The 2025 MLB Draft is wide open, but that didn't stop our team from spending hours and spent several hours breaking down the entire first round, team by team, crafting a scenario based on how we currently see things unfolding based on our evaluations, team history, and intel from conversations with industry sources.
Here's our Mock Draft board, analysis of each pick & player reports follow.
Want to create your own Mock Draft? Simulate different scenarios for your favorite team? Check out our Mock Draft Simulator tool:
With recent leadership changes occurring just this week, the Nationals find themselves in a tough spot with a potentially franchise altering decision to make. Our general consensus here was between Anderson and Ethan Holliday, however we felt the sweeping changes across the front office may encourage the draft team to pick up a player who won’t spend a ton of time in the minors, ultimately supplementing a good young core that needs a pick-me-up. Anderson provides the best blend of projection, stuff, and performance of anyone in the class and could realistically be up and pitching in their rotation at some point next year. It’s perhaps not the highest ceiling or your typical number one pick, but their securing one of the best players in the class that checks a lot of boxes for their future.
Kade Anderson Draft Report
B/T: L-L
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180
Draft Age: 21.0
Hometown: Madisonville, Louisiana
Summary: A highly touted prep arm in the 2023 class, Anderson withdrew from the draft after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. Now a draft-eligible sophomore, he carved out a pivotal role on the LSU pitching staff in 2024, bouncing between the bullpen and rotation before settling in as the number two starter in 2025. Anderson’s body is highly projectable, and his quick arm suggests higher velocity gains in the near future.
Working from a high three-quarters slot, he features a clean arm swing and repeatable mechanics. Anderson begins his arsenal with a fastball that sits in the low 90s, touching 96 mph, with exceptional carry up in the zone and big extension, making it extremely effective at missing barrels.
His mid-80s slider is a quality bat-missing pitch that keeps hitters off balance, while his upper-70s curveball is a true above-average to plus offering with huge spin and depth, missing bats at a 50% clip in 2024. Both breaking balls have taken a step forward this season, giving him a strong 1-2 punch that plays well in the SEC. Anderson has begun to mix in a firm changeup, though his feel for the pitch is still developing.
During his first start of the 2025 season, he generated 17 whiffs on 33 swings (51.5%), with all four pitches: fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup, posting at least a 30% swing-and-miss rate. At times, his curveball stands out as his best weapon, giving him a well-rounded arsenal that keeps hitters guessing.
If he can maintain his effectiveness deeper into games while proving he can command all four of his offerings, he could be a rising name to watch throughout the season. With continued strikeout production and refined command, Anderson has the potential to push into Day 1 draft discussions.
2. Los Angeles Angels: LHP Liam Doyle
Photo: Kate Luffman/Tennesse Athletics
School: Tennessee
Pick Value: $10,252,700
Doyle possesses the best fastball of anyone in the draft and should be one of the fastest movers of anyone in this class. With the Angels clearly coveting proximity with their top picks, Doyle fits the blueprint in what they look for while possessing enough upside to justify the number two overall selection. We felt the organizational fit for the player lined up too well to pass on, though some down the board money-savers (Ike Irish, for example) were thrown around as a potential option here as well as Jamie Arnold.
Liam Doyle Draft Report
B/T: R-L
Height: 6-2
Weight: 220
Draft Age: 21.1
Hometown: Derry, New Hampshire
Summary: The biggest early-season riser in the 2025 MLB Draft class, Doyle has been dominant since transferring to Tennessee, following a breakout season at Coastal Carolina and a strikeout-heavy campaign at Ole Miss, where he fanned 84 batters in 55 innings.
Doyle’s lightning-quick left arm and strong, well-leveraged lower half allow him to generate elite fastball characteristics. His heater is among the best in the country, sitting in the mid-90s and touching just under 100 mph, with over 20 inches of induced vertical break and natural arm-side run. A flat approach angle and elite backspin make it a devastating swing-and-miss pitch at the top of the zone, producing an absurd 70% whiff rate through his first two starts.
Beyond the fastball, Doyle spins two distinct breaking balls: a low-80s baby sweeper and a firmer mid-80s cutter. The sweeper has become his go-to secondary pitch, generating a staggering 75% whiff rate, while the cutter remains a work in progress, with command improvements a key focus.
However, the biggest revelation in his arsenal this season has been his upper-70s splitter, which has flashed plus and now grades out as one of his best pitches. With Stuff+ scores in the 120s, its added depth and deception have given him a true third weapon, keeping hitters off balance and further enhancing his dominance.
