I hate to interrupt everyone’s postseason baseball, but as promised, it’s time to wrap up 2025 Hobby+, told through the visage of class superlatives!
The PLive+ App Suite has been updating with Dahl’s price tracking for 2025 Bowman Chrome prospects, and it also now includes my final Hobby+ update as well. For those subscribed at our 60 Tier, you can see how Hobby+ relates to price tracking and everything in between. Here’s a brief glimpse at the top!
I’m absolutely skipping a bunch of worthwhile players, including a graduating Bryce Eldridge (2023 Draft). I did do a final leaderboard though (just Hobby+ this time) so you can get a complete look at who my formula says who performed the best this year. let me know if you have any questions about anyone you don't see!
Most Likely to Succeed (Real-Life Baseball)
These likely to succeed awards will always go to a player close to the majors, because they’re closer to their final forms as mature ballplayers – we can see what they’re going to be. Kevin McGonigle (2025 Bowman) largely stayed healthy for the first time this year (after a delayed start) and he proved that nothing he did in smaller spurts was a fluke, while improving his power profile considerably. It’s still not, like, big power though. He’s just a hitting savant who will get the most out of what he’s got. For players with a sub-14.5 K%, he had more XBH than any player in the minors, and he did it across three levels. He’s hung around near the top of my Hobby+ Leaderboard consistently since he debuted in Update 3, finishing at #2. There’s still the little drawback in his lack of speed on the bases, but he’s even answered defensive questions this year and handled a full season at SS (though he could still move to 2B or 3B in time). He’s a good bet to debut sometime next year now, especially with proving his chops at 3B in the AFL.
Most Likely to Succeed (Hobby)
This is a better superlative than McGonigle’s – don’t get it twisted. This is a hobby-based formula and tool after all. Konnor Griffin (2024 Draft) answered the question to “what’s the hit tool gonna look like” with a resounding “who cares” because the contact he made was just so loud with so much regularity. Nobody minds that your BB% is under 10% when your OBP is still around .400. He’s not getting fooled by much these days – and you don’t need to have an elite contact rate when you’re making smart swing decisions like he did all season. That showed up in a big way when, as a 19 year old making his pro debut this year, he was able to rise all the way to AA. All told, no teen hit more HR's than Griffin’s 21. No teen scored more than Griffin’s 117 runs. No teen had more than Griffin’s 94 RBI's. No teen who spent all year in full-season ball had a higher average than Griffin’s .333. Asbel Gonzalez was the only teen to steal more bases than Griffin’s 65. He simply impacts the game in every way imaginable, and in showing out as he has, nothing in his profile looks to be worse than above average. Could the hit tool slip down to average? Sure. But there’s so much dynamism that nobody is going to care one iota. He looks like a hobby superstar, and though his cards are quite expensive already, there’s not really a ceiling to them for a player like this.
Kaizen Award for Continuous Improvement
The question this award asks is - what players consistently improved their Hobby+ Score throughout the year? I allowed a small dip (or two if they weren’t consecutive). But if there was a big dip or plateauing, which is easy to do for players near the top, those players were excluded from consideration. It’s a fun category to consider, so I’ll give out one for each of the full-season levels we care about for the hobby.
Esmil Valencia (2024 Bowman) never sniffed anything close to any leaderboard this year. That’s because he’s a player with a highly aggressive approach and not much pop – those things combined leave him off the radar hobby-wise. But should he be completely off the radar? He does know how to use his wheels to great effect both on the bases and in the OF – he really exploded in that aspect this year, going from 16 to 64 SB and shifting his defensive reps in CF from 52% to 85%. He also really took off after his trade to the Marlins in the Jesus Sanchez deal, making a minor swing adjustment and seeing much better batted ball results. Like I said – he’s aggressive up there, and that aggression hides a below-average contact rate. But does it matter if his feel for the barrel is developing as we think it is? His ceiling is probably only that of a 4th OF, and he’s headed to his age-21 season without any High-A experience. Tread lightly, but with his parallel autos in 2024 Bowman occasionally available under $20, there’s some buying opportunity. Honorable mention to Dakota Jordan (2024 Bowman Draft), who only doesn’t get the award because he’s two years older and was at the same level as Valencia. His season was consistently really good after a slow start, as you’d expect for a 22-year old at Low-A.
