After no minor-league season in 2020, I believe I can speak for all baseball fans when I say that it is an absolute joy to have it back in action in 2021. After all, prospects need game experience to progress and we have no idea what more time without said experience could have meant.
Since it has been almost two years since prospects participated in game action, interpreting the start of the 2021 season optimally is critical for dynasty fantasy league players. For starters, having some sort of statistical sense of where prospects now are in their development is important, especially since recently drafted or signed players have very little track record to speak of. Furthermore, being able to decipher which hot starts are more likely to sustain over a larger sample size can give you a great edge over your peers.
Although it is too early to update my dynasty prospect projections, I can use the foundation of them to speculate which prospects are increasing their overall projected value. For hitters, that means focusing on plate discipline metrics, which stabilize much quicker than others. Meanwhile, for pitchers, K-BB numbers, in addition to the ability to work later into starts (volume), is important. To top it off, if there is further information/context on a prospect, such as a swing/approach change, a pitcher’s increase in velocity, or this happens to be a continuation of a smooth developmental track, that was also taken into account. With that mind, these ten prospects are worth buying into immediately in dynasty leagues:
Stats As Of Weekend of May 21-23
2B/SS Yonny Hernandez, Texas Rangers
Model Rank: 106
Prospects Live Rank: N/A
Projections are always going to favor statistical performers compared to those “who look the part”. If you prefer to rely on the statistical side, Yonny Hernandez may be one of the premier undervalued assets.
Listed at just 5’9” and 140 pounds, Hernandez certainly isn’t the most imposing presence in the box. However, that hasn’t stopped him from performing at a high level. Not only has the 23-year-old been an above-average offensive performer, according to weighted-runs-created-plus, but he posted a .413 on-base percentage between High-A and Double-A. This season, he has continued that production, now in Triple-A (.464 on-base percentage).
An intriguing aspect with Hernandez is his plate discipline. He has more walks (253) than strikeouts (222) for his entire career, which indicates a very high floor from an on-base standpoint. That progression (24.6% BB, 10.5%) has only continued, especially when considering he has the second-lowest swinging strike rate (3%) in the entire minor leagues. Add in his stolen bases (47 in 2018, 33 in 2019, 9 so far this season), and you’re suddenly talking about a player with a tremendous on-base/speed combination. Sure, his power (career .056) ISO is incredibly limited, yet in 5x5 leagues, he’ll help you significantly in multiple categories. The greatest market inefficiency is a player with clear strengths that is marginalized or his one limitation, and that appears to be the case with Hernandez. Expect him to factor into the Rangers’ plans up the middle soon.
C Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets
Model Rank: 214
Prospects Live Rank: 113
As mentioned, the 2021 minor-league season is critical for those recently acquired with little statistical track record, which is exactly the case with Francisco Alvarez. Signed by the Mets out of Venezuela in 2018, the catcher only had 182 career professional plate appearances coming into this year, all of which were at rookie ball.
Thus, the 19-year-old’s hot start in Single-A has to be encouraging. So far, he currently possesses a 220 wrc+, which includes an absurd .571 on-base percentage. Considering that he’s definitely playing at his age level, if nor higher, that is an impressive start.
The best part about Alvarez’s start has been his plate discipline (25% BB, 10.7% K). His walk numbers were strong in rookie ball as well, and although he struck out much more, that is generally common for professional debuts. Thus, it’s much more reasonable to buy into his contact ability, especially since he’s regarded as having a quality “hit tool” and an advanced approach. If that is the case, and his power continues to develop, you’re talking about one of the better offensive catching prospects in the minors. Given the scarcity of the position, you’ll want to buy into him now before his stock accelerates too much more.
2B Vidal Brujan, Tampa Bay Rays
Model Rank: 16
Prospects Live Rank: 51
Wander Franco gets most of the attention in the Rays’ farm system, while Taylor Walls was recently promoted to the major-league team. However, there’s another prospect in Tampa Bay that projects to be quite the productive player.
That would be Vidal Brujan, who has been a prospect my model has been higher on than the consensus. Considering he has a lifetime .380 on-base percentage in the minors, that isn’t exactly surprising, especially since he has walked (197) almost as much as he has struck out (208).
Considering Brujan also has consistently been successful when it comes to stealing bases, you might be surprised that he isn’t already considered a premier fantasy prospect. Yet, with a 5’10”, 180 pound frame and not a lot of power production, there appears to be a concern about his ceiling. Naturally, thus far, he has posted a .317 isolated power (ISO) in 70 plate appearances in Triple-A.
