Intro
The Nick Kurtz chase continues with 2025 Topps Update Series. NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin and NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Cade Horton provide nice secondary options along with a slew of Series 1 and Series 2 rookies getting second and third passes at Flagship rookie cards.
As usual, lets dig into the players with Rookie Cards in this edition of Topps Flagship.
Check out the 2025 Topps Update Series TLDR for all of your quick reference guide needs.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
*Recent transactions may not be 100% reflected in these write-ups as they occured over the past month
ARI
Tier None
Adrian Del Castillo (C, 26)
2025 Topps Update Series:
Del Castillo gets his rookie debut card in Update, along with an auto. Back in Series 1, I had him in Tier 3 based on a tantalizing power tool with enough of a hit tool to allow him to get to that power. A shoulder strain to start the year plus a minor back injury in June all combined to limit Del Castillo to just 28 minor league games before getting the call-up to Arizona in mid-July. The move was made less as catching depth and more as a strong-side DH platoon role. That’s not something we want to see for the Hobby. What we wanted to see even less was a K rate of 36%, a walk rate of 6%, less than 5 home runs, and a wRC+ of 87 in 44 MLB games in 2025. The bloom is off the rose, and the fact that he’s getting less run at catcher, limiting his playing time, has capped his Ceiling further. He’s getting dropped into Tier None, when he was a Tier 3 player heading into the season. There’s no juice left to squeeze until we see him getting full playing time AND improved results along with it.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
The Diamondbacks second round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Del Castillo seemed to turn all of the hoped for offensive projection into reality by more than doubling his 2023 home run totals with 30 total across Triple-A and the Majors. The hit tool also was showing at its best in Triple-A with a double digit walk rate and an impressive 17% K rate. However, in the small sample of 87 plate appearances, that was not something he was able to maintain with an 8% walk rate and a 32% K rate. Small sample size and all that, but it also is a bit concerning as the underlying hit tool data was all rough. Del Castillo isn’t going to steal you any bases which means from a Hobby perspective, we need him to hit AND get to his power. Factor in the situation where he’s shown to not have the defensive chops to stick at catcher long term, and suddenly you have to pin your hopes on a long term first baseman/designated hitter that can hit 25 - 30 home runs with middling to decent batting average similar to the just departed first baseman in Arizona, Christian Walker. That’s still a possibility, but it’s not one I would bet on. The power keeps him relevant, the defense holds him back from everyday reps and getting ranked higher. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tim Tawa (1B, 26)
After a 22 home run season at Double-A in 2023 and a 31 home run season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, it was going to be hard for Arizona to not give Tawa a look at the MLB level at some point in 2025 when the need for an infield bat arose. That happened almost as soon as the season started with a Ketel Marte hamstring strain the first week of April. Tawa played frequently at second base and then filled in elsewhere after Marte came back, especially in the outfield with Corbin Carroll on the IL mid-season, but also spent some time at the infield corners. That shows Tawa’s versatility and confirms his ability to fill that role on an MLB roster, at least defensively, even with an underwhelming arm. Offensively…it was not a great performance in 74 MLB appearances. A .201/.274/.347 triple slash with 7 home runs and 8 stolen bases. The hit tool was obviously not good with a 28% K rate, a 33% whiff rate, and a 49% ground ball rate. There’s a scenario where Tawa goes on hot streaks when facing a bunch of lefties and using his good bat speed to put the ball over the fence - I’d be selling into those heaters, and think he could easily get Tier 3 prices. More realistically, he’s what he’s already been slotted into by Arizona - a weak side platoon, utility type, which isn’t enough to be considered outside of Tier None. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Juan Morillo (P, 26)
After the Dodgers cut bait on Morillo following a run of the mill Double-A results in 2024, Arizona signed Morillo to a minor league deal. If the Dodgers couldn’t turn a reliever throwing 99 with two different fastballs paired with a slider and a change-up into a usable MLB arm after 9 years in the minors (with a TJ thrown in there), I don’t think many other orgs would be able to either. Credit to the Diamondbacks for getting 34 major league average innings out of Morillo in 2025, but looking beneath the covers shows that it’s going to be a challenge to get much beyond that. His stuff just isn’t good enough, even with that level of elite velocity. He gives up too much contact and his successful outings are driven by getting ground balls half the time or more. The walk rate at 13% is a bit too much as well, even in relief. As currently constructed, Morillo is a fringey, middle of the bullpen guy that you’d expect more than what his results give you. Not much more to say other than spend your money elsewhere. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
ATH
Tier 1
Nick Kurtz (1B, 22)
If you are buying Topps Update, you are likely hoping to get an auto or some color for Nick Kurtz- I’m comfortable calling him far and away the product chase, as he put up historic numbers as a rookie and garnered national attention through the year (do you know how good you have to be to be a household name as a rookie for the Athletics?!). Kurtz was the 4th overall pick out of Wake Forest all the way back in the- checks notes- 2024 MLB Draft. It’s not like the guy came out of nowhere, but the immediate results were way better than you could expect for any prospect in any situation. The short- Kurtz came up in late April and over 117 Games he posted a 5.4 bWAR, 173 OPS+, 36 homers, and added on another 26 doubles for good measure. An OPS of 1.002 is nearly Judge-ian, and to do so as a rookie is just incomprehensible. The sole caveat I must note is that he struck out in 30% of plate appearances, which certainly isn’t great. But with a 51.3% hard hit rate to go along with 62% of balls classified as line drives or fly balls, it matters a lot less, because when he hits the ball, the quality of contact is ridiculously good. If anything, the high k-rate shows that there is even more room to grow for Kurtz- if he can cut it down to even a still high 25%, that would be 30ish more balls in play over a 600 PA sample size. Kurtz essentially played at an MVP pace upon being called up, and if Aaron Judge didn’t exist and Cal Raleigh didn’t post a historic season for a Catcher, he’d definitely be in the conversation. He should win Rookie of the Year unanimously, despite impressive seasons from teammate Jacob Wilson and Red Sox super prospect Roman Anthony. He’s probably anyone’s pick if they were to start a franchise from the ground up at the first base position, even after Vlad Jr lit the world on fire in the 2025 playoffs. If that all isn’t enough, I would be remiss to not mention Kurtz’s performance in Houston on July 25th of this year, where he went 6-6 with 4 Homers, a double off the top of the wall, and a measly single. He was the second player to ever go 6-6 with four homers, matching Shawn Green in 2002, the first rookie to pop 4 long balls in a game, and just the first rookie to ever do it. It is impossible to do the season that Kurtz just had justice, and I could probably write 2,000 words on the guy quite easily. No, I don’t care that he plays in a launching pad right now for a home park- he just hits the ball so hard I don’t think it matters where he calls home. Generally, first basemen hold less value in the hobby, but again, Kurtz kind of transcends our common line of thinking for the hobby. His Bowman market is ridiculous, and should only continue to climb. If you get an auto of this guy, be sure not to drop it on the way to sleeve and topload it- sure to be a nice return on your purchase price or a cornerstone of a collection. An unbelievable player who I am excited to follow and watch for years to come. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier 2
Jacob Wilson (SS, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series: Unsurprisingly, Jacob Wilson turned in a very Luis Arraez type of statline. A paltry 7.5% K rate coupled with a 5% walk rate with an elite contact rate led to a batting average above .300. He just puts the bat to the ball all the time. Unlike Arraez, there’s a bit more pop in the bat, hitting 13 home runs in 125 games. He fought through a hand injury in July that eventually led to an IL stint and did not return until the end of August. So the question becomes, can he hit 20 home runs and maintain Tier 2 relevance with ease? As long as he has home games in Sacramento and plays a full complement of games, the answer is likely yes. His True Rookie Card was all the way back in Series 1, but you’ll get his Rookie Debut as well as find him all over the checklist with inserts, relics, and autos. A nice complement in the product to his teammate Nick Kurtz, the primary Tier 1 chase in the set.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
The 6th overall pick by the A’s in the 2023 MLB Draft, Wilson is the son of former major leaguer Jack Wilson. Wilson was billed as one of the best pure hitters in that draft class, and he proved it at every stop in the minors by never hitting under .318 at any of those stops, leading to a major league call-up almost exactly one year after he was drafted. A hamstring injury in his debut game led to an IL stint, so we only got 28 games total of MLB action from Wilson in 2024. While he held his own, it wasn’t any eye-popping type of results. I’m not overly concerned with those results - his near elite hit tool and natural instincts to put the bat to the ball while limiting whiffs and strikeouts is going to put him amongst the elite contact hitters in the league among Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, and Nico Hoerner. The main question for Wilson is his power, which likely remains average to above average at best. He did put up seven home runs in 79 minor league games in 2024, giving some hope that double digit home runs were in the profile, but didn’t hit any in his small MLB sample. Wilson is capable at shortstop but wouldn’t prevent a highly skilled defender from pushing him to third or second base. Wilson isn’t going to steal any more than a handful of bases even if he can get around the bases decently. That basically pushes his comp more towards Arraez land than Kwan or Hoerner. From a Hobby perspective, the draft pedigree, legacy player, and near-elite tool boxes are all checked. However, the lack of power and a franchise in absolute flux put some obstacles in place for a huge Hobby Ceiling. There is Tier 3 downside if Wilson turns into a shortstop version of Luis Arraez, but there’s also temporary Tier 1 upside if Wilson turns into a shortstop version of Luis Arraez. When Arraez was on a heater and flirting with hitting .400 in 2023, his cards skyrocketed in value, and that’s entirely within the range of outcomes for Wilson. The x-factor is the future home ballpark(s) of Wilson and the Athletics. No one knows how Sacramento will play - minor league park factors according to Baseball America imply that Sacramento is more favorable to pitching than hitting, but I sort of take that with a large grain of salt. Sacramento has been the home of the Giants Triple-A team, and what we’ve seen with the Giants is that they tend to produce viable pitchers, but not so much viable hitters. Park factors are based on results, so when the home team is throwing out good pitchers and bad hitters, park factors can be misleading. We’ll see how Sacramento plays for major league caliber players and if that helps or hurts Wilson's quest for the first player in what is approaching 100 years to hit .400 over the course of an MLB season. Because that is the true driver of Wilson’s Hobby value. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier 3
Denzel Clarke (OF, 25)
Is elite centerfield defense and plus speed enough to overcome a woeful hit tool? Usually the answer is “yes, but”. And that “but” is that the above profile often has a pretty short leash. Clarke may be the exception because that defense is so elite and the Athletics are a second-division team with no financial support to put a winning team on the field. In just 47 games in Clarke’s debut season (an abductor injury ended his season early), he registered 13 outs above average (13). That ranks 12th overall for the entire season, and he did it in less than 30% of a full season of games. That defense included the best defensive play in centerfield I saw this season, and maybe in my entire life. He launched himself up the centerfield wall in Anaheim to catch a Nolan Schanuel home run ball, which was not a wall scraper, and pirouetted off the top of the wall like an Olympic gymnast. If you’re the one person that watches baseball who has not seen that play, do yourself a favor and watch it. In his small sample debut, the hit tool was really rough - less than a 5% walk rate, an almost 40% K rate as the most glaringly scary stats. His zone contact was around average, but his outside zone contact was fringe at best. Not surprisingly, it was off-speed and breakers that gave him the most trouble. Can he fix that? Possibly - he’s just 25 years old, and he was in more acceptable ranges for hit tool stats in the minors in the past. Not great, but not this bad. He only spent 32 games at Triple-A, all in 2025, so he’s also not faced this level of quality pitching that much in his career. At best, we’re hoping for a .250 type of hitter with 15 - 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases with that elite centerfield defense. At worst, Clarke ends up as a 4th/5th outfielder that can’t get on base enough to make an offensive impact. The elite defense and plus speed make him a no doubt Tier 3 selection, with Tier 2 upside and Tier None downside in equally weighted future outcomes. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Max Muncy (SS, 23)
No, everyone’s favorite bespectacled Dodger did not discover the fountain of youth, nor get cloned like Tom Brady’s dog. This iteration of Max Muncy was drafted with the 25th pick in the 2021 draft out of High School, and while he never did quite enough to become a consensus top-100 type prospect, he performed well enough to be a guy worth keeping tabs on as he posted mid-high .700 range OPS numbers until breaking out a bit in 50 games in AAA in 2024, where he exploded a bit with a .866 OPS and 8 homers over the injury abbreviated campaign. He posted a .901 OPS across 31 games to start the 2025 campaign in AAA before getting the call to the bigs. It was a bit of a mixed bag for Muncy with the Athletics. He posted a .638 OPS in 63 games, but did pop 9 homers in 220 at bats, showing that there is 20+ home run juice in the bat as a middle infielder. Blocked by Jacob Wilson at short, Muncy projects to predominately see time at Second or Third save for giving Wilson a spell at short, but he did struggle defensively with a -7 OAA score (8th percentile, and notably in only 35-40ish percent of a season). He runs well enough, with 71st percentile sprint speed, but only swiped a single bag in the Majors. If Muncy wants to stick long term, he will need to clean up his glove work at the hot corner or at second and cut his k rate (30.9%) pretty dramatically. Like his shortstop counterpart Wilson, he swings at everything, but he notably lacks the other-worldly talent of Wilson to put those balls in play. The low walk rate (4.5%) is bad, and he wasn’t hitting the ball particularly hard. But, Muncy is still just 23 and comes with solid if unspectacular results across every minor league level as well as a first round pedigree. I don’t think he’s bad, but if he replicates the season he just had in 2026 he probably begins to move towards a depth role for the long term vs being seen as a long term building block (now with even more pressure to perform immediately following the addition of Leo de Vries who will almost certainly be banging on the door of the Majors at some point in 2026). He’s a fine player and probably the definition of a “hold” card (unless you can sell at a premium), and it’s worth waiting to see if he can turn himself into anything in 2026. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier None
Gunnar Hoglund (P, 25)
Hoglund is a former first round pick by the Jays in the 2021 Draft (19th overall) by way of Ole Miss. He was considered to be the centerpiece in the Matt Chapman trade in March of 2022, a move that has not really returned much for the A’s organization. Hoglund made his debut this year after battling some injuries as a 25 year old, and the small-ish sample size wasn’t the best. Due to injuries, Hoglund only made 3 appearances in the minors between being drafted in the Summer of 2021 until the early Summer of his 2023 season. The first go at the minors wasn’t kind to Hoglund, posting a 6.20 ERA over 61 innings with just a 6.8 K/9 (although he did boast an impressive 1.8 BB/9). Fully healthy going into 2024 at AA, Hoglund was excellent there- he put up a 3.01 ERA over 104.2 innings. Again, the K rate was a bit light for a first round arm, sitting at 8.3 K/9, but he did continue to limit walks, ceding just 2.3 BB/9. Hoglund was forced into Big League duty in 2025, and made 6 starts with limited success. Over 32.1 innings, he gave up a remarkable 10 home runs, and posted a 6.40 ERA. Hoglund continued to struggle to strike guys out, with a 6.4 K/9. The walk rate, still good but no longer outstanding, rose to 3.1 BB/9. The 2.8 HR/9 statistic is jarring and will obviously limit success for Hoglund. Even if he puts a dent in it, it’ll probably still be way too high. His Savant page is a flood of blue, save for his extension being 83rd percentile, and I hate to say it but I think Hoglund is just not a serious Major League pitcher at this point in time. The sole way he could have some value with those numbers would be piling up K’s with encouraging peripherals, but that doesn’t really seem to be on the horizon. Feel comfortable avoiding him and he’s a Tier None guy for me. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Michel Otanez (P, 28)
I was very intrigued with Otañez coming into the 2025 season for two reasons - a 36% K rate coming out of the pen for the A’s in 2024, and all of the trade rumors around Mason Miller. In fantasy leagues with holds, I was picking him up wherever I could, banking on a high leverage role and potentially getting a closer in the second half. Let’s just say things did NOT go to plan. Otañez dealt with a few injuries, first a shoulder impingement that kept him off the opening day roster and then an unspecified injury while in Triple-A that kept him out for roughly two months in the height of summer. He did make it back by mid-August, but never got to pitch again with the Athletics in 2025. In total, he had just 6 appearances with the big league club in 2025, all in the month of May. It’s too small a sample size to read much into, and his Triple-A stats should be taken with a grain of salt because PCL. Otañez throws a four seam fastball and sinker, both in the 96-98 range and pairs that with an inconsistent 86 mph slider. The fastball can be elite, which was one of the reasons I was grabbing shares heading into 2025. The walk rate and command of all of his pitches is problematic to say the least. That’s likely why the A’s were willing to cut him loose this month, and he’s now been picked up by the Rangers. There’s a potential future closer in the profile, but there’s also a high likelihood he’s unable to command his pitches to be relied upon at the MLB level. That makes it an easy decision to drop him into the Tier None reliever bucket. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Carlos Duran (P, 24)
Acquired from the Dodgers in return for Esteury Ruiz at the beginning of the season when the A’s DFA’d Ruiz (who would have guessed that two years ago), Durán is a big boy with a plus slider and two flavors of a mid-90’s fastball that struggles to find the zone. The whiff rate on the slider in Triple-A this season was a fantastic 42%. It should be mentioned that Durán has a show-me change-up as well with an even more elite whiff rate at 53%, but he threw it less than 7% of the time, so it’s hard to put much weight in the eye popping numbers. Durán gets a rookie card in this product because he got one third of an inning back in May at the big league level, but otherwise he spent the entire season at Triple-A. That third of an inning did NOT go well, as he got the first batter (Nolan Schanuel) to pop out and then proceeded to walk two batters, give up a single, and then walk in a run against swing-happy Jo Adell. Hogan Harris came in and threw further gas on the fire, allowing two more runs to score before getting out of the inning. That means Durán’s debut season statline at the MLB level includes an 81 ERA. Not a 0.81 ERA - an 81.00 ERA, just to be clear. At Triple-A, it wasn’t that bad, but it wasn’t great either, with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP (yikes!). Maybe we see Durán one day in a high leverage role, but there’s a LOT of work to do before that happens. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Justin Sterner (RHP, 29)
Sterner, the 29 year old UDFA out of BYU, actually debuted in May of 2024 for the Rays but only saw two appearances, good for 4 innings where he allowed a single earned run and struck out 4. Sterner basically did the opposite of what we have come to expect from the Rays organization in 2025- the Athletics grabbed him off waivers from the Rays and he had a stellar year out of the Athletics pen. Sterner appeared in 59 games (65 IP), with a 3.18 ERA and 70 K’s. The FIP is a bit worse, at 4.27, but all in all it seems Sterner could be a nice find who contributes to the A’s pen for a bit. He struck guys out at just over a 1 per inning clip (9.7 K/9), didn’t walk a ton of guys (2.9 BB/9), but was bit a little by the home run bug (10 in 65 IP), but I think I do owe it to add the disclaimer that he pitched his home games in a launching pad resembling the Moon. The Savant page looks nice, too, with the only real issue being a 4th percentile ground ball rate (29.9%). To go back to the earlier point, the conditions at home are pretty tough for any Athletics pitcher, but Sterner could help himself out quite a bit if he could find a way to limit balls hit in the air in 2026. On another note, Sterner probably has some appeal to Mormon collectors, as he did the two year church mission before getting to Provo as a Freshman in 2018. Per my limited poking around, he’s the first guy to make the Majors who did the Mormon service mission before his playing career since Jeremy Guthrie. Not sure what the Mormon card collecting community looks like, but he should be popular there. Not super notable otherwise, given his age and the fact nobody wants to touch Athletics pitchers. Fun story, nice to see him succeed, but falls into Tier None. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
CJ Alexander (3B, 29)
2025 Topps Update Series:
A Royals rookie card in 2025 Topps Series 1, Alexander gets an Athletics rookie card in Update Series, which was two organizations ago. To be fair, it’s the only team he played for in the majors in 2025, back in late May and early June. Alexander was DFA’d as part of roster shuffling and claimed by the Yankees, where he spent 13 games playing for their Triple-A affiliate before hitting the waiver wire again. The Dodgers put in a claim and Alexander spent the rest of the season in Oklahoma City. And, well, he didn’t even put up league average results in Oklahoma City as a 28 year old. With the season over, he's now on the minor league free agent wire and while he may get a Spring Training invite somewhere, he probably will struggle to stick in an MLB org in 2026. Just as I intimated in my Series 1 write-up, this is looking more and more like a Quad-A corner bat with above average pop that finds his way to playing in one of the Asian leagues in a year or two.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
After getting a 4 game cup of coffee debut with the Royals in the middle of summer, he was eventually designated for assignment to clear a 40 man roster spot and ended up being claimed by the A’s. As an older player, he finally started to show that he was too good for Triple-A competition, putting up strong top line stats with some above average data to back it up. I’m just not convinced it will work at the MLB level as an everyday player and that he fits as more of a strong side platoon corner infielder/corner outfielder bat. I could easily be wrong here, and he’s just a late bloomer that will put up a .260 average with 20 home runs. I don’t think I’d make that bet, and the Royals didn’t either. I’m nowhere near as smart as any baseball org, so I’ll go with what a team that could have used a bat like Alexander looked like in Triple-A at the major league level is telling me - he’s a fringe MLB player that they decided they could take the risk of moving on from. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Elvis Alvarado (P, 26)
An International signing of the Washington Nationals as an outfielder all the way back in 2015, Alvarado finally made his debut with his sixth organization in the MLB. A near elite fastball will generate plenty of interest, but fringe-y command lessens any team’s patience. The fastball sits 99 and often shows arm side run. His main secondary is an inconsistent 89 mph slider that can get a decent amount of swing and miss if he hits his spots with it, which isn’t a regular occurrence. There’s also a sinker that he’ll mix in here and there, and a bad change-up that he’ll throw to left-handers. It’s tough for a one pitch pitcher to get a full time closer gig, even if that is a fastball. But it can be done, especially if the walk rate can get under control. Or Alvarado turns the slider into a consistent weapon, and suddenly he’s a regular for high leverage opportunities. If he gets a second useful pitch AND limits the walks, then he has Tier 3 full-time closer upside, but that isn’t something we should be banking on for the Hobby. Until then, he’s dropped into the Tier None bucket with most if not all relievers. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Logan Davidson (3B, 27)
Davidson, now in the Angels organization,appeared in 19 games (10 for LAA, 9 for the Athletics, for whom he debuted), and struggled. The 27 year old rookie posted just a .508 OPS (although he did pop his first career home run) in 42 at bats. Going 7-42 as a 27 year old rookie probably isn’t the start Davidson was hoping for, and the former late first rounder out of Clemson will certainly hope to get another crack at the MLB level in 2026. He was listed as a first baseman for the Angels, so the pressure is certainly higher if he wants to stick at first. His Savant page is not great, save for boasting a strong chase rate, and it isn’t clear that there is really a strong tool anywhere in his approach at the dish. He’s probably a AAAA type where you hope for, but certainly do not expect, a mild breakout to become a Major League level piece. Nothing much to see here, the switch hitter is comfortably in Tier None for me. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Willie MacIver (C, 29)
A backup catcher profile that has taken advantage of friendly minor league parks, first in the Rockies system, and then Athletics system, to make his stats look better than his true talent. A former third baseman, MacIver has the arm that allows him to get reps behind the dish. And while there’s been some reps taken at first base and DH, the offense simply is good enough to play anywhere except for catcher at the MLB level. He’s got average pop and speed, knows the zone well enough so he won’t strike out excessively, and makes enough contact to occupy a third catcher type of role for the next few years. As part of the typical off-season roster crunch, the A’s waived MacIver this month and he was picked up by the Rangers. That’s probably going to be the pattern as he bounces on and off 40-man rosters throughout second division teams. At 29 years old, the clock’s ticking even in that scenario. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
ATL
Tier 1
Drake Baldwin (C, 24)
In what was generally a terrible year to be a Braves fan, Drake Baldwin emerging as a stud catcher was surely the brightest spot for the organization. Debuting on Opening Day, a day before his 24th Birthday, the Braves newest backstop put together a wonderful rookie campaign, with a 126 OPS+ (.810 OPS), 19 long balls, and cumulating a 3.3 bWAR in a 124 game sample. The 2022 3rd rounder finds himself firmly in the Rookie of the Year conversation in the National League, as he stands neck in neck with Cade Horton as of this writing. Behind the dish, Baldwin was good enough, with excelling blocking metrics (92nd percentile), and average-ish returns everywhere else. His full season, per Savant, was good for -1 Fielding Run Value, locking him in at the 44th percentile there. For a rookie catcher, that’s certainly good enough as a baseline, especially when the bat is a serious difference maker from the get-go. Baldwin’s Savant page has a ton of red, reflecting his ability to hit the ball hard, limit strikeouts and whiffs, and he showcases elite bat speed (91st percentile). An average walk rate of 8.5% (51st percentile) is probably the sole thing you could pick on Baldwin for, and to be clear, we’re nitpicking his “flaw” at the dish, where he is still firmly average. Baldwin showed some mammoth power to the pull side, and he is sure to be littering the Chop House in right field in Atlanta for years to come (much to the chagrin of my Mets). Baldwin may see a tiny ding to his value given the lack of excitement around collecting catchers, but a guy in Seattle may have changed that this season. Baldwin is an exciting player, a core piece for the Braves moving forward, and one of the better players in the product. Not quite at Nick Kurtz level, but he’s certainly in the conversation for best hitters after Kurtz in the product.
