Welcome back for the fifth update of the season of Hobby+! We’re past the All-Star break now, and in fact that break wreaked a little bit of havoc with sample sizes since the last update. But it made for some really dynamic movers as well. Teams also used the break to promote prospects to new levels, which in my formula, is another cause for a big rise (if the sample is relevant).
For those subscribed at our 60 Tier, the The Hobby+ portion is updated in the PLive+ App Suite with pricing information as well as the season updates laid out below.
As always, if you have any questions on what Hobby+ is, or who is and isn't included, reference my Primer.
Statistics in this update are updated as of 7/19.
Hitting Skill
Now a three time leader on this board, I suppose I should at least mention Victor Rodrigues (2025 Bowman). A 20 year old in Low-A, his OBP on the season sits at a very impressive .440, and his K% has been well under 15% all season. It’s just that .074 ISO that’s sort of a massive flag at this juncture. When he sinks into his back hip, his 6’2” frame provides some legit thump in his line-drive oriented swing. The problem is that he stays upright most of the time, content to slash low line drives all over the field – and obviously with such a low K% he’s great at getting his hands into position. I think his best hope to access power more consistently is to move off of catcher – that’ll take his fatigue level down (whether he realizes it or not) and hopefully he can focus more on hitting whatever ceiling his bat has. His defense behind the plate hasn’t been good, so that may come sooner rather than later. Or the Dodgers could leave him back there for a few more years since 1B is the only other option. But, he is basically a free square if you’re so inclined to chase him.
This section really has a lot of stability, so I’ll pick another mainstay here. Hendry Mendez (2022 Bowman) may only have an ISO of .143 on the season, but that mark is a career high since coming stateside by a considerable margin. It’s because he’s elevating the ball just a little better this year – his GB% has dropped by 8%, which is good because his speed is not so great. What is great, and always has been, is his ability to make contact. In his first year at AA, he’s running a 98th% contact rate and a 97th% SwStr. His bat, simply put, is going to play, and it’s great to see him finally get to a little bit of power. The single biggest drawback is that he is not a good defender. A LF-only bat without average power is likely a 4th OF – it’s why his autos remain in the $15 range and are appropriately priced as such. But as far as him making the majors? Yeah, I think he has that floor. And who knows how he shows out once he gets there!
I want to call out an archetype that we shouldn’t be shying away from. Let’s call it the Cobb Hightower (2025 Bowman) archetype. This type of player is one who has a solid approach at the plate, is young, and is just not seeing positive batted ball results. Especially when this player has a loud tool (like Hightower’s speed), there can be just fantastic buying opportunities in the hobby. Often there’s just one thing that isn’t clicking quite yet. With Hightower it’s his feel for the barrel. Hightower himself isn’t much of a sleeper, so who are a few other players who fit this archetype? Mario Baez (2024 BC), Kendall George, and Adrian Santana (both 2023 Draft).
Age Dependent Power
Richard Matic (2025 Bowman) and Adolfo Sanchez (2024 BC) are both repeating the DSL, which is a big hobby turnoff. However, they’ve also been very impressive this year, and not just in the surface level statline. With Matic there’s been a change to his setup. He no longer has a huge hitch in his hands, instead starting with them high, which really simplifies things and has led to some excellent quality of contact. There’s still swing-and-miss concerns, and he’s still lower on the defensive spectrum, but if he’s accessing power (which he certainly has) as a Yankee there deserves to be some hobby interest. Sanchez looks like he’s just outgrown the league – a predictable outcome for a player who was one of the top J15’s last year and did post a .356 OBP (just poor batted ball results). It was an odd choice to have him repeat in the first place, as he does turn 19 in September as well. Anyhow, his .333/.469/.491 slash is now buoyed by a BB:K ratio around 1, a huge tick up from his 34 K% last year.
