first backup catcher profile that’s a major work in progress. I don’t see any reason to be a Hobby buyer here given the profile, the Cardinals catching depth, and the lack of autos.
2025 Bowman Chrome Update:
Interestingly, with Rainiel Rodriguez up to Single-A and getting catcher reps, Hernandez has been splitting time between catcher and first base. And that’s almost literally the only thing that’s changed. His zone contact rate that I quoted in the 2025 Bowman writeup was a rate of 85% - checking in on his zone contact rate this season - 85%. His whiff rate I quoted in the 2025 Bowman writeup was a rate of under 23% - checking in on his whiff rate this season - 22%. I guess he’s nothing if not consistent. The above average hit tool is still in the cards while the power and speed are in the below average to fringe range. When he is catching, he’s still using multiple setups with a ton of pre-pitch movement - I suppose that can work, but I would imagine that’s an outlier if he continues using that strategy and he succeeds at the MLB level with it. I don’t imagine the first base scenario is a real end point for him - his bat really only works as a utility player that can pitch in at catcher, second base, and left field. Hernandez is still Tier None with the likeliest outcome being an emergency call-up/org depth type of role. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 3 (Auto Only)

Yairo Padilla (SS, 18)
Padilla was a 2024 IFA, signing for $760k. His best tool is speed, followed closely by his hit and defense at SS – it’s nice to have three tools that already project to be above average or better, right? That was on full display in the DSL last year where he had a solid season, and he continued it this season in the Complex with very similar numbers, although he missed the last three weeks (no report of injury I could find, but he only had 1 AB in his final game). He is also taller than his listed 6’0”, which may or not help him impact the ball in the future. I found only limited video from this year, but he stands in the box with his hands high and uses a big leg kick, then hitches his hands lower in a swing that’s a sell-out for contact. He does use his lower body well enough, so it’s led to a good contact rate and quite a bit of batted ball success. He has a solid approach at the plate altogether. Also, his speed has been on full display, having stolen 46 bases in 73 pro games with a 84% success rate. What he’s not showing right now is any power whatsoever. Only 23% of his hits have gone for extra bases. We want that number to to be at least 30% to be a significant hobby name. Guys with significant power are closer to 40%. He also hits the ball on the ground in just over half his batted balls. With his speed, that’s completely fine in a real life context! But we’re talking about him in a hobby context here, and I just don’t see a big ceiling. The best case scenario is, as Rhys White put it before the season “a Target-brand Starlyn Caba.” While I do love me some Circle Rewards and Caba has had quite a bit of unexpected hobby relevance, Padilla is not for me in the hobby context. He's at the top of Tier None. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

Nathan Church (OF, 25)
Church was called up to the majors in mid-August to replace an injured Victor Scott, only 3 years after being taken in the 11th Round from UC-Irvine. Sometimes Senior signs work out! While Church is playing CF in St. Louis right now, it’s never been thought to be a long term home – he’s just the last man standing with enough speed and experience at the position. That speed, however, does not play well on the bases, and his fringy arm likely leaves him in LF should he stick in the majors long-term. At the plate he’s a classic hit-tool guy. Impressively, he’s never had a K% below 15 or a contact% below 80 at any stop in the minors. He’s highly aggressive in hitter’s counts that leads to less walks than you want from someone who could profile as a #2 hitter – despite usually having an average well over .300, his OBP has rarely kissed .400. None of that stuff matters if you’re impacting the ball, which he’s done in the minors, but we should be cautious here. He has a fairly flat swing path, as you might expect for a player who’s making all that contact. That makes it really hard for him to get to ideal launch angles and barrels and all those advanced stats we like to see with player who don't have otherwise-loud tools. I just don’t see much hobby ceiling with Church, but his floor of being an MLB 4th OF is already a reality. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 1, Ceiling: 4 (Both)

