Oddly, this update features many players simply maintaining their Hobby+ score or even sliding just a hair. That’s not how it’s supposed to happen! Accumulation of counting stats are accounted for in the formula, so the overall scores should gradually rise. We can chalk this up to a collective mid-summer swoon, I suppose. That said, as always there are interesting things afoot.
For those subscribed at our 60 Tier, the The Hobby+ portion is updated in the PLive+ App Suite with pricing information and the season updates laid out below.
As always, if you have any questions on what Hobby+ is, or who is and isn't included, reference my Primer. Statistics updated as of 7/5. Let’s dive in!
Age-Dependent Power
A quick note on DSL HR leader Jose Castro. This is not the same Jose Castro of the Yankees that appears in 2024 Bowman Chrome. They’re a year apart, and both are repeating the DSL this year.
Emil Morales still has a bit too high of a K% to rank highly in Hobby+, but his power plus performance combination is showing more than any of his J15 2024 Bowman Chrome product-mates. Daiber De Los Santos appears here as well in his debut, but his K% and contact rate are abysmal.
The Cubs probably have regrets over trading Alfonsin Rosario to the Guardians – he’s definitely emerged in their system this year. I think it’s mostly tied to his packing on additional muscle to his already impressive physique – there’s very little change to his swing or approach otherwise. But it’s just fantastic that he’s shaved 7% off of his K% while moving up a level to High-A this year, and seeing better batted ball results. He’s always had impressive raw power that’s showed up in-game, but this year it’s leveled up to new heights. He’s not overly young for his level, and he’s only running a 66 contact%, but we’ll take the growth over those warts. An autograph-only subject in 2024 Bowman, overall his sales are still a bit inconsistent, so he’s worth a look for deals.
I’ve always liked Arnaldo Lantigua, and he’s popping up here without too many red flags. He did repeat the DSL last year but he showed everything you want to see in a repeater, and he’s continued to level up this year at the Complex. His trade to the Reds from the Dodgers this offseason hurts his market, as does not having autographs in 2023 Bowman Chrome. But if you’re looking for a prototype RF-power bat to speculate on, his cards are very cheap.
Last update I mentioned Tyson Lewis in a negative light. That’s not at all what I think of him, and he’s continued to perform very well since. His ceiling is one with at least a semblance of all 5 tools, and the power showing up as well as it is already a great sign that it’s the one that could carry him. He’s just going to take a minute to develop, and his cards in 2024 Bowman Draft are already priced more than appropriately for his risk.
Hitting Skill
Let’s hit the free square right away with Euribiel Angeles (2022 Bowman). He’s been on this leaderboard all season, not struggling and filling a middle infield role in AA. There’s not much power, but he’s also running a 96th percentile contact rate. I think he has a chance to reach the majors early next year. This isn’t necessarily a recommendation to buy because the ceiling isn’t high, but by the same measure when I see his autographs in the $2-4 range, it seems low.
Let’s talk about Mr. Hawke. Tommy has tools. Power isn’t one of them, but stealing 65 bases in 70 attempts is certainly eye-popping, as is a 98th percentile contact rate with an OBP well over .400 to go with it. Both marks are a progression from last year, and have now earned him a trip to High-A. The 2023 6th-Rounder who appeared in Bowman Draft that year had been at Low-A for his whole pro career prior, despite coming from Wake Forest. It’s due to his lack of impact at the plate, and not being a particularly strong fielder that’s hurt him. I’m here to say that his card values are starting to get to be a bit much for the type of player he is. This is a guy with 1 pro HR in 160 games, and less than 20% of his hits go for extra bases. Also consider that he’s now 23 with only a handful of games at High-A. So…he’s not going to get to AA this year. Wait until the offseason when they sink to around $5. It’ll inevitably happen.
Yohairo Cuevas (2024 Bowman Chrome) has taken a while to get here, and he’s still a work in progress. His long 6’3” (listed, seems bigger) frame comes with a lot of innate challenges. We shouldn’t be discounting him too heavily for being 21 in Low-A – not when it’s now just a little easier to see a path to success. His contact rate has maintained around 70% – not great for a player without a lot of game power – but he’s been much, much more disciplined this year since getting started in late April. It’s been enough to prove to himself that if he follows this path of passivity, he’s going to see positive batted ball results, as evidenced by his .020 jump in BABIP and .050 jump in average from last year. I specifically wanted to mention him here because if he ever learns how to blend his levers into his newfound approach, there’s some real power to be had. There’s not much to lose here for an autograph that can be had for around $5 at least.
Hobby+
There’s only two new players in the Top 10 this update as things really start to stabilize in full-season ball – the first is Michael Arroyo (2023 Bowman). His promotion to AA with teammate Lazaro Montes (also 2023 Bowman), paired with subsequent success, has them both moving up. Montes was 5 and moves to 3, and Arroyo moves from 11 to 5. I’ve already said it twice, but just…please stop sleeping on Arroyo, if you still are. Montes has always been a dude – his path to the majors won’t be immediate though. There’s not a lot of defensive value, and his contact rate needs to be proven out at a larger sample at the upper levels.
