Alright, so let’s go over narratives and storylines of this class before diving in with full vigor. The 2022 class is more bloodline-heavy than any class I can ever remember. The sons of Carl Crawford, Andruw Jones and Matt Holliday loom large at the top. A partial byproduct of that talent could result in three prep hitters going top three; a rarity in drafts of late.
Another thing to take notice in this class is just how deep the college hitters are. It figures to be a healthy representation for that demographic this year much to the appeasement of scouts after an anemic 2021 crop. College outfielders make out the majority of the stock with seven going in the first round in this mock.
That said, this class lacks a college pitcher at the top to headline the class. In fact, we do not have a college pitcher getting selected in the top ten. Further the lack of pitching, this could be just the third time in 57 years that a pitcher isn’t drafted in the top five picks at all. Hell, we don’t have any pitchers selected in the top ten. Not college, not preps either. It’s a good year if you’re a guy who swings the twig. The mystery man of this class may be Oklahoma righty Cade Horton. He’s got heat in the Top 10, but may eventually carry too much risk to go quite that high. Outside of Horton, there’s may end up being immense value with some of the injured arms.
So what happens with injured arms? It’s been an especially busy year for Dr. James Andrews. This class features some prominent names on the elbow mend. Connor Prielipp, Dylan Lesko, Peyton Pallette, Reggie Crawford, Hunter Barco… the list goes on. And then you have Carson Whisenhunt who was suspended for steroids… Kumar Rocker who mysteriously disappeared after going unsigned by the Mets in 2021. He did, however, jump back onto the mound this past weekend to showcase for teams for Try-City. It went unbelievably well and the climb for Rocker has begun. And what do you make or Blade Tidwell who missed a large portion of the season with shoulder tenderness? It’s all so very complicated, okay?
But hey, here’s the mock. A lot of sourcing went into this one as information and opinions are starting to trickle out of front offices. You should have supreme confidence in this iteration as I bet it would get 3 or 4 right on July 17…
But in all seriousness, teams are starting to be attached to different players and that’s exciting. Not only is the first round sourced information, but there are certainly a bucket of names in the round two that have been heavily connected to their teams as well. 6 weeks to go until Baltimore is on the clock…
1. Baltimore Orioles
Druw Jones, Outfielder, Wesleyan
Baltimore is leaving no stone unturned. Orioles’ brass have been spotted in droves at a number of different venues, but have been especially heavy at Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones contests as their seasons came to a close. On top of that, you can’t disqualify a college bat like Cal Poly SS Brooks Lee as an underslot option, especially if you subscribe to the “competitive window opening now” narrative. The Orioles have a ton of money to play with in this class through high picks and compensation selections. Jones is the best player in this class with the most projection to boot. We believe, at the end of the day, the upside of Jones is too much to pass up and Mike Elias and Mejdal land their newest cornerstone.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jackson Holliday, Shortstop, Stillwater
Druw Jones will be pick here if he falls out of the top spot. That’s pretty much industry consensus and most scouts and cross-checkers agree. All I hear in this spot beyond Jones is high school bats. It’s Holliday, Elijah Green and potentially Termarr Johnson here.
3. Texas Rangers
Termarr Johnson, Infielder, Mays
The Rangers have some interest in Kevin Parada here, though most admit it’ll likely be one of Green, Holliday and Johnson. Folks inside the Rangers organization seem a bit split on Holliday and have played coy regarding their interest in Johnson.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College
Collier has all the buzz here, though I’ve specifically heard Lee attached to Pittsburgh quite a bit in this spot. Keep an eye on Texas Tech 2B/3B Jace Jung here too, who many believe could be a quick-moving bat-first infielder as soon as 2024.
5. Washington Nationals
Elijah Green, Outfield, IMG Academy
A few folks I spoke to in the Nats organization don’t believe Green will be there when they select with the fifth pick, closing the book on the discussion right then and there. We have Green slipping a bit for no specific reason other than teams being attached to different players ahead of him. Parada does get a lot of play here, but Green is tough to walk away from.
6. Miami Marlins
Jacob Berry, First Base/Outfield, LSU
There’s been a quite a shake-up in the Marlins front office on the scouting side over the past few weeks, so things may be ever-changing and fluid in this spot, but signs do point toward the Marlins now focusing on “safer” college bats in this spot. Berry and Parada both check that box.
