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3 Up, 3 Down: An Arms Race- 9/24/25
3 Up 3 Down, Dynasty, Dynasty Articles

3 Up, 3 Down: An Arms Race- 9/24/25

Tom Gates highlights some Major Leaguers who have seen their value move up and down this season, which could provide a buying or selling opportunity for you.

  • Tom Gates by Tom Gates
    Tom Gates Tom Gates
    Drew Wheeler's favorite men's softball outfielder.
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  • September 24, 2025
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  • 10 min read
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The minor league regular season is over, so it's time to look at the big boys. I don’t personally rank major league players, so this is mainly based on perspective. While some of these players are mentioned in the up or down section of the article, I don’t think that this will be the only direction they will take.

3 Up 3 Down - Prospects Live
Prospects LiveTom Gates

One thing I like to do this time of year is prepare for next year. I think the easiest thing to do is to take shots on players who see their value increase immensely just by a new role. I’m talking about closers. Look at teams with older vets on expiring deals. See who the next man up might be. Or look at those teams that have traded their closer away this year, and their bullpen is in flux. I’ll also take shots on veteran closers who don’t have the job right now but will be free agents this offseason.  You won’t hit on many, but the ones you do hit on will pay off.

I’m throwing in a bonus player at the bottom of the article. He goes along with my strategy at this time of year.

(stats as of 9/21/25)

🔥3 Up

Riley O’Brien, RHP STL (MLB)

44.2 IP, 42 K, 2.01 ERA, 5 SV, 6 HLD

O’Brien was on my radar in the 2024 preseason, showing up often on my Twitter feed for good reason. His stuff had ticked up, especially the sinker. 

Riley O'Brien threw four sinkers that were 100.0+ MPH tonight pic.twitter.com/v7c0Ll0l68

— Kareem Haq (@KareemSSN) May 21, 2025

Unfortunately, injuries derailed his season, and he logged just eight rough innings with the Cardinals.

This year has been a different story. O’Brien’s mix of ground balls and swing-and-misses gives him intriguing upside. He leans on the sinker almost 50% of the time, and it’s a monster: 98 mph with tumble in on righties. It’s producing a one-degree launch angle and has yielded only two extra-base hits in 72 batted-ball events. Even with just an 11% whiff rate, opponents are hitting only .220 against it.

The secondaries are where he finishes hitters. His slider (30% usage) generates whiffs a third of the time and tunnels well with the sinker. It sits around 90 mph, giving hitters little time to adjust. The break isn’t massive, but the velocity gap off the sinker is enough to fool bats. The curveball (20% usage) plays similarly but slower, with more movement, and carries a 51% whiff rate.

Now healthy, O’Brien is producing solid numbers. With the Cardinals in a retooling phase, he could have a legitimate chance to claim the closer role. His competition right now is Kyle Leahy, who is having a solid year but not a lights-out arm. JoJo Romero is a lefty who only has a 9.6% K-BB rate.


Clayton Beeter, RHP WSH (MLB)

24 IP, 30 K, 4.5 ERA, SV, 7 HLD

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Tom Gates Tom Gates
Drew Wheeler's favorite men's softball outfielder.
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Tom Gates Tom Gates
Drew Wheeler's favorite men's softball outfielder.
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