Been a baseball fan and player my whole life, played dynasty for 10 years. Co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023 and joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Pickups written series! We are back on our regular schedule this week, and while the change was good, as a former pitcher and creature of habit, it’s nice to get back to routine. The “loud” noise out of the minor leagues this week was the alleged 119.4 mph missile hit by Reds SS prospect Tyson Lewis. While I lean toward that being a misread, he followed it up with a 114.8 mph reading on a HR later in the week and posted a 109 mph batted ball. Whether all of those numbers are legit might be up for debate, but one thing that isn’t is that they’ve certainly created some buzz and helium around Lewis’ name. You won’t find him in this article. Still, you will find a fellow prep draftee showing some promising signs in Complex ball, another who skipped the Complex level and is performing well in Single-A, and a trio of arms taking strides in the right direction through the first month of the minor league season. But that’s enough delay, let’s get into this week’s recommendations.
*Note: all stats current through Friday, May 16/25 and all minor league statcast data is sourced from TJ Stats unless otherwise stated
Despite being a 15th-round pick last year, Carey made the Braves Spring Breakout roster, indicating how highly they thought of him early on. He then skipped over Complex ball entirely, made his debut in Single-A, and has performed well above what would typically be expected from a prep draftee that was taken that late. He’s an aggressive swinger, which leads to too much chase (32.5% chase rate), but he makes enough contact to make up for it with a 79.1% Z-contact rate and a stellar 72% O-contact rate. He’ll need to lift the ball more to continue tapping into more power as his 49.5% ground-ball rate is much too high, but he pulls the ball 42.6% of the time and has nine doubles in the early goings, along with his two long balls.
Final Thoughts
Much like another 2024 prep draftee, Luke Dickerson, Carey is a cold-weather kid who also excelled on the ice, helping lead his school to its first-ever Division I title in hockey. On April 20th, Smada highlighted Carey in an article discussing some PLIVE+ risers and said, “Carey has my attention and should have yours in leagues with 400+ prospects rostered.” Well, I might be a month late hopping on the train, but I’m right there with Smada and even pushing him a little higher.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 300+ prospects rostered
Rynders was gaining some helium as the draft approached, primarily thanks to his raw power potential as he posted strong bat speed and exit velocity data in showcases, but some scouts had questions regarding his hit tool. It’s still very early, but the returns on that hit tool are looking fine so far, as Fangraphs has him with a 70.7% contact rate. He’s already moved off of SS in favor of 3B, but he is a good athlete who posted solid run times and should be a non-zero contributor on the basepaths. He has the power and arm strength necessary to fit in at the hot corner, and if he can continue to make enough contact, he should become a much more popular name in fantasy circles. The over-the-fence power hasn’t shown up just yet, partly because he’s putting the ball on the ground more than 40% of the time and pulling it around 25% of the time. Still, his swing is geared to lift the ball, and he should get into more than enough power to be successful with an all-fields approach (though I would still like to see him pull the ball more).
Final Thoughts
Rynders was a player who I saw sleeper potential in during this past FYPD cycle, even ranking him inside my top 50 in the class, but I didn’t grab many shares because I knew he wasn’t that highly thought of by most. But that is quickly changing, and I’ve had to act soon, as I’ve seen him scooped up in many of my leagues. His stats don’t look great on the surface, but what he’s shown early on in terms of his approach and contact skills are very encouraging for a tooled-up prep bat. It’s worth keeping an eye on his swing rate as it is still below 40% in the season's early goings, but everything else in the profile looks like a bat I want to get my hands on in dynasty. I recommend grabbing him in leagues of 350+ prospects before his numbers start to take off.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 350+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
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Been a baseball fan and player my whole life, played dynasty for 10 years. Co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023 and joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
