A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Traditionally, I'm not a fan of comps. They put unfair expectations on a player, and each player is unique. However, I also recognize patterns and archetypes, so using other players as a frame of reference is natural. Over the last couple of weeks, I've made statistical comps of Kyle DeBarge to Luke Keaschall and Ethan Workinger to Jac Caglianone. The point of those comps was not to say that these players are similar, but only to show how they performed similarly at the same levels. This week, I threw out a new comp, and it's important to remember that this is just for illustrative purposes, so bear that in mind when you see it!
Note: all stats current through Tuesday 5/20/25 and all minor league statcast figures are sourced from TJ Stats.
I’m in 13 dynasty leagues of all different sizes and formats and make many weekly transactions. Due to this, I will include my pickups and drops from the last week below to give you an idea of who I’m targeting and moving on from. Players are in the order I currently value them. Bold names with an “*” indicate that the player is highlighted in the article below.
MLB Pickups
Will Warren, Luis Mey (x5)*, Will Benson, Robert Hassell, Brant Hurter, Graham Ashcraft (x2), Hayden Wesneski, Ramon Laureano
MiLB Pickups
Cole Carrigg,Luis Morales, Carlos LaGrange, Rainiel Rodriguez, Joseph Sullivan (x6) *, Bo Davidson (x6) *, Braxton Bragg, Nate George (x3), Carson McCusker (x2), Ching-Hsien Ko (x3)*, Marco Dinges, Marco Luciano, T.J. Nichols, Brandon Walter, Walker Martin
MLB Drops
JJ Bleday, Bowden Francis, Clayton Kershaw, Kameron Misner (x3), Alek Thomas (x2), Justin Verlander, Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, Luis Matos, J.T. Ginn (x4), Sean Burke, DJ Herz, Kyren Paris (x2), Ryan Gusto (x5), Jared Koenig
2024 stats (A): 89 PA .250/.416/.324, 0 HR, 8 SB, 14.6% BB, 12.4% K 2025 stats (A+): 36 PA .248/.455/.570, 11 HR, 17 SB, 22.2% BB, 30.5% K
Why To Pick Up
I always try to learn from my mistakes. Until now, I have ignored Joseph Sullivan due to his poor whiff and strikeout rates. Tom Gates recently asked me my rationale for not ranking him, and he's been getting some buzz after his huge performance last week. Ultimately, though, he was not someone I felt compelled to recommend until I remembered I felt similarly about Kristian Campbell at this time last year.
Before you get too excited, there are MANY reasons that Sullivan is not the next Campbell, which I will cover in the next section, but there are some interesting similarities. Sullivan and Campbell were collegiate draftees who made great contact in their draft years (Sullivan: 86.7%, Campbell: 79.8%). However, both also lacked power due to high groundball rates (Sullivan: 47.4%, Campbell: 50%). In their sophomore seasons at High-A, both players made adjustments to lower their groundball rates and get into more power at the expense of their contact. Here's what both players had done at High-A through May 20th:
Sullivan: 167 PA 1.025 OPS, 173 wRC+, 22% BB, 31% K Campbell: 125 PA .943 OPS, 165 wRC+, 14% BB, 29% K
It's easy to forget that on May 7th of last year, Campbell's strikeout rate was 31.7%, and it was still at 29.0% on May 22nd. When Campbell was promoted to Double-A on June 3rd, he had a 73% contact rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate, both boosted by a hot May. Those rates are not too far off from Sullivan's of 70.3% and 9.6%, respectively, and Sullivan's current zone contact rate of 72% is better than Campbell's 2024 High-A mark of 70%. Like Campbell, Sullivan is improving his contact as the season goes on, with a 20% strikeout rate in his last nine games. Sullivan also features a much lower chase rate (13%) than Campbell did at High-A (27%) and has shown more power/speed upside at the level, with 11 homers and 17 steals already.
Why To Think Twice
Sullivan is a year older than Campbell was and was drafted three rounds later. Sullivan has also been extremely passive, with just a 32.4% swing rate leading to an elevated 21.9% called strike rate. The whiff rate is also much worse than Campbell's in High-A. I used OPS to compare the two above instead of slash line because Sullivan's .248 batting average is much worse than anything Campbell posted in High-A.
Final Thoughts
Joseph Sullivan is likely not going to be the next Kristian Campbell. So why did I spend this whole section comparing the two? Because I try to learn from my mistakes, I should have been earlier on Kristian Campbell last season. There are significant differences between the two players, and just because Campbell figured out how to blend his newfound power with his previous levels of contact, there is no guarantee that Sullivan can do the same. However, the fact that we've seen a similar transformation before makes me open to the possibility. Shoutout to my co-host Kyle, who wrote this in Sullivan's offseason fantasy spin:
Sullivan offers a well-rounded profile on both sides of the ball, and if he can start lifting the ball more under pro instruction, he could take off. His status as a sleeper prospect hinges on improving the near 50% GB % he posted in his pro debut. He’s not a name going off the board in most FYPDs, but he is worth monitoring in 2025.
Sullivan has done the things Kyle listed, making him an intriguing pickup in medium-sized leagues, even if he's not destined to be the next Kristian Campbell.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 250+ prospects
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
Bo Davidson - 22/OF/SFG/A+
Height/Weight: 6’1”/205 lbs Bats: L Fantrax Rostership: 5%
Top 600+ Prospect Ranking (May 25): 351 My 400+ Prospect Ranking (May 25): 234
PLIVE+ (Career): 134 PLIVE+ (2025): 108
2024 stats (CPX/A): 263 PA .327/.437/.605, 11 HR, 7 SB, 14.4% BB, 24.7% K 2025 stats (A+): 142 PA .328/.394/.555, 5 HR, 5 SB, 9.9% BB, 20.4% K
Why To Pick Up
Every so often, I happen to be looking at a player and then stop what I'm doing and immediately go out and find a spot for them in several leagues. That was me this week with Bo Davidson. I knew he was having a great season (and ranked him aggressively at 234), but it didn't register just how much he's improved this year. Davidson was already a player who had posted good numbers throughout his career. Davidson was an undrafted free agent in 2023 and performed well in his 16-game Complex debut that year. He took things to a new level in 2024, absolutely raking in Single-A, even with a season-disrupting hamstring injury. He even earned a trip to the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .796 OPS.
The big development this season has been a massive step forward in Davidson's contact ability. He's boosted his overall contact rate by 9% to 80% and his zone contact by 8% to 81%. He's also reduced his whiff rate by 7% to 23.8% and his strikeout rate by 4%. Davidson was already a nice power/speed threat, possessing plus raw power and speed, so the improvement of the hit tool is a significant development.
Why To Think Twice
With the increase in contact has come an increase in aggressiveness as Davidson has boosted his swing rate by 5%. This has led to a reduced walk rate and a steep rise in chase rate to a brutal 34.9%. The chase rate has been improving all season long and is mitigated somewhat by a 13% jump in out-of-zone contact, but it's something to keep a close eye on. In addition, Davidson has always run high ground ball rates, and this season is no different, with a 51% ground ball rate. He'll need to fix that if he wants to translate that raw power to game power.
Final Thoughts
With his high ground ball and chase rates, Davidson still has some work to do, but the contact improvements combined with the power/speed upside make him a must-add in all medium-sized leagues. He hasn't caught much buzz yet this year, but that could change in a heartbeat, so it's better to invest early.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 250+ prospects
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
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A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Watch Path to the Show on Bally Sports Live & Stadium! | Check out the On Deck Podcast! | Dynasty Team Writer/Podcaster | I love the Tennessee Volunteers, milk, pitchers, catchers, & you <3 P4:13
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
