Here we go. The first update with a full leaderboard of 100 players in each section. Does it feel a little thin towards the bottom? Sure. But it gives us a baseline for players to move up and down on and a longer list to pop into. I'll be exploring that aspect more in future updates.
We're still roughly 2 updates away from any Complex players being on these lists. As a reminder, if you have any questions on what Hobby+ is, or who is and isn't included, reference my Primer.
Data in this piece is updated as of 5/19. Without further ado, let's get into it.
Age-Dependent Power
Well, Freili Encarnacion (2023 Bowman) just continues to do things. He’s hit 4 more HR and ticked his SLG into the mid-.500’s since my last update (in which I called him out as a non-buy). Nothing has changed with his sub-70% contact rate from last year. He’s just stronger now, which is allowing him to hit less balls on the ground. That juice with his hyper-aggressive approach is just letting him to get to all this power. Any way you slice it, 20 XBH in 35 games is great, and I can imagine a promotion to High-A – where we’ll see if he can continue this performance – is coming soon. At the very least, he’s a dirt cheap option who plays in one of the best card markets – could be a good option to flip quickly.
Alright, let’s play another game of “make Max eat his words”. Rosman Verdugo’s cards from 2022 Bowman Chrome are squarely not a buy despite his appearance here. He has a long track record of a high K%, and it’s not ticking down at all (37% now). He is an excellent defender at 3B, and has the power to profile there, so he’ll stick around for awhile yet. He’s definitely not deserving of being a zero in the hobby. But he’s not. He never has been. His risk, though, remains immense.
Hard to imagine that it was only a few months ago when Eduardo Quintero wasn’t a Top 100 prospect, but if you’re at least not strongly considering him in that breath now, you’re probably a little behind in your updates. There are definitely 5 tools in play here already at age 19, and a few could be plus. Hobby-wise I think he’s a Top 50 name at this juncture. It’s the power that’s the most surprising with him, but it didn't come out of nowhere – there was a physical transformation this offseason. This won’t be anything close to the only prospect in 2025 Bowman mentioned in this piece.
As a guy who has to collect in the lower rungs price-wise – catchers with power are my favorite demographic to target. Eduardo Tait (2024 BC) is an obvious name in that regard and gets lots of hobby love – he’s not for me. But here we also see Ramon Ramirez (2024 Bowman) and Alfredo Duno (2023 BC), who are reasonably affordable – and also Axiel Plaz (2023 BC). At his cheapest, Plaz is less than half the cost. For the first time this year he’s making an average amount of contact, and it comes with the same level of impact. That’s led to some drastically different batted ball results in a positive way. Now, he’s aggressive and chases a ton – I’m not saying his hit tool is good at all at this point. But he’s trending positively – it’s great to see him have success for the first time in stateside ball.
Hitting Skill
For players without a longer track record, Luis Peña (2025 Bowman) is the most hobby-relevant name to note in this section by a wide margin, and it’s not because he’s on the top. To hit the ball as hard as he’s hitting it with a sub-10 K% is truly special. His swing really and truly isn’t geared for HR. While I’ve had the thought that he might settle into a Trea Turner-type profile, it might be even more XBH and a higher BA at his peak. Oh, the age-18 thing? Not considered in this section.
Blaze Jordan may not have prodigious power translating to games that everyone thought he would when he was in 2021 Bowman, but he is a hitter who puts together high-quality AB’s and has seen his BB% risen notably this year. It now exceeds his K%, which was low to begin with. There’s obvious defense and speed limitations – it’s why he’s now played 170 games at AA, but as long as everything keeps trending as it has all along and the Red Sox are contending, he’d be a centerpiece in a trade come July. It seems that Sox fans are sick of him, as he’s fairly affordable already and clearly not seeing any price jumps. Can you imagine if ever actually gets to some of his raw power? Also keep in mind he’s still only 22!
Max Clark is showing himself this year to be the great hitter most thought he would be back at 2023 Bowman Draft release. It’s been trending this way since last year when he had a sub-20 K%, but now it’s sub-15% and his BB% has ticked up as well – his OBP on the season now sits at .425 as a 20 year old in High-A. His power hasn’t come around at all yet to the extent that was expected, but this is clearly a top 10 prospect in the game. He’s just not going to sit high on the Hobby+ leaderboard. Remember, this is stat-driven – no projections – and only 24% of his bases are of the extra-base variety at present. From here out, expect him to sit fairly high on this Hitting Skill leaderboard at least.
