Some Background

Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates will select in the top 10 of the MLB Amateur Draft for the sixth consecutive year. They’ve been awarded the first overall pick in two of the last four drafts, and a whopping six times in the 60-year history of the draft— the most of any team. They’ve struck gold with Gerrit Cole and Paul Skenes, but missed on several others.

In back-to-back years, the Rays nailed the David Price selection and whiffed on Tim Beckham. Also in back-to-back years, the Nationals changed the trajectory of their franchise by drafting Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

The Astros are the only team to pick first three years in a row. They went a very embarrassing 1-for-3, and despite a combined 0.1 fWAR for the team from Mark Appel and Brady Aiken, they still managed to build a dynasty over the last decade.

The Mariners are batting .500, but their two hits — Ken Griffey Jr and Alex Rodriguez — are pretty massive.

Seven teams have never selected first— four big-market powerhouses (Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants), two expansion teams (Rockies, Blue Jays) and… the Reds?

The Athletics haven’t been in this spot since the inaugural 1965 draft, when they still resided in Kansas City and drafted outfielder Rick Monday.

Only four first overall picks are currently in the Hall of Fame— Harold Baines, Ken Griffey Jr, Chipper Jones and Joe Mauer. A-Rod is, of course, deserving of a spot in the Hall if we’re only looking at numbers. Bryce Harper is the only active lock, while Gerrit Cole is building a strong case and several guys are way too early to tell.

The bottom line is— even if you have the top pick, there’s no guarantee you’ll get an impact player. Scouts miss, even on guys who seem to be “can’t-miss.” The team you’re drafted to matters— player development departments aren’t always reliable. Certain players maybe can’t handle the mental pressure of the big leagues, while injuries obviously play a role, as well.

But whiffing at the top doesn’t necessarily have to set you back too far if you hit elsewhere and have a good player development system.

Other than last year’s pick Travis Bazzana, three players have ever been taken No. 1 and never played a single big league game— Steve Chilcott (Mets, 1966), Brien Taylor (Yankees, 1991) and Brady Aiken (Astros, 2014). All three of those teams won a World Series within five years.

From where I’m sitting, the key is to take big swings and live with some misses.

Here's a breakdown of every #1 Pick

Google Sheet

Quick Takeaways

  • Prep arms are just too risky
  • Up-the-middle prospects are more prioritized at the high school level than among college players
  • A-Rod, Griffey and Chipper certainly skew things a bit, but high school position players have the highest hit rate

1990-2015

  • Eight of the 11 prep bats compiled at least 25 career WAR
  • All five college bats have tallied at least 15 WAR
  • Two college arms over 40 WAR, five under 4 WAR, and just one in the middle
  • Neither high school pitcher made the big leagues

Bonus Pool Era

  • Since 2012, only Spencer Torkelson in the unconventional, five-round 2020 draft even received No. 1 overall slot value, and no one has surpassed it
  • Nine of 13 have been bats, including eight of last 10 (five college, three prep)

So, who will be the top pick in 2025?

In my estimation, there are just five players with an actual shot of hearing their name called first overall:

LHP Kade Anderson, LSU

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State

SS/3B Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS

College LHP - Kade Anderson

There have only been two college lefties taken No. 1— Floyd Bannister, who had a perfectly respectable 16-year career, in 1976 and David Price in 2007. Why just two? My surface-level analysis: lefties are rare and coveted, and just about anyone worth a damn will get plucked straight out of high school. There have been just eight college lefties drafted in the last 45 years with 1000 IP and a 110 ERA+, with 15 prep lefties in that span. There are five active players in that group— four prep, one college (Chris Sale). Only Tarik Skubal, a ninth rounder out of Seattle University, joins him if you lower the threshold to 500 IP. Garrett Crochet, Andrew Abbott and Shane McClanahan are promising youngsters who could just that list in time, but the list is narrow, nonetheless.

Still— considered a fringe-first rounder just a couple of months ago, Kade Anderson has ballooned himself into the 1.1 conversation. He boasts four promising pitches, two of which already look to be plus, to go along with above-average command, quality strike-throwing ability and some remaining projection. He lit the world on fire with three dominant postseason outings (and one clunker).

Prep RHP - Seth Hernandez