What Metrically Makes an Ace Part II: 2021 MLB Draft Prospects with that “Special Something”

Primer

In Part two of this three-part series: “What Metrically Makes an Ace”, I will be reviewing 15 more 2021 draft prospects that fit the profile discussed in the first article last week. For those of you who want to catch up, the link to part 1, including the primer (where the important info I am judging prospects on) is directly below.

What Metrically Makes an Ace Part 1

As a refresher, here is a less detailed, simple summary of what analytic and mechanical characteristics I will be looking for:

This article features prospects that showcase low vertical approach angles. As mentioned last week, a vertical approach angle is essentially the angle in which the ball travels from the pitcher’s release to when it crosses the plate (it’s what the hitter sees). What’s so great about a low vertical approach angle? A low vertical approach angle fastball doesn’t line up with the vertical bat angles of today’s power friendly swings.

Last week, I mentioned how top big league arms such as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Josh Hader, and Jack Flaherty all have fastballs that play like this; bringing lots of whiffs and mishits on fastballs up in the zone. So, how does a pitcher develop a low vertical approach angle? In order to obtain this trait, one must do two things really well: release the ball low to the ground (so it doesn’t have to angle downward as much- especially helpful with high RPM), and extend closer to the plate (i.e. the ball has less feet to travel= less time for angle to get steeper/added perceived velocity). 

2021 PITCHER EVALUATIONS

Many obvious top prospects — in fact most pitchers projected in the top half of the first round — have been omitted from this list. Rather, just like in part 1, part 2 of this three-part series will cover the remaining 7 of the 15 players from our Top 100 MLB Draft list, and 8 more prospects that project in the middle rounds of the ’21 draft (they appear in no particular order).

Bottom Line: All of these pitchers feature solid extension and low release points unless otherwise mentioned. Standard metrics and mechanical breakdowns are factored-in to paint the whole picture of each draft candidate. Part 3 of this series will be Wyatt’s Watchlist, which will feature under-17 year old arms with burgeoning talent and superior mechanics, who already have a grasp of the low vertical approach angle.

*An asterisk before a name signifies a player ranked in Prospect Live’s top 100 prospects for 2021.

*Gunnar Hoglund (R)

6’4’’ 220

Ole Miss

The 6’4’’ right hander out of Ole Miss is a very intriguing pick for the middle to late first round. Out of every top of the line pitcher in the draft, Hoglund may have one of the most complete arsenals. His fastball velocity is nothing to raise any eyebrows over; but with a spin rate of over 2400 and a solid amount of vertical movement, it plays heavier than the radar gun reads. His 12:45–1 axis and great true spin on the fastball further showcases the quality of the pitch.

Hoglund’s slider however is what makes him a first round pick. The slide piece features almost no vertical break, and slight horizontal movement as it reaches the plate, making it tough to read as a hitter. His spin rate on the slider sits at over 2450, and the Bauer Unit rating of over 30 on it tells us that it is elite without a question. Mix in the fact that the slider tunnels almost perfectly, and he gets a great amount of gyro spin on it means that it has a complete profile. He mixes in an average change up to complete his arsenal.

The only concern I have when it comes to Hoglund is that his stride is relatively short in relation to his height. This translates to him delivering his pitches from higher up on the mound, creating a steeper approach angle. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but given the profile of his pitches, it is not advantageous. Typically, guys with steep approach angles either throw sinkers as their primary pitch, or utilize the higher release by showcasing a 12/6 curveball. With Hoglund throwing a 4-seam fastball and slider, it just doesn’t line up advantageously. The steep approach angle could become problematic with his slower playing fastball if he were to miss up in the zone facing a higher caliber hitter.

He posted a sub-2 ERA in his four starts this year prior to the shutdown, and shows a great level of maturity. He is being included on this list due to his high level of maturity, attitude, and consistent ability to get guys out at a high level (there is a reason he went first round out of high school). If necessary tweaks are made to his stride, which should lead to fewer hangers and better quality misses on his pitches, he will project out into a quality big league starter.