*Note- Baldwin wound up edging out Horton to take home NL ROTY honors - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier 2
Spencer Schwellenbach (P, 25)
2025 Topps Update Series: The rising star of the Braves pitching staff, Schwelly looked even better in 2025 than he did in his impressive 2024 debut. A Series 1 rookie, I had him in Tier 2 back then and felt like it was perhaps a bit of a bolder call, but as fantasy draft season went on, it became apparent I was in line with the market, at least as far as valuing him from a fantasy perspective. And the Hobby was following suit. Sadly, a small elbow fracture led to Schwelly being shut down for the season early in July. Those 2024 statcast numbers I referenced in February looked just as good in 2025, with a chase rate in the 95th percentile and fastball run value going from a 56th percentile value to a 93rd percentile run value. From a Stuff+ perspective everything but the cutter maintained or looked better. Simply put, the up arrow in 2024 was pointing even further up in 2025. The injury, even if it’s in the pitching injury danger zone of the elbow, was a bone injury rather than a soft tissue injury. I’m much more positive in that scenario, and expect him to be all systems go to begin 2026 until we hear otherwise. There’s still not the top end, ace-like strikeout rate in the bag yet, and that caps his value and keeps him firmly in Tier 2 territory, like I had him in Series 1.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
I vividly remember trying to find pitching tape of Schwellenbach in college and it was near impossible when I was writing up his 1st Bowman card in 2021 Bowman Draft. He had arm surgery in high school, so that likely kept him from pitching until his final year at Nebraska even though he did play at shortstop through his time there, and what do you know, his elbow popped and he TJ going into the draft. He was essentially a mystery box in that product, and someone I ranked in Tier None because I just had no clue and zero expectations on what his future held. Fast forward to his debut in 2024, and that ranking looks a bit foolish! Schwellenbach was probably the second best starting pitcher to debut in 2024 behind Paul Skenes. It’s not really deep analysis when you do this, but if you look at his statcast page, almost every single metric is some shade of red (good). He was particularly excellent with his chase rate (96th percentile), limiting walks (95th percentile), and limiting barrels (90th percentile). Schwellenbach fills up the zone with a wide variety of pitches, almost all of which he throws 10% or more of the time, which is a good bar to know whether a pitch is part of the arsenal or simply a show-me pitch. That arsenal is composed of a 4-seam fastball in the mid-90’s, slider, cutter, curve, splitter, and sinker, with the sinker being the only one under 10% usage. There was not a negative run value pitch in that list, which is so impressive for a rookie pitcher throwing that amount of pitches, and doing it over a decent sample size of 123 innings. Schwellenbach is so good at pounding the zone, so that’s good in that it keeps free passes suppressed. But it’s also dangerous because if there is any tick down in velocity or pitch effectiveness, or even enough tape is out there for MLB hitters to approach Schwellenbach’s arsenal, the fill-up the zone approach can be exploited by those hitters. Another minor note of concern is that he went from 65 innings in his first season back from TJ in 2023 to 168 combined innings between the minors and majors in 2024. That’s a significant jump, and nervous nellies may think Schwelly is at a higher risk of arm injury again. I am looking at the glass half full with Schwellenbach - his statcast data is easily justifying a Tier 2 ranking, and that’s where I will have him. I can understand that just taking a look at an 8 - 7 win loss record with a 3.35 ERA and a sub 10 K/9 are all arguments to make in saying he’s just a back-end pitchability starter who’s already shown what he is. With the Braves pitching dev foundation, I find it difficult to believe that this is the peak, and more believe that this is the floor. I expect big things from Schwellenbach moving forward, and on a collectable team like the Braves, I’m certainly willing to buy Schwelly’s cards, especially if the price is right. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Nathan Wiles (P, 27)
An org depth pitcher that can provide a swingman type of role, Wiles was acquired for cash from the Rays prior to the 2025 season. The results weren’t great in his final season in the Rays org, beginning the year in the rotation but moving into the pen in the summer. In the Braves org in 2025, he went back to primarily being a starter but by the end of the year was again bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the pen. He did get a single inning of work out of the Braves MLB bullpen in late April, but essentially spent the whole year in Triple-A again. That one inning gets him a 2025 rookie card, so congrats on that. But there is nothing in the arsenal or the results that lead me to have any Hobby interest here. Maybe he turns into a Bryce Elder type and you get some brief opportunities to sell, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. The Braves sure didn't, as they cut bait after the season ended as part of off-season roster maintenance. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Parker Dunshee (P, 30)
A 2017 7th round pick of the A’s, Dunshee is now in his fourth org in the last three years. The A’s released him in April of 2023 and he’s gone through the Giants org, the Braves org, and now the Nationals org. He had one outing of low leverage relief out of the Atlanta bullpen in August of 2024 after the Brewers hung a seven spot on Charlie Morton in three innings of work. Dunshee did not fare much better, giving up five himself in just over two innings of work. And that lone outing late in 2024 put him on Topps radar for a 2025 rookie card, in a Braves uniform no less, because they have a checklist that’s not going to fill up itself. He spent all of 2025 with the Nationals Triple-A Rochester bullpen, but in mid-August ended up on the 60-day IL. No news that I’ve found on the specifics of the injury, but a 30 year old reliever that’s bounced around four minor league rosters in the recent past, has an unknown injury, and is currently a minor league free gent on top of it is not a place to spend our Hobby dollars. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
BAL
Tier 3
Coby Mayo (1B, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series: It’s safe to say that Mayo has yet to live up to the lofty expectations many of us had for him, but honestly I think we can say that about almost anyone that was part of the Orioles MLB roster. And Mayo didn’t even get a shot to be on that roster full time until essentially June. All told, it was just 85 games and a touch under 300 plate appearances for Mayo in Baltimore in 2025 which resulted in a .217/.299/.388 triple slash with 11 home runs and three stolen bases for a 95 wRC+. Back in February for 2025 Topps Series 1, I ranked Mayo in Tier 2. I felt like a .245 - .265 hitter with 30+ home runs was within reach, and with his prospect pedigree and a collectable team with an exciting young core, that could attract the bottom end of Tier 2 prices. I’d love to stick to my guns here, but the quality of contact is challenging me to hold the line. Not being able to hit four seam fastballs is a big red flag. Not hitting sliders or sweepers…that’s less scary because it’s a problem for a lot of MLB hitters. The long swing, the 31% whiff rate, the 29% K rate, the struggle to hit anything in the bottom half of the zone - it’s probably time to sell and drop his ranking. The dynasty team invoked the name of Jordan Walker in their 2026 Orioles team outlook, and while I think the profiles differ, the end result could easily be the same. Mayo and Walker are both tantalizingly talented hitters with flaws in their game that the player and the teams that they play for have yet to figure out how to remedy. I’m dropping Mayo into Tier 3 and selling on any positive news or hot streaks.
2025 Topps Series 1:
If Mayo can get his strikeout rate in the 25% range or under at the MLB level, like we’ve seen at multiple stops along his minor league playing time, we are looking at a perennial All-Star, top 50 type of power bat along the lines of Pete Alonso/Rafael Devers/Austin Riley. If the hit tool doesn’t take that next step, if it remains a major deficiency like we saw in his brief MLB debut, then he’s more along the lines of a Rhys Hoskins type of outcome. Still a good player, with Tier 3 type of interest, but not the Tier 2 bordering on Tier 1 type of upside that we all were dreaming of prior to his MLB debut last season. The power is easily double plus with top end exit velocity numbers, and he has shown the ability to adjust to minor league pitching as they attacked his weaknesses. I think, going off of his minor league contact rates he’ll figure out the hit tool just enough to let his power play, and not be a negative in that department, but more league average. So I’m sort of a believer, and looking at the glass half full, in that he will end up hitting .245 - .265 with 30+ home runs once he gets fully adjusted to major league pitching. Defensively, he’s probably better suited to first base as his deficiency with lateral agility and throwing accuracy keep him from being at third base long term. That will also put some pressure on his playing time, but it’s a minimal concern. The lackluster debut may present a decent buying opportunity, and I would definitely look to pick up his cards at the right price. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Brandon Young (P, 27)
A tall right hander with plus extension that looks to get ground balls, Young had a rough rookie debut on a very disappointing Baltimore team. But he did fly close to the sun towards the end of the year where he came close to a perfect game before a “hit” broke it up in the 8th inning. A weak ground ball by Luis Urias dribbled towards third base with Young picking it up and making an errant throw to first base. Scoring it as a hit was somewhat questionable, but it broke up the perfect game as well as the no-hitter. Young got out of the inning, and the Orioles then brought in a reliever to mop up the victory in the ninth inning. Even with that exceptional start, Young’s overall season line looks bad. A sub-20% K rate, a 6.24 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 1-7 record in 12 starts. He was unable to get lefties out and he gave up a lot of hard contact and barrels. He’s got a deep arsenal with 5-6 pitches, but none of them are above average. His success comes with good location, and as mentioned previously, getting hitters to put the ball on the ground. His split finger is particularly nasty when he is facing swing happy hitters, and maybe that’s something to build on. However, I wouldn’t get ahead of myself given how much contact Young gives up - it’s really hard to work into a reliable rotation piece with this sort of profile. We can spend our Hobby dollars elsewhere. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Kade Strowd (P, 28)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before - a reliever with strikeout stuff and a high walk rate as checklist filler in a Topps Flagship product. Ok, don’t stop me, because then this article would be about 80% shorter. Strowd debuted in May, but spent most of his time in Triple-A until late July, and from then on was able to stick in the Baltimore pen. He’s got a five pitch arsenal with everything either average or better from a Stuff+ perspective, but only the cutter showed any sort of regular command and control. And that’s likely why he threw the cutter just over 40% of the time, while everything else (four seamer, sinker, curveball, and sweeper) were in the 13% - 18% of usage range. The stuff is there to be a regular high leverage arm - will the command allow him to stick in that role? I wouldn’t be surprised to see it, especially as he seemed to get better and better with that as he got more settled at the MLB level later in the year. For now, he’s still one of the various Tier None reliever types, in this case, good stuff, bad command. But he’s one that’s worth keeping tabs on in case he does ascend to a closer job at some point in the next few years. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Maverick Handley (C, 27)
Is Maverick one of those popular boys' names nowadays, like Liam and Asher and Colton and Cooper and I could go on and on? Or were his parents fans of Top Guns? Or maybe both? I’ll go with Both! Hopefully he’s got a brother named “Goose”. Handley was one of various options the Orioles tried to fill in the catching gap left by various injuries from Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez because why wouldn’t Samuel Basallo be your team’s first and second and third and fourth option to fill a catching position opening on the MLB roster. Handley is a true backup catcher, org depth type player. He’s competent behind the dish with a decent amount of athleticism, can hit a few home runs, steal a few bases, and take more than his fair share of walks. But the bat just isn’t good enough to play regularly at the MLB level. He probably bounces around the league as a backup option for the next three to four years, but there isn’t much more growth remaining at almost 28 years old to envision him taking a step into real baseball relevance, let alone Hobby relevance. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Yaramil Hiraldo (P, 29)
Hiraldo has always had a plus change-up, which has helped him work his way through the minors and independent league ball to finally getting a debut in 2025 with Baltimore at the age of 29 years old. His four seamer sits around 95 mph, and against right handers, he’ll also throw an 86 mph slider. The problem is neither pitch is good, but the fastball is especially prone to getting crushed. Against lefties, he abandons the slider and cranks up the change-up usage to almost 60%, just to illustrate his lack of confidence in his other pitches. If you look at the top line results, you would assume he’s better than what I’m making it sound like. And that might be true, but I just don’t see many relievers that are change-up only pitchers have lasting success at the MLB level. It’s awesome to see a player stick out and make their debut after having to toil away in the Atlantic, Mexican, and Winter leagues for over two years before getting back into the affiliated ball mix. Outside of that minor nugget of interest, though, there isn’t much to interest us collectors, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we don’t see him on an MLB roster moving forward. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Tomoyuki Sugano (P, 36)
2025 Topps Update Series: I had Sugano in Tier 3 when I wrote him up mid-season purely based on his International appeal. At this point, with a fair bit of his cards on the market, I think the supply will probably outweigh the demand. The performance trended downwards all season, and even though he reportedly was tipping his pitches and fixed it, his results were mostly bad from June through the end of the season. Outside of limiting walks and his split finger doing most of the positive work, every other metric was below average or worse. Now a free agent since he was on a one year deal with the Orioles, he says he wants to pitch in the MLB in 2026. I can see it happening on a second division team, or perhaps a team that is competitive but wants some cheap back-end rotation options. If Sugano wants to sign another one year deal for the vet minimum and compete for the fifth spot in a rotation, he should be able to find it, maybe even with the Orioles again. But if he wants anything more than that, he could be left unsigned and may have to head back to Japan. Regardless, I think it’s pretty safe to drop him into Tier None with all of the other back-end starters and just like I said in the summer, sell anything you end up with.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
A long-time NPB pitcher of renown, Sugano finally landed in the MLB after his second attempt of going through the posting system. Originally posted after the 2020 MLB season, he did not come to terms on a deal and returned to his NPB team, the Yomiuri Giants. This time around, the Orioles made the move and picked up Sugano to a one year, $13M contract. At age 35, it’s not a huge surprise that Sugano was only able to secure a one year deal, even with his NPB credentials. Those are a three time MVP, two time Eiji Sawamura winner (similar to the Cy Young Award), and an eight time All-Star. That’s all to say, there is going to be a higher floor than normal for a 35 year-old rookie due to his international appeal in the card market. His profile on the other hand, especially at this stage of his career, is built on deception, limiting walks, and getting weak contact. He’s got a six pitch arsenal, none of which he throws more than 25% of the time or less than 10% of the time. He’s keeping hitters guessing, and he’s getting lucky. That may last in a small sample size, but if you believe it will long term, that’s the proverbial playing with fire. He’s currently running a .237 BABIP and xERA and xFIP’s over a run higher than his ERA as of writing. With a sub-14% K rate, there’s zero margin for error. If Sugano’s rookie cards had no international appeal, this is a Tier None, backend starting pitcher rookie card. With that track record and international appeal, it pushes him into Tier 3. With how bad the Orioles have been this season, and who knows what happens with Sugano in 2026 (does he head back to Japan, does he re-sign with the Orioles, or find another MLB team?), I would be selling any of his cards I ended up with. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Grant Wolfram (P, 28)
After being cut loose after the 2024 season by his only org he’d been a part of (Texas Rangers), the one that took him late in the 2018 draft (round 18), Wolfram signed an MLB deal with the Brewers but did not make the MLB roster out of Spring Training. Nestor Cortes went on the IL on April 6th and Wolfram got the call, but just a day later DFA’d him to make space on the 40-man roster for trade acquisition Quinn Priester, which incidentally turned out very well for the Brewers. Later that day, the Orioles picked up Wolfram for Quad-A org depth outfielder Daz Cameron (son of Mike). Wolfram split the rest of the season between Norfolk and Baltimore, showing reasons why he was able to get an MLB deal with no MLB experience this off-season while also showing why the Rangers moved on from him. There’s significant swing and miss potential that comes with command and walk issues. Coming from the left side with a four-seam and sinker combo around 96 mph that sets up swing and miss secondaries with a sweepy slider and two plane curveball. The question for Wolfram is if he can hit the zone and not get hit if his secondaries aren’t getting swing and misses? If so, he is a future high leverage guy, the typical lefty for the end of the game that you save to face the Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto’s of the world. If not, he’s still got some utility as a lefty, but falls more into that second or even third lefty in a pen. Regardless, the Hobby interest should be minimal at best. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
BOS
Tier 2
Marcelo Mayer (SS, 22)
The 2025 season for Mayer was more of the same story that has been consistent since being drafted by the Sox with the 4th overall pick in the 2021 Draft. When he plays, he looks pretty good, and the talent that led to him being taken that early is evident. But, the emphasis is on “when he plays”. Mayer hasn’t registered over 91 GP through what is now 4 full seasons in pro ball. Mayer split the 2025 season almost evenly between AAA Worcester (where the year began) and with the big club in Boston. Mayer hit, as he always has, at AAA, posting an .818 OPS in 43 games before getting the call. This came off an abbreviated 2024 season played entirely at AA Portland where he posted an .850 OPS in 77 games. After his promotion, Mayer was fine, posting a slightly below average .674 OPS in 136 ABs before being shelved for the year with a wrist injury. It’s quite easy to see the allure with Mayer- he is a good and versatile defender across the infield, and has the potential to hold down the hot corner for a decade, and could even play short at a decent level if need be. He’s probably a 15-20 homer guy with .800 ish OPS potential, so all in, there are the makings of an incredible valuable player in here. The issue, as mentioned, is the injury bug. The guy simply cannot stay on the field- when he does, he produces almost uniformly across any level. It’s a Tier One talent with a Tier None injury history. I’m going to put him in Tier Two for now. I actually wrote Tier One but have now circled back to update it as it just didn’t feel right. The lack of awesome power does hurt hobby value, and while he does play in a hot market (Boston), there isn’t really an insane carrying tool. His value will come from being pretty good at everything, and if he can stay healthy long term he should rack up numbers for WAR, making him a great long term investment.. If he can’t be on the field for 140+ games at some point, well, even Troy Tulowitzki saw his career fall off a cliff due to a similar injury bug. Lets hope he can get things going in 2026. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Kristian Campbell (2B, 23)
It was a very strange 2025 season for Campbell, whose status exploded perhaps more than any other prospect in baseball over the course of the 2024 season. The former fourth rounder out of Georgia Tech went absolutely nuts in 2024, posting a .997 OPS across three levels, with the bulk of the work coming at AA Portland where he hit .362 with a 1.045 OPS in 56 games. He fit right in over a 19 game stint at AAA Worcester to round out the year, and the hype train was full speed ahead. For this, Campbell inked an 8 year 60 Million Dollar contract with the Sox, giving the team a couple extra years of control, and Campbell a life changing paycheck. This momentum carried into his debut this Spring, where he was on fire for the Red Sox through the first month or so of the year after breaking camp with the big club. Campbell was named the AL Rookie of the Month for March/April, but what followed was quite similar to the path of his NL counterpart for the same award (Luisangel Acuna of the Mets). From this point on, Campbell’s year was pretty disastrous. After putting up a .902 OPS in 29 games through April, he went 11-82 in May, good for a .355 OPS (THREE FIFTY FIVE!), and was a bit better in June, going 9-44 for a .658 OPS, before almost mercifully being sent back down to Worcester. He was fine in AAA for the rest of the year, with a .799 OPS over 271 at bats, but this was a far cry from his recently adjusted expectations. Most concerning, he had a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 2.14 which is almost unbelievable. The rate had been a little high in 2024 at 1.34, but he was able to still post results. 2.14 is completely wild, though. Campbell, as a Second Baseman primarily, doesn’t play a particularly premium position nor does he do it very well, which is another issue when determining his value right now. The Sox have spoken positively about his work ethic, and seem to believe that his thinner frame did not help him hold up to a demanding role. The guy clearly can benefit from a bit of a mental reset, and it will be fascinating to see what 2026 looks like. The talent is absolutely there, and you hope for his sake that this isn’t a long term mental block and something he is able to adjust to and get back to being a mainstay at Fenway. The questions for Campbell are pretty simple- can he start lifting the ball again to do real damage, and what is his long-term defensive home? If he keeps pounding the ball into the ground and winds up being shoehorned in at First Base, he will not be close to a major leaguer. If he can start impacting the ball in the air and play even a 40-45 grade 2B? The Sox can pencil him in for Opening Day and “set and forget” the Second Base job for the next 7 years. He’s a Tier Two for me, but I really think you can argue for anything here and make some decent points.
NOTE- Our editor, Joe Lowry, had Campbell in Tier Two when he did the original write up for Campbell back at Series Two release in early June. This was before his demotion, and right around when his slump became particularly glaring across the league. Joe wrote in depth on Campbell’s issues at Second, echoing my present concerns regarding Campbell’s defensive ability, and seemed to hit the nail on the head with questioning Campbell’s long term defensive home (and how that would change his value). Joe settled on Tier Two for Campbell then, admitting he might be a bit low compared to the consensus and that Campbell had a case for Tier One, and that looks good in hindsight. I feel pretty good about putting him as a Tier Two guy, but a wildly volatile one. In a year, we will have a much better sense of the situation all around, and I could see him being entrenched in any of our Tiers besides Tier None. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier 3
Hunter Dobbins (P, 26)
Dobbins emerged as a nice organizational piece for the Red Sox in 2025. Debuting at 25 in April for the Sox, Dobbins posted a 4.13 ERA over 13 appearances (11 starts) good for 61 IP and a 4-1 record. The former 8th rounder hailing from Texas Tech was just about as average as it gets this year, and I mean that as a compliment. Any time you can get average starter production from a guy anywhere outside the first round even, it’s a home run pick. Dobbins doesn’t go about things in a particularly exciting or sexy way (45 K’s in 61 IP), but he gets outs- he posted a 100 ERA+, making him exactly league average for the year, and a FIP of 3.87.The Savant page shows a similar story, with a lot of 40-60th percentile results. He stands out with being in the 78th percentile for ground ball rate (48.4%), a major necessity for any pitcher at Fenway, and a 74th percentile walk rate (6.6%). He’s going to give up contact, but as long as he can continue to limit free passes and balls pulled to the Monster in left field, he should continue to putter along as a reliable back end of the rotation piece. Certainly a guy who is more valuable to a real life organization than he is in the Hobby, there isn’t a ton of appeal for Dobbins as a purchase in the product, but you could do a lot worse. He definitely earned a spot in Tier Three, partially due to being on a collectible team, but the ceiling is one of the lower ones for this Tier. He should be a reliable depth piece for the Sox for a while. It’s not fun or exciting, but he gets the job done fairly well. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier None
Luis Guerrero (P, 25)
I’ve been writing a bunch today and news broke that Guerrero was DFA’d 13 minutes ago as I was wrapping up my thoughts on Kristian Campbell. So, with the not super surprising twist that Guerrero will likely be moved in the near future for Cash Considerations or something similar, I can keep this one pretty brief. Guerrero debuted in September of 2024 for the Sox and was excellent, appearing in 9 games without surrendering an earned run, striking out 9 over 10 innings while allowing just 8 baserunners. This year, however, was not nearly as kind to Guerrero. Across 13 appearances in relief (17.1 IP), Guerrero pitched to a 4.15 ERA, but what was concerning was the 14:10 BB:K ratio. Even if it were flipped favorably to be 14 K to 10 BB’s in 17.1 innings, it would still be really bad. For what is now a team with Playoff expectations, it’s pretty tough to rely on a guy with a 19.4% walk rate. Guerrero will almost certainly get innings out of a Major League pen next year, and he shouldn’t be written off. But, it will likely come in an organization that can afford to take a bit more of a risk on him melting down at times. He’s a fine real world asset, but as far as collecting goes, there isn’t any value, especially given that he will likely be in a new organization before his Sox Rookie card is released. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
CHC
Tier 1
Cade Horton (P, 24)
The 24 year old former 7th overall pick out of Oklahoma (horns down) had an excellent rookie season, firmly entrenching himself as a Rookie of the Year contender on the back of a remarkable second half of the season. Horton debuted in May, and wasted no time getting down to business. After a handful of so-so starts, Horton caught absolute fire- after getting lit up by the Astros on June 27th, he made 14 starts and allowed 1 earned run or less in 12 of those starts, with the sole outliers being a 4 ER outing and a 2 ER outing. Horton entered this stretch with a 3-2 record, and came out the other side sitting at 11-4. His ERA, standing at 4.80 going into July, stands at 2.67 for the year now. Horton doesn’t generate a ton of whiffs, which may draw some questions regarding the sustainability of this elite run, but an 11-4, 2.67 ERA, 1.085 WHIP stat line is impossible to find issues with. Despite a pedestrian 7.4 K/9, Horton limited walks well (2.5 BB/9), and was able to limit the long balls, a tall task at Wrigley (0.8 HR/9). The FIP stands at 3.58 which shows there’s potential for a bit of regression here, but even still, that’s a really solid young arm to have in the rotation (especially now after Shota Imanaga has opted out). His Savant page is pretty unremarkable, however the pitch run values are all excellent despite not really excelling in any particular way. I think there’s probably a good argument to be made that Horton is a bit less than he showed this year, but even with some regression he is a strong 2nd or 3rd starter on a good team. He will deservedly get a lot of consideration for Rookie of the Year, and between a good market and potential hardware, I think there’s a reason to be excited over Horton’s cards. The results in 2025 and a highly collectable team dictate a fringe Tier 1 ranking, but if he doesn't back up his strong results, he may drift back into Tier 2 territory.