Tampa Bay Rays

Tier 3

Maykel Coret (OF, 17)
The Rays signed three Dominicans for seven-figure bonuses this IFA period, and they’re all in this product. Coret was the biggest of the three for $1.6 MM. It’s easy to see why. He stands in with a lanky 6’4” frame that screams projection. However, at present he doesn’t have the obvious look of a power hitter. He sets himself up with a very open stance, crowding the plate with the intention of doing damage to the pull side. Even DSL pitchers, as poor as their command is, know better than to put it where he wants. The thing is, Coret is perfectly willing to flip outside pitches to RF as well, albeit without much pop so far. He’s not quite adept at getting to that pull side power with regularity either just yet. Much of his whiff lies there, when he's hunting for that pull-side juice. But long levered prospects like this always take time, so it's mostly forgiven. He’s also a high-ceiling defender in CF and is an above average runner, both of which could go either way as his body develops. There's a large range of outcomes for Curet, even by DSL standards, but the dream is a big one here – a four tool player (his hit probably never gets to average) with a 30 HR/20 SB potential. No need to be creative with the Rays IFA's – paint by number works – he's my favorite of the three hobby-wise. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 7-9 (Both)

Warel Solano (3B, 17)
Solano signed for just over $1 MM this January. From my look there’s some pretty amazing offensive potential here between a lot of rawness. He’s got a solid frame at 6’2” to grow into, and how he does should really key his development. He already has the high handed stance of a power hitter – to me that just says who he wants to be. He’s not that right now. It’s mostly because he does not use his lower half well – a common refrain for players of his age. He loses his balance often, which causes awkward swings…but guess what? He’s shown an ability to make solid contact even when he does so. That, friends, is what we call a feel to hit, and it can’t really be taught. I’ll also mention that he also hitches his hands on occasion which affect his timing, but it just goes in the bucket of “things to clean up” as he matures. Solano is probably a better prospect offensively than what the Rays thought they were getting, but how his other tools have played out knock him back down. He’s already moved off of SS, and while we should forgive some of the roughness at 3B because it’s a new position, he’s been a bit of a butcher. He also doesn’t have great speed. The bat is going to have to play. But hey it just might! To me he’s a worthwhile gamble, and one who it’s easy to predict success at the Complex next year at least. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 6-8 (Both)

Tier None

Matthew Etzel (OF, 23)
Since being drafted by the Orioles in the 10th Round in 2023, Etzel has already been traded twice. First to the Rays at the 2024 trade deadline in the Zach Eflin deal, then to the Marlins in a straight-up trade for Nick Fortes at this year’s deadline. I think this really speaks to how successful he’s been. It really started in 2023 at Southern Mississippi, where he was a 4th year Junior. After being drafted he quickly blew past Low-A into High-A, then 2024 blew past High-A into AA. He’s stalled a bit in the upper minors, but there’s a solid floor of a fourth OF nonetheless. Again – 10th Round pick. Pretty successful considering! His approach at the plate stands out more than his hit tool in total at present. He’s a slasher who’s looking to pull, but also able to hit the ball with impact the other way when he’s looking for it. If not, he’s perfectly willing to take walks and has always done so at a good clip. There’s not much in the way of actual power though – his launch angle is on the low side and his average exit velocity is below average. Though he’s a solid defender, he’s mostly been a LF despite above average speed. He's also just fringy as a baserunner. There’s really quite a small range of outcomes for Etzel at this juncture. He’s either a 2nd division regular, or a 4th OF. Neither are great for the hobby, and he’s not the type of player likely to spike. We should see him in the majors early next year though. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 2, Ceiling: 4 (Auto Only)

Trevor Harrison (RHP, 20)
If you’re interested in raw stuff and good surface level results, then Harrison is someone you should consider as a potential cheap Bowman auto to grab if his base auto is in the $5 or less range. If you look at his present evaluation and watch his tape, you’d probably think of allocating your money elsewhere. At barely 20 years old and possessing a starting pitcher frame (6’4” 225 pounds), he is already in High-A and over 100 innings so far this season following a 72 inning debut pro season. That’s a nice foundation for a prep arm in his second pro season. A three pitch arsenal with a mid-90’s four seamer that he pairs with a tight slider and an occasional changeup. I’ve also seen a curveball mentioned in reports, but I didn’t see it in the tape I watched. Regardless, it’s a very north-south look for hitters with a lot of swing and miss on the slider due to the tunneling with the fastball. The command is questionable at the moment and I regularly saw him laboring through at bats leading to high pitch counts and shorter outings. I was intrigued going into the video with the good statistical results, a prototypical SP frame, an overslot bonus from the Rays in the 2024 draft, and a fastball living around 95 that can get towards 98. The video made it evident that he’s more of a raw ball of clay at this point, and while I trust the Rays more than a lot of other orgs to mold that properly, I came away a lot less interested. This is a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None backend SP. I wouldn’t mind a few cheap shots on Harrison’s autos (he has no base), but I’m going to guess there will be plenty of options in that price bucket I’d rather grab first. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4 (Auto Only)