Look for Hoglund’s outstanding arm extension- he reaches out as far as possible prior to release. He also spots up his pitches very well as seen on this punchout above.

Look for Hoglund’s outstanding arm extension- he reaches out as far as possible prior to release. He also spots up his pitches very well as seen on this punchout above.

Mason Black (R)

6’3’’ 210

Lehigh

The 6’3’’ right hander out of Lehigh is an under the radar prospect that is certainly one to watch. Black throws a lot of strikes, living in the mid 90s with his fastball. He was reported to have touched triple digits (102) by his summer league coach. He has a very athletic/muscular build, particularly in his lower half, which is to be desired.

Black went unbeaten as a freshman at Lehigh (3–0), and has posted a solid 1.27 WHIP over his first two seasons (this year abbreviated) with opponents hitting .236 against him for his career. He’s a smart kid (engineering student) and seems perceptive, wanting to learn and get better. Mechanically, his hip drive and explosiveness off the drive are fantastic, allowing him to extend towards the plate really well. This creates a desired approach angle, resulting in very few squared up baseballs.

Despite all these positives, there is a mechanical issue worth noting: Post front foot plant (stride) he rotates quite violently, resulting in a lot of drag on his throwing arm as it comes through to release the ball. This drag can lead to elbow problems, particularly involving the UCL (Tommy John ligament). Mechanical corrections can be made that eliminate the drag and result in more whip (arm action) thus adding velocity and keeping him healthy. He has no health problems to date, this is merely a precautionary observation for the future.

Black was scheduled to play on the Cape this summer, after leading the league in ERA and strikeouts (1.47, 39 K in 36.2 IP) last summer, where he started the All Star Game. This summer, with the Cape season cancelled, he has played in the South Florida Collegiate Baseball League, where he has posted a 1.00 ERA in 5 starts, with 10 more strikeouts than innings pitched. Black is an arm that continues to trend upward heading into 2021. Stating that tabs should be kept on him is a serious understatement.

In this clip, you can see the fantastic job Black does in driving forward, sitting into his glutes, and extending. You can also see how he pulls with his left side, creating the armside drag that I refer to in the section above (is risky for injury)

In this clip, you can see the fantastic job Black does in driving forward, sitting into his glutes, and extending. You can also see how he pulls with his left side, creating the armside drag that I refer to in the section above (is risky for injury)

*Andrew Painter (R)

6’7’’ 230

Calvary Christian Academy- Boynton Beach, FL

An extremely high value pick that will likely go mid first round, Painter checks off a ton of boxes (best prep arm in the draft class). The 17-year-old hurler out of Cavalry Christian in Pompano Beach, Florida stands 6’7’’ 220 lbs. He is extremely imposing and could add some bulk in the next few years.

Painter throws an easy 94–96, with a repeatable, effortless delivery. His low stress delivery and ability to hit the upper middle 90s (with a spin rate of over 2500= elite) is exactly what you want out of a projected top of the line big league starter. Painter takes advantage of the leverage he gets, showcasing massive vertical movement on the fastball. Combine that with his plus 12/6 curveball, and a changeup that completely falls off the table (1100 spin rate at PG National) makes for a very advanced arsenal for such a young arm (born in ‘03).

He maintains armspeed very well on his offspeed pitches, and occasionally mixes up his leg lift in the windup to throw off the timing of the hitter (will switch into a slide step or change pace of leg lift). Throughout his variations, he generally keeps within rhythm, which doesn’t seem to affect him making his pitches. The only thing of concern in regards to Painter as a prospect is that his stride is too short. This could make for problems if he leaves fastballs up in the zone.