To fully maximize his upside, Doyle will need to continue refining his secondaries and improve his sequencing. There are some reliever concerns due to his effortful delivery, but his early-season dominance suggests he is firmly on the trajectory of a first-round arm. While tougher SEC competition will serve as the true test, his stock is soaring, and he is now in serious top-20 consideration heading into the July draft. If he maintains this pace, Doyle has a strong chance to be the second collegiate left-hander off the board in the 2025 MLB Draft, trailing only Arnold.
3. Seattle Mariners: RHPSeth Hernandez
Photo via @seth_hernandez_22 on IG
School: Corona HS
Pick Value: $9,504,400
With the Mariners’ pitching development having fully materialized in recent years, we think the Mariners swing big and aim for the player with the highest upside in the class. Hernandez possesses premier stuff as a high school arm, already throwing one of the best changeups in the class with good feel for the offering. His high octane fastball pairs with a pair of breakers that each get good bite, and both the frame and athleticism on the mound is rather remarkable for someone his age. There isn’t a long track record on right-handed prep pitchers being taken at this stage of the draft, however Hernandez is good enough to be an exception. It’s a high risk, high reward play in the Pacific Northwest, but with their willingness to pay Ryan Sloan first round money last July, we think they’ll pull the trigger on Hernandez and shoot for the moon.
Seth Hernandez Draft Report
B/T: R-R
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
Draft Age: 19.00
Hometown: Chino, California
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Summary: At this stage of the 2025 draft cycle, no arm in the class stands out more than Hernandez. He’s both physically and mentally ahead of his peers on the mound, and while his future likely lies on the bump, his raw tools as a position player gives him a legitimate two-way for consideration early in the process.
At 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, Hernandez has plenty of projection remaining, and his operation is as effortless as they come. He’s a fluid, athletic mover with elite arm speed and a loose, explosive delivery from a high three-quarter slot. The fastball currently sits 95–97 mph and has touched triple digits in shorter outings. As he continues to add strength, he projects to sit comfortably in the upper-90s with strong extension and the ability to challenge hitters at the top of the zone.
The changeup is among the best in the country, a low-80s parachute with heavy sink and excellent separation off the fastball, flashing plus consistently. He also mixes in a big, top-to-bottom curveball in the upper-70s and a cutter/slider hybrid in the mid-to-upper 80s, both spinning north of 2,700 RPMs. His command of secondaries still needs some refinement, but he fills the zone and misses bats with all four offerings.
Offensively, Hernandez brings a loud toolset that’s often overlooked due to his upside on the mound. He shows impressive hand speed and bat control, with flashes of above-average raw power, especially to the pull side. Scouts have expressed concern over his exaggerated load and inconsistent performance against quality breaking balls, which clouds his long-term offensive profile. However, he's shown consistent barrel control, leveraged swings, and has been one of the top performers at the plate early in the spring on the West Coast for Corona HS.
Defensively, Hernandez is a 6.8 runner with a cannon for an arm, giving him real defensive value in the outfield. If the pitching doesn’t fully develop, he offers a legitimate fallback as a corner outfielder with pop and defensive upside.
Overall, Hernandez profiles with a Michael Lorenzen-type floor, but he’s already more polished than Lorenzen coming out of college, giving him a significantly higher ceiling. He’s a premier name in the 2025 class with two-way intrigue, but the upside on the mound is what separates him from the pack. If he gets to campus, he'd be eligible as a sophomore at Vanderbilt in 2027.
4. Colorado Rockies: 3B Ethan Holliday
Photo via @ethanhollidayy on IG
School: Stillwater HS
Pick Value: $8,770,900
Perhaps the worst kept secret of this class, the Rockies have been open in their pursuit of Holliday and would seemingly jump at the opportunity to select him should he fall past Washington with the first pick. With our mock having them opt for Anderson, Holliday slips to the four spot and receives the pay day he’s been looking for in Colorado. There’s a ton of power in the profile and nice left handed swing that gets loft, but some scouts worry about the feel to hit and an eventual move to third base. Despite this, it’s still a sky high ceiling for the youngest Holliday brother if everything comes together. If he were to slip beyond this point, everyone would be floored.
Ethan Holliday Draft Report
B/T: L-R
Height: 6-4
Weight: 210
Draft Age: 18.04
Hometown: Stillwater, Oklahoma
Commitment: Oklahoma State University (OSU)
Summary: The younger brother of 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday and the second son of former Cardinals star Matt Holliday, Ethan is already showing greater physicality and louder offensive tools than Jackson did at the same stage. Ethan appears to have inherited more of his father’s physical traits, and scouts believe his long-term profile may resemble Matt’s more than Jackson’s, with more power and strength over twitch and athleticism.