Note* Horton wound up finishing in 2nd place for NL ROTY, behind Drake Baldwin - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier 2
Moisés Ballesteros (C, 22)
An advanced hit tool is what you’re buying with Ballesteros. Because of the bat to ball skills and underlying strength in the fire hydrant frame, you’re getting at least above average power as a bonus. In Triple-A in 2025, where he spent most of the season, he was in the 95th percentile for zone swing and 72nd percentile for zone contact. Swinging that much in zone and making contact with it 86% of the time is the definition of being able to put bat to the ball. A K rate of just 13% and a whiff rate of just 20% further emphasize that. The power metrics were almost all strong as well - 81st percentile Max ev, 72nd percentile 90th percentile ev, 80th percentile Average ev, and 76th percentile hard hit rate. With so much contact, he’s just not going to hit the ball out as much as he potentially could. But 20 home runs is easily achievable with regular playing time. Our end of season Top 100 prospects list compared him to the likes of Alejandro Kirk, which probably wasn’t the first time that happened, and definitely won’t be the last time it happens. The real question, and it was also one with Kirk, is if Ballesteros can stick behind the dish. In the 20 appearances for Ballesteros with Chicago in his debut season, he only got on the field in two games. The first time was as a pinch hitter for first baseman Michael Busch in the 8th inning of a game which led to Ballesteros playing the 9th inning at first base. The second time was the next day, where he was the starting catcher, but in the 7th inning was moved to first base as part of a defensive switch. Every other game he was either the starting designated hitter or used as a pinch hitter. We don’t care about defense in the Hobby for the most part, but we do care that a hitter is getting almost daily playing time. The offensive profile of Ballesteros should guarantee that. The work in progress defense (he’s got a good arm, he needs to shore up the other parts of being a catcher) makes that a lot less of a guarantee. Right now Roster Resource has Mo Baller penciled in as a strong-side platoon DH for the 2026 Cubs lineup. This is another borderline Tier 2 and Tier 3 ranking, and that downside is all due to playing time concerns. I’m going to rank him in Tier 2 because the hit and power are just too good and he’s on a very collectable team. He’s a .300 hitter with 20 home runs at his peak, and those guys are hard to find. I’d just be a bit cautious with his cards because if he ends up stuck in a DH role, his risk of losing playing time is higher than I’d like. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier 3
Matt Shaw (3B, 24)
2025 Topps Update Series:
Shaw was just flat-out not a good hitter in his 2025 debut season. That was not something I was anticipating having to write coming into the season. He didn’t whiff much, and he kept his strikeout rate reasonable at 21%, but he still hit .226 and that wasn’t all to blame on the poor start. On the flip side, 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases aren’t bad tallies. Despite the 13 home runs, the power metrics looked pretty poor - 7th percentile hard hit rate, 5th percentile average ev, 13th percentile 90th ev, 18th percentile max ev, and 16th percentile bat speed. I’m still a bit perplexed that he was able to get to 13 home runs in 126 games, but the underlying talent can sometimes outperform the data. My 2025 Topps Series 2 write-up put him with a potential .300 20/20 type of offensive outcome. The 20 stolen bases is the one I am still very confident in. The 20 home runs and the .300 batting average? Maybe? Maybe not? It was his first season in the majors, and the batting stance and swing were not ideal. He’s still a work in progress, and he was sent down to Triple-A in May and came back with a different setup. It didn’t work, but at least he and the Cubs are trying to fix it. So I’ve hemmed and hawed between keeping Shaw at the Tier 2 ranking or dropping him into Tier 3. Until I see either the results return with the hit tool or the power metrics look at least reasonable, I’m temporarily dropping him into Tier 3. I wouldn’t sell or buy here - it’s more of a wait and see how he looks in 2026.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
A bat first prospect that was more expected than Kristian Campbell or Cam Smith to debut on their team’s Opening Day roster, Shaw had a really rough 18 game opening stint, leading to a reset back in Triple-A for just over a month. He’s come back in mid-May and in a super small sample, with a reduced leg kick, he’s hit .319 with 1 home run and 7 stolen bases. Defensively, he’s currently at third base, but I would prefer to see him at second base where his arm strength will be tested less. He is capable enough at third base to make it work until a better option presents itself to the Cubs, so I have less defensive worries with Shaw than say someone like Kristian Campbell. As Shaw continues to shore up the weaknesses with his swing, he can easily approach the .300 20/20 area. With a favorable home park, and his aggressiveness on the basepaths, that could be low, especially on the stolen base side of the equation. He’s not selling out for power, and makes a ton of contact all over the zone spraying the ball to all fields, rather than hunting the meatball like power over hit players. Without changes, that probably leaves less upside in his home run projection. Just like the other two short printed rookies, Shaw is on that borderline of Tier 1 and Tier 2. And just like the other two, I’m going to lean conservative here, and risk being dead wrong. There is an easy path to Tier 1 relevancy, with the collectible team, favorable park, and multiple potential All-Star games in the future. I’m just not sure I’m there yet, and want to see a much larger sample of success at the MLB level before I’m fully bought in. An elite, top 20 hitter is in the realm of possibilities, like it should be for most Tier 2 hitters. Shaw has an Altuve-ish offensive output potential that will sell like Tier 1 in peak seasons if everything breaks right. Of the three short print rookies, Shaw feels like the safest bet with the most all around talent. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Kevin Alcántara (OF, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series:
How did the Cubs not turn the Jaguar into something at this past trade deadline to boost their playoff potential still leaves me scratching my head. Could he not have been a piece or even the whole package to get Merrill Kelly or Shane Bieber into the Cubs rotation? The obvious concern, and why I would be trying to cash in my Alcántara chips, is the hit tool. In his first full season at Triple-A, he had a 30% K rate, 31% whiff rate, and was in the bottom 20th percentile for pulling the ball. He did show all the hallmarks of a power hitter, minus the pull rate - exit velocities, barrel rate, and hard hit rate were all in the top 20th percentile or better. But we already knew that was there, along with decent speed, stealing double digit bases. What we hoped to see in 2025 was hit tool growth, and it didn’t really happen, which would explain why he only had 10 games with the big league club in 2025. Still a young 23 years old, the hit tool could come around. With someone as tall and lengthy as Alcántara, you have to worry about the long levers and how hard it would be to make significant hit tool changes. Another complication to add in to the mix is that Alcántara had core-muscle surgery in mid-October, meaning there won’t be much time this off-season spent on baseball skills as he’ll be just working on regular rehab type activities. I had Alcántara in Tier 2 in my 2025 Topps Series 1 and Series 2 rankings with a glass half full mentality. Now that we’ve got the full season in the rear-view, the glass is half empty, and I’m dropping him down into Tier 3.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
High risk, high reward outfielder that is held back by his hit tool and inconsistent results, but is still just 22 years old. Had to be added to the 40 man roster, so the Cubs had him debut earlier than he really should have, which is why we get a rookie card here. There’s easy power in his lanky and athletic 6’6” physique, and enough speed that he should get into the double digit range. If the hit tool continues to trend positively as it did at times in 2024, there’s an everyday corner outfielder with 25 - 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an acceptable batting average. The collectable team boost pushes him into Tier 2.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
The Jaguar is giving us the full Jaguar experience in Triple-A in 2025. A power speed corner outfielder that has hit tool questions. Power - 7 home runs and a 90th Percentile exit velocity in the 97th percentile among all Triple-A hitters. Speed - 6 stolen bases. Hit tool questions - 32% strikeout rate. There’s some bright spots on the hit tool side - his zone contact rate is around average, his walk rate is in the double digits, etc. Ultimately I’m still of the same opinion I was previously - a palatable batting average with a 30/15 type of ceiling on a collectable team. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Gage Workman (3B, 26)
Gage Workman has never worn a Detroit Tigers uniform in a regular season MLB game. Gage Workman is getting rookie cards in a Detroit Tigers uniform. Make it make sense Topps. Workman was taken by the Cubs in the Rule V draft heading into the 2025 season and made the Opening Day roster as a bench bat. That lasted for about a month before the Cubs DFA’d him in late April. The White Sox, a team that actually should take shots on Rule V types like this rather than the Cubs, picked up Workman for cash considerations. That lasted for about a week, with Workman getting three games in the black and white uniforms, before going on the IL. After a few rehab games, ready to return to the White Sox active roster, they instead DFA’d him. This time Workman went unclaimed. At that point, he had to be offered back to the Tigers, who happily took him back and sent him to Toledo where he spent the remainder of 2025. A Cubs jersey or a White Sox jersey would have been more appropriate because Workman actually played MLB games in those uniforms, but sure, I guess it’s his longest tenured and current organization that you’d choose. Am I trying to avoid talking about Workman and get my word count up? Maybe! He’s a swing and miss power bat that plays an excellent third base. When he does make contact, he hits the ball very hard - 81st percentile 90th ev, 88th percentile Average ev, 98th percentile Barrel rate, 85th percentile Pull Air %, etc. But does he hit the ball, one might ask? 1st percentile in whiff rate, K rate, and 2nd percentile in Zone Contact rate. So the answer to the question is “not often”! That profile is going to take a lot of changes to find an everyday job at the MLB level - I can’t see it happening and ultimately think he’s ticketed as emergency depth/Quad-A slugger/KBO or Mexican league regular. Don’t spend your Hobby dollars here. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
CIN
Tier 3
Chase Petty (P, 22)
First rounder alert! Petty was taken with the 26th pick back in the 2021 MLB Draft by the Minnesota Twins, and traded to the Reds in March of 2022 as the headlining return piece of the Sonny Gray trade. Petty was a consensus fringe top 100 guy heading into the 2025 season, coming off a 2024 season where he posted a solid 4.20 ERA in 28 starts (26 of those coming in AA, the final 2 in AAA). The strikeout numbers (8.5 K/9) were a bit low, and the walks were fine-ish (3.9 BB/9), but this certainly was a solid foundation to build upon heading into a full year at AAA as a 22 year old. Not going to sugar coat it, the year went about as poorly as possible (injuries excluded) for Petty. Over 26 starts at AAA Louisville, Petty posted a 6.39 ERA in 112.2 IP, with a WHIP a hair over 1.60, an increased walk rate up to 4.6 BB/9, and meh strikeout numbers (8.1 K/9). Petty did get the call for the Reds, making two starts and one relief appearance. Unfortunately, it was more of the same- he got through just 6 IP across those appearances, allowed 14 walks and 8 hits to go with 3 long balls. He did strike out 7, but yeah, not good. Scanning the internet, it seems a lot of the conversation on Petty is now centered around “is he salvageable” which is never a great sign. Still, he doesn’t turn 23 until April of 2026, has a solid-ish fastball (95.9 MPH, but with only 12.4 inches of IVB), and throws 4 pitches consistently (how well, may be the more pertinent question). The Reds certainly should not block off a rotation spot for Petty heading into next season, but it would be equally foolish to write off a young arm who made the majors after one nightmarish season. If he had gone the college route, he would have been drafted in 2024 along some college arms like Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage, Hagen Smith, Brody Brecht, and Ben Hess. If you take out the obvious duo of Burns and Yesavage and look a bit deeper into that class, you can certainly talk yourself into having hope for Petty. Brecht was great in A ball this year, but is actually 7 months older than Petty and already turned 23. I suppose this is a long winded way of saying that Petty looks a lot better when compared to other pitchers his age for having made the Majors at all, and time is deserved to see what happens. Not sure I believe in the guy, but it would be stupid to get anywhere near giving up on him, either. For the pedigree and the fact he made the Majors at 22, I’m going to stick him in Tier Three, but I wouldn’t blame anyone arguing for Tier None. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Rhett Lowder (P, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series:
An oblique and a forearm injury led to a completely lost season for the Reds former 1st round pick in 2023. Lowder’s been pitching in the Arizona Fall League, which is good to see him get some innings under his belt before heading into the 2026 season. Outside of that, there’s not much that changes with my 2025 Topps Series 1 evaluation. Tier 3 ranking with some outside chances that he can climb into Tier 2 or fall into Tier None. Most importantly, he just needs a full season of health so we can see what that looks like at the MLB level and pitching in Great American Smallpark.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
If Lowder ever shows a big velocity spike (and not the injury concerns that often come with those spikes), you can throw out everything I’m about to say. If it feels like you’ve heard that before, it’s essentially what I said in the 2023 Bowman Draft write-up. Back then, he was essentially the second best pitcher in the product (Skenes was the obvious one) although Hurston Waldrep mowing down the minors after the draft certainly called that into question at the time. With another year under our belt, it is easier to put Lowder in that second slot, but the current context of his situation pushes him down into Tier 3. The strikeout stuff just isn’t there, especially against advanced hitters in Great American Smallpark. What is there is a mid-rotation pitcher - the classic high floor, low ceiling SP3 that knows how to pitch and get the most out of his arsenal. And that is very valuable in Cincinnati - challenging hitters there with fastballs down the pipe is asking for trouble. Lowder throws his pitches all over the zone with a good pitch mix and excellent sequencing. When he is on, he is generating weak contact, getting plenty of ground balls, and surprising hitters when he does pop it right down the middle. In his six games at the MLB level, he did not give up one home run, as evidence of him knowing what he is about and how he needs to pitch. If Lowder had a more sexy strikeout rate, or heck, even an everyday rotation role heading into the season, I’d have him in consideration for Tier 2, just like I had him in 2023 Bowman Draft. Lacking those important ingredients, unfortunately there just isn’t any Hobby juice to squeeze. I’m not a buyer, but I’d also hold until he does get another shot at the MLB rotation because he could rack up wins if Cincinnati can deliver on the promise of their young core of talent. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Luis Mey (P, 24)
Hailing from the Dominican Republic, the 24 year old Mey is built like an NFL defensive end at 6’5” 235 lbs. Mey posted a 3.43 ERA in 23 appearances (all out of the bullpen) in 2025 for the Reds, where the surface numbers masked some scary underlying ones. Mey walked 17 in his 21 innings- this to go along with 17 hits for a 1.61 WHIP with exactly a strikeout per inning (21 K in 21 IP). He was pretty great over 40 relief innings in AAA Louisville, with a 2.48 ERA. 10.4 K/9, and a high but not terrifying 4.7 BB/9. The walks have long been an issue for Mey, posting a BB/9 of 9, 6.7, 8.6, and 7 from 2021-2024, respectively. Mey relies on a power sinker as his primary, clocking in at 98.9 MPH on average (thrown 73% of the time). Coming from a guy that size, you can see why he has moved through the minors pretty quickly despite glaring control issues. In May, Mey hit 103.2 on the radar gun with his sinker in AAA. He’s on the record as being a “throw it down the middle as hard as he can” guy, so hopefully he can mirror another former Reds flamethrower who just this year learned that he should be aiming his pitches, Aroldis Chapman. He’s fun, I like him, and part of this Hobby is about collecting guys who hit those two criteria for you, so I’m putting him in Tier Three because after writing this, I will be tucking away a few Mey cards with the hope of him becoming a lockdown closer. He has the build, the stuff, and the easy chance for a terrifying walk in from the Pen to Justin Timberlake’s “It’s Gonna be May” with the lights turned off (Terry Francona, please!). - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Tier None
Tyler Callihan (2B, 25)
Callihan was selected by the Reds in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of the high school ranks, and debuted for the big club this year as a 25 year old in left field. Callihan was only able to record 6 at bats before going down for the year, needing season-ending arm surgery. He went 1-6 in his short stint, so there really isn’t a point in discussing that further. In 2024, primarily playing at AA Chattanooga, he posted a .788 OPS including a four game stint at AAA Louisville. He’s consistently been a mid .700’s OPS bat through the minors, and he started off the year hot in AAA, with a .938 OPS in 24 games, earning a call up to the Reds. Unfortunately, he is probably best known for what caused the season ending surgery. In early May in just his third start as a big-leaguer, Callihan chased down a slicing foul ball off the bat of Matt Olson and crashed into the wall in foul territory. You can look up the video if you’d like, but I would warn against it- quite frankly it makes the recent Jayden Daniels injury look like a paper cut. Obviously you hope that Callihan is good to go for Spring, especially considering that the injury happened on May 5th, but once again I am not a Doctor and do not want to really speculate on an injury like that. I’d say he’s fringe Tier Three/Tier None but with another toss up coming up for the Reds, I think I have to go with Tier None here. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Levi Jordan (OF, 29)
Quick one here. Jordan is 29, went 1-10 with the sole hit being a double for the Reds in 2024, then didn’t appear at the big league level in 2025. He posted a .652 OPS in 122 games at AAA as a 29 year old this year, and his claim to fame (which is cool) is that he appeared at all nine positions in a game for the AAA Louisville Bats in September. Any time you’re doing something that Will Ferrell did for charity in Spring Training, you’ve probably passed into more of the gimmicky fun guy territory than anything. Tier None, but glad he could have a fun moment at least! - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Eric Yang (C, 27)
Yang is a 27 year old catcher who struck out in his sole Major League at bat in 2024. He posted a .580 OPS in AAA this year, and judging by his games played every year (maxing out at 76 in 2021, hovering between 34-48 since), he is an org-filler back up type. Maybe it’s because I just spent 498 words trying to talk myself into Chase Petty, but I don’t think much more detail is necessary on Yang. Mercifully, there is no Yang auto in this product, so don’t stress about that! - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Evan Kravetz (P, 28)
Kravetz threw two thirds of an inning for the Reds in 2024, retiring both batters. He didn’t appear again in 2024, and threw 19.1 innings to a 5.59 ERA in AAA in 2025 as a 28 year old. He was put on the development list for a bit in May, then hit the 60 day DL in July. He also got DFA’d after his appearance in 2024, although obviously stayed in the organization despite losing his 40 man spot. I’m actually having a tough time even figuring out why he got placed on the IL, and don’t want to make anything up. I googled “Evan Kravetz Injury 2025” and nothing remotely useful popped up on the first page, so I decided to call it a day there. He is 6 foot 8 and a lefty, which is fun. The good news is that Kravetz graduated from Rice, so if baseball doesn’t work out, that's certainly one of the best D1 baseball schools to hold a degree from. We’re shootin’ for positives here folks! - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
CLE
Tier 3
Erik Sabrowski (P, 28)
Sabrowski was actually pretty great in a real sample size out of the pen for the Guards in 2025. After debuting late in 2024 with 12.2 scoreless innings to go along with 19 K’s, Sabrowski earned a spot in this year's Pen, where he posted a 1.84 ERA in 33 appearances (29.1 IP). Sabrowski has the “effectively wild” profile- 12.9 K/9 and 6.4 BB/9, allowing only 4.3 H/9 and two long balls on the season. The lefty overcame an early season injury to get back into action in late June, and he was a key piece for the Guardians down the home stretch, posting a dozen holds in higher leverage duty. More reliant on deception and shape than anything, Sabrowski doesn’t throw hard (4 seamer averages 93.9 MPH) and relies heavily on that fastball at 68% usage. The IVB is strong, at 19.8 inches, and the slider and curve both show decent metrics. He gives up a ton of balls in the air (29.1% ground ball rate), which concerns me a good bit. Hitters have struggled to square up the heater, particularly left on left, and the spin rate is great, but I worry that with more video/data available to hitters over time Sabrowski could become less effective. He’s certainly earned himself a tier three spot here with the results he posted, but could be fairly volatile moving forward. As we all know, there's plenty of opportunity in Cleveland's bullpen at the moment. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Tier None
Doug Nikhazy (P, 26)
“Crazy Nikhazy” as they call him (I just made that up, and have no idea if anyone calls him that- it does feel like something a team should lean into if he becomes a high leverage reliever. Lotta lights, pyrotechnics, you get the idea,) Nikhazy debuted with a start and a relief appearance for the Guardians in 2025. Nikhazy was drafted in the 2nd round back in 2021 out of Ole Miss, and the lefty saw some middling results in the minors before a phenomenal 2024 season split between AA and AAA, posting a 2.98 ERA over 123.2 innings with 124 K’s. Nikhazy struggled in AAA on the second go around this year, posting a 5.02 ERA in 86 innings. The debut was a home start against the Red Sox in April, where he went 3 innings and allowed 6 ER (as well as 5 hits and 6 walks). He came back up on the Fourth of July, appearing in relief with a much less eventful clean inning accompanied by a pair of punchouts. Nothing much to really say about the profile, probably becomes a Quad-A swingman type. He sits at 90 on the dot with his heater, so that probably eliminates my aforementioned dream of him getting in some high leverage spots. The Savant page shows 95th percentile extension and a load of blue. Keep movin’ on this one. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Zak Kent (P, 27)
Kent was a 27 year old rookie this past season, debuting in late April for the Guardians where he posted a 4.58 ERA over 12 appearances (17.2 IP). 8 of the 12 appearances came in September down the stretch, but seemingly most if not all of these appearances were in clean up duty. He has an off-speed heavy arsenal, with a slider being thrown more than anything else (39%). The 4 seamer sits at 92.6 MPH and is used 29% of the time, and the Savant profile shows that he did well to limit hard contact, however the K and BB rates were below where you would want them to be. Teams will always need a plethora of arms to get through the 162 game regular season, so it would seem likely Kent will at the very least serve as depth for an organization in a swingman role between AAA and the Majors. If he can continue to limit quality contact, you could do worse out of the pen. No real hobby appeal, however. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Will Wilson (SS, 26)
Wilson was drafted with the 15th overall pick by the Angels back in 2019 out of NC State, and made his debut for the Guardians this year at 26 years old. Wilson struggled at nearly every minor league level, posting a .705 OPS. He did show some signs of life early this year at AAA Columbus, posting a .760 OPS with 11 homers over a 70 game sample, where he cut the overall K rate from >25% down closer to 20%. Wilson failed to get his first homer this go around, with 91 plate appearances cumulating in a .511 OPS. Unfortunately, Savant shows a ton of blue with no bright spots. For a smaller (5’ 10” 184 lbs) middle infield utility type, there just isn’t much here to get excited about despite the draft pedigree. On his third organization thus far, it is a bit difficult to imagine many, if any, more opportunities in the Bigs arise for Wilson. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Nic Enright (P, 28)
Yet another Guardians reliever, Enright had a really nice year for the big club, with a 2.03 ERA over 27 appearances (31 IP). Enright sat just under a K per inning, with 30 punchouts in those 31 innings, and the walk rate was fine as well (3.5 BB/9). The 28 year old rookie became a relied upon piece after debuting on May 25th, though his season ended early with a trip to the 15 day IL with the dreaded “elbow/forearm inflammation” tag. He did actually get activated by the end of the year, but didn’t make an appearance in the Playoffs. On a more inspiring note, Enright is a cancer survivor, diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in December of 2022. Per the MLB website, Enright has one round of treatment remaining, coming this month. I don’t want to speak too deeply on this, as I am not an oncologist nor do I want to get anything wrong or misrepresent facts regarding someone's battle with cancer. An inspiring story and easy guy to root for, as well as a promising bullpen arm, but a Tier None guy for now. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
COL
Tier 3
Adael Amador (2B, 22)
2025 Topps Update Series: Not much has changed since my 2025 Topps Series 1 write-up except that instead of Amador delivering good looking top line results at Double-A, he did the same at Triple-A this year. Mix that in with the Rockies again thinking incorrectly he would be able to handle MLB pitchers at various times through the year, and I don’t have any new opinions. I suppose I saw some Tier 2 upside if the home run power he displays in the minor leagues is real - 15 - 20 home runs simply because he plays in Colorado felt possible. But even in hitter friendly minor league parks, his Triple-A power data is underwhelming with an 87 mph Average exit velo, 103.3 mph 90th percentile exit velo, and a woeful 3% barrel rate. This is the classic contact and speed profile that in a year or two “should” start making an impact at the top of the Rockies lineup. But it’s the Rockies, so good luck trying to guess on how things will turn out, especially with Jonah Hill running the show there now.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Amador has the potential for plus hit and run tools, but 2024 has all of us questioning if the hit tool can stand up to advanced pitching. Strangely, the Rockies decided to call-up Amador in June straight from Double-A, where he had only 56 games total in his career. That organization’s decisions continue to baffle me. Regardless, Amador still has all the hit tool ingredients that I’m willing to mostly ignore the poor results and write off some of that to his oblique injury that ended his 10 game debut for the major league club. In Colorado, Amador should be a table setter towards the top of their lineup, but it’s getting harder and harder to buy into young Rockies hitters. For that reason, I am erring on the side of caution and tipping the balance toward Amador being more of a Tier 3 player, at least in the short term, with some Tier 2 upside. I’d probably bargain hunt cheap Amador rookie cards in 2025 with my eyes wide-open that it only has a small chance to pay off since he isn’t likely to hit more than 10 to 15 home runs most seasons. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Chase Dollander (P, 24)
If you, the reader, were asked to rank Rockies pitchers in Tiers like we do here, how hard would you ding them in the ranks? In general, I’m relatively comfortable dropping them one Tier and calling it a day, but Dollander is someone I question if I should really do so or not. The talent (SP2/SP3), draft pedigree (9th overall in 2023), and prospect pedigree (consensus top Rockies prospect coming into 2025) all add up to a Tier 2 ranking. The results illustrate the nightmare it is for any pitcher, even the most talented, to have to regularly pitch in Colorado. In home games, Dollander had a 9.98 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 15% K rate, 11% walk rate and hitters had a .337.417/.577 triple slash. In road games, Dollander had a 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 22% K rate, 11% walk rate and hitters had a .200/.297/.324 triple slash. Outside of the walk rate, that is a STARK difference. I’m not even going to go further in depth here - Dollander is a young up and coming stud if he’s pitching for almost any other organization, and because half his games will be in Colorado for the next 5 years, the most likely outcome we can expect is Tier 3 relevancy. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Zac Veen (OF, 23)
The dream of a five tool player that seemed possible when Veen was drafted 9th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft seems to have completely evaporated at this point. Veen believers still think everything but the power is still possible to deliver on, and with Colorado as his home park, even the power could play above what he’s shown in games to this point. The one tool I’m most confident in is Veen’s speed - 55 stolen bases in 2022 in the minor leagues is hard to fake. Even that confidence is minimal as the stolen bases have trended down significantly - some of it due to lack of playing time from injuries, and likely some of that due to the organization or maybe even Veen himself curtailing it so as to avoid more injuries. The hit tool seems to work against minor league pitching, but has yet to do so against MLB pitching. Granted, that was a 12 game sample which we can essentially throw out. My main concern with the hit tool is that Veen is too aggressive. In Triple-A in 2025 he had a 51% swing rate, a 31% outside the zone swing rate, and a 25% whiff rate. With that much swing, a so-so whiff rate will skyrocket at the MLB level, taking his 20% K rate in Triple-A and potentially adding 5%-10% more against MLB pitching. When breaking it down by pitch type, those numbers look especially bad against breaking balls, and a lot better against fastballs. Guess what he’ll see a lot of at the MLB level - really good breaking balls and not many fastballs. As you might be able to tell by this write-up, I’m not a Veen believer. He’s probably an everyday regular on a second-division roster like the Rockies continuously field as long as he can hit above the Mendoza line. That could lead to something like a 15-20 home run line simply through accumulation of at bats in that home park, and similar stolen base numbers. It’s a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None ranking for me. Because of the name value as he’s had draft pedigree and prospect helium at various times, he’s going into Tier 3. Despite that ranking, I’m selling all day long. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Zach Agnos (P, 25)
A buzzy reliever at a few points during this season in fantasy circles as the usual overpaying for saves in-season activities were going on, Agnos was able to pick up four saves for Colorado in 2025. The Rockies didn’t have a ton of save opportunities to really vault Agnos’ name into the general baseball conversation, and then Agnos went down with the dreaded flexor strain. Fortunately for Colorado and Agnos, he was able to rehab and came back for two appearances at the MLB level before the season wrapped up. Agnos succeeds when he is mixing his pitches and speeds to keep hitters off-balance. Against right-handers, that’s a cutter, four-seamer, and sweeper mix. Against left-handers, that’s a cutter, four-seamer, and splitter mix. He’s not really fooling MLB hitters, as his respectable minor-league K rate absolutely disappeared against big leaguers, just under 14%. Unless he finds the key to unlocking the 30% K rates he was showing off in the minors, which seems unlikely, he probably lands in a middle-relief role with some occasional save opportunities. Another nice real baseball find for Colorado, but there’s nothing to latch onto for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Jack O'Loughlin (P, 25)
A soft-tossing lefty swingman that debuted with the A’s in 2024, O’Loughlin may have seen his last opportunity at affiliated ball in 2025. The Rockies signed him to a minor league deal during this past off-season, but he never made it out of Triple-A. By mid-July, he opted out of his minor league deal and was not picked up by any other organization. There’s almost nothing of interest here outside of being Australian. Perhaps he plays in the Australian Baseball League during our winter, which just happens to be summer in Australia. One thing watching Bluey has reminded me is that the Christmas holiday comes in the heat of summer Down Under. Another thing Bluey has taught me is that children’s cartoons can be elite television regardless of your age - don’t @ me. Anyways, if O’Loughlin can show some life in a winter league, maybe he gets another minor league deal in 2026, but I’m guessing he’s going to most likely be pitching outside of affiliated ball for the foreseeable future. Unless you collect Australian player baseball cards like Pro Scouting Director Rhys White, you can safely ignore O’Loughlin’s cards. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Carson Palmquist (P, 25)
Back in my 2022 Bowman Draft preview, I slid Carson Palmquist into Tier 3 for two reasons - the prevalent Chris Sale throwing motion comps and a hope he could get back to his mid-90’s velocity he showed in relief prior to his draft year when he was starting and throwing 90 mph heaters. Fast forward to 2025 and Palmquist has stuck in the rotation (a question I had back in 2022 and to be honest, still one I have today), but the fastball velocity has not taken the hoped-for step up. His side-arm slot and pitch mix from the left side was a challenge for most minor league hitters. Major league hitters, on the other hand, have feasted on his low velocity offerings. The sweeper is his only pitch that is a positive which, to no surprise, is why it’s his second most frequently thrown pitch at 31%, just behind his four seamer at 42%. The rest of his arsenal includes a cutter and a sinker, with a show-me change-up that he’s only used against righties. Outside of the sweeper, there’s very little to be interested in with Palmquist. Maybe there’s a mid-rotation innings eater on a desperate-for-pitching team like Colorado, but in about any other org, he likely best fits as the second lefty in the pen that would get some occasional opener type of innings mixed in. At one point, I considered him at the bottom of Tier 3, but not having taken the next step, and with the deck stacked against him in Colorado, he’s cemented his Tier None Hobby status. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Juan Mejia (P, 24)