Counter to what I feel makes an ace in the primer, there are two ways I see Painter projecting as a pitcher. Option 1 could be to leave his stride where it is, and have him start throwing a sinker instead of a four seam fastball. While the sinker baller as a whole is a bit of a dying breed, very few throw the pitch in the upper 90s (he projects to throw that hard). This leads us to option 2, which I prefer. Coaches could work on him lengthening out his stride, which would lead to a lower release height and a flat fastball. However, as mentioned prior, I would still like to see him throw a sinker instead of a fastball. Only this sinker would be unique, because it would play flat. Painter is already throwing in the upper 90s, and this year in the bigs we have seen two arms showcase upper 90s, flat sinkers and dominate (Dustin May and Sandy Alcantara). Both of the aforementioned arms in the brackets throw sinkers with lower approach angles and very little vertical movement, turning what is typically used as a ground ball pitch, into a strikeout pitch (98 up in the zone with 16+ inches of run is deadly).

I see the latter as the lower risk, higher reward option, as previously mentioned, a flatter high velo pitch plays better in 2020. Painter feels like a low risk pick for a high school arm that projects out in a big way, due to his mechanics and stuff being beyond advanced for a prep arm. If coached up properly, he could be a big league ace in the making.

In this video, look for the quality of Painter’s entire arsenal, particularly his breaking ball- the armspeed is identical on the fb/cb combo. His different stride variations can also be seen.

Bo Blessie (R)

6’4’’ 180

Nebraska

Blessie’s fantastic hip flexibility can be seen in this photo. While his shoulder is pulling slightly early, the extension and how he sits into his glutes are what should be most noted

Blessie’s fantastic hip flexibility can be seen in this photo. While his shoulder is pulling slightly early, the extension and how he sits into his glutes are what should be most noted

Blessie, a 6’4’’ right hander out of Nebraska is a low floor, extremely high ceiling right handed arm. Blessie’s arsenal is relatively limited in diversity, though with proper development, I’d like to see him start throwing something with arm side run (circle change with a hard pronation would suit him). His fastball sits low 90s, and isn't really that special in any way (average spin rate and vertical movement).

However, his slider is worth raising an eyebrow over. Arguably the best breaking ball in the draft, it would be fair to rate his slide piece as a 70 on the scale (spin rate around 2775 and solid horizontal movement). It would be fair to classify it as a slurve due to its active dip and coinciding horizontal movement, but either way it is beyond elite. One thing of note on the breaking ball, Blessie gets a solid amount of gyro action for the amount of vertical break it gets. Meaning it is not all spin that drives the movement profile; gravity aids in the vertical movement on the offering. This would be ideal on a slider (perfect gyro is preferable), and it plays very nicely into his slurve profile (makes it unique).

He is apparently a good learner, which will be important in his development, as the fine tuning of his fastball and the picking up of a quality third pitch for his arsenal will make or break his professional career. He has a very easy motion, gliding down the mound really nicely. He could get more nonviolent torque post plant, though he already has a fantastic backside drive and rotation (just feel like there is more in him). With a stellar extension and low to the ground release, he creates an ideal vertical approach angle.

I believe his career will depend on the development of that third pitch, making him a higher risk prospect with a big upside. At only 180 lbs (some websites have him listed as even lighter), he could put on a lot of weight. This would help raise the profile of his fastball, adding needed velocity at the current state of his arsenal. Blessie will go down as a feast or famine prospect. However, he is a solid under the radar mid round choice with high upside.

Sam Bachman (R)

6’1’’ 235

Miami Ohio

Bachman, a reliever out of Miami Ohio is a guy that could be of value in the middle rounds of a draft. A sturdy 6’1 235, Bachman shows surprising athleticism, and has some intangibles that make him worth taking a shot on. While he is probably close to physically maxed out, his qualities are too good to ignore.

