We are three weeks past the 2025 Bowman Chrome Baseball release date (9/23/2025) and have already seen some significant market movement. I prefaced last week's article by talking about how we would look to "analyze how markets have been set". This statement assumes a systemic approach to a rather individualistic idea. Stated otherwise, the market will move differently for different prospects.

For example, Ching-Hsien Ko had five sales > $250 shortly after this product was released. Today his average price is $145. Their might have been an initial belief that his base auto was short-printed, likely emphasized by the low quantity listed for sale, close to the date of release. Though low supply can only carry value so far when the demand does not match. In Ko's case, we have seen more than 15 total sales of his base auto. When we compare Ching-Hsien Ko to somebody like Cam Schlittler, we could argue the inverse, albeit the extrinsic factors that influence prospect values were much more present for Cam Schlittler. Nonetheless, his initial sales averaged $110. Today his average price is $257.

I use these examples not to disparage Ching-Hsien Ko or to artificially inflate Cam Schlittler, but instead to highlight the importance of patience and understanding. If you are buying into product breaks, investing in wax yourself, or if you are an investor/collector/prospector, it is important to remember that the large majority of prospects experience reductions in value as time goes by. If history is any indicator of what's to happen, we will reach a point where individual markets plateau before any positive regression occurs.

For 2025 Bowman Chrome Baseball, only two prospects (1.9%) have seen an increase an average value, since the first date they had three or more sales. The 2 prospects who have seen an increase are Yahil Melendez and Cam Schlittler - Yahil Melendez from $3.33 to $4.44 and Cam Schlittler from $110 to $275. For the sake of this argument, let's assume you bought both at their initial average price and sell at today's average price. When we include eBay fees for an above average seller and charge for shipping, we would see a return of $.04 for Yahil Melendez and a return of $127 for Cam Schlittler. This means that early investors and individuals holding on to the product have less than a 2% chance for a positive ROI. Taking this one step further, I would consider a return of $.04 rather fruitless, leaving our chances of a positive ROI below 1%. Additionally, Cam Schlittler benefited from good fortunes, making his dominant MLB Postseason Debut 10 days post product release. I'm not saying that this never be replicated, but I think the circumstances of his situation were rather unique.

Regardless of the timeline each prospect takes, the sentiment remains the same. Sell early. Buy later.

We spent much of last week's article highlighting early market movement; Particularly the significant decline in nearly all prospect prices. Based on what we have already established and what is already understood, how would you expect the market to have responded in the last seven days? If we were to compare initial average prices to today's average prices, we would see much of the same that we saw last week. A vicious sea of red, highlighted by 3 prospects who have shown an increase in value, compared to our initial data points.

Before we dive into our analysis, I do want to highlight a few important events that have transpired over the last seven days.

  1. Cam Schlittler made his MLB Postseason Debut and absolutely dominated. He followed this up with another good start. Despite his individual performance, the Yankees were eliminated from the Postseason.
    1. His cards have seen a rise in price over the last seven days, but only two unique sales have occurred.
    2. I struggle to believe his current prices are sustainable, though there are a few factors at play. First, his public disowning of Boston may have earned him favor amongst the NY fan base. Secondly, he has the second fewest sales of any prospect with a 1st Bowman Chrome auto in this release. I don't believe this is due to a lack of interest. I do believe that his base auto may be a short-print.
  2. The Arizona Fall League started on October 6 and will continue through November 12, 2025. There are not a ton of prospects in this release who are participating, but there certainly are a few that may be worth watching.
  3. All 106 prospects in this checklist with a 1st Bowman Chrome auto have officially had sales. Elian De La Cruz was the last to join the list on 10/10/25.