Based on my research, it isn’t atypical for prospects to develop power later into their professional careers. Whether this is due to physical development or an approach change, the fact of the matter is that there is a strong track record of low-power, high on-base hitters developing enough power to be all-around offensive producers. If Brujan is the next in line and can be simply average from a power perspective, that’s an exceptional development considering his on-base skills and stolen-base abilities. Ozzie Albies has been one of the premier second basemen from a fantasy standpoint, and based on the developmental track, Brujan almost appears to be a carbon copy. I would anticipate him being potentially a top-ten dynasty prospect soon, and rightfully so.
OF Travis Swaggerty, Pittsburgh Pirates
Model Rank: 118
Prospects Live Rank: 152
I’ve generally found that smaller-school draft prospects in the first round are a much riskier proposition than those of bigger conferences, which makes a lot of initiative sense. Thus, when 2018 10th overall pick Travis Swaggerty got off to a slow start in professional baseball, there was reason to be concerned.
With Swaggerty, the concern was two-fold. For starters, his 22.1% strikeout rate was on the high end for a well-regarded prospect in High-A. Meanwhile, it wasn’t coming with much power (.116 ISO). Considering these were small problems, especially the power, at South Alabama, that concern was mostly justified.
Yet, Swaggerty’s power has never been a physical issue. Rather, his swing needed tweaking, as he posted a 49.3% ground ball rate in 2019. Thus, seeing that number down (36.7%) in 2021, which correlates with a major uptick in power (.220 ISO), is very encouraging. Meanwhile, despite an aggressive promotion to Triple-A, he’s also fared better thus far in terms of contact ability (16.4% strikeout rate). Yes, he’s hitting .200, but that is accompanied with an unsustainably poor .200 batting average on balls in play.
With better luck, Swaggerty’s plate discipline (12.5%) will manifest into a definite on-base threat who’ll hit at the top of the lineup and accumulate stolen bases, which holds a lot of value on its own. Add the power development, however, and that only becomes a greater reality. The profile is very similar to Cubs’ center field Ian Happ, which would be an overall success story in terms of his development.
OF Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
Model Rank: 93
Prospects Live Rank: 97
To be honest, I’m not sure there was going to be a more complex read statistically from the beginning of the minor leagues than Red Sox outfield prospect Jarren Duran.
Throughout his minor-league career, Duran has showcased his elite speed with exceptional stolen-base success, while he should also run high batting averages on balls in play. However, the power (.105 ISO in 2019) has consistently been lacking.
Yet, there was plenty of optimism moving forward for the 24-year-old, as he was cited for making a swing change following that season. Sadly, though, with no 2020 minor-league season, this is our first chance to see the new swing and approach change in action. The ground ball rate (35.3%) is down, the walks (13.9%) are up, and although he is striking out more (27.9%), that’s fine if his power breakout (.290 ISO) continues to prove to be legitimate. When judging production in small samples, adding in context is critical. When factoring that in, I’d want to continue to buy stock into him, particularly with an MLB debut on the horizon. It’s rare to find power, speed, and enough on-base skills, yet Duran looks likely to be able to provide that.
RHP Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
Model Rank: 232
Prospects Live Rank: 163
By now, I think it is safe to say that the trade that sent Chris Archer from the Rays to the Pirates is going to go down as one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. Not only was Archer not productive in Pittsburgh, but in return, Tampa Bay netted an ace in Tyler Glasnow, in addition to arguably their best offensive presence in Austin Meadows, each of whom had plenty of club control left.
Still, the rewards of the trade haven’t even yet been maximized by the Rays. Meet Shane Baz. The 12th overall pick out of high school in 2017, the righty has been a well-regarded prospect based on his ability to hit triple-digits with his fastball and his wipeout breaking ball. However, due to an organizational philosophy by the previous regime in Pittsburgh, he utilized more of a two-seam fastball when first in professional baseball, which isn’t optimal from a strikeout perspective. The Rays have supposedly reworked his arsenal to throw more up in the zone, but the 2019 results (25.4% K, 10.8% BB) weren’t great in 81 innings in Single-A.
Given how early he was into his pro career, however, it would have been silly to write up a player with the arsenal that Baz possesses. With that in mind, it’s not surprising to see him off to a remarkable start (36.2% K, 2.1% BB) in Double-A. The strikeouts were to be expected, but if his command continues to progress, then his potential ceiling is elevated significantly. Talented pitcher being optimized by one of the smartest organizations in baseball? Consider me the least bit surprised. Even if he doesn’t eat a lot of innings (he hasn’t yet gone 5 innings in a start this season), his overall efficiency will be immensely valuable in fantasy.
LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Model Rank: 207
Prospects Live Rank: 109
When you face tougher hitters, you’re generally supposed to strike out fewer hitters. Yet, pitching is such an independent art, meaning that it isn’t uncommon for prospects to have more success missing bats in college than they did in the minors.