The first thing that jumps out about Bachman is his flexibility and extension. He is able to generate a ton of force while striding out to a point of his knee being on a level plane with his hip mid stride. This allows his low to mid 90s fastball to be sneaky quick when it comes through the zone. This extension is proven elite when you look at his numbers. A flat approach angle (caused by solid extension and low release height) is designed to prevent hitters from barreling the ball up, and in the launch angle era, taking a pitcher deep. In over 99 innings pitched in his college career, Bachman has watched a ball sail over the wall only three times, and opponents have hit a pedestrian .237 while facing him. Bachman also has a stellar 11.79 career K/9, posting a good 1.31 WHIP along with it. These numbers could be attributed to his nearly identical release points on his fastball and changeup (his go to offspeed). When watching the overlay video of his release points, it is exactly what you want to see from a pitcher. His hands overlap identically until he is forced to pronate on his changeup (happens very late in regards to release). Additionally, the pitches tunnel beautifully in regards to their flight path towards the plate.

I project Bachman out as a guy that could fill a role in a big league bullpen. While he physically might not get any bigger or stronger, his fastball/change combo is elite, and the development of a better breaking ball in the minors could make him a solid middle reliever. He could be a value pick in the middle rounds for teams willing to take 2–3 years to develop a reliever.

Bachman, sitting well into his glutes. He shows off his fantastic hip flexibility here, which contributes to his very low release point

Bachman, sitting well into his glutes. He shows off his fantastic hip flexibility here, which contributes to his very low release point

Zach Pettway (R)

6’1’’ 210

UCLA

The UCLA right hander has elite extension and vertical movement on his fastball. The high extension (a whopping seven feet) means Pettway has a very low release height, resulting in an ideal approach angle. Couple that with a fastball possessing 10 inches of vertical movement, and you have quite the next gen prospect.

In this video, watch how well Pettway drives down the hill, and how consistent his windup and arm action is on both fastball and offspeed pitches

He has a good mix in velo between the fastball and breaking stuff (almost 15 mph on average). His slider and curve are too similar in terms of horizontal break and spin rate for my liking; I would prefer to see him commit to one of the two and master it. Of those two breaking balls, I would prefer he commit to the curveball. My reasoning for this is rooted in the fact that he throws his fastball from a near 12:00 axis- that tilt suggests that a curveball’s break profile would benefit more than a slider (when released on the same axis it should tunnel better than a slider as well if a hitter reads spin-makes it even harder to differentiate the pitches).

The changeup is his most impressive offspeed pitch, with vertical movement over 10 inches, resembling the fastball quite a bit out of the hand. He could probably add some rpms to his fastball with professional coaching. His 12:00 axis is ideal, and is something to build off of. Pettway projects out to a low end starter for now, will have to improve the spotting of his offspeed pitches late in counts for me to see him as anything better than a fourth starter. He has been extremely successful at UCLA, finding ways to gut out wins consistently. He has a lot of potential due to the quality vertical approach angle, and he is a high floor medium ceiling type of value pick.

*Christian Little (R)

6’4’’ 210

Christian Brothers College HS- St. Louis, MO

With a fastball touching 95 at age 17 (turned 17 this month), Little is an elite prospect. With an ideal, projectable frame for a top of the line starter; he’s got the goods. Little compliments his flat angled heater with a tight breaking curve (2400–2600 rpm), and a fantastic changeup that he rolls off of his fingertips exceptionally well (1600 rpm). On top of that, his control is plus for a prep pitcher on all four of his pitches.

As he gets older, he will likely fill out even more, picking up further velocity in the process. Mechanically, his delivery is extremely simple and smooth. His arm action is super easy, and remains consistent on all four of his pitches. Little sits into his glutes really well, exploding forward into a fantastic extension. He releases the ball pretty low for a guy of his stature (ideal approach angle), and his flexibility is plus. He is a guy that a team should look to go out and get, as the consistent, low stress delivery along with his plus secondary pitches definitely project out to at least a middle of the rotation starter (though if his body continues to develop along with his pitches), he could project to an ace.