It’s easy to see Mejia as a future closer in Colorado, but he’s not there yet. He’s a two pitch guy with a 97 mph four seamer and an 83 mph slider. Both pitches can flash plus and get swing and miss. Mejia’s primary challenge is what to do against left-handers, and continue to work on limiting free passes. He drops his slider usage way down against lefties and will either need to find a variation to that pitch or some other strategy to handle those hitters. Even with his current approach and deficiencies, Mejia limits hard contact (89th percentile hard hit rate and 99th percentile exit velocity), gets plenty of whiffs (76th percentile chase and 85th percentile whiff), and is still young enough at 25 years old to still have another level that could be unlocked (winning against lefties). If Mejia was on a more collectable team and/or a winning team, I’d be more inclined to think of him as one of the few rookie reliever exceptions that could be in Tier 3. Pitching in Colorado simply eliminates that possibility. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Braxton Fulford (C, 26)
A quintessential backup catcher profile that can do everything asked of him in that role, but doesn’t provide much value beyond that. He was on the fringe of the Rockies roster off and on all season as they rotated through retreads Jacob Stallings and Austin Nola in 2025. Offensively, Fulford does have enough power to put the ball over the fence, which may look good in short stints in Colorado, and he’s faster than you’d realize even if he doesn’t steal a ton of bases. However, I don’t imagine he’ll provide any long term Hobby value and I’d be selling his cards for anything I could get. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Jeff Criswell (P, 24)
Formerly a starter with a bland profile, the Rockies transitioned Criswell to the bullpen full time in 2024. The curveball took a back seat and he became primarily a mid-90’s four seam fastball and slider arm with the occasional change-up. The move to relief was a smart one, as the K rate jumped into the 30% range and he was able to keep the walks manageable in the 10% area. As much as I tend to slag Rockies development, they do show the ability to uncover competent relief arms on a regular basis. Unfortunately, Criswell went under the knife for TJ prior to the 2025 season, which eliminates even the smallest amount of Hobby interest we could have had here. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Tanner Gordon (P, 28)
Gordon is a backend starter that looks to fill up the zone and limit free passes. In Colorado, those types could turn into long-term mid-rotation starters given the dearth of options for the Rockies. Gordon is on the lower end of the velocity band with a 92 mph four seamer which he pairs with a slider and a change-up. The slider and the change-up both can be successful in small spurts, but ultimately Gordon isn’t fooling many big league hitters. It’s truly trying to make big league hitters get themselves out as he’s in the zone 53% of the time, which is in the 98th percentile for starting pitchers. That leads to a paltry 5% walk rate - a top 15 mark for MLB starting pitchers. This profile would definitely work better in pitcher friendly parks like San Francisco or Seattle - but in literally the most hitter friendly park in baseball, Gordon has zero margin for error. And that does not lead to any sort of Hobby opportunity. As a general rule of thumb, you should sell Rockies pitchers, and Gordon is not the exception to that rule. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Ryan Rolison (P, 28)
The Rockies 1st round pick in the 2018 MLB draft, Rolison is another in a long line of Colorado draft picks that have not delivered on the anticipated value. Shoulder surgery in 2023 was basically the final nail in the coffin of Rolison’s fading future impactful value, and he’s now been shifted into a full-time bullpen role. As a 28 year-old left-hander, there’s likely an extended shelf-life on that bullpen role, but he’s just not very effective. He’s currently throwing an average velocity 93-mph four seamer that he pairs with a curve-ball. Against left-handers, he will throw his slider as well, but his best pitch being reserved for same-handed hitters isn’t an ideal situation. In his debut MLB season, a 13% K rate and a 23% HR/FB rate in Colorado is simply asking for trouble. That’s not a good combination in real baseball, fantasy baseball, or the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
CWS
Tier 3
Edgar Quero (C, 22)
One half of the young dynamic duo that is the White Sox catching position, Quero is more of the hit over power backstop while Teel is more of the power and speed option. As Teel is a lefty and Quero is a switch hitter, Teel may get more of the strong-side reps. A switch hitter, Quero’s splits lean heavily towards success against left-handed pitching, furthering the narrative that Quero could end up on the short side of the platoon. Neither Quero nor Teel are strong enough behind the plate to completely turn it into a full time job in their favor, so it truly feels like a 1a and 1b type of platoon for the foreseeable future in Chicago. Quero excels through the limiting of whiffs (71st percentile), strikeouts (72nd percentile), and knowing the zone (o-swing 96th percentile). Contact and swing metrics are all average to above average. Hard hit rate does come in at the 69th percentile (nice), but he’s not looking to pull the ball. It’s more of putting the ball in play that pulling it for power as his pull percentile metrics are in the bottom 10th percentile of the league. Quero isn’t a backup catcher, but neither is he truly a starting catcher. If you asked me to choose either Quero or Teel through the Hobby lens, I’m taking Teel all day long. But there’s still some value in Quero in similar ways that Keibert Ruiz and Gabriel Moreno at one time or another had some value. The rank is Tier 3 because there is still some name value in prospect pedigree circles, the hit tool can lead to a high batting average, he did show some home run power in the minors even if he’s yet to do so at the MLB level, and ultimately he’s not a backup catcher which would be an automatic Tier None rank. I wouldn’t argue with someone that ranks him in Tier None, and I would recommend selling even with my Tier 3 ranking. There’s very little Hobby goodness in the profile in the long term unless he shifts his focus to bring back the power and shows better splits against right-handed pitching. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Shane Smith (P, 25)
A huge Rule V success story for the White Sox in 2025, Shane Smith was plucked from what is becoming a stronger and stronger pitching development org in Milwaukee. On a young team with a few vets trending towards washed up, a former potential superstar that has struggled due to injury and head-scratching under-performance, and a slew of young kids getting their first or second taste of the majors, Smith was a standout. That earned him the one guaranteed All-Star game roster spot, even if four of his final five games heading into the All-Star break were among the worst of his debut season. Ultimately, it’s a mixed bag with Smith - none of his five pitches are standouts, but all provide some form of utility. The slider is probably the weakest of the bunch, and is used almost exclusively against right-handers. The fastball and the change-up are the best of the bunch with Stuff+ favoring the change-up and statcast run value favoring the 96 mph four seamer. It’s a bland profile - a 24% K rate with a 9% walk rate and a 3.81 ERA that was near his ERA indicators all sort of fall middle of the pack. It’s a back-end starter floor with maybe just a slight bit of upside into fringe SP 3 territory. That upside is buoyed by the fact that he had pitched less than seven innings in Triple-A before being thrown into the fire of a full-time MLB job due to the nature of being a Rule V selection. In theory, he’s still got more to learn and can take positive steps forward. In general, the results and profile dictate more of a Tier None ranking. Given his relative success in 2025 and, unless something changes this off-season, his role as the number 1 pitcher in the White Sox rotation in 2026, there’s enough extra juice in the short term to bump him into Tier 3. I would still be a seller though, even if it’s been one of the more impressive seasons in recent memory from a Rule V pick. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Chase Meidroth (SS, 24)
One of the four prospects traded to the White Sox by the red colored Sox for ace Garrett Crochet, Meidroth is an all contact, almost no power middle infielder. Debuting less than two weeks into the season, Meidroth ended up playing 122 games and got just over 500 plate appearances - a few minor thumb injuries led to a couple of IL stints. He ended with a .253/.329/.320 triple slash with 5 home runs, 14 stolen bases, a 14% K rate, and a 9% walk rate for a wRC+ of 87. In a full season of games, the home runs probably live in that 5-10 home run range with the stolen bases in the 10 - 20 range. The one number that probably isn’t representative is the batting average - I expect that to be more in the .275 - .300 range with his plus hit tool. A 13% whiff rate and a 91% zone contact rate imply future improvement in the batting average, especially as he gets more comfortable with the MLB strike zone. He was very passive (53% zone swing rate), and that needs to shift to patience. It’s actually an improvement over 2024 where he had a 43% zone swing rate. If his zone approach remains passive, then it becomes a problem that doesn’t see the batting average jump into plus territory. Absent that, his value goes from a top of the order table-setter to a bottom of the order second division regular. That’s the difference between Tier 3 and Tier None. In the short term, I’m going to lean Tier 3 and keep a close eye on that zone swing rate. If he’s not hitting .300 or close to it, there’s no Hobby value to be had because he is on a bad team and doesn’t hit for any power to take notice of. Even with that optimistic lean towards Tier 3, I’d be selling everything I end up with. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Tim Elko (1B, 26)
Remember when Tim Elko came up and hit 3 home runs in 10 games and people spent 20% of their FAAB budget on him? Not me, of course. I wouldn’t ever do something like that! Never! Couldn’t have been me! Now that we’ve established that it wasn’t me who did that, we can talk about the next in the longest line of Quad-A corner power bats. Do you ever look at a statcast chart where all the power metrics are bright red and fill up the horizontal bars while all the hit metrics are deep blue and barely showing on the horizontal bars? If you’ve not seen that before, go check out Elko’s Triple-A chart. I could quote all those metrics, but I won’t bore you to death - it’s as simple as “power good, hit bad”! He hit 26 home runs and struck out 30% of the time in Triple-A - as we know, most metrics trend negative as players make the jump from Triple-A to the MLB - so maybe he can still hit 20 - 30 home runs with full playing time, but it would come at the cost of a K rate well over 30%, which almost never works at the MLB level. Maybe Elko gets a few more looks while the White Sox remain a second division team, and perhaps a few other stops on the second division team carousel in Colorado or Miami or something like that. However, I’m not holding my breath that he gets a sustained everyday role where we actually can take advantage of his Hobby-friendly power. If you do end up with his cards, I’d be ready to sell the moment he comes up again and repeats the multiple home runs in a short stint before he again turns into a strikeout king. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Mike Vasil (P, 25)
Vasil picked up his 1st Bowman cards to start off the year and making the White Sox Opening Day roster as a bullpen arm has led to rookie cards the second half of the year. A former Mets prospect that had some back-end starter intrigue, Vasil was left unprotected after the 2024 season and the Rays snatched him up in the Rule V draft. The Rays decided it wasn’t going to work and waived Vasil during Spring Training and the White Sox pounced. Vasil ended up thriving with Chicago in a multi-inning, middle relief role with an occasional follower opportunity and even a few high leverage chances. The diverse, former starter arsenal served him well as he looked to limit hard contact and get ground balls, which he did in spades at a 51% rate. The sinker and change-up really helped the cause in keeping the ball out of the air. There are some issues, as Vasil gave up too many walks, and if he needs a strikeout, his whiff pitches (four seam fastball and sweeper) aren’t always blowing hitters away. Does Vasil move back to the rotation now that the Rule V period is done? I doubt it - why change something when it worked. This is a great result baseball wise for the White Sox and to a certain degree, Vasil. Sure, the potential to make more money for a pitcher comes from the rotation, but having any MLB job is something few people get to say. From a Hobby perspective, none of the boxes are ticked outside of a regular job, so we can ignore Vasil’s cards. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Fraser Ellard (P, 28)
Ellard is a sling-y, three quarters delivery lefty reliever that gets a ton of whiffs and strikeouts but gives up way too many free passes. His K rates are regularly in the high twenties to low thirties and are almost always in the double digits - the quintessential “good with the bad”. In his 17 MLB innings in 2025 (a 60 day IL stint due to a Lat strain limited his 2025 innings), he had a 30% K rate and a 26% walk rate! He’s not just a lefty specialist - he can be a problem for hitters on both sides of the plate. The arsenal is a mid-90’s four seamer and sinker paired with a sweepy slider. Against right-handers he’ll also break out a change-up. The slider is the star of the show and generates a 47% whiff rate. If Ellard can ever get the walk rate into the single digits, he’s got a high leverage future. If not, he’s probably going to bounce around second division bullpens as a lefty option. Just a hint of Tier 3 upside, but he’s nowhere close to it currently. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Caleb Freeman (P, 27)
Freeman is a middle reliever that has at times shown strikeout stuff but that regularly comes with walk issues. He got five appearances split between May and June before being outrighted off of the 40-man roster, and now that the season is done, he’s become a minor league free agent. The high strikeout rates we saw in the lower minors haven’t consistently carried through to the upper minors or in his brief MLB stint. If he can’t bring that back to the table, the consistently high walk rates effectively kill any MLB team interest. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him going the route of non-affiliated ball in 2026. Any way you slice it, there should be zero Hobby interest in his cards. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
DET
Tier 2
Jackson Jobe (P, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series: In my 2025 Topps Series 1 write-up, I had Jobe in Tier 1 and was bull-ish on his potential. In 2025 Topps Series 2, I knocked Jobe down into Tier 2 with a worrying flexor strain and inconsistent results in the 49 innings he logged prior to the injury. And shortly after publish, it was confirmed that Jobe would go under the knife for TJ surgery, cementing that drop into Tier 2. At this point, there’s not much else to say. I’m not knocking him down further in the ranks. The talent is Tier 1. The injury and comments that make you think he’d rather just challenge hitters instead of trying to strategize how to beat them gives me plenty of justification to maintain his Tier 2 ranking. At this point, there’s no reason to drop him further. As with almost every single injured pitcher, you should NOT be buying their cards unless they are dirt cheap. But I am keeping him in Tier 2 from a long term perspective, and any of his cards I do end up with probably go into a box and sit there for another 12 - 18 months.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
It’s a shame that Jobe doesn’t have his true rookie card in this product because the overall rookie class in this product isn’t the best. Adding a potential SP1, future ace as more than just one insert and a couple of autos would have been the smart move to beef up the checklist. Other than needing to build up innings and perhaps some health question marks, it’s difficult to poke holes in Jobe’s potential. He has four plus or better pitches with plus control. Our own Ryan Epperson comped him to peak Gerrit Cole and as lofty as that seems, it almost seems like underselling Jobe (it’s not, but Cole did not have a very Cole-like season in 2024 which contributes to that feeling). If his autos are cheap, especially if he doesn’t make the opening day roster because the Tigers have enough veteran arms to open the year with, then it will be time to scoop them up.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
This is why you should have put Jobe’s True Rookie Card in Series 1, Topps! While he’s not performed great, what I’m more talking about is that he’s now dealing with a flexor strain. Typically that’s a 4 to 6 week injury, but it’s also often a precursor to needing elbow surgery. Back in February, I was willing to buy low on Jobe cards. Now in June, with a potential TJ procedure looming, I’d be at best holding but more likely to sell. The talent is still there - all of his pitches are registering a Stuff+ of 100 or better. His command and control needs some work, with his Location+ at 96 as of writing. At the moment, Jobe is more of a thrower than a pitcher, and from the quotes I’ve seen, there likely has to be some level of maturing that takes place before he becomes the latter. If Jobe had lit the baseball world on fire leading into this arm issue, or even just not having any health issues, I’d have no qualms keeping him in Tier 1 where I had him in Series 1. With the injury plus the inconsistent results, I’m knocking him down into Tier 2 and shedding a tear. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Jace Jung (3B, 25)
2025 Topps Update Series: Back in my 2025 Topps Series 1 write-up, I ranked Jung in Tier 3 and basically said to avoid his cards altogether. The Tigers somewhat did the same, as they had Jung logging the majority of his reps at Triple-A in 2025. A short window in late April/early May did not produce any positive results as Detroit was trying to find a bench option better than Ryan Kreidler. Jung did get a few more games at the end of the year when Colt Keith went down, but it was basically a full season spent at Triple-A for Jung where we got the typical Jace Jung results. He hit .253 with 17 home runs and 4 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 123 and split time equally between third base and second base. With one-year roadblock Gleyber Torres back on the free agent wire, you might think Jung gets another look in 2026 to claim an infield spot. However, top prospect Kevin McGonigle is the odds on favorite to occupy that opening unless things go totally sideways. There are positives with Jung - he takes a lot of walks (16% in Triple-A) and when he hits the ball, he hits it hard (12% barrel, 49% hard hit, above average to plus exit velos). The question is how much contact he can make - a 77% zone contact rate at Triple-A in 2025 isn’t what we want to see. Some of that is probably attributable to his low swing rate, which does lead to walks, but leaves him swinging at pitcher’s pitches rather than hitter’s pitches as he’s more susceptible to falling behind in the count. If you’re looking at the positive side of the story, you hope Jung is sort of a poor man’s version of Max Muncy. On the negative side, he ends up not making enough contact at the MLB level to get to his power, leaving him as more org depth on a first division team because his defense isn’t good enough to keep him on the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised to find Jung landing in a second division team’s starting lineup in the next few years where he actually does end up having some relevancy. Not much has changed from February in Jung’s profile, but I’m even more out since he wasn’t given an opportunity to show much at the MLB level, and he’s got a much better player coming to take what we thought might be his MLB roster spot moving forward.
2025 Topps Series 1:
The name recognition, even if his older brother Josh hasn't been healthy enough to consistently put up results in Texas, is something to consider from a Hobby perspective. Just like his brother, he also has first round draft pedigree (12th overall in 2022). There is Tier 2 upside, partially because of those factors, but that potential seems less and less likely as time goes on. Part of that is the defensive liabilities - he’s best suited for second base long term, but even there, he’s likely to be a subpar defender. So the hit and power tools are going to have to carry him to an everyday role (he’s not a base stealer, so that’s out of the equation). At times, it looks like both could end up in plus territory, and at others, it looks average. He can take a walk, and that is one of the main consistently positive results of his patient plate approach. He’s never had a walk rate below 11%, and often sits in the mid-teens. His swing is primarily geared towards his pull-side power, and that will lead to more than his fair share of swing and miss. This is a bit of a conundrum and I don’t really know where to rank Jung, because I see the Tier None downside of a bench bat that can’t be trusted defensively as well as a Tier 2 upside hit and power bat that can be hidden at second base. I’ll split the difference and rank him in Tier 3, and I would take the cue of my uncertainty and just avoid his cards altogether. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Chase Lee (P, 27)
Lee is a side-arming right handed middle reliever that the Tigers received, along with Joseph Montalvo, for Andrew Chafin at the 2024 Trade Deadline. His sweeper from that arm angle is a nasty look. He pairs that with a four seamer and sinker around 89 mph. Against lefties, he’ll sneak in a show-me change-up. This is a one-trick pony, especially with the low-end velocity. From a real baseball perspective, that works here and there, especially on second division rosters. From a Hobby perspective, this is a Tier None ranking all day long with no real shot at more. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Tyler Owens (P, 24)
Owens is a low-leverage reliever that’s been traded twice and passed through waivers unclaimed that has not yet reached the age of 25. He’s working with a 95 mph four seamer, cutter, slider, and an occasional split finger. A low K rate and a high walk rate plagued Owens this season, most of which was spent at Triple-A before a hip injury in late July essentially ended his season. Still young enough to think that maybe there’s some time left for Owens to right the ship and be a regular contributor in an MLB bullpen. The likelihood that ends up as high leverage innings and drives even a trickle of Hobby interest though is very small. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Bryan Sammons (P, 30)
A back-end starter type that was an 8th round pick of the Twins back in 2017. After being cut loose by Minnesota after spending all of 2022 in Double-A, Sammons was unable to stick with the Astros out of Spring Training in 2023. He headed to Indy ball for a short stint before Detroit threw him a lifeline and Sammons grinded another season in the minors before getting his MLB debut in July of 2024. After the 2024 season, the Tigers waived Sammons, but he found another taker in the Chiba Lotte Marines. While not a one for one replacement for Roki Sasaki, Sammons did end up pitching 120 innings and going 9-6. Sammons lower velocity has a better chance at survival in the NPB, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets some more run over there. But from a Hobby perspective, unless you’re a Marines fan, this is another pitcher in the product that is no longer in the MLB and not worth your Hobby dollar. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Bailey Horn (P, 27)
Horn is a low leverage lefty reliever that’s been through five organizations in some form or another since he was drafted by the Cubs in 2020. Besides the Cubs, he’s been with the White Sox (twice), the Red Sox (MLB debut), the Cardinals, and the Tigers (twice). I might even be missing one for all I know. Decent velo from an over the top left handed delivery with a 95 mph four seamer that he pairs primarily with a sweeper. Depending which side the hitter is on, he either throw a sinker (lefties) or a cutter (righties) as his third pitch. There’s very little of interest here from a real baseball, fantasy baseball, or collecting baseball cards perspective. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Ryan Miller (P, 29)
Miller is quite the journeyman. Since being drafted in 2018 by the Diamondbacks, he’s been through the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers orgs with two intermediate stops in Indy ball plus back to back years of being drafted in the minor league Rule V proceedings. The Tigers cut Miller loose in early August from their Triple- Affiliate and he’s currently listed as a free agent. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a Spring Training invite in 2026 or ends up heading back to Indy ball. He works with a 93 mph four seamer paired with a slider and a sweeper. He succeeds when he limits the walks and gets groundballs. He’ll still get the strikeouts, but it’s not big whiff stuff. Miller debuted with the Angels in 2024, didn’t get out of Triple-A in 2025, and it’s probably a coin flip if he hooks on with a major league team moving forward. All that equals zero Hobby interest and a Tier None ranking. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
HOU
Tier 2
Cam Smith (OF, 22)
2025 Topps Update Series:
In my 2025 Topps Series 2 write-up of Cam Smith, I liked the defensive move of Smith to the outfield, but still had concerns about how his offensive approach was being exposed at the MLB level. Those concerns ballooned over the second half of the season and if it wasn’t for the strong defense he was playing in right field, I wouldn’t have been surprised to have seen him sent back to Triple-A for an offensive approach reset. He especially struggled against sliders and teams knew it - the second most frequent pitch he saw was the slider, and he hit a paltry .134 against it. Looking at his final line for the season with 134 games played, Smith hit .236/.312/.358 with 9 home runs and 8 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 90. The K rate was at 28% and the walk rate was 9%. There’s plenty more stats to make the glass half empty argument. On the positive side, he had 95th percentile sprint speed and 84th percentile bat speed. That glimmer of hope does point to the power/speed right fielder with a cannon arm. Is he still Tier 2-worthy? Or does the highly disappointing second half of the season deserve a drop into Tier 3? I’m going to keep him in Tier 2, although Tier 3 was definitely tempting. And that’s because Smith is 22 years old who’s had all of 32 games in the minor leagues before ending up with a full time job at the MLB level. Only 5 of those games were in Double-A and he’s not spent one day in Triple-A. So Smith is basically learning on the job, and that can be a rocky road. I would be in on Smith long term if his cards are cheap enough, but I’m not very bullish on the short term return as he’s still got plenty of flaws to fix.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
Acquired by the Astros in a bit of a shocking move this off-season as part of the return for one of the best and consistently not-talked about Kyle Tucker, Smith was the Cubs 1st round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and by the beginning of the 2025 season, was on Houston’s Opening Day roster. I think if anyone had either of those scenarios - Smith being part of a trade for Kyle Tucker and Smith making an MLB Opening Day roster in 2025 - they should be guessing lottery numbers. I did a deep dive on Smith for 2024 Bowman Draft and came away impressed, even if I had some minor concerns. Those concerns were two-fold - defensively, I didn’t think he was going to be more than adequate at third base. The arm was more than plenty to play at the hot corner, but the instincts for the position didn’t seem as natural as I thought they could be for someone as athletic as Smith. My second concern was in the box - while the power was evident, he looked just a bit stiff. I didn’t see him handling advanced breakers well, especially breaking down and away from him. Those two concerns kept me from pushing Smith all the way up to Tier 1 in Bowman Draft. Fast forward to now and the Astros solved one of those two problems by sending Smith to right field full time. I like that move a lot because Smith’s arm will be an asset out there, and his athleticism will play better and better as he learns the position. Indeed, just over two months into the season Smith has a 7 DRS and a 4 OAA rating. That’s impressive and cements this as a permanent move in my opinion. Offensively, my concerns have not been alleviated. He’s hitting .103 against sliders, .125 against curveballs, and .200 against sweepers. His top line results are perfectly average, hitting .246 with 3 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and a 100 wRC+. The strikeout and whiff rates are higher than I want to see them, both just over 29%. The power potential is there as his bat speed is in the 91st percentile, so there is something to hang your hat on power-wise. Offensively, Smith is still a work in progress, and I’m comfortable keeping him in Tier 2 until we see if he can take the next step. The Ceiling is pretty big as a power-speed monster that will be hitting taters into the Crawford Boxes for the next 5 years at a minimum. He should be able to hit 30 home runs with 40 not out of the question if he does take that next step - it’s quite a big step though. I’m definitely willing to bargain hunt Smith’s cards - I just doubt we see many bargains until his rookie card supply gets quite a bit higher than they will be on Series 2 release day. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier 3
AJ Blubaugh (P, 25)
A 7th round pick in the 2022 draft, the Astros have again turned a small investment into a useful MLB option. Blubaugh may never be more than a back-end SP, but if he can keep the walk rate under 10%, and better yet, under the 7%-8% range, he’s got enough stuff to be a regular rotation option for Houston. His arsenal is mainly a 94 mph four seamer, a big time sweeper with over 15 inches of horizontal break, and a fading change-up. Against righties, it’s more of a sweeper approach while lefties see more of the change-up. He’s also got a curveball and a cutter in the toolbox, but they've been seldom used pitches at the MLB level so far. A 28% K rate, 30% whiff and chase rates, and a .190 xBA all are great indicators of potentially jumping into mid-rotation starter territory. This does come with a note of caution as it was only 32 innings and Blubaugh only had three starts out of the eleven MLB appearances in his 2025 debut season. I wouldn’t focus too hard on his Triple-A numbers - he was roughed up in the hitter-friendly PCL parks like Salt Lake City, Reno, El Paso, and Albuquerque. I’m not really going to recommend going ham on Blubaugh’s cards, but if I did somehow end up with a few good ones, I might consider holding and seeing how he develops. In Houston, there’s always some inherent upside with future dev gains and successful team context. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Colton Gordon (P, 26)
An 8th round pick of the Astros in 2021, Gordon is a lefty command and control back-end SP. The fastball is at the lower end of the velocity band, sitting 91 mph, which doesn’t get much swing and miss, but lives near the zone quite a bit. He uses that to set up his secondaries, primarily a sweeper, but he’ll also throw a curve, sinker, and change-up. Besides the sweeper, the other secondaries actually produced better results in his debut MLB season, but that’s more because they were change of pace pitches that lived in the 8%-10% usage band. The K rate is underwhelming, he’s got one MLB-level pitch with the sweeper, and the velocity is always going to put him on the back foot against MLB hitters. As a lefty, he may continue to get some more MLB opportunities than he probably should. For the Hobby, I don’t see a reason to give him any opportunities. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Bryan King (P, 29)
A 30th round pick of the Cubs in 2019, the Astros nabbed King in the 2022 minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft before undergoing TJ that put him on the shelf for all of 2023. King was ready for his debut in June of 2024, and has worked his way into an essential piece of the Astros pen. A two pitch arsenal from the left side (four seamer/sweeper), King limits the walks and hard contact, leading to a high amount of success. In 68 innings in 2025, King had a 25% K rate with a miniscule 4% walk rate, ending up with a sub-3 ERA. His command was truly his calling card, and if he can continue to do that, he’s going to continue to be put into high leverage situations. That only resulted in two saves in 2025, and that probably doesn’t change much in 2026 with Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu ahead of him in the pecking order. For real baseball and even fantasy baseball where Holds matter, King’s value is surprisingly sneaky. In the Hobby, however, it’s just not going to be that high while he remains the third option at best out of the bullpen. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Ryan Gusto (RHP, 26)
Another deeper draft pick (11th round 2019) that the Astros turned into an attractive MLB pitcher, and then flipped as part of a trade deadline package. In this case, Gusto was sent to the Marlins at this most recent deadline when Houston acquired Jesús Sánchez. He was split between the pen and the rotation for the majority of his time in Houston’s org. At his best, he looks like a backend rotation piece that can eat innings with a diverse arsenal. He can play the up and down vertical game with his four seamer, sinker, change-up, and curve-ball or play the horizontal game with his cutter and sweeper. The primary challenge for Gusto is left-handed hitters. They hit .321/.391/.580 against him with 14 of the 17 home runs he gave up in 2025. He walked over twice as many lefties as he did righties. He doesn’t have an answer for them yet, and until he does, Gusto’s future path could end up in the pen rather than the rotation. That in and of itself suggests a Tier None ranking, and then getting a rookie card in a uniform he no longer wears makes it an even more obvious rank. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Logan VanWey (P, 26)
Pronounced Van Why, VanWey is an undrafted free agent in 2022 coming out of Missouri Southern. Leave it to the Astros pitching lab to turn an UDFA into an MLB viable pitcher. That’s a reliever, so it’s not like they turned coal into a diamond, but it’s still impressive what this org consistently is able to do in developing pitchers. He comes from a side-arm angle that allows his pitches to play better horizontally, starting with a four seamer around 92-93 and a sweeper throws mostly against same side hitters (righties). Against lefties, he’s more apt to use his tailing change-up which moves away from them towards the arm-side. While he was able to put up impressive K numbers in the minors, his small sample size at the MLB level was decidedly lacking in much positive beyond limiting the walks. It’s probably a mixture of small sample size on the positive side and MLB hitters just being so much more difficult to fool on the negative side. The arm angle and horizontal approach make VanWey a tough look, especially for righties, and that should give him a decently long shelf life as a middle reliever, maybe even some setup stuff on occasion. But never even sniffing a starting role since he’s been drafted by the Astros leaves little Hobby intrigue and slots him into Tier None. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Luis Contreras (P, 28)
Contreras is a lower velocity bullpen arm that has struggled with command and lost some of his strikeout effectiveness against MLB hitters. In the minors, he gets plenty of high leverage opportunities, but at the MLB level, a 91 mph fastball as the primary offering is rarely going to lead to similar situations. He pairs his fastball with a sweepy slider and a change-up. Contreras wins by limiting hard contact and barrels, but with that arsenal, I’d like to see a lot more ground balls than he gets today. I’d also like to see him be able to get lefties out to lock in a regular MLB job. Until then, this profile looks like a churn and burn middle reliever that can get righties out, but not lefties. And that is not something we’re interested in from the Hobby perspective. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
