Let’s make one thing clear straight out the gates: It’s January.
Mock drafts are inherently futile, especially more than seven months out from the actual draft itself. College ball doesn’t start for another six weeks and we’re yet to see how some of the premier high school athletes are going to look coming out of an important winter of lifting and training. That said, we did lean on industry conversations, as well as our own player evaluations to build Mock Draft 1.0.
This seems to be a strong class, especially at the top. There are top-tier talents available deep into the first round this year. That hasn’t necessarily been the case of late.
High school talents rule the day, though the upside of college hitters in this class can’t be understated.
1. Baltimore Orioles
Druw Jones, Outfield, Wesleyan
What a perfect year for General Manager Mike Elias and Co.™ to be drafting no. 1 overall. A class chockfull of talent on both the college and high school side, Baltimore could go any number of directions. In this case, we think Elias grabs the lanky, projectable high school star with mammoth upside in Jones. While the Orioles have preferred to go with under-slot college bats of late, when given the opportunity to select a franchise cornerstone, Elias selected Carlos Correa no. 1 overall in 2012. Granted, that was a signing bonus haircut too. If we know anything about the Orioles, they’ll chase a deal when in-between choices. Jones has superstar upside and will almost assuredly stay up the middle of the field. He’s a top-of-the-scale runner and defender with easy plus raw power and a burgeoning hit tool. Some see a Byron Buxton-esque final product. If Baltimore goes the college route, keep an eye on Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee here.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Elijah Green, Outfield, IMG Academy
The Diamondbacks and Scouting Director Deric Ladnier have not been shy with selecting high-upside preps in recent years and we believe that trend continues here with Green. Whether it be Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Blake Walston or Jordan Lawlar, Arizona has a type. They’re seeking stars and building a robust talent pool for the future. There may not be a higher ceiling than Green in this entire class. Yes, there’s some swing-and-miss, but if we’re ultimately talking about a guy who plays centerfield and hits .240 with 40 homers, you’re okay with that tradeoff. Termarr Johnson makes a ton of sense here too, as do some of the elite college performers like Brooks Lee and Jace Jung. With Arizona still a few years from competing, we think they once again jump at long-term superstar upside and go with a high school bat.
3. Texas Rangers
Termarr Johnson, Second Base, Mays
The best scouts in the world will reiterate one thing on repeat. Hit tool over everything. If a kid can really bang, don’t ask so many questions that you paralyze your judgement. That’s Johnson. A majority of evaluators in this industry really, truly believe this is an extraordinary bat with perennial all-star upside. When folks say it’s the best high school bat in two decades, they’re not being hyperbolic. While Johnson may be the odds-on favorite to go here if Jones is off the board, any number of college bats fit here too. Chase DeLauter, Robert Moore, Daniel Susac, Jace Jung, Gavin Cross, take your pick. In a perfect world, I would imagine Texas would love to find a player who can stay up the middle of the field given where they’re picking. But if Johnson continues to rake this spring like he did all summer, he’ll be a popular name at the top.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Brock Jones, Outfield, Stanford
The Pirates have focused on staying up the middle of the field in the first round the last few years, and that should come as no surprise as it’s Ben Cherington’s M.O. going back to his days in Toronto. Jones may be the biggest x-factor in this class. He’s still figuring out just how talented he is on the field. A lefty stick with power and an extremely mature, patient approach, he’s as good as bet to become a 5-tool player on the college side as anyone in this class. He’s an above average defender in centerfield and is rangy into the gaps. He can run a bit too. As he matures, the arm could develop into average with reps. Brooks Lee probably makes a ton of sense here too, as does Chase DeLauter, though Jones has the best odds of the bunch to stay up the middle of the diamond.
5. Washington Nationals
Chase DeLauter, Outfield, James Madison
Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals have certainly favored big-conference college arms with their selections in recent years, Brady House being the notable exception in 2021. It doesn’t appear at this time a college arm will work their way into this tier, so we’re betting on the Nationals chasing physical tools and upside. DeLauter is a fantastic athlete with the chance to stay in centerfield despite his 6-foot-4-inch, 235-pound frame. Most evaluators believe it’s 70-grade all-fields raw power, and he’s getting into a lot of it right now. He’s a plus runner and can do a bit of everything on the field. There’s certainly a chance he matures into an outfield corner, but the bat is more than heavy enough to handle that offensive expectation. Jace Jung makes a ton of sense here too, as does Brooks Lee, but for our money, DeLauter provides the most upside and impact.
