I'm excited to bring back the PLIVE+ Deep Sea Diving series that had a few entries last year. There's a lot of joy in covering prospects without much hype who could turn into players worth rostering in deep league formats. PLIVE+ is the perfect tool to help find them by utilizing the statistical filters in the app.
Today I'm going back to catch up on the 13 players covered over the three Deep Sea Diving articles from last year.
The PLIVE+ app can be found here and is available at our Tier 60 membership level:
Smada
Article on 6/12/24
I looked at players with interesting projections but low ownership rates on Fantrax.
Christopher Familia, OF NYY (Double-A)
Christopher Familia was covered as being an interesting low-owned, old-for-level, power-only bat. He had a spring injury and rehabbed in CPX before just getting back to High-A at the time. Unfortunately Familia struggled mightily and ended the season with just 129 PA and a 67 wRC+ at High-A as a 24 year old. The K% surged from previously digestible levels. Familia has started the season at Double-A but appears to be a bench bat appearing in just 5 games this season. He was a pretty long shot at the time, and is basically a non-prospect at this point.
Steward Berroa, OF TOR (Triple-A)
The interesting speed profile was Steward Berroa who at the time was putting up some solid numbers in Triple-A and had SB peak projections among Chandler Simpson and Victor Scott II. As predicted, he did get a chance at some big league playing time but it was far from an everyday opportunity. Berroa would steal 6 bases in 45 PA, many of which came in pinch-running situations. In 2025 he's returned to Triple-A and has 9 SB in 86 PA, but the bat has been anemic with a 43 wRC+. Berroa was actually DFA'd two days ago and I could see him filling a pinch-runner role with another team in the future.
Jhonny Severino, 3B/SS PIT (Single-A)
When I covered him, Jhonny Severino had put up some loud HR and SB numbers in his first 100 PA or so at the Complex and projected at peak for 27 and 16 SB by PLIVE+. Severino would continue to rake at the Complex before getting another 28 games at Single-A to end the season. Severino ended 2024 with 16 HR and 16 SB over 343 PA. At Single-A he saw the contact rate plummet and the K% nearly double to 30%. He's started 2025 back at Single-A and the results have been similar with very poor plate skills. At this point PLIVE+ still likes the HR & SB combo, but sees him as a below average bat at peak (87 wRC+).
Article on 6/20/24
After adding more filters to PLIVE+ to play with, I decided to look at low-ownership players who fit interesting projection profiles.
Dylan O'Rae, 2B/OF MIL (Double-A)
Dylan O'Rae was the only low-owned player to meet the peak projection criteria of 20+ SB, .335+ OBP and 100+ wRC+. I was writing about O'Rae right after his promotion to Double-A. The speed & walk profile continued at Double-A but his lack of quality contact kept the BABIP and subsequent BA low. Over 298 PA at Double-A he ran a 68 wRC+ while stealing 29 bags. O'Rae played in spring but has yet to appear in a minor league game this season. I'm assuming this is due to injury, but I can't find any info on it.
Leandro Arias, 2B/SS BAL (High-A)
Leandro Arias popped as the only low-ownership player on a list for peak projections with decent power and low strikeouts: .180+ ISO and < 20% K. At the time of writing, Arias was running hot through his first 15 or so games at Single-A. Afterwards Arias went a bit cold but still earned a call up to High-A as a 19-year old. He's returned to High-A to start the season and has had some excellent plate skills (15.1% BB, 9.4% K) but minimal power impact with just 2 doubles over 106 PA. The ISO projection since writing has plummeted but the plate skills still keep Arias projected as a near-average bat at peak and he's currently the 61st ranked hitter at High-A.
Aneudis Mordan, 1B/C BAL (High-A)
Aneudis Mordan was the only low-ownership player with big power (28+ HR per 600 PA at peak) while being at most 20 years old. Mordan played on the same team as Leandro Arias and also got promoted to High-A by the end of the season. The K% climbed at Single-A after writing and has remained elevated at High-A to start the year. The calling card power nearly disappeared and this season he's hit just a single HR in 72 PA with a 70 wRC+. He's still catching some, but playing more 1B at present which means that power has got to return for any hope of a big league future.