Offensively, Holliday’s toolset is among the loudest in the class. His swing is buttery smooth and effortless, with easy bat speed and an advanced feel for impact. He consistently posts triple-digit exit velocities in-game, including a 111-mph rocket during the 18U Team USA trials, and has the raw strength to project 30+ home runs annually at maturity. There are still areas for development, though. Holliday can be overly passive in his approach, and his swing can get long, leading to some swing-and-miss. That said, the power upside is enormous.
Scouts expect him to continue filling out physically, which should only further enhance his impact potential at the plate. The biggest developmental priority will be tightening up the approach and shortening the swing (a similar issue Matt had in the Rockies system after being drafted), but the offensive ceiling is significant.
Defensively, most evaluators project Holliday to eventually move off shortstop due to his size, with third base seen as the most natural fit. He moves fluidly on the dirt with solid range and a strong arm, traits that would play well at the hot corner. Long-term, some even envision a path similar to his father’s, beginning his pro career as a third baseman before potentially shifting to left field as he adds more weight and mass.
While he may not be the consensus 1.1 pick right now, Holliday is firmly in the mix as the top high school player in the class and a strong candidate to go in the top five. If he heads to college, he’s committed to Oklahoma State, where his uncle, Josh Holliday, is the head coach, and his grandfather coached before him.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: LHPJamie Arnold
Photo via FSU Baseball
School: Florida State University
Pick Value: $8,134,800
This feels like an optimal scenario for St. Louis, being able to scoop up a premium college arm with the fifth pick. Arnold possesses incredibly unique traits to pair with wipeout stuff from the left side. The stuff ticked back a bit this season, but he’s got a two year track record of dominating in the ACC against premium competition. We kicked around the possibility of a prep shortstop here and strongly considered Eli Willits for this pick, however with an aversion to the prep ranks in recent years and high-floor, high-ceiling college arm available, we have them taking the easy way out with Jaime Arnold.
Jamie Arnold Draft Report
B/T: L-L
Height: 6-1
Weight: 192
Draft Age: 21.3
Hometown: Tampa, Florida
Summary: After a challenging freshman season in Tallahassee, Arnold redefined himself in 2024, emerging as one of college baseball’s most dominant arms. He struck out 159 batters over 105.2 innings while posting a 2.98 ERA, proving his ability to handle a starter’s workload and thrive in high-pressure situations. His combination of arsenal, command, and starter traits positions him as a legitimate contender to be the first pitcher selected this July, with real 1:1 potential.
On the bump, Arnold pitches with confidence and presence, featuring an athletic, low-launch delivery with a 4’4” release height and crossfire action, enhancing deception and extension down the mound. His mechanics incorporate significant scap retraction, yet he remains on time with his arm, creating a tough angle to the plate with a slingy release. He’s a competitor in every sense, attacking hitters with a fearless approach and a sharp understanding of how to use his stuff. His fastball underwent one of the most significant jumps in the country, now sitting 93-95 MPH, touching 97, with elite arm-side run averaging 17 inches, sometimes exceeding 20 inches. He also mixes in a four-seam fastball that plays effectively off the sinker, providing a different look with more ride and less run. His heater’s strong carry and flat approach angle allow it to play up in the zone, making it a true bat-missing weapon. Arnold’s mid-80s sweeper is his bread and butter, a plus pitch with 14 inches of sweep and minimal drop. It’s a true swing-and-miss offering that he lands for strikes, with enough depth to backfoot right-handers and keep lefties off balance.
His changeup, once a liability, has become a legitimate weapon after an extensive offseason overhaul at Driveline. Now featuring 9 inches of drop and 10 inches of run, it mimics the action of a two-plane breaking ball from a righty, giving him a devastating third pitch. While command of the changeup is still developing, its separation from his sinker has unlocked a new dimension in his arsenal.
Arnold has evolved into more than just a high-upside arm, he’s a pitcher who embraces the grind, adapts, and finds ways to improve. With his combination of power stuff, refined mechanics, and competitive mindset, he not only has frontline starter potential but also the presence and work ethic of a future big-league ace. His ability to generate swings and misses at an elite rate, combined with his improved velocity and deceptive delivery, makes him one of the most exciting arms in the 2025 draft class.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Been a baseball fan and player my whole life, played dynasty for 10 years. Co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023 and joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Watch Path to the Show on Bally Sports Live & Stadium! | Check out the On Deck Podcast! | Dynasty Team Writer/Podcaster | I love the Tennessee Volunteers, milk, pitchers, catchers, & you <3 P4:13
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