6. Miami Marlins
Jace Jung, Third Base, Texas Tech
The Marlins haven’t had a “type” when it’s come to drafting during the Derek Jeter era. Outfield… infield… pitching… college… preps. It’s a bit all over the map both in terms of profile and model. For that reason, we’ve got Miami selecting one of the best hitters in the class in Jung. The kid can really hit. It might be a 60 hit, 60 power combo. The Marlins don’t have an obvious anchor at third base in the intermediate future. Jose Salas could take the reins, but that is far from a given. Jung isn’t a reach either. He might be the best player on the board in this scenario and he may move quick.
7. Chicago Cubs
Dylan Lesko, Right-Handed Pitcher, Buford
The Cubs are an impossibly difficult club to predict. On one hand, Carter Hawkins helped build a long competitive run in Cleveland through the prep ranks. He jumped for Daniel Espino back in 2019, and Lesko could be Chicago’s first crown jewel in that same bucket. On the other, if the Cubs do land a nine-figure star this offseason, their competitive window is obviously much more in the immediacy than it is in a long rebuild. The Cubs’ system is certainly light, so any number of players make sense here. Our guess is Lesko in this circumstance, but you’d have to imagine the Cubs would think long and hard about guys like Brooks Lee, Daniel Susac, Jacob Berry and others still on the board depending on where they view themselves in 2023 and 2024.
8. Minnesota Twins
Gavin Cross, Outfield, Virginia Tech
If history is any indication, the Twins and Gavin Cross are a match made in heaven. The Hokies slugger is one of the bigger bats in the class with massive exit velos and the ability to work mature at-bats. He’s got a good arm and can run a little bit, a profile suited well for right field. He’s a future middle-of-the-order bat from the left side. Brooks Lee makes a ton of sense here too, but unfortunately, given the strength at the top of this class, someone is going to get the short end of the stick, and here, Lee falls a bit further. Cross is cut from the same cloth as Trevor Larnach, Alex Kiriloff, Aaron Sabato and Brent Rooker. It’s definitely a “type” for the Twins.
9. Kansas City Royals
Robert Moore, Second Base, Arkansas
Listen, we’re not in the business of creating family drama. But we don’t need to either. Regardless of the fact he’s Dayton Moore’s son, “Bob” is a really good player, and there are teams inside the first five picks that have very real intrigue in Moore near the top. Some believe he can play shortstop too. He’s a bit of an Alex Bregman type of player. Fantastic athlete, good hitter, with some raw power, and he’s getting to that power thanks to an optimized attack angle and feel for the zone. If he sticks at second base, it may be a double-plus glove. He’s a top-of-the-order stick with impact and tools. It doesn’t hurt he possesses 80-grade makeup either.
10. Colorado Rockies
Brooks Lee, Shortstop, Cal Poly
The Rockies likely aim to stay up the middle of the field or add to their talent on the bump. Coors Field is a challenge to defend and pitch in, so finding good arms and defenders is important. Lee arguably has the best bat-to-ball skills in this class. He’s got a shot to stick at shortstop long-term too with strong actions and a very strong arm. Lee comes from baseball lineage and has been a premier talent since his high school days. Even if he must eventually shift to third base, the bat plays and should be a force at elevation in Denver. Seeing Lee fall to pick no. 10 might surprise some, but if you take a look at the players that went above him, it’s easy to see how competitive it is at the top.
11. New York Mets
Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage
Tom Tanous and Marc Tramuta haven’t shied away from “big stuff” high school arms in recent history and Barriera fits that profile to the T. There’s perhaps no better pure athlete on the bump than Barriera in this class, and he has the arsenal to match. A fastball up to 95 with an electric slider and the ability to turn over an above average changeup, Barriera has a lot of really good baseball ahead of him. It’s a bulldog mentality with a lengthy track record of performing against the best prep hitters in the country. Adding Barriera to a stable of Calvin Ziegler, Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn would make for an explosive future on the bump for the Mets. But with Jacob Berry on the board here, he’s got to be taken into consideration as well.