The High-A Kaizen award goes to Won-Bin Cho (2022 BC). His season absolutely does not stand out overall, but consider his monthly splits: April - .161/.266/.250. May - .220/.313/.254. June - .279/.400/.313. July - .276/.364/.431. August .263/.372/.455. Talk about having every mark in the spectrum of struggle, adjustment, improvement, then really figuring it out – note that SLG creeping up every month. It’s still not all that easy to see where or if he has a tool that will end up as above average, but in showing what he did, I have faith that his bag of average tools will carry him to the majors in time, perhaps even as a starter in RF or even CF. Believe it or not his cards are even cheaper than Valencia, and I see his ceiling as a notch higher. Again tread lightly, but this is an obvious buying opportunity.
The AA award winner here is Christian Cerda (2023 BC). Like a lot of catchers he ran out of gas toward the end of the season, but there was still a maintaining of performance even through August, before a pair of injuries truly ended his season a few weeks early. There’s some serious sleeper potential with Cerda. There was quite a bit of struggle early in the season – through 49 games he had a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.130 ISO. There was no real hot streak, but he consistently just kept playing well from then on. That ISO was over .300 the rest of the way. He increased his season cumulative OBP by .045. Most impressively, he maintained his above average contact rate through it all. He has power – no one is doubting that eventually it could be above average or better. But if his improvements throughout the season are marks of a player whose hit tool is moving up to something like below average – he could be more than just a backup catcher. (And his arm probably gives him that floor at least.) Not a bad ascent at all for a former UDFA. His cards cost almost nothing at auction, even parallels. I won’t be surprised if I find myself with some pieces before the end of winter.
Most Punctual
Running parallel but different to improvement, who was the most consistent throughout the year staying on time and productive throughout? Hard to argue with Colt Emerson (2023 Draft). Hey not all the players I’m writing about here can be sneaky hobby names, right? His season started on the slow side, but having an OBP in the mid-.300’s at age 19 at High-A for two months is nothing to be ashamed of. Forgiving a brief period of adjustment to AA, Emerson never dropped below a .360 OBP or .420 SLG after June 15, and threw up a lot of ascending 10 day rolling averages in that time. It shows up in my Hobby+ scores with a lot of subtle increases. He was so impressive at AA that he finished the year at AAA. – not bad for a guy who just turned 20 in July. He’s always been good, but his profile is on the rise – to me his power now looks like at least an average future asset, and coupled with everything else he already had, we could easily be looking at a future All-Star. It might not be the super loud numbers that we love in the hobby, but Mariners fans especially should be more excited about him than ever.
Class Clown
Nothing more hilarious than Rainiel Rodriguez hitting 20 HR in 84 games as an 18 year old, the majority of which was against competition much older than him, all while showing some fantastic defensive capability at the toughest position in the sport. Why is this guy only the #4 2025 Bowman Chrome seller again? That’s the biggest joke of all (in my opinion of course). Nuf said.
Teacher’s Pet
If we’re calling me the teacher, my favorite prospect this year (at least partially) through the lens of Hobby+ is Hayden Alvarez (2025 Bowman). But Max, he doesn’t show up high on any leaderboards. It’s true, his power hasn’t shown up at all yet (he’s 120 in Age-Dependent Power). But he does make appearances on the other two, at 73 in Hitting Skill and 86 in Hobby+. Roldy Brito (who doesn’t have cards) and the low-hanging Emil Morales (2024 BC) aside, for my money there wasn’t a better player who ascended from significant playing time in the Complex to Low-A who continued to play well at the new level. In fact, it’d be hard to argue that he wasn’t better at Low-A. His K% dropped, and all three marks of his slash line increased. It was only 20 games though, so his season slash of .340/.459/.435 is what’s most important. I mentioned his power not showing up – I truly think that’s a “yet”. This kid is 6’3” 190 lbs – not the body of a punch-and-judy type by any means. He just needs to learn how to use his levers more and get a little stronger. Coupled with above average speed and a clear ability to play CF, you can see why I like the guy so much. His autos are still under $20, but the cat has been let out of the bag a little bit and the hobby sharps are pretty keen on him. There’s definitely room for improvement still – I don’t think Alvarez’s ceiling is really in focus yet.
