Sunday Smoke: Trade-Deadline Crystal Ball

Howdy, folks!

I'm going to come clean with you: I feel very uncomfortable writing this article.

When I have opinions, you may notice that I am not afraid to scream them from the mountaintop, or even jokingly threaten legal action against major league teams for use of my favorite nickname...

...but trade deadline predictions? They're just not my favorite.

While it can be fun to speculate, there are just so many variables at play. Each team has an evolving (or not-so-evolving) financial plan, and they certainly each have their own philosophy in terms of when and how to make a playoff push.

I started planning this article on Saturday and intended to discuss the Texas Rangers and the potential destinations for a player like Adolis Garcia.

One day later, and they're only .5 games out of a Wild Card slot after a fun extra-innings walkoff win. It would send the wrong message for them to ship away part of the team's heart and soul like that... my apologies to those who were dreaming of his perfect fantasy fit in Philly.

While Arizona and Minnesota are looking like sellers, five games back from a WC berth, the 4.5 games-back Royals signaled they will likely hold onto Seth Lugo by going out and picking up lefty-masher Randal Grichuk.

Again, each team approaches things differently for different reasons...and the Royals might also be encouraged to see the Tigers' precipitous 1-9 fall in their last ten games.

So, that's why I'm a little uneasy writing this article that could become irrelevant seconds after publishing, but it is part of my overall mission here at Prospects Live:

Highlighting strategies to help you win fantasy baseball championships.

I won't be able to cover every rumor on every team, but I will do my best to present things in a way that hasn't been reported by every other outlet in the world just yet.
Without further ado, let's peer into the crystal ball to see what a few teams could do leading up to the 2025 MLB trade deadline.

Chicago White Sox

Could Luis Robert Jr. land in a dream locale?

Let's start with the easiest sellers to identify: despite a hot stretch as of late, the White Sox still need to trade guys like Adrian Houser and Luis Robert Jr..

While the metrics don't support what Houser is doing, he's still doing the only job major league teams care about on the field: preventing runs. While names like Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Mitch Keller may be available, Houser should be more affordable.

Hate on the category all you want, but Wins are still heavily featured in many fantasy leagues, so that Houser could end up as a decent fantasy playoff asset on a better real-life team. He's probably not available off the wire in most leagues, but consider sending out a low-cost offer.

As for Mr. Robert, allow me to set the record straight:

I've taken flak for years for not believing in his profile. The tools are apparent, but the lack of plate skills is becoming painfully obvious, and fantasy GMs are finally steering clear of him.

But I gotta admit, seeing his name in the Dodgers' lineup would make Luis Robert Jr. a lot more appealing.

It could backfire if he stays put, but now could be an excellent opportunity to buy in on a guy who nearly smacked 40 homers back in 2023, and could crack 40 stolen bases this year if all goes well.

Unfortunately, I don't have any fun prospects that come to mind when I think about the roster spots that these moves could free up.

Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith clearly have work to do, and Jairo Iriarte hasn't impressed as much as some had thought...if one of them turns it around, there are starts available on the south side of Chicago!

St. Louis Cardinals

Nolan, please...the Crawford boxes are calling.

What a weird team.

After defying all expectations early on in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, they came out of the All Star Break looking awful, sacrificing Erick Fedde to the wolves and seeming like full-blown sellers.

Of course, the next day, Miles Mikolas suddenly started touching 97mph on his heater, and the Cardinals beat the Padres, and they are still only 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.

Welcome to the bizarre case of the 2025 Cardinals!

This feels like a situation where you could see some "addition by subtraction". While losing Ryan Helsley (who loves St. Louis) would surely damage any playoff efforts, shipping out Nolan Arenado could unlock some fresh energy by opening up a spot for JJ Wetherholt.

Arenado infamously has a short list of teams he'd waive his no-trade clause for, and I still think there's a shot he ends up in Houston. If there's any park in baseball that could lead to a power resuscitation to close out his career, it's the one I almost referred to as Minute Maid Park.

It's a tough fantasy sell, as only Nolan knows what he wants to do next, and the ball is very much in his court.

Moving Sonny Gray feels less likely, as he wants to play somewhere near his family in Nashville, TN, which leaves the seller, Atlanta Braves, and division rival Cincinnati Reds as the most proximal options. Again, it doesn't make sense.

Despite rumors, I doubt Brendan Donovan is going anywhere. He's a fantastic real-life ballplayer under team control, and likely won't get a good enough return to make it worthwhile. This is not a Tommy Edman situation.

If there's a dark horse here, Lars Nootbaar to the Phillies makes a ton of sense. Noot is a fan favorite, but there's enough depth to move on if the price is right.