12. Detroit Tigers
Daniel Susac, Catcher, Arizona
The Tigers have dominated recent drafts thanks to hefty bonus pools and high draft picks. The organization is positioned for success very soon and we think Susac is definitely a good fit. The product of Roseville, California is carried by a big bat and leveraged by his leadership and admiration from his pitching staff and peers. He can hit, he’s got juice, and he can certainly stick behind the plate with a solid average arm and sneaky athleticism. Al Avila and the Tigers organization love big conference performers and Susac was one of the best players in the entire country last season as a true freshman. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Tigers continue to bolster their future down the road by jumping on a talented high school arm here either.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Landon Sims, RHP, Mississippi State
It should come as no surprise we have the Angels going the pitching route as every single one of their 20 selections in 2021 were arms. General Manager Perry Minasian wants to build the organization on the bump and Sims would certainly be a dynamite addition. Armed with the best two-pitch combo in the class, Sims has a chance deliver two 70-grade offerings as a pro if the velo continues to tick up. He’s as fiery a competitor you can find in this class. If he proves he can sustain success over long innings in 2022, he’s the type of talent that fits at the top-half of the first round. 2021 first rounder Sam Bachman arguably possesses two 70-grade pitches. Sims is cut from the same cloth.
14. New York Mets
Blade Tidwell, Right-Handed Pitcher, Tennessee
Awarded the 11th overall pick after failing to sign Kumar Rocker, the Mets still have their organic 14th overall pick to play with as well. Tidwell represents one of the best pitching prospects in the country with prototype size, athleticism and stuff that should entice New York brass. The Mets pick twice in the first round, so it’s a shot to land two impact players. Peyton Pallette makes some sense here so long as he stays healthy, as does Mississippi State hurler Landon Sims if he’s on the board. Gabriel Hughes may be a dark horse here as well. If the Mets choose to go the bat route, Jacob Berry is still on the board and may represent the best pure college bat in the class.
15. San Diego Padres
Jacob Berry, Corner Infield, LSU
If Berry somehow finds a way to slip all the way into AJ Preller’s lap, what an enormous coup it would be for the San Diego Padres. Newly-minted Scouting Director Chris Kemp may be encouraged to go the high school talent route as it’s been a trend for the organization for years, but there’s a massive competitive window open right now for the Padres and Berry could move extremely quick. First baseman Eric Hosmer is controlled through 2025, but has seen his production dip in recent years. Berry could be ready to take the reins at some point in 2024. Still, given their history, it’s hard to imagine the Padres not taking a long, hard look at guys like Noah Schultz, Jackson Ferris and Ian Ritchie Jr. here.
16. Cleveland Guardians
Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East
The 6-foot-9-inch Schultz may be the most unique arm in the 2022 class. Guys his age and size and don’t generally have the body control and feel for the strike zone that Schultz possesses, but alas. The fastball has been up to 94, but the bread and butter may ultimately be a slurvy breaking ball with mammoth spin rates and big two-plane break. He’s shown feel for turning over a changeup as well. The Guardians spent three years optimizing Andrew Miller and may have good idea of what to do with Schultz straight out of the gate. Any number of players make sense here including Peyton Pallette, Carson Whisenhunt, or any of the talented high school arms.
17. Philadelphia Phillies
Dylan Beavers, Outfield, California
After going with high school pitching in the first round of the last two drafts, it may be time for Philadelphia and Brian Barber to restock the position player ranks of their farm. Beavers profiles into all three outfield positions, though he’s probably best suited for a corner when it’s all said and done. A patient hitter with sublime zone control, Beavers works mature at-bats and has shown some serious juice when ambushing mistakes. We could be talking about a solid average hitter with above average or better power as a pro. He’s a plus runner and a decent baserunner. Beavers should be a threat to steal a handful of bases into his prime. It would surprise nobody if Barber went with a prep phenom like Jackson Ferris or Tristan Smith here either.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Independent
What happened with Kumar Rocker in the 2021 Draft was unfortunate, but let’s not mistake, this guy is a horse. He’s got top-of-the-rotation upside with a starting pitcher’s operation and frame. He throws a ton of strikes and has a double-plus breaking ball. It’s not often you can land one of these types of players this deep in the class. Even if Rocker requires surgery, it’s still a sound pick. That being said, medicals will be important here. If it’s a shoulder issue, the narrative changes a bit. He’ll have to be more transparent about his medical records pre-draft this year, but it’s hard to deny the talent and upside this deep. Rocker is going to go earlier than most expect, simply because there will have been teams that fell in love with him in 2021 that never thought they had a shot at him. He may be the best “college” arm available this year too.