Raymer Medina (2B, 17)
Although he has the most fitting name (Ray-mer, get it?), Medina is the least promising of the Rays’ seven-figure signees in this product to date. At 5'11" he is smaller in stature than the other two, and more importantly -- he not as obviously projectable. The DSL has been a struggle for him on the offensive side. His contact rate is well below average and he’s had poor quality when he connects (his batting average was under .200). It’s easy to see why. He has a big leg kick and wandering hands in his coil that greatly affects his timing. His front side leaks out and affects his impact with the ball. It's just a really messy swing. I will say though, on the occasion that he squares up, the pop looks easy. There could be some power someday. His speed is not a loud tool either, having attempted only 7 steals. His defense at SS, which was not supposed to be his best tool, looks to be his best asset at present. There’s obvious elements of Medina’s game that can be cleaned up, but at this juncture I’ll be avoiding him for the hobby. I’ll let him have success in a DSL repeat before I jump in. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Texas Rangers

Tier 3

Alejandro Rosario (RHP, 23)
2025 Bowman write-up:
A huge riser in 2024, if not for the news that Rosario has a UCL tear and is expected to need elbow surgery back in February, he would have been considered the “best of the rest” of the pitching prospects in this product, and there could have been an argument for being potentially as good as Thomas White. Strangely, as of writing, he has not yet had that surgery, with a report on April 7th that there is an undisclosed issue that is delaying that procedure. Putting that to the side, I’ll first give a hat tip to one half of the Dynasty Pickup gurus, Kyle Sonntag, for first putting Rosario on my radar back in early June of last season with his pickup recommendation. Then a hat tip to Josh Norris of Baseball America for almost at the same time posting this two minute clip of absolute filth coming from Rosario from behind the dish. It’s full of swing and miss on all his offerings, knee buckling breakers, and batters looking completely foolish with bats flying out of their hands at times. Rosario came out of the University of Miami with pretty much all of his prep hype gone, allowing the Rangers to take him in the 5th round of the 2023 MLB Draft. Texas then made some tweaks to his pitch mix and positioning on the mound, and it completely unlocked Rosario. He suddenly was striking hitters out at a 37% rate while holding the walk rate below 5%. His college numbers weren’t even close to that, which leads me to give out my third hat tip of this blurb to the Rangers pitching dev - this change is super impressive. Rosario is a bit on the smaller side for a starting pitcher at just 6’1” and 182 pounds, we only saw one year of dominance after three years of college mediocrity, and now we have an upcoming UCL surgery with some unknown complications. What should have been a Tier 2 pitcher with Tier 1 upside is now a Tier 3 pitcher until we get some sort of clarity on a murky future. Not having autos in the product further diminishes any sort of short term Hobby interest.
2025 Bowman Chrome Update:
Literally zero update on the situation outside of confirmation from Evan Grant, Rangers beat writer, on social media as of late July, that Rosario still has not had surgery. Grant called it “...a process. Rangers and Rosario working through some unrelated issues”. The speculation here can range from the mundane to the absolutely wild. I’m going to keep him in Tier 3 because the talent dictates that and leave his Ceiling rank as is, but I’m pushing the Risk rank to the highest possible. I want absolutely nothing to do with his cards, and would sell and then sell some more. If he gets elbow surgery any time in the next few months, he’s likely not going to be throwing in a live game until 2027! Yikes. And if any of the wild speculation you can imagine comes to fruition, who the heck knows when he’s throwing a baseball again. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 8 (Auto Only)

