The Arizona Fall League is well underway and its impact on prospect markets has been rather underwhelming. Top hitting prospects such as Kevin McGonigle, Sebastian Walcott, Charlie Condon, and Braden Montgomery have all shown neutral or negative price gains over the last 14 days. Kevin McGonigle's average prices moved from $204.50 down to $175.51. Sebastian Walcott's from $72.80 to $64.89. Charlie Condon from $74.33 to $58.88. Braden Montgomery from $46.78 to $45.80. All price movement quoted above is October 9, 2025 compared to October 23, 2025.

As I sit here typing this article, I find myself frequently revisiting the same question. Why would prices drop if prospects were still actively playing? Could performance be a factor? Doubtful. Kevin McGonigle is slugging .313/.452/.531 over his nine AFL games and Charlie Condon has slashed .341/.420/.477 over his 11 AFL games. Despite these respectable slash lines, McGonigle has dropped $30 and Condon has dropped $16, over the last 14 days. The incongruence between performance and price is rather peculiar.

The negative and neutral price changes witnessed for Sebastian Walcott and Braden Montgomery are easier to understand. Walcott's AFL stint was ended early due to "arm fatigue". He played in one game, recording two hits, one 2B and one BB in four at bats. His performance was solid but the sample size was far too small to make any meaningful change. It should be mentioned that arm fatigue is a rather unusual injury designation for a position player, so let's hope the underlying injury is insignificant. Montgomery made his AFL debut on 10/21/25 after recovering from a right foot fracture. He has just played in two games and has managed to slash .250/.667/.500 with one hit and five walks across his first nine plate appearances.

Some prospects have shown minimal gains despite outstanding performances. Max Anderson has appeared in seven AFL games and has managed to slash .500/.676/1.091 for a ridiculous 1.767 OPS accompanied by a .591 ISO. Despite this, his prices have shown only modest gains, moving from $23.49 to $25.39 over the last 14 days. Others have shown reasonable gains accompanied by respectable performances. Axiel Plaz has slashed .435/.536/.435 over six AFL games and has seen his average prices move from $5.92 to $7.25.

Other prospects were slated to participate in the AFL, but were removed from rosters for various reasons. Aidan Miller, Josue De Paula, and Kendall George, to name a few. The anticipation accompanied by dissatisfaction led to stagnant or slumping average prices as many of the last minute drop outs were hindered by injury during the regular season.

But there is good news within this analysis as not all players saw their markets flounder or flop. Esmerlyn Valdez has led the charge over the last 14 days with average prices showing a 95% increase as he has showcased his strength, hitting eight HRs in his first 11 AFL games. Five more than the next closest player. When looking at the last 30 days, Luis Perales has outpaced and overshadowed Esmerlyn Valdez, flashing a price increases of 130%. Luis Perales had returned to pitching after undergoing TJ surgery in June of 2024 and had appeared in three regular season games. One with the Red Sox AA affiliate, two with Red Sox AAA affiliate, culminating in a 7.71 ERA, over 2.1 IP. He certainly did not light the world on fire in his season debut. But his was regular season return was trumped by a fastball peaking above 101 MPH and a 33% strikeout rate in the AFL. Good enough to draw the attention of collectors and investors, driving his price up 130% over the last month.

Over the last two and four weeks, we have seen decent percentage growth, but it feels as if player performance in the AFL has less influence on price change and a significantly lower market ceiling. I think back to some of the players where having two or three players, at minimum, with > 150% increase was rather commonplace.

As mentioned above, Luis Perales and Esmerlyn Valdez were our highest risers over the last 14 and 30 day timeframes. Other players like Seaver King, Enmanuel Tejeda, Tony Blanco Jr., and Enrique Bradfield Jr. were not far behind. Before diving into the analysis, it should be noted that this article is riddled with market volatility, with sustained price growth seemingly only coming from sustained media attention.

Top 3 14-Day Risers

  1. Enmanuel Tejeda: $5.05 → $7.55 (+49.5%)
    AFL Stats: AVG .167 | ISO .033 | HR 0 | Games 9

Analysis: Enmanuel Tejeda is a 20-year-old infielder in the New York Yankees' farm system who signed with the team in 2022. Over his first four seasons of professional baseball he has showed consistent plate discipline with a decent hit tool batting close to .300 in his first 188 games. His professional career has been hindered by injury, reaching 50 games played only one time over four seasons. His AFL performance has been subpar, and the reasons for price growth appears to be more of a market correction than anything else. He has shown a good hit tool and the predicted average power has not seemed to manifest itself beyond his stints in the DSL and CPX in 2022 and 2024. Given the scout grades, plate discipline, age, and price it would not be the worst gamble, especially if you can invest at $5.00.

  1. Tony Blanco Jr: $15.7 → $23.34 (+48.66%)
    AFL Stats: AVG .350 | ISO .200 | HR 1 | Games 6

Analysis: Tony Blanco Jr. has seemed to benefit from statcast tracking in the AFL as he has recorded a 464-foot 3R HR, the longest home run in the AFL to date, and a 120.4 MPH 2B, which is the second-hardest-hit ball in the AFL history. His market has already shown that it can reach $50. His current average price is less than half than that after his market value saw significant regression in early August. Finding the right blend of hitting, power, and plate discipline is important for prospect investing. Tony Blanco Jr. certainly has the power, but his hit tool has historically been below average and his plate discipline has been unimpressive. He is the ultimate boom-or-bust, an archetype that has historically proven unsustainable but will occasionally yield the most explosive and significant ROIs.

