A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Happy trade deadline day! This is always one of my favorite (and least productive) days of the year. My Giants team pulled off a trade yesterday that got me excited, moving Tyler Rogers for Drew Gilbert, Blade Tidwell, and Jose Butto. Reactions to this trade were mixed among the PLive staff, but I, for one, am a big fan. Gilbert's prospect shine has worn off a bit in recent seasons, and he has some notable platoon splits. However, he seems a decent replacement offensively for Mike Yastrzemski as a strong side platoon bat in the Giants' outfield. However, his ability to play CF is a massive upgrade for the Giants and allows them to shift Jung Hoo Lee over to a corner where he is better suited. Gilbert is also on quite a hot streak in Triple-A, where he's hit six of his twelve home runs in his last 20 games to go with a 1.033 OPS. Blade Tidwell is another intriguing prospect who should join the big league rotation shortly. The stuff is nasty, and the control has taken a step forward at Triple-A this year. While his big league outings haven't gone well, San Francisco is a great landing spot for him, and even if he struggles as a starter, he could be converted to a nasty high-end reliever. Butto is a JAG reliever at this point in his career, but he gives the Giants a solid arm to plug into their bullpen in the short term. All this for a couple of months of Tyler Rogers is a huge win to me. I would not be surprised at all if Rogers re-signs with the Giants next offseason either.
Note: all stats current through Tuesday 7/29/25 and all minor league Statcast figures are sourced from TJ Stats.
Ty Johnson is a name that Kyle wrote up last September. At the time, he was 3% rostered and had been dominating since joining the Cubs in the Isaac Paredes trade. Kyle called him a pickup in leagues of 350+ prospects, but noted that his stock was on the rise. It certainly was as Ty Johnson debuted at 242 in our fantasy prospect rankings in November of 2024.
Fast forward to this season, and Johnson got out to a rough start, posting a 5.40 ERA (3.77 FIP) and 13.0% walk rate through his first seven outings. Only his season debut was a "start," and most of his outings, including that one, were of the two-inning variety. Things changed on May 18th, though, as from that date on, Johnson has been exclusively starting and has thrown four or more innings in all but one of his 12 starts during that stretch. In most of those starts, he's gone at least five innings. Not only has he shown increased length, but he has also achieved better results, posting a 1.65 ERA (2.05 FIP) with a 0.91 WHIP, a 34.3% strikeout rate, and a 9.9% walk rate. The walk rate has trended down recently, standing at just 7.8% over his last four starts. It's been a very impressive performance for a pitcher in Double-A.
Johnson's arsenal is led by his electric fastball. Here is what Rhys White had to say about it in this year's offseason report:
Since acquiring Ty Johnson as part of the deal that sent Isaac Paredes to the Cubs, the Rays have been making significant tweaks to his mechanics. Their biggest adjustment was lowering his release point from a traditional three-quarters delivery to a lower three-quarters slot. This change has transformed his fastball into an elite offering, not just due to its premium velocity but also because of the deception created by the way he hides the ball longer in his motion. The fastball now has some arm-side run, making it even harder for hitters to square up. Johnson's go-to secondary pitch is a complex, vertically dropping slider that's devastating, particularly against right-handed hitters, who tend to swing over the top of it as he locates it low and away. The challenge for Johnson, however, is his struggle against left-handed batters. But given the Rays' track record with pitchers, they're likely to find another weapon for him to neutralize opposite-handed hitters.
As Rhys mentioned, the left-handed hitters were a significant challenge for Johnson in 2024, as his OPS against them was .701 vs. .417 against right-handers. This season, Johnson has done just what Rhys precited as he's been better against left-handers (.492 OPS) than right-handers (.563 OPS) and has had a similar number of plate appearances. I couldn't determine if this is due to an arsenal change or better sequencing, but it's something to note nonetheless.
Why To Think Twice
Primarily a two-pitch pitcher, Johnson carries a significant amount of reliever risk. Rhys also mentioned this in his report:
Whether Johnson stays a starter or transitions to the bullpen is still uncertain. He has the upside of a high-leverage reliever even without a third pitch, but if he can develop that extra offering and improve his command, he could stick as a "five-and-dive" type of starter who racks up swings and misses.
The season-long walk rate over 10% and the relatively short outings early on this season also reinforce that risk. With the Rays, pitcher roles can be flexible, and Johnson has the skillset that would fit more of a fluid role than a traditional starter.
Final Thoughts
At the start of this season, Ty Johnson was part of a group of intriguing Rays arms, including Gary Gill Hill, Jackson Baumeister, and Yoniel Curet. For me, he has emerged as the best of that group this season. Despite this, there has been a lack of hype surrounding his recent performance. Please take advantage of that and scoop him up in shallower mid-sized leagues while you still can.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 200+ prospects rostered.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
Director of Amateur Scouting, proud to lead and share the team's work. | Check out Path to the Show on Bally Sports Live and College Baseball Now everywhere! | Grateful for family, the Vols, and everyone who reads Prospects Live. | For His Glory.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