Devin Fitz-Gerald (SS, 20)
It’s hard to underrate any prep coming from Stoneman Douglas HS (where his dad is the coach), but Fitz-Gerald was thought to need more seasoning at NC State to really maximize his draft stock. The Rangers ponied up and took him in the 5th Round last year, and gave him 900k (3rd Round money) to lure him away from that collegiate commitment. What he’s done so far has proven to be well worth that shot. Before I get too far, I want to note that he’s been out since early July with a shoulder injury – no further information. Let’s assume he’ll be healthy to start next year for the sake of this writeup. If that is the case it was a season where he was dominant in the Complex, posting a .318/.423/.542, and followed that up with 10 games of some promise at Low-A. He’s on the conservative side as a swinger, but thus far it's only netted as a positive, contributing to that high OBP. A strong, short-levered 5’11”, his swing has changed a bit since high school already. He now stands in with a deep crouch and his weight centered to start, then uses a pronounced leg kick both to set into his back hip and get his timing. He’s not perfect with it just yet – his hip leaks forward on occasion – but he’s comfortable really swinging with a lot of effort and has produced both good exit velocity and an above average contact rate. His tools project to be average everywhere except power, which is a harder thing to get that high. He’s also a bit older for only having only spent a few games in full-season ball, but that was a known factor this whole time - he was always going to take a beat to develop into who he was going to be as a pro. I’m not all that interested in him for the hobby, but there’s a 75th% outcome that he develops into a solid, everyday utility type already. That’s a win for the Rangers development. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 6 (Both)

Elorky Rodriguez (OF, 17)
Rodriguez signed in January for $1.1 MM – the largest bonus of their Latin American signings. He’s a smaller bodied player who has split time evenly between 2B, CF, and DH. He’s also already quite physically developed. That's not to say he’s maxed out but I don't see where there's much physical projectability left. But did have a stellar performance in the DSL (on the surface at least), so there’s hope that he can continue with his current physique into the low minors. At the plate he holds his hands just below his shoulder, and uses a small leg kick to set himself for a well-balanced swing. It does look a hair stiff though at present, and that leads to just an average contact rate (for the level, mid-70%) than a player with him with short, quick levers like his should be operating. I’m being critical here – just setting expectations and risk – as I said, he’s done great in the DSL. His BABIP sits around .400 – a benchmark that’s telling of his excellent physicality, and solid pull-side exit velocity. He is a bit passive at the plate at present, but nobody cares about that in the DSL when you’re also slugging near .500 and hitting over .300. Hobby-wise, I’m going to tread lightly here. I just don’t see where the loud tool is. It could be his hit, but it’s not projecting to be that just yet in my eyes. He did slug 17 XBH with a .169 ISO, which is solid for the level – but I think that's more a result of his present physicality and not a sign of the future. Being bounced around from 2B to CF with significant time at DH as well says he is already on a lower rung of the defensive spectrum. He also isn’t a strong runner on the bases. The Rangers should be happy with what their investment in him had yielded so far, but the hobby shouldn’t fall for the deception of the surface level stats. I’m planting my flag in putting him on a lower rung of Tier 3 – because the pedigree of his bonus, and that performance, should have him higher. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Tier None

David Ortiz Jr. (1B, 17)
2025 Bowman Writeup: OK, so obviously this is a son of David Ortiz – one of two in this product. He signed as an IFA in August last year for $225k. There is, uh, not a lot to like about him if I’m treating him as a “normal” prospect headed to the DSL for the 2025 season. He’s not tall or projectable, and he carries a lot of bad weight (it’s less now than it has been though). It was painful watching him throw as a 14 year-old in a showcase video. I’m sure he’s made big strides since, but his athleticism remains a huge red flag. He looks like a shorter version of his dad with less muscle. Video on Ortiz is limited to some BP and drills, so please take the following with a grain of salt. He’s worked to become more dynamic and athletic in the box (and having his dad there is a huge help). However, he started from almost nothing, and still doesn’t get into his back hip well or get wide enough to get into what I would project as real power. Still only 17, there’s time. But he definitely has a limited defensive profile and the massive spectre of looking physically like his dad to contend with. He should have some intrigue because of his name, but I really think we won’t be hearing much from him as a pro.