Watch how simple, stress free, and repeatable Little’s delivery is, along with how he keeps it consistent on all offerings. His full arsenal is on display in this video

*Jackson Jobe (R)

6’2’’ 190

Heritage HS- Oklahoma City, OK

This 6’2’’ 190 Ole Miss commit throws gas. The 17 year old has a fastball averaging mid 90s and hitting as high as 96–97. Why am I so high on Jobe? Quite frankly, he has a lot of physical growth to do; it’s not hard to envision him at 215–220 when fully developed, which should mean triple digit velocity. With a very lively arm, and a biting breaking ball his stuff is undeniable for a prep arm.

Jobe does a wonderful job of sinking down as he gets into his drive. This creates additional force going down the hill, and aids in giving him elite extension. This contributes to a low vertical approach angle

Jobe does a wonderful job of sinking down as he gets into his drive. This creates additional force going down the hill, and aids in giving him elite extension. This contributes to a low vertical approach angle

The only knock on his physical pitches is the fact that he sometimes doesn’t go all in on his breaking ball, causing issues in regards to potential hang. He has very good coordination in delivery, and is extremely smooth in his stride and release. Possessing a big extension, just like many others on this list, means he releases the ball relatively closer to the plate than many of his peers. This is obviously beneficial, as his already upper 90s fastball plays even harder. Jobe has a pretty low release point, which coupled with the aforementioned plus extension leads to a low vertical approach angle. The low angle makes his elite fastball play up in the zone, which can be a nightmare for hitters to handle.

Jobe has physical filling out to do and needs fine tuning on his breaking pitches, but is a project worth partaking in as he fits the hard throwing, low approach angle combo that is becoming more and more coveted of late.

*Maddux Bruns (L)

6’2’’ 210

UMS-Wright Preparatory- Saraland, AL

Bruns is a left handed fireballer committed to Mississippi State. Standing 6’2’’ with a good lower half build. Bruns has a fantastic sink and drive action from his back side in his delivery, which helps contribute to his 94–97 mph fastball. His mechanics are clean, and Bruns gets great arm action from the back side coming forward.

My only mechanical concern with him is an easy fix: sometimes he has a tendency to tip the location of his pitch by altering the landing point of his stride in the direction of the desired pitch location (horizontally). However, this can easily be corrected.

He throws his curveball from 11 to 5 and gets very good rotation on it as it bites quite a bit. The plus that comes with his 11/5 breaking ball tilt is that it pretty much mimics the spin axis of the fastball. While tilt doesn't necessarily aid in the tunneling process, it makes it tougher to read when the pitches tunnel well already. This is due to the fact that the rotational profile looks more similar, resulting in a more difficult recognition process from the hitter’s point of view.

While a little more mechanically raw than some pitchers mentioned earlier, he does a great job of getting off the mound with his extension (leads to low approach angle) and has elite velocity out of that left arm. This allows him to climb the ladder with ease, getting close to that ideal “rising” fastball from a left hander.

Watch how smooth Bruns is as he glides down the hill. The extension is plus, and he keeps everything the same on his devastating breaking ball- the pitch to look out for in this short video

*Christian MacLeod (L)

6’4’’ 227

Mississippi State

The first thing that stands out about MacLeod is his build- he is exactly what you want size wise out of a starting pitcher. MacLeod’s fastball is right around average (89–92, 2282 spin rate), yet MacLeod makes his mark with his offspeed pitches. With a devastating change that falls off the table (spin rate under 1400), a plus curve (his best out pitch), and an ever improving breaking ball with serious bite, he can mix and match with ease. The average fastball (metrically) gets a lot of vertical movement on it, making up for his low spin rate. The solid movement on the heater also suggests a very high efficiency mark along with a solid spin axis.

MacLeod is an attractive pick for the second round, as he is very projectable. His extension is relatively average and can be improved, but a left handed arm with plus offspeed is something that cannot be ignored. In regards to his stride: if maintained the same, I would see him having to switch to a 2 seam fastball or sinker to get some movement on it. However, due to the fact that his velocity is not high, and that hitters’ attack angles line up with steep approach angles, it would not be ideal. The only way for that to be effective would be if he were to use the sinker as a setup pitch for his elite offspeed stuff (think Dallas Keuchel), though it would still be risky as a slider would better compliment a sinker/2 seam than his curve. I would prefer to see him utilize his large frame in creating better extension, and a fastball that can play up in the zone. This compliments his curve, which already plays well to that projected profile, and a change that flat out dies.