With that being said, lets get into it:

2025 1st Bowman Chrome Base Auto Average Prices Based on Last 10 Sales [Highest Average Price - Lowest Average Price; % Changes Based on Average Price on FIRST DATE WITH 3 OR MORE SALES Compared To Today's Average Price]
Cam Schlittler: $110.00 → $256.72(+133.4%)
Ching-Hsien Ko: $276.25 → $144.78 (-47.6%)
Shotaro Morii: $274.00 → $124.00 (-54.7%)
Rainiel Rodriguez: $175.00 → $61.15 (-65.1%)
Josuar Gonzalez: $143.75 → $61.19 (-57.4%)
Elian Peña: $192.50 → $62.07 (-67.8%)
Cris Rodriguez: $135.10 → $44.70 (-66.9%)
Kevin Alvarez: $128.25 → $31.51 (-75.4%)
Nate George: $91.25 → $30.77 (-66.3%)
Andrew Salas: $96.99 → $19.40 (-80.0%)
Zach Cole: $102.10 → $21.04 (-79.4%)
Tommy White: $44.33 → $21.83 (-50.8%)
Diego Tornes: $58.00 → $21.07 (-63.7%)
Carlos Lagrange: $56.83 → $27.65 (-51.4%)
Yorger Bautista: $73.00 → $22.19 (-69.6%)
Juneiker Caceres: $60.00 → $20.29 (-66.2%)
Marco Dinges: $32.33 → $15.36 (-52.5%)
Luke Dickerson: $23.00 → $14.97 (-34.9%)
John Gil: $30.25 → $14.33 (-52.6%)
Elorky Rodriguez: $38.66 → $14.21 (-63.2%)
Ayden Johnson: $17.01 → $12.02 (-29.3%)
Alejandro Rosario: $22.67 → $12.06 (-46.8%)
Johan De Los Santos: $29.44 → $12.07 (-59.0%)
Gabriel Davalillo: $43.23 → $12.99 (-70.0%)
Mani Cedeno: $22.02 → $11.05 (-49.8%)
Kevin Defrank: $20.49 → $11.10 (-45.8%)
Harold Rivas: $30.00 → $10.68 (-64.4%)
David Sandlin: $18.40 → $10.25 (-44.3%)
David Ortiz Jr.: $18.25 → $16.64 (-8.8%)
Devin Fitz-Gerald: $17.67 → $11.29 (-36.1%)
Will Taylor: $10.04 → $7.34 (-26.9%)
Ramcell Medina: $15.38 → $7.15 (-53.5%)
Juan Cabada: $25.07 → $7.76 (-69.0%)
Spencer Giesting: $7.50 → $4.38 (-41.6%)
Wilfri De La Cruz: $25.32 → $8.48 (-66.5%)
Kenny Fenelon: $20.98 → $8.72 (-58.4%)
Liberts Aponte: $19.17 → $8.25 (-57.0%)
Asbel Gonzalez: $19.84 → $8.89 (-55.2%)
Ronny Cruz: $11.89 → $6.67 (-43.9%)
Moises Marchán: $15.10 → $6.88 (-54.4%)
Yulian Barreto: $18.75 → $6.42 (-65.8%)
DJ Layton: $16.99 → $5.87 (-65.5%)
Warren Calcaño: $13.30 → $7.09 (-46.7%)
Bryce Boettcher: $19.98 → $6.37 (-68.1%)
Jordan Sanchez: $31.83 → $8.60 (-73.0%)
Nestor Miranda: $9.47 → $5.26 (-44.5%)
Jose Anderson: $14.40 → $5.88 (-59.2%)