2025 Bowman Chrome Update: Ortiz’s performance in the DSL has done little to change my thought that he’s a non-prospect, thus far. He’s hitting under .150 and has shown no indication of knowing when to swing. He’s been both extremely passive and bad at making contact. I don’t feel the need to expand my thoughts further. His conditioning does look a bit better now, but I’ll keep him the same as where he was in May. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 1-3 (Auto Only)

Toronto Blue Jays

Tier 3

RJ Schreck (OF, 25)
In a deep dive on social media from Prospects Live own Smada looking for the next round of future breakouts based with PLive+ as the jumping off point, RJ Schreck was first on the list and called out as the “next Spencer Horowitz”. It’s a useful comp in that Schreck profiles as a high OBP, plus hit tool guy that could start for a second division team. On a more competitive team, Schreck is more of that strong side platoon outfielder as he’s hit .228 this year and .230 last year against left-handers. He’s never had below double digit walk rates as a pro and has a 15% walk rate across Double-A and Triple-A this year. As one would expect, he doesn’t swing much outside of the zone, and when he does, he’s making contact at least half the time. In zone contact was a strong 86% in Double-A, but this has dipped to a bit more league average at 80% in Triple-A. If he can get back to the better than average zone contact territory, then he’s probably deserving of a Tier 3 ranking. If advanced pitching can continue to exploit the holes in his swing (mostly up in the zone) and get him to chase a bit more on down in the dirt changeups and curveballs like I saw a bit, then he’s falling into the Tier None bucket. The power is average, but he gets more than his fair share of it by making a lot of good contact on hitter’s pitches due to his patience. His speed is basically average with some decent know-how on stealing bases enabling him to get into the double digit range. But it’s nothing to really bank on. There’s a potential plus tool in the bag with the hit tool, and everything else is just fine - he could end up hitting .280 10/10 or something along those lines. That’s underwhelming for the Hobby, and it’s because of that I would be a seller. Because of the plus hit tool and solid production in 2025 (a combined 147 wRC+ as of writing), Schreck slides into Tier 3. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 1, Ceiling: 5 (Both)

Cristopher Polanco (SS, 17)
The Blue Jays top signing in the 2025 International Free Agency period for just a touch under $2.3M, which ended up being the only seven figure bonus Toronto handed out in this most recent go-around. Polanco was typically ranked in the 10-25 range of International prospects, so it’s understandable why he commanded the bonus dollars he did. The projection is built around a plus hit tool, speed, and above average fielding potential. He was patient/passive at the plate in the at bats I watched, and his swing rate at just 40% bears that out. Putting himself in potential negative spots with that passive approach led to a low contact rate and a 25% K rate. On the positive side, that also leads to a high walk rate (23%) as DSL pitchers struggle to find the plate. As Polanco advances through the levels, that approach likely doesn’t produce the same high walk rates. The speed was there as he stole bases with ease even if his running style was a bit too upright for my taste. He played shortstop for his entire run through the DSL, but there wasn’t a whole lot to see in the available video except getting absolutely crushed by his third baseman over-playing a ball hit to shortstop. Gotta love teenagers playing baseball. Safe to say he’s probably going to stick up the middle somewhere. It’s also safe to say Polanco has yet to live up to his signing bonus with a .177/.392/.232 triple slash with zero home runs and nine stolen bases. Given the pedigree, he gets the benefit of the doubt for now and is ranked in Tier 3. But he’s not one I’d be buying any time soon for the Hobby especially with just an average power potential. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6 (Both)

Washington Nationals

Tier 2

Luke Dickerson (2B, 20)
If this were written in May, this writeup would be quite a bit different and a lot easier to make the case for his being a Tier 2 name. But I'm going to make that case anyway. There's still a lot to like. Dickerson was quickly promoted to Low-A at the beginning of May after starting at the Complex, and slashed .293/.403/.466 in his first 17 games at the level. This quick ascension was not at all the expectation for Dickerson. He was taken in the 2nd Round last year as an elite three-sport prep athlete from New Jersey, and was signed away from a Virginia commitment for $3.8 MM. With a cold weather bat like this who wasn’t focused solely on baseball, there's almost always a longer runway to having success in full-season ball. Speed, speed, and speed is his best tool, with some burgeoning power in his profile as well. His frame is filled out – strength in it's raw form is not an issue at all. But he does have some majors issues, as since that hot start his wRC+ is under 50. A lot of it is correctable. I think he just needs to be more athletic in the box. He stays fairly upright throughout his whole setup, and hitches not just his body, but his hands back to create more wrap as the pitch comes in. It creates fantastic bat speed, but it also makes him very stiff. Hitting pitches on the outer half very difficult and he's also prone to putaway pitches. Nearly all of his power is to the pull side at present. If he takes a little bit of effort away from his setup, and gets a little deeper into a crouch, I wonder how much easier things would be. But even as is, some of his performance is bad luck – a player with his speed and a neutral batted ball profile should not have a BABIP under .300, and his is under .270. His contact rate is even in the mid 70’s – a solid mark for a player who still has a ways to go with his development. He’s hit over 20 XBH, including 6 HR. His speed is great as I said, and it plays very, very well into his defense. He’s mostly played SS, but his arm is fringy so he’s more likely to end up at 2B. Hobby-wise, I think he’s still fairly low-hanging fruit. He’s always been known to be a toolsy prospect. Please do not be dissuaded by the rough season he’s had. I think his performance is at a nadir right now. He’ll clean things up in the offseason and come back to Low-A like a man on fire to begin 2026. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 7, Ceiling: 8 (Both)

