The college season is in full swing with conference tournaments just around the corner, and high school baseball is reaching its peak across the country, making it the perfect time to roll out a fresh mock draft.
The Draft Team hopped on a call and spent several hours breaking down the entire first round, team by team, crafting a scenario based purely on how we currently see things unfolding with just over two and a half months to go. As we get closer to July, future mocks will feature more intel from conversations with industry sources, but this version is grounded in our own evaluations and projections. Another draft board expansion is also on the horizon, likely landing around Selection Monday.
Mike Rizzo, Kris Kline, and the Washington Nationals have never been afraid to take risks in the draft, consistently targeting players with the highest ceilings, as they did with Dylan Crews, Elijah Green, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg.
In this mock, we project the Nationals to select Ethan Holliday with the No. 1 overall pick, securing a future cornerstone for the left side of the field, whether at third base or eventually transitioning to his father’s old position in left field as he continues to grow into his frame. Holliday has been electric this spring on the Oklahoma prep circuit, launching home runs with increasing regularity as his power begins to fully emerge. His track record as a hitter, combined with huge raw power upside, makes him a relatively safe bet to come off the board early.
Nonetheless, options like Seth Hernandez and the top player on our board, Jamie Arnold, could also be in play here too. However, given that the Angels and Mariners, who pick right behind Washington, have more pool money could complicate things. One dark horse to watch at this spot: Eli Willits, who has been extremely impressive this spring.
Ethan Holliday Draft Report
B/T: L-R
Height: 6-4
Weight: 210
Draft Age: 18.04
Hometown: Stillwater, Oklahoma
Commitment: Oklahoma State University (OSU)
Summary: The younger brother of 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday and the second son of former Cardinals star Matt Holliday, Ethan is already showing greater physicality and louder offensive tools than Jackson did at the same stage. Ethan appears to have inherited more of his father’s physical traits, and scouts believe his long-term profile may resemble Matt’s more than Jackson’s, with more power and strength over twitch and athleticism.
Offensively, Holliday’s toolset is among the loudest in the class. His swing is buttery smooth and effortless, with easy bat speed and an advanced feel for impact. He consistently posts triple-digit exit velocities in-game, including a 111-mph rocket during the 18U Team USA trials, and has the raw strength to project 30+ home runs annually at maturity. There are still areas for development, though. Holliday can be overly passive in his approach, and his swing can get long, leading to some swing-and-miss. That said, the power upside is enormous.
Scouts expect him to continue filling out physically, which should only further enhance his impact potential at the plate. The biggest developmental priority will be tightening up the approach and shortening the swing (a similar issue Matt had in the Rockies system after being drafted), but the offensive ceiling is significant.
Defensively, most evaluators project Holliday to eventually move off shortstop due to his size, with third base seen as the most natural fit. He moves fluidly on the dirt with solid range and a strong arm, traits that would play well at the hot corner. Long-term, some even envision a path similar to his father’s, beginning his pro career as a third baseman before potentially shifting to left field as he adds more weight and mass.
While he may not be the consensus 1.1 pick right now, Holliday is firmly in the mix as the top high school player in the class and a strong candidate to go in the top five. If he heads to college, he’s committed to Oklahoma State, where his uncle, Josh Holliday, is the head coach, and his grandfather coached before him.
2. Los Angeles Angels: LHP Jamie Arnold
Photo via FSU Baseball
School: Florida State University
Pick Value: $10,252,700
At this spot, we expect the Angels to stick to their usual approach and target a college player. With the Nationals passing on Jamie Arnold, this feels like a "sprint to the podium" situation for the Angels to grab the standout southpaw from Tallahassee.
Arnold has the polish and pitchability to move quickly through a system, and we see a real possibility that he could be the first player from this draft class to reach the majors, potentially as early as Opening Day 2026.
If Arnold is selected first overall or pulled down the board for a larger bonus, other names to consider here include Jace LaViolette, Liam Doyle, and Aiva Arquette. Should the Angels pursue an underslot strategy, as their past precedent suggests, players like Wehiwa Aloy and Devin Taylor could also come into play. However, we think they keep it simple and safe by taking Arnold.
Jamie Arnold Draft Report
B/T: L-L
Height: 6-1
Weight: 192
Draft Age: 21.3
Hometown: Tampa, Florida
Summary: After a challenging freshman season in Tallahassee, Arnold redefined himself in 2024, emerging as one of college baseball’s most dominant arms. He struck out 159 batters over 105.2 innings while posting a 2.98 ERA, proving his ability to handle a starter’s workload and thrive in high-pressure situations. His combination of arsenal, command, and starter traits positions him as a legitimate contender to be the first pitcher selected this July, with real 1:1 potential.
