Size matters. It does, even if some people tell you differently. It's July, and the larger sample size might have changed our expectations of them. This week, I am pleased to discuss a Cubs prospect who has impressed me greatly and is currently flying under the radar. But, it's not all rainbows and sunshine. Two top arms I was very high are taking a dip. Mixed in all of that, I've got a new guy joining my ranks, and the nicest guy in the industry, Drew Wheeler, provides a very cromulent explanation on why he's the low man on a Red Sox prospect. Enjoy.

3 Up, 3 Down - Prospects Live
Prospects LiveTom Gates

3 UP

Manuel Pena, 1B, AZ (Double-A)

.275/.319/.466, 7 HR, 1 SB, 6.3% BB, 25.1% K

The Diamondbacks made Pena their top-paid signee in the 2021 international class. Baseball America’s scouting report at the time described him as having...

“...a controlled but aggressive swing with plus bat speed and the ability to spray line drives to all fields.” He received a 50 grade on hit, 45 on power, and 45 on speed.

Last year in High-A, Manuel Pena tallied 27 doubles and just four home runs. This season, especially of late, those doubles are starting to leave the yard. The power surge may be partially due to the hitter-friendly Double-A environment, but either way, Pena is forcing us to pay attention.

Since turning pro, Pena has been relatively quiet and off the radar for most prospect followers. The power hadn’t shown up, he was hovering around a .250 average, and although he attempted steals, he was caught too often to be a real threat.

Fast forward to June 2025: it’s shaping up to be the Summer of Manuel. While the batting average is still around .250, the power has arrived. In the 21 June games, Pena hit six home runs, five doubles, and a triple over just 81 at-bats. Walks are also trending up.

What held Pena back previously was his batted ball profile. He used a more linear, all-fields approach. This month, however, he’s generating more loft on pulled fly balls, and it’s translating into power. Under the hood, his in-zone contact rate has jumped by about 10%, and he’s become more aggressive on pitches in the zone. While he still chases too much, his O-contact rate is above average, which softens that flaw.

Pena has primarily played first base but has also logged time at third (53 innings) and second (9 innings) this year. He hasn’t played left field in 2025 after 69 innings there last season, but there’s some positional flexibility to note.

In fantasy, if the power is real, his bat will play at first base. Don’t count on many stolen bases—his 50% success rate in High-A likely earned him a red light. I’ve slotted Pena into my Top 450 prospects for July. I’m more skeptical of the power than the average, but either way, it’s time to keep tabs on him.

Pedro Ramirez, 2B/3B, CHC (Double-A)

.298/.358/.426, 6 HR, 19 SB, 8.2% BB, 16.1% K