Tier 3

Brayan Cortesia (SS, 17)
The Nationals took a big swing on Cortesia this IFA period, signing the Venezuelan for $1.9 MM. He’s largely a projection signing, but his performance was quite good in the DSL as well. He’s not very physically developed, and he hunts for pull-side power early in counts that he doesn’t presently have – but there’s not much more negative to say. Man is he a pesky out. There’s a solid approach at the plate – in my look he took two pitches on the edge in an 0-2 count; an AB in which he eventually earned a walk. It’s a microcosm of who he is, and that above average (for the level) 77 contact% is a nice block to build on to what could end up being a plus hit tool. He’s more aggressive on the bases than truly fast, but it’s an asset that could tick up as he develops those man-muscles. The same could be said for his defense, but he certainly did enough to stick at SS as he heads to the Complex next year. With as safe as I'm making him sound, could he go right to Low-A next year? I’m thinking no. There were great results for sure (.317 average, .440 OBP) and it’s backed up by his batted ball profile, but also only 4 of his 38 hits went for extra bases, which led to a SLG well under .400. There just has to be more physical development, and that’s better had at the Complex, not the grind of full season ball. He’s more “intriguing” as a hobby name than a “future stud” with definite loud tools at this juncture. I’ll knock his risk down to the lowest of DSL prospects, but I’m also not sure the ceiling is very high. - Max Arterburn
Risk: 8, Ceiling: 5-7 (Both)

Tier None

Carlos Taveras (1B, 19)
2025 Bowman write-up:
After showing decent line drive contact skills at the DSL in 2023 and the Complex in 2024, the brief introduction so far for Tavares at Single-A in 2025 has been rough, driven by a 42% K rate as of writing. It doesn’t help that he’s not getting any sort of consistent playing time as he struggles to figure out Single-A pitchers. If I had written this back in 2024, I probably would have been tempted to rank Tavares in Tier 3 with a sort of high average, good first base defense profile. Sort of similar to Yandy Diaz type of results, even if it’s a different profile (line drives rather than the patented Yandy ground balls). At the moment, he looks lost in the box, and I have a feeling it’s going to take a while for him to find his groove and become Hobby relevant. Lacking in game power to this point, that relevancy is going to be even harder to attain, especially with just base cards in the product, and we can safely find other places to spend.
2025 Bowman Chrome update:
I should be patient here, as I sort of hinted at in my 2025 Bowman write-up with Tavares, who had 55 Single-A games in 2025. In those 55 games, he’s had just two, yes two, multi-hit games. And in both those games he only got two hits, so it’s not like he went 5-5 with multiple extra base hits. Combine a sub 74% zone contact rate with an almost 36% whiff rate and you end up with a 40 wRC+. One home run on the season simply isn’t going to cut it in general, and with playing the majority of your games at first base, it’s pretty much a death knell. There’s also a demotion, if you can call it that, to the Complex team in mid-August, well after the Complex season ended. Basically they said you’re not cutting it at the lowest level of full-season ball and you need to be off that roster for further development. I don’t even see anything to get me mildly excited at this point, and I’m downgrading his ranks as I’m not sure he makes it out of the minors if the trends continue to be this poor. - Joe Lowry
Risk: 9, Ceiling: 3 (Auto Only)