  1. Enrique Bradfield Jr.: $19.89 â†’ $27.4 (+37.76%)
    AFL Stats: AVG .278 | ISO .111 | HR 0 | Games 9

Analysis: 80-grade speed with nine stolen bases in nine AFL games. Participating in the AFL because a hamstring injury limited him to 76 games across the CPX, A+, AA, and AAA levels in the 2025 season. 80-grade speed is exciting, but speed can only carry value so far. Think back to Chandler Simpson. Prices exploded earlier in the season only to regress back to ~$25 average price. This archetype has become more commonplace. Good hit tool, above average speed, and fielding. As you might remember, without power, market value is hard capped.

Top 4 30-Day Risers

  1. Luis Perales: $21.1 → $48.5 (+129.86% )
    AFL Stats: IP 5.1 | ERA 6.75 | K/9 15.2 | Games 3

Analysis: Luis Perales is an exciting young pitching prospect in the Red Sox organization. He has been progressively increasing his workload and is working to regain his form since returning from TJ surgery earlier this season. His fastball and strikeout rates are amongst his strengths, though his command needs improvement. His return to professional baseball has brought about a lot of excitement, led by a 101 MPH fastball and a high strikeout rate. His base auto has shown steady growth since his return late in the 2025 season, but at his most recent sales prices, I would look to pass. I anticipate prices will decrease as the excitement wears off. If prices drop back down somewhere between $20-$30, it would not be the worst investment, considering his upside.

  1. Esmerlyn Valdez: $28.28 → $57.4 (+102.97%)
    AFL Stats: AVG .519 | ISO .925 | HR 8 | Games 10

Analysis: Not much needs to be said for Esmerlyn Valdez. He has been destroying baseballs in the AFL with 8 home runs in 10 games. Five more than the next closest AFL participant. He has taken this opportunity to build on his breakout 2025 performance. His slash line is out of this world, sitting in the top three performers amongst most hitting stats. He has captured the attention of many eyes monitoring his performance and potential to break the AFL HR record. If he does break the record, I would not be surprised to see prices surpass $100. My biggest concern is sustainability. But with all eyes on him, performance will likely lead to market overreaction with price growth driven by FOMO. Nonetheless, this could be a short-term opportunity to make some money, especially if you feel that he can surpass the record of 14 home runs, set in 2005.
I feel like we might have missed the window to invest here, with sales over recent days reaching $80 as he is currently the 21st highest priced hitting prospect. Continuing to build on his breakout performance may afford him the opportunity to reach the upper-echelon of prices, but I find that the higher the prices go, the more influence, hype ,and prospect ranking drive prices.

  1. Seaver King: $11.03 → $20.31 (+84.13%)
    AFL Stats: AVG .341 | ISO .269 | HR 2 | Games 10

Analysis: Seaver King has showcased a strong slash line, batting .341/.438/.610 over his first 10 games in the AFL. The 2025 season was his second season of professional baseball. His performances have been average, but he has progressed through minor league levels at a strong pace, with his most recent stop resulting in 80 games played at the AA level. His hit tool and speed are good. His power is questionable, recording six HRs over his first 145 games. Seaver King feels like a player who's name outpaces performance. His first two seasons of professional baseball have been somewhat underwhelming. I wonder if his price growth is secondary to his strong AFL slash line and two home runs in 10 games. A strong showcase across an extraordinarily small sample size.

  1. Raudi Rodriguez: $8.75 → $14.3 (+63.43%)
    AFL Stats: AVG .462 | ISO .269 | HR 1 | Games 9

Analysis: Raudi Rodriguez is a 22-year-old prospect in the Angels's farm system. He was selected with the 564th draft pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and spent his first two seasons at the CPX level. Both seasons come with small sample sizes, 12 and 29 games, respectively. He seemed to round into form this past season, slashing .281/.372/.470 across 125 games in low-A. His plate discipline, power, and hitting were solid and he has managed to continue this strong performance into the AFL. With the 2025 season marking his professional breakout, I anticipate performance will continue into the 2026 season. He is a little old for his current place of professional progression and does not have history on his side. Nonetheless, I would look to invest if his prices drop back to the $10-$15 range.

As you can see, the AFL has showcased significant market volatily, regardless of accompanying stats. Enmanuel Tejeda has been underwhelming. Raudi Rodriguez has been over-performing. Both players flashing recent, short-term price growth, yet neither have surpassed sales prices from earlier in this season. Luis Perales, Esmerlyn Valdez, and Enrique Bradfield have hit prices that have reached market peaks. Unfortunately, the AFL does not yield clear factors or trends influencing player prices, nor do I feel it provides good investment opportunities. I would recommend continuing to be patient, waiting to invest in prospects until we move further into the off-season. With just over three weeks lefts to go in the AFL, we are closely approaching the preferred investment window.