This week’s focus is on minor league pitchers. I selected these names based on a mix of factors. Some are arms I’ve watched closely while covering the daily sheet, while others stood out based on their statistical performance. The pitchers in the "Three Up" section are ordered by my excitement about their performance. In the "Three Down" section, they're ranked by the size of the drop-off relative to my expectations.

3 Up, 3 Down - Prospects Live
Prospects LiveTom Gates

Three Up

Jonah Tong, RHP NYM (Double-A)

34 IP, 59 K, 16 BB, 2.12 ERA

Tong’s numbers have improved even over his impressive 2024 season. Per our report, he was topping out at 95 mph last year. Now, he’s hitting 98. The changeup looks more effective because hitters are gearing up for that extra velocity. His curveball is especially fun — it has shades of Tim Lincecum’s old hammer.

Another major reason for his surge? A significant jump in ground ball rate: 62.1% this year compared to 45% last year — a rate that would rank top-20 in the majors.
He’s succeeding with a diverse arsenal. Tong throws his fastball just under 60% of the time. It’s not his best pitch, but it sets everything else up. The changeup, coming in around 85 mph, is his second-most used pitch and has a K-BB% over 50%.
His slider and curve are his primary put-away pitches. The curve has big sweeping action and often induces pull-side grounders. The slider can mimic his change or flash a tight 12-6 break. There’s an 18 mph velocity gap between his fastball and curveball.

The results speak for themselves: just four home runs allowed since the start of 2024. With his elite swing-and-miss stuff and ability to keep the ball on the ground, Tong is a big riser this year.
He's currently ranked #117, but I will push for him to be a top 100 guy in June.