A 12th Round pick in 2023, Anthony Huezo was drafted as a prep project by the Astros. His inclusion in 2024 Bowman was an odd one, and he remains a project with a K% over 30 at the Complex. But he’s also seeing some gains from a results standpoint – his ISO is an excellent .238, and his batting average has ticked up by .074. That’s only to .230 mind you – he was completely overwhelmed last year, but it’s fair to say that’s changed this year. If you’re so inclined to take the risk, there are cases of his autograph parallels being had for under $10 recently.
Ever since he was in 2024 Bowman Chrome, there has been interest in Eduardo Beltre. Hitting 11 HR with a .292 ISO in the DSL as a seven figure J15 will garner it every day of the week. But this year has been a little bit of a struggle in the Complex, as he’s hit way too many fly balls. I’m just here to say – if you were in on him last year, you should absolutely still be. It’s only the fly balls that are causing issues. I think he’s a tweak away from getting back on track to having a really good power-centric hobby profile. And if his autograph price slips just a little more, they’re a steal considering that potential.
I mentioned Alfredo Duno (2023 Bowman Chrome) a few updates ago as a favorite hobby-catcher prospect, but at this point we can strip away all the “for-a-catcher” caveats because his season thus far has been exceptional. Among teenagers, he’s one of only five hitters to hit 30 XBH thus far. Among those five his K:BB ratio is the best, good for a .411 OBP. Behind the dish he’s made strides as well (for better or worse hobby-wise). This is a player who I think is a sleeping giant with big-time HR potential and will probably hit enough to access his power. While he definitely has some cost to acquire at this juncture, there’s many collecting options and some massive growth potential.
Carolina teammates Braylon Payne (2024 Draft) and Josh Adamczewski (2024 BC) have taken different paths to their nice bumps this update, both due to showing some power. Payne had a rough go of it from May through June, hitting under the Mendoza line with a K% over 30 in that span. However, he’s been on base in every game multiples times since the calendar flipped to July – a 10 game span that includes an OBP over .500 and 6 XBH (3 HR). Adamczewski missed two months with a back injury - this is only his second update with enough at bats to make my leaderboard. But he’s been great the whole time, and it’s not skewed by rehab appearances at the Complex. Notably, he’s been able to elevate the ball more while continuing to show he has a great feel for the barrel. Both of these prospects aren’t exactly cheap, but they’re now re-emerging and showing us exactly why that’s the case.
Hobby+
Samuel Basallo (2023 BC) remains on top in this update, but it’s more than that. He’s put some daylight between himself and the #2 prospect. In fact, in the top 35 of Hobby+ he gained more in his score than all but two players. Unfortunately he’s now out due to an oblique injury and he had the All-Star break before that, but in his 5 games since my last update he’s hit 3 HR and hit 3 doubles with a .500 OBP. That’ll get the job done every day of the week. I’m sure I’ll have more on him in the next update, as the Orioles will definitely use this injury as a means to hold him down until September at this juncture. Is that commentary even snarky? Just seems like a smart choice considering the state of the team.
Within their own games, Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo (both 2023 Bowman) aren’t exactly seeing AA as a massive challenge, so if you’re still lukewarm on their hobby outlook – don’t be. Both of these guys have very bright futures and could be up in Seattle as soon as next year.
With 7 XBH and a promotion to AA in his 8 games since my last update, Jefferson Rojas (2023 Bowman) shoots way up the leaderboard. He’s been the real deal for the entirety of his minor league career, and now with absolute certainty has vaulted past the slower-to-develop Cristian Hernandez in the Cubs’ SS depth chart. His ISO on the season is above .200 with a K% hovering around just 15% – it’s just fantastic for a player who just turned 20 in April. His cards aren’t cheap, but for as good as he’s been for as long as he’s been, I think there’s a lot of room for his cards to grow past the ~$40 base auto where he is now. Plus he has several ancillary options that are more affordable. I say go for it, especially if you’re a Cub fan who doesn't have any pieces!