Haritzon Castillo: $11.25 → $5.69 (-49.4%)
Jhoan De La Cruz: $9.83 → $5.61 (-42.9%)
Brayan Cortesia: $15.33 → $6.31 (-58.8%)
Teilon Serrano: $9.66 → $5.86 (-39.3%)
Stiven Marinez: $21.00 → $6.44 (-69.3%)
Nick Lorusso: $12.50 → $5.16 (-58.7%)
Jakob Christian: $18.33 → $4.68 (-74.5%)
Ethan Pecko: $16.66 → $6.94 (-58.3%)
Djean Macares: $20.78 → $6.45 (-69.0%)
Maykel Coret: $31.25 → $9.03 (-71.1%)
Juan Tomas: $20.93 → $6.21 (-70.3%)
Bo Davidson: $44.79 → $16.82 (-62.5%)
Chase Hampton: $20.00 → $5.78 (-71.1%)
Angel Cepeda: $7.88 → $6.53 (-17.1%)
Trevor Harrison: $16.50 → $4.69 (-71.6%)
Brett Bateman: $18.50 → $4.69 (-74.7%)
Kale Fountain: $18.74 → $6.83 (-63.5%)
Warel Solano: $15.50 → $6.00 (-61.3%)
RJ Schreck: $10.00 → $3.48 (-65.2%)
Yairo Padilla: $34.80 → $13.53 (-61.1%)
Robert Hipwell: $9.88 → $4.17 (-57.8%)
Heins Brito: $9.99 → $3.90 (-61.0%)
Kai Roberts: $10.37 → $4.17 (-59.8%)
Miguel Ullola: $13.64 → $3.86 (-71.7%)
Henry Baez: $14.00 → $3.96 (-71.7%)
Santiago Leon: $10.33 → $3.90 (-62.2%)
Justice Bigbie: $20.33 → $5.10 (-74.9%)
Sammy Hernandez: $9.32 → $2.33 (-75.0%)
Raymer Medina: $9.50 → $2.39 (-74.8%)
Caden Powell: $14.25 → $3.02 (-78.8%)
Natanael Yuten: $24.37 → $5.47 (-77.5%)
Corey Cousin: $12.40 → $2.91 (-76.5%)
Darison Garcia: $14.50 → $3.54 (-75.6%)
Hiverson López: $9.00 → $3.20 (-64.4%)
Anyelo Marquez: $5.94 → $3.20 (-46.1%)
Blake Wolters: $7.52 → $3.83 (-49.1%)
Enry Torres: $5.33 → $4.31 (-19.1%)
Cristian Arguelles: $17.66 → $9.92 (-43.8%)
Elvin Garcia: $8.39 → $4.15 (-50.5%)
Yahil Melendez: $3.33 → $4.44 (+33.3%)
Jhonny Severino: $14.67 → $4.91 (-66.5%)
Kyle Karros: $28.33 → $5.35 (-81.1%)
Sadbiel Delzine: $33.25 → $6.19 (-81.4%)
Nieves Izaguirre: $28.33 → $5.06 (-82.1%)
Zander Darby: $20.57 → $3.58 (-82.6%)
Cade Smith: $29.00 → $4.88 (-83.2%)
Nathan Church: $43.32 → $6.71 (-84.5%)
Cristopher Acosta: $21.98 → $3.31 (-84.9%)
Sabier Marte: $23.55 → $2.85 (-87.9%)
Mavis Graves: $40.50 → $4.72 (-88.3%)
Matthew Etzel: $19.50 → $2.19 (-88.8%)
Christopher Suero: $33.33 → $6.40 (-80.8%)
Alirio Ferrebus: $24.47 → $4.72 (-80.7%)
Pedro Catuy: $9.03 → $3.29 (-63.6%)
Carlos Tavares: $7.45 → $2.52 (-66.2%)
Alessander De La Cruz: $3.50 → $3.34 (-4.6%)

