I see a trend developing. I put someone in the “3 down” portion of the article, and they explode for a good week, ie. Travis Bazzana. To be fair, I did say that the power would show up at some point. I just didn’t expect it to happen right after I gave him a slight bump down in the rankings. Too bad the reverse jinx didn’t work for Andrew Painter.

3 Up, 3 Down - Prospects Live
Prospects LiveTom Gates

🔥 3 Up

Felix Reyes, OF PHI (Double-A)

.339/.370/.569, 14 HR, 12 SB, 5% BB, 15% K

July Ranking: Unranked

New Ranking: 242nd

Maybe it’s the hair. It could be the body type. Or the fact that he just hits line drives all over the place. Whatever it is, I see some J-Ram here. Reyes kind of came out of nowhere this year. I’m assuming injuries have slowed him down in previous years. There is limited information available on him, and a review of his game logs reveals that he hasn’t played a full season since signing in 2020.

Why the bump?

Let’s start with his hitting metrics. 

85% in-zone contact

22% whiff rate

54% swing rate

35% chase 

The chase is a little high but because he makes a lot of contact, it’s not hurting his numbers. 

Now let’s look at his batted ball profile

28% line drive rate

38% pull rate

33% opposite field hit rate

He’s profiling as a line drive hitter that sprays the ball all around, but when you see him get to his power, you can see there could be way more in the bag. His pulled home runs usually are long gone, and he has the power to also hit them out to right field. An approach change would unlock more power, but I’m not sure Reyes wants to change what he’s doing since he’s been so successful.

Reyes does have sneaky speed. I don’t know if that will continue as he moves through the system.

Projection

Drew Wheeler definitely has one eyebrow raised at the sudden offensive “explosion” from Reyes. I totally understand why he is hesitant. It’s hard to ignore what he’s been doing. Due to his age, there is a chance he will push the envelope and get a shot soon. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet, but might have to be added after this year.

The upside here is someone who hits for a high average that can hit 15-20 home runs. I think that’s inflated a little bit if he continues to play for the Phillies with that shorter right field porch. So, maybe we can see a .280 hitter with 15 home runs and seven stolen bases. It doesn’t appear that we can count on him having a high OBP.

He’s an interesting breakout, and with his age, he might be closer than we know. Nothing actionable yet.  

Charles Davalan, OF LAD (Single-A)

.500/.541/.735, HR, 3 SB, 8% BB, 13% K

July Rank- 180 consensus, 222 personal

New rank - 135 personal

Well, hello, Charlie! I don’t think you could get off to a hotter start. It’s way too easy for him at Single-A.

93% in-zone contact

8% chase

Yes, it’s only been a handful of games, but it’s ridiculous. The only negative here is his higher ground ball rate, but that could easily change as we get a larger sample from him.

Why the bump?

A lot has to do with his affiliation with the Dodgers organization. I probably should just bump every Dodgers minor league just for the jersey they wear. But this isn’t totally out of the ordinary for Davalan. At the University of Arkansas, he walked more than he struck out and slugged .561.

The floor is here. He’s someone who is going to hit the ball and get on base. If he can bring power and speed to the table, I think we are looking at a top 100 prospect pretty easily. Perhaps a Travis Bazzana-type profile?

Projection

Lucas Morel is the high guy on Davalan. I can’t get there yet. He technically isn’t doing anything that I haven’t seen before from him; he’s just doing it at a higher level. He’s now in a group of prospects that I’d be targeting based on their price. Alongside Davalan are Ralphy Velazquez, Alfredo Duno, Esmerlyn Valdez, and James Tibbs.