On the mechanics side, he is very calm and collected before driving down the hill. His hip hinge is high quality, and armspeed is solid and consistent on all of his pitches. I see him as a guy that could project out nicely, though he will have to make adjustments to cut it at the next level.

Between 0:36 and 0:45 you can see the mix of fastball to changeup- they tunnel beautifully. With everything staying the same in regards to delivery and arm speed, it is easy to see why it is a solid combo

Rodney Boone (L)

6’2’’ 175

UCSB

UCSB’s Friday night starter, Boone is an under the radar type of guy with a very good upside. He has a fastball in the low 90s (average spin rate), with a change that falls off the table, and fantastic command of a slow moving curve. That curve is probably his best pitch, with wicked horizontal action, adding up to a Bauer Unit rating of over 30.

He has a pretty simple delivery with good rotation and a consistent arm angle and speed. Boone’s extension comes out to right around his height (+/- 6 feet- more than acceptable, though not elite), and he gets absolutely nasty vertical movement on his fastball (over 11 inches).

Boone was extremely effective at UCSB this year and was set to play on the Cape this summer, where he was poised for a big summer season. I still see him projecting up nicely, and if he continues to improve at this rate, I can envision him going as high as the second round.

Boone sinks really well into his backside, aiding in his push off the rubber. His hip hinge (though not pictured) is outstanding

Boone sinks really well into his backside, aiding in his push off the rubber. His hip hinge (though not pictured) is outstanding

Jack Perkins (R)

6’1’’ 200

Louisville

A right hander out of Louisville, Perkins has a very lively fastball sitting in the mid to upper 90s (93–97). With an extremely easy delivery, and quality arm action it's easy to see him playing at the next level. His drive down from the rubber is fantastic, resulting in his 6’1’’ frame extending around 6.5 feet off the rubber upon release (this helps create the desired approach angle). He has a very strong, athletic build, and appears very flexible, as he is able to stretch out pretty well on his stride, and gets a good follow through from his leg post delivery of some pitches.

The knock on him right now is that he missed the shortened 2020 college season due to his recovery from Tommy John. However, he has looked good thus far, starting the All Star Game in his summer college league. While he still has to work his way back to 100%, his plus velo and low approach angle are exactly what many scouts are looking for these days, making him worth keeping tabs on. He was drafted in the 11th round out of high school by the Phillies, and elected to go to college in order to further develop. This is worth noting as it means he already was seen as a plus high school arm, though his 2021 season will make or break his draft stock given his recovery from surgery.

Perkins does a wonderful job of maximizing the kinetic energy he gets from the potential energy created at the start of his drive (watch drive to extension). His delivery is very simple, easy, and consistent (no nonsense), which is a big plus

Perkins does a wonderful job of maximizing the kinetic energy he gets from the potential energy created at the start of his drive (watch drive to extension). His delivery is very simple, easy, and consistent (no nonsense), which is a big plus

James Peyton Smith (R)

6’4’’ 218

East Robertson HS- Springfield TN

Smith’s jerky “knees and elbows” delivery is on full display in this video. It is not detrimental to potential velo, locating, or injury, and can throw off hitter’s timing/ability to read the pitch

Vanderbilt commit Smith is exactly what one wants when looking at a prep starter that can project to the big league level. With electric stuff coming from a mid three quarter slot, Smith tops out at around 96–98 with a plus change and slider. Mechanically there isn’t much wrong, and from the viewpoint of the hitter he is all knees and elbows. This is not detrimental whatsoever, and could in fact benefit Smith, with the jerky movement serving as a distraction to the hitter.

