2025 Bowman Preview

Intro

Another year, another Bowman checklist with some of the hottest prospect names in the industry. We take a deep dive into each prospect with a 1st Bowman card in the product from a Hobby perspective. Here's to hoping that all of you opening packs and boxes find Jesus (Made).

Check out the 2025 Bowman TLDR article for your quick reference needs.

Tier Ranks

Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.

Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.

Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc. 

Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.

*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.

Risk and Ceiling Grades

We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player. 

Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.  

Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc). 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

Slade Caldwell, 18, OF

Caldwell was the Diamondbacks 1st Round pick at 29th overall last year, with a consensus evaluation right around there. He’s only 5’8” but he has a very well built physique already – he may be nearly maxed out but there’s little fear of this guy getting out-physicaled at the lower levels. He’s at least a plus runner at present, which should stick as he fine-tunes his body, and is an aggressive runner on the bases. It’s not just a raw premium physique either – he knows how to use it in the box to really hit the ball with authority with excellent bat speed. It’s a sound swing without any real defect considering he’s not really trying to hit for power – which is just fine, as hard line drives are just as effective. Caldwell was deployed immediately to Low-A to begin this year where he’s showing no issues making quality contact. He’s ripped 9 XBH in his first 13 games. The K% is a little high to start but it’s more because he works counts very deep and gets it wrong with two strikes sometimes – I would expect this to level out pretty soon. The ceiling of his power is not fantastic. However, the other tools in his bag may all have potential to end up as above average or better – he’s a premium defender in CF and has a good-enough arm to pair with it. That would make him a star in the mold of Corbin Carroll (albeit with less homers). Pretty nice ceiling, right? There’s only a small chance he gets to it, but even the 80th% outcome is a valuable piece of an MLB lineup. He might come in a little undervalued because the lack of true power is readily apparent – but if he continues to show the dynamism he is right now, ooh baby am I in love. Because of that dynamism I already have him a hair above Kevin McGonigle, which is definitely a hot take since they're in a similar mold and McGonigle has a more surefire hit tool. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier 3

Jansel Luis, 20, INF

There’s going to have to be a little bit of having faith and trusting the process, as last year he hadn't gained enough muscle to prove anything yet, but there’s quite a bit of offensive ceiling with Luis. Right now he just looks really smooth from both sides of the plate. Holding his hands high in a classic power-hitter’s position, he has a great feel for the rhythm of his swing and it shows – for a player as underdeveloped as he is, the 21 K% at Low-A last year at age 19 is pretty nice. He’s excellent at pitch identification and not chasing – a feather in his cap that made the Diamondbacks decision to move him up to High-A to begin 2025 an easy one. But as for zone contact? Yeah, it’s not great yet. He’s also quite aggressive in the zone, and raw in his ability to go to all fields. All of this can (maybe?) be cured by adding strength though, right? That should cure the lack of HR output as well, a tool which may end up as his best when all is said and done. (He did show some juice last year in smacking 46 XBH). Luis does look to have transformed his upper body a bit this offseason, gaining some of that needed muscle. Now he just has to learn how to trust that longer swing with his anecdotally better bat speed. Defensively he’s being tried out at 3B this year in addition to SS and 2B – I think 2B will end up as his home where he projects as an above-average defender. Luis is not a dart throw – he’s better than that. He just doesn’t quite look the part yet from a numbers perspective. If that affords him a buying opportunity in the hobby, I’m in. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Ricardo Yan, P, 22

Great stats don’t tell the full story with Yan – holding hitters to a .184 average with a 32 K% are excellent numbers every day of the week. But there’s many warts under the hood, especially in the hobby context. When one looks at Yan pitch it’s easy to see why he’s so frequently pegged as a future reliever. First, he’s rail thin, and though he is 6’4” his narrow shoulders don’t offer much in the way of projection. Second, he has a sidearm delivery with a shorter arm action – it’s a unique trait that provides great deception, but not one I’ve ever seen be successful in a SP. Third, his command has never ticked above below-average, and that delivery is partially to blame for it. Fourth, he doesn’t have a very good fastball. It’s not really velocity that’s the issue (he works with it around 91-93) – it’s just very flat. He rarely deploys that as a pitch later in counts. The good thing is that he has a fantastic slider with great downward bite (which he can loop into a slurvy option), and a change-up with some nice tumble down and in to righties. So he has those two pitches with above-average or better projection – that gives him well-defined potential to reach the majors. But how long can he keep going with a large workload throwing those two pitches 60% of the time? The answer is likely that he won’t, and as he continues to creep closer to the majors he’ll be converted to shorter and shorter outings. His first two outings this year at High-A were already not starts. There’s quite a bit of upside with Yan. But reliever upside is almost never highly regarded in the hobby, and as he’s a year-plus away I hate to say that his dynamic arm is fair to ignore at this juncture. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Both

Bo Walker, 19, OF

When the Diamondbacks drafted three College Seniors in Rounds 7-10 last year, it was clear they had ideas of drafting an overslot lottery ticket in Round 11. That player ended up being Walker, who was signed away from his Georgia Tech commitment for 500k (4th Round money). He has a long, lean projectable 6’3” frame and is currently a plus runner and a good OF defender. At the plate it’s a fairly simple setup, albeit one with a big leg kick. After his strides he moves his hands back quite a bit and can get into an arm bar before his swing, which would affect his ability to hit for contact in the long run. Other than that though, there’s a clean transfer of power in his swing and it looks quite smooth. He’s headed to the Complex for his Pro Debut, which I’d expect considering he has a lot of filling out to do. He’s squarely just a lottery ticket at this juncture, but the toolkit is quite nice. Lots of potential outcomes, but reaching the majors in a significant role is certainly one of them. There’s not enough information on his measurable baseball skills to move him out of Tier None for now. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both

Yu-Min Lin, 21, P

Lin lit up the lower levels of the minors prior to 2024, but more advanced hitting exposed Lin’s soft tossing repertoire for what it mostly profiles as - a backend innings eater that will need to survive through deception and limiting hard contact. His K rate, which dropped below 30% for the first time in his first pass at Double-A to end the 2023 season, fell even further in his second go through in 2024 down to under 22%. His groundball rate in that same 2024 Double-A stint was 45%, which is fine, but nothing to write home about. I saw him put to many pitches in the heart of the zone and that’s just not going to work against good hitters. That’s because his fastball is usually in the high 80’s to low 90’s and doesn’t have any special characteristics that would help it play up. The secondaries are what keeps him relevant, especially the change-up when it’s on. The slurvy curveball/slider is the one he commands the best in the looks I had, but it just didn’t get the swing and miss that you’d hope with his best secondary. Overall the command was spotty, and there was a lot of pitches that were left in the dirt or sailing outside the zone to the arm-side. His delivery is unconventional and fun - I can’t but help think it’s almost like he’s doing a rock-a-bye-baby thing. Not the Luis Garcia Astros style, but just a lot of arm and walking motion towards the arm side. That may be why his command isn’t as consistent as I expected with his lower velocity. Typically the lower velocity arms find success through command, but Lin seemingly relies more on the deception end of the spectrum. Prior to 2024, I was on the side of the fence that Lin would be able to hang in an MLB rotation. Now, I’m starting to lean to the other side of the fence - more of a swingman, org-depth, follower, long reliever type seems to be the likeliest outcome. One final note - Lin is currently ramping up in extended Spring Training - so we don’t have any new looks to see how he’s bouncing back from the underwhelming 2024 season. He missed most of Spring Training as he had to return to Taiwan for a military obligation. Speaking of Taiwan, Lin pitched in the gold medal match against Samurai Japan in Tokyo this past November at the Premier 12 International Competition and shut them down over four innings, helping Taiwan win the gold medal. That notoriety is not to be discounted, and that International appeal with a recent big result to back it up is why his cards will potentially have more value than you would expect given his profile. Unfortunately, it’s base cards only, so the value to be had isn’t as high as it could be. I’d be selling into that initial hype as much as possible. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 4 Base Only

Athletics

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Steven Echavarria, 19, P

The A’s went way overslot ($3M bonus for a $1M slot value) in the third round of the 2023 MLB Draft to sign the prep righty out of New Jersey. Echavarria is a work in progress right now, but the raw clay is there for a mid-rotation starter. I saw a variety of pitches from him - a four seamer and a sinker that ranged from 92 - 97, a slider in the mid-80’s, a lesser-used curve-ball in the the high 70’s, and a change-up in the upper 80’s that looked really good, but he threw on only a few occasions. The command was iffy at times, and pair that with an over-reliance on the fastball, it’s easy to see that this is going to be a slow burn. In the long run, I’m keeping my eye on Echavarria. A full arsenal, potential for premium velocity as he adds more mass, and possibly one or two swing and miss, plus breakers/off-speed pitches lends itself to a future SP3 or better. I wouldn’t go spending a lot on Echavarria at the moment, but I’d pick up some cheap lottery tickets once the release hype dies down. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Dylan Fien, 19, C