We can see the results are quite similar to last week's results, with only two players showing any positive increase in value from the initial date in which they had recorded three or more sales. Because the results are quite similar, let's look to compare prices from last week's analysis to today's average price. This should give us a better picture at how things have changed over the last week.

2025 1st Bowman Chrome Base Auto Average Prices Based on Last 10 Sales [Highest Average Price - Lowest Average Price; % Changes Based on Average Price of LAST WEEK'S ANALYSIS Compared To Today's Average Price]
Cam Schlittler: $110.00 → $256.72 (+133.4%)
Ching-Hsien Ko: $244.70 → $144.78 (-40.8%)
Shotaro Morii: $207.50 → $124.00 (-40.2%)
Elian Peña: $100.35 → $62.07 (-38.1%)
Josuar Gonzalez: $82.32 → $61.19 (-25.7%)
Rainiel Rodriguez: $107.13 → $61.15 (-42.9%)
Cris Rodriguez: $66.16 → $44.70 (-32.4%)
Kevin Alvarez: $49.50 → $31.51 (-36.3%)
Nate George: $49.40 → $30.77 (-37.7%)
Carlos Lagrange: $47.15 → $27.65 (-41.4%)
Yorger Bautista: $45.27 → $22.19 (-51.0%)
Tommy White: $29.30 → $21.83 (-25.5%)
Diego Tornes: $32.02 → $21.07 (-34.2%)
Zach Cole: $38.19 → $21.04 (-44.9%)
Juneiker Caceres: $30.65 → $20.29 (-33.8%)
Andrew Salas: $34.36 → $19.40 (-43.5%)
Bo Davidson: $20.02 → $16.82 (-16.0%)
David Ortiz Jr.: $19.50 → $16.64 (-14.7%)
Marco Dinges: $29.55 → $15.36 (-48.0%)
Luke Dickerson: $19.71 → $14.97 (-24.1%)
John Gil: $22.20 → $14.33 (-35.5%)
Elorky Rodriguez: $20.35 → $14.21 (-30.2%)
Yairo Padilla: $15.20 → $13.53 (-11.0%)
Gabriel Davalillo: $19.86 → $12.99 (-34.6%)
Johan De Los Santos: $14.38 → $12.07 (-16.1%)
Alejandro Rosario: $13.84 → $12.06 (-12.9%)
Ayden Johnson: $14.33 → $12.02 (-16.1%)
Devin Fitz-Gerald: $14.41 → $11.29 (-21.6%)
Elian De La Cruz: $11.25 (no historical data)
Kevin Defrank: $13.95 → $11.10 (-20.4%)
Mani Cedeno: $11.21 → $11.05 (-1.4%)
Harold Rivas: $16.22 → $10.68 (-34.2%)
David Sandlin: $6.81 → $10.25 (+50.5%)
Cristian Arguelles: $19.34 → $9.92 (-48.7%)
Maykel Coret: $16.47 → $9.03 (-45.2%)
Asbel Gonzalez: $10.82 → $8.89 (-17.8%)
Kenny Fenelon: $9.46 → $8.72 (-7.8%)
Jordan Sanchez: $18.40 → $8.60 (-53.3%)
Wilfri De La Cruz: $22.40 → $8.48 (-62.1%)
Liberts Aponte: $9.55 → $8.25 (-13.6%)
Juan Cabada: $11.69 → $7.76 (-33.6%)
Will Taylor: $8.43 → $7.34 (-12.9%)
Ramcell Medina: $11.82 → $7.15 (-39.5%)
Warren Calcaño: $11.88 → $7.09 (-40.3%)
Ethan Pecko: $6.27 → $6.94 (+10.7%)
Moises Marchán: $8.54 → $6.88 (-19.4%)
Kale Fountain: $9.50 → $6.83 (-28.1%)
Nathan Church: $7.75 → $6.71 (-13.4%)
Ronny Cruz: $9.32 → $6.67 (-28.4%)
Angel Cepeda: $7.88 → $6.53 (-17.1%)
Djean Macares: $8.97 → $6.45 (-28.1%)
Stiven Marinez: $11.50 → $6.44 (-44.0%)
Yulian Barreto: $11.00 → $6.42 (-41.6%)
Christopher Suero: $16.54 → $6.40 (-61.3%)
Bryce Boettcher: $14.04 → $6.37 (-54.6%)
Brayan Cortesia: $11.05 → $6.31 (-42.9%)
Juan Tomas: $13.54 → $6.21 (-54.1%)
Sadbiel Delzine: $9.25 → $6.19 (-33.1%)
Warel Solano: $9.09 → $6.00 (-34.0%)
Jose Anderson: $7.31 → $5.88 (-19.6%)