Lastly, I recommend taking a flyer on either Phil Maton or Jojo Romero in saves-only leagues preemptively. While either could be dealt, they will be getting save opportunities if they stay in a post-Helsley world.

Chicago Cubs

Owen Caissie, get ready to speak Yinzer?

With the Milwaukee Brewers breathing down their necks - and the Reds and (somehow) even St. Louis not too far down the pecking order, the Cubs are going to be inclined to make a move to give them depth for a real playoff run this year.

Rumors are indicating an arm like Mitch Keller could be on the move, and slugging prospect Owen Caissie would be involved in a potential return!

While Caissie's counting numbers would suffer right away in Pittsburgh, at least there's a clear path to playing time there. And, you know, there is this "Konnor Griffin" kid who may find his way into the lineup before too long. Probably not the best time to buy in on Caissie, who has been as red-hot as his hair!

Keller can't be much worse than the Ben Brown (just let him become a reliever) experience has been for the Cubbies. However, it's easy to imagine his volatility shifting depending on which way the wind blows in Wrigley.

If the Cubs decide to keep their red rocket, it may come at the expense of a quality downgrade in their return.

Cincinnati Reds

Eugenio Suarez: a return to the GABP launchpad?

As you may have noticed, the NL Central may be where a lot of the deadline action goes down. The scrappy Reds have felt like underachievers the past couple of seasons, but could a recovered Hunter Greene and a reunion with Eugenio Suarez be of some assistance?

With the way he's been swinging the bat this year, we could see Suarez's second 40-homer season go down at Great American Ball Park.

The team has a collection of interesting pieces, and a spark like Mr. Suarez might be just what they need to put them over the top and into the playoff picture.

Atlanta Braves

Gotta love the unpredictability of sports - I don't think anyone saw this forced sell coming in Atlanta, especially with a healthy Ronald Acuna slugging away!

That said, it's here, and there are fantasy repercussions.

If a GM in your league has gotten bored with Drake Baldwin's quietly powerful rookie campaign - .283 BA/.352 OBP, 11 HR, elite contact rates + EVs - then I would pounce now before he gets even more access to playing time once Marcel Ozuna finds a new home.

For that matter, I recommend floating out offers to Ozuna owners. While he hasn't been as dominant as in recent years, a .358 OBP still ain't too shabby, and a fresh start could re-invigorate the powerful veteran.

New York Mets

Vientos vs. Baty: winner avoids the White Sox?

I don't plug it here nearly as often as I should, but you should be listening to my Dynasty Dingers podcast with co-host Matt Morris! Our recent episode had Matt bringing up a big decision for New York moving forward:

Mark Vientos, or Brett Baty?

Baty has been hot lately, but Vientos has shown some life and has a stronger history of being a big-time power bat in the clutch.

If you can't tell, I'm on team Vientos, but Matt is rooting for Baty, who does have a great baseball name.

Vientos seems to have the higher upside, and he feels like a great fit as a Met. There have been some interesting reports of a Luis Robert-Vientos swap, which would be one heckuva fantasy shift for each player's dynasty stock.

Robert would immediately surge back up the dynasty ranks with a theoretical increase to his counting stats, while Vientos' future would be harder to predict. On one hand, it would feel like a rock-bottom outcome for his offensive surroundings...

...but on the other hand, maybe there's just been too much pressure to replicate last season's success in New York?

He did crush the ball under the bright playoff lights, which was a primary reason I bought into his emergence as a star, but perhaps this is something that has taken a toll over time.

If the trade goes down, you could get Vientos at an even better discount - and I'd buy for the upside!

San Francisco Giants

Is the Carson Whisenhunt redemption arc upon us?

The Hayden Birdsong experiment tragically appears as if it will take a bit longer to find legs in the major leagues, and Landen Roupp just landed on the injured list, leaving the Giants 2 games outside a Wild Card spot with just three starting pitchers on the roster.

Maybe Carson Whisenhunt can make his long-awaited debut, but this team will need outside help if they want to sneak into the playoffs and make a splash in 2025. This is probably a good time to break down a few of the starters most likely to be traveling by the deadline:

The aforementioned Mitch Keller, who could reach new levels in the spacious confines of Oracle Park
Charlie Morton would add another greybeard to pair with Justin Verlander
Edward Cabrera and/or Sandy Alcantara sound like they are available from the surprisingly hot Marlins
Arizona's Kelly/Gallen duo, although this comes with the issue of intra-division dealing.

With Kris Bubic's injury and a lack of clarity surrounding Cole Ragans' return, the Royals may also find themselves making offers for one of these names...

...or, if either team wants to roll the dice on the cheapest ticket in town - the Miles Mikolas experience awaits!

Until next week...I'm your huckleberry.

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