We’re now a few weeks into the minor league season and while we are still very early in the game for 2024 draft prospects, it’s a good time to take a look at some guys who are outperforming their draft stock and some players who have yet to live up to it. For the purposes of this article and taking out a few obvious answers, Nick Kurtz, Cam Smith, and Ryan Johnson (with an Angels asterisk of course) are not included since they have already made their MLB debut. Of course, all of these are based on small sample sizes and just because someone’s stock is falling at the moment doesn’t mean they’re not going to be good. Let’s start with some players that might be making their way up prospect lists very soon if their performance sustains. 

Risers

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF (ARI) 

Ryan Waldschmidt mashed at Kentucky last spring coming off a torn ACL from the prior summer and since being taken with the 31st overall pick, he’s taken off in pro ball and is making the case that he should have gone a lot higher. Over his first 21 games in High-A this season, Waldschmidt is hitting .314/.484/.543 with four home runs and an equal walk to K ratio. The 22-year-old’s swing is compact and he won’t swing and miss much, with an 80% contact rate and he’s shown the ability to hit for power to all fields. A big part of Waldschmidt’s profile that has carried over from college is his elite approach and swing decisions. In fact, the outfielder has a higher walk rate in High-A (21%) than chase rate (15%). His walk rate won’t stay that high as he continues to face better pitching, but the approach and walk numbers should continue to be a strength of his. He’s probably going to stay in left field defensively so the Diamondbacks are betting on the bat, but there’s some really strong indicators of that happening early on. I love Waldschmidt’s profile, someone who makes contact, walks a ton and doesn’t expand the zone, and hits the ball in the air (39% GB rate so far). Yes he was a first rounder, but I bet Waldschmidt is going to shoot up prospect rankings by midseason and a promotion to Double-A might not be too far off.  

Jared Thomas, OF (COL)

Jared Thomas was known to have a high ceiling coming out of the University of Texas, but some serious refining to his approach was needed to reach that potential in pro ball. So far though in a small sample, he has significantly cut down his chase rate from 30% at Texas to just 20% in High-A and the rest of his game has taken off. The second rounder has raked in April with Fresno, hitting .349/.462/.535 with four home runs and a 163 wRC+, essentially carrying that lineup himself. The 14% walk rate likely will regress a bit in the coming months, but it’s a real sign of improvement and he’s swinging at the right pitches. Defensively, Thomas mostly played first base at Texas with some corner outfield mixed in, but the Rockies have opted to fully try him in left field to start this season. I’m buying the 21-year-old’s stock right now, especially if these improvements with his approach continue to stick and he fills out his frame a little more. Thomas could be a guy who rises quickly in Colorado’s system and outperforms the $2.2 million signing bonus quite a bit.