I want to call out William Bergolla (2022 Bowman Chrome) and Yophery Rodriguez (2025 Bowman) in the same breath here. Both of these are players who do have the ability to drive the ball, and are very young for their level (Bergolla at AA, Yophery at A+). But while their numbers at the plate are excellent from a K%/BB% perspective, they’re both also struggling to find meaningful contact at the moment. It’s completely fine. It’ll come. Just maybe not even this year. But if that lack of surface performance leads to a buying opportunity – jump at it. Both of these guys are quality hitters.
Hobby+
As expected, top prospects like Leo De Vries and Jett Williams make their debuts high on the leaderboard. (Jett looks like such a big riser because he was limited by injury, if you recall correctly). It’s definitely worth noting that they’re performing well, but there’s nothing prescriptive here – it’s status quo. Same for top prospects who were on the leaderboard list time like Josue De Paula, Arjun Nimmala, and Sebastian Walcott. We say goodbye to Moises Ballesteros with his MLB debut last week.
It’s crazy to see a nearly 22 year-old who’s only in High-A at the top here. But Mike Sirota’s numbers are Bonkers, and it’s continued since he got to High-A. In total it’s a .382/.469/.745. That SLG is the highest of any qualified player in full-season ball, and among prospects it’s by nearly .100. However, before we make any predictions on what his future is exactly, let’s wait until he’s actually challenged, OK? For now his 2024 Bowman Draft cards are on fire as you’d expect, and I even sold a Panini Prospect Edition auto in minutes, after listing it 20% higher than the last sale. Could’ve been a mistake, but the iron is certainly hot, so I struck.
Cole Young the power hitter? No no, not really, but his power outburst in the last few weeks is what has him as my single biggest rise amongst players who were already on the leaderboard. There’s nothing to take away from this unless he continues raking. He’s well regarded everywhere and his cards (2022 Bowman Draft) deserves to be where they are – dude is knocking on the door to the majors at age 21.
Jacob Reimer did more than hold serve in this update. His Hobby+ improved by 5 – and note, he’s doing this as a power hitter playing half his games in Brooklyn. That sea breeze coming into Coney Island is no joke. Who knows how many of his 15(!) doubles would’ve made it out elsewhere. His card prices (2023 Bowman Chrome) are steadily increasing, but there's still room to buy if you’re a true believer in his power potential.
Also playing in Brooklyn is A.J. Ewing, who debuts on the leaderboard in this update. It’s not so much over-the-fence power at this juncture with him, but continuing to hit with such impact after a promotion at age 20 is excellent. His K% has dropped nearly in half from last year, and that’s not something I think anyone had on their bingo card. A deadly weapon on the bases to boot, he’s got the juice to be a 5-tool player at this point. His cards in 2023 Bowman Draft have jumped notably already, and will continue to rise, being in the Mets market.
Creed Willems is looking like a fun prospect. The synergy of his above-average power & contact rate, aggression, and ability to barrel is really hitting a nice stride right now. His arm will always leave him with intrigue behind the plate, but if he’s going to hit this well, 1B & DH are both on the table as well. He also doesn’t turn 22 until next month and has 50 games of AA experience already. Not bad for an 8th Rounder! An auto-only subject in 2022 Bowman, the market on his cards is a bit mysterious as there’s never a high volume of sales – but at this point, a base auto for around $20 seems pretty fair, right?
Aroon Escobar (also 2025 Bowman) isn’t far behind Pena & Quintero, but as I mentioned last update the track record of success is small, so I want to see it in High-A before I make the same leap to being around the Top 50 for the hobby. If 2025 Bowman was released 8 weeks earlier, I would own all the Escobar. But since Bowman came out after the hype started, I own nothing and that makes me sad.
OK, time to give him flowers. I mentioned Esmerlyn Valdez in passing last time as a bridge to another prospect, but his breakout seems more real than not. He hit 22 HR last year – the power isn’t at all surprising. But that he’s been able to make little adjustments to his approach and to get to better impact while moving up a level for 2025 is very, very impressive. The batting average might be a little fluky, but everything else carries good projection moving forward. His autos in 2024 Bowman remain very inconsistent sellers too, so look for a deal!
Conclusion
This is the core group of players we should be expecting to see on these leaderboards. However, expect some fluidity because let's be real – 100-150 PA's isn't a ton. If I had included Henry Bolte's HR+2B game on 5/20, it would have pushed him from 58 to the mid-30's, for instance. Also, some of these players are being eased into pro ball or eased into full season ball – kid gloves, so to speak. Those will level off as they're more challenged. There are also a few players such as Samuel Basallo who are a few AB's behind – they'll debut next time. Basallo will be...let's say...quite high.
Because this is the hobby and it's fun to find breakouts to speculate on, I'll be sure to pick out a lower-echelon player or two (down in the 60-70 rank area) who are on the rise from either last year or a previous update moving forward. My list was just shorter last time, so I didn't do that.
Until next time, collect what you love!
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