The A’s 7th round pick in 2024 out of the Southern California prep ranks, Fien took just under double slot value, signing for $550K, to forgo his commitment to UCLA. Not making our top 300 prep prospects heading into the draft isn’t a great place to start from a prospect pedigree perspective, and he wasn’t on our Athletics Top 20 list released back in April. Part of that is the pedigree and our draft team evaluation, and part of that is we’ve yet to see a single pro at bat from Fien. All that we have to go off of is some high school and all-star circuit video, which is mostly highlights and batting cage stuff where players rarely if ever look bad. He does look the part physically, reportedly at 6’3” and 210 pounds - not your typical softer catcher build, but more of the physical specimen type. There is some mention of first base in his profile as well, so how the A’s deploy him defensively is something to monitor, but he was listed as a catcher at the draft and he’s often shown in his catcher gear. One additional note on Dylan is that his younger brother Gavin is one year behind Dylan, and is currently one of the top prep bats in the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft where he is being mocked in the first round and potentially as a Top 10 pick. It doesn’t truly impact Dylan’s evaluation, but that alone may drive some speculation on Dylan’s cards. It’s another dart throw, tentative ranking and Ceiling grade, with a recommendation to wait and see how his first taste of pro ball looks before jumping to conclusions (or spending money). With the catcher tag potentially limiting his value, it’s an easier reason to rank him in Tier None and not spend your Hobby dollars on his cards, at least for now. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Both

Nate Nankil, 22, OF

The A’s 7th round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Nankil reminds me of oatmeal. When you’re hungry, it does the job, but there’s very little excitement while you’re eating it. He’s sort of average all around with a floor of a strong side platoon corner outfielder. His Ceiling isn’t much more than that - basically a second division regular with a .250-.260 average, 10-15 home runs, and decent OBP. That decent OBP comes from a patient or passive approach, depending on your definition. I didn’t see him doing much first pitch swinging, and his above average contact rates helped him foul off pitches he couldn’t handle. That swing rate is low, but the contact rates tend to live in the 80% range, so when he does swing, he tends to make contact. That’s enough to find some sort of MLB relevancy. On the other hand, I just don’t see enough for me to be interested in from a Hobby perspective - no speed, decent contact, average home run totals, not a collectible team, and no real prospect pedigree. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both

Sam Stuhr, 22, P

Prospects that have their 1st Bowman as a Paper Auto only almost always are players we can ignore for the Hobby. Sure, we get exceptions and the one that obviously springs to mind for me is James Outman, even if that rocket ride up has plummeted a lot faster than most foresaw. Long story short, I don’t expect Stuhr to buck the trend of 1st Bowman Paper Auto only players and would spend my Hobby dollars elsewhere. Stuhr has a mid-90’s fastball, slider, and curveball. Announcers were talking about a cutter as well in his arsenal that looked very similar to his slider, but the Stockton camera angles are not good, and that’s putting it mildly. Stuhr has had one pro outing at the time of writing - a three inning long relief start in Single-A at the aforementioned Stockton ballpark, and what I saw lived up to the draft report from our team (ranked 191 in our final 2024 MLB Draft Top 300). Command was an issue, the fastball didn’t get past many bats, and the breaking stuff got more than its fair share of swing and miss. That one look for me confirms, in a very small sample, so take it with a grain of salt, that Stuhr profiles more as a reliever at the moment. Add all of that together - Paper Auto only, some command issues, and already pitching in relief - and it’s an easy call for Tier None and not a place to spend your Hobby dollar. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3 Paper Auto Only

Will Simpson, 23, 1B

Drafted in the 15th round by the Athletics out of the University of Washington in 2023, Simpson was included as part of the package sent to the Rays this past off-season for Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez. It’s never the best scenario when a player gets their 1st Bowman card in a team uniform that they no longer sport. But, you never want to discount a prospect the Rays trade for as they have proven their scouting department is one of the best out there. And that’s the main thing I can hang my hat on with Simpson. He’s got above average power, but the contact concerns (for example - 24th percentile zone contact in High-A in 2024) make it difficult to project him for that as his game power output against MLB pitching. He’s not going to run, and his defense isn’t anything to write home about. As a right/right first baseman, the bar is even higher to climb over to get to an everyday player at the MLB level, and he may need to figure out left field at some point for a future defensive home. The deck is stacked against Simpson, even with the positive move to the Rays, and isn’t someone I’d spend Hobby dollars on. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Both

Atlanta Braves

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Didier Fuentes, 19, P

Signed out of Colombia in 2022 as an IFA, Fuentes broke through as a low-minors name to watch last year, pitching to a fantastic 25.9 K-BB% while holding hitters to a .200 average. But now – like right now – we might be seeing the true breakout. He’s only 6’0” and his body type isn’t great, but he has a nice, easy three-quarters delivery with less effort than many of his stature. His fastball was markedly faster this spring – now up to 96 from my look – but it’s shape is really what’s most impressive. There’s some pretty special armside run on it, with ride up in the zone as well. It’s a pitch that he threw very frequently last year, and it was clearly his go too for whiff as well. But now, he also seems to have gained more confidence in his slider and change as well – I saw the slider at 87 with some very nice sweep to it. His change is more of a work in progress and inconsistent, but at its best it shows promise of being average or better as well. But here’s the most important tidbit – he started this year at High-A , then after three starts he was promoted to AA. The Braves, a Top 5 pitching development org, have faith that the gains he showed this spring are here to stay, and we should all be paying attention to that (although it was a rude awakening to AA). Only 19 until late June, the next step in his development is hitting the 100 IP milestone, one that he was on track for last year until being shut down with a blister. I’m 80% sure he’s not in consideration for a call-up until late next year, even if the secondaries continue to improve as they have. The fastball is already likely good enough to play in the majors – with this being the Braves, that’s where the 20% comes in – they may deem him a worthy fill-in for their bullpen down the stretch. Despite his stature I do think his long-term future is as a starter, and at least high-K mid-rotation one at that. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Jhancarlos Lara, 22, P

A Dominican IFA back in 2021, Lara has steadily worked his way through the Braves’ system and now pitches in AA Columbus’s rotation. However, I have real questions about his ability to stick in that rotation. Lara has never had a BB% under 10% at any stop, and last year it stood at a very ugly 16.2%. He also only has two pitches that he throws with any frequency. But the thing is, they both get whiffs with great frequency. His mid 90’s fastball gets great ride up in the zone, and it plays off of his high-80’s power slider very well. These are both potential above-average or better pitches. They deodorize his walk rate quite a bit, but will it be enough? Does he absolutely need to develop his change more as a third offering? These are questions that should be answered this year, and if the early returns are any indication…it’s just more question marks. In his first 4 starts he was obliterated in two outings, but also had two outings with 7 K (one of which was the same outing!). He’s also already back to a high BB%. He’s likely to be given this entire year yet to see if he can remain a starter, but I can imagine he could be quite nice as a reliever. To me, that gives him some floor. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Base Only

Luke Sinnard, 22, P

At 6’8” and coming over-the-top with his delivery, Sinnard certainly has a domineering presence on the mound. After transferring from Western Kentucky to Indiana and proving that he has what it takes to pitch on that bigger stage, Sinnard needed TJ in August of 2023 – he did not pitch in any competitive environments in 2024. The Braves took him 99th overall where they’ll see him through the final stages of his recovery – there’s probably an innings limit this year and a build up to performance, but look for a return for his raw stuff in 2025 at least. Looking into my crystal ball, it’s easy to chalk up what may look like poor command to his size, but that part of his game was really good in 2023. So any real control issues can likely be attributed to rust in a return from surgery. Sinnard has a true starter’s mix with 4 pitches – fastball, curve, slider/cutter, and split/change. The Braves tend to streamline and refine pitch shape so the exact details of what each pitch looked like aren’t representative of what we’ll see as a pro, but it’s the curve that’ll very likely remain as his best breaker, as it’s really nasty dropping straight down from 7 feet in the air. His fastball was only in the low-90’s but the high release point is such a unique trait that it was wildly effective in college when paired with his offspeed pitches – an 11.9 K/9 in total. Sinnard definitely has the high-K mid-rotation upside that’s a baseline for a decent hobby name, but he ticks down just a hair because he won’t see a full workload until 2026, his age-24 season. He is active at Low-A to begin 2025 – take a look – but his pitch counts are quite restrictive. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Base Only 

Baltimore Orioles

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Aron Estrada, 20, 2B

I mentioned Estrada in our 2025 Bowman Wishlist piece as an honorable mention, briefly noting that his aggressive style of play has been quite successful. It had earned him a trip to High-A at age 19, which is a nice feather in his cap. Now, when I say he’s aggressive, I mean he swings at a lot of pitches…and makes contact with a lot of pitches. He doesn’t get beat outside of the zone easily even though he swings at so many of them. To date, it hasn’t really affected his quality of contact yet as he’s run reasonable BABIPs. I do wonder if a better approach and swinging a little less would let him get to something truly great in terms of exit velocity numbers. He swings very hard, selling out his front half to get as much torque as possible from his 5’8” frame. But with his excellent hand-eye coordination it resulted in just a 16 K% last year. He’s adept at going to all fields already as well. He’s quite speedy and aggressive on the bases, but his base-stealing acumen needs work, having been caught 13 times in 52 attempts last year. Pretty much everything I’ve written here tells you he’s the type of player that will drive coaches crazy with some decisions, just to have them praising him on the next, right? Maturity should alleviate much of that. What I don’t know that maturity will alleviate is the fact that he’s quite poor in the field. He’s played everywhere, but that’s only because he’s good nowhere. Hiding him in LF might be the end result here, assuming his route running can improve enough. I’m not too worried about the defense thing in my hobby mindset. If he gets to above average with his hit and average power paired with the above average speed he already has, he’ll make it to the majors. I’m definitely willing to chase Estrada, even with the caveat that he’s not likely to ever be a star. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both

