Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Hello and welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Pickups written series! This past week, we saw the MLB trade deadline come and go. Although I didn’t target traded prospects for my article this week, you can likely expect to see a few of them appear in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, I will briefly touch on the moves my Jays made. While they did give up some prospects I really like—including Khal Stephen, who has grown his stock tremendously since I recommended him back on April 13—it’s nice to see the Jays front office try to fill some needs. They may not have made the biggest splashes, but I really like the acquisition of Louie Varland, since he’s under team control for a few more years. Ty France should adequately fill a right-handed bench role as well. I think Shane Bieber could end up as a key piece for the Jays if he looks good as he comes back from Tommy John surgery.
As I said last week, the Complex level season might be over (entirely now with the playoffs ending this past week), but that doesn’t mean we can’t still find some hidden gems in the lowest level of stateside ball, especially as players either move up to higher minor league levels or shift into new organizations through trades. As proof of that, I have a hitter from the Florida Complex League who ended the season on a high note, an A-ball bat whose contact rates have been trending in the right direction, a 2024 first rounder that seems to have been forgotten, and a pair of Double-A pitchers, one armed with a triple-digit heater, who have had no trouble striking out opposing batters this year. Now, without further delay, let’s get into the names you need to know this week.
*Note: all stats current through Friday, August 1/25 and all minor league Statcast figures are sourced from TJ Stats unless otherwise stated.
After consecutive seasons with an ERA below 3.00 in 2022 and 2023, Kelly struggled to a near 4.50 ERA in 2024. In 2025, however, not only did he return to form, but he also demonstrated clear improvement in control. Specifically, he reduced his BB% from 11.3% in 2024 to 7.4% in 2025, marking a career best by over a full percentage point. Additionally, his strike-throwing rate rose from 61.2% to 65.7% over the same period, underscoring improved command.
Kelly has appeared in just one Prospects Live article this year, the July 4th edition of the Daily Sheet, where Trevor Hooth noted his strong Double-A start and added, “Oh, and he can regularly touch triple digits which is also pretty cool.” Our scouts haven’t graded his arsenal, but Baseball America assigned a 70 to his heater, a 55 to the slider, a 45 to his changeup, and a 45 to his control. While the arsenal likely lives up to those rankings, I think it’s reasonable to grade Kelly’s control at least a 50, if not higher. With a pitcher commanding stuff like this, it’s no surprise he’s routinely struck out nearly 30% of batters and maintained K-BB rates around 20% at almost every level, with 2024 being the one exception.
Why To Think Twice
With big stuff in a relatively small frame—though he looks much thicker than his listed 183 pounds—Kelly clearly carries reliever risk, especially if BA’s scouting report is correct about his fringey changeup. There is also an obvious injury risk, as he missed approximately two months of the 2024 season due to an undisclosed injury.
Final Thoughts
If Kelly can stay healthy and develop a more reliable third pitch, the sky could be the limit for this high-octane arm. If he needs to move to the bullpen, he has a fastball/slider combo that most relievers would dream of wielding. Even if his changeup doesn’t improve, we’ve seen pitchers succeed with dominant fastball/slider-heavy arsenals in the past. Given Kelly’s strong ability to fill up the strike zone, I’m willing to bet on him sticking in the rotation at this moment. That’s why I’m recommending him for leagues with 350+ prospects rostered.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 250+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
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Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