Jett Williams (2022 Draft) also has 7 XBH in 8 games since my last update. I haven’t mentioned him for two months in these updates, but he’s been hanging around this whole time. This recent surge has pushed his season line very close to that .300/.400/.500 slash we all want to see. All told he’s a 21 year old that’s been at AA the whole year with dynamic speed and plays up the middle for a New York market. So his autos are pushing close to $100, right? Nope! They’re mostly in the $60-80 range. There’s still room in his cards to grow. The long-standing complaints on his stature limiting his dynamism should definitely be fading now.
Josue Briceño has been near the top of the leaderboard all year, as has Kevin McGonigle since he debuted. But I haven’t written much about their teammate Max Clark (2023 Draft), who pops up this update with a promotion to AA (like those teammates). He hasn’t been hitting the ball with incredible consistency since that promotion, but he’s already hit 2 HR in 5 games. For a guy who only has 9 on the season, it’s a nice mark to see that the new level shouldn’t affect his impact at least. There remains very few red flags in Clark’s profile – he’s as solid of a prospect as there is and worth what the hobby is demanding on his cards.
I feel like my personal Arnaldo Lantigua drumbeat has been loud. But he remains virtually invisible to the hobby. This is a guy who has no autographs in 2023 Bowman Chrome (or since), which usually helps his Chrome cards. But that has just not been the case with Lantigua – higher numbered cards can still be found for under $8. Unnumbered Shimmer Refactors can be found for under $5. In both cases, sales are fairly infrequent. Lantigua is age-appropriate for the Complex at 19, and he has now surged to a league leading 10 HR. No one has more XBH than his 24. He has a big body with holes in his swing, but his K% has been in the low 20’s all year. Does this really sound like a prospect whose cards should be this cheap? That’s all I’ve got. I can’t really say much more!
Spencer Jones (2023 Bowman) and Carson Williams (2021 Draft) are two prospects with ugly season-long K numbers who are playing much better recently at AAA. There’s a long chronicle of Jones’ low contact% not being tenable to project as an everyday MLB bat, and he is already 24 years old. But the New York market absolutely does not care at all, and the explosion in his card prices is getting a little silly for a player who has not fundamentally changed (I think he’s just running hot right now). Not to knock Jones’ defense - he is a very good CF defender which gives him the floor of getting to the majors - but Carson WIlliams’ glove at SS gives him the floor being handed a chance as an MLB regular. The Rays are notorious slow-players to that effect though, and Williams had yet to prove himself offensively at AAA. For the last month he’s changed that narrative with a .290/.410/.652 – that’s good for a 172 wRC+ in those 83 PA. His K% is still too high in that span, but now there’s legitimate hope that the defense and power deodorize it in the majors. Maybe in September?
It’s hard to find deals on Yankees prospects, but perhaps I can interest you in a Yankees prospect who’s not a Yankee on his cards? Jace Avina’s autographs in 2023 Bowman are still only around $10. He’s had a major power surge this month after returning from an injury in late June, and has also been promoted to AA. To boot, the guy has always been an on-base machine despite having a fair amount of swing-and-miss. He’s the type of player who will run hot and cold, but even in the cold streaks he’s still providing offensive value. There’s a lot to like for the hobby. The floor still isn’t all that high, but there is definite potential for a big league regular here.
There aren’t many graduation with this update. Kenedy Corona (2023 Bowman) filled in with the Astros for a few games, but he hasn’t been playing very well at AAA. Brice Matthews (2024 Bowman) is the more significant Astro call-up, and he made his mark on Monday with a 2 HR game. Cody Freeman, one of the more obvious names from 2025 Bowman to predict getting the call sometime this year, also moved up to the Guardians after the All-Star break.
Conclusion
Just as I thought in my last update, promotions played a major role in prospects rising up the leaderboards. There’s certainly more in store as the season progresses. I’m exited to see how prospects surge as we start to enter the home stretch of the MiLB season!
Until next time, collect what you love!
Discussion