KCR
Tier None
Evan Sisk (P, 28)
The left handed Sisk debuted in 2025 as a reliever for the Royals, pitching to a 1.69 ERA in 5 appearances (5.1 IP) with 11 strikeouts before moving to the Pirates organization, where he remains, and struggled a bit there. He had a 4.38 ERA in 14 appearances (12.1 IP), and the strikeout numbers came back to Earth a bit, with a still strong 14 in 12.1 IP. He had a fine 4.38 ERA in relief in AAA in 2025, and should see some more chances in a weak Pirates bullpen in 2026. He’s not a serious name for the Hobby, but if he can turn into a reliable lefty in the pen for the Buccos with strikeout potential, he will turn into a valuable real world piece. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
John Rave (OF, 27)
One of my contenders for best name in the release, Rave was unable to get the party started in his debut for the Royals as a 27 year old rookie in 2025. The lefty outfielder posted a .590 OPS in 153 at bats with 4 homers and 7 steals, good for a 66 OPS+. The strikeouts were a bit high, and he didn’t really do much to stand out as an older rookie. Rave did post an .888 OPS in 60 games at AAA Omaha, with 11 homers and 19 steals in just 235 at bats, so there is definitely a tool kit to work with here. Given his advanced age, the clock is not on Rave’s side, but he probably did enough to earn another chance with the big club in 2026. He’s an above average defender in the outfield, and came in at 88th percentile for sprint speed per Savant. Rave could grow into a good 4th outfielder or even a fine 3rd outfielder for the Royals, but his age does limit the runway a bit. He’s a Tier None guy for now, but let’s see how he does in 2026. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Noah Murdock (P, 27)
Murdock, now a 27 year old free agent, stands at 6’ 8” 190 pounds- certainly an intimidating presence on the mound. Unfortunately intimidation can only do so much- Murdock pitched in 14 games for the Athletics this year (17 IP) and posted a 13.24 ERA with a 2.706 WHIP- good for a -1.4 bWAR. Murdock was drafted by the Royals out of UVA in 2019 but never appeared for the Royals before moving to the A’s as a rule 5 draftee, and the former Cavalier did strike out 21 in his 17 innings with the A’s. He also walked 20, but I did want to try to find a positive in the stat line. Funny enough, he gave up 25 earned runs in 17 innings without allowing a long ball, even at the A’s launching pad, which is impressive. Obviously the walks are a major issue, and help pour gasoline on any fire in relief. He was returned to the KC organization in May after a string of meltdowns, and remains in the Royals organization now. He also had a 6.00 ERA in 21 innings at AAA Omaha with the Royals to finish the 2025 campaign, so it was just an all around year to forget for Murdock. He did post a 3.16 ERA split between AA and AAA in 2024, but was still walking a crazy amount of guys. Unfortunately, that year is probably the outlier for Murdock at this point. The gigantic sinker-baller will probably get picked up this Winter given his potential for strikeouts, but if 2026 resembles 2025, it’ll be getting early quick for Murdock. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Tyler Tolbert (SS, 27)
Tolbert, a younger iteration/clone of Terrance Gore, has an awesome stat line from his big league debut with the Royals in 2025. Tolbert swiped 21 bags for the Royals, was caught only twice, and received 50 at bats in total. Essentially a super-pinch runner, Tolbert inarguably excelled in his role, but he was pretty good when he got the chance to swing the bat too. He went 14-50 (.280) with a homer and a pair of doubles, coming out to a .701 OPS and 96 OPS+. Now it is fair to believe that Tolbert’s at bats were probably pretty hand picked based on the situation, it is also true that if he could be a .701 OPS guy in an increased role, the Royals would have a monster of a table setter on their hands. The 27 year old speedster stole 48 bags in the Minors in 2024, and 50 in 2023- the speed and stolen base ability is clearly legitimate. He posted a .755 OPS in AA in 2023 before struggling to a .646 between AA and AAA in 2024, but in 29 games in AAA this past season he had a much more tidy .747 OPS before posting a .701 for the Royals. Almost certain to be a role player, he is excellent at what he does, and should be able to spend a good bit of time in the bigs as long as the bat can remain passable or better and he can continue stealing nearly at will. The UAB alum is a Tier None guy, but man am I close to putting him in Tier Three because of how fun the profile is. I’m just not sure he ever gets a serious run as an every day player, therefore I have to keep him in Tier None. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
LAA
Tier 3
Caden Dana (P, 21)
2025 Topps Update Series:
The Angels did the thing again, where they brought Dana up in September and he again got roughed up by MLB hitters. At his best, like he was in August against the Reno Aces (Diamondbacks affiliate) in Triple-A, he can go deep into a game with big time strikeout stuff, in this case 13. At his worst, he’s getting his stuff in the zone lit up and its loud contact - in four of his five MLB starts in September, he gave up at least one home run. His final outing of the season was a five run, three home run drubbing by the Astros, even if he was able to go seven full innings. As I alluded to in my Series 2 write-up, it’s hard not to be out on Dana for the Hobby. A bad team that has continued to bungle pitching development coupled with uninspiring and inconsistent results from Dana. The talent is there to be a workhorse mid-rotation starter with strikeout upside. And that will keep him in Tier 3, where I’ve had him all year. But it’s pretty clearly a sell until further notice type of situation, regardless of the ranking.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Do the Angels really hate their minor leagues? Judging by the money they invest in them, or not invest in them, the answer is yes. I ask this question here because they pushed Caden Dana at just 20 years old all the way to the Majors last year. Now, having him skip Triple-A isn’t as crazy as it seems on the surface, as you don’t really need to subject your prized pitching prospects to the PCL. But they could just as easily have kept him in Double-A in September or shut him down early rather than having him get his face smashed in by MLB hitters. Dana has SP3 upside, which could push him into Tier 2 consideration, but he’s got just a bit more work to do before I would fully buy into it. Taking a third pitch to above average or plus would help a lot - at the moment he is a two pitch guy (fastball/slider) with various other offerings that need to take the next step. This arsenal concern and the Angels doing whatever the Angels are doing caps him for the moment in Tier 3 even with the tantalizing upside.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
The Angels have Dana pitching in Triple-A because they are a poorly run organization? I guess you could argue he has nothing left to prove in Double-A, and he’s going to the PCL school of hard knocks. To say he’s getting knocked around would be an understatement. Not to mention he’s had two MLB appearances in 2025, strangely in mop-up duty, and those weren’t great either. I don’t get it. I was hoping to be able to push Dana into Tier 2 with this revisit, but it’s not great, Bob. There’s some people that will be completely out on Dana, and I can’t fault them if they are purely looking at his 2025 results. He’s still just 21, and even if I don’t believe in the org, I still believe in the talent, enough to keep him in Tier 3. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Jose Fermin (P, 23)
Not the Cardinals utility player José Fermín, but the Angels bullpen arm José Fermin. To be honest, even though I do catch more than my fair share of Angels games, I had completely forgotten about this version of Fermin. Debuting at the end of April, Fermin had a couple of trips back and forth between Anaheim and Salt Lake City with a minor elbow injury early in the year to add to the inconsistent reps. A four seamer/slider pitcher that throws each pitch in equal weight with each pitch being pretty nasty. The fastball in particular, when he locates it on the edges of the zone, works extremely well in the 96 - 98 mph range with above average to plus movement. The problem, as usual with high octane relievers, is location. Either putting his pitches in the hitters’ happy zones, or missing the zone and issuing way too many walks (15% walk rate in 34 MLB innings in 2025). Another middle reliever that could easily end up in high leverage if he can cut the walks down significantly. At just 23 years old, that’s something I could see happening, but I’d not hold my breath. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Ryan Johnson (P, 23)
I’m all for MLB teams putting their prospects to the test, promoting them through the levels as soon as possible. Human beings only have so much longevity with athletic pursuits before the aging curve, not to mention physical breakdowns, impact their effectiveness. The Angels regularly make me question my opinion on that matter. Not to mention my sanity, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about. When Ryan Johnson asked at what level of the minor leagues he was going to start his professional career, the Angels said, “Minor leagues? Never heard of them!” After not pitching at all after being taken in the Comp Round C (74th overall) in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Angels brought Johnson to Spring Training where he proceeded to earn an Opening Day roster spot in the bullpen. It did not go as planned - shocking, I know. It’s hard to pinpoint what went wrong, but it seems like it was a combination of small sample size, bad BABIP luck and his sinker not being good enough. He’s primarily a cutter, sweeper, sinker pitcher, and all three pitches show quite a bit of movement to them. After the failed MLB experiment, Johnson was sent down to High-A, where he absolutely shredded the league. That includes his final start on July 5th - a one hit, complete game shutout with 12 K’s in hitter-friendly Spokane. I could not find an IL stint, but Johnson didn’t pitch again after that outside of two other outings in late August of just one inning and two innings. My best guess is that it was an innings limit scenario. Is there an SP3 Ceiling here with Johnson - absolutely. Is there a high leverage reliever floor here with Johnson - absolutely. Can we trust the Angels to develop Johnson properly - absolutely not. If this was a Dodgers, Guardians, Marlins, or any other number of top pitching dev orgs, Johnson would easily be in Tier 3. With the Angels and this inexplicable 2025 approach, Johnson sinks into Tier None with definite upside. Someone I definitely have on my watchlist for his 2026 minor league games (assuming the Angels don’t again think he should start the year in Anaheim). - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Garrett McDaniels (P, 25)
A lefty reliever that the Angels picked up in the Rule V draft this past off-season, but eventually moved on from him and sent him back to the Dodgers in June after working back from a biceps injury in May. He was completely off the radar after being drafted in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, but a switch to the pen when he returned on a full, healthy season with strong results in 2024 in the minors led to the Angels giving him a shot. It’s a bit surprising that they cut him loose because second division teams like the Angels should absolutely as a general default keep all of the Rule V picks as a cheap pipeline to acquire talent. Especially an org like the Angels who’ve not been able to consistently develop talent from within. A sinker slider approach that delivers a ton of groundball contact, McDaniels is a useful second lefty in the pen in the future, but there’s unlikely to be more upside than that, so we can safely ignore him for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Michael Darrell-Hicks (P, 27)
A sinker, slider/sweeper, and cutter middle relief pitcher with average-ish velocity, Darrell-Hicks got some run with the Angels to start the season before being waived in early June to make space on the 40-man roster for LaMonte Wade. The Pirates picked him up and after a few innings of MLB work, optioned him to Triple-A for the remainder of the season. Is there anything else of interest to say here, I ask myself? Nope - not even a future high leverage role seems in the cards without some material change in the profile. This is the typical reliever scenario that we can easily ignore for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Matthew Lugo (OF, 24)
Acquired at the trade 2024 trade deadline from the Red Sox as part of the package for reliever Luis Garcia, the former 2nd round draft pick of Boston in 2019 had his MLB debut in early May of 2025 for the Angels. And he was on an absolute heater out of the gate, hitting three home runs in eight games with a triple slash of .381/.409/1.000. As you can imagine, that small sample rocket-ship crashed back to earth, and Lugo was on the bus back to Salt Lake before the month was over. He rode that same bus back and forth throughout the season as injuries on the MLB roster opened up spots for him on occasion, but ended up finishing the year in Triple-A. Lugo is a typical corner outfield profile with above average power and speed and a below average to fringe hit tool. Occasional lapses on the defensive end further complicate earning a full time role at the MLB level. There’s definitely a chance that Lugo catches lightning in the bottle for a short period of time and puts together a 20/20 season for a second division team at some point in the future. The contact and swing rates make that outcome a pretty tall order (zone contact rate in the 20th percentile, whiff rate in the 24th percentile, and outside the zone swing rate in the 12th percentile in Triple-A in 2025). If there are still Lugo believers out there, and there have been from time to time during his prospect years, I’d happily sell into those opportunities. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Ryan Zeferjahn (P, 27)
Along with fellow 2025 Update rookie Matthew Lugo, Zeferjahn was part of the Angels return for reliever Luis Garcia at the 2024 trade deadline. Originally drafted in the third round by the Red Sox in 2019 as a starting pitcher, Zeferjahn was essentially moved to the pen full time in 2022. Within a month of being traded to the Angels in 2024, he was called up and has stuck in the Angels bullpen ever since. Like many bullpen arms, he’s got the stuff but is lacking on the location. A three pitch arsenal with a cutter, four-seamer, and slider/sweeper that diverges and converges at times, the Stuff+ numbers are up there with a combined 121. The Location+, not so much, at just 83. And those data points are backed up by the results, with a strong 28% K rate but a bad 14% walk rate. Zeferjahn could be a high leverage at some point in the future, but until he stops giving up free passes, that won’t happen with any regularity. An easy pass for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
LAD
Tier 2
Roki Sasaki (P, 24)
2025 Topps Update Series:
Sasaki’s first year in the MLB did not go as planned. A shoulder injury and then a move to the bullpen was not what we were all thinking when the Dodgers signed him from Japan this past off-season. He did recover well, becoming a semi-reliable weapon out of the bullpen even if his last appearance, in game 6 of the World Series, did end with two runners on base and nobody out in the bottom of the ninth inning after an eighth inning where he escaped with no runs given up. Tyler Glasnow came in and thanks to a baserunning mistake and strong defense from Kiké Hernandez, the Dodgers escaped with the 3-1 victory. That at least let us leave the season without a terrible taste in our mouth for Roki’s 2025. There was talk of how the Dodgers did figure out some of Roki’s issues during his shoulder rehab - overlaying his pitching motion from prior to his shoulder troubles to after they began and seeing the differences. I’m not saying Roki is fixed, but I do have a bit more hope, and a bit more comfort in maintaining my Tier 2 ranking that I had for him in 2025 Topps Series 2. It’s a very uncertain ranking because it essentially assumes that Roki will be back in the rotation and that he is at least somewhat back to normal. If he ends up unable to stick in the rotation and instead transitions to the Dodgers closer role, there’s still some value to be had there, but it’s Tier 3 value rather than Tier 2 or better value. This is a high risk, high reward scenario. If I could get more Roki rookie cards for cheap, I’d definitely do it. But I also wouldn’t empty the clip either. There’s enough yellow to red flags that it’s probably worth spending your Hobby dollars elsewhere. But it is still very tempting given Roki’s youth, potential, International appeal, and highly collectable team.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
The biggest International Free Agent signing this past off-season, Sasaki has some of the best raw pitching talent, but as we’ve seen from the results so far, he’s far from a finished product. The extension on his pitches is in the 93rd percentile, and his splitter has the potential to be elite. The four seam fastball, on the other hand, has good velo at 96 mph for an MLB pitcher, but he was in triple digits at the height of the mania a few seasons ago. In addition, at least as it was measured in his MLB outings, the fastball had bad characteristics. A 9th percentile spin rate is not good, and I regularly hear Eno Sarris giving it the dreaded dead zone label. Stuff+ has it at a 78, so models are not a fan of it either. His third pitch is an 82 mph slider which the models also don’t like, grading out at 90 with Stuff+. The obvious first place for adjustment that you’ll see mentioned everywhere is a second fastball - a sinker or a cutter. That would help to lessen the reliance on the bad four seamer. It’s tough to add a new pitch in-season, but Sasaki could take advantage of his impending rehab work to do so. And that leads into the second topic of discussion - Sasaki already had some medical questions with a shoulder issue last season in the NPB (along with an oblique issue). A shoulder impingement has led to a month on the shelf so far - seeing this same problem in back to back seasons is slightly worrying. Having one elite pitch (splitter), one so-so pitch (slider), and one bad pitch (fastball) plus back to back seasons of shoulder issues has me knocking Sasaki down a Tier, and I will be the first to admit I did not see that coming heading into this season. Roki, along with the three short print rookies, were the hardest rookies for me to rank by far. As much as I think Roki has Tier 1 talent, it’s hard to argue with the results and context surrounding the current profile. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Dalton Rushing (C, 24)
Dalton Rushing is too good for the minor leagues. Dalton Rushing is not yet good enough to be an everyday starter in the major leagues. And without a lengthy Will Smith injury, I’m not sure Rushing gets enough reps at the MLB level to translate his minor league results into major league results, at least not any time soon. The catcher position is difficult - watching interviews with Rushing and seeing him talk about how much focus he puts on working with the pitchers and knowing the lineups they are facing and working on fundamentals and everything else that isn’t “hold bat, see ball, swing bat, hit ball far”. And Rushing can hit the ball far, as evidenced by his 26 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024. Debuting in mid-May, Rushing was essentially on the MLB roster from that point forward with the exception of a week in September at Triple-A while he was rehabbing from a shin injury. In all that time, he was only able to log 53 games and 155 plate appearances. In that small sample, the offense never got going. A .234 batting average with a 37% K rate and a sub-7% walk rate led to a 62 wRC+. It’s therefore no mystery why the Dodgers preferred to have Ben Rortvedt as their backup catcher during the playoffs rather than Rushing. All that being said, I’m still a believer in Rushing’s talent, and that somehow, some way, it will end up shining through. I wouldn’t even be opposed to comping Rushing to his battery mate Will Smith with a touch more power than Smith. That’s at least a Tier 3 floor, and depending on the context, a Tier 2 Ceiling. It’s another borderline decision as his results and position penalty lean me towards Tier 3 but I’m a Rushing fan. He’s got Hobby-friendly power, and he’s on a very collectable team. Maybe it takes a trade to unlock his value in the short term, maybe an injury to Will Smith. But those are hard things to bank on, so I wouldn’t spend a lot on his cards, but I’d definitely consider holding anything that I ended up with. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Jack Dreyer (P, 26)
A relatively reliable middle reliever in the Dodgers bullpen in 2025, Dreyer was an undrafted free agent signing of the Dodgers out of the University of Iowa in 2021. To turn that into a rookie that gives you 67 quality innings of sub-3 ERA on a World Series Champion is just another example of many that shows you why the Dodgers are better than everyone else. Sure, they have the money and spend the money, but they also do things like this. Dreyer’s got a typical reliever arsenal split between a four seamer at 92 mph and a slider at 88 mph. He throws a curveball 8% of the time as a change of pace but doesn’t provide much positive value other than that. Dreyer succeeds by limiting hard contact and living around the edges of the zone. His arsenal isn’t a high strikeout, lots of whiffs profile. That limits his upside to the role he’s currently in as a middle reliever. I don’t see a move to a closer role in the future. A great story for Dreyer and a great job by the Dodgers on unearthing him, but it’s still a Tier None ranking for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Hyeseong Kim (2B, 26)
2025 Topps Update Series:
Whenever I watched Kim play, he was a super pesky type of hitter. And similarly on the basepaths - he was always looking to run and put pressure on the defense. I watched a lot of Dodgers games this year, and so it’s a bit surprising to check his final season statline and see a strikeout rate over 30% and a walk rate under 5%. He was still able to end up with a heavily BABIP-fueled .280 batting average, so the hit tool concerns might be a bit hidden to some. When looking at more of the underlying data, it simply re-enforces the hit tool issues. 7th percentile barrel rate, 5th percentile hard hit rate, 15th percentile zone contact rate, and bottom of the barrel power metrics as well. I had Kim in Tier 3 in my 2025 Topps Series 2 rankings, but I think at this point, I was too high on him. It took Ha-Seong Kim around three years to get acclimated to the MLB, and frankly he was a better player to begin with. The same pattern of results probably happens with Hyeseong Kim, and at the end of the day, it may just turn into league average value. I’m not sure that gets anywhere close to full playing time on a team like the Dodgers, so I’m moving to the other side of the decision tree with Kim’s cards and selling them before they really tail off into Tier None prices (if they already aren’t there).
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
Entering Spring Training, the decks seemed clear for Hyeseong Kim to take over the second base job for the Dodgers after they traded Gavin Lux to the Reds for Mike Sirota and a Comp-A pick in the upcoming draft. Seriously, why does anyone trade with the Dodgers. Anyways, Kim was a speed and hit middle infielder that Los Angeles signed from the KBO in the off-season as an International Free Agent. However, he did not look ready offensively during Spring Training, and ended up spending all of March, April and the beginning of May in Triple-A before being called up for his MLB debut on May 3rd. He’s been on a BABIP and Ohtani-fueled heater ever since he came up. As of writing, his BABIP is sitting at .511, and he primarily hits in the 9th spot in the batting order, right in front of Shohei Ohtani who always hits at the top of the order. Pitchers are not going to want to put Kim on base ahead of Ohtani, so Kim gets plenty of pitches he can hit. That BABIP and lineup protection is driving his .410 batting average and 193 wRC+. His speed and his ability to put the bat on the ball help, but those numbers are nowhere near sustainable. His batting average should continue to be a plus, and he is fast and ready to steal bases at any opportunity with 6 in just 27 games. He’s also being platooned a fair bit, which caps his Ceiling. An additional positive from the Hobby perspective is that International appeal as well as team collectibility. I wouldn’t be shocked if there are times when his cards are selling like other cards in Tier 2. I wouldn’t put him at that level, as I don’t think there’s much All-Star upside here. He’s a really good strong side platoon up the middle defender that I have no qualms ranking as a Tier 3 player due to the added context, and would be happy to buy on the cheap, but wouldn’t spend big because the upside is likely limited. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
MIA
Tier 2
Agustín Ramírez (C, 24)
The centerpiece of the Marlins return for Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the 2024 trade deadline, Ramírez is an offense over defense catcher that probably should get full time reps as a 1B/DH. There’s very little to be excited about with his defensive work behind the plate. In his debut season, he registered a -14 DRS with particularly bad returns on his blocking and throwing out runners. Miami is not a competitive organization at the moment, so I could see them trying to continue the experiment of Ramírez behind the dish for another season or two, but it’s not going to work. The sooner they push him to 1B/DH full time, the better. And his bat will easily play there. There are some issues, but in general you’re getting a potential 30 home run bat that will keep the strikeouts down. He may only give you league average batting average and OBP, but the slugging will be what keeps him relevant. His free-swinging approach will limit his walk rate, and it will lead to bad contact. But he can clobber the ball - a 90th percentile ev and a Max ev both in the 95th percentile in the big leagues is what we’re here to see. Strong hard hit rates, barrel rates, and zone contact rates all keep the power foundation strong. In his first MLB season, the triple slash was meh, but he hit 21 home runs and stole a surprising 16 bases. From a Hobby perspective, it’s a borderline Tier 2 and Tier 3 profile. The glass half empty is that he won’t tone down the aggressiveness and could end up drifting toward the Mendoza line with his batting average while playing for an organization that continues to field losing teams. We don’t often think about it, but playing for perpetual losing teams can negatively impact a player’s morale and output. The glass half full is that he will hit 30 home runs with an acceptable batting average while stealing double digit bases and be a regular All-Star representative for a team thin on those types of options. In the short term, he’s a Tier 2 Hobby ranking. In the long term, I’d be concerned enough that I wouldn’t go whole hog on his cards. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Victor Mesa Jr. (OF, 24)
The less heralded Mesa brother turned out to be the one that had the fortitude to grind out the minors and make it to the majors. His brother, Victor Victor, was the splashy signing out of Cuba back in 2018 with a $5M+ bonus while Victor Jr. signed for $1M in what was believed to have been a package deal. Victor Victor walked away from the game after a disagreement with minor league coaches in 2023 and the Marlins were left with the lesser Mesa brother. Victor Jr. is more of an org depth option that can run and play any outfield position. The bat doesn’t really play on an MLB roster as it’s an aggressive approach without a lot of contact and below average power that doesn’t make up for the times he does make contact. Somehow that still keeps the K rate well under the 20% rate, which is a head-scratcher. At just 24 years old, there’s always a shot that something changes towards the positive. If he takes the swing rates down and can bring his contact rates up, that may lead to more of a strong side platoon role on a second division team. All that said, even with some name recognition if you were into prospects back in the late 2010’s, there’s nothing of Hobby interest to see here. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Cade Gibson (P, 27)
Middle reliever that was a former starter and not fully committed to a bullpen role until 2025. A six pitch arsenal, more common with a starter rather than a reliever, works to limit hard contact and generate ground balls. With fastball velocity sitting around 91-92 from the left side, he’s not getting many whiffs or strikeouts. But with a 52% ground ball rate, he was able to make it work in his debut season. In 44 outings with Miami, he was able to put together a stellar 2.63 ERA, picking up some wins and holds in the progress. However, it’s dangerous to use Gibson in a high leverage role because of the amount of contact he gives up, especially in the zone (89%). He profiles best as a second lefty in a pen that go multiple innings as needed. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Patrick Monteverde (P, 28)
Monteverde falls into that bucket of low velocity swingman, org depth starter, multi-inning reliever, command and control artists that second division teams will use to eat innings in the pen or out of the rotation. Monteverde is still being used in both scenarios, but profiles better out of the pen. He made one appearance in the majors for the Marlins in April before being DFA’d and going unclaimed, reverting back to the Marlins Triple-A squad. Spending the remainder of the year there, he split time between the rotation and the pen with the rotation being the more regular option. It is a diverse arsenal where he’ll throw five pitches regularly, but none of them are particularly interesting pitches. The cutter might be the best as he fills up the zone and gets a decent amount of chase with it, but not much whiffs. The slider graded out the best in 2025, but it was again not even an average grade. Another pitcher where we can say congrats, you had an MLB debut, but there’s not much of an interesting MLB future that we can project. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Liam Hicks (C, 26)
A Rule V selection of the Marlins in 2025 out of the Tigers org, Hicks is one of those backup catcher profiles that knows the zone really well because of where he sits on defense. That leads to very low K rates and double digit walk rates which Hicks pairs with extreme passivity, swinging at just 55% of pitches in the zone. This becomes the foundation of his offense - he doesn’t whiff, he doesn’t chase, and when he does occasionally choose to swing, he makes quite a bit of contact (91% zone contact). He won’t hit many home runs nor steal more than a few bases. The power numbers are mostly really poor - exit velocity, bat speed, barrel rate, and hard hit rate ranks are all in the 11th percentile or worse. On the defensive side, while he can frame and block enough to stay behind the dish, his arm is a major weakness. The Marlins, as a second division org looking to keep Hicks on the MLB roster due to his Rule V status, played him a fair bit at 1B and DH as well. But Hicks doesn’t really have the offensive profile to stick there. Ultimately this is a backup catcher that you don’t want to get too many reps and have a team run wild on the basepaths. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Eric Wagaman (1B, 28)
Second division corner option that can sneak in some home runs and chip in a few stolen bases, but never really turns his power data into the expected power. Lacking that power, it’s the blandest of profiles with nothing approaching an above average tool. In 2025, his Average ev was in the 77th percentile, 90th ev was in the 78th percentile, and Max ev in the 84th percentile. Pair that with a hard hit rate in the 66th percentile and a pull air rate in the 52nd percentile, and you’d think Wagaman would be able to hit more than the 9 home runs he did for the Marlins in 140 games in 2025. It’s a confounding profile, and when you get these scenarios and throw up your hands, it’s just best to find another place to spend your Hobby dollars. Speaking of the Hobby, according to the checklist, Wagaman gets the split team scenario. His base rookie cards are with the Marlins while his autographs are with the Angels, who he debuted with back in 2024. I, um, would have assumed Topps could have cleaned this up with the lengthy lead time they had between his Angels playing days and this release, but I guess not. Or maybe the checklist is simply incorrect. I guess we’ll find out on release day. Ultimately, Wagaman needs to double his home run output, which the metrics suggest is possible, to get out of Tier None and into Tier 3. Until we see it happen, there’s no reason to push him to the higher ranking. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Lake Bachar (P, 30)
A middle reliever that the Marlins picked up off of waivers from the Padres in 2024, Bachar has decent stuff and keeps the walks within reason. It’s not great at 10%, but I’ve seen so much worse. He gives up too many fly balls, especially to the pull side, but playing home games in Miami gives him a bit more buffer to do so. A four pitch mix led by a mid-90’s fastball all seem to work reasonably well, but nothing is plus. It’s a bag full of blandness, but it works, and as long as he’s got a home park that protects his flyball tendencies, it should continue to work. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Michael Petersen (P, 31)
The 31 year old reliever is now back for his second stint with Miami and has been through waiver wire or trade for cash considerations with six different teams after signing with the Brewers in 2015 as a 17th round pick. He’s a two pitch fireballer with a four seam fastball at 98 mph and a cutter at 89 mph. Stuff+ is a fan of both pitches, but the cutter doesn’t produce enough positive results to call it a good pitch for Petersen. It’s a bit surprising that Petersen doesn’t get more strikeouts given how the data looks, but neither pitch gets a whiff rate above 25%. The big concern is the lack of ground balls - if you’re throwing the ball that hard and giving up a ton of fly ball and line drive contact, you’re asking for trouble. He’s had less than 40 innings between his 2024 and 2025 MLB appearances, so the small sample size data could be a bit at play here. But with that level of velocity and a palatable walk rate, I think there’s more than meets the eye as to why he doesn’t have a locked-in bullpen role and why he’s in his 6th org. Sometimes you just have to believe what the teams are telling us, and with Petersen, the theory may be better than the reality. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Jonathan Bermudez (P, 30)
A low velocity lefty starter that debuted at 28 years old with the Marlins in 2024 elected free agency after that debut season. Unable to get another MLB deal, Bermúdez headed to the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) to play for the Rakuten Monkeys. He produced ok results there, but it’s not the best level of competition, so it may just be getting towards the end as he’s now on the wrong side of 30. No word on his 2026 prospects at the moment, but I’d be surprised if he ever ends up back in affiliated ball. He is left-handed, so if he does find a velocity bump or some trick pitch, maybe there’s one more chance, but it’s very unlikely. And the same goes for the Hobby interest - very unlikely. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Luarbert Arias (P, 24)
Árias made the Opening Day roster for the Marlins in 2025 and it did not go well. By the end of April he was sent back down to the Minor Leagues and only showed back on the big league squad for a single inning appearance in early September. In just over 10 innings of MLB work, he had an 18% K rate with a 9% walk rate and gave up 13 runs for an ERA of 11.32. He’s a slider and four seamer type with a split finger getting a fair bit of usage against opposite handed (lefty) hitters. He’s looked better at times in the minor leagues, but no matter where he pitched in 2025 - Double-A, Triple-A, or the Majors, it was bad. As he was outrighted multiple times in 2025, the 24 year old reliever had the option to elect free agency at the end of this season, which he has done. He probably gets another shot, either with the Marlins or another second division roster as he’s just 24 and his stuff does hold promise if he can locate it. But he falls into the Tier None reliever bucket like so many others in this checklist. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