Owen Wild, RHP TB (Double-A)
Owen Wild appeared as the only low-ownership player on a list of SP who went deep into games (5+ IP/G with a solid K% (18%+). At the time of writing, Wild had just began his High-A domination and by the end of the season ended up fairly well known. After writing Wild finished the year in High-A with 10 starts of a 25.1% K-BB and a 2.95 ERA. He's started the 2025 season at Double-A but didn't make his first start until April 22nd. The substack Beyond the Monster recently interviewed Wild and he mentioned his arm was starting to bug him at the end of the season and when he began to ramp up in the offseason it didn't quite feel right and they shut him down until January. He didn't specifically say it was his elbow that bothered him in the interview, but it didn't sound like everything came back 100% clean from imaging. Wild's been ramping back up since then and has been on a pitch count which led to abbreviated starts in his first two. He actually won the Southern League Pitcher of the Week for his first two outings where he totaled 7 innings allowing just 1 hit and 2 walks while striking out 7. Unfortunately his last start he got knocked around giving up 6 ER over 3 IP with 3 BB and 1 K. It's clear Wild is still trying to get back to normal and I'm interested to see what he looks like after he gets off the pitch count. Wild's still just 3% owned on Fantrax.
Article on 7/26/24
I attempted to find the "next" solid contributors. Specifically the "next" Spencer Horwitz, Michael Busch, Jacob Young, Brenton Doyle, and Alec Burleson by finding comps of their preseason peak projections.
RJ Schreck, OF TOR (Double-A)
RJ Schreck came up as a statistical projection comp for Spencer Horwitz. At the time he had just been called up to Double-A by the Mariners after scorching High-A with a 140 wRC+ as an old-for-level 2023 senior-sign out of Vanderbilt. Funny enough, just two games after the article came out Schreck was traded to the Blue Jays, the same team Horwitz played for in 2024. The next 28 games in Double-A went extremely well for Schreck posting a 153 wRC+ with 5 HR and 5 SB over 114 PA. He went back to Double-A to start 2025 and has once again hit well with a 131 wRC+ over 70 PA. He did miss about two weeks in the middle of April with an injury but has come back strong. I wouldn't call Schreck a must-own by any stretch, but a big-league cup of coffee isn't out of the equation with a strong season. At the time he was a 0% owned player on Fantrax and now he's at 2% so I'll call that a deep-league win.
Addison Barger, 3B/OF TOR (MLB)
I didn't specifically go only low-owned players in this article as I was looking to spread the quality of players around for comps. Addison Barger came up with similar peak projections for Michael Busch, even after rough MLB stints. He's yet to make an impact in the majors this season playing in a platoon at 3B and RF after spending the first couple of weeks in Triple-A. There's upper-end bat speed here and if he can get the quality of contact aligned he could still end up breaking out. If you can still hold onto Barger in 20+ team leagues, I'd do it.
Braiden Ward, CF/LF/2B COL (Double-A)
Jacob Young accumulated 521 PA and stole 33 bases for the Nats as an elite defensive centerfielder in 2025 despite really poor bat. So I wanted to see if I could find a similar long-shot. Braiden Ward came up as 0% owned, speedy CF comp for Young. In 2024 during his age-25 season, Ward made it up to Double-A for the first time and put up a 111 wRC+ while stealing 32 bags over 323 PA there. Ward has returned to the level and he's continued to hit (140 wRC+) and run (7 SB) playing in a less than full time capacity (65 PA). Ward is still 0% owned on Fantrax and yet is even more interesting than when I learned about him last season. He's still a long-shot to be come a big league player, let alone an everyday player, but crazier things have happened!
Cade Marlowe, OF SEA (Triple-A)
I took a different route when trying to find a comp projection comp for Brenton Doyle who was essentially a non-prospect with the bat prior to his breakout. Cade Marlowe fit the profile somewhat because of the MLB debut, high K-rate while showing a little bit of pop and some stolen base potential. His 2023 cup of coffee went pretty well overall as he hit 3 HR and got 4 SB over 100 PA with a 114 wRC+. Unfortunately the Triple-A numbers remained sub-par in 2023 and also 2024 despite putting up a fantasy line that we'd drool over in the bigs. Marlowe would get just 9 PA in majors last season and he was outrighted and cleared waivers before spring training. He's currently on the Triple-A 60-Day IL with a undisclosed injury. The end of Marlowe's write up from the article still sums up the comp well:
This comparison to Doyle isn't the best as Marlowe is already 27 yrs old, defensively good but not elite and still looking for a real chance to play in MLB. If anything though, it highlights how crazy Doyle's improvement has been.
Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B BOS (Double-A)
The next player to find a comp for was Alec Burleson who broke out in 2024 with a high-contact profile. Blaze Jordan fit that profile pretty well as he managed a .261/.305/.388 slash with a 4.7% BB and 12.1% K at Double-A last year as a 21 year old. However after getting to 18 HR over 525 PA in 2023 he only managed 7 HR across 380 PA in 2024. Blaze is back repeating Double-A to start the season and it's gone much better as he's added some walks to his profile for the first time since 2022. The Swing% is way down but he's maintaining the contact rate thus far. He's still just had 2 HR over his first month of games but if he can gain the game power while keeping the plus-OBP, Jordan has a shot of becoming a half decent player. Age continues to be on his side and this is a player that maybe buying for now before a power surge comes.
Gabriel Gonzalez, OF MIN (High-A)
Gabriel Gonzalez also looked like a decent peak statistical Burleson comp, just a little further behind Blaze Jordan. Gonzalez had some shine in 2023 when he put 9 balls over the fence in High-A over 200 PA as a 19 year-old. Traded, and returning to High-A, Gonzalez didn't show the same game power and dealt with some injuries which led to a league-average line for the season. Unlike Blaze Jordan above, the profile has remained nearly identical in early 2025 as he repeats High-A. Just a lot of contact with a 7.5% BB and 12.3% K with 2 HR over 106 PA, good for a 132 wRC+. It's likely Gonzalez gets pushed up to Double-A at some point this season and how he fares against upper-level pitching will be a great test. If he ever figures out how to elevate the ball consistently he could become a pretty popular name again.
Summary
The articles were not necessarily about recommending players, but highlighting the ones that stood out statistically in some way in depths of the minor leagues. But at the same time I'm interested at seeing a "win" rate here. It's a small sample of 13 players covered, 12 of them were hitters and most were 0-1% owned on Fantrax at the time.
Players with MLB Time
Steward Berroa looks like a quad-A pinch runner type but that's exactly what we were expecting from him. There's still potential for some run in another org as an injury fill-in where he could be a short term helpful SB asset in fantasy. I'll call highlighting him a win. ✅
Cade Marlowe is a certified quad-A player and it's unlikely he becomes much more. The projection comp was a stretch, but he's still not looking like a player who'll take any sort of jump. ❌
Addison Barger hasn't taken that step forward yet, but still has time on his side to make adjustments to form a solid big league career. ❔
Old-For-Level Longshots
RJ Schreck might be the biggest win of the group as he's hitting in the upper minors and has a shot at a big league career despite being pretty unknown at the time of writing. ✅
Braiden Ward was the longest of long shots covered and he's still got some life to him. Who knows where he ends up but I'll have fun following up on him. The fact that he's still hitting at this point is a win. ✅
Christopher Familia really struggled after highlighting him and is struggling again in 2025. He's looking like a non-prospect given the contact rates. ❌
OK prospects who are still OK prospects
Blaze Jordan might have a new skill and that's somewhat exciting. We'll call it a win for now ✅
Gabriel Gonzalez is basically the same player he was and while still young is in third year with High-A PAs. ❔
Dylan O'Rae performed poorly by wRC+ at Double-A as a 20 year-old but it's possible that it was BABIP driven. He hasn't played yet in 2025 so the jury is still out. ❔
Low Level Prospects
Aneudis Mordan hasn't done well since highlighting him with the calling card power disappearing. We can't write him off completely, but he's not a player that needs to be rostered at this point. ❌
Jhonny Severino now projects as a below average bat at peak making him a lot less interesting than at the time of writing. ❌
Leandro Arias still has some strong plate skills but isn't showing the game power that he had in his small sample prior to highlighting him. Jury is still out on Arias. ❔
The Pitcher
Owen Wild shoved after highlighting him and while he's ramping back up from injury there's still potential. Given he was 0% owned prior, it's a win. ✅
That's 5 wins, 4 losses and 4 wait and see. Again not all that important, but fun to track. Next time out we'll start diving into some low-owned projection standouts in 2025.
Discussion