Monday Smoke: The True #1 Pitching Prospect?

Howdy, folks!

Any fun Head-to-Head playoff stories yet?

I took over the last-place squad in a 30-team salary cap dynasty league a couple of years ago, and within just two seasons, I transformed it into a powerhouse.

I finished as the #1 seed in the league, cementing my proudest achievement in fantasy history - even more than winning a 16-team football dynasty championship in 5 of the past 7 seasons.

It's been a long haul, starting with our autumn First-Year Player Draft, then free agency in the winter... truly, baseball never truly sleeps.

Anyway, I got knocked out immediately following my bye week.

Sunday Smoke - Prospects Live

Prospects LiveDarren Eisenhauer

Devastating, but this is part of the charm of H2H formats, and I stick by it as the more fun, if less-formulated way of playing our fantasy baseball game.

The good news? My arch-rival (2 seed) also took an early exit. But the other good news? I still have some of the best young talent in baseball, including possibly the next top pitching prospect in the game!

I know, I know, I can hear some of you TINSTAAPP folks right now.

"There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect", for the unacquainted.

There is some truth to this ideology, although its applicability varies widely depending on the format. Every year in my 12-team Yahoo home league, I can pluck a stud or two off the waiver wire - one of whom is probably the actual #1 prospect in baseball, Hurston Waldrep. Yup, he's still under 50 IP, and will retain prospect status for at least one more MLB start.But in a 30-teamer? I think abandoning pitching prospects entirely is a fool's errand. Yes, you have to be patient, but there are roughly only 5 MLB starters per team at a time, meaning there is a scarcity at the position in deeper leagues.

In my great rebuild, I spent some round 2 draft capital on a lefty out of Massachusetts named Thomas White. That's feeling pretty good right about now.

He's the next #1 prospect if you ask me, although there are certainly powerful alternatives that may float your boat.

I profiled Robby Snelling's redemption arc last week, and Trey Yesavage is certainly a candidate to be the next top dog with his absurd strikeouts...oh, and Andrew Painter remains a stud, despite his middling 2025 comeback campaign.

But Thomas White is still my pick, and I'll sell you on why.

And of course, Jonah Tong and Payton Tolle just planted their own flags with fantastic debuts at the major league level, so we'll be diving into both of them to see what their future holds in MLB and for our dynasty teams!

Thomas White, SP, MIA

I know it can sound a little sleazy, but I have to take credit for my Thomas White love if I'm going to burn y'all with a Jackson Baumeister on occasion. Still holding out hope for the latter, something was evidently VERY wrong in 2025!

But as I was saying, I think it's necessary to provide testimonials if you're going to have the gall to give advice in this great game of baseball. Beyond the talented folks at Prospects Live, there are numerous other outlets, independent analysts, and even random X accounts that churn out opinions and hot takes.

There are new formulas emerging all the time, so if you're going to come in with hot takes on your own, again, I feel like you need to bring receipts once in a while.

Thomas White is one of my favorite "receipts" thus far in my brief stint as a baseball analyst (sounds more appropriate than "guy who says things"). I first noticed that he got paid nearly as much as the more-hyped Noble Meyer, despite being selected considerably later, at 35th overall.

He was a 6'5 lefty with a projectable frame who whipped gas with encouraging secondaries, who had just been brought into one of the best organizations for pitching development in the league. So, it was confusing that basically no one was interested in this guy.

White's pre-draft hype train was also derailed by the COVID era.

As a 14-year-old in 2019, he was catching attention by ripping off 91mph heat! If not for the lack of game action in the following year or so, I think we could have seen a "Strasburg-ian" tier level of hype surrounding White, launching him near the top of the first round.

Instead, he fell to the Marlins at a great value, and has nothing but pitch at an elite level outside his first few innings following the draft.

Even as recently as this season, it seemed like the prospecting community was more interested in Travis Sykora (another one of my favorite receipts) and kind of ignored Mr. White. He's slowly but surely forced his way up the ranks, but it wasn't until recently that seemingly every analyst recognized just how good Thomas White might be.

His recent ten-strikeouts/zero-hit performance may have had something to do with that.

With other top pitching prospects getting the call, I also think it was just the perfect timing as folks started looking around to see who might be next.

Let's take a look at what Matt Thompson wrote about Thomas White in Prospects Live's top-100 ranks, where White sits at #22 overall:

The Marlins went pitcher-heavy at the top of the 2023 draft, taking Noble Meyer in the first round and following it up with the big lefty Thomas White in the Comp round. It’s very early, but White looks like the better arm, with two-plus pitches and the ability to touch 97. White has an easy delivery despite the long arm action. He attacks hitters from a low ¾ arm slot. His fastball sits around 95 with good carry and works best up in the zone. It’s a high-spin offering from a low slot. His primary off-speed pitch is a slurvy breaking ball, and he relies on it for a majority of his whiffs. It has been called a curveball and a slider due to the depth and sweeping action of the pitch. White’s changeup is his third pitch for now, but it also has the potential to be a plus pitch down the line. It has good shape, with late fade. He has done a much better job of throwing strikes. His command has jumped a full grade over the course of the 2024 season, and now he has average command and could improve if he manages to shorten his arm action. White looks like a number two starter, and if the changeup takes a step forward, the ceiling might even be higher.

That big lefty has gotten even bigger, by the way. Take a look at the video I posted, and then go search up some pics of the kid coming out of the draft.

He has packed on 30 lbs., and it appears to be very good (muscular) weight.

The fact that basically no one is talking about this is kind of amazing - we have gone from a lanky 6'5 210lb kid to a 240lb man - he's even got the makings of a beard starting to emerge!

As Matt Thompson wrote, White offers two plus pitches, the chance for his changeup to be very good as well. He's now built like a true workhorse and is in the hands of an elite pitching development org. I had him as the #13 overall prospect back in 2024, an aggressive ranking, but he is now firmly inside the top 10 for me.

If the Marlins didn't feature some kid named Eury Perez, I'd say Thomas White was locked in to be their ace of the future. Instead, he might just end up as the best #2 starter in all of baseball!

I expect a 2025 MLB debut, with 130 major league innings a possibility in 2026.