MIL
Tier 2
Logan Henderson (RHP, 23)
Henderson was a 4th round pick out of JuCo in Texas by the Brewers in the 2021 draft, and the now 23 year old starter has probably gotten whoever scouted him promoted thanks to an unbelievable debut late in the season for the Brewers. Henderson was solid if unspectacular toiling in AAA for the majority of the season, posting a 3.59 ERA across 16 appearances (77.2 IP) for the affiliate in Nashville, with a 10.1 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9 rate. Henderson earned the call up to the Brewers later in the season, and he was lights out in his 5 starts. In these 5 starts, Henderson threw 25.1 innings to the tune of a 1.78 ERA with a 3-0 record, striking out 33 in his 25.1 innings of work. He kept an identical walk rate to what he posted in AAA (2.8 BB/9), and even though Henderson has succeeded at every level as a pro, it’s fair to think that this was beyond even the most optimistic projections for Henderson in his rookie debut. It’s tough to read too much into Henderson’s Savant page given the smallish sample size, but it’s clear that he paired an elite K rate with a strong ability to limit hard contact and induce chases and whiffs. He throws a 4 seamer 49% of the time, and despite coming in at an average of 92.9 MPH, he’s one of those guys where the spin rate and IVB help him make up some ground against his weaker velocity. I will say that Henderson had just a 22.4% ground ball rate for the Brewers, basically half (44.2%) the Major League average. If that continues, there are obviously some issues. But again, it was such a tiny sample and he was inducing weak contact so I don’t want to rain on the Henderson parade over something that could just be an anomaly in his work. I think Henderson is a candidate for some real regression in 2026, but the baseline we’re working from is so good that he’ll still be a quality pitcher for the Brewers in 2026 and beyond. He’s still just 23 and has plenty of time to work out little nitpicky issues, and I think the Brewers have yet another unheralded pitcher who is going to be a good Major League pitcher for a while. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier 3
Craig Yoho (P, 26)
Yoho was a dominant closer for the Indiana Hoosiers in 2023, and was grabbed by the Brewers after his Senior season in that year's draft with an 8th round pick. Obviously, guys drafted as relievers start with a lower ceiling for the hobby, but Yoho came armed with a devastating change up that earned him a lot of acclaim rising through the Minors. 25 at the time of his debut (now freshly turned 26), Yoho posted a ridiculous 0.94 ERA split across A+, AA, and AAA very evenly in 2024, with an equally ridiculous 15.8 K/9 and a perfectly fine 3.6 BB/9 in 57.2 IP. He also didn’t allow a single homer in the campaign, and it looked like the Brewers had stumbled into another elite closer in the pipeline. Yoho really struggled to throw strikes upon receiving the call in 2025, pitching to a 7.27 ERA in 8.2 IP (8 appearances) for the Brewers. He walked 9, which is highly uncharacteristic of him, and only struck out 7. Despite this, he was excellent once again at AAA, where he posted an identical 0.94 ERA across 43 appearances (47.2 IP). The K/9 was down a bit at AAA but still an excellent 11.3 K/9, and the walks increased only slightly to 3.8 BB/9. He once again didn’t allow a homer in AAA- he hasn’t given up a minor league long ball since 2023, where he allowed 1 in rookie ball. He allowed one for the Brewers, but this means he’s given up two home runs in 116.2 innings. There’s clearly serious arm talent here, but Yoho needs to throw strikes the next time he gets a chance in the Majors. He should and will be afforded every opportunity to succeed in 2026, but for a team with aspirations like the Brewers, the leash will not be infinite. The talent is there, he’s put up excellent numbers at every stop as a pro and notably in a large sample at AAA, Yoho just needs to trust his stuff and throw strikes. The walk problems haven’t really existed in the Minors, and that gives me some confidence that we can chalk a weak 2025 debut up to rookie nerves and consider Yoho a likely member of the 2026 Opening Day pen for the Brewers. I like him as a Tier Three guy despite the bad line at the MLB level in 2025. He could be an elite reliever, and we will learn a ton about Yoho next year. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Caleb Durbin (3B, 25)
The diminutive Durbin (5’ 7”) was one of the more fun stories of the 2025 season, as the Washington University of St. Louis alum (D3, playing in a conference with powerhouses like NYU and Brandeis) emerged as a really steady and reliable piece for an excellent Brewers squad. Durbin posted a .721 OPS playing all over the infield, primarily at third, for the Brew Crew, and doing a bit of everything in the mean time. He stole 18 bags, popped 11 homers, and wound up with a respectable and slightly above average OPS+ of 101. He amassed 2.8 bWAR across his 445 at bats and 136 appearances, and deservedly received some down-ballot votes in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Durbin, a product of the Yankees farm system, accompanied Nestor Cortes as the package for Devin Williams heading to the Bronx. Despite Cortes being essentially a zero for Milwaukee this year, you could still make an argument that the Brewers won the trade thanks to the performance of Durbin. He’s the ultimate “scrappy infield utility” stereotype, leading the NL in HBP with 24, not really striking out, and playing a strong third base. To be clear, Durbin didn’t stumble into this success out of nowhere. He posted an .867 OPS in 82 games for the Yankees AAA affiliate in Wilkes-Barre, with 10 homers, more walks than strikeouts, and 29 stolen bases. He will at the very least be a strong utility piece for the Brewers in 2026, and should retain his starting role at third. He’s limited to being a Tier Three guy, but he’s definitely a Tier Two value guy as far as real world baseball goes. Maybe the best of the Tier Three’s in this product, Durbin is a fun player who I’m sure will have some hobby appeal, especially to Brewers fans. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier None
Chad Patrick (P, 27)
You probably wouldn’t guess it based on his win-loss record of 3-8 as a rookie, but the 27 year old Patrick had a really nice year debuting at the big league level for the Brewers in 2025. While not quite a Felix Hernandez or Jacob DeGrom type year where the win-loss record is totally laughable compared to the ERA and other metrics, Patrick posted a really strong 3.53 ERA across 27 appearances (23 starts, 119.2 IP) in 2025, striking out just over a batter per inning (127). His FIP matched his ERA exactly at 3.53, and he did well to limit walks (3.0 BB/9) while striking guys out at a good clip. Originally a 4th round selection by the Diamondbacks in 2021, Patrick was good in 2022, dreadful in 2023 (5.59 ERA predominately in AA), and great in 2024 upon joining the Brewers system, posting a 14-1 record with a 2.90 ERA for AAA Nashville. This certainly put him on the radar heading into 2025, and after a solid 8 starts in Nashville to kick off the campaign, Patrick found himself in the Bigs where he hit the ground running. The Brewers actually got him in exchange for Abraham Toro in late 2023, so that move already looks great for the Brewers. The Savant page for Patrick is very average. Lots of light blue bubbles, save for a good not great K rate. He throws his cutter and sinker 65% of the time, the 4 seamer another 22% of the time, and a few variations of off speed pitches the remaining 12% of the time. He could certainly benefit from adding a real strong breaking ball to his arsenal in 2026, and this would likely help elevate him from a pretty average starter into a good one. That’s not to say he wasn’t good in 2025, but I think he outplayed his peripherals by a little bit and needs to adjust heading into the new season. Already 27, there isn’t a ton of projectable runway for Patrick like there is with Logan Henderson, but I think he’s certainly going to at the very least be a nice back of the rotation option for the Brewers moving forward. He’s a broderline Tier None back-starter and Tier Three guy, but his age and lack of projectability drop him into Tier None - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Connor Thomas (P, 27)
Thomas debuted for the Brewers as a 27 year old rookie in 2025 after being grabbed from the Cardinals organization in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft. Coming off an excellent year for the Cardinals AAA affiliate in Memphis (2.89 ERA across 90.1 IP out of the pen), the lefty struggled in very brief action for the Brewers (2 appearances for 5.1 IP with a 20.25 ERA), then hit the Injured List with elbow arthritis, which turned into a 60 day stint, which turned into season ending surgery. Thomas declined an assignment to the minors after the season, and elected free agency after the conclusion of the season. Now a free agent, it remains unclear if Thomas will be healthy heading into 2025 after undergoing a loose-body clean up type surgery to address his elbow issues. Obviously a great start to the year gone horribly wrong, it’s hard to read into Thomas’ brief stint in the bigs. Lots of questions surrounding his future such as: where will he be pitching, will he be healthy, etc. make it tough to bank on Thomas for any value looking ahead. He had a strong enough rise through the minor leagues and will be 28 in 2026, so he isn’t totally behind the 8 ball yet. But for him to have any real lasting shot, he’ll have to get healthy and prove that his pair of bad outings in the Majors were a fluke. Lots to be learned in 2026! - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Drew Avans (OF, 29)
Drew “Don’t call me Drew Evans” Avans debuted for the Athletics in late May, going just 2-15 without an extra base hit before ultimately being DFA’d. He was snagged off of waivers by the Brewers, and he only appeared in one game for the big club in 2025, going 0-2 but getting his first MLB RBI in the process of doing so. The 29 year old profiles as a corner outfielder at this point, and the lefty saw the majority of his time in left field this year. His 2025 in the Minors was really the tale of two seasons- with the A’s affiliate in Las Vegas at AAA he posted an .859 OPS in 189 at bats, but upon joining the Brewers AAA squad in Nashville, that number fell to .696 in an almost identical 199 at bat sample. Obviously, there’s some pretty major differences in altitude and humidity etc that impact the hitting environment in a place like Las Vegas, so you’d have to assume that Avans stats were elevated a bit as a result of his surroundings more than anything. In 2024, for the Dodgers AAA affiliate in Oklahoma City, he posted a .762 OPS on the back of 8 homers and 40 steals, so there is a bit of a tool kit there. He matched the 40 steals exactly between his two teams in 2025 at AAA, but only swiped one bag in his limited duty in the Bigs. He’s probably not a serious candidate for the Brewers moving forward, given their young outfield talent and ability to turn up monster IFA prospects on a seemingly annual basis. He’s a Tier None guy who could maybe turn into a 4th outfielder thanks to his speed if a lot of things break right in 2026. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
James Meeker (P, 30)
Meeker is going to be one of the briefer write ups for this product. He debuted (and whatever the opposite of a debut is, swan song perhaps) on June 7th of 2024 for the Brewers against the Tigers, turning in a scoreless inning of work in relief allowing a hit and a walk without a strikeout. Despite putting up a 2.82 ERA in the minors in 2024 over 51 innings, this was the sole opportunity Meeker got with the Brewers, and found himself pitching in Staten Island in Indy ball in 2025. He posted a 4.25 ERA across 36 innings out of the FerryHawks pen. Not to be rude to Meeker, but he was teammates with Pablo Sandoval who hit 13 bombs in this league as a 38 year old in 2025. So the lack of success against that sort of competition probably spells the end of the line for Meeker’s big league hopes, but all it takes is a shot in the Minors followed by some success to get back into the picture. Meeker is now 30, which makes things a bit tougher for him. Not a guy with any hobby appeal. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
MIN
Tier 2
Luke Keaschall (2B, 23)
Keaschall is certainly one of the better hitters in this release, as he put up some really nice numbers in an injury shortened rookie campaign. The former second rounder out of Arizona State in 2023, Keaschall ascended quickly through the minors and debuted in late April for the Twins, and went on to post a .827 OPS alongside a .302 average with 4 long balls and 14 steals- good for a 128 OPS+ at second base. The now 23 year old Keaschall was named to the First Team All Rookie lineup this week, and has certainly established himself as the guy at 2nd for the Twins. Obviously, nobody was going to touch Nick Kurtz in the AL ROTY race, but Keaschall got some down ballot votes and you have to imagine he could have finished higher had he not been limited to 49 games due to injury. He’s an exciting piece for the Twins, and the Savant page shows that he already boasts great zone control, limiting strikeouts and chasing out of the zone while squaring balls up at a strong rate. He wasn’t the greatest fielder, but there’s some leniency at 2nd and it’s hard to judge harshly given the small sample for an otherwise athletic player. Keaschall should be a key piece for the Twins as they head into a retool/rebuild, and a guy that they can pencil into the lineup for years to come. I think he’s probably a Tier Two guy given the second base profile and the lack of home run power, but he’s a great name for real life. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier 3
Brooks Lee (SS, 24)
2025 Topps Update Series:
Draft/prospect pedigree, a plus hit tool, and no real weakness outside of no stolen bases in the profile had me lean Tier 2 in 2025 Topps Series 1 even if I was questioning whether he could hit for enough power to bring those types of prices. Add in that the Twins are not the most collectible team and it was a decision that I flip-flopped on up until publish. Fast forward to the end of the 2025 season and Lee landed right in the area I was expecting for power and speed. In 139 games, he hit 16 home runs and stole 3 bases - I had said 15-ish home runs and 5 stolen bases back in February. What I didn’t see coming was a .236 batting average. Lee had a K rate under 18% - a great foundation in line with past results and what I was expecting. When he was making contact, it was often poor contact. The barrel rate was in the 22nd percentile, the hard hit rate in the 28th percentile, launch angle sweet spot in the 12th percentile, and his bat speed in the 15th percentile. While he was a four seam fastball crusher, he struggled against the majority of other pitch types, especially change-ups, sliders, and sweepers. He hit .190 against change-ups, .111 against sliders, and .063 against sweepers. If Lee can’t fix those deficiencies, he’s going to continue to hit under .250 and should be considered more like Tier None than Tier 2. That drops his hit tool from plus to average, and with nothing else in his profile registering above average, it’s dangerously close to Tier None. At just 24 years old and growing up in the baseball world his entire life, I wouldn’t be surprised if he figures out how to shore up his holes. But I’m not going to sugarcoat it, 2025 was a concerning year for Lee’s hobby value. I’m dropping him into Tier 3 until we see if he can hit anything other than a fastball.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Lee is currently on that borderline of Tier 2 and Tier 3 for me. There’s a decent amount of pedigree as a former first round pick at 8th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft and plenty of family ties to the baseball world. From a skill set perspective, it’s all about the potential plus hit tool. Lee has consistently shown an ability to put the bat to the ball while keeping the strikeout rate under 20% at every stop in his pro career outside of an easy to ignore two game sample in Double-A in 2022. Looking at his other tools, everything is likely to evolve into above average tools with the exception of stolen bases, which are in that “chip-in” type of area. His power is going to play in that 10-20 range, and that’s mostly because he’s more focused on contact rather than power. I wouldn’t be surprised that if he changed his approach, he could consistently hit 20 home runs or more, but it probably comes with a cost of more strikeouts and less contact. Defensively he can play any spot in the infield, and that is valuable in an infield that potentially has regular injury risks Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa. So we have a .280-.300 hitter with 15-ish home runs and 5 stolen bases - that’s essentially a hitter on the border of Tier 2 and Tier 3 - without that 1st round draft pedigree, I would likely drop him into Tier 3, but it’s just enough for me to be willing to spend a few extra bucks on his cards. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Zebby Matthews (P, 25)
2025 Topps Update Series:
I’m not sure if I’m breaking news here or not, but MLB hitters are good, y’all. Zebby is elite at putting the ball where the catcher puts his glove and lives all around the edges and in the strike zone. Even with above average velocity - Zebby’s four seamer sits 96 - MLB hitters are regularly putting the barrel on the ball. The K rate, the chase rate, the whiff rate, the walk rate - all are good to great. But the results are simply not. It’s a conundrum for how the data and underlying numbers look, and the reality of the results. Some of that is that when hitters are making contact, it’s in the air. Combining high barrel rates with high fly ball and line drive rates is a tough task towards successful results. Add in that his pull air rate is above the normal range and that’s a recipe for a disappointing season. I still feel there is a foundation for a solid SP3/SP4 with Matthews. Even while being roughed up, he kept the walk rate under 7% and approached a 25% K rate. The 5.56 ERA was roughly one to two runs above the ERA indicators - xERA at 4.64, FIP at 3.79, xFIP at 3.81, SIERA at 3.82. Stuff+ was generally positive with a 106 overall. The yin and yang analysis could go on endlessly here, but ultimately I’m going to stick to my 2025 Topps Series 1 guns and keep Matthews in Tier 3 even if his 2025 results were more in line with a Tier None pitcher. I wouldn’t be overly interested from a Hobby perspective, but I wouldn’t mind holding and seeing if he could right the ship.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Matthews has elite command and control, and up until he reached the majors, he simply had to locate his pitches in the strike zone and he wouldn’t be overly punished for it. At times, his home run rates would jump, but once he debuted at the majors, it really went into untenable territory. It was a 21% home run to fly ball rate with a 2.63 HR/9 number. There aren’t really any starters who can survive with those type of numbers. With three above average pitches - a mid-90’s fastball, slider, and cutter, he’s not just relegated to keeping the ball in the zone - he can get strikeouts. If he can find a way to balance to live more around the zone rather than in the zone and keep the ball in the park, you’ve got all the ingredients of an SP4 with perhaps a bit more at peak. The optimistic rank is Tier 3, which is where I have him, but I don’t think I’d rush to buy his cards. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
Mickey Gasper (2B, 29)
Gasper, a native of New Hampshire and a Bryant University alum, made his big league debut in 2024 for the Red Sox as a 28 year old. The utility man had a pretty tough go of things with the Sox- he went 0-18 in his first taste of pro ball before being sent back to the minors. Interestingly, he had been going completely nuts in AAA- over 48 games at AAA Worcester, he put up a whopping 1.062 OPS. Unfortunately, there was zero translation when he broke into the Bigs for the first time. He wound up in the Minnesota organization heading into 2025, and the story remained the same. He went absolutely nuts at AAA St Paul, with an OPS of .915 in 47 games, and had a brutal go of things in a larger body of work at the Major League level, with just a .488 OPS in 95 at bats this go around. He did pop two homers, but in going 15-95 in his second try at the Majors may have hurt any chances Gasper had to get any serious looks moving forward. He’s probably just a really good AAA bat, and organizational depth that can’t currently be relied on to produce in any way for a big league club. He’s in Tier None. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Carson McCusker (OF, 27)
One of the more fun names in the product (in a literal sense), the 6’ 8” 250 pound McCusker saw limited duty for the Twins in 2025 upon making his debut, but did post some fun numbers in the minors. In his brief spell with the big club, McCusker posted a .372 OPS on the back of going 5-29 without a homer- he also struck out 16 times in his 29 at bats and only walked once. He did post a .795 OPS at AAA St. Paul this past year, with 22 homers in 106 games (390 at bats), however the strikeout issues (148 in 390 at bats) are about as big of a red flag as it gets. The power output is nice, but when you’re making Spencer Jones look like Luis Arraez, there’s a problem. McCusker also really didn't walk much in AAA (36 times), so it seems like his approach at the plate is more unrefined rather than intentionally aggressive. Aaron Judge makes hitting with a massive strike zone look easy, and makes us forget how difficult it can be for gigantic hitters. McCusker isn’t a serious prospect at this point (he’s 27), and although he’s fun for his name, size, and hitting the ball hard, I have to put him in Tier None because I do not see a Major League future for him unless he makes some serious changes. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Armando Alvarez (3B, 31)
Alvarez debuted for the Athletics (I suppose they were still the Oakland A’s) in 2024, getting 37 at bats and going 9-37 without a homer. The journeyman who has logged 450 games at the AAA level did not appear in the Majors for the Twins organization in 2025, playing in 38 games to the tune of a .672 OPS before stints in Indy Ball and in Mexico. That's probably a wrap for Alvarez’s chances at the bigs, but another guy who can at least say that he did make it to the Major Leagues. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Ryan Fitzgerald (2B, 31)
Fitzgerald debuted for the Twins this year as a 31 year old rookie, so he certainly beat the odds there. What's more, he actually performed pretty well in limited action, posting a .758 OPS in 46 at bats (24 GP). Now he did only go 9-46 at the dish, but 4 of the 9 hits were home runs, which helped prop up the slugging numbers despite a mediocre average. Fitzgerald had performed pretty well in AAA St. Paul, posting a .837 OPS in 59 games, so while the success didn’t necessarily come out of nowhere, it’s pretty cool to see a guy get his first shot at the bigs as a 31 year old and do OK. Now I don’t see much appeal to Fitzgerald when it comes to the Hobby, and you’d imagine his age really works against him when it comes to the organizational pecking order for a Twins organization that is almost certainly heading for a rebuild. A cool story for sure, but a Tier None guy here. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Brady Feigl (P, 34)
This will probably be the most brief blurb I do for anyone in this product. Feigl debuted for the Pirates at age 33 in 2024, and in his sole appearance he gave up 6 ER in 1.2 IP without getting a strikeout. He found himself in AAA St. Paul with the Twins organization this year, and did not see the Majors again, posting a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 innings before disappearing into the abyss. Don’t want to rag on the guy, but there just isn’t much to be said. Seems wildly unlikely that Feigl will ever get a second shot at the bigs, but he can always say that he did in fact make it! - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
NYM
Tier None
Blade Tidwell (P, 24)
Tidwell briefly acted as a swingman for an injury-riddled Met pitching staff in the first half before being shipped to San Francisco alongside Jose Butto and Drew Gilbert in the Tyler Rogers trade. Bit of pedigree here as a former second round pick out of Tennessee, and he generally floated around the 8-12 range in Mets prospect rankings before his debut. After the trade, Tidwell was assigned to AAA and didn’t appear in a Giants uniform. He posted a 9.00 ERA in 15 innings across 2 starts and 2 relief outings as a Met, with a 2.20 WHIP and 10/10 K/BB. The lack of any real swing and miss limits the ceiling here considerably, especially for a young arm. When combined with a habit of walking too many guys, it's tough to picture success for Tidwell unless he's able to make some real changes to his approach. Tidwell will be 25 in May, so age really isn’t on his side, either. He could develop into a back of the rotation innings eater, but that seems to pretty firmly be his 90th percentile outcome given the age, stats, and lack of electric stuff. Maybe it plays up as a reliever? Who knows. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Luisangel Acuña (2B, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series:
More name value than real value, which can drive Hobby prices, Acuña’s flaws were on full display in 2025. The average to below average power completely evaporated. His struggle against velocity and the four seam fastball in particular was exposed. The lack of arm strength pushed him off of splitting time at shortstop to almost exclusively playing second base. On the less negative side, he was able to keep his K (19%) and whiff (22%) rates in plus territory and show off his plus speed with 16 stolen bases in just 193 plate appearances. I ranked Acuña in Tier 3 in 2025 Topps Series 1, in part due to the name value and the team collectability. He’s just 23 years old, so there’s always an outcome where he’s an everyday player that hits .275 and steals 30 bases. The home run power just doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen though - his approach is very much putting the ball in play, spraying it in the gaps and up the middle. This is a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None profile. The Tier None outcome is more of a second division regular/first division utility player. The Tier 3 outcome is that he can do the above statline for a first division team, especially a collectible one like the Mets. He’s still young enough for me to question if I should completely be out, but I’m out. I’m dropping him to Tier None because I just don’t see him consistently being able to an everyday starter on a first division team.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
I’ve pretty much always been on the sell-side of Acuña, whether that's with his cards or in fantasy baseball. Too many people see the last name and assume there’s plus power in his future, when he’s nothing really like his older brother, Ronald Jr. In reality, he’s a contact over power type of hitter that wants to run wild with his plus speed. He can play anywhere that’s needed with a strong arm and a good glove. He spent the majority of 2024 at Triple-A which was a mixed bag overall - lots of contact and an aggressive approach that led to his walk rate being cut in half and seeing his batting average drop under .260 and his OBP dropping under .300. However, he ended 2024 on a high note at the MLB level, and that hype with a Mets collector base backing him up, could see Tier 2 player price points because of that small sample size success. I’d be happy to take the money if/when there is hype, as I see him as more of a volatile Tier 3 type of player.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
The results have been about what I expected, and if you sold his cards like I recommended, good on you. In 2025, with fairly regular playing time, Acuña has put up a 71 wRC+, hitting .246/.298/.292 with 11 stolen bases and zero home runs. Outside of his speed and defense, there hasn’t been much to be positive about in 2025. I’d continue to sell in the short term. In the long term, as long as the Mets are patient, there’s still a decent chance Acuña is the everyday starter at second base, setting the table at the top of the lineup. I don’t see that happening immediately, especially as the Mets are fighting to stay atop the NL East and can’t afford to be patient. But his name value plus collectable team and future potential are enough to keep him where I had him in Series 1, which is in Tier 3. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Justin Hagenman (P, 29)
Another name burned into my mind that epitomizes the Mets carousel of pitchers in 2025, Hagenman will be 29 by release day, and debuted in April as a 28 year old. He actually was serviceable in a tough spot for the Mets, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 K’s in 23.2 innings across 9 appearances. Hagenman is a former 23rd rounder out of Penn State, so it’s always cool to see a guy taken in a round that no longer exists make it all the way to the Bigs. Hagenman was optioned five (5) times this season, so now that he has burned his flexibility he will likely be looking for a spot in a new organization for 2026 unless the Mets decide to guarantee him a spot in the pen heading into 2026, which I doubt. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Hayden Senger (C, 28)
Senger was this year's Spring Training “feel good” story, after being profiled for some articles regarding his offseason job stocking shelves and handling boxes at his local Whole Foods. Hard not to root for these types of guys, and the stories always shine a light on the non glamorous side of Pro ball. On a positive note, Senger likely accumulated enough cash from spending roughly half the year on the Mets roster that he won’t have to pick up a side gig this Winter. On the other hand, Senger saw 72 AB’s as a Met and didn’t do anything with them, posting a .415 OPS with 0 homers. Senger will turn 29 in April, and is a former 24th rounder- so he profiles like a position player version of Hagenman. Fun story and a guy you root for, but his cards will not be ones I chase, even as a Mets diehard. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
NYY
Tier 2
Ben Rice (1B, 26)
2025 Topps Update Series:
Whelp, I’m going to have to take the “L” on Ben Rice. I had him in Tier 3 with his 1st Bowman write-up in 2024 as well as his 2025 Topps Series 1 ranking. I felt the platoon concerns and Paul Goldschmidt would be too much to overcome in his first full season in New York. I was wrong! Not that I don’t think he’s going to continue to sit against tough lefties as he hit just .208 against same side pitchers in 2025. But he can still get to his power against them as he hit 7 of his 26 home runs against lefties this season. And Paul Goldschmidt, as the season went along, proved to be less of an impediment than I thought. Not to mention that he got more reps behind the dish than I expected (he’s not a great defensive catcher) and at designated hitter due to various injuries to the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and others. On the most collectible team in baseball, having a breakout season with 26 home runs, and a statcast page dripping red, there’s almost an argument for Rice to get into Tier 1. The platoon issues keep me from taking that leap though - his K rate jumped from a fantastic 16% against righties to an acceptable but not great 28% against lefties. This is a Tier 2, righty crusher in a stadium built for him to take advantage of, on the most collectible team in baseball. I can’t imagine his cards will be cheap, but I’d be willing to throw some cash on his cards if I found the right deals.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
My opinion hasn’t really changed since my 2024 Bowman Chrome write-up of Ben Rice. A passive hitter with big power from the left side that can take advantage of the right field short porch in Yankee stadium but doesn’t make enough consistent contact for me to be comfortable pushing him higher. With the Yankees signing Paul Goldschmidt, Rice is ticketed to start the year in Triple-A which will suppress his card values in the short term. I’d buy his cards if they were cheap enough, but I imagine Yankees collectors will spend more than I’d ever be willing. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier None
J.C. Escarra (C, 30)
Escarra made his debut for the Yankees as a 30 year old catcher this year, where he was able to pop a couple home runs and put up a respectable enough .629 OPS in limited duty (84 ABs). Escarra appeared once after the trade deadline, and seemingly falls pretty low on the organizational depth chart at the moment. In an organization earning a reputation for developing catchers seemingly out of thin air, it feels impossible to expect Escarra to return to the Bronx unless it is serving as AAA depth. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Jorbit Vivas (2B, 24)
Vivas is an undersized second baseman who debuted this year in Pinstripes as a 24 year old. Vivas put up a .516 OPS over 56 at bats with 1 homer and failed to record a stolen base. Spending the majority of the year at AAA Wilkes-Barre, he was able to put up a .753 OPS with 4 homers and 12 swipes (and he actually posted a 64:45 BB:K ratio, impressive at any level), but it is just hard to see any sort of starting role at the Major League level for Vivas, much less in a deep organization. Maybe he can hope to carve out a utility type role for a weaker organization, but there just isn’t much to see here as long as he remains in the Yankee system. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
PHI
Tier 3
Mick Abel (P, 24)
Abel, taken with the 15th pick as a High School starter by the Phillies back in 2020, had quite the eventful 2025- a dominant debut, a few shellings, and a deadline jersey swap. Abel saw a solid climb across the consensus prospect boards between 2021 and 2024, starting around the 90th consensus in 2021 and climbing into the high 40s by Spring of 2024. The hype train came to a screeching halt in 2024, however, as Abel hit a wall at AAA Lehigh Valley as a 22 year old, posting a 6.46 ERA in 24 starts (108.2 IP). Abel swiftly fell off all the major lists, and certainly lost some of his shine. It is worth noting, however, that Abel was only 22 and put up solid K numbers (117 in 108.2 IP)- he was just walking tons of guys (78 in 108.2), and getting hit as well. Abel bounced back in a strong way to start the year at AAA Lehigh Valley, where he posted a 3.21 ERA over 13 starts (74 IP) before his debut for the Phillies. Abel made his first start in Philly against the Pirates, and was awesome- he struck out 9 over 6 shutout innings, allowing 5 hits without issuing a free pass. Abel went back down for a bit and was in the rotation through June, where he continued to put up decent numbers before getting blasted by the Padres on July 2nd, in what was his last start for the Phillies. He was sent down after this one and eventually part of the Jhoan Duran trade (alongside Eduardo Tait). He made 4 starts for the Twins, the first two going terribly, the third going OK, and the fourth essentially mirroring his debut- facing the Phillies in Philly he shut them out over 6 innings and had another 9 Ks allowing 3 hits. In totality, Abel made 8 starts (10 appearances) and posted a 3-4 record to go with a 6.23 ERA. It was notably bookended with two excellent starts, and clearly there is something there with Abel. He will be 24 until August of next season, and is an exciting arm for the Twins organization as they likely spend this Winter retooling at the very least. The Savant page is pretty pedestrian across the board, but it isn’t terrible and certainly backs up the thought that this was a building block year for Abel. I think off draft capital and pedigree he’s a Tier Three guy. Certainly a lot of variance in potential outcomes, and a good guy to keep an eye on heading into next year. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier None
Max Lazar (P, 26)