7. Chicago Cubs
Zach Neto, Shortstop, Campbell
The Cubs seem to be focused on college bats with Parada, Lee, Collier, and Campbell shortstop Zach Neto all in play at this spot. The team is coveting a premium athlete in this spot, so we’ll give Neto the upper hand on Parada and Lee. The Cubs have become more and more data-influenced with their picks the last two years, so Neto checks that box as well.
8. Minnesota Twins
Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
It’s mostly Cross, Berry, Neto and Tennessee outfielder Drew Gilbert here, but with Lee on the board it’s hard to know how that might affect the outcome of their pick. Interestingly the Twins have also been attached to Oklahoma righty Cade Horton here, and this is probably his ceiling.
9. Kansas City Royals
Kevin Parada, Catcher, Georgia Tech
I’ll be honest, the Royals have never been directly connected to Parada in the folks that I’ve talked with. But it’s almost impossible to see his bat fall outside of the Top 10, and this feels like his floor. I’ve heard Horton here, but it’s mostly college bats here. The Royals did scout Alabama lefty Connor Prielipp pretty heavy in his late may workout for teams, so that’s something to consider as well.
10. Colorado Rockies
Gavin Cross, Outfield, Virginia Tech
The Rockies are almost assuredly going to take a college bat with power thanks to a model philosophy in their organization to build around the middle of the order. Parada falling here would be a pipe-dream, but quite literally everyone I’ve spoken to in front office believes this will be one of Jung, Cross, Tennessee OF Jordan Beck, as well as Arizona catcher Daniel Susac being more of an outside shot.
11. New York Mets
Justin Crawford, Outfield, Bishop Gorman
Another popular landing spot for Horton here. The Mets have money and nothing should be disqualified here. Crawford gets attached to New York a lot, as does Rockwell-Heath prep shortstop Jett Williams. Orchard Lake St. Marys righty Brock Porter also gets some play here too. In any case, almost everyone in the industry expects New York to make a splash pick and flex their financial bonus pool money.
12. Detroit Tigers
Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
I continue to hear the Tigers hope Berry falls to this spot, but that appears unlikely. Horton continues to surge up boards and is likely to go in the Top 20 if someone is willing to meet his price tag. The Tigers had multiple folks in to see Prielipp during his May workout, so that’s also noteworthy. In any case, this feels like a college arm unless one of the more premium college bats slips a bit, which is entirely possible.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Try-City ValleyCats (Indy)
Frankly it’s almost impossible to pin Rocker on any one team right now. There are rumors of a pre-draft deal already complete between Rocker and a team, though that’ll likely never come to light before the event itself. The Angels were 100% out on Rocker in 2021 after he refused to share his medicals. That has changed a bit this year. The fit here is perfect if the Angels are willing to roll the dice on Rocker’s shoulder. Horton also gets play here, as does UConn lefty Reggie Crawford who has been called “the best makeup of any player in any draft from the past two decades.”
14. New York Mets
Jace Jung, 2B/3B, Texas Tech
Again, all I keep hearing with the Mets and the first round is splash, splash, splash. Williams is still on the board in this situation, so he’s worth monitoring, but I think they’ll take a college bat here to save some money for more waves in the second round. Jung still on the board is a slam dunk. Keep an eye on Brock Porter and Dylan Lesko with them still on the board, however.
15. San Diego Padres
Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford
The Padres seem to be fully-focused on preps with their first pick. Williams and Lesko get a lot of the publicity here, though Cole Young gets some run in industry circles as well. I haven’t specifically heard Young attached to the team. The Padres don’t mind taking risks and Lesko’s surgically-repaired right elbow likely wouldn’t make General Manager AJ Preller bat an eye.
16. Cleveland Guardians
Cole Young, Shortstop, North Allegheny
This is where the conversation begins for Oregon State lefty Cooper Hjerpe but there’s too much prep talent left on the board for Cleveland to pull the trigger there. Williams is in play, but the Guardians spent a good bit of time at Young’s games this spring and seem pretty bought in on the player. Have also heard ECU lefty Carson Whisenhunt mentioned here.
