Week five of the weekly mailbag diving into your questions and providing what information we know. While I (@JoeDoyleMiLB) will be the one writing the piece, this is always a team effort. We’ll all see these questions and provide what insight we can. We all have different industry connections and different regional access, so I’ll be leaning on my team of Ralph (@ProspectJesus), Tyler (@TylerJennings24) and Ian (@FlaSmitty) for their expertise as well.
Hill is obviously the talk of college baseball this week. He tore his UCL last week mid-outing against Vanderbilt in a matchup with Jack Leiter. Hill is presumably slated for Tommy John surgery in which case he would not be healthy until Spring 2022. If he returns to LSU, he’d likely miss some time at the beginning of next season. If he goes pro, he likely wouldn’t be ready for Spring Training.
How far Hill will fall in the 2021 MLB Draft is a question nobody can really answer. His performances this year were not encouraging in terms of being the dominant arm some project him to be. Over 29.2 innings, Hill posted a 6.67 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and only 7.6 K/9. It’s probably a reasonably safe bet he’ll fall out of the top ten, but beyond that, it only takes one team to fall in love with his ability.
There’s no denying Hill’s arm talent. He was up to 98, though at times it was pretty hittable. He showed flashes of a brilliant slider, though more often than not it was inconsistent and lacked feel and command. His changeup was really the narrative this season, flashing plus in most outings. The changeup can be the last pitch to come back after a Tommy John surgery, potentially further muddying the waters.
Hill essentially went from one of the riskier arm profiles at the top of the class pre-injury, to now one of the bigger value plays should he fall outside of the top 30 picks. Selecting players who missed their draft-eligible years after undergoing Tommy John surgery is nothing new to the industry. Dax Fulton is the latest example from 2020. Fulton, a prep lefty out of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, was selected 40th overall by the Marlins in 2020 after missing the entire year leading up to the draft.
The Orioles have proven year in and year out that they’re unpredictable when it comes to the MLB Draft. General Manager Mike Elias and Scouting Director Mike Snyder have a way of targeting who they like and maneuvering in ways to afford them more money later on in the draft. So with that said, if Elias and Snyder deem Davis to be their guy and he’s available at pick no. 5, they’ll probably select him.
Having Adley Rutschman in the fold likely wouldn’t push the Orioles off Davis’ profile. First and foremost, teams want to have the best collection of talent they can, regardless of position. But there’s example of teams operating with two talented catchers too. The White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal with Zack Collins in the wings. The Giants drafted Patrick Bailey in 2020 with Joey Bart on the precipice of becoming their full-time guy. Talent is talent and you want to aggregate the best collection of it you can.
Besides, having the luxury of DH’ing Rutschman or Davis intermittently would be quite the luxury to keep your star backstops fresh.
This is a pretty good question, Tyler.
For the high school hitters, it’s hard to look past Peyton Stovall of Haughton, LA. He’s hitting the cover off the ball this spring and it’s really caught scouts attention. He’s pushing into day one consideration for some teams. Elsewhere, Fort Pierce, Florida outfielder Jay Allen has really taken steps forward in terms of his physicality at the plate and power projection. The athleticism has ticked up. He’s certainly creeping into those conversations as well. Another one is IMG Academy shortstop Drake Varnado.
On the mound, quite a few names have taken big strides forward in the eyes of scouts. Gilman, Maryland righty Peter Heubeck is a super-projectable arm that’s been up to 95 with a big breaking ball. Saraland, Alabama southpaw Maddux Bruns is filling up the strike zone this spring and touching 99. Other guys really showing well include Tampa, Florida’s Jac Caglianone, and Montgomery, Texas righty Caedmon Parker.
It’s still a bit too early to be discussing under-slot options for any teams, but we can hypothesize a bit.
The Red Sox are in an unfamiliar chair this season picking so high. They’ve got some bonus pool money to play with this year, so yes, they could get creative. I do think if Marcelo Mayer or Jordan Lawlar are there for the Sox, they’d jump on it, but neither of them will be under-slot options.
In terms of Brady House, I really don’t think he’d qualify either. I would have to imagine House and his camp believe he’s one of the five best players in the draft, so getting a discount is pretty unlikely. But I could be wrong. He’s a pretty special talent, hit tool question marks aside.
I think a prep arm like Jackson Jobe might make some sense as an under-slot at pick no. 4. James Wood is a possibility as well, but he’s been mocked up into the top five in the past. That said, he’s off to a slower start this spring. The sleeper name to watch out for might be Dexter Southfield outfielder Joshua Baez. He’s a local kid who’s a fan of the team. If he has a big spring and elevates his name into the Top 15 conversation, he might make some sense if Scouting Director Michael Rikard is convinced on the talent.
Really good question here.
First and foremost, Bobby Witt Jr. and House were both reasonably famous names well-prior to their draft dates. Those that followed the 2019 draft closely knew about Witt Jr. in 2017. The same can be said for House. He was a name to know all the way back in 2019 for this 2021 draft.
As far as skillsets go, House is a more physical player than Witt Jr. was on his draft day. Some think House could have 70 raw power. Witt Jr. really never got those labels. Defensively, the Royals shortstop always had buttery actions on the dirt and few doubted his defensive home being at the position. Conversely, House will likely move to third base. He’s a little more stiff than Witt Jr. and projects physically to be a much bigger pro.
Witt Jr. had a much bigger camp of fans on his hit tool than House seems to have right now, but both players went/have gone through their fair share of naysayers as we move closer to draft day. The mainstream likes to find reasons to doubt the famous name. It’s just the way things are.
One thing the two players have in common is ridiculous measurable traits in terms of biomechanics. Both guys rank/ranked at or near the very top of their class in barrel velocity, hand speed and infield throw velocity. They’re both really incredible physical athletes.
Witt Jr. was receiving comps like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa during his draft cycle whereas House seems to be getting comp’d more comfortably to guys like Matt Chapman and Kris Bryant.
This college baseball season probably isn’t shaking out quite how the Mariners would have liked it to. The team is pretty noticeably light in the middle infield of their farm. Presumably, they’d have liked to have seen some talented middle infield hitters buoy toward the top this spring. That hasn’t happened.
UCLA shortstop Matt McLain has been good, not great this season. Teams are pitching around him and he’s expanding the zone a bit more than usual. The power hasn’t really been there for McLain either. He enters week eight of the season hitting .284 with four homers. He’s slipping on draft boards a bit, but there’s plenty of time to re-establish his profile and re-write the season narrative.
Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick has been one of the best players in college baseball, and teams have asked about his ability to move back onto the dirt to handle second base. I think there’s a reasonable chance whoever selects Frelick plays him in a super-utility role at the next level. As for right now, Frelick looks like a pretty popular pick to go in the top ten, so if he fell to 12 and Seattle, they’d likely show interest.
Personally, I really like Auburn shortstop Ryan Bliss. He may not have the physical upside of a prototypical middle-of-the-lineup hitter, but he’s hit more homers this season (7) than he had in his entire career leading up to the year (6). Bliss is hitting .360 on the year, running a K-rate under 10-percent. He might not make sense for Seattle at no. 12, but he’d be a steal for me in the second round.