Sunday Smoke: Mister Rogers' Neighborhood

Howdy, folks!

Can you feel it? That change in the air?

Yup, that's baseball in August, where we figure out who the best fans in the world really are. The casual baseball folks are falling by the wayside, lured away by the shrieking siren song of fantasy football, losing interest as their fantasy teams and/or real-life teams' championship hopes dwindle away.

But this is where the best dynasty GMs are paying more attention than ever.

Sunday Smoke - Prospects Live

Prospects LiveDarren Eisenhauer

Even in the deepest, most competitive formats, you'll have some guys fading a little with the season grinding onward. And you know what? I can't fully blame a man (or those special female fantasy owners) for letting some things slip.

As you'll know from Prospects Live's unparalleled coverage, baseball never sleeps.

The moment the fantasy season ends, the real playoffs begin. Right after that, a lot of deep dynasties will begin getting into offseason drafts and/or free agency periods in salary cap leagues. Meanwhile, MLB players are starting to sign real contracts around the league.

You MIGHT get a little break in January if you're lucky, but then February ramps up as Spring Training starts peeking its beautiful, hopeful head around the corner...

...so, I'm willing to forgive some of us with our other endeavors in life, family, etc.

That said, if you're willing to be stubbornly attentive in your leagues, this is a great time to notice shifts in value that others may not factor in when they eventually slink back around into "baseball mode".

Trevor Rogers' career resurgence is probably not going to completely slip by a lot of people, but it's been such a bizarre career arc that I do wonder just how trusted he will be when the 2026 season swings around.

Ryan Bergert and Alec Burleson are a couple of boring names that are going to have a chance to establish themselves as sneaky dynasty values ahead of next year - guys that no one is going to be fighting for, meaning even with a strong finish, you could snatch up two ascending pieces for a relatively low price.

Remember: this game is all about exploiting gaps between perceived value and actual value. Boring can be beautiful!

Trevor Rogers, SP, BAL

What a wild ride it's been for Trevor Rogers!

The 6'5 217 lb. lefty burst onto the major league scene as a 23-year-old all the way back in 2023, delivering a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 157 Ks over 133 innings. Pretty much the entirety of the baseball community had this guy locked in as one of the best young arm talents for years to come.

Sadly, we were reminded over the next three years that baseball is a tough sport and that injuries are no joke.

The kid was downright awful (5.47 ERA) in 2022, missed the majority of 2023, and then struggled to find consistency in 2024 - eventually being shipped out of town for the mashing supernova known as Kyle Stowers.

2025 has been a borderline-miraculous turnaround for Mr. Rogers, and the introduction of a brand-new sweeper has a lot to do with it:

Filthy!

He seems to be able to use the pitch against both right and left-handed batters with great success, leading to a true 5-pitch mix - a marked evolution even from his 2021 breakout season.

Rogers previously found success while using his 4 seamer almost 60 percent of the time(!), while mixing in a changeup and slider. That clearly stopped working in the following seasons, so he tried a sinker, which I'm still not convinced is actually a good pitch, with middling results.

This high-70s sweeper, on the other hand, is allowing his low-80s slider to play up significantly compared to 2024, and he seems to be going back to a 4-seam heavy approach after leaning too hard into that sinker.

While Trevor Rogers' current 1.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP aren't likely to hold up, anything under a 4 ERA would have been a welcome surprise to fantasy GMs and the Baltimore Orioles alike! He isn't quite the strikeout maven he was in 2021, but a 1.9 BB/9 is one way to make up for that.

The O's needed this resurgence in the worst way, and if both can stay healthy, Rogers and Kyle Bradish could be a powerful 1-2 punch for their rotation for years to come.

It's really worth mentioning how crazy our game is, folks. Specifically, how patient you have to be, which is more difficult than ever in our increasingly impatient society.

For perspective: Trevor Rogers was drafted in the 1st round back in 2017! Imagine selecting him in a FYPD, he finally breaks out four years later, and then takes another four years to provide any further value.

And he's still just 27 years old and could very well provide another 10+ years of steady value in Major League Baseball if all goes as planned.

I took some heat for being excited about a 23-year-old prospect in AA the other day on X, and my brain almost imploded at the "gimme gimme NOW" mentality that was observed. We are not playing fantasy football, folks, and 23 is very young in our game.

Sometimes college players take a little longer to cook, and sometimes prep arms like Rogers need nearly a decade to figure things out. Now, let's fold our hands in prayer in hopes that Mister Rogers stays off the IL and helps fantasy teams for years to come!

Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, STL

Alec Burleson is, simply put, one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball.

The man is hitting .284 with a .790 OPS, along with 15 HR in only 112 games...and yet he's only 46% rostered in Yahoo fantasy leagues?