An awkward title, I know. First time doing this, so it's not an update, exactly. Genesis? Sounds a bit pretentious. So we'll keep it simple. This is the first update based on 2025 stats. To get an an idea of what Hobby+ is about, check out my Primer.
Data is limited for this update. My minimum is 90 AB to make the leaderboard – only around 40% of players who have been playing all year below AAA have hit that mark. But there's some interesting things going on here, so I think it's still worthwhile!
I cut my leaderboard to 50 for each section only for this update. It'll usually be 100. Much beyond these (and even within it) there are players that are, um...mediocre, shall we say? Data updated as of 5/5.
Age-Dependent Power
Esmerlyn Valdez has (deservedly) gotten a lot of hobby buzz from what I’ve seen, but similar from a numbers perspective we have Jeral Perez, who is a year younger at the same level (20 in High-A) and already has 9 HR. The K% is a little high, the average is a little low, but if he keeps a SLG around .550 (it’s .592 now) at this stage in his development, it’s a great sign regardless. Though he’s a 2B, he’s not a small one – these power gains don’t seem to be an anomaly. He only has rare color for his autographs in 2024 Bowman Chrome, so he’s a tougher one to gauge hobby interest. But if we look at his base parallels, it still seems a little weak considering the start. I say go for him, but it’ll be a longer hold with some considerable risk.
I would not be buying the Freili Encarnacion power breakout. Having 12 XBH in under 100 AB’s is quite nice, but his BB% has continued to be very low – 2% now. He’s entirely reliant on batted ball success, and with his below average foot speed he’ll have to continue his high LD%, which has jumped 8%. Seems like a small-sample anomaly.
In my 2022 Bowman Retrospective I said “I don’t think it’s ever going to happen for Jose Ramos”. Whoops. Clearly slugging .613 is not sustainable, but what a phenomenal start. At the same (AA) level he was last year, he’s shaved 10% off his K rate and had much better batter ball results. Sure, he’s still only a corner OF profile and likely a future 4th OF even with a trade to not-the-Dodgers. But his power, with the resurgence of perhaps being able to hit enough, should give him hobby interest. His base autos have no business being ~$6 if you’re interested in speculating on it.
Hitting Skill
Asbel Gonzalez is really the only significant takeaway in the Hitting Skill section. If he can continue down this path, with how aggressive he is on the basepaths, he’ll deserve the hobby relevance he’s getting with the base cards he has in 2025 Bowman. Right now it’s a lot of flash. Will it dissipate quickly, or continue to smoke?
I'm not surprised to see Sam Antonacci here, especially considering he's still at High-A. He's proving himself to be every bit the advanced hitter that the White Sox thought they were getting when they drafted him. The power? Also as expected – OK but not great. I'd watch for a call-up to AA, then check to see if the performance continues before pulling the trigger on a buy. You've got time.
Despite being on this list, Diego Velasquez, Brennan Milone, Cristofer Torin, Jakob Marsee, and a few others further down are actually struggling. That's going to be the case sometimes with his section. Showing skill at the plate does not always yield positive batted ball results.
Hobby+
For one update, Lazaro Montes is king. He’s just rolling. He hasn’t even shown all that much improvement from last year. He doesn’t need to. He hits all the marks we love for the hobby. He’s really expensive already, but deserves to be.
Jacob Reimer is back, baby! After getting only 78 AB’s last year due to a hamstring injury (and thus not qualifying for Hobby+ last year), he’s back to showing us just how intriguing of a power-with-some-hit bat he is. Just keep in mind he’s a little lower on the defensive spectrum – while he’s working to stick at 3B it’s likely he’ll end up at 1B. The hobby has definitely already taken notice to an extent, but there’s still room for quick growth and it hasn’t quite trickled down to ancillary offerings such as Bowman’s Best and Elite just yet. Should it? Maybe!
Warming Bernabel’s profile has ticked up in both hit and power in his first taste of AAA. The power could be (probably is) PCL inflation, but with his BB% ticking up 5%, both his hit and power could play as average or better at Coors. Ryan McMahon is likely trade bait, but his value is really low right now because he’s struggling – so he’s a block at 3B for now. But Bernabel can also play some 1B, and Michael Toglia (he of the 38 K% and .252 OBP) is less of a block. His two biggest obstacles right now? The Rockies lack of desire to win games, and the lack of a 40-man spot. His cards have seen very little increase thus far, and if he does get a call later this summer and cranks a few dingers? Easy growth potential that’s even easier to see now.
Arjun Nimmala is looking like a much less risky prospect so far. We don’t need to talk a ton about him because he’s already so highly regarded in the hobby, but he’s looking like perhaps an average hit projection now (He just misses the Hitting Skill leaderboard, but he’s a +26.9 from last year!) His K% is currently sub-20%! So far it’s cost him a bit of power, but he’s still getting to significant power (6 HR). If I were re-writing a preview, I’d tick his risk down to a 6 already based on what he’s done this year.
New guy alert! 2025 Bowman subject Kyle DeBarge seems to have figured out the issues he had in his debut last year. His power has ticked up to a point where it looks to be closer to his average-or-better ceiling. His hit was always less in doubt (and looks great). He’s already stolen 14 bases. I don’t think he ever really had a bargain price point in the early going (in break pre-sells and such), but now we see why he perhaps never should have been considered for Tier None.
Also in 2025 Bowman and also not really a value is Josue Briceño. But he’s continued his resurgence after not really showing power and then struggling in his return from injury. I think at this point it’s completely fair to buy into what he’s doing now (and the AFL), and to treat that at face value. There’s still some little contact issues, but with his power potential – it’s not all that worrisome right now.
Conclusion
There’s so many expected names and limited data that, instead of normal conclusions, I wanted to finish by calling out a few guys we’ll see next time (they’re close enough to my 90 AB minimum):
Leo De Vries is ridiculous – of course he would be #1 in Hobby+. He probably will be in a few weeks.
Mike Sirota needs a promotion. He was a wide-awake sleeper as a Red in 2024 Draft and now as a Dodger, has been utterly dominant as a former collegiate bat in Low-A. It’s a .675 SLG so far! Enough said. He's had his boost from being a Dodger, and that probably put him where he should be hobby-wise.
Aroon Escobar could also use a promotion. He’s already 20 – perfectly age-appropriate for High-A. But with such a small track record stateside I don’t think it’s coming all that soon. So we get to see him rip it up in Clearwater for another little while. I think he’s a dude, but the power he’s showing at this level is probably misleading. It's won't stop his 2025 cards from continuing to ascend.
We will see Ryan Waldschmidt in the next update, but his nice start is dampened by it being at High-A and his being well past age 22. It’s still probably enough to get him into the top 50 (I like him much more than that), but to get higher will probably take a promotion. Also, the K% is only average for the level and while his batted ball results have been good, they’re not at the “who cares about the K” stage of success.
Speaking of strikeouts, Javier Mogollon has cut down his K% significantly (still somewhat high) and continued to hit with some nice power at Low-A. We’ll certainly see him next time, likely in the top 20 names.
Yophery Rodriguez is a name my model loves. Being 19 in High-A is a part of it, walking a ton is a part of it, and showing decent power pushes him well into the second tier of names. Another 2025 Bowman subject off to a great start, and another I'll be hands-off from because of price.
Luis Peña might not even make the next update because he’s only at 60 AB’s. But don’t worry, he’ll be quite high when he makes his first appearance.
That's all for this time. Look forward to getting a more complete picture in a few weeks!
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