Several players with power explosions mark big risers, but this is a largely nuanced update. With two graduations and a debut to consider, it's still 11 of the top 20 Hobby+ prospects being retained from last time. It's a little bit of stability before Complex players start to blow everything up in the next few updates. But who's lurking in full season ball yet? It's an interesting question.
If you have any questions on what Hobby+ is, or who is and isn't included, reference my Primer.
Data in this piece is updated as of 6/2. Let's get into it.
Age-Dependent Power
Josue Briceño was already pretty high on the leaderboard, but nobody’s shown more Age Dependent Power growth from my last update. Having a 3 HR game plus 3 other HR will do that, I suppose. As a member of the 2025 Bowman crop he was already at the fore of the hobby’s mind. This just confirms he won’t be going away anytime soon.
It’s all the usual suspects here until we get down to Alfonsin Rosario (2024 Bowman). His power has always been a calling card, and he’s shown in spurts that he can be quite prolific. It’s making enough contact that’s a problem and limits his projection. Now in the Guardians system and at High-A, he’s still whiffing a ton (66% contact), but he’s been a bit more aggressive, and he’s so strong that his batted ball results have been good. I think this is perhaps a bit of a mirage, but he still has some nice hobby potential.
I’m definitely more bullish on Caleb Bonemer (2024 Draft). In our 2024 Bowman Draft Preview, I wrote “If he’s running a good BABIP with little power, that’s probably a result of coaching – just understand the power is coming and those positive batted ball results are a foundational piece to his development.” Well, his BABIP now sits at .369 with a modest 4 HR. But look deeper – he has 16 other XBH within that. It’s not really so hard to see his power is truly on the cusp already. He’s not exactly cheap, but we’re talking about a potential 30+ HR bat here, so there’s still explosive potential.
Hitting Skill
I wrote about him last time so I’ll be brief, but Blaze Jordan (2021 Bowman) socked a few dingers while maintaining his position on this list, earning a promotion to AAA. That's all for now with him. Keep him in your mind.
Cody Freeman (2025 Bowman) doesn’t have the tools to knock down the door to the majors, but he has to be the next man up should a need for a 2B/3B arise. There’s just such a great amount of contact with him – which is at new heights this year – and enough pop to think he could have success at the highest level. He might even be an acquisition target for a re-tooling team in a few months, assuming the Rangers aren’t in that position themselves. He’ll have to earn his way to playing time through the bench when he gets to the majors eventually, but there’s very little doubt getting there will happen.
Collegiate bats without a lot of pop and aren’t in the high minors yet don’t have much of a chance to make the Hobby+ board, but I’m here to tell you again that Sam Antonacci (2024 Draft) will probably be an MLB starter, and perhaps be one with hobby significance. For a higher tier of the same rung, we have Kyle DeBarge (2025 Bowman), and for a lower tier we have Fenwick Trimble (2024 Draft), who was just promoted to AA.
James Tibbs III (2024 Draft) is actually lower on this list than last time and his ascension on the Hobby+ board is due to power, but I’d like to note just how good of a hitter he’s been. He ran a K% over 30 in his debut last year. This year, it’s been cut in half, and he’s walked more than he’s struck out. It’s not totally believable because it comes with just an above average contact rate and it’s only High-A for a collegiate bat. But that, and his already having 10 HR, go a long way toward his earning a promotion to AA.
I’d like to quickly pour one out for Demetrio Crisantes’ (2023 BC) season. Still great potential, but I understand if the hobby softens on him in the next 9 months. A second major injury in 4 years is never an easy thing for the hobby to forget. He'll be sticking around on this leaderboard for the rest of the season frozen in time.
Hobby+
I mentioned previously Samuel Basallo (2023 BC) was on the precipice of having enough AB’s to hit the leaderboard, and he does so as the top dog. What he’s doing with his power and approach at age 20 at the highest MiLB level is just very impressive, to no one’s surprise. Of course, there is the positional issues – he doesn’t really have one, and until a shakeup in Baltimore happens (which would definitely allow for his promotion), he’ll look to improve his batted ball success in AAA – his average is low, but make no mistake, he’s a complete hitter.
Ryan Ritter, smoke ‘em if you got ‘em baby! First, let’s note that he was already in the Hobby+ leaderboard last time. This isn’t just a streak of magma – it’s been a real change to his profile that maybe we should have seen coming. I wrote in my 2022 Bowman Draft Retrospective that while he unexpectedly popped 24 HR in 2023, his power came back down to average last year and it probably wasn’t enough to benefit from the Coors effect. It hasn’t taken long for me to move away from that statement! Now, there's definitely the PCL effect to consider – 11 of his 16 HR have come in Albuquerque and Reno. But he’s also walking more, striking out less, and hitting non-HR XBH at a higher rate. Even when considering the PCL curve, his offensive profile has risen. Perhaps more important to real-life, his defense at SS – once regarded as a potential plus asset, has ticked up. It’s not that he was ever bad, it’s that he made too many mistakes, and this year, those have come less frequently. Anyhow, his cards have gone up roughly 6x in the last few weeks. Too late to buy now, but if he settles back into the $12-15 base auto range, he’s probably worth a look.