Elvin Garcia, 18, SS

Some DSL teams have streams that can be watched on youtube and some don’t. And then there are teams like the DSL Orioles that do have streams, but you might as well not watch them. Sadly that means we are back to relying on reports and statline scouting unless you can find a rare away game that is streamed from a team’s feed that is worth watching. Unfortunately that isn’t the case with Garcia, who by all accounts is an exciting prospect. Signed for just $500K, the 2024 DSL results right now makes it look like the Orioles got a bargain. Garcia put up a 153 wRC+ with a higher walk rate (19%) than strikeout rate (18%). Even with just one home run, a .211 ISO speaks to the potential for more if development focuses on that aspect. That will require him to bulk up as he’s reportedly just 165 pounds, but tall enough at 6’2” to make you hope it is possible for good muscle mass to be added. There’s enough speed and baserunning acumen to get more than the chip in steals, but it doesn’t seem like it will be a big part of his game at maturity. Our own Juicy Jensen was effusive in his write-up of Garcia in his 2024 Top 50 DSL prospects 17 and under article back in September, ranking him 7th overall. Unfortunately Garcia only has base cards in this product, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him get autos in 2025 Bowman Chrome later in the year (fingers crossed). If you like to take risks, I can easily see this as a place to do it. Depending on the price, I might be doing some of that risk-taking myself. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8 Base Only

Tier None

None

Boston Red Sox

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

Jhostynxon Garcia, 22, OF

The Password is one of the players I had in my Honorable Mention section of our 2025 Preseason Bowman Wishlist article. At that point, the hit tool was my biggest question. After a small sample of just 16 games in 2025 as of writing, it looks like he’s really toned down the swing and chase. He was swinging at 54% of pitches last season across all levels, which is essentially in the range of the top 20th percentile of swing rates. In 2025 he’s swinging at just 43% of pitches which has him in the 30th percentile. The resulting walk rate bump is huge, going from a 7% walk rate in 2024 to a 20% walk rate at present. That more patient approach would go a long way towards alleviating my concerns with Garcia being an everyday regular if it has any sort of stickiness. When watching the tape, I am also seeing that patience in practice, which gives me confidence to bump my evaluation from where I was at in the preseason. If this sticks, he's a power/speed corner outfielder that goes from a solid outfielder with part-timer risk to a locked-in everyday outfielder that can hit in the middle of the lineup. The speed may not age well, as he’s a bit of a thicker frame. He may start in the 20-ish stolen base territory when he debuts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that falls closer to 10 - 15 as he ages. At the moment, he looks like a .260 - .280 25/15 hitter, which jumps him into the bottom of Tier 2. The cool nickname and collectable team helps push him over that borderline into Tier 2 from Tier 3, which is where I had him coming into the season. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7 Both

Franklin Arias, 19, SS

Arias signed as an IFA in January of 2023 for $525k, and quickly confirmed he was as advertised. Last year in the Complex he was very impressive, slashing .355/.471/.584 as an age-appropriate 18 YO. But he’s more about his hit tool than power, and he was a little overmatched in his taste of Low-A because he was physically underdeveloped – he looked like a skinny teen. That’s changed a little for 2025 with some added muscle in his upper body, and he’s also made a swing adjustment. He still uses a slow, big leg kick and has a low placement with his hands and has great trust in his barrel control. But what’s changed is that he loads back with his arms and upper body less. That lets him get to the ball much quicker, and the improved physique makes his impact pretty much the same. He’s just more on time, and the early results are a .346/.407/.397 slash through 19 games. That hot start earned him a promotion to High-A, an excellent sign for a player who will still be a teenager all season. He’s always shown an excellent ability at being patient and not getting beat outside the zone, and in this small 2025 snapshot his SwStr remains elite – 5.4%. That’s not to say anything for his power. His improved physicality was not to the ends of getting to more power, and that’s a little frustrating even though there is room to add more strength. Right now it’s tough to project him to getting to more than 15 HR at peak. He’s an OK runner, but he’s better on the bases than his straight-line speed dictates – perhaps as he grows into his body he maintains a 15-20 SB ceiling? His defensive highlights at SS lead me to believe he could stick there, perhaps as an average or better asset, but he’s likely a premium defender at 2B or 3B. In the Boston market he’ll be treated very, very well. That hurts my recommendation for him as a buy at release, but we could quite easily be looking at an above-average big leaguer as a ceiling. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier 3

None

Tier None

Conrad Cason, 18, TWP

Cason was the Red Sox’ big overslot get in the 8th Round of last year’s Draft, signing for $1.25 MM. It’s a legitimate question on which way Cason will go – pitcher or SS? He’ll work as a two-way player for now, which means he’ll likely see limited action in the Complex season this year. Hobby-wise he will be a player to put a pin in for a while – he’s raw at both positions. Personally, I like him better as a pitcher. As a hitter he looks fairly underwhelming. He doesn’t get into anything resembling a good position to impact the ball, including having his hands low and a base that’s not wide enough, even after his stride. On the mound he’s more impressive. He comes from a classic over-the-top delivery, but he does hide the ball well. His fastball that’s already topped out at 98, generally working in the low 90’s with several more ticks to gain as he matures into his 6`1” frame. His slider is a tight, low-80’s offering with more drop than sweep, and his split change (which he throws less right now) also features some very nice drop and fade. There’s a lot of command gains to be had, as he fell out of balance on quite a few pitches I saw leading to some easy takes for hitters. Cason has a long, long way to go. There’s a lot of paths to tread here, but hobby wise he appears headed toward one with an anecdotal lower ceiling (pitchers < hitters, power hitters > contact hitters). No doubt about the talent, but I’m not interested. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both

Blake Aita, P, 21

Not all paper autograph subjects are nobodies. As Aita was just drafted last year and he was only a Sophomore at Kennesaw State, I think it’s fair to give him a chance. Aita’s fastball velocity gained at least two ticks in his time in college (he now sits 92-95), and his secondaries have developed a bit of polish as well. It’s the sweeper that is his most interesting pitch. He used to have a curveball as well, but the sweeper proved so effective that it’s become his sole breaker now. He throws a cutter to keep hitters looking for the sweeper honest, and a change that’s a hand-dependent offering against lefties. He also has a very nice and well built 6’4” frame to work with. It’s pretty easy to see why the Red Sox took the 300k shot on Aita in the 6th Round. The negatives are that his command is currently fringy, as many sweeper-heavy pitchers are, and there’s only the one above-average pitch in his arsenal at present. I don’t think he’ll ever really have the high-K upside we like in the hobby. Still, he has a legitimate shot to develop as a starter. Being a paper auto hurts any true interest he may have had, but team collectors should definitely get a piece or two on the cheap. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Paper Auto Only

D’Angelo Ortiz, 20, 3B

This is one of two David Ortiz sons in this product, and probably the better of them. I don’t know if that’s saying much. Drafted in the 19th Round after attending Miami Dade College for two years, Ortiz is a contact hitter whose power projection looks to be all tied to his bloodlines. His swing doesn’t look like one that generates a lot of lift, and in his second Collegiate year he had only 4 XBH in 174 AB’s. That’s not new for him – it was a similar story on other Collegiate showcase teams. He sets his hands low, moves them around quite a bit, and uses a high leg kick before unleashing a very whippy swing that doesn’t use his lower half very well. Sort of what you’d expect considering the lack of impact. The thing is, his speed is merely average. He needs to hit line drives to continue this success, and at any full-season level, that’s a tough ask. I will absolutely not legislate his collectability though. David Ortiz is a Red Sox legend, and having his son on a baseball card in the same uniform is something special for many collectors. Just not for the masses. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3 Both

Chicago Cubs

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Jonathon Long, 23, 1B

A 9th Round pick in 2023 from Long Beach State (the jokes write themselves folks), Long didn’t truly do much until last year – and man did he come on strong. He was OK in High-A to begin the year, but he really broke out in AA with a .340/.455/.528 in 200 PA, then continued to perform in the AFL. He seems to know who he is at the plate, even though there are some moving parts in his setup. He starts in an upright stance then sinks down with his knees before taking a short stride in which he opens his hip while rotating his top half backwards and lowering his hands to a position where he can strike quickly at the ball. Yes, it does lead to a few timing issues, but not in terms of quality of contact. He’s quite adept at going to the opposite field, and with significant power. Overall, his power still only stands as above average, and his hit a tick below that. It’s still a great get for the Cubs that late in the Draft, and it’s clear he’s a depth option for the big club as soon as this year now. It’s the defensive spectrum thing that holds him back the most. He’s not 1B-only, as he’s seen some time in 3B and LF, but he’s not an average defender anywhere. There’s just going to have to be busting-down of the door that’s driven entirely by his bat. It should happen at some point, but this year? The last that we can call him having a “young” debut? I’m not sure that’s in the cards. Perhaps a September call-up? Risk: 3 Ceiling: 5 Both