The second addition to the Top 10 is no stranger – Luis Peña (2025 Bowman) has picked up his performance just enough to sneak back in. For an 18 year old whose best tool is not power to slug near .500 at Low-A is truly impressive.
I don’t think I’ve mentioned Gabriel Gonzalez at all in my updates. His card market is very saturated for the type of player he is, with inclusion in Bowman’s Best, Bowman Sterling, Mega Box autographs in both 2023 and 2024, plus Panini and Leaf products. But I don’t blame Topps for this one at all. In my eyes at least, there’s always been just very little risk that he doesn’t pan out as a major leaguer of some sort, and this year he’s proving it may be as a starter. At age 21, he’s now spent roughly the same amount of time between High-A and AA, and he’s been even more impressive in Wichita, slashing .367/.460/.510. Most impressively, within that he’s running an 85% contact rate. There’s not a lot of speed, but his defensive home in RF is not in question because his arm is great. Don’t get too excited by the fact that he’s leading all sub-age-25 minor leaguers in doubles with 26. That number of doubles may continue, but he’s squarely a line-drive hitter who’s not trying to hit the ball over the fence. It’s not projectable to HR power. Where does that leave him for the hobby? It’s very easy to tell – with so much out there it’s hard to gain traction and his 2023 Bowman autographs are still under $20. It’s understandable. But when it all boils down to when he debuts, will that end up being a value? I think so.
There’s three interesting debuts on the leaderboard. First, we have Chase Harlan (2024 Draft), who is laying waste to the Complex in a way that no one is ignoring. He’s not staring down the barrel of a promotion with definite work to do defensively and Mairoshendrick Martinus in Low-A at his 3B position. But it’s clear that even through all his aggression at the plate, the Complex will not be a challenge on the offensive side. He’s mashed 18 XBH in 33 games – among the leaders in the league. He’s still quite raw, make no bones about it, but he’s showing every indication that he could become the next Dodgers diamond in the rough. Of course the hobby has already reacted to this, and his autographs are creeping up near $30 at this juncture. In my opinion, you have to be an ardent believer in both the skills and that he sticks in the Dodgers organization to make that a value.
Jeferson Quero (2021 BC) and Angel Genao (2023 Bowman) are the other two debuts. Both are consensus Top 100 prospects in real life baseball, and also lack the big power required to be in the highest echelon for the hobby. But man are these guys good hitters. Quero is only catching part-time as he eases back in from his significant shoulder injury, but that’s let his bat blossom a bit more – he’s running a sub-12 K% on the year. When he gets confidence back in his shoulder (usually 2nd year post-op), watch out. I would not expect him to have much of a debut this year. Genao is coming back from a less severe shoulder injury, and similarly, it’s fair to ask if his impact is a bit sapped at present. It’s not affecting his season performance though – he still has a 129 wRC+ at age 21 in AA.
Robert Calaz (2024 Bowman) has awoken. Since my last update he’s slashed .415/.449/.780 with 4 HR. It’s a great sign for him – I was starting to worry that there was just a book developed on him that exploited all his weaknesses, and he wasn’t going to be able to overcome them. It’s a great sign that his quality of contact has ticked back up, but just beware – there’s some pretty big swing-and-miss concerns yet. The ceiling has always been evident.
Dylan Beavers has an interesting hobby case, as his base autographs in 2022 Bowman Draft are short printed, and he has limited color (including no Refractors /499). He’s also now as close to the majors as one can get after going on a heater for the last few weeks at AAA. After starting late, altogether he’s up to .319/.407/.504 with 22 XBH and 19 SB in just 65 games. With the Orioles scuffling and having an older outfield, it’s easy to see him getting a call-up in August after a piece or two is traded.
Brennan Milone’s 2023 Bowman Chrome autographs are still under $10 – they’ve always been in that range, and it’s tough to figure why they’re still there. OK, not that tough– he’s an Athletic, 24 years old, power isn’t big, a bit positionless, and his bottom line isn’t loud. But there’s so much certainty that he makes it to the majors in a significant role. He's an OBP guy with a little bit of pop, and since my last update that OBP has been over .500 at AAA. There’s definite value potential here.
Yanquiel Fernandez (2022 BC) would have been a big riser in this update, but instead he graduates. Also graduating are Christian Moore (2024 Draft), Colson Montgomery (2022 Bowman), and Colby Thomas (2023 Bowman).
Conclusion
Promotions are a-coming for many prospects (such as the Tigers trio of Josue Briceno, Max Clark, and Kevin McGonigle who moved to AA the day after I imported my data). That’ll shift many Hobby+ scores notably – be ready for that in the next update. Perhaps more notably – trade season is upon us. After the All-Star break things should be kicking into high gear, and there are sure to be hobby-relevant players with Bowman likely to get moved. Sure, the leaderboards are performance-based and players moving organizations doesn’t impact that much. But this piece right here is the companion to that, and my goal will always be to give you context. That’s where the trades do matter - certain organizations are better at development, and others move players through their system more quickly. That makes a world of difference in the hobby, especially when you look at our tool in the App Suite where you will be able to see the dramatic pricing shifts.
Until next time – collect what you love!
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