With his loud MLB debut, we lose Cole Young (2022 Drat) from the leaderboard. He would have been #3. With the legitimate power improvements he showed, I don’t think he’ll be returning to the minors anytime soon. Jac Caglianone (2024 Draft), likewise, graduates from the board.
Piggybacking on what I said last week about catchers, Leonardo Bernal (2023 BC) has had a significant power surge recently. He now sits as a 21 year old at AA with a K% well under 20%, a mid-.300’s OBP, and a .235 ISO. He does have a Jimmy Crooks (2022 Draft) problem. Except for Crooks’ lesser contact rate (which coupled with his age, pushes him well off the leaderboard), there’s a major overlap of skills. Defense is what matters most for catchers, and they both have potential to be big-league regulars behind the dish in that regard. With Bernal, there already seems to be a “don’t run on Leo” mentality, as only 29 bases have been attempted on him in 33 games, and he’s nabbed 10 of them (after catching 40 of 126 last year). It’s his mediocre receiving work (by comparison) that leaves him justifiably below Crooks in the pecking order. Anyhow, for the hobby I’m taking Bernal over Crooks 10 times out of 10 as a potential 20+ HR MLB starting catcher. There’s some value to squeeze out of that with his current prices, but there’s already been some recent reaction.
I know Michael Arroyo (2023 Bowman) is already well-regarded in the hobby as any prospect who reached High-A as a teen should be. Now back at that level as a 20 year old, after a slow first month he’s slashing .293/.449/.556 since May 1 – all three of those would be yearlong career highs. There has to be consideration to moving him to AA at this juncture, where he would again be one of the youngest players at the level. There’s not a lot of prescriptive hobby advice here, but if there’s ancillary pieces (higher numbered or non-Chrome autos, for example) in the $8-$10 – there shouldn’t be.
Other than Basallo, we’re also adding delayed starters Bryce Eldridge (2023 Draft) and Kahlil Watson (2022 Bowman), and Bryce Rainer (2024 Draft) who missed a week in early April (and is now hurt again). None of those are unexpected.
But what newcomers do we have that are unexpected? How about Sam Shaw (2024 Bowman) and Geraldo Quintero (2023 BC). They’re similar in that they’re both defensively limited OF/2B-types, but Quintero has the mitigating factor of at least average speed, and gets good use of it on the basepaths (though he’s probably too aggressive). Shaw is still learning 2B after being a 9th Round dart throw from Canada in the 2023 Draft. I’m more interested in Shaw hobby-wise, as he’s a classic case of sacrificing a little contact from last year to get to better batted ball results this year, while maintaining a solid approach – he just has to tick up his defense while maintaining this to ascend levels. Quintero’s batted ball results aren’t great overall, but you can’t argue 13 XBH in 32 games. He’s only 5’5”, so the 7 HR are probably fluky.
Shalin Polanco is one of only a few prospects still breathing life into 2021 Bowman Chrome. Don’t get it wrong, his lack of contact is an issue, but in this snapshot of his season currently, he stands as one of my biggest risers. It was due to a few good games, but he is up to 9 HR on the season and is only 21 for the entire year playing at High-A. Not many prospects at that age and level can tout that kind of power, so it’s worth a shot that he can develop enough of a semblance of a hit tool to make it. If he does, the power will likely show, so he’d be significant for the hobby. Probably worth a shot for under $5.
If you’re looking for players who have significantly improved in each update thus far, I’ve got you. Other than Ritter and Freili Encarnacion (who I've written about twice already), we have Jonathan Long (2025 Bowman), Brennan Milone (2023 BC), Kyle Teel (2024 Bowman), Keiner Delgado (2023 BC), and Brice Matthews (2024 Bowman). This is to say – take a look at Milone and Delgado – they might be interesting for the price.
For a deeper dive, be on the lookout for Wuilfredo Antunez (2023 BC). He’s always been solid but old for his levels because of injuries, and he’s shown great improvement since the last update. The K% is a little high, and because of that and his age he’s just off the board. But you can get his cards for almost nothing. If Antunez isn’t to your taste, perhaps take a look at Gleider Figuereo. His improvements and K issues are very similar, except he’s 2 years younger but about 3x the cost to acquire.
A quick note that Victor Bericoto (2021 Bowman paper auto) only shows up because he’s on fire in his rehab – do not take his status on the board at face value. He did earn a call-up to AAA before getting hurt though, so still worth monitoring. He would have just missed the board without the rehab shenanigans.
Conclusion
As expected we've eased into a bit of stability, and I've done my best to call out the positive exceptions to that. There's sure be other underrated players who are performing well next time, and I'll give you some hobby context for those players.
A few Complex players such as (perhaps) German Ramirez should leak into my next update, but it's looking like more late starters such as Roc Riggio and Jose Salas will be the highlights.
As always, collect what you love.
Footer Note: I messed up in deleting Roman Anthony when compiling my initial list of over 800 – my brain probably connected him to having debuted. I've corrected this for this update, but he'll be off soon enough.
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