That appears to be the case with Nick Lodolo. His 10.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 at TCU were solid enough to justify him being the 7th overall pick in 2019, yet the numbers didn’t jump out as “clear ace”. Now, though, he has had time to work with a tremendous player development staff in Cincinnati, and has also added velocity. The result? An absurd 40.6% strikeout rate for the first 34 innings of his professional career, including a 40.7% strikeout rate in 15.2 innings in Double-A this season.
With his command and the likelihood he accumulates a lot of innings, Lodolo already had a relatively high floor in terms of projected value. Now, though, if his strikeout efficiency holds up, then his ceiling may be much higher than many anticipated. It will be fun to see if that in fact happens over a larger sample size.
RHP Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays
Model Rank: 189
Prospects Live Rank: 194
Sticking with the 2019 draft, Alek Manoah was a much different case study than Nick Lodolo. While he did post dominant numbers (12.2 K/9, 2 BB/9) as a junior at West Virginia, it came in his only full season as a starter in college. That smaller sample size inherently made him a much riskier prospect, a major reason why he was selected after Lodolo (11th overall).
Right now, though, the Blue Jays have to be thrilled with their investment. Since his college career was a smaller sample size than most, his early professional start was going to be of greater significance. Thus, his 39.7% strikeout rate in 17 innings during the 2019 season at Low-A was certainly encouraging. Yet, none of that tops his current success. Despite an incredibly aggressive promotion to Triple-A, Manoah has responded exceptionally, posting a nearly identical strikeout rate with just a 4.5% walk rate in three games started.
With a plus fastball/slider combination, Manoah has the makings of a power pitcher and should tor long enough into games, unlike Baz. Considering the Blue Jays’ lack of pitching depth and their hopes of contending, there’s a chance his big-league debut occurs this season, which, if true, could boost his stock significantly. In other words, this might be the last time to acquire him for a reasonable price.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals
Model Rank: 368
Prospects Live Rank: 159
Power pitcher who was breaking out as a junior but had a small sample size in college? Well, that also explains Cade Cavalli to a tee!
After a very pedestrian sophomore season at Oklahoma (8.8 K/9, 5.2 BB/9), it was difficult to know what to make of Cavalli. However, after posting exceptional numbers (14.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9) in 23.2 innings as a junior, he became one of the most fascinating draft prospects in 2020. Yes, those numbers came in non-conference play before the COVID-19 shutdown, but it also was paired with an overall tremendous pitching arsenal, and as a former two-way player, he’s still relatively new to pitching.
That context made Cavalli a more than reasonable investment for the Nationals with the 22nd overall pick, and he’s responded well in his early professional career, striking out 40.9% of the batters he’s faced in 16 innings at High-A. Power pitchers in fantasy are a gold mine, so to see Cavalli’s intrigue from a scouting perspective align with strong early production is very encouraging. The fact that he’s new to pitching figures to help him from a stamina/injury prevention point of view, and could put him on an accelerated progression track. I personally will be keeping an extremely close eye on him, especially since Washington likely will challenge with a more aggressive assignment soon.
RHP Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates
Model Rank: N/A
Prospects Live Rank: N/A
The most under-the-radar prospect on this list, Roansy Contreras was actually someone Eddy Almaguer recently cited as a prospect worth buying into:
“Contreras is apparently touching the high 90s, which would be a big development. At the time of this publishing he leads MiLB with 22 strikeouts in just 11 innings. He’s one of four 21 year olds in Double-A, so his early performance is even more eye-opening. Is a true breakout incoming? Pick him up now and ask questions later.”
I couldn't have said that better than myself. Yes, Contreras didn’t miss a lot of bats previously in his minor-league career, but he also pitched 132.1 innings and held his own as a 19-year-old in Single-A, which is definitely impressive. Now in a new organization following a trade from the Yankees for Jameson Taillon, he appears to be a major success story in terms of his development. The Pirates are always looking for cost-controlled starting pitchers, so this is a very exciting story for their rebuild. As he gets more national prospect attention, you’ll start to see Contreras’ stock boost significantly. For this reason, make sure to make an extensive attempt to acquire him now. As Eddy states, you can ask questions later!
Overview
You don’t want to overreact too much to a small sample size, but considering there was no 2020 minor-league season, it is very important to see the early returns on how prospects are faring in terms of their development, especially those with very small track records.
For the most part, you’ll want to focus on K/BB ratios for both hitters and pitchers, in addition to factoring in their age for the level. Meanwhile, being able to add context that explains the jump in production is also something that can give you a major edge over your opponents. As they say, if you’re not early, you’re late, so although you’d love to wait for a longer sample size, you’re not always granted that time. With these ten prospects, it’s imperative that you’re the early bird. If not, you might not get the worm.