19. Oakland Athletics
Ian (J.R.) Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge
The Athletics have been heavy on the prep side in recent years and, with the rebuild in full effect should feel no pressure to draft from the college ranks in 2022. Oakland has had several scouts and cross-checkers in to see Ritchie throw over in recent months, and have certainly leaned toward West Coast arms in recent drafts with the selections of Tyler Soderstrom and Max Muncy. Ritchie has the potential for 5 pitches, though he’s already got feel for three pitches including a fastball up to 97. He commands his pitches well and it’s one of the easier operations you can find in the draft. It’s effortless and buttery with a definitive starter profile. Watch out for Orange Lutheran shortstop Mikey Romero here too.
20. Atlanta Braves
Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina
The Braves had may hay over the past half-decade drafting college arms and, given the position in the draft, there are a handful of college arms who start to make sense here. Whisenhunt is a crafty lefty with a premier body and more in the tank. He’s been up to 95, but most believe he’ll throw more cheese as he matures. Whisenhunt has a dynamic changeup that induces a lot of swing-and-miss and poor contact. It’s an underrated arsenal that figures to gain traction as folks get more eyes on him throughout the spring. Don’t count out guys like Blade Tidwell, Peyton Pallette, or even Kumar Rocker here. It all depends on who’s still on the board and how the Braves set their pecking order.
21. Seattle Mariners
Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy
The Mariners turned over a new leaf in 2021, bucking the trend of seeking college pitchers are the top and instead electing to go prep-prep-prep with their first three picks. According to GM Jerry Dipoto and Scouting Director Scott Hunter it was a chance to fill the next “bucket” of the organization and prepare for longevity and sustained success. We think Seattle goes that direction again in 2022, selecting the 6-foot-4-inch southpaw with the loose, whippy arm, huge fastball and feel for spinning the baseball. In a lot of ways, it’s some of the same indicators they saw in Logan Gilbert in 2018, albeit the inverse in terms of age and handedness. Ferris’ arm talent is incredible and he can really flip in a hammer curveball. It’s incredible clay for an organization that has shown real talent for developing arms in recent years.
22. St. Louis Cardinals
Tristan Smith, LHP, Boiling Springs
The Cardinals have a knack for sitting back and watching how the draft plays out, seeing who might fall into their lap. Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, might that happen again in 2022? In a year so stacked with high school pitching, should a high-upside prepster slip to 22, which seems almost certain, it may be a match made in heaven. Noah Schultz, Brock Porter, they all make sense here. There’s any number of players that fit, but if the Cardinals go the college pitching route and East Carolina southpaw Carson Whisenhunt is still around, or even Arkansas righty Peyton Pallette, they’re a couple names to keep tabs on here as well.
23. Toronto Blue Jays
Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas
The Blue Jays have drafted awfully well of late and those selections are beginning to pay dividends on the field. Their first round picks are a smattering of demographics, so they could go any direction here. We think they’ll go with a college performer this year to help leverage their competitive window. Pallette is a big conference performer with huge stuff and some metrically favorable traits in his stuff. He’s been up to 99, but sits 92-95 with a big hammer curve. If not Pallette, keep an eye on guys like Logan Tanner, Jordan Beck and others in that bucket.
24. Boston Red Sox
Kevin Parada, Catcher Georgia Tech
The Red Sox have absolutely loved the West Coast in recent years and we believe that continues, to a degree, in 2022. Parada is a native of Pasadena, California, though his skills have only amplified at Georgia Tech. It’s a really good bat with the potential for a solid average tool and above average power from a premium position. He’s come a long ways with his ability to block balls in the dirt, and most evaluators believe it’s at least an average arm behind the plate that should hold runners effectively. Even if Parada can’t stay behind the plate, it’s a first round bat and he’s more than athletic enough to handle third base or certainly first base in a pinch. Keep an eye on Mikey Romero here.
25. New York Yankees
Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
While the Yankees have targeted bats early the past few years, they've also shown that they are willing to pull the trigger on a prep arm that tickles their fancy. The Bronx Bombers doled out a big over-slot bonus to Brock Selvidge in the 3rd round last year to secure the prep hurler they coveted. In this scenario, Brock Porter is too hard to ignore. Porter has the kind of arm speed that you simply cannot teach and the body and frame that looks well suited to handle a pro level workload. There's present fastball velocity into the mid 90s, touching 99, and his changeup is one of the best in the draft. He'll need to develop a better feel for spin and the breaking ball, but it’s plenty projectable and the Yankees are one of the premier organizations in terms of developing young arms. Porter's upside rivals just about any arm in this class and he represents a great value pick late in round 1.