Tier None

None

Chicago White Sox

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Javier Mogollon, 19, 2B

Although he only signed for $75k in January of 2023, he quickly proved that his tools were louder than that with a fantastic 2023 DSL season. There’s a few things that are quite striking when one looks at Mogollon at the plate. First, he makes himself very, very small. He’s only 5’8” to start, but he begins in a very wide stance. Second is the unnatural, arrhythmic foot stomp he employs when taking his stride. Sure, if he times it up with the pitch it looks fairly normal. But man it’s weird to see a player stabbing his foot into the ground like that. He certainly gives him a ton of torque in his swing – that’s why you see him running such an obscene BABIP – .433 last year in the Complex. It’s also how he gets so much power from his small frame (22 XBH in 46 games). And it also explains his abysmal K% – nearly 40%. It’s not that he whiffs a ton, it’s that his timing is off enough that he hits a lot of foul balls and gets in counts that get him into trouble. He does not have a good feel for the barrel, but his raw ability and great bat speed are enough to say that there’s quite a bit of intrigue with his power. He’s just extremely raw. He does have a decent approach – he’s not some wild swinger – this is a player who posted an OBP over .400 last year in the Complex to pair with all the power. To me, his issues seem very coachable. He does already seem to have made some strides to begin the year at Low-A. I’m more than willing to take a few shots on Mogollon, but beyond the hit tool question, he’s also likely limited to 2B because of his size. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

None

Cincinnati Reds

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Sammy Stafura, 20, SS

Drafted in the 2nd Round as a New York prep in 2023 and signed to an overslot $2.5 MM, I’ve been a fan of his since the Draft (as many are). However, it’s not quite going as smoothly as I hoped. Stafura’s first full season in pro ball started very well. Through May 31 last year he was slashing .309/.410/.529 in Low-A, good for a 138 wRC+. But since then, including the first few weeks this year, he’s slipped to a .258/.385/.373. I initially attributed it to the grind of the MiLB season, but I’m not so sure anymore. His reassignment to Low-A to begin this year tells part of that story, and his slower start confirms it. There’s some real struggles with contact quality right now. He still looks good in the box. He seems every bit the part of a strong, young player that should get to at least average power with his simple setup. There is a bit of stiffness to his swing though – he’s more about bat speed than barrel control, though he’s not a dead pull hitter either. That stiffer swing leads to a fair amount of whiff, but perhaps more importantly a bit of trouble getting the ball into play (i.e. foul balls). That gets him into deep counts, which clearly has affected his walks, strikeouts, and quality of contact. His high BB% is not a marker of a good hit tool in his case – make no mistake. He’s quite raw in that aspect, but there’s still hope that ends up as an above average tool. If you’re willing to forgive these warts, his athleticism is much less in question. There’s a real shot that he can stick at SS, which is buoyed by his range and speed that stands as at least a plus asset. He stole 31 bases in 36 attempts last year – not quite an elite mark, but he should very much continue to be a threat out there. Stafura is a bit of a tricky evaluation right now. I’ve got him with a slight down arrow. I think he’ll be a popular name in this release regardless – I do still believe in the non-offensive tools. But for my money, I’d prefer to see him pull out of the nearly yearlong lack of impact. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7 Both

Tier None

Naibel Mariano, 18, SS

Signed for $1.65 MM in January 2024, Mariano is a 6’3” athletic specimen with loads of projection. But it really is just all projection for now. Everything, even the speed which you’d think is his best current asset, is raw in terms of baseball skill. Mariano stands in at the plate looking like a normal hitter with a slightly open stance and his hands high, but then it all gets wonky. As he strides he never fully closes his front hip, and he also moves his hands all around before his swing. It’s no wonder at all that he hit .188 last year. Still his K% wasn’t atrocious considering, and he showed a semblance of an approach. They don't give these kinds of bonuses to everyone, and I do see the raw tools. Whether they ever develop though is still a massive question – one that will likely see its next progression in a DSL repeat (my speculation). There’s extreme risk, but also extreme reward potential here. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both

Ichiro Cano Hernandez, 20, 3B

Talk about a baseball word salad! It’s not what it sounds like though – Ichiro is the name of a friend of Cano’s father, and Hernandez is simply his maternal surname. He’s Ichiro Cano on every baseball site you’ll see. He hails from Mexico, signing in February of 2024 and went to the DSL as a 19 year old. There’s never going to be much one can glean from a player of that age playing in that league. But we can say two things – he has a decent eye at the plate, based on his 20 BB%, and doesn’t impact the ball very well, based on his sub-.100 ISO. There’s very limited video available here – and what I see is over a year old, so things may have been tweaked. He starts with an open stance, front toe on the ground, and bat on his shoulder. Then there’s a small leg kick and a load back with his hands that might be a little arm bar-ish. There’s not a lot of effort in his swing, and it doesn’t seem like he has any issues getting the ball in the air to the pull side. These are all definite positives, but the big takeaway should be that he’s 20 years old and has yet to make his stateside debut. He’s also squarely a 3B, albeit one that seems to move very well and can make the tough throws. I can’t say anything for his projection, but he won't be a quick mover through the system. If all goes well I can’t see a debut before age 24 and that, along with nothing resembling any trajectory at present, slides him well into Tier None. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3-5 Both

Esmith Pineda, 20, OF

Pineda is a smallish player with a long, odd swing. Making contact is his biggest obstacle at present - he whiffed on 35% of his swings last year. He is good at not expanding the zone, but man does it get ugly when he does swing at those pitches. There is room in his body to develop more strength and that should help, but to find a path to even the high minors I think he’ll need to shorten up his swing. And at that point, how much of his marginal power does he lose? To compound matters, he’s not overly athletic and confined to a corner OF spot, and not a major threat on the bases. Pineda is a non-prospect at this juncture, but as a former $800k signee he’ll be given another year or two to see if he can tap into the promise that got him that bonus back in 2022. We’re not going to hold him to any esteem in the hobby though. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2 Both

Cleveland Guardians

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Chase Mobley, 18, P

Don’t be fooled by the fact that he was taken in the 10th Round last year – Mobley is a big-time prep arm and was in discussions for the top 3 rounds entering the Draft. In fact, his $1.8 MM bonus is 2nd Round money, so let’s treat him as such. In some ways he reminds me of 2023 draftee Zander Mueth – a tall, lanky low-arm slot righty whose fastball has already been in the upper 90’s with lots of armside movement. Mobley loves to throw his fastball based on the video I watched, and it makes sense considering it should be a plus pitch once he gets strong enough to maintain velo (currently he generally works 92-94). He also throws a slurvy slider that’s not very good at present, as there’s not enough depth to it. We can trust the Guardians to help him develop that though. By my eyes his next best pitch is his split change – it’s a completely different movement profile compared to all that left-right movement with his fastball and slider. If he can learn to better command it, there’s clear above average potential with that pitch as well. As he’s only 18 until June and has some strength to gain before he can undertake a professional-level workload, it’s completely fair that he’ll start at the Complex this year. Mobley has as high of a ceiling as almost any prep in the 2024 Draft. It’s just how that breaking ball develops that will determine his ceiling. He should demand some fairly strong hobby interest, but he may not due to being a 10th Rounder and playing for the poor market that is the Guardians. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7 Both

Tier None

Luis Merejo, 18, 1B

The running theme here is going to be that Merejo is quite stiff and unathletic, even with only being 18 until June. Merejo signed as a 3B in 2023 for $340k, but has quickly slipped into a nearly entirely 1B profile. His speed on the bases is more playable but as he matures further he will also likely not be a threat out there. He put up good numbers in the Complex last year and earned his promotion to Low-A where the good numbers generally continued. But good numbers only tell so much of the story, and though there’s things to like, it’s not wholly positive. There is some significant power here in raw form – he’s incredibly strong already – but his swing is weird. He takes a quite narrow stride, and when he sets his foot post-stride his hip is already opened wide, with is upper body still torqued back. It supplies his power really well but it makes his swing very stiff and unable to attack well placed pitches. He makes up for it with very strong hand positioning and a solid feel for the barrel when he’s timed well, which has led to a lot of XBH and some solid ISO’s. He’s an aggressive hitter that swung frequently enough at Low-A to make up for a very low 65% contact rate. There’s no way this is going to sustain for the long term, right? He needs to change his swing to be a lot more fluid. But I think when he does, it will only add to his power. He has at least above-average game power potential. I just have no idea what his hit tool will look like should he get there. With him also being so low on the defensive spectrum, I’d rather not take the dart throw here. He's at the top of Tier None for me. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both

Alex Mooney, 22, SS

A 7th Round pick from Duke in 2023, Mooney was signed for an overslot $1 MM. It’s not because he has a high ceiling – it’s because was supposed to have the floor of at least reaching the high minors. Fast forward 20 months, and that’s proven true, as he’s now in AA. There’s nothing loud about anything he does though. His best tool is speed. It’s above average, and showed as such on the bases last year where he stole 43 bases in 49 attempts in High-A. I can’t see that many stolen bases in his future should he see a full run in the majors one day though. His hit tool is the biggest question mark. With his upright stance and high hand position you’d think he’s trying for power all the time, but he simply doesn’t have a ton of raw juice and whiffs quite a bit. He’s also on the aggressive side in the zone and out which affects his quality of contact. I wouldn’t say there’s any true red flags in his offensive profile, but there’s not much to get excited about either. He still plays SS but he’s no better than average there and has seen time at 3B and 2B as well. I think his future is indeed in that utility role. The Guardians seem to always have 3-4 players of Mooney’s ilk, and usually the best defender wins out for time with the big club. Mooney is no great defender. With Cleveland also being a poor hobby market, I can’t imagine there will be much interest in his cards at all. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3 Both

