As the 2025 MLB Draft quickly approaches, the Prospects Live team wants to make your life as easy as possible. In this series of articles, I'll be providing team-by-team analysis of their recent draft trends, their available draft capital for 2025, any areas of the draft they've heavily targeted, as well as a few names in this year's class that might fit into their historically preferred archetype.
Max Ellingsen
This analysis isn't sourced for the upcoming year, nor is it a guarantee the organization won't pivot from what they've done in the past. Simply put, this article aims to provide an in-depth look at teams and their recent draft classes to try and decipher trends that could help uncover players your favorite team might be targeting. It's far from a perfect science, but I've done my job if it makes things easier to follow on draft day.
Toronto Blue Jays
- 2025 Bonus Pool Value - $10,314,600 (20th)
- Top 100 selections - 8, 81
There’s not a ton of capital to work with in this one after some recent offseason spending for the neighbors up north, but the Blue Jays should be able to land a relatively intriguing prospect atop their system with the eighth overall pick. They’ve got just two picks in the top hundred and should be relatively hamstrung after their first rounder.
2024 Draft Overview
Toronto did well for themselves after Trey Yesavage ($110,000 overslot) fell to them at pick twenty, and they continued the pitching route with Mississippi State right hander Khal Stephen ($370,000 underslot) and high school left hander Johnny King ($480,000 overslot) in the third. Sean Keys (slot) was a data darling out of Bucknell and had plenty of suitors in the middle rounds of this class while Nick Mitchell ($50,000 underslot) saved them some money. Jackson Wentworth (slot) was an interesting pickup in the fifth round, however they chose to save some money in the following rounds and go big on prep right hander Carson Messina ($400,000 overslot) in the 12th. They picked up a few more prepsters in Troy Guthrie ($50,000 overslot) and Gavin Smith ($50,000 overslot), but the story of this draft is definitely the pitchers at the top of this draft. The trio of Yesavage, Stephen, and King bring a nice mix of upside and production that’s paid dividends throughout their young careers.
2023 Draft Overview
The Blue Jays saved some money on the talented prep shortstop Arjun Nimmala ($750,000 underslot) in the first round, and they used that to scoop up Juaron Watts-Brown ($225,000 overslot) and Landen Maroudis ($950,000 overslot) in the third and fourth rounds. They followed with Connor O’Halloran ($50,000 underslot), Jace Bohrofen (slot), and Nick Goodwin (slot), a nice little run of college talent that helped them get back closer to even on the bonus pool total. They had quite a few players in this class end up not signing in the later rounds, perhaps a product of not saving all that much money in the middle rounds to make up for their spending early, however I’d still say this draft has been a relatively successful venture thus far. A lot of it will come down to Nimmala and his continued progression, but I think Watts-Brown has a chance to be a big leaguer down the road and could provide some value for a class that’s a bit light on depth.
2022 Draft Overview
They went big with prep lefty Brandon Barriera ($520,000 overslot) in the first with this one, betting on the mix of stuff and pitchability in the young hurler’s arsenal. They took their foot off the gas just a bit with Oregon’s Josh Kasevich ($220,000 underslot), however they dropped it right back down and went pedal to the metal with prep shortstop Tucker Toman ($1,150,000 overslot). Cade Doughty (slot) followed closely behind while Alan Roden ($125,000 underslot) has blossomed into a really nice player for their organization, however the rest of the class had to play a substantial amount of catchup considering their aggressive spending atop this class and lacks a considerable amount of intrigue. I think if Toronto could do this one again, they’d likely choose to alter their strategy a bit and invest their money with some additional caution. They’ve gotten hosed to some extent in the injury department, but when you invest heavily in a small basket of players, that’s bound to be an unfortunate side effect.
Early Round Demographics
They’ve done well at taking what comes to them and capitalizing on a draft day slide, not necessarily tied down to one strict ideology in the war room. They’re clearly not averse to taking an arm early, either, a route some clubs just outright refuse to take with their early picks. The common theme across the board here is performance and track record, with the vast majority of their top picks having shown they can perform against the best of their respective levels. Though it’s not necessarily a stark production-over-tools scenario, I think having proved you can play carries some weight for Toronto’s decision makers.
Late Round Demographics
They’ve done quite well with position player development in the mid to late rounds, with the aforementioned Roden being one of the bigger success stories of late. They don’t move a ton of money around into the latter half of their classes so it’s unlikely we’ll see some kind of major prep swing late, however last year’s try at Carson Messina perhaps signals a change in their philosophy. If we do see them take a shot, I’d expect it to be in the low to mid six figures.
Names to Know
Kyson Witherspoon, Oklahoma RHP - Witherspoon’s got an unconventional operation on the mound, however he’s dominated all season long and has electric stuff. His fastball-slider combo plays well off of one another and I think the Jays would be comfortable taking him into the system with a top ten pick. I think he makes a lot of sense.
Billy Carlson, High School SS - Carlson could go most anywhere in the top twelve picks and it wouldn’t surprise me, but Toronto especially makes sense given the state of their farm. Carlson brings a ton of tools to a system that needs position player upside while still carrying the pedigree Toronto seems to look for in their draftees.
Aiva Arquette, Oregon State SS - I’d be surprised if Arquette slips to eight, but crazier things have certainly happened. He’s the best college hitter in the class and would be a great example of the Blue Jays taking exactly what the draft gives them.
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