Major League Baseball

Covered by Greg Hoogkamp                                                                                                                                     ‼️Sonny Gray, RHP STL (MLB)

9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

Gray was masterful on Friday night with his only blemish being a 5th inning single to Nolan Jones. Gray needed just 89 pitches to get 27 outs (a “Maddux”!), the fifth shutout of his career (first since 2015). Gray continues to age like fine wine, limiting hard contact while mixing his six offerings (no more than 21% for any pitch) with excellent command. He remains a trustworthy mid-rotation arm. 

Bryan Reynolds, RF PIT (MLB)

2-for-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

It appears as if Reynolds is having a down season, and while his strikeouts are a little high compared to his career average, he is actually performing very well under the hood. His 11.9% barrel rate and 48.4% hard hit rate would be career highs. Currently, his .238 average (.282 xBA) and .385 SLG (.523 xSLG) are not telling the whole story. Reynolds typically runs BABIPS well above .300 (last season .330) due to how hard he hit the ball, and he’s currently sitting at .295. This is a buying opportunity because positive regression should take place as the season progresses if he maintains some of these gains. 

Brandon Lowe, 2B TBR (MLB)

3-for-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, K

Here is another example of a veteran player making some skills gains on the other side of 30. As I cautioned in a previous version of the Daily Sheet, try and guard against personal bias when you are evaluating players; Lowe was one of the players I had written off a couple of seasons ago. This year, he has dropped his chase rate (-2.2% from 2024), raised his contact rate (+1.6% over 2024), and because of the extra balls in play, his average (up 29 points from 2024) and hard hit rate have climbed (+2.3%). I don’t think I am the only one to write off Lowe as an impact bat, so it might be worth checking in on the Lowe owner in your league to see what he might cost, there is value to be had here. 

‼️Jose Berrios, RHP TOR (MLB)

7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Berrios is simply a steady performer who gives you solid ratios each season; his 7 shutout innings on Friday was a very welcome performance for dynasty managers. When I was in Toronto last month, Berrios was dialed in with his entire arsenal vs the Athletics throwing 6 shutout with 9 Ks. What I noticed was he just simply attacked the strike zone with all of his pitches. He’s going to give up some hard contact, but he’s proven throughout his career that he will consistently outperform his expected stats. He’s another trustworthy arm for the middle of your dynasty rotation.

Gunnar Henderson, SS BAL (MLB)

4-for-6, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, K

A 4-hit night including a homer for Gunnar on a night where the O’s scored 22 runs. Everything looks really good for Gunnar this year except his slugging percentage; it’s mostly been due to a lack of optimizing his batted ball angles. His ground ball rate is a little bit higher than normal and he’s popped up more balls than he ever has. The good news is that it looks like he’s already made some adjustments because as each month goes by, his slugging percentage has risen steadily (April .413, May .450, June .476). I think it's a safe bet that July will be another step in the right direction. He’s still a stud.

Gary Sanchez, C BAL (MLB)

4-for-5, HR, 2B, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB

With Adley on the shelf, Sanchez is getting the reps behind the plate for Baltimore and he’s taking advantage. Friday night Sanchez had five batted balls over 100 mph including a 111.7 mph rocket over the left-centerfield wall in the 5th to give the lead to the Orioles for good. Sanchez is a good option to stream until Adley gets back from his injury. 

Colton Cowser, LF BAL (MLB)

3-for-4, 3 2B, 4 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB

Cowser seems to be getting back into the swing of things as he’s hit in 8 of 9 games raising his OPS from .655 to .838 over that span. June has been a good month for Cowser (.269/.329/.582, 5 HR) and he’s been a big reason why Baltimore is starting to turn things around. He won’t be a great source of BA or OBP, but you can count on the 25-homer power. 

‼️Nick Martinez, RHP CIN (MLB)         

8.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Martinez brought a no-hitter into the 9th inning where an Elias Diaz double ended his evening after 112 pitches. Martinez had a couple of rough starts in June that pushed his ERA over 4.00, but expect him to get back to his more typical mid-3.00’s ERA by the end of the season. Martinez will do anything to help his team win including pitching out of the pen his previous two outings (2 scoreless on the 21st and 1 scoreless on the 23rd). This sheet is all about trustworthy arms, you can trust Martinez. 

💣💣💣Spencer Steer, 1B CIN (MLB)

3-for-4, 3 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, K

A throng of dongs!?! Is that what you say? Steer launched two bombs off Padres starter Dylan Cease while his third came off reliever Yuki Matsui. Steer fits into the Isaac Paredes mold of a player who does an excellent job of maximizing his fly balls. He currently sports a 26.2% AIRPULL rate which is ideal for his home ballpark. With Jeimer Candelario no longer in the picture, Steer looks to be the everyday first baseman for the Reds going forward. 