Matt Wilkinson, 22, P

The Tugboat sailed into our hearts in 2024 as a pop-up arm in one of the best pitching dev systems in baseball with the Guardians. A 10th round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft by Cleveland, Wilkinson was an off-the-radar JuCo Bandit that doesn’t look like your prototypical starting pitcher. At 6’1” and 270 pounds, there’s always going to be concerns that the body will not stand up to a full starter’s workload. He is a tough look for lower level hitters coming from a low release ¾ arm slot from the left side. That helps his high 80’s to low 90’s velocity play up, and a nice bit of arm side run makes it especially difficult for left-handed hitters. The star of his arsenal is the change-up, and how well it tunnels with the fastball. The drop off the table of that pitch gets plenty of whiffs as hitters expect to see the heater there. His third pitch is a slurvy slider that is fine, but didn’t seem to work anywhere near as well as the change-up. While 2024 was a bit of a dream season for Wilkinson with a 30% K-BB rate and sub-2 ERA across Single-A and High-A, the start to 2025 in High-A has been a bit rougher. Most of that is attributable to a 13% BB rate and a 1.73 WHIP so far. The strikeouts are still there, currently at 31%, but a pitcher with his fringe velocity is going to have to keep hitters off the bases to be successful. Without a velocity bump or some positive changes in the arsenal, it’s really hard to see Wilkinson being a regular in an MLB rotation. The love-able big guy with the great nickname will likely provide some short term Hobby notoriety on release, and possibly at times throughout his career when he is successful. However, this isn’t a profile that we should be spending our Hobby dollars on and I’d be selling any cards I end up with. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Both

Jackson Humphries, 20, P

An 8th Round pick back in 2022, Humphries signed for 3rd Round money – 800k. Tell me if you’ve heard this one from a Guardians pitcher before – the lefty really has a good feel for spin, featuring an excellent curve that’s always been there and a slider with a different movement profile at a similar speed. However, his velocity has never ticked up since he was drafted, and he still only works in the low 90’s despite his physique changing. He now looks quite muscular out there, but he’s not all that athletic, losing his balance on a semi-regular basis. That does indeed affect his command, as he’s registered double digit BB% each of his first two seasons. With my saying all these things, you can imagine that I don’t think he’s all that projectable. As a starter, yes – if he sticks he’ll be a back-end type. It’s more than likely he ends up as a lefty bullpen arm. But hey, the High-K upside is quite evident. When he’s on that curve is a thing of beauty and since that has to be respected the armside run on his fastball can really cause lefties fits. I’m not dropping Humphries into the “underrated Guardians pitcher” bucket – there’s too low of a floor for my liking. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Both

Esteban Gonzalez, 22, OF

One release with two Estebans (Mejia being the other) – not an everyday occurrence! The good thing is that they’re not similar players at all so we should be able to keep them straight. This Gonzalez is a speedy OF with some pretty terrible chase tendencies. Now, his numbers look fine. It hasn’t cost him much in terms of K% to date and his quality of contact has been decent, but there’s no way he’ll continue to get away swinging at 41% of balls outside the zone (26% was average at the Low-A level where he was for most of the year). And the speed isn’t really polished either – while he stole 41 bases last year, he was caught 13 times – not a marker of an elite threat out there. He was deployed mostly in the OF corners as well. It’s a profile that really seems quite limited. He has a little pop, but as he’s already 22 and only stands in at 5’8”, it’s really hard to call it fringe-average power. If there’s any semblance of hobby interest, I would be interested in selling into it. His path to the majors lies in some pretty massive improvements to his hit tool, and even then it’s likely as a reserve OF with a mid-20’s debut. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Both

Cameron Sullivan, 19, P

For the record, this is clearly not the fictional character from Season 2 of White Lotus who was meant to be quite…shall we say dislikable? (Theo James’ character). Instead, he was a 7th Round overslot signer in 2024 for 525k. Sullivan is a midwest prep with a long development track ahead of him. But he couldn’t have really landed in a better system than the Guardians to guide him through it, even though the progression won’t start for a while because of a partially torn UCL. Let’s ignore the injury for now. Sullivan’s best traits are that he already has a fastball that’s been in the upper 90’s, a very clear feel for how to spin the ball, and a strong 6’2”, 200 lbs body. It’s essentially the Guardians starter kit. His command isn’t good at all at present, and learning when and how to attack hitters will be paramount to determining how high his ceiling will get. Back to where we are now – the injury. He will almost certainly not see anything resembling a starter’s workload until 2027 with this being a spring injury. That hurts quite a lot hobby-wise, and I think it’s fair to just ignore him completely until he begins to ramp up to baseball activity. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Both

Jose Pirela, 19, OF

Not to be confused with the former Yankees/Padres outfielder who eventually went to Korea, this Jose Pirela doesn’t have projection that’ll carry him that far. He only recently turned 19, so there’s time, but posting a sub-.200 average with a 30+ K% at the Complex is not a good sign. Now, he does have power, but it’s almost entirely come through the use of the levers in his 6’3” frame – there’s not not much resembling a baseball swing that will have sustained success in him. He’s quite bad at using his lower half. Entirely reliant on the whip he’s able to create with his hands alone, it’s all pull-side damage, but more frequently it results in poor quality of contact (it was a .242 BABIP last year with a 53% pull rate). Pirela was deployed mostly to centerfield and he has projectable speed, but he’s still underdeveloped - he has not attempted many SB in his first few years. To me, with Pirela it’s not just rawness – it’s the swing itself that’s not very good. He’s going to have to transform himself into something else in order to proceed through the minors. Without any tools I’d definitely call loud, he’s squarely a no-go for me. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3 Both

Colorado Rockies

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Charlie Condon, 22, OF/3B

For me, this is the most divisive prospect in 2025 Bowman. Neither Max nor I included him in our 2025 Preseason Bowman Wishlist choices, and there was more than one comment calling that out (it was “our” wishlist, not the Hobby at large’s wishlist, just to clear that up for anyone that did comment). The third overall pick by the Rockies  in the 2024 MLB Draft could not have had a worse start to his pro career. In 25 games post-draft, Condon had a 40 wRC+ (100 is average) with a .180 batting average, a 4% walk rate, and a 31% strikeout rate. Small sample size caveats apply, but he looked bad, especially against anything other than a heater. The book got out on him early, and in the video looks, it was a steady diet of soft stuff for him. The power is plus to double plus - at 6’6” and around 210 pounds, Condon has the levers and physicality to push the ball over the fence to any field. Even with the college advantages of small fields and metal bats (and perhaps some funny business), it’s still notable that he led Division 1 in 2024 with 37 home runs. At the moment, he surprisingly can get around the basepaths and steal some bases, but I don’t see that being a long term feature of his game. Defensively, he’s an awkward fit at third base as well as the outfield, but probably lands in some sort of LF/1B/DH type of role at the end of the day. If he’s able to make third base work, which I question, there’s more of a path to an MLB roster spot, but as it stands, the contact issues are going to make those defensive homes harder to compete for. A final note is that we have yet to see Condon in 2025 due to a wrist fracture suffered in Spring Training. The expectation is that we will see him sometime in May, and he should absolutely be at the top of the watchlist once we do get a larger sample of at bats. The draft and prospect pedigree is significant, along with the power. That gives him a floor, at least for now, of a Tier 3 ranking. If Condon was sat down after the draft rather than given at bats in High-A, he would have easily been a Tier 2 player based on his pedigree and college results, with Tier 1 consideration. The fact that he was exposed so quickly reinforces the whispered and real doubts that we had coming into the draft. That has me looking at the glass half empty rather than half full and pushing him down into Tier 3, but still recognizing that his Ceiling is at least Tier 2-worthy. I had so much to say I almost forgot to mention that another concern is the org - Colorado has simply not shown a propensity for churning out good hitting prospects or fixing prospects with hit tool issues. I’m out on him from a Hobby perspective, and I'm somewhat planting a flag here by ranking Condon this low, but I completely understand those that will be in on him and I could easily look foolish with this take. This is the quintessential high risk, high reward type of play. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier None

Ashly Andujar, 17, SS

The Rockies’ top signee in January 2024 from the Dominican Republic, Andujar’s $1.7 MM bonus was based on the hope he would be a long-term SS with a solid hit tool. He also barely made the age cutoff – he turns 18 on July 29. He’s very skinny at present – he’s listed at 6’1” 163 lbs, but looks even longer than that (he could’ve grown, or it could just be his lithe frame lending itself to the slender man appearance). He has zero issue being effective in the DSL though. His hit tool looked quite for his age. There is some rawness to his swing decisions that leaves him in unfavorable counts, but he has a really good ability to make contact. I think that’s the most important takeaway right now. He doesn’t hit the ball hard at all or really have a good feeling for anything resembling power. But he has a long way to go with physical development. He has some technical tweaks to make as well. He doesn’t stay firm on his front side well at all, almost pivoting his front foot with his back back foot. His hands also fire too early, especially considering he starts with them in a low position. Despite having plus speed, he’s also not yet a great base stealer – he was only successful on 17 of 25 attempts. He committed 14 errors at SS in 45 games. Andujar is, simply put, more raw than his surface level numbers in the DSL indicate. Strength will cure some of it, but there’s a lot of work to be done from a baseball skills perspective as well. The tool kit is there. There’s just too many ways his development can go for me to be interested hobby-wise, with his power remaining near zero being the primary concern. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both