26. Chicago White Sox
Walter Ford, RHP, Pace
Ever since reclassifying from the 2022 class, Ford’s name has continued to generate helium as more and more organizations have been out to see him and have had the chance to chat. This is premium arm talent up to 97 mph at just 16 years old. He’s got definitive feel for spin, and although Ford is still learning how to harness his big stuff, the arm talent alone has some teams drooling. In terms of pure stuff, there’s some similarities to 2021’s Bubba Chandler. The White Sox dipped into the prep ranks pretty heavily in 2020 and 2021, and we believe that trend continues as they work to stretch what’s appearing to be the potential for a very long competitive window. One college arm to watch here is Gabriel Hughes, a righty out of Gonzaga.
27. Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Neto, Shortstop, Campbell
The Brewers are a tough team to crack. In 2020, Tod Johnson and Co.™ went with all position players. 2021 was much of the same with three of their first four picks being position players. There’s still work to do, but the Brewers’ farm is in good shape these days. While Brice Turang is a good prospect, he’s probably not enough to warrant avoiding a solid shortstop prospect in the draft and Neto fits that bill. A good hitter with solid power, Neto is carried by mature at-bats and impactful bat-to-ball skills. He’s got an average arm, but his athleticism and bounce on the dirt help him project to stay at the position for the long-haul. Picking at 27, the Brewers are squarely in a position to see what type of talent tumbles and falls into their lap.
28. Houston Astros
Carter Young, SS, Vanderbilt
Young has been a popular name among scouts since his u16 days in Selah, Washington, though he’s really come into his own and tapped into his big baseball upside the last two seasons. The Astros love athletes and they like players who can stay up the middle. That’s certainly Young. Swing-and-miss concerns are present, so he’ll need to clean that up a bit in 2022, but if the hit tool ticks forward, we’re talking about and above average shortstop with at least an above average arm. Those don’t grow on trees. This will be Houston’s first first or second round pick since 2019, so it’s paramount they land value and begin replenishing what’s become an anemic farm system due to lack of access to top amateur talent.
29. Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Dutkanych, RHP, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep
The Tampa Bay Rays never, ever waver. They go for talent that projects to stick up the middle of the field, anchored by solid hit tools and athleticism. If not that, the occasional high-upside prep arm, a la Nick Bitsko, draws them in. With such a deep year for prep pitching, it would make sense Rob Metzler go that route. Dutkanych has a bulldog mentality and pitches to both sides of the plate with a fastball that touches 96 right now. He’s got a hard, firm slider in the upper-80s and a loopier curveball that projects well. Any other year, he may be a unanimous top-three prep arm in the class, but given the depth and talent at the top of this class, landing such a talent at the end of the first round would be a huge win for Tampa.
30. Los Angeles Dodgers
Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran
Outside of Termarr Johnson, there’s a large segment of the scouting community who believe Romero is the best pure hitter in the entire class. The bat-to-ball skills here are really impressive. He can expand the zone at times, but not to the detriment of his ability to work at-bats and use the whole field. Romero simply looks like a shortstop. He’s got the fluidity and tempo on the dirt, and plenty of arm to handle the position, even if it’s not sensational. He may never hit more than 15 homers in a season, but when you’re talking about a kid who will stick up the middle and could hit .280, it doesn’t matter. If there’s anyone who can squeeze every bit of athletic talent out of a kid, it’s Los Angeles.
31. San Francisco Giants
Cam Collier, Third Base, Chipola College
After going heavy on college bats the prior two years, President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi and Scouting Director Michael Holmes flipped the script in '21 by taking Mississippi State righty Will Bednar in round 1. We've seen how important that kind of adaptability is to this front office at both the amateur and professional level with their "no stone unturned" methodology. That makes Cam Collier a perfect candidate for the Giants here as the final pick of the 1st round. It's a unique profile as Collier not only reclassified from the 2023 draft class, but also decided to start his college career early with Chipola College at the JUCO level. One of the youngest players in the class, Collier has a smooth and low effort swing, knows his zone, and takes mature at bats. He projects well at the plate and should hit for enough power to fit at third base with the reactions and plus arm that are needed defensively as well. This type of profile would be a bit different for Zaidi and Co. but maybe doing things differently is what we should start expecting from the Giants organization.