🍔🍟Byron Buxton, CF MIN (MLB)

1-for-4, HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, BB, K, SB 

Buxton provides a combo meal (11.for dynasty owners on Friday night; he’s now up to 18 homers and 14 steals on the season. He’s always been an incredibly talented player (and the skills remain strong) but you have to count on getting hurt at some point. As long as you’ve insulated yourself with a solid OF backup option, you can ride this out with confidence. 

💣💣🍔🍟Trea Turner, SS PHI (MLB)

4-for-6, 2 HR, 4 R, 2 RBI, SB

Much like Gunnar mentioned earlier, Turner has warmed up with the weather. He’s currently hitting .307/.352/.564 in June with 6 HR and 6 SB and his game on Friday was his best of the season. Turner is the straw that stirs the drink in Philly and with Harper reportedly returning on Monday, this Phillies lineup could get rolling imminently. 

🍔🍟Kyle Schwarber, DH PHI (MLB)

1-for-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, SB

The beat goes on for Schwarber; he hit his 25th homer Friday night and is on pace to break 40 for the third time in his career. This might be one of his best seasons as he’s currently holding the second best OBP and third best SLG in his 11 years as a major leaguer. Schwarber’s 111.6 mph missile added insult to injury for the Braves as it made the score 11-0 and further distanced the two teams in the standings. . 

Nathaniel Lowe, 1B WAS (MLB)

3-for-6, HR, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, K

It’s been a difficult season for Lowe and he’s really regressed in the one thing he did well: crushing fastballs. Last season, Lowe hit .293 vs 4-Seamers while this season he’s hitting just .220. This isn’t a bat speed thing because he has above average swing speed, so it must be approach. Is he guarding against off-speed so much that he’s not able to get on top of velocity? Is he caught in between in a perpetual 2-strike approach? His results vs off-speed aren’t any better this year, so whatever is going on isn’t working. He’s not someone I am relying on in any leagues unless I am absolutely decimated by injury. 

Otto Lopez, SS MIA (MLB)

3-for-4, HR, 2B, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 K

Lopez has been hitting third for the Marlins recently and really taking advantage of the opportunity. He’s hitting .309 in June and has also been playing a lot more shortstop earning the trust of his manager. Lopez doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard (87.6 mph AVG EV), but he does put it in play (89.9% ZCon) at a high rate. He’s still just a deeper league option, but becoming more useful as we move forward. 

Triple-A

Covered by Will Thompson

Jhostynxon Garcia, CF BOS (Triple-A)

2-for-4, HR, R, 2 RBI

The Password continues to crush Triple-A pitching since his promotion, posting a 153 wRC+ in 31 games with Worcester. The power was basically non-existent to start the season in Double-A and has picked up right alongside the promotion. As exciting as the start has been, I think I’m lower on Garcia than most. His hard-hit rate is below average at 34% and his in-zone contact is concerning at 74.5%. The power isn’t something I question anymore, but I’m not sure if he’s going to make enough contact to be a big league starter eventually.   

🆕Spencer Jones, CF NYY (Triple-A)

1-for-5, HR, RBI, 2 K

Spencer Jones homered to dead-center in his first Triple-A at bat, showing off his double plus raw power. The contact issues have been well-documented here and that’s the reason why Jones was stuck in Somerset for almost a season and a half despite excellent production. The rest of his game is awesome, but a 57% in-zone contact rate in Double-A this season gives off the reddest of red flags. He’ll hit for plenty of power in Triple-A though.  

🔜Jurickson Profar, LF ATL (Triple-A)

2-for-2, 2B, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB

Profar is eligible to return from his 80-game PED suspension this coming Wednesday, but until then he’s been destroying Triple-A pitching on his rehab assignment (even though he’s perfectly healthy). Atlanta has struggled to get production out of LF so Profar will be a welcomed addition back into their lineup as the Braves try to make a push to convince their FO to buy at the trade deadline. 

💣💣Jeremiah Jackson, SS BAL (Triple-A)

3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

Jackson is someone who I was high on in the lower minors during his Angels days, but the hit tool wasn’t good enough despite the power-hitting middle infield profile. That’s all changed with Baltimore though and he’s gone from normally posting K rates near 30% to just 8% in 20 Triple-A games. I don’t think Jackson became a guy who just doesn’t whiff overnight, but with the power he has I’m a lot more intrigued. In a small sample with Norfolk he’s got a 40% chase rate which is a major problem, but Jackson is worth monitoring now and is still 25 years old. 

Andrew Painter, RHP PHI (Triple-A)

4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

I think most people expected Painter to totally dominate the minors right after TJ, but that’s not realistic. He’s still pitching well though and his curveball and changeup looked excellent yesterday. The command comes and goes with Painter but I expect that to be straightened out with more time in the minors. In my view, the Phillies are playing this perfectly with Painter. Be patient and let him get fully right in the minors and then unleash the weapon towards the end of the season and playoffs. Look out for Painter to be a huge bullpen weapon for the Phillies in October.