Konner Eaton, 22, P

Well yeesh, this just seems like a horrible idea. Eaton is a 6’3” southpaw from George Mason who was taken in the 6th Round. While he has height, he has narrow-set shoulders that limit his projectability to whatever athleticism he’s showing on the mound at present. The good thing is that he is good athlete out there, so there’s a little something. His command and consistency is completely sub-par now, but the hope is that, in time, his athleticism will help his mechanics. In my views I saw a fastball that he worked with in the low-90’s, a sweeping slider he used more to against lefties, and a change he threw almost exclusively to righties. He left way too many of these pitches over the plate, and he got hit fairly hard. The strikeout numbers at GMU were good because he has an idea of how to attack hitters – it’s just the execution that’s lacking. He was deployed to High-A to begin his pro career this year. I don’t get a great feeling about Rockies pitchers to begin with. But Rockies pitchers who don’t have a plus pitch and also lack command such as Eaton are just so easy to not walk, but run far away from in the hobby context. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Base Only

Detroit Tigers

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

Kevin McGonigle, 20, SS

A prep draftee who was the 37th overall pick in 2023 and has already touched High-A, I’m not the best person to wax poetic on the virtues of McGonigle. Because he’s treated like a Top 25 prospect through the hobby lens, I’m not a huge fan (this is ONLY the hobby context!) To me, I don’t see how he gets to enough power to deserve that. Maybe it’s a 20 HR ceiling? That’s the most optimistic of outcomes, and I don’t think many would push back on that. His defense is also merely average and quite likely to land him at 2B at maturity. His speed is definitely a weapon on the bases and he’s a smart runner, but getting to much more than 30 SB would be a tall order. As you can see I’ve already built out a realistic 15 HR / 25 SB projection for a guy who’s only 20 – pretty nice. I also haven’t talked about what’s by far his best tool – hit. He was age-appropriate for Low-A where he was for most of last season, so these numbers are projectable in any model you put it into. He ran a 99th percentile K%, 99th percentile zone contact, and 100th percentile O-Contact with an above average chase rate. Those are markers of a player who’s hit tool might just be Special (that’s a capital S there if you didn’t get the point). His results backed up the data as well as he totaled a .309/.401/.452 slash. What I see when I watch him hit is a guy who’s loose and strong at the plate, and who clearly has an excellent feel for the barrel. The one thing slowing McGonigle down is injury. He had two IL stints last year – a broken hand and a hamstring strain – and also hurt his ankle this year and has missed nearly a month. There’s no long term concerns with these, but they are starting to get in the way of his ascent. Again, I imagine him as a top 6 name in this product – I would be a seller if I ended up with any pieces. Not because I’m not a believer that this isn’t a future All-Star or batting title winner, but because the hype outstrips every player in the hobby that hasn’t hit 25+ HR, or projects to do so. But I will move his risk lower than I have for any player that hasn’t been to AA. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7

Josue Briceño, 20, 1B/C

Part of my honorable mentions section of our 2025 Preseason Bowman Wishlist, Briceño was the 2024 AFL Triple Crown winner. A knee sprain limited his first full-season ball attempt to just 40 games, so sending him to the AFL was an obvious choice. In a hitter friendly environment, you want to discount hitter success (and pitcher failure), but you still have to give some sort of weight to being the best hitter in any situation. That AFL performance gave the Tigers confidence to send Briceño to High-A for the first time to start 2025, and while the strikeouts have been somewhat elevated given what he’s done in the past, it’s not any sort of worry as it’s still better than league average as of writing (23%/58th percentile). The power is the real point of interest as it’s easily plus. At 6’4” and 200 pounds, he has the body right now to hit 20+ home runs in the minors and add good muscle mass to aim for 30+ home runs at maturity. At just 20 years old, he already looks physically mature in a good way, at least in the box. Behind the plate is another story. I was assuming after the knee injury the Tigers would limit Briceño to just first base and designated hitter, but they continue to run him out there with the mask on every couple of days. He has the arm to stick as a catcher and that’s about it. He drops too many balls, isn’t athletic enough to pop out of his crouch, and as games wear on, his one legged stance gets noticeably deeper as he tires. The defensive home is the only short term question right now as, at least for the moment, he has put to rest the heavy ground ball concerns that cropped up in 2024. A plus power bat with an above average hit tool is something the Hobby should be paying for. With defensive questions, no speed, and a lack of consistent playing time to have a significant sample size at any level yet, it keeps Briceño from having a higher ranking for now. There is Tier 1 upside if everything clicks, similar to how we’ve recently viewed Samuel Basallo. For now, I’ll rank him in Tier 2 and take any discounts on his cards I can get. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier 3

Franyerber Montilla, 20, 2B/SS

Montilla was a $500k J15 signing back in 2022. While he repeated the DSL in 2023, it’s been trending positively since. The tools aren’t super-loud, but there’s the bones of a very nice player here. Montilla is a switch-hitting middle infielder who’s always shown a good approach at the plate. Don’t get it wrong, there’s quite a bit of swing-and-miss, which made him look quite bad last year in his brief taste of Low-A. But as far as pitch selection, taking his walks, and knowing what to do with his swings, he’s above average for his age. He just has to level up his execution. There’s a bit of pop as well – it was a nice .176 ISO at the Complex (again, he was not up to the task at Low-A). His speed is at least above-average. While he’s a bit raw in his base-stealing acumen, it’s definitely his best asset at present and it’s likely to remain so. There’s hope that both his hit and power end up as average assets with maturity, and as his body has plenty of room to add strength, I don’t think it’s a stretch for him to get there. We’re in flyer territory with Montilla, but I’d be willing to take that chance so I’ll bump him to the back of Tier 3. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Jack Penney, 22, INF

Taken in the 5th Round form Notre Dame last year, Penney is an under-the-radar defense-first utility type. I don’t know if he’s a SS long-term because his range isn’t fantastic. But in terms of my eyes watching him being quick, smooth, and decisive with his infield actions and playing with high-energy, there’s no doubt that he’s a Ballplayer. His offensive tools are….shall we say lackluster? He only attempted 22 SB in his three years in College despite possessing average speed – I don’t know if that’s something that may tick up this year playing in High-A, but there would need to be a mental switch to call him a threat out there. At the plate he doesn’t have much raw juice at all. He keeps his front leg inverted after his stride to keep as much coil as possible – it makes his swing mechanism very long, even though he sets with his hands low and his bat path is short. He does make up for it with a good approach though, and there’s a hope that his hit tool in total could tick up to average in time. His raw power is so poor that quality of contact has been an issue – he totaled only a .261 average in his three years at Notre Dame, but there was some better success on the Cape so it’s possible that his game power outstrips his raw. Penney is not a strong hobby name at all, but will provide value to the organization defensively and should be doing so in the high minors sooner rather than later. If he starts performing with the bat in that scenario, we could be looking at a quick riser to a MLB bench role – but that’s where his ceiling likely is. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both

Houston Astros

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Walker Janek, 22, C

Janek was the first catcher taken in the Draft at 28th overall, and as far as surefire catchers go he’s #1 for the hobby from the draft pretty easily too. The Sam Houston State product really broke through in 2024 where he won the Buster Posey Award (top NCAA catcher). Conference USA isn’t the toughest of competition, but he slugged .709 with a sub-18 K%. He has a crouched, athletic stance at the plate where he’s up there looking to do damage to the pull side with every swing. It’s an easy setup that generates good bat speed, and he gets to much of his raw power with relative ease. He even had a successful 2023 Cape Cod season where he hit 5 HR and slugged .474. I’m buttering the offensive potential up here because his debut (103 PA) at High-A was not good. Every single flaw in his approach was exposed - he chased over 45% of the time (1st percentile) and was just average at making contact overall – it was a 17.7% SwStr with poor batted ball results to boot. Now, this isn’t completely unexpected. Janek is an aggressive hitter. It just can’t be to a fault like it was in his debut, and I don’t think it will be. It just ticks up his risk in my eyes. Defensively, overall he’s an above average asset that’s buoyed by his arm, which plays as the best catcher arm in the Draft. He’s not a plodder on the basepaths, but also not likely a SB threat. There is the realistic floor of an MLB backup with Janek, and quite a bit of ceiling with his power – it’s likely over 20 HR potential. He just needs to develop more discipline, and perhaps swing a little less often as he moves to a full season of High-A. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Jancel Villarroel, 20, UTIL

Though he’s mainly been deployed as a catcher for the past few seasons, Villaroel is quite athletic and this year has already been moved all around both the infield and outfield in search of a new home. He was never a perfect fit behind the dish at just 5’8”. There’s a real shot he can stick as a 2B or LF – though his speed is not a strong asset, he can likely retain enough mobility to play those positions (and catch in a pinch!). Though he was bumped up to Single-A for a considerable portion of the season, he showed himself to be quite raw for the level, chasing too much as well as posting poor zone contact numbers. However, he still didn’t look completely overmatched because he has an excellent feel for the barrel. He does it with a hand-heavy short, quick stroke that generates a lot of line dives. There’s not consistent involvement with his back hip though, so it feels a bit punch-and-judy at times. I have my doubts whether he ever really flirts with double-digit HR, even if his hit tool takes the sizable leap (which it might) to above average. So, without any true carrying tools, this is a player I’m not at all interested in for the hobby. I think that will be the consensus. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Both