DJ Layton: $7.03 → $5.87 (-16.5%)
Teilon Serrano: $9.19 → $5.86 (-36.2%)
Chase Hampton: $12.02 → $5.78 (-51.9%)
Haritzon Castillo: $7.47 → $5.69 (-23.8%)
Jhoan De La Cruz: $10.40 → $5.61 (-46.1%)
Anderson Brito: $5.78 → $5.55 (-4.0%)
Natanael Yuten: $6.88 → $5.47 (-20.5%)
Kyle Karros: $9.30 → $5.35 (-42.5%)
Nestor Miranda: $7.11 → $5.26 (-26.0%)
Nick Lorusso: $8.69 → $5.16 (-40.6%)
Justice Bigbie: $7.27 → $5.10 (-29.9%)
Nieves Izaguirre: $6.44 → $5.06 (-21.4%)
Jhonny Severino: $7.45 → $4.91 (-34.1%)
Cade Smith: $12.65 → $4.88 (-61.4%)
Alirio Ferrebus: $7.76 → $4.72 (-39.2%)
Mavis Graves: $14.35 → $4.72 (-67.1%)
Trevor Harrison: $12.55 → $4.69 (-62.6%)
Brett Bateman: $8.51 → $4.69 (-44.9%)
Jakob Christian: $11.50 → $4.68 (-59.3%)
Jakob Wright: $7.03 → $4.66 (-33.7%)
Yahil Melendez: $6.84 → $4.44 (-35.1%)
Spencer Giesting: $7.21 → $4.38 (-39.2%)
Enry Torres: $3.47 → $4.31 (+24.2%)
Robert Hipwell: $8.10 → $4.17 (-48.5%)
Kai Roberts: $4.73 → $4.17 (-11.8%)
Elvin Garcia: $8.14 → $4.15 (-49.0%)
Henry Baez: $4.82 → $3.96 (-17.8%)
Heins Brito: $5.74 → $3.90 (-32.1%)
Santiago Leon: $7.99 → $3.90 (-51.2%)
Miguel Ullola: $8.82 → $3.86 (-56.2%)
Blake Wolters: $5.67 → $3.83 (-32.5%)
Zander Darby: $7.56 → $3.58 (-52.6%)
Darison Garcia: $5.76 → $3.54 (-38.5%)
RJ Schreck: $5.92 → $3.48 (-41.2%)
Alessander De La Cruz: $4.22 → $3.34 (-20.9%)
Cristopher Acosta: $6.20 → $3.31 (-46.6%)
Pedro Catuy: $6.00 → $3.29 (-45.2%)
Hiverson López: $5.65 → $3.20 (-43.4%)
Anyelo Marquez: $5.32 → $3.20 (-39.9%)
Caden Powell: $5.95 → $3.02 (-49.2%)
Corey Cousin: $6.14 → $2.91 (-52.6%)
Sabier Marte: $10.33 → $2.85 (-72.4%)
Carlos Tavares: $3.45 → $2.52 (-27.0%)
Raymer Medina: $5.54 → $2.39 (-56.9%)
Sammy Hernandez: $2.70 → $2.33 (-13.7%)
Matthew Etzel: $4.54 → $2.19 (-51.8%)

As you can see, prices continued to drop for the significant majority of our sample size. Cam Schlittler, David Sandlin, Ethan Pecko, and Enry Torres showed some positive regression. Elian De La Cruz has no historical data points to compare too. So if we subtract Elian De La Cruz from our list of 106 prospects, we are left with 105. Stated otherwise, 4.7% of prospects showed some increase in price from the prices used in our 10/06/25 analysis.

This analysis was conducted using prices from 10/14/25, exactly three weeks from the date of the product release. Theoretically, we should start to see markets stagnate, or start to positively increase. We will look to revisit this article next week. With weekly or bi-weekly updates, hopefully we will be able to pinpoint an approximated timeline of events, allowing us to be most informed as we look to start investing in prospects from this release. I will also try to post an article, on the date of any positive growth for any of the top "chases" in this product, as I have received several questions and comments regarding when the time to buy some of these players might be. As always, feel free to reach out with any questions on Twitter or in Discord.