Most Athletic
All these guys are great athletes of course. Way more athletic than I or my progeny, or progeny’s progeny ever has been or will be. Should I just give this award to Kendall George (2023 Draft) who stole 100 bases this year? I thought about it, but nah – that’s not fun – he had less than 20 XBH on the year and his hobby relevance is tied mostly to being a Dodger. I know – his hit is good too, but that lack of power left his Hobby+ score outside the Top 100. That leaves us in the position of Konnor Griffin being that obvious name, but I won't repeat players in this.
Instead I’ll use it as an excuse to talk about A.J. Ewing (2023 Draft). I don’t think anyone had his status as a .233 hitting, sub-70% SB success rate player exploding into hitting .315 with a 86% SB success rate. He was aggressive with it too – he ended up with 70 SB on the year, and with (10) triples added in it’s easy to now put his speed in an elite bucket. A more mature approach at the plate yielded a contact rate that’s squarely above average and, obviously, much better batted ball results. There was a month-long period where he wasn’t hitting for impact – I love looking at what players look like while struggling. Well, in that period he still had a .380 OBP and stole 12 bases. He knows exactly who he wants to be as a player at maturity, and how to get there. It has come at the cost of never being able to hunt for power, but there is the air of a ceiling of something like 2025 versions of Maikel Garcia or Brice Turang. Of course, he’s an OF where anecdotally there’s more positional opportunity. This is a guy with real dynamism and a fairly high hobby ceiling, even without big power. There’s not much of a true buying opportunity as the Mets’ market is quite strong, but he’s a worthwhile name to consider at any price.
Most Likely to Stand on the Surface of the Sun
Yeehaw. There’s a lot of candidates for hottest hot streak, but none better than Ralphy Velazquez (2023 Draft). I wrote about it in my update when it happened. It’s hard to peg exactly when he really started playing well, but after May 30 he only had consecutive hitless games once. He’s an aggressive hitter so his OBP wasn’t over .400, but the SLG over .500 and average over .300 from that point forward are marks of a great power hitter. But nothing any prospect did all season matches his hot streak from August 8-17, when he slashed .545./.625/1.303. Eight games, 40 plate appearances, 12 XBH. Those are little league numbers. It’s even more impressive that he did this while moving up a level to AA, at age 20. His cards have already sunk back down to a level where if you can withstand the risk of his aggressive hitting style and the cold streaks that may come with it, he’s absolutely worth it (the Cleveland card market also helps). He’s almost certain to make the big-leagues at a young age. While Kyle Manzardo and C.J. Kayfus stand as a barrier to the majors, it may be Velazquez who proves to be the best offensive asset of the three by this point next year.
Most Underrated
Underrated players who ended up near the top my Hobby+ leaderboard such as Gabriel Gonzalez (2023 Bowman) and Jose Fernandez (2024 BC) are absolutely deserving here. But I've written about both of those guys in my updates more than once, so in my eyes at least, they're not underrated. Oh their prices are, no doubt, but that's Dahl's domain. I'm using my formula to see whose good performance and card market don't align, while also taking into account the reality of who a player is.