Lazar actually debuted for the Phils as a 25 year old in 2024, pitching in 11 games (13.2 IP), where he was OK in more of a depth relief role, posting a 4.61 ERA. He saw a lot more action in 2025, appearing in 36 games (41.1 IP), posting a pretty similar 4.79 ERA. Lazar posted a 5.7 K/9 this past year, so that immediately limits his Hobby value. In conjunction with the fact he’s a reliever, and not particularly young, I’m not sure there’s any reason for Hobby appeal here. Per Savant, the only thing Lazar does particularly well is limit walks (7.1% BB rate, too small a sample to have a percentile, however). Lazar will likely remain in the Phillies pen going into next year, however it would be surprising to see him pushed into any real high-leverage spot with any regularity. He’s a Tier None guy for the Hobby. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
PIT
Tier 3
Braxton Ashcraft (P, 25)
The 25 year old Ashcraft was actually a revelation for the Pirates in 2025, posting a 2.71 ERA across 26 appearances (8 starts), throwing 69.2 innings. This wasn’t exactly out of nowhere, as he had posted a 2.84 ERA split between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis in 2024, and Ashcraft has certainly carved out a role (remains to be determined in what capacity, however) for the Pirates in 2026. Ashcraft struck a good number of guys out (9.2 K/9), limited walks well enough (3.1 BB/9), and only allowed 3 homers in his 69.1 innings of work. The former 2nd rounder by the Bucs way back in 2018 has a really nice Savant page with a good bit of red. He excels at inducing ground balls and avoiding barrels, and doesn’t have any real weak areas to his game. He primarily works off a hard slider (92 MPH, 31% usage) and a 4 seamer (97 MPH, 30% usage), and mixes in a curve and a hard sinker as well. He’s a really nice building block for a Pirates team that could always use more talent, however given the age and unclear role (potential long-term reliever), it’s tough to assign him too much value for Hobby purposes. I think he’s a Tier Three guy here, but the talent is more Tier Two. If he gets a chance to start regularly in 2026, he will immediately become a Tier Two guy, but given the uncertainty around his role heading into next season, I am going to drop him into Tier Three with the note that he is certainly a guy worth keeping tabs on. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Tier None
Thomas Harrington (P, 23)
Harrington, the former Campbell Camel, debuted early in the 2025 season as a 23 year old arm for the Pirates. Taken in the Comp A round (36th overall) in 2022, Harrington was excellent in 2024 split pretty evenly between AA and AAA, where he cumulatively posted a 2.61 ERA in 21 Starts, good for 117.1 IP. He struck out 115 and only walked 19, so the capability to strike guys out and seriously limit walks was a stand out trait for Harrington. He was an easy top 10 organizational guy for the Pirates heading into 2025, and had high expectations attached to his name. Unfortunately, the year was about as big a disaster as you could imagine for Harrington. He appeared in 3 big league games (1 start), and in 8.2 innings he allowed 18 hits and walked 7 more, good for a 15.58 ERA. Obviously a small sample, but a WHIP of 2.88 is pretty grotesque. Harrington spent the rest of the year in AAA, and despite succeeding at the level in 2024, he was equally brutal there. He posted a 5.34 ERA in 20 starts in Indianapolis, walked almost double the number of guys he had in the year prior in 21 less innings, and the strikeout numbers even took a small step back. He gave up a ton of fly balls (0.55 GO/AO rate), which led to allowing 20 homers- 1 per start. The Savant page resembles a Blue Man Group show, and I really don’t know how to evaluate Harrington moving forward. I think the performance was bad enough to push him into Tier None, with the caveat that he does have clear potential to bounce back and rise a tier in 2026 if he can fix things. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tsung-Che Cheng (SS, 24)
The 24 year old Cheng signed with the Pirates as an IFA out of Taiwan back in 2019, and made a brief debut for the Pirates in 2025. The small (5’ 8”) middle infielder got action in 3 games for the Pirates, going 0-7 with a stolen base. He wasn’t great at AAA Indianapolis where he saw the bulk of his action this year, posting a .572 OPS in 107 games. He stole 20 bags, but for a guy who doesn’t produce much if any power, you’d like the batting average to be above .207 (and the K rate to not be above 25%). I don’t really see Cheng becoming a valuable Major Leaguer in any capacity, whether it be real life or in the Hobby. Maybe the Taiwanese connection adds a touch of value, but he’s a Tier None guy and nothing more than organizational filler at this point in time. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Ronny Simon (2B, 25)
Simon, hailing from La Romana in the Dominican Republic, is probably only known for unfortunate reasons. Simon made national news back in late May while playing for the Marlins, leaving the game in tears after being charged with 3 tough errors playing second. It was hard not to feel really bad for Simon at the moment, and I hate the fact that this is really the only way of discussing him where he will be recognizable. He posted a .572 OPS in 77 at bats in 2025, also posting a pretty horrific -1.2 WAR in a tiny sample. Now in the Pirates organization, you certainly hope that a fresh start and change of scenery can benefit Simon going into 2026. He had an .844 OPS to go with 28 steals in the minors in 2025, so there is certainly something there with Simon and he shouldn’t be written off entirely. For now, however, he is a Tier None guy but someone I think everyone would like to see succeed and have a big moment to replace his unfortunate one from this season. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Matt Gorski (OF, 27)
Gorski was selected by the Pirates in the 2nd round out of Indiana back in 2019, and made his debut this year as a 27 year old for the Bucs. He wasn’t great in a small-ish sample, going 8-41 with a pair of homers and 16 strikeouts, good for a .605 OPS. He had posted a .841 OPS with 23 bombs at the AAA level in 2025, so there is definitely some juice in his bat. He struck out a ton in AAA, though, pushing 30% with the K rate in the minors, which probably excludes him from any real consideration moving forward for now. He was DFA’d and then released by the Pirates in mid-July following his stint with the big club, and was actually signed a couple weeks later by the Dodgers on a Minor League deal. Gorski missed the rest of the year with an injury and did not appear in a game for the organization (unfortunately, no ring). I’m not sure if he will remain in the Dodgers organization heading into 2026, but between the obvious stars littering the lineup and the unbelievable crop of outfield prospects pushing their way to the bigs, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Gorski sees any role other than solely being minor league depth for the Dodgers. He’s a pretty clear Tier None guy. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Chase Shugart (P, 29)
Shugart actually debuted for the Red Sox in 2024, appearing in 6 games for 8.2 IP and posting a respectable 4.15 ERA in limited duty. The bespectacled former Texas Longhorn saw increased action in 2025 after joining the Pirates organization, and he pitched really nicely in a relief role. In 35 appearances (45 IP), Shugart posted a strong 3.40 ERA. The issue for Hobby ceiling here is the lack of strikeouts (31 in 45 IP)- that almost certainly keeps him out of routine high leverage relief appearances, and given the fact he is now 29, it’s not clear that he becomes anything more than a pretty good middle reliever. Valuable for real baseball, not valuable for the Hobby and collecting purposes. He’s a Tier None guy as far as our purposes go, but a real asset to the Pirates. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Grant Koch (C, 28)
Koch is one of those guys where I am not quite sure why he is included in the product. He appeared in 3 games for the Buccos in 2024, going 0-7 with 6 K’s. He had posted a .546 OPS in 30 games at the AAA level before getting the call, and I think the Arkansas alum was just a case of there not being a ton of Catchers in the Pirates organization (though they have some nice young names there now). It seems that Koch didn’t appear in affiliated ball in 2025, or any type of baseball for that matter. He’s been a free agent for over a year now, so this is obviously a Tier None guy with zero appeal. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
SDP
Tier None
Ryan Bergert (RHP, 25)
Bergert, now with the Royals, emerged as a solid arm in 2025. Sent to the Royals from the Padres along with Stephen Kolek in exchange for Freddy Fermin, Bergert was fantastic for the Padres in 11 appearances (7 starts)- over 35.2 innings he posted a 2.78 ERA. After the move, his performance did fall off a bit in his 8 appearances (all starts), putting up a 4.43 ERA in 40.2 innings. All in, Bergert had a 3.66 ERA across 76.1 innings in 2025, with 73 K’s and 35 BB’s issued. The arsenal isn’t particularly sexy- Bergert relies more on limiting hard contact to find success. With this being said, he’s a Tier None guy in the product. Another one who is more valuable in real life than he is when it comes to the Hobby. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
David Morgan (P, 26)
Morgan, who grew up a Padres fan in Mission Viejo, CA, was a revelation for the Pads bullpen in 2025, as he posted a 2.66 ERA over 47.1 IP in his first taste of Major League action. Morgan, who made 41 appearances (2 starts, opener), had pretty strong numbers all around- 50 K’s in those 47.1 IP against 23 walks. Morgan went undrafted in 2022, and joined the Padres organization as a UDFA after a successful workout post draft. He had been largely mediocre in the minors, with a 4.03 ERA in 2023 and a 5.04 ERA in 2024, and only pitched 5.2 innings in AAA (in 2025) before being forced into action at the Major League level. Clearly, there was something in his peripherals that pushed him through the system despite poor surface stats, and the Padres must feel assured that their methodology was correct. He works off a good fastball, averaging 97.9 MPH, and features a curve and slider as well. You could argue there’s a bit of room for improvement on his ability to induce ground balls, as he had a 44.9% ground ball rate (league average is 44.2%), however pitching in Petco is a bit more forgiving for this anyway. A great piece for the Pads and a really cool story. I’ll definitely keep an eye out for him in the future, however for now he’s a tier none. If he finds himself in more high leverage spots, there is room for growth in the future for sure. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Tirso Ornelas (OF, 26)
Ornelas is a big dude- coming in at 6-3, 200 lbs, and man did he certainly hit like it in the Minors. In 128 AAA games for the Pads organization in 2024, Ornelas popped 23 homers en route to posting an .864 OPS and finding himself as a fringey top 10 organizational prospect. This does, however, come with the disclaimer that it’s probably the worst farm in the Majors, but a feat nonetheless. Ornelas followed it up with a .833 OPS over 82 games in El Paso this past year, and he got 14 at bats for the big club, where he was unable to make the most of a small stint, as he went 1-14 without a homer before being sent back down. I will say, it is intriguing that Ornelas has pretty good power metrics and only struck out 88 times in 485 at bats in 2024, and 64 times in 318 at bats in 2025. Even in the Majors, he fanned twice in his fourteen at bats, nothing to be ashamed of. The walk rates have been solid, and Ornelas will be turning 26 during Spring Training next year. It will definitely be a “show-me” year for Ornelas, and we will have a lot more insight as to what his future looks like then. For now, he’s a Tier None guy but, like Cruz above, you shouldn’t throw his cards in the trash either. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Omar Cruz (P, 26)
Cruz, a native of Mexico, debuted for the Padres this year at 26 and allowed 2 earned runs over 3.2 IP. He saw the bulk of his duty in 2025 at AAA El Paso, where he posted a 4.75 ERA across 31 appearances (11 starts) good for 83.1 innings in total. He struck out 88 in those 83.1 innings, so there is some swing and miss in his arm, but it came with 55 walks in 83.1 IP (he walked 3 in his 3.2 in the Majors). The lefty relies heavily on a four seamer that sits around 92, and is basically all fastball change up (with a cutter mixed in the other 11% of the time). Crafty lefties are always valuable, and who knows if Cruz can become a change of pace guy to, say, fireballer righty Mason Miller, in the future. The Padres like to move aggressively, as we all know, and this doesn’t really have the look of a guy that AJ Preller would want in the Pen on Opening Day 2026. He’s a Tier None guy, but I wouldn’t throw him in the irrelevant pile. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Trenton Brooks (1B, 30)
Brooks debuted for the Giants in 2024, getting 25 at bats as a 28 year old rookie where the corner outfielder and first baseman went 3-25 without a homer. He wound up in the Padres organization this year and saw time in 25 games, getting another 41 at bats and going 6-41 with a single homer, good for a .454 OPS. I should note that Brooks did post a .879 OPS with 15 homers in AAA this past year, after posting an .863 the year prior. The guy can hit, but is an example of the talent gap in pitching between AAA and the Major League level. Unfortunately, Brooks is now on the wrong side of 30 and while he didn’t get a particularly long leash in the bigs, the lack of success in 66 at bats probably has him permanently relegated to organizational filler status. He’s a Tier None guy. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Kyle Hart (P, 32)
Hart actually debuted for the Red Sox back in 2020, and in what was likely a year to forget for everyone, that is certainly true for Hart. He posted a 15.55 ERA in 11 innings for the BoSox and wound up in the KBO for a few years, finding his way back stateside and pitching at Petco Park in 2025 for the Padres. The results weren’t great- the 32 year old saw time in 20 games (6 starts, mostly as a bulk opener), for 43 innings, and posted a 5.86 ERA. He fanned 37 guys in his 43 innings which is OK, but I’m not sure what the outlook is for Hart long term. He did win the South Korean equivalent of the Cy Young award in his time overseas, posting a 2.69 ERA in 26 starts in 2024, but he was only OK in 20 appearances in AAA El Paso (4.10 ERA). His option was declined by the Padres a few days ago, so Hart finds himself looking for a new squad to join in 2026. He’ll probably get a Spring invite somewhere, I’m just not sure that a 32 year old journeyman will have a ton of suitors. Always cool to see a guy get back to the Majors after a 5 year period toiling in the Minors and Overseas, but he’s unfortunately a Tier None guy as far as the Hobby goes. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
SEA
Tier None
Ben Williamson (3B, 25)
Williamson had a solid rookie campaign as a utility man and injury fill-in on the left side of the infield and in left for the Mariners. Taken in the 2nd round of the 2023 Draft out of William and Mary, Williamson was 24 throughout his rookie year (turned 25 in early November), so as a bit of an older rookie, the deck is somewhat stacked against him for serious hobby relevance. Williamson posted a .769 OPS split between high A and AA in 2024, predominately hitting for contact with a bit of speed (19 steals). In 85 games for the Mariners this season, Williamson struggled to a .604 OPS, although he was hurt by the lack of homers (1) or doubles (13). Williamson actually hit a fine .253, however this loses its value when it comes as pretty empty calories in terms of impact. Williamson also only stole 5 bags upon reaching the Bigs- we see guys with fringe stolen base ability put up good numbers in the minors only to see a sharp decrease upon reaching the Majors, and it appears Williamson might fall into this category. He was able to accumulate 1.3 bWAR, so he was pacing to be right around the 2 WAR benchmark, but it seems like this was primarily due to his defensive versatility (although he graded out as a pretty average fielder by every metric). He’s a valuable piece to an organization thanks to his versatility and bat to ball skills, but as far as the Hobby goes, it isn’t a particularly moving resume. He falls into Tier None. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Logan Evans (P, 24)
Evans was fine as a spot starter this year for the Mariners, doing his job and keeping them in games if not much more than that. He made 16 appearances (15 starts) and posted a 6-5 record to go with a 4.32 ERA. The WAR is a bit ugly at -0.1- likely due to the fact that he doesn’t really strike guys out and gives up some hard contact. The FIP was pretty tough to Evans- he clocked in at a 5.05, although guys who don’t rack up strikeouts can sometimes be disproportionately punished by the metric. Posting a 6.5 K/9 is probably too tough to overcome for Hobby relevance. He can go out and give a team innings, but it won’t be a particularly electric or exciting experience. Fine organizational filler in real life, and the type of arm that is needed to get through a season, but he’s a no from me as far as any Hobby relevance goes. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Rhylan Thomas (OF, 25)
Former Mets draft pick alert! Thomas was taken by the Mets in the 11th round of the 2022 draft out of USC (Trojans, not Gamecocks), and seems to at the very least have distinguished himself as a guy worth a spot on a 40 man roster. Debuting at age 25, Thomas got only 8 at bats for the Mariners, going 1-8 with a double and a couple RBI’s. He spent the bulk of the year in AAA Tacoma, where he put up a .791 OPS (propped up by a .325 BA) in 134 games. Thomas doesn’t have much power in his game- the 7 long balls he popped for Tacoma this year set a new season high for any year of his pro career. His calling card is his speed and his ridiculous bat to ball ability. Thomas had 35 steals (43 attempts) in AAA, and struck out 32 times in 547 at bats- good for 5.8%. Similar to his organizational peer Ben Williamson (above), unfortunately Thomas is too much of an empty calories guy at the dish to be super relevant. For what it’s worth, I’d take his profile over that of Williamson, but neither is an enticing option. Thomas falls into Tier None for now- lets see if he can carve out a role with the big club in 2026. Don’t really expect that to happen, but it certainly wouldn’t be shocking. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Sauryn Lao (P, 26)
Lao is a 26 year old reliever who appeared in 8 big league games this year (2 with Seattle before ending up in the Nationals pen), and posting a 4.91 ERA over 11 innings. Lao struck out 9 and walked 2 in those 11 innings, which is fine- small sample, hard to read into. In the minors in 2024, he posted a 9.2 K/9 and was sitting around 9.5 this season before getting to the Bigs. For a guy who was a reliever throughout his time in the minors, that just isn’t quite the stuff you look for with the hopes of getting a higher leverage arm. Lao had a 3.01 ERA in the minors in 2025, and a 3.74 over 40 appearances in 2024. The former Dodgers international signee as an infielder is a guy who should have a chance to make the Nats pen out of Spring, but the lack of high end velo or strikeouts basically keep Lao off the Hobby radar. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Austin Kitchen (P, 28)
I was about to comment on Kitchen being a pretty old rookie this year at age 28, then realized he’s only 9 months older than I am. Anyhow, Kitchen made 4 appearances in the Majors for the Marlins in 2024 and it did not go well- 7 innings, 11 earned runs off 16 hits, and 4 K’s. He spent the entirety of 2025 in AAA Tacoma for the Mariners organization and pitched nicely, posting a 3.36 ERA over 48 appearances (69.2 IP). He only posted a 6.8 K/9 in AAA this year, and again, did not see time in the Majors. That’s pretty much the book on Kitchen- he’s firmly a Tier None guy. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
SFG
Tier None
Christian Koss (SS, 27)
A second division utility player that is fast but doesn’t steal that many bases, Koss was one of many options the Giants rotated through at second base and as an injury fill-in throughout 2025. I was regularly underwhelmed anytime I saw Koss play. There’s not a whole lot for me to even find silver linings outside of him keeping the strikeout rate reasonable at just under 24%. Koss may be able to continue to find work on second division teams over the next three to four years unless we see a material change in his profile. At 26 years old, time is starting to run out for that to happen, and we can find other places to invest our Hobby dollar. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Hayden Birdsong (P, 24)
2025 Topps Update Series:
An auto-only player in Series 1 that got his True Rookie Card in Series 2, Birdsong gets the Rookie Debut treatment in Update Series, along with an insert, relic, and the Golden Mirror auto version of his Series 2 Golden Mirror. After my Series 2 write-up, where he had just been moved back into a rotation role, Birdsong continued to get exposed. The change-up was the star of the show, while the cutter and slider at times were good enough, but the four seamer rarely was. The Giants eventually pulled the plug and sent him back down to Triple-A, keeping him in a starting role, but things did not get much better. A 15% BB rate and just a 24% K rate at Triple-A in 2025 is not good. Either the Giants stick him back in the pen, or they figure out how to fix his fastball or perhaps have him learn a two seamer instead. Until then, we can ignore Birdsong for the Hobby and he drops from Tier 3 down into Tier None.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Birdsong showed flashes in his debut that he could be a mid-rotation piece for the Giants at some point in the future. All three of his secondaries produced good to great results, with his slider being an absolute monster. More than anything, his fastball and his command let him down. The fastball just didn’t get enough swinging or called strikes for a pitch he throws almost half the time. Add in an almost 14% walk rate and that’s not a recipe for success for a starting pitcher. Bullpen risk will be ever present until Birdsong gets those two issues corrected. If he does, he’s got SP3 potential and perhaps better with a great home park to pitch in. If he doesn’t, he’s ticketed for the bullpen and I’ve got him ranked too high.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
Birdsong lost the Spring Training rotation battle to Landon Roupp and ended up going to the MLB bullpen, where he shined to start the season. That’s not great for the Hobby, but with injuries and underperformance in the Giants rotation, Birdsong has made three consecutive starts as of writing, and they’ve all produced good results. He’s limited the walks and gotten at least roughly a strikeout per inning over those three starts. My concern remains though - his fastball in those three starts were just average by Stuff+ metrics. There’s still an SP3 potential on the strength of his secondaries if he can manage his fastball. If he can turn his fastball into a consistently effective pitch, then he is a locked in SP3. I’ll keep him ranked in Tier 3 with the following caveat - the variance is still really high here, and I wouldn’t recommend spending money on Birdsong’s cards because of that, unless you’re a Giants fan like me. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Raymond Burgos (P, 26)
This is going to be a short write-up - a lefty reliever that was cut loose by the Giants in August and not picked up by any other MLB org is not a good sign there’s much of a future left at the MLB level for Burgos. He debuted back in June of 2024 for San Francisco, pitched one inning, and then has been toiling in the minor leagues ever since until he was let go. A sinker, sweeper, change-up guy from a low arm slot, maybe he hooks back on for another season or two with a team in desperate need of a lefty bullpen arm, but for the hobby this is about as uninteresting as a rookie card can get. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
STL
Tier 3
Thomas Saggese (SS, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series:
A casualty of the Cardinals not fully buying into the need to rebuild in 2025 was that players like Saggese didn’t get full reps. He spent almost all of April in St. Louis before heading back to Triple-A for all of May and most of June. In late June he returned to the big league club and spent the rest of the year there for a total of 82 games and 295 plate appearances. It was pedestrian results and not what I was hoping for when I put Saggese in Tier 3 for 2025 Topps Series 1. Saggese still had a modicum of hype back in February, but the air is completely out of the balloon at this point. I still think he’s a .260 - .280 hitter that will pop 15-20 home runs and steal 10 bases with full playing time. That’s sort of boring, but it’s enough to get Tier 3 pricing on a collectible team. At the moment, he’ll be treated as a Tier None player because of the .258/.299/.352 triple slash with two home runs and three stolen bases at the MLB level in 2025. I’m keeping him in Tier 3, but realize that it’s more of a long term ranking than a short term one, and his lack of an elite tool doesn’t justify spending on his cards even if they seem like a bargain.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Saggese is an offense first second baseman that needs to be hidden defensively. He’s a bit of a free swinger, posting above average swing rates both inside and outside the zone. His ability to put the bat to the ball means it doesn’t overly hurt him, but his small MLB sample exposed that approach. As he gets used to MLB pitching, I expect him to tone down the amount of swinging he does, and you end up with a decent offensive player that makes more than his fair share of contact and can put some meatballs over the fence. That should lead to something like a .260 - .280 hitter with 15 - 20 home runs and 10-ish stolen bases. A nice real baseball player, but not really an exciting one. There’s enough here for a Tier 3 ranking, but I don’t see a ton of upside and wouldn’t go crazy for his cards.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
Nothing much has changed other than Saggese proving once again in a small sample size at the MLB level that he is a competent hitter, but the Cardinals can’t or won’t find a regular spot for him on their major league roster. The argument I suppose is the defense, as I mentioned back in February. I did say I don’t see a ton of upside, but I think that may have been a bit conservative. He continues to look like an above average hitter that could pop a .270 - .290 average with a shot at 20 home runs. On a collectible team, that could lead to some Hobby goodness. I don’t think that's the median outcome, but I’m starting to see how that is a possibility. If his cards are cheap enough, I might consider picking them up. That’s not without risk, though - the old adage of believing what MLB teams are telling you by their moves may be a message worth heeding. The Cardinals are telling us Saggese isn’t ready for a full-time job, and that leads me to keep his Tier 3 rank from Series 1. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Tier None
Michael McGreevy (P, 25)
2025 Topps Update Series:
A 2025 Topps Series 1 rookie, my opinion from February is exactly the same today as it was back then. He’s a back-end innings eater that limits walks and throws a deep arsenal of six pitches to keep hitters off balance. Each pitch is a mixed bag of effective and not effective with all of them in the average or below average velocity bands. The 25-year old split the season between Triple-A and the MLB level - if the Cardinals continue down the path of their rebuild, I expect McGreevy to become a mainstay of the rotation. On a first division team, he’s more of a depth option, but on a second division team, like the Cardinals are trending towards, he’s a stabilizer. It’s a nice real baseball profile, but not for the Hobby.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
McGreevy, outside of a one and two thirds inning stint at the Complex to start his pro career, has never had a K rate above 23%. That low strikeout rate essentially caps his upside for the Hobby, and really all three facets that I continuously harp on - real baseball, fantasy baseball, and the Hobby. His best asset is that he consistently puts up innings and limits hard contact. A perfectly fine pitcher to have at the back end of your rotation to soak up the innings and give your team a shot to win if the offense comes to play, but is rarely likely to out and out win games for you. This is the epitome of the solid but unspectacular pitcher, and that doesn’t move the Hobby needle. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Matt Svanson (P, 26)
Svanson was one of the more effective rookie relievers this season pitching to a 1.94 ERA with a 29% K rate and a sub 9% walk rate. Did he get a bit lucky while doing that? Yes. But in small sample sizes like most relievers end up with, it’s hard to know whether he is just a BABIP suppressor or living on the right side of variance. His sinker, sweeper, and cutter arsenal all provided above average to great results, with Stuff+ being a particularly big fan of his 87 mph sweeper. When he’s hitting the edges of the zone with the sinker, you can see how he’s the potential next man up to take over the closer role if they don’t bring in any competition this off-season. I doubt they do unless they bring back old friend and unrestricted free agent Ryan Helsley, who they traded away at this season’s deadline. There’s a world where Svanson has some Tier 3 relevance as a high leverage closer in the future, but for now, we can simply watch list him and hold any cards we end up with if we feel like gambling. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
TBR
Tier 3
Chandler Simpson (OF, 24)
Simpson is the fastest man in baseball. You would think that being 24, batting .295, and swiping 44 bags would make Chandler a chase (pun intended), but unfortunately the batting average was pretty empty (.671 OPS), and he is somehow in the 11th percentile on Savant for OAA (range) for outfielders. If Simpson was a capable outfielder, he would surely have some value given the speed and ability to get on base, even without impactful contact. Unfortunately, this is closer to a Terrence Gore than even a Billy Hamilton situation, as Hamilton at least filled highlight reels with his glove. I do think Simpson has some appeal given his age and the fact he has an 80 grade tool. At the end of the day, collecting cards does come down to fun first and foremost, and Simpson is absolutely a fun player. He just isn’t a super valuable real world baseball player. He will have a bit of value, and definitely deserves to be excluded from the “Tier None” glob. If he can start impacting the ball, he would easily be Tier Two, but I can’t confidently say that seems likely. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Jake Mangum (OF, 29)
FORMER MET ALERT! Mangum was taken out of Mississippi State by the Mets in the 4th Round of the 2019 MLB draft. An older draftee, (23 when he was drafted), Mangum really got a raw deal with the 2020 Minor League Season being cancelled. He was 25 before his first full year in the Minors, which put him behind the 8 ball for gaining any real prospect hype. Mangum set the SEC record for hits in college, and wrapped up his career with a .357 batting average. Mangum played well in the Mets organization, but again was just too old to really be a priority. He was traded to the Marlins organization after 2022, and hit .298 in AAA for the Marlins organization before being traded to the Rays for Vidal Brujan and Calvin Faucher. Mangum hit .317 for AAA Durham in 2024 and was added to the 40 man roster after the year. He finally debuted for the Rays in March, and had a nice little season, posting a 1.7 WAR over 405 ABs. He had a .697 OPS with 27 steals, so should carve out a role as a fourth outfielder for a while moving forward at the very least. Mangum will probably have some appeal as a former elite college player, but his MLB outlook is not particularly great. The college career probably makes him a Tier Three guy (relative to the rest of the watered-down checklist), but Tier None wouldn’t be an unfair placement either. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Tier None
Eric Orze (P, 28)
Orze is a former Met, so I feel duty-bound to write more than I should. If you’re not a Mets or Rays fan, here is all you need to know before scrolling onward- Orze is a reliever who turned 28 in August. He had a nice year for the Rays, putting up a 3.02 ERA in 41.2 IP with a little under a strikeout per inning (40) and probably a few too many walks (19). Little to no Hobby appeal. Orze is a cool story- while pitching in College at the University of New Orleans, Orze was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 2018 at age 20, and later skin cancer as well. Orze defeated both and after a 2 year hiatus returned to the mound in 2020 and pitched his way to getting drafted in the much abbreviated (5 round) 2020 MLB draft by the Mets. It is a great story, and making the Majors in any capacity is an inspiring outcome from Orze- much less having a nice bit of success as a reliever. He should retain a spot in the Rays pen moving forward and is a guy you would have a hard time not pulling for. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Jamie Westbrook (2B, 30)
Westbrook is listed on the Rays checklist despite not appearing in a game for them at the Major League level this season, with all 116 of his appearances for the organization coming at AAA Durham. Westbrook posted 21 games for the Red Sox last season, popping 2 home runs and not much else for a .584 OPS and going 6-40. Westbrook actually had an OPS of .897 across 117 games for the Yankees AAA squad in 2023, and a .819 OPS in 102 games for the Woo-Sox (Boston AAA) in 2024, but he failed to appear in a game for the Rays this season and his AAA numbers took a step back. Not sure if he’ll appear in a Sox jersey or a Rays jersey, but I have an inkling nobody is still reading this blurb by now. He’s 30, 5’ 7”, and that’s a wrap on his profile for collectors. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Hunter Bigge (P, 27)
Bigge made it to the Majors last season at 26 as a reliever for the Cubs before landing in the Rays organization, posting a 2.60 ERA across 19 appearances (17.1 IP). He saw continued early success in his 15 IP in 2025, posting a 2.40 ERA with 12/5 K/BB in limited action. In one of the more unfortunate stories in baseball this year, in June Bigge was in the dugout while on the IL with a lat strain and took a foul ball to the face and got stretchered off the field. He did not appear again after that, but from what I can find he seems to be OK for the long term. Keeping it to on-field, he seems like the typical Rays success story- an older reliever coming up and contributing out of the pen despite lacking in the strikeout department. Obviously a guy to root for after what happened this year, and I will definitely keep an eye out for him next year. Unfortunately, not really much hobby appeal. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
TEX
Tier 3
Kumar Rocker (P, 25)
2025 Topps Update Series:
It’s getting harder and harder to figure out Kumar Rocker. Every year I get more concerned that Rocker can stick in a rotation, despite short bursts of looking like he could almost be a frontline starter. Is he a one pitch reliever? And that one pitch, a slider, seems to be trending downwards? Does he figure out how to get either his sinker or fastball to not be a negative pitch? If not, he’s definitely headed to reliever or back-end starter - a far cry from the back to back years of first round draft pedigree. The cutter looks good, but that’s not a foundation of a starting pitcher in most scenarios. That’s the foundation of a reliever. The stats don’t look great either. A sub-20% K rate, a 5.73 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and among the worst in barrel and hard hit rates. While I’ve been focusing on the concerns and questions I have, mostly because I have been quietly more pessimistic than most since Rocker has reached pro ball, there is a rosier picture. He’s pitched barely more than 75 innings at the MLB level. He’s only 25 years old, and has a prototypical starter’s frame. He has a deep arsenal, and at one point, his slider flashed elite characteristics that paired well with his fastballs. He’s a very well known name with draft and prospect pedigree. There’s definitely Tier 2 upside, and Tier None downside. I’m going to split the difference and rank him in Tier 3, but this is a major caveat emptor situation in my opinion, and one I’d try and avoid altogether.
