Short sheet today with only MLB and Complex games getting played.

Major League Baseball

Covered by Smada

Zack McKinstry, RF DET (MLB)

1-for-4, HR, 2B, R, RBI

Is the 30 year old McKinstry really breaking out or is this a mirage? Over 311 PA he’s hit 7 HR with 11 SB and a 129 wRC+ slashing .285/.355/.464. The plate discipline is pretty much the same on the surface, a tad more BB% at 9.3% to 8.1% career and 22.2% K basically in line with the last two seasons. He’s chasing less but other than that the contact/swing decisions are similar. The BABIP is high at .351 and the ISO up from career norms at .179. The Barrel% is pretty much in line as is the EV with average EV actually a little down from norm. Hard hit also in line. xStats paint a worse power profile but the xBA of .270 is still strong. The biggest adjustment is getting balls out of the air and on a line or on the ground. A 31.6% FB vs ~43% the last two seasons. It does look like there’s a stance change - more closed and wider stance than prior. Guessing an intentional change leaning into a more solid contact oriented approach (given results). Anyway, I think he’s been pretty fortunate and I’m guessing the 100 percentile LA Sweet Spot isn’t going to hold. Maybe he’ll continue an above average batting average and continue stealing some bags but if teams are able to adjust and find a hole it could end badly.

Roman Anthony, DH BOS (MLB)

3-for-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI

That’s HR #2 for Anthony, a 418 ft monster shot to dead center in Fenway. The slow start is now an above average one, with a 111 wRC+ through his first 102 PA. The early approach metrics look fantastic and all signs point to Anthony being a force in this league. Likely ends up a top 50 pick in redraft next season.

Ceddanne Rafaela, CF BOS (MLB)

1-for-4, HR, R, RBI

While Rafalea will likely always be a better real life player than fantasy asset, he’s pacing out for a 20/20 season. The reduction in K% has been huge, but it’s the added power that’s vaulted him into a new tier this season, matching his barrel total from last season in just 56% of the PA.

Janson Junk, RHP MIA (MLB)

6 IP, H, R (0 ER), 2 BB, 3 K

In mid-April Junk popped up in the PLIVE+ single season ranks as an early standout and wrote this:

At first you go OK, next, but then you look at the metrics and Junk is now throwing some... junk. From TJ Stats Statcast data, Junk is throwing a 94.6 mph FB with a 19.3 IVB and what looks like a new change up to round out his arsenal. Across three starts he's logged 15 IP and gotten 20 K to 1 BB. In his last start he went 6 IP with just 1 H and 10 K. Junk is certainly throwing better than he has previously. That Miami rotation is not going to be a difficult one to crack and I'd envision he sees a shot here soon.

It took a little while, but Junk got his opportunity and has run with it. Through 9 games and 4 starts he’s got a 21.1% K and miniscule 2.3% BB drawing a 3.12 ERA with good estimators (3.88 xERA, 2.00 FIP, 3.20 xFIP). That said, I'm a happy owner of Junk in multiple leagues and hope you took the plunge as well!

Agustin Ramirez, C MIA (MLB)

2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI

While the slash has come down to earth (.245/.291/.479) he’s still out here hitting bombs and now has 14 on the season over just 65 games. He’s already projected to be a 25 HR bat moving forward. As he grows in pitch identification and chase there’s some great runway to be a really really solid C1 in fantasy.

Noah Cameron, RHP KC (MLB)

7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, 7 K

Cameron’s been such a rock since joining the Royals rotation. 11 starts averaging 5.7 IP/S and a 2.56 ERA. He’s obviously overperforming the ERA estimators and the BABIP/LOB% will regress a little, but overall he’s looking like a reliable starter moving forward.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B MIL (MLB)

1-for-2, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB

Of course Vaughn hits a homer in his first game for the Brew Crew. Of course. The Triple-A numbers after the trade looked fine but not otherworldly. We’ll see if he can revitalize his career in Milwaukee.

Corey Seager, SS TEX (MLB)

2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB

Over the last 30 days Seager has gotten back to his old self, raking to the tune of a 167 wRC+ with 6 HR, walking more than he’s striking out. Please, please just stay healthy.

Complex Level

Covered By Alex Jensen

Ashly Andujar, SS COL (CPX)

2-for-4, 2B