Sunday Smoke: Second-Half Heroes?

Howdy, folks!

Welcome back to baseball.

If you're reading this, you probably already know about the stellar MLB draft coverage provided by the team here at Prospects Live, which is tops in the industry, as far as I'm concerned. I popped in on Day 2 to talk shop, but other than that, I've taken a mini-hiatus from fantasy talk on X.
But now we're back, and everything feels fresh once more.

Sunday Smoke - Prospects Live

Prospects LiveDarren Eisenhauer

Seriously, am I the only one who felt like setting fantasy lineups on Friday morning was reminiscent of the season opener?! Any struggles are out of mind, every roster spot is full of hopes, dreams, and optimism...not an O-fer in sight.

And for me, the results didn't disappoint. Kyle Stowers smashed two more bombs, Caleb Durbin AND Victor Scott II (two of my favorite underdog stories) both went yard, and Reese Olson continues to fly under the radar as a solid young arm.

But if we're going to talk second half, let's get one thing straight:

The first half never happened.

Okay, maybe not literally. However, you should be aware that Jacob Wilson's five-homer month may not be replicated again, Matthew Boyd is unlikely to finish with a sub-3 ERA, and most tragically, Cal Raleigh is unlikely to hit 80 home runs this year.

While regression may be looming for some players, there's also the flip side of the coin: some of the game's struggling and/or injured athletes will figure things out down the stretch, becoming previously unthinkable championship assets.

Today, we're going to break down the profiles of some guys who could fit that bill in 2025.

Kerry Carpenter's primed to jump off the IL and into the heart of the order for the best team in baseball, Luke Keaschall had a Bonds-esque .538 OBP before his brutal injury, and Michael McGreevy could be a QS machine once the Cardinals do something with their...inconsistent rotation.

Kerry Carpenter, OF, DET

I've been labeling Detroit as a potential "destination offense" for a while now due to their pipeline of fun prospects. Still, they've put the pedal to the metal and accelerated the process...and recently, they've done it without one of the league's premier power bats against right-handers.

While Kerry Bonds has been widely dropped in fantasy leagues (55% in Yahoo) due to a pretty awful slump between his 3-homer June 2nd game and the end of the month, he was showing signs of snapping out of it - 3 more bombs in his last five games before pulling a hammy.

Of course, annoying injuries have become more of the rule than the exception with Mr. Carpenter, but at least this one wasn't related to his spinal issues.

Gosh, I'm not selling this guy very well, am I?

Alright, let's do a quick turnaround: however you feel about Kyle Stowers right now...that could very easily be Kerry Carpenter next month.

Better? Better.

Now, let's break down some of the geek stats behind Carp's 2025 profile:

The slump is easily visible, directly correlated with an increase in Ks. However, his zone contact has remained relatively static, and at this point, we should remember the insane heaters Kerry C has been known to go on.

He does have 16 home runs in only 265 ABs, after all.

However, there are a few unusual quirks associated with Kerry Carpenter in 2025. For one, he's striking out much less on the whole, as you can see by his shocking 15% K rate before the slump hit - he's still registering a 21% rate on the year, a number that would represent a career-best!

This is likely due to him whiffing less than ever...but he's also chasing a lot more.

And hardly walking ever, firmly in the lowest percentile in league BB rates. Carp has never been an OBP hero, but this year has turned him into more of a BA-only league specialist with a current .257 batting average and putrid .285 on-base clip.

Again, he was just in what will likely go down as his worst slump of the season, folks. You're not buying the slump numbers, you're buying the 10+ bombs he can provide you rest-of-season, along with something like a .280/.330 line. Maybe even .340, if we're going off recent years' production.

That would lead to Kerry Carpenter's first-ever 25-homer campaign, a long time coming in my mind. Yes, he's going to platoon, but that's not the end of the world if it's on the strong side - especially in a lineup that should generate a ton of runs and RBIs for the guy.

I referenced Kyle Stowers earlier for a reason, by the way: his profile is eerily similar to Carpenter's. Both mash the ball, and both have typically had some swing and miss in their game.

Not the first time I've made the comparison.

The nice thing about Stowers is that he takes way more walks, but he also whiffs and strikes out more overall. You can argue that Kerry Carpenter is a safer bet in terms of long-term profile, especially when considering his contact % is much better.
I bring this all up because the baseball world is finally falling in love with Kyle Stowers (somehow was still 50% owned before the ASB), while dumping Kerry Carpenter.
It's baseball, and sluggers will all have their hot and cold streaks. I advised folks on May 18th to wait for Stowers to get cold, and then buy - it has worked out.
This time, I'm telling you that NOW may be the last call before we see another iteration of Kerry Bonds amidst the dog days of summer.

Luke Keaschall, 2B, MIN