The only mechanical tweak he needs to make is the fact that he does not hide the ball well from the point of separation. Its a nitpicky observation, but if he wants to succeed at the next level, hiding the ball well is critical. From a metrics standpoint, the only issue he has is a low spin rate on his heater, though this can be addressed with good coaching. The reasoning behind my noting of this being negative is that in an ideal world a plus fastball like his should play up in the zone. A higher spin rate on said fastball ensures that the ball remains up, seeing less vertical movement due to the magnus effect providing vertical lift. His solid arm action and good sized stride make his perceived velocity even higher than the mid to high 90s he constantly touches.

Smith has a very projectable build as a starter, and could probably go up to 230 on a professional weight program. He is a quality high school arm, and teams would be smart to jump on drafting him before he decides to head to Vandy.

Ryan Ginther (L)

5’10’’ 201

Station Camp HS- Hendersonville, TN

Ginther, a left hander committed to Vanderbilt is a high quality prep arm that is worth considering for the 2021 draft. Ginther is only 5’10’’, yet has a powerful fastball in the mid 90s (I would grade 60–65). This projects out beautifully, as he still has some room to grow into his body (may be able to flirt with triple digits down the road).

His offspeed is average, with the downside to it being that he occasionally tips the breaking ball with an early firing back side shoulder, where he can collapse his chest trying to force downward spin. His mechanics as a whole outside of the breaking ball tipping are very good; he is flexible, which allows him to have a massive extension for someone of his stature. Throw the plus fastball in with a release much closer to the plate, and you get a dangerous lefty arm.

He is a solid option that could develop into a plus starter down the line. Ginther is pretty raw compared to some other prep arms in his class, though he is a gamble that could pay off massive five years from now at the Major League level (both starter and bullpen potential). Something of note when looking at Ginther is that he will likely want a heavier signing bonus to lure him away from Vandy, so an earlier selection may be necessary to match an appropriate slot value. This is something interested teams will have to consider. He is a little raw right now, but would have to be taken earlier (than preferable for many) to sway him away from Vanderbilt.

Ginther sinks unbelievably low as he extends; in this image, his back knee is almost touching the ground. The insane hip flexibility helps contribute to his fantastic extension, which results in his stellar vertical approach angle

Ginther sinks unbelievably low as he extends; in this image, his back knee is almost touching the ground. The insane hip flexibility helps contribute to his fantastic extension, which results in his stellar vertical approach angle

Ben Specht (R)

6’1’’ 205

Florida

With a strong build and a live fastball in the mid 90s, Specht is a value type of pick. As a reliever, his draft stock will not reflect his stuff. He posted a 0.75 ERA for Florida over 12 innings pitched out of the pen for the Gators prior to the Corona shutdown. Specht possesses average breaking stuff (78-81 +/-2200rpm) and a decent changeup (79-81 2050-2100 rmp). The change is the more effective of the two, as the high spin rate and fade of up to 8 inches fools hitters quite often.

What stands out most within the last year however has been his ability to just get the job done. He is a gamer, simple as that, and knows how to get guys out. At the end of the day, that’s how you win ball games, which is why he’s a value pick.

Mechanically, he has a very good push off and extension (around 6.5 feet), which gives his pitches that solid approach angle we are looking for in prospects. He definitely has some more mphs in him (tops out at 94-95 right now), as he could generate more energy moving forward with a faster/more rhythmic start to his throwing motion. He is a low floor type of guy that has the intangibles mentally- something I want out of a guy in my bullpen.

Specht will not be the flashiest of picks, but like many mentioned prior on this list is a guy that can make an impact for a big league team. Not every draft pick is going to be a Mike Trout or Chris Sale, so finding value in guys you know can help you win ball games is important. Specht projects to fit that description.

Watch for how Specht mixes his pitches in this video

Look out for Part III: Wyatt’s Watchlist next. It’ll feature 2022-2024 arms to follow over the next couple of years.