On the bump, Arnold pitches with confidence and presence, featuring an athletic, low-launch delivery with a 4’4” release height and crossfire action, enhancing deception and extension down the mound. His mechanics incorporate significant scap retraction, yet he remains on time with his arm, creating a tough angle to the plate with a slingy release. He’s a competitor in every sense, attacking hitters with a fearless approach and a sharp understanding of how to use his stuff. His fastball underwent one of the most significant jumps in the country, now sitting 93-95 MPH, touching 97, with elite arm-side run averaging 17 inches, sometimes exceeding 20 inches. He also mixes in a four-seam fastball that plays effectively off the sinker, providing a different look with more ride and less run. His heater’s strong carry and flat approach angle allow it to play up in the zone, making it a true bat-missing weapon. Arnold’s mid-80s sweeper is his bread and butter, a plus pitch with 14 inches of sweep and minimal drop. It’s a true swing-and-miss offering that he lands for strikes, with enough depth to backfoot right-handers and keep lefties off balance.
His changeup, once a liability, has become a legitimate weapon after an extensive offseason overhaul at Driveline. Now featuring 9 inches of drop and 10 inches of run, it mimics the action of a two-plane breaking ball from a righty, giving him a devastating third pitch. While command of the changeup is still developing, its separation from his sinker has unlocked a new dimension in his arsenal.
Arnold has evolved into more than just a high-upside arm, he’s a pitcher who embraces the grind, adapts, and finds ways to improve. With his combination of power stuff, refined mechanics, and competitive mindset, he not only has frontline starter potential but also the presence and work ethic of a future big-league ace. His ability to generate swings and misses at an elite rate, combined with his improved velocity and deceptive delivery, makes him one of the most exciting arms in the 2025 draft class.
3. Seattle Mariners: RHPSeth Hernandez
Photo via @seth_hernandez_22 on IG
School: Corona HS
Pick Value: $9,504,400
Seattle currently holds the largest bonus pool in the draft, and how they choose to allocate that money will be one of the key storylines to watch within the top 10 picks. The Mariners could go in several directions, including using their pool advantage to pull Jamie Arnold down the board, viewing him as a quick-moving rotation piece (especially with ongoing trade rumors surrounding Luis Castillo and taking the route of locking up Logan Gilbert and George Kirby long-term, all hypothetical).
However, how much the Angels love Arnold could complicate that plan. Given their history of leaning prep-heavy, there’s no guarantee Seattle will have the chance to pull Arnold down. In this mock, we project the Mariners to pivot and select the top prep arm in the draft, Seth Hernandez, aiming to develop him into the ace many believe he can become.
Other names to consider here include Eli Willits and Ethan Holliday (if available).
Seth Hernandez Draft Report
B/T: R-R
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
Draft Age: 19.00
Hometown: Chino, California
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Summary: At this stage of the 2025 draft cycle, no arm in the class stands out more than Hernandez. He’s both physically and mentally ahead of his peers on the mound, and while his future likely lies on the bump, his raw tools as a position player gives him a legitimate two-way for consideration early in the process.
At 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, Hernandez has plenty of projection remaining, and his operation is as effortless as they come. He’s a fluid, athletic mover with elite arm speed and a loose, explosive delivery from a high three-quarter slot. The fastball currently sits 95–97 mph and has touched triple digits in shorter outings. As he continues to add strength, he projects to sit comfortably in the upper-90s with strong extension and the ability to challenge hitters at the top of the zone.
The changeup is among the best in the country, a low-80s parachute with heavy sink and excellent separation off the fastball, flashing plus consistently. He also mixes in a big, top-to-bottom curveball in the upper-70s and a cutter/slider hybrid in the mid-to-upper 80s, both spinning north of 2,700 RPMs. His command of secondaries still needs some refinement, but he fills the zone and misses bats with all four offerings.
Offensively, Hernandez brings a loud toolset that’s often overlooked due to his upside on the mound. He shows impressive hand speed and bat control, with flashes of above-average raw power, especially to the pull side. Scouts have expressed concern over his exaggerated load and inconsistent performance against quality breaking balls, which clouds his long-term offensive profile. However, he's shown consistent barrel control, leveraged swings, and has been one of the top performers at the plate early in the spring on the West Coast for Corona HS.
Defensively, Hernandez is a 6.8 runner with a cannon for an arm, giving him real defensive value in the outfield. If the pitching doesn’t fully develop, he offers a legitimate fallback as a corner outfielder with pop and defensive upside.
Overall, Hernandez profiles with a Michael Lorenzen-type floor, but he’s already more polished than Lorenzen coming out of college, giving him a significantly higher ceiling. He’s a premier name in the 2025 class with two-way intrigue, but the upside on the mound is what separates him from the pack. If he gets to campus, he'd be eligible as a sophomore at Vanderbilt in 2027.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