Anderson Brito, 20, P

Starting pitchers under, 6’2”-ish, let alone pitchers under 6 feet, like Brito at 5’10”, are almost always prospects I let others speculate on. On the other hand, Brito has really good strikeout stuff with a plus fastball, and a developing four pitch arsenal. Not to mention he’s in an org that consistently elevates their pitching prospects above expectations. Unfortunately his first two starts of the season were not streamed, and his third start was at Rome with terrible camera angles. And maybe that’s for the best, as he got touched up pretty good by the Braves High-A roster. The first two starts of the season, on the other hand, produced impressive results with 12 strikeouts and zero runs through just under 8 innings combined across those two starts. That sort of tracks with his 2024 results, which were full of strikeouts and not many runs given up. However, he’s probably going to start facing more advanced hitters who are more patient, not as vulnerable to his one plus pitch, the fastball (which gets tons of swing and miss), and can wait on him to physically tire out the more innings he throws (he’s never thrown 5 innings in a single game). The slider at times can flash, but the curveball and changeup still have quite a ways to go. There is an element of high risk, high reward at play here where he beats the odds and ends up a mid-rotation starter, but I’m betting it ends in some sort of relief role at the end of the day. Add in that he has no autos in the product and the immortal words of Mark Cuban come to mind, “And for that reason, I’m out”. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Base Only

Kansas City Royals

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Jhonayker Ugarte, 18, 3B

A big-bonus signer in the 2023 J15 period for $1.3 MM, Ugarte went out to the DSL and took a solid first step in proving he was worth it. He employed a very mature approach for a 17-year old (16.4 BB%), and his simple set-up at the plate with just a toe tap and tendency to not swing out his shoes (plenty of DSL players do) leads me to believe that his hit tool could play as above average when he hits the Complex this year. I don’t want to go crazy with his hit tool projection long-term because that’s not supposed to be his best tool, and it’s possible he was just taking what DSL pitchers were giving him. His best tool is supposed to be power. While he only hit one HR in the DSL there’s little doubt that it’s coming. From my very limited look at his swing, there’s plenty of bat speed, and it’s playing in game – he ran an impressive .384 BABIP last year. He’s not physically mature in his upper half at all, and when that hits I would expect him to truly come into what should be above-average or better power. His lower half has already thickened a little, and he’s not fleet of foot. Perfectly fine for a 3B. Hobby-wise there’s not a lot to dislike with Ugarte right now. His best attribute is the one we care the most about, and he’s not really showing it yet, so there may be a buying opportunity. I’d recommend getting in now, right at release, before he goes out and dominates the Complex. He's Tier 3 for now, but that may soon change. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6-8 Both

Asbel Gonzalez, 19, OF

One of the more under the radar prospects in the product, Gonzalez is a name I expect to be hearing more and more about as he continues to use his plus speed to rack up stolen bases. As of writing, he has 25 stolen bases in 20 games - that puts him on pace for 300 stolen bases if my math is correct (it is not). That buzz likely creates some helium for his cards with the obvious comparison people will make with 2024 minor league stolen base leader Chandler Simpson. The hit tool shows promise - he’s got a good approach, not swinging at pitches out of the zone nor whiffing much at all in the video I watched. In the small sample so far at Single-A in 2025, he’s got a roughly average contact rate at 79% and just above average overall swing rate at 54%. The ground ball rate is a bit high at 47%, but he’s pairing that with a nice, well above average 30% line drive rate. Defensively, he should have no problem sticking in center field. Leaving the biggest issue for last in the discussion, his present power is non-existent. At the moment, he’s listed at a lithe 6’2” 170 pounds. The question is will he put on muscle, or will he focus on remaining on the thinner side to maintain his speed and athleticism. It looks like he’s got a frame that could add good muscle, and thus add enough power to be average in that department. In all likelihood, he remains a single-digit home run profile that hits for a decent average driven by BABIP and OBP with the real calling cards being stolen bases and center field defense. There’s a potential everyday player here even without the power, but that caps his Ceiling. If he ever starts putting up unexpected above average or better power numbers, watch out, because there’s a potential dynamic player breakout on the horizon. However, there’s also fifth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner risk in equal weighting. If his cards are cheap, I wouldn’t mind picking up a few, but sadly it’s only base cards in this release. Hopefully he gets 1st Bowman autos in 2025 Bowman Chrome.  Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Base Only

Blake Wolters, 20, SP

An overslot prep righty that the Royals gave almost $1M extra above his round 2 value in 2023, Wolters looks the part of a future mid-rotation starter. At 6’4” and 210-215 pounds, the SP frame checkbox is ticked. Another box gets checked with a mid 90’s fastball. And yet another one with a swing and miss secondary which is a low 80’s, vertical breaking slider that he can also locate for strikes. And that’s about where the boxes stop being checked. His third pitch, needed to round out the starter’s arsenal, is a high-80’s change-up that still has a long way to go. He doesn’t look confident throwing it, misses his spots, and doesn’t throw it often. The fastball was not missing bats and gave up way too much solid contact. The command is another concern with a 10% BB rate in just over 55 innings in 2024, and an unsightly 21% so far in a small sample of 2025. If I saw a high volume of strikeouts, I might be willing to forgive some of those concerns a bit more. If he was in one of the top pitching dev orgs, I also might be willing to preach a bit more patience. Not to say we shouldn’t have patience as he’s just 20 years old and has yet to pitch 100 professional innings. But for someone I had a higher opinion of going into this review based on name value and draft pedigree, what I saw in the numbers and on the tape had me significantly lowering that opinion. The Ceiling of a mid-rotation SP is still there, but it’s a lot harder to see, and sort of out of nowhere, at least for me, bullpen risk is now part of the conversation. We can find other places to put our Hobby dollar for now until Wolters can check off some more boxes, especially when he doesn’t have any autographs in the product. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Base Only

Tier None

Javier Vaz, 22, 2B

Taken in the 15th Round from Vanderbilt in 2022, Vaz has done nothing but perform very well as a pro. He has extremely good contact skills – this is a guy who hasn’t yet run a SwStr% over 5 at any level, including 2024 at AA. He also walked more than he struck out last year, and it’s no fluke – the discipline markers (96th% O-Swing) back up that OBP should be a strong element of his game moving forward. As you can imagine it’s a very contact oriented swing designed to throw the barrel out front as quick as possible, and at 5’7” with short levers, it works very well. It costs him pretty much all his power, but when he catches a barrel well enough to the pull side, there will be a few homers to be had. Though he played a good deal of LF earlier in his MiLB career, he’s now shifted most of his playing time to 2B as his defensive profile there has ticked up to above average. He has at least above average speed but he’s not very aggressive on the bases – even if he starts running more it’s not likely to be a high SB ceiling. He is hurt at present with a pair of broken fingers, but there’s not much doubt he’ll slip back into the mix in the high minors where he’ll continue to try to prove he’s valuable enough to earn a 40-man roster spot by the end of the year. To me he profiles as a bench piece, but one that will get some run as a starter as a bottom-of-the-order type. He’s not a strong name for the hobby, but there’s also not a lot of risk in his not making it to that role. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 4 Chrome Auto Only

Hyunchan Um, 21, C

Um was an interesting signing – he inked his deal in July 2022 after completing High School in South Korea, a few months before he would’ve been a high pick in the KBO Draft. It’s not at all apples to apples to compare him to stateside preps from 2022 though – there’s no way we should be expecting his development to be as fast or advanced as someone taken in the first few rounds. But if we look at only prep catchers, as Um is, there starts to be some favorable comparisons. Who’s the best of Um, Lamar King, and Brooks Brannon, for instance, is a fair question. Of course, hobby wise neither of those other two guys are high on anyone’s wishlist – catching is hard! I would expect the same to hold true for Um. He’s making strides every year with his defense, improving his blocking and receiving, and getting notably better with his throwing. That part of his game has a projection of being average now. Starting with his hands low and keeping them there in a statuesque pose as he takes his big leg kick, Um has quite the uppercut swing. He’s shown decent power with it, totaling 8 HR and 20 XBH last year. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but when we’re considering how raw he is – it’s not bad. Where he does need to improve is with his contact rate and chase rate. It’s not so easy to tick up a lot in those areas, but he’ll really need to in order to improve his prospect stock to make any sort of mark in the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both

