As the 2025 MLB Draft quickly approaches, the Prospects Live team wants to make your life as easy as possible. In this series of articles, I'll be providing team-by-team analysis of their recent draft trends, their available draft capital for 2025, any areas of the draft they've heavily targeted, as well as a few names in this year's class that might fit into their historically preferred archetype.
Max Ellingsen
This analysis isn't sourced for the upcoming year, nor is it a guarantee the organization won't pivot from what they've done in the past. Simply put, this article aims to provide an in-depth look at teams and their recent draft classes to try and decipher trends that could help uncover players your favorite team might be targeting. It's far from a perfect science, but I've done my job if it makes things easier to follow on draft day.
Chicago Cubs
- 2025 Bonus Pool Value - $9,636,800 (22nd)
- Top 100 selections - 17, 56, 90
A relatively standard draft spot for Chicago to be in, the Cubs find themselves with a middling pick in the first round and an overall lack of draft resources. This hasn’t proved to be a tremendous roadblock for them in the past, often finding talent regardless of how much capital they’ve been awarded, however it certainly makes their job just a bit harder. With as chaotic as this draft cycle has been, I’d imagine the Cubs will stick to their guns and wind up taking another collegiate player that fits their model-centric approach to player analysis.
2024 Draft Overview
Despite picking 14th in last year’s draft, the Cubs managed to land an excellent college bat in Florida State third baseman Cam Smith (slot). Though he’s already been flipped to the Astro’s, Smith proved himself to be a fantastic player, able to translate his loud exit velocities in college straight to the pros. They grabbed small school corner infielder Cole Mathis (slot) in the second, yet another player that was more “metrically inclined”, possessing a nice blend of plate discipline, bat to ball, and power in his offensive profile. They saved some money with third round prep shortstop Ronny Cruz ($106,000 underslot) out of Miami Christian, then opted for a larger swing with prep shortstop Ty Southisene ($400,000 overslot) in the fourth. The later rounds were kind to them as well, rounding out their class with guys like UCSB’s Ivan Brethowr ($20,000 underslot), prep outfielder Eli Lovich ($500,000 overslot), and high floor reliever Evan Aschenbeck, finishing up what could be a really solid class for Chicago.
2023 Draft Overview
This time opting for Maryland shortstop Matt Shaw (slot), the Cubs again went with a college infielder that possessed loud exit velocities in a premium conference, ultimately moving him over to the corner infield where his bat plays just fine. Comp C rounder Jaxon Wiggins ($300,000 overslot) had massive stuff in Arkansas, evidently massive enough to overlook both shaky command and missing the entire 2023 season with Tommy John surgery. It’s paid off well thus far for the Cubs as Wiggins looks like one of their better pitching prospects and has improved his command while maintaining his electric stuff. One of the better senior signs in the class, Josh Rivera ($150,000 underslot) saved them some cash in round three, and both fourth rounders Will Sanders ($10,000 overslot) and fifth rounder Michael Carico ($15,000 underslot) had some big fans around the industry. This class, however, was ultimately defined by 11th rounder Zyhir Hope ($250,000 overslot), a prospect that has skyrocketed up prospect boards since his departure in the Michael Busch deal a few years ago.
2022 Draft Overview
A bit of a deviation from their more recent classes, 2022 saw them bet on late season performance with right hander Cade Horton ($1,260,000 underslot) in round one. They ultimately landed another tantalizing arm in round two, taking top prep arm Jackson Ferris ($1,350,000 overslot) out of IMG academy, a move that landed them a second first-round caliber arm while staying at roughly slot value. Two more preps followed in shortstop Christopher Paciolla ($165,000 overslot) and right hander Nazier Mulé ($460,000 overslot), and fifth rounder Brandon Birdsell ($15,000 underslot) has turned into a really nice piece for this system. They took a few more smaller swings on high schoolers with Mason McGwire ($10,000 overslot) and Luis Rujano ($60,000 overslot) later in the draft, a theme consistently seen throughout Chicago drafts, however those are yet to pan out just yet. This class is largely defined by the play at the top of the draft with the tandem of pitchers, however it can’t be understated how impressive it was they managed to do so without tanking the rest of their classes budget. Though somewhat out of character, a sound play that paid off in the long run.
Early Round Demographics
The Cubs have coveted college performance early in recent years, ultimately taking a top performer from a large conference in each of the last three drafts. All three first rounders had loud carrying tools in their profile that popped on draft models and provided the Cubs with both a comfortable floor and potential growth from a more polished collegiate player. If they go with a bat, expect an exceptionally polished hitter with less concern on defensive utility; If it’s an arm, look for athleticism and massive stuff. After they land a college player or two, I’m nearly certain they’ll go for at least one high schooler with up the middle traits or the potential to start. I wouldn't be surprised if there’s more than one in the first five rounds, but I’d be shocked if there wasn’t at least one. After that, they’ll likely opt for more college players to try and afford the eventual prep player they’ll take in the later rounds. It’s not clockwork, but it’s pretty darn close.
Late Round Demographics
Chicago has done a fantastic job of landing late round talent, regardless of prep or college demographic. Outside of the obvious Zyhir Hope mention, I really think Eli Lovich has shown some considerable promise in his first taste of pro ball and ninth rounders Jonathon Long and Connor Noland both look like legitimate prospects in this loaded Cubs system. The Cubs obviously have a tremendous scouting division that’s closely aligned with their player development system, however I think their ability to blend the analytical component of scouting with their evaluation process has been a major component to their success. They’ve found athletes to insert into their system that ooze projection and sluggers that blend a feel to hit with raw slug in seemingly every round, and though I’m sure some fans are frustrated they moved on from some of these names rather quickly, it’s undeniable what this scouting department has been able to accomplish. Chicago is one of the best in the business.
Names to Know
Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas SS - Aloy seems like the type Chicago would covet. Loud EV’s, athletic frame, and plenty of production to match. There’s definitely a bit more concern with the hit tool here than I’m sure they’d prefer, but he checks a number of boxes.
Ethan Conrad, Wake Forest OF - Conrad has missed a lot of time this season with injury, however I’m not positive he would’ve been available at 17 had he played the entire year. The blend of bat to ball and pop here is right up their alley.
Gavin Kilen, Tennessee SS - Another player that I could definitely see in a Cubs jersey, Kilen has been one of the most polished hitters all season and performed at the highest level. If he’s still around for this pick, he’s certainly going to be in the conversation.
Tyler Bremner, UCSB RHP - If they do go with an arm, I think Bremner works well here. A great strike thrower with a good blend of projection and “right now”, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was an arm they’re targeting.
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