2025 Topps Series 2 write-up:
I’m not really sure what to think of Kumar Rocker. I’ve gone from one side of the fence to the other side of the fence to sitting on the fence (ouch). The reason for that is due to the fact that he is one of the more hyped pitching prospects of the last 5 years or so, and I’ve never viewed him as essentially a top 5 pitching prospect that his believers have espoused. I get it - his slider can be elite with its two plane break and his ability to throw it for strikes as well get whiffs with it. The concern is the rest of his arsenal. Right now he’s primarily pairing it with a 95 mph sinker, followed less frequently by a 95 mph four seam fastball. A change-up and a curveball round out the arsenal, but they are more show-me pitches rather than actual useful tools at the MLB level, at least for now. Neither fastball is working so far at the MLB level - the swinging strike rate for the four seamer is sub-6% and the sinker is sub-3%. Hitters can essentially spit on the slider and wait for either heater in the zone. That doesn’t always work because Rocker will just throw slider after slider and mow down a lineup, and that’s when we get our hopes up that Rocker will be a future ace. Until we see Rocker take the next step with the rest of his arsenal, as well as handle lefties a bit better, we’ll likely continue to see inconsistent results. If he never figures it out, there’s still a high leverage reliever role to fall back on, which is a nice-to-have scenario for real baseball, but not great for the Hobby. For now, the name value is going to continue to provide more value than his results would indicate, and I would take advantage of that by selling high if the market is buying. If not, I wouldn’t mind holding anything I end up with, but as a risk averse collector, the Rocker risk is too high for my appetite to hold long term. I would not be a buyer, but I still feel obligated to rank him in Tier 2 given his name value and potential for taking that next step that would justify this level of interest. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Alejandro Osuna (OF, 23)
Osuna’s hit tool metrics look great. His results in his first taste of the majors do not. I’m going to go with the idea that it was because the Rangers had Osuna debut out of necessity rather than readiness. He’s played over four times more games at the MLB level (63) than he has at Triple-A (15). Even lacking the proper seasoning, as I mentioned, Osuna was still able to post a 12% walk rate, a sub-20% K rate, a fantastic 91% zone contact rate and an 84% overall contact rate. The dude can simply put the bat to the ball. He’s also got 80th percentile sprint speed in the tool kit, but has yet to figure out how to steal bases without getting caught (55% success rate at the MLB level). If there was a hope of above average power, I’d be considering Osuna for Tier 2. To his credit, he did hit 18 home runs in the minors in 2024. However, he only was able to eke out four home runs in 2025 between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors. None of the power metrics look especially promising, and he probably lands in average power territory at maturity - something like 15 home runs give or take. A .212/.313/.278 triple slash with two home runs and five stolen bases is likely going to keep collectors away. I would not mind cheap shares of Osuna with my eyes wide open that the Ceiling is capped unless we see a profile change that unlocks unexpected power. There are tools to be excited about, especially the hit tool, which gets him into Tier 3 for me. As long as his cards are cheap, I would be throwing some small share of my budget his way. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Tier None
Marc Church (P, 24)
After debuting at the end of 2024 in game 161 of the Rangers season, the pre-season rumor mill of who would end up as the Texas closer included Church’s name. He did end up making the Opening Day roster, but Luke Jackson was the winner of the battle for the closer role. After pitching just over 25 innings in 2024 due to rotator cuff issues, you’d hope that Church would have a healthy 2025 so that he could be in contention for the closer role if Jackson and other bullpen vets faltered. The second part of that sentence came true, but the first part did not. I couldn’t find a lot of clarity on the issues Church dealt with, but it seemed to be shoulder and oblique issues to just 12 innings in 2025. At this point, it’s anyone’s best guess on what Church is as a reliever. At his best, he’s a high whiff guy with his two pitch mix of a mid-90’s four seamer and mid-80’s slider. If he can limit the walks, which he has not done in his minimal innings at the MLB level, and he can stay healthy, he’s potentially part of the future closer mix in the Texas bullpen. Those are two big “if’s”, and when it comes to relievers and the Hobby, even one “if” is typically enough to drop them into the Tier None bucket. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Daniel Robert (P, 31)
An older reliever that debuted in 2024 with Texas, Robert was DFA’d in May and ended up being acquired by the Phillies for minor league outfielder Enrique Segura. Robert bounced between Triple-A and the MLB bullpen for Philadelphia before going on the IL at the beginning of September with a forearm strain. Robert has decent strikeout stuff, but was unable to limit the free passes while up with the big league club. That’s probably why he was an up and down, roster fringes sort of player. I’ve yet to see any news that Robert’s forearm strain has turned into surgery, but forearm strains more often than not are a precursor to going under the knife or leading to another arm injury down the road if surgery is avoided. In a best case scenario, Robert gets fully healthy in the off-season and is a use-able middle reliever in the Phillies (or some other team’s) bullpen in 2026. That’s just not interesting enough for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Blaine Crim (1B, 28)
I was in on Crim back in 2023 when he had his 1st Bowman, thinking he was more than just your typical Justin Bour, second division 1B/DH profile that gets about 4-5 years of MLB opportunities before heading overseas. Mostly that was because Crim will limit the strikeouts by virtue of making quite a bit of contact for someone that is thought of as a 1B power hitter type. While he does have a better profile than Bour and is probably somewhere in the comp range of Luke Voit and C.J. Cron, it’s just not enough to move the needle Hobby-wise. He did end up in Colorado after the trade deadline when the Rangers needed the 40 man spot for trade acquisition Merrill Kelly and decided to attempt to pass Crim through waivers. He didn’t immediately get an MLB roster spot, but by mid-September he got the call-up and at least he did not go hitless like he did in his 5 game debut with the Rangers in May. It wasn’t great in Denver, but it wasn’t terrible either as he was able to club 5 home runs in just 15 games. The K rate at 36% was the glaringly bad piece of that puzzle even if it was a super small sample and is not in line with his minor league results. With Michael Toglia and recent waiver pickup Troy Johnston clouding the picture of near-term 1B reps in Colorado, it’s tough to project Crim getting enough at bats to get to the 30 home run level that you would hope for in that home park. If he does somehow do that as a short side platoon, then Tier 3 upside is feasible. For now, it’s better to spend money elsewhere and sell on in-season hot streaks if you do end up with his cards, especially with those cards being in a previous team’s uniform. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Gerson Garabito (P, 30)
In the second half of the 2010’s Garabito was on the fringes of Royals prospect lists as a diverse arsenal back-end starting pitcher type. The Giants gave him a shot as a minor league free agent in 2021 after the pandemic, but cut him loose after the season and that looked like it might have been it for Garabito’s dream of getting to the majors. He logged a few seasons in Winter ball and the Rangers picked him up on a minor league deal leading into the 2024 season. He made his debut all the way back in May of 2024, getting a start in his first appearance, and then pitching out of the pen whenever he was up on the MLB roster. He was still starting whenever he was back down in the minors, which was through June of 2025. At that point, the Rangers cut Garabito loose and he headed to South Korea to pitch for the Samsung Lions of the KBO. He pitched pretty well for the Lions, to be fair, but he’s unlikely to get another shot at the MLB level as his stuff just doesn’t fool enough hitters. He fills up the zone, and if the stuff isn’t good enough, then it’s tough to have sustained success. Congrats on Garabito getting a rookie card at 30 years old, but this is one of the easiest Tier None rankings in the product. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
TOR
Tier None
Mason Fluharty (P, 24)
The 24 year old lefty became a relied-upon piece of the Jays bullpen this year en route to an AL pennant. Fluharty was generally solid, fulfilling a necessary role as a lefty in the pen albeit without any eye popping numbers (really in either direction). Fluharty posted a 4.44 ERA over 55 appearances (52.2 IP) with 9.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 and logging a single save. The Savant page is actually pretty interesting, and adds some positive context that isn’t really visible in the surface stats. Fluharty limits hard contact very well (95th percentile average exit velo, 95th percentile hard hit rate), walks way too many guys (10th percentile @ 11.2% BB rate), and his xERA of 3.20 (82nd percentile) beats his true ERA by more than a full run. He was solid as a reliever through the minors, but the immediate post draft reliever designation prevented him from having any prospect status. Honestly, there could be something here. He’s a useful piece on an excellent team, and should firmly be pencilled in as a reliable guy out of the pen moving forward. It isn’t particularly exciting and I don’t want to paint too rosy of a picture here, but there is potential for Tier 3 upside at some point in the future. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
Braydon Fisher (P, 25)
Fisher was a 4th round pick of the Dodgers in the 2018 MLB draft out of high school, and landed in the Jays organization in 2024, debuting with the big club after shining in the pen at AAA Buffalo. Fisher was a revelation for the Jays, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over 50 innings on the nose, comprising 12 opener appearances and 40 traditional relief appearances. Fisher posted a 62/19 K/BB rate. Fisher leans heavily on a slider and a curve per Savant, making up 75% of his pitches this year. I figured this was likely one “slurvey” type breaker, but there is a 5 MPH difference between the two and the curve features some serious drop. He gives up quite a bit of fly balls, but it didn’t bite him this year. All in all, he had a really nice season as a reliever this year. A valuable real life piece for sure, but not sure there’s much appeal here. With a fastball being used only 22% of the time and sitting around 95 MPH, it is hard to see closer potential which zaps the last real hope for collector value there. He’s a fringe Tier Three guy, but I’m gonna put him in Tier None for the time being. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Paxton Schultz (P, 27)
The third and final reliever for the Jays in this product, Schultz is certainly the least appealing of the options here. Turning 28 in January, Schultz posted a 4.38 ERA across 13 appearances (2 starts) and 24.2 IP with some decent strikeout numbers (28), and a fairly ugly WHIP (1.42). Schultz appeared just once for the Jays after June 28th, a relief appearance in late August. There is a clear ability to go multiple innings here as an opener or bulk reliever which has some real world value to a team, but it seems that he is pretty low in the organizational pecking order. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, and despite boasting a 4 pitch mix it seems that there is no true put away pitch to speak of. Not much to see here. - Will Jarvis
(Base Only)
Alan Roden (OF, 25)
Roden was one of those guys you hear about as a “deep sleeper” in so many fantasy pre-season articles and podcasts that the general consensus eventually expects him to be something he just isn’t. The former third rounder went pretty nuts in Spring Training and forced his way onto the opening day roster. One of this year's pre-season industry darlings, Roden struggled in 113 plate appearances (.589 OPS) for the Jays and was ultimately traded to Minnesota, where the numbers got even worse (.463 OPS in 40 PA). The Savant page, lacking percentiles because of a lack of plate appearances, shows a lot of blue. As an older (will be 26 in Spring Training) and stockier build guy (5’ 11”, 215), I just don’t really see any appeal to Roden unfortunately. Wouldn’t entirely rule the guy out right now but it’s a bit tough to see any value even if you squint as hard as possible. - Will Jarvis
(Both)
WSN
Tier 1
Dylan Crews (OF, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series:
A lost season where Crews spent almost three months on the IL due to an oblique strain leaves me questioning how to approach cards of the former 2nd overall pick in the 2024 draft. I’ve always viewed Crews as a floor guy propped up by prospect and draft pedigree. When a bad season happens, collectors jump ship fast. And overall, it was a bad season of 85 games - he posted a triple slash of .208/.280/.352 for a wRC+ of 77. It did come with 10 home runs and 17 stolen bases, so there’s a bit of a silver lining there. Crews doesn’t profile as someone that will sell out for power, but his speed, athleticism, and barrel control should all contribute to him ending up as an impact bat and a core player to the young Nationals foundation. In the short term, I can’t help but think the Hobby will treat Crews as a Tier 2 type of player. I probably should rank him there, but I’m going to stick to my guns and keep him in Tier 1. The 2025 Dylan Crews experience, in my opinion, is an outlier that we can throw out. I expect to see him hitting .280 - .300 with 20 home runs and 30-40 steals on a regular basis over the next 5 years, and see his cards be in that low end of the Tier 1 player price bucket. The Ceiling may never be there, but the floor sure is, and if you can buy the dip on Crews without going overboard, I’d have no qualms with that.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
Crews is one of those classic 5 tool guys who can do everything well with no real weaknesses in his game. He can hit for average and get on base, he can hit for power, he can steal bases, and he’s a plus defender at any spot in the outfield. Like many rookie hitters when they debuted, he didn’t exactly crush it, and a lot of that was the usual story of being challenged by MLB-level breakers and off-speed pitches. The only pitch types he had positive success against were the fastball and cutter in his 31 game MLB sample. I expect as time goes on that this will normalize as Crews gets accustomed to advanced pitching and how he’s being attacked at the plate. At his peak, he should be a perennial All-Star with a high batting average, a bunch of steals, and enough home runs for it not to be a negative. I’m not sure he’ll regularly hit much more than 25 in a season, but I don’t think we’ll see too many years where that total doesn’t start with a “2”. Given his draft pedigree (2nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft) and a fair bit of Hobby hype, he’s an easy decision to include in Tier 1 with one of the highest floors in the product. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
James Wood (OF, 23)
2025 Topps Update Series:
It was a tale of two halves for James Wood. He absolutely crushed the first half of the season - his line was .278/.360/.543 with 24 home runs, 12 stolen bases, 14% walk rate, and an acceptable 28% K rate for a wRC+ of 150. Visions of a 40/20 season and a potential top 10 hitter seemed more than realistic. The second half of the season saw the walk and K rates go in the wrong way and everything followed suit. He had a triple slash of .223/.301/.388 with 7 home runs, 3 stolen bases, 10% walk rate and a scary 39% K rate for a wRC+ of 93. He particularly struggled against the change-up and the sweeper and he stopped lifting the ball. It looked like the league adjusted to Wood, and he did not adjust back. Even with the Jekyll and Hyde season, Wood is a Tier 1 talent, which is where I had him back in 2025 Topps Series 1. Will it be a smooth ride moving forward back to Tier 1 results? Probably not. Would I recommend buying the dip? Absolutely. Light tower power simply does not grow on trees.
2025 Topps Series 1 write-up:
While teammate and fellow 2025 Topps Series 1 rookie Dylan Crews has the highest floor in the product, James Wood has the highest Ceiling in the product and I don’t think it’s particularly close. At his peak, he could be flirting with the 3/4/5 ratios - a .300+ batting average, .400+ OBP, and a .500+ slugging. Add in 30+ home runs and 20+ steals and you’ve got the potential for a top 10 player in the game. All of my exuberance does come with a couple notes of caution around his hit tool. In his 79 game debut, mostly as a 21 year old, he was way too passive (38% swing rate), he went opposite field rather than pulling the ball way too much, his contact rates were subpar, his K rate was close to 30% (28.9% to be exact), and his ground ball rate and associated launch angle were really bad. Those are all things that I think are fixable with time and development, and he’s got the foundation to work with to make those improvements. It may not happen overnight, and if it doesn’t, I’d be happy to buy low on any of his cards whenever they dip. - Joe Lowry
(Both)
Tier 2
Daylen Lile (OF, 22)
I’ve always been a fan of Lile since I first did a deep dive back for 2021 Bowman Draft. There were conflicting reports with Lile’s offensive profile during draft evals - some thought of him more as a power speed profile while others saw him as a hit and speed profile. What I was able to see of his video in that deep dive left me very positive in regard to his hit tool. I felt like there was some power potential, but probably nothing beyond above average. On the other hand, the hit tool looked like a future plus weapon. After losing time early in his pro career do to a TJ surgery, Lile came back strong, leading to his MLB debut in late May of this season. After a quick trip back to Triple-A, Lile was back on the MLB roster in mid-June and his play made it impossible for the Nationals to send him back to the minors. In 91 MLB games at the age of just 22, Lile hit .299 with nine home runs and eight stolen bases, good for a 132 wRC+. What really stands out are the home runs, even if one was of the inside-the-park variety. He was rarely cheated on those home runs - they were no doubters. For someone that was thought to have average at best power, this was eye-opening. If his debut season isn’t a mirage, we’re seeing a potential All-Star that can hit .280 - .300 and go 20/20. The only concern will be his arms strength in the outfield, which, for the Hobby, matters very little. I mean, do we care that Juan Soto has similarly poor arm metrics? Not saying Lile is Soto by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s fun to look at their statcast fielding metrics horizontal bar graph and they can almost be an identical overlay. Lile is easily a Tier 3 player after what he did in 2025 - the only question is if he deserves Tier 2 consideration. Given my long-term positive outlook on Lile, I’m pushing him up into Tier 2 and I would not hesitate to buy his cards on the cheap. I am looking at the glass half-full here, so there are some negatives to be aware of, especially on the power side of the equation. His exit velo, hard hit, barrel, and bat speed numbers are all well below what you’d like to see out of a 20 home run hitter. The glass half-empty argument is a valid one, at least until we see him be able to repeat what he did in 2025, and that would keep me from buying his cards if they aren’t cheap. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Tier None
Brad Lord (P, 25)
A prototypical back-end starter that fills up the zone with the best of them (55% zone rate) and limits hard contact, leading to a ton of ground balls (49%). That approach doesn’t result in a ton of strikeouts at just under 20%, and the overall results don’t look great. But a ground ball pitcher on a team that used an unsettled and pretend group of infielders in 2025 isn’t going to have BABIP in his favor. Lord has a four pitch arsenal although his change-up is almost exclusively used against left-handed hitters. The four seamer, sinker, and slider are the primary options, with the four seamer jumping way up in usage against lefties. None of his pitches really stand out, which is what keeps him in that back-end starter role that will need to eat innings, live on the edges of the zone, and get a bunch of soft contact. I shouldn’t end this blurb without the requisite mention that during the off-season between 2024 and 2025, Lord worked at Home Depot, primarily in the garden center doing heavy lifting of mulch and Christmas Trees and the like. A fun story I suppose if you ignore the fact that a professional baseball player that has yet to make it to the big league but is still part of an MLB organization has to work in retail to make ends meet. But sure, it’s character building I suppose, and if this baseball thing doesn’t work out, he’s got a diverse resume. Lord gets lumped in with the rest of the back-end starters in Tier None, unless you PC former hardware store employees. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Cole Henry (P, 26)
Prior to his Thoracic Outlet surgery in 2022, Henry, a second round pick of the Nationals in 2021 looked like a future mid-rotation starter. While the Nationals kept giving Henry opportunities to start in the minor leagues post-surgery, his command was not up to it. Since the surgery, he’s never had a walk rate under 10% and he’s often way above that number. In 2025, Washington finally ended the starting rotation dream and moved Henry to the pen full time which led to a quick call-up in mid-April. On a second-division team like the Nationals, Henry comfortably held a spot in the major-league bullpen all season long. He’s mostly ditched his curveball as he’s gone to a three pitch arsenal - a four seamer and sinker around 94 and a curveball. Against lefties, he mostly stops throwing the sinker as well. There’s not a whole lot to get excited about other than he might get high leverage innings simply by default in one of the least inspiring bullpens in baseball, at least as currently constructed. He gives up too much fly ball contact, walks too many hitters, and gets very little chase outside the zone. It was just his first full time season in a bullpen at any level, and he’s still young enough at 26 years old to potentially take another relevant step forward. But it’s still a bullpen arm on a team unlikely to compete in 2026, so I’m not even sure why I’m continuing to write more about him since the Hobby relevance is zero for now. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Robert Hassell III (OF, 24)
Will the real Robert Hassell III please stand up? After being the 8th pick overall in the first round of the 2020 MLB Draft by the San Diego Padres, the toolsy outfielder started to fly up everyone’s lists. By the summer of 2022, Prospects Live had him as the 11th overall prospect in baseball, and we weren’t alone. This was a bit of the magical AJ Preller pixie dust pumping his prospects' value and Hassell’s unexpected double digit power. It made him an attractive piece of the puzzle that San Diego sent to Washington for Juan Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. And the power sort of went poof, but the plate approach really was the tool that disappeared once he ended up in the Nationals organization. It’s all been a very inconsistent journey through the minors for Hassell - he can steal some bases, pop a few home runs, and play good outfield defense. But expecting any more than that is probably a fool's errand at this point. An everyday outfielder is still a possibility given his defense and speed, and he’s just 24 years old, so skill growth is definitely not out of the equation. That offensive skill growth is most likely to occur with the hit tool rather than the power tool. If that happens, he can get to the .280 - .300 hitter we’ve seen at various times in the minors. In his first 70 games at the MLB level, he was nowhere close to that as he hit .223 with three home runs and four stolen bases for a wRC+ of 58. Hassell is a known name, and has significant past prospect pedigree, which does speak to the possibility he is treated as a Tier 3 price-point in the Hobby. His inconsistency, lack of results, the downward trend in his power, and the potential for being more of a high floor, low ceiling, strong side platoon outfielder than an everyday player puts him into Tier None territory. I’ve almost always been on the side of selling Hassell, and I see no reason to jump off that take now, so I’ll tip the scales and put him in Tier None. - Unassigned
(Both)
Orlando Ribalta (P, 27)
Tall, lanky right hander with above average velocity and a four pitch mix looks the part of a potential high leverage bullpen arm, but we just haven’t seen it yet. There’s some question with his effectiveness against lefties, and he essentially ditches his sinker against them. The four seamer is the bread and butter pitch and sits 96. There’s some swing and miss in all of his pitches, but he’s looked like he’s toned it down to gain some command and control the past year or two. I’d keep my eye on Ribalta, but he’s also going into his age 28 season, so the clock will start to tick sooner rather than later. A Tier None arm with some middling interest in general, even if not really for the Hobby. - Joe Lowry
(Base Only)
Credit to TJStats for many of the rate stats we quote throughout the article
Discussion