Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Hello and welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Pickups written series! Taylor and I both have busy schedules coming up, and this week in particular worked better for both of us to switch up the order of our articles, so surprise, you’ve got me for this mid-week edition! With fantasy playoffs kicking into gear, I’ve found myself needing to add some reinforcements around the edges of my rosters, and one of those players even snuck into this article. Aside from that big leaguer, we’ve got a hitting prospect with all-category upside if he can just rein in his approach, another who could be a strong contributor in most categories if he can learn to lift the ball, another bat with some sneaky underlying data, and one more arm whose fastball has some pretty gaudy metrics. Now let's get into the names you need to know this week.
*Note: all stats current through Tuesday, August 26 and all minor league Statcast figures are sourced from TJ Stats unless otherwise stated.
I’m wandering off the beaten path a bit for this one - not only is Svanson a big leaguer, but he’s a big league reliever to boot. I don’t normally stray into the bullpen much, but with RP seemingly having its most volatile season in recent memory, both in terms of injuries and random blow-up performances, I’ve found myself digging deeper for a somewhat reliable arm to help my fantasy teams in the playoffs. That digging led me to Matt Svanson, who, up until recently, had spent his rookie year as a middle relief arm but has received high-leverage opportunities in two of his last three appearances.
As you can see below, he operates with an East/West arsenal, leaning heavily on his high-octane sinker and a big breaking sweeper, which, on average, creates around 25” of horizontal separation. He also has a taste-breaking cutter that he uses as a bridge pitch, and I would ignore those few pitches classified as 4-seam fastballs, as they appear to be misclassified sinkers.
While his ground ball rate, and especially his chase rate, could use some improvement, they were both much better during his time in Triple-A this year, with a 28% chase% and 60% GB%. Yes, that’s against weaker competition but consider his sinker/sweeper heavy arsenal; his chase and whiff rates may never be elite, but it is very likely we see his GB rate tick back towards his career norms as he has never induced fewer than 52% ground balls at any level prior to his big league debut and has regularly held rates above 60%.
Why To Think Twice
It’s still a small, very recent sample of high leverage opportunities for Svanson, so not wanting to jump the gun is understandable, especially if you’ve had better luck with RPs this year than I have in some of my leagues. His current big league ERA is also significantly better than the number he posted in Triple-A to start the year, and his xERA of 3.27 implies he’s been getting a bit lucky. It’s a risky arm to rely on at the most important time of the year, but it’s a risk some of us need to take right now.
Final Thoughts
This isn’t just a reliever worth adding for playoff teams, Svanson is a nice speculative add for non-contenders too, as Nate Rasmussen has him listed as a “Tier 2 Setup” man for St. Louis in the Dynasty Closer Hierarchy. After a brief conversation with Nate, he echoed a lot of my sentiments regarding Svanson’s long-term value:
“He’s worth a look in deep leagues, especially since the offense is good enough to keep games close…whoever wins that job is valuable…betting favorite would be Svanson since Granillo has struggled a bit.”
Well, you heard the man, go grab Matt Svanson in your deep leagues that score saves + holds. I would still hold off in leagues that only score saves until we see him starting to get some run in the ninth inning, but if you’re like me and need some RP help through your fantasy playoffs, then Svanson might just save you.
Where to pick up: Saves + holds leagues with 12+ teams
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
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Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