17. Philadelphia Phillies
Brock Porter, RHP, OLSM
The Phillies have been connected to Barriera in just about every conceivable way possible, but most don’t expect Porter still on the board this late. If it’s not Barriera or Porter, look for Gilbert here with the outside shot of Hjerpe or late-rising lefty Jake Bennett in this spot.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Jett Williams, SS, Rockwell-Heath
Nobody seems to have a great idea where the Reds will go. Hell, the Reds don’t even seem to have a feeling for what will be on the board and where they’ll place their chips. Neto seems like the top guy here, but this mock has him well off the board by now. My best guess is Williams or Young if he’s still floating out there.
19. Oakland Athletics
Drew Gilbert, Outfield, Tennessee
The Athletics are another team closely tied to Young, though he’s off the board. Gilbert can be a culture-changing player with some edge to him and an unwillingness to accept losing. In a lot of ways, he resembles Ramon Laureano. The latter doesn’t figure to be in Oakland much longer, with Gilbert being the obvious replacement as early as 2024.
20. Atlanta Braves
Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
Susac is still on the board here, and that shouldn’t be brushed over. I haven’t heard the Braves attached to the Arizona backstop, but most don’t expect him here at this juncture either. Regardless, it’s mostly college arms with Prielipp, Bennett, Whisenhunt and Hjerpe; all lefties.
21. Seattle Mariners
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
Neto and Williams remain the top priority here, but both are gone. As things presently stand, this feels like the floor for Hjerpe who has suitors sprinkled literally all over the 15-21 range. A Pacific Northwest product, it won’t be a long commute up to Seattle. If not Hjerpe, Seattle has interest in a myriad of college arms. Prielipp, Whisenhunt, Horton, as well as Oklahoma State righty Justin Campbell and Tennessee righty Blade Tidwell. Should Lesko still be on the board here, he could be a surprise wildcard.
22. St. Louis Cardinals
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
This is almost certainly the floor for Susac as the Cardinals have a tendency to scoop up falling talents who drop into their lap. Gonzaga righty Gabriel Hughes remains on the board at this point too, and should be considered a serious option at 22.
23. Toronto Blue Jays
Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage
It’s hard to get a feel for Toronto here. They have pretty considerable interest in Gilbert as recently as May, but radio silence since. Tucker Toman has been tied to the Jays for some time, though with varying degrees of conviction. For that reason, we’ve got them snagging the best player on the board in Barriera.
24. Boston Red Sox
Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
Another tough one to tag, the Red Sox are all over the map. Louisville catcher Dalton Rushing gets mentioned here, but it’s a pretty light connection. They’ve been out to see James Madison outfielder Chase Delauter quite a bit, and Florida’s Sterlin Thompson is mentioned here quite a bit too. If we’re swinging for the fences and guessing the “Red Sox surprise” of 2022, McClatchy catcher Malcolm Moore is worth keeping on your peripherals.
25. New York Yankees
Sterlin Thompson, 3B/RF, Florida
The Yankees have primarily been attached to college bats with impressive data in this spot. It’s the tact they took in selecting Trey Sweeney in 2021 and Austin Wells in 2020. They like Vanderbilt outfielder Spencer Jones, but Thompson has more hitterish tendencies and likely comes with a much higher floor.
26. Chicago White Sox
Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond
The White Sox have been connected to so many names here it’s almost nauseating to count. Everyone knew they were taking Colson Montgomery in 2021. That transparency won’t be the case this year. They like Beavers, though they’ve been connected to Rocker, Toman, Thompson, Campbell, Tidwell and others here too.
27. Milwaukee Brewers
Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
The Brewers will be smitten to see another power-righty fall into their lap here with Hughes still on the board. Most see them going with one of Beavers, Delauter, Jones or Thompson. Hughes is too talented to pass up this late.
28. Houston Astros
Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville
A lot of Rushing, Tidwell and Prielipp here depending on who remains on the board. This will be the Astros only first round selection since 2019, so they’re likely quite eager to inject some upside talent into their system.
29. Tampa Bay Rays
Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina
Brown has suitors smattered about the back-third of the first round, but the Rays take the bait in this situation. Brown checks a lot of their boxes. Position versatility, athleticism, batted-ball metrics and wood-bat performer.
30. San Francisco Giants
Peyton Graham, Shortstop, Oklahoma
Graham did himself some draft favors in Omaha with strong performances night in and night out. He’s the power-speed upside play teams in this range will covet. There’s a good bit of swing-and-miss here, but it can be streaky and the Giants haven’t been shy about betting on guys with punch-out concerns in the past (Hunter Bishop).