This is my debut article on the Prospects Live platform, and what better way to start than by diving straight into one of the hobby's most debated and misunderstood aspects of card collecting: grading multipliers and ROI on "1st" Bowman Chrome autos, specific to MiLB players who have not yet graduated from prospect status.
For those who saw the first part of this article on Substack, you know that I have built a tool that measures grading returns, using real-world sales data. My price tracking tool is currently running for ~1300 players who have ungraded, 1st BCA base cards, split between hitting and pitching prospects. From there, we adapted the tool to include graded cards, allowing us to calculate multipliers across the different grades.
The first article focused specifically on pitching prospects who had ungraded card sales and at least one sale in either PSA 9 or PSA 10 condition. The results were interesting: PSA 10s offer real upside, but PSA 9s (especially on expensive ungraded cards) can actually lose money after fees. This indicates that high-end collector's may be condition sensitive, seeming to have a boom-or-bust mindset when it comes to graded cards.
In part 2, we shift our focus to hitters. Our sample size is much more robust, with over 500 hitting prospects. We have data for 470 players in PSA 10, 380 players in PSA 9 and 64 players in PSA 8 condition. PSA 8s were not included in part 1 was due to the sparse nature of sales in this condition, but with 60+ hitters, I felt comfortable analyzing this grade as well. Although the data is still thin, the larger sample size offers a more reliable insight into how PSA 8s are valued.
Throughout this analysis, our dataset was split into pre-defined price brackets based on ungraded card values. Using this more robust dataset, we see clear ROI trends across various card tiers, and can now draw stronger conclusions.
If you're a card collector, flipper, or like prospecting, this article is aimed at giving you the math behind grading, so you can make more informed, data backed decisions instead of relying on outdated rules of thumb, gut feelings or guesswork.
Average $ Change & Multipliers by Price Tier:
With over 500 hitting prospects in our dataset, we have a very strong dataset that allows us to explore how grading affects value across every price tier. Here is a look at the average absolute change and associated multiplier for PSA 8, PSA 9 and PSA 10 split by the card's ungraded price bracket:
What the numbers tell us: PSA 10 is the only consistently profitable grade. Across every price tier, PSA 10s deliver solid returns, especially for cards priced above $25. This aligns with the results of our pitching prospect analysis. Cards under $10 show high multipliers, but ROI is diminished by grading costs and marketplace fees.
PSA 9 is where things get risky. It is a very volatile grade, especially with high tier cards. Many of our highest priced cards have a PSA 9 price that is lower than their ungraded prices. This indicates a boom-or bust market. Cards either gem (and gain value) or fall short (and lose value).
PSA 8 is consistently losing value. If you are looking for a cost-effective entry point, PSA 8s are a good starting point. But for flipping or prospecting, they are almost always a losing proposition. The market often seems to lag behind, and the absolute and percent losses of higher priced cards can be incredibly punishing!
The market is heavily biased towards PSA 10s. PSA 9s are often treated as if they are disappointing, not as a compromise. PSA 8s are almost always negatives. Though, as we saw in our first article, PSA gem rates have trended down over recent years. I wonder if multipliers will increase for lower grades.
The High-End Trap: When Grading Hurts More Than It Helps
Ungraded cards with a value of $200 or more becomes a high stakes game when it comes to grading. PSA 10s offer huge upside, but does the risk outweigh the reward?
Some of the biggest names in prospecting saw a loss in value when graded PSA 9, sometimes up to 20%. And remember, that's before accounting for grading costs and selling fees. And this isn't an anomaly, it is a clear trend in our dataset - both hitters and pitchers.
But don't let that discourage you, instead we can inform our strategies. Only grade high-end cards if you're confident they will gem (though there is a rather inconsistent standard of grading upheld by some grading companies). Regardless of standards, if you have any concerns, it may be smarter to sell ungraded.
Path to Profit:
Across both hitting and pitching prospects, one truth remains constant. PSA 10 is the only consistently profitable grade. Interestingly, certain price tiers provide a higher than expected bang for you buck, while others are only marginally profitable.
Mid-tier raw cards offer the most balanced and reliable upside. The risk remains present - if the card does not gem you will stay take your loss, but it is far less painful than missing on a $100-$200+ submission. Somewhere between $25-$100 feels like the sweet spot where the potential reward may outweigh the risk.
That said, part of prospecting is identfying and investing in market inefficiencies so don't let that dissuade you from grading players you believe have high ceilings. Using Hobby+ could be a good resource to find players with higher ceilings
On the flip side, I would recommend staying away from lower-end cards. The multipliers are flashy, but factoring in fees, supplies, and selling costs, the profit becomes non-existent.
Final Thoughts: Grade Smarter
Grading can be one of the most powerful tools in the hobby, but only when used strategically. This analysis confirms what many already believed. PSA 10 is the only consistently profitable outcome. Accounting for a flat rate $18 grading fee + a ~15% third-party marketplace fee, these are the only variations and prices that are profitable
Across every price tier, the data tells the same story:
- PSA 10s drive value — with ROI increasing meaningfully in the $25–$100 range.
- PSA 9s are risky, especially on high-end cards. Once grading fees are included, all end up returning less than their raw value.
- PSA 8s are almost always losses, with multipliers falling well below 1.0x, especially as card prices rise.
If you're grading to flip, this data should help sharpen your strategy:
- Focus on cards in the $25–$100 raw range for the best balance of upside and downside.
- Be selective with high-end cards — unless you're extremely confident in gem potential, the downside of a PSA 9 could erase your margin.
- Avoid low-end cards unless you’re operating in a low-fee environment and have high gem confidence.
And finally, grading isn’t just about the math — it’s about the market. Collector expectations, gem rates, and grading consistency all play a role. Tools like Hobby+ can help identify prospects worth targeting, but your grading choices still carry risk. Anytime you identify any issues with the card or feel uncertain. It may best best to avoid submitting the card to be graded. The thrill of the chase can be fun, but overlooking issues can lead to big losses.
Prospects Live Staff
Discussion