Los Angeles Angels

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

George Klassen, 23, P

The Angels on rare occasions make good moves, and trading a reliever for two very interesting and useful prospect arms at the 2024 trade deadline qualifies for that. Carlos Estevez was sent to the Phillies in exchange for George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri. Interestingly, the profiles are pretty far apart on the spectrum of pitching prospects with these two arms - Klassen is a high octane mid-rotation potential arm whose command, or lack thereof, will dictate if he stays in a rotation or ends up at the back of the bullpen. Aldegheri is a pitchability lefty that doesn’t wow you, but does everything well enough to find a long career at the backend of major league rotations. Klassen, when he’s on and coming even close to locating his pitches, is near unhittable with his fastball and curveball combination. The fastball is in the high 90’s and touches triple digits. Up, down, in the zone, it doesn’t really matter, hitters have a really hard time hitting putting wood on it. The curveball has now joined the fastball as a plus pitch in Klassen’s arsenal. Freezing hitters in the zone, getting swings and misses as it falls out of the zone - it’s simply a reliable and effective pitch, when in the past it had not been. A cutter and a changeup complete the arsenal, but I rarely saw him throw either - it seemed like the cutter was the preferred third pitch in the video I watched of his 2025 outings. That third reliable pitch will likely be the final step in his development towards getting an MLB debut and sticking there. That’s assuming his command gains continue to be real as he’s maintained his 30%+ K rate, while dropping his walk rate all the way down to 5% in 2025. I expect regression will kick it up into the 8% - 10% range, but he hasn’t had more than two walks in any outing this year. As long as he can keep the K rate under 10%, this is a mid-rotation SP with big time strikeout capabilities. The Ceiling is tantalizing, and Klassen so far is showing that he may be closer to reaching it than not. If his cards are cheap enough, I’m willing to take the risk. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier 3

Hayden Alvarez, 18, OF

Joswa Lugo was the Angels top IFA in 2024 and played very well in the DSL, but Alvarez showed he’s not far behind, if at all. He’s certainly more polished at this stage. He’s very projectable a 6’3” and it’s easy to see him growing into a 5-tool skillset in a few years. The power isn’t there yet, but there’s plenty of time to add strength and he’s already showing an ability to go to all fields. He sets up with his hands high but his swing isn’t overly long – it’s a very simple stroke, and he doesn’t often use extraordinary effort. I think power will come quite easily with this setup in time. He also has a patient approach at the plate, which I love to see with young players – he let the game come to him, which resulted in a very nice K:BB ratio. His above average speed plays as such both in CF and on the bases, where he stole 32 bags last year. I’m not at all concerned by the fact he only hit .250 in the DSL – he just didn’t have quite enough strength (considering his longer levers) to find enough barrels to register hits. Unless we hear he’s gained some significant muscle heading into the Complex season, I would expect the lower average to continue. Some may say that means he’s a project, but I think it’s a buying opportunity. I think as soon as grows into man-muscles, we’ll see his performance take off in a major way that will make him a big name in prospect hobby circles. If we’re calling him an under-the-radar name, I’m 1000% in. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6-8 Both

Tier None

Cole Fontenelle, 23, 3B

A college teammate of Brayden Taylor at TCU, Fontenelle was taken in the 7th Round of the 2023 Draft. Unlike Taylor, his star is not shining very bright at present. His 2024 season started very well at AA, hitting for a decent average with a high OBP and showing a bit of pop. However, he suffered a grisly leg injury in early May that knocked him out until the AFL, and he hasn’t looked the same since. He posted a 36 K% with only 2 XBH in 20 AFL games – it’s fine to attribute that to rust. But what I can’t continue to attribute to rust is how he’s started the 2025 season. He struck out 23 times in his first nine games, including a stretch of 17 K in 20 PA’s. It’s not important to view this start at face value, but it does make it very, very apparent that swing-and-miss, long the biggest fear in his profile, is going to be an issue. He does possess a nice corner-infielder’s frame at 6’3”, 220, and enough raw power to play either of the two positions. Early in counts he uses a big leg kick that’s toned down with two strikes, but to me the more striking thing is his hands. He starts high, drops them down a little, then pulls back up and back to coil. It makes his swing both long and inconsistent in it’s timing to the ball. Fontenelle doesn’t have a long pro track record, but he has shown some semblance of an approach – he’s not a wild swinger up there, so that could deodorize some of the swing-and-miss. But nothing’s going to be able to hide a 50+ K% like he’s run to begin 2025 – he simply has to figure out the timing issues so he can get to some of the above average power he’s supposed to have. Otherwise, his later-round pedigree will be an easy way to de-prioritize his playing time come July. Hobby wise, we shouldn’t ever ignore power potential, and Fontenelle has it. But man is there just a ton of risk in his becoming nothing. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Both

Kevyn Castillo, 19, OF

He only signed for 10k in 2022 so it’s absolutely not surprising that Castillo was asked to repeat the DSL in 2023, and he responded by posting a fantastic season where he made the DSL All-Star team, hit .371, and walked more than he struck out. Queue the Angels doing Angels things and forcing players to higher levels. Castillo never saw the Complex, going straight to Low-A. Surprisingly it worked, and he posted a positive wRC+, albeit with a fairly high K%. Castillo has a stroke that should lead to a lot of hard contact, with it’s flat swing plane, but he’s not quite as adept engaging his back side with regularity just yet. When he does he can really get into some power, which is nice because I think he’ll need it. His body has already begun to trend in the wrong direction. Listed at 5’10” 170, he must be at least 190 at this juncture, and not in a good way. He’s slowed down in his base-stealing, and is now largely playing corner OF. Only being 19, he can still turn his conditioning around of course. In my eyes, I think he’ll need it to get a better gauge on who he can be moving forward. Right now he’s not a dart throw I’ll be willing to take hobby-wise. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both

Peyton Olejnik, 22, P

Drafted in the 6th Round, Olejnik is most notable for his size. He’s 6’11”. Weighing in at just 210 lbs though, there's not a lot of physicality to his presence on the mound. It’s a tale as old as time – tall pitcher, low arm slot, cause young hitters fits with the angles he comes at you with. After beginning his Collegiate career in Oklahoma he transferred to Miami University (OH) where he found work as a starter. It was an OK Junior season for him, but as many of his height command issues were at the fore. So, he then went to the MLB Draft League where he didn’t exactly answer command questions, but all the eyes seeing his ability to miss bats with ease boosted his stock. He only works in the low 90’s at present with his fastball, with fairly average traits. His slider in the low-80’s isn’t big from a movement profile but it’s a short and sharp breaker – unlocking consistency with it may lead to an above average pitch. He also throws a change-up that’s fairly firm in movement, but he gets away with it because of those angles. It’s really all about those angles with Olejnik. His profile is one that has worked it’s way into being a back-end MLB starter in the past. He just has a long way to go with his command to ensure that he gets there. A retail paper-only autograph subject in this release, I think he’s fairly easy to just not chase. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3 Paper Auto Only

Lucas Ramirez, 19, OF

Even though he was just a 17th Round pick in last year’s Draft, signing for $150k, of the (4) ballplayer kids in this product (D’Angelo Ortiz, David Ortiz Jr, Jadyn Fielder), it’s pretty clear to me that Ramirez (Manny’s son) has the most hobby upside. That’s not to say he’s close to escaping Tier None. He’ll be a major development project for the Angels, but one with a decent toolkit to start. He’s a wide-shouldered 6’3” with lots of room to grow in both his upper and lower body. He’s a bit underdeveloped physically really, but already flashed above average run times at showcase events. He projects for significantly more strength at maturity, but how he translates that to baseball remains to be seen. He doesn’t use much of his present strength at the plate. He’s a contact-oriented swinger that prioritizes staying on plane, selling out for contact to all fields and sacrificing power. He doesn’t use his lower half well at all. There’s a load of maturation left to take place with Ramirez both physically and baseball skill-wise. That’s the most interesting thing to me. He looks like he loves the game in the same way his dad did. I have faith that he’ll be able to make something out of himself, but what will it be? It’s a complete dart throw. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Both

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

Eduardo Quintero, 19, OF

I don’t know how the Dodgers keep doing this. Well, I do…excellent scouting. But they signed Quintero for under 300k in the 2023 J15 period, and he’s done nothing but look like a future Top 100 prospect since. He’s not there yet though – he has to prove he can actually impact the ball stateside, as evidenced by just a .108 ISO last year. After tearing up the DSL in 2023, last year at the age-appropriate Complex he was still quite impressive – a .285/.419/.394 slash with 29 SB in 56 games while playing a solid CF. That math works out to a 17.6 BB%, and there isn’t much swing-and-miss that comes with that. When he went to Low-A for 27 games, his lithe frame got the best of him which affected quality of contact, but his excellent approach remained. This spring, he looks to have gained significant muscle in his upper half. It’s a really interesting development and a boost to his raw expectations – now we get to exactly how he’ll implement the new strength in-game. I don’t think anyone is really sleeping on Quintero at this juncture, and if his physique now leads to power, lookout – he could easily jump to being a Top 5 name in this product. There’s certainly already at least a 4-tool foundation (his arm is also excellent). In the Dodgers market he may already be very pricey at release, but as long as we’ve not looking at a “future superstar” type of barrier to acquire, he may be worth it. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier 3

None

Tier None

Hyun-Seok Jang, 21, P

Jang signed with the Dodgers after he completed high school for $900k, ahead of being drafted in the 2023 KBO Draft where he would have been one of the first few picks. When one looks at his presence on the mound, it’s easy to see why. He’s currently a well built 6’4” with room to add strength in his lower half – durability wouldn’t be an issue. Notice the phrasing there, and that’s because he hasn’t yet shown enough command to build into any sort of workload. That’s fine, he’s still only currently the age of a collegiate Sophomore, but man is there a long way to go. He made his in-game debut last year at the Complex and moved up to Single-A, but the BB% stood at 16%. However, he was not particularly hittable either. He allowed just a .163 average, and struck out a fantastic 41% of hitters. He has the