As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
The Reds have become an organization that optimizes pitchers at a well-above-average rate. They also acquire pitchers in the draft early and often, as their last two draft first-round picks have been pitchers Chase Burns (2024) and Rhett Lowder (2023). This system, especially at the top, is filled with three close to the significant arms who will factor in at some point with the Big League squad in 2025. They are also not averse to taking prep shortstops early and often in the draft, as Sammy Stafura and Tyson Lewis are cut from the same cloth, despite being drafted in different years. The Reds' heavy focus on pitching makes sense as Great American Ballpark is not a pitcher's best friend and developing arms who can help the big league squad as they try to be semi-competitive with their young core of hitters. The Reds front office has done a good job of signing and developing the international free agent market, as they have helped turn Elly De La Cruz into one of the faces of the league, and their most recent prized IFA signing garnering buzz is Alfredo Duno, who if it all clicks can be a middle of the order hitter who plays catcher. The Reds front office has done a good job and has an above-average farm system to show for it.
About Our Top 20 Lists
Prospects Live, led by its evaluating team & Director of Scouting Rhys White, is proud to begin rolling out its annual offseason system reports. The team combines industry feedback, our live looks, film, and available data to compile each org. We believe this effort has enabled us to present you, the reader, with our best possible view of the prospects in the organization.
We have constructed this list using the Overall Future Potential (OFP) scale. There is no perfect equation for ranking prospects or assigning value to them, but we believe this method is the best possible approach. Every prospect on this list has been graded based on the tried and true 20-80 scouting scale. An 80 is the highest tool and OFP grade on the scale, reserved for MVP-caliber players or tools. Conversely, a 20 is reserved for non-prospects (NPs). A 50 OFP falls in the middle, indicating our evaluators deem this player a future average major league player. Below the 50 OFP tier are the 45s and 40s, comprising a large majority of players on each list. These are specific-role players, such as platoon hitters, utility players, or low-leverage relievers. Above the 50 OFP tier are the 55s and 60s. A 55 represents a future above-average player, and a 60 OFP designation is reserved for future All-Star caliber players.
In addition to the tool grades and OFP, we will also include a 'Risk' associated with each prospect. We use this to better communicate to you, the reader, whether a grade is more aggressive or conservative in nature. The evaluation team has worked hard to apply both the grades and risk components to better illustrate how each individual prospect stacks up in their respective system and in the baseball ecosystem.
Burns lit the NCAA on fire during his three year career, showcasing some of the best power stuff we’ve seen in years and doing it under control. The 6-foot-3 Burns looks the part with a high-waist and well developed 6-foot-3 frame. He’s extremely athletic on the mound with a lightning quick arm. His mechanics are largely clean and simple, though there’s effort in his drive and follow-through. Burns throws from a higher 3/4 slot. The headliner here is the easy, upper-90s heater. Burns averages around 98 and with hellacious spin that creates above average carry that--along with the velocity--helps to miss plenty of bats for a fastball. Burns higher arm slot nullifies some of the spin based movement and creates more typical shape, rather than resembling a double-plus or elite offering. In part because of the hittable shape and Burns imperfect command, his fastball gets hit hard, especially by left-handed bats. It’s easy to imagine Burns becoming more intentional with fastball location and getting better results, but he’ll need to display that in pro ball. What makes Burns a surefire big leaguer and potential top of the rotation arm is his double-plus 2900 rpm slider. It sits in the upper-80s with a huge hook shape, making it nearly unhittable. The slider drops heavily late and also has above average gloveside break. It already profiles as one of the better breaking balls in the sport. Burns mixes in a steep power curveball with similar characteristics to his slider, though Burns does not have the same premier feel for it. It has plus characteristics and could be a key to defeating left-handed bats. Burns rarely uses his upper-80s changeup and its shape is inconsistent but it flashes plus potential with heavy fade and could be the true key to correcting his left-handed splits. Burns has the confidence to attack the zone which largely leads to success but his fastball is left hittable far too often, leading to most of the damage done against him. Burns' fastball will likely never be double-plus but some improvements with fastball location could turn him into a top-10 prospect in the sport. In the meantime, the inconsistency of his changeup leaves some platoon risk that could make Burns too exploitable to left-handed bats to be a top of the rotation starter. - Tyler Paddor
Dynasty Outlook
If not for Roki Sasaki, Burns would be the top pitcher in FYPDs. Going on average as the 5th player selected in FYPDs, Burns goes on average seven spots before Hagen Smith, who is largely considered the 1B to Burn’s 1A. The command questions and future ballpark might scare some, but his spring training debut (1 IP, 0 H, 3 K, 1 BB) showed the upside. Take him as high as 2nd in drafts where pitching is highly valued. - Taylor Corso
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
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As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
