Sunday Smoke: Full Count Carter

Howdy, folks - and happy Father's Day!

The windup, and the pitch:

Ball one: Evan Carter is somehow still just 22 years old.

Strike one: he already has a bad back.

Ball two: as a 20 year old rookie, he spurred the Texas Rangers to the only World Series title in franchise history.

Strike two: he's had ice-cold slumps over the last two seasons

Ball three: he's starting to heat up again.

Ladies and gentlemen...Full Count Carter.

The kid is one of the trickiest profiles to figure out in terms of dynasty value, but there's plenty of reason to have hope for his future - and we'll do a nice dive into Carter's outlook to help you determine what to do with him.

We'll also take a look at Jeremy Pena's renaissance (and whether its sustainable), as well as toying with the idea of adding one of the game's most volatile players...

...no, not Jo Adell. But close enough.

Evan Carter, OF, TEX

Mr. Carter is possibly the most frustrating non-pitcher asset in all of fantasy baseball, and likely just as frustrating for the Texas Rangers.

In case you've been asleep in a cryogenic chamber since the summer of 2023, you may not recall that the Rangers were falling apart down the stretch - until they called up Evan Carter in September, and proceeded to get hot enough to win it all!

He delivered an absurd .306/.413/.645 slash line, along with 5 bombs and 3 SB in just 23 games, and his playoff numbers were just as fantastic. In fact, the kid ended up hitting out of the 3 hole with the brightest lights shining on him!

So, you can imagine our collective disappointment when Evan Carter only gave us 45 MLB games in 2024, completely ineffective when healthy.

Bummer.

And as I often lament in this column, our "what have you done for me lately?" culture had all but dismissed Carter as a fantasy asset coming into 2025.

To be fair, we have to acknowledge the elephant in the room:

Evan Carter has had chronic back ailments dating back to his time in the minor leagues. If anyone reading that has ever had severe back spasms, even temporarily, you know just how debilitating they can be.

But I must repeat that he is only 22 years old. That means that while he figures out the best way to manage the rigors of a full major league season, his body will bounce back as best as it can in the meantime.

Maybe he can call Kerry Carpenter? Seriously, they're both vocal Christians, both have ongoing back pain, their last names start with C...

...and they both are looking like strong-side platoon bats so far.

Okay, maybe I'm not doing the best job selling Evan Carter to you so far. But Carter's defense is a lot more valuable than Carp's, and he has show that he can at least get on base at a decent clip against lefties.

There's a reason he's already got the cool nickname of "Full Count Carter", after all.

The kid's eye is elite, offering a mature approach at the plate since his debut. In fact, Geoff Pontes (now of Baseball America fame) was one of the first to notice this in his 2021 writeup on Prospects Live.

Carter went from an unknown kid out of Appalachia to PL's 31st overall prospect in 2023, and then all the way up to our 5th overall prospect ahead of the 2024 season!

Here are some names he out-ranked at the time:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong
• Jackson Merrill
• James Wood
• Samuel Basallo
• Bryce Eldridge

Again, the attitude toward Evan Carter has shifted tremendously in a very short period of time. Maybe he'll never reach those lofty expectations, but you have to remember that 22 is technically a little young for Double-A baseball!

While it's been another small sample size in 2025, Carter has shown us some flashes of improvement from his last two years - including his flashy end to 2023.

He's already hit a ball harder than any point in 2023 or 2024 (111.1 MPH), stolen more bases than his previous seasons (in less games), and perhaps most exciting of all...

...he's gone from one of the worst K-rates in baseball, to one of the best.

Despite having elite chase rates and walking at a nice clip, Carter has had a tough time limiting strikeouts over the years. If he can keep that rate at even 25% or less (he's sitting at a likely unsustainable 14% right now), then we could be looking at Evan Carter's re-breakout season.

After a red-hot week, he's banged up his wrist. A sign of more troubles to come, or your last buy-low window?

If all works out, we're looking at a true 5-category fantasy star. I think it's worth rolling the dice!

Jeremy Pena, SS, HOU