Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Hello and welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Pickups written series! The regular seasons in Single-A and High-A have come to an end, and the upper minors are nearing their end as well, which means we’ve got a little less fresh info to go off of for some of these recommendations, but that isn’t going to stop us from bringing you some more exciting players this week. With that being said, after recording this week’s podcast, Taylor and I had a discussion about our plans for the next couple of weeks, and have decided this will be the final week of our recommendations. Starting next week, we will be grading each other’s seasons similar to how we did our own at the All-Star break. First, we will grade each other’s recommendations through the first half, and the following week, we will grade each other’s second-half players. If my math is correct, we each wrote about 115 players this year, so there will be a lot to discuss in both the articles and on our podcast over the next couple of weeks. We hope you’ll join us for both.
This weekend also marks the end of one of my championship matchups, the halfway point for a couple of others, and the end of semi-final matchups in a handful of leagues. It’s a stressful time, to say the least, so let's not dive any deeper into that right now. This week, I’ve got an outfielder who just arrived in the big leagues with a boom, a similarly volatile arm, a bat with boom or bust potential, a catcher who saw his power production take a big step forward this year, and a deeper arm that could be an interesting early buy before a potential breakout campaign next year. Now let’s get into the names you need to know this week.
*Note: all stats current through Friday, September 12/25 and all minor league Statcast figures are sourced from TJ Stats unless otherwise stated.
On Friday morning, this article was focused on how good Cole had been since his promotion to Triple-A. While I will still discuss that for the most part, I also have to address the fact that he made his big league debut this past Friday and made sure everyone knew who he was by blasting the first big league pitch he saw 114.3 mph for a home run. He finished the game 3-for-4 with four RBI and two runs scored, sparking the Houston offense in a win over Atlanta.
Cole has always been known more for his blend of power and speed than for his contact ability, consistently posting ISO numbers above .200 and speed scores above 7.0 since being selected in the 10th round of the 2022 draft. Though he had just one steal on two attempts after being promoted to Triple-A, Cole’s raw power had really been shining at the highest level of the minors, as you can see in every quality of contact metric in the chart below.
Cole was featured at number 20 in our Astros Top 20 Prospects list and Greg Hoogkamp had the following to say about him:
“It goes a long way when he runs into one, but poor contact rates limit his offensive potential. Cole’s slugging ability, baserunning, and glove will give him opportunities, but they will quickly run dry if he cannot put more balls into play. He’s a prospect to monitor for now as he works on cutting down on his swing-and-miss.”
While his contact rates in Double-A were still quite troubling, you can see in the chart above that they were sitting more comfortably around the average range in his relatively small sample at Triple-A and as Matt Thompson said in the May 13th Daily Sheet (link article) “any improvement at all [in the hit tool] and you have a Josh Lowe type.”
On the whole, Cole posted a .364/.472/.818 triple slash with a 216 wRC+ in his last stop before getting the call to the bigs. A line that everyone can see is unsustainable, but when coupled with improved contact rates, it is still highly encouraging.
Why To Think Twice
While Cole’s contact rates improved in Triple-A, his approach did not. In fact, he got even more passive with his overall swing rate dipping from 43.6% in Double-A to just 39.7%. His chase rate is significantly better than average, but his zone-swing rate was just 16th percentile, which leads to him watching a lot of pitches he could do damage on. This might be because he appears to have trouble with non-fastballs. As you can see in the chart below (from TJ Stats), he does an excellent job both making contact with heaters and laying off of them when they’re out of the zone, but struggles much more with chasing and making contact on off-speed and breaking balls.
I also noticed some inconsistencies in his load while watching the video this week, specifically with his barrel tilt. On some pitches, his barrel is pointing down over his shoulder at a slight angle towards the ground before he has to tip it back up and start his swing, while on others it remains more parallel to the ground, making for a much quicker load and swing sequence. Finding more consistency in this aspect of his setup could help him achieve greater consistency in his game overall. If he has recently found this, it could explain the significant jump in contact rates.
Final Thoughts
Just a few days ago, I saw Cole as a worthwhile add in leagues of 350+ prospects rostered. At that time, he was just 1% rostered on Fantrax and was still in Triple-A. Now that he’s made his major league debut in a big way and already seen his roster% jump 5% (maybe even more by the time you’re reading this), I think you need to go after him in leagues with 200+ prospects rostered, and he could be the kind of spark your team is looking for to close out a championship run. Don’t be afraid to get aggressive with your FAAB bids, empty those pockets if you need to.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 200+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Aggressive (10-15%)
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Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