With that in mind, this award goes to Brandon Winokur (2023 Draft), and in explaining why I'll mention a bunch of other considerations. His biggest flaws are his chase and contact rate, but if if can make an improvement even half of what Joshua Baez showed (2022 Bowman, whose cards have exploded into non-sleeper territory), then Winokur could be flirting with 5 tools (with the hit still perhaps lagging). I know that's a stretch for a player with such a low average, but to me it's definitely more believable than to think a player like Luke Adams (2024 Bowman, who I think is a greater-than-the-sum-of-his-parts type) has that skill set. If he makes those improvements is he potentially better than Eduardo Quintero (2025 Bowman, who had a massive breakout but is still somehow undervalued as a Dodger)? No, not so much. I think there's only one potential plus tool with Winokur – but at least it's power. That one fact puts him above guys like Mike Sirota (2024 Draft, who might have no tools below average), Yassel Soler (2024 BC, who's might end up with significant hit and pop, but lacks dynamism), and Jhonny Level (2025 Bowman, who for now proved the pessimistic scouts correct on his lack of dynamism). The deciding factor for me with Winokur isn't just that he showed a significant fraction of that immense natural raw power based on his 6'6" frame with 40 XBH and 17 HR in 122 games. It isn't that he did everything at High-A, which is great for a 20 YO. It's that he ticks the boxes of being a valuable defensive piece, be it in CF, SS, or 3B. That will keep him relevant to the organization for several years, and we're already seeing that with his playing time in the AFL this year. For an autograph that's currently right around $10, there's not much risk and some fantastic reward potential. Please, go for it!
Best Incomplete Grade
When Demetrio Crisantes (2023 BC) went down to a labral tear in his non-throwing shoulder in late May, his stats (a .252 average) didn’t stand out in a traditional sense. But man did he ever look like a guy who was on the precipice of a breakout, and my formula pegged his hitting skill near the top of the leaderboards (he still sits at #16). Coupled with his showing “enough” pop – his ISO was up a tick – I think he was headed to AA before his 21st birthday. He’s had some pretty high highs in the hobby already for a player of his ilk – hitting in the mid-.300’s for an entire season (last year) will do that. But as this isn’t his first major injury, his cards have sunk down a bit already. I can imagine they will fall further this offseason, at which point I will absolutely be buying.
Best Short-Season Performance
Hobby+ isn’t kind to players who don’t play a full season, and that includes all those juicy DSL and Complex players who are just a little too young or too raw to see time in full season ball. Since the contraction of minor league baseball, teams have been very keen on moving their good players to full season ball from the Complex at the conclusion of that season, so there’s really no one that didn’t make it to Low-A from the Complex that performed exceptionally well, unless Javier Osorio (who was too old for the Complex to begin with) or Edward Lantigua (not much impact) are your jam. So this year, this is a DSL award.
By my Hobby+ score there are three clear standouts that are clustered together – Elian Peña, Cristian Arguelles, and Cris Rodriguez (all 2025 BC). Arguelles was a repeater, so while he was truly great and has improved his standing as a prospect significantly, that’ll serve as a sort of tiebreaker which he loses. Cris Rodriguez showed that his power ceiling is exactly what we thought it was (that is to say, excellent), and in the last few weeks he started showing signs that maybe he’s a better hitter than we all thought.
But Elian Peña had such a great two month stretch in his season, that this award goes to him. I’m not a believer in the adage that “it’s not how you start, but how you finish”. All the context matters. Ask Julio Rodriguez fantasy managers about that one. But in this case, I think we should put his start in the back of our minds and look at what he did from June 19 through the end of the year. It was a whopping .352/.472/.627. Included in that is more BB than K, and an above average contact rate for the level. His speed (22 SB) is a bit of a mirage and he’s more likely to move off of SS than stick there, but when you’re raking like he was, none of that really matters. I’m excited to see what he can do in the Complex and Low-A next year.
Conclusion
A wrap-up to the wrap-up, as it were. This was fun this year. I absolutely plan on doing Hobby+ in the future! To me it's a great way to track performances and make decisions on whether to go in on a prospect or not. Is it perfect? No, because not everything hinges on performance! But there is value in it, and I trust my formula to find players that some folks aren't. Hopefully my leaderboards have been of use this season to you. I look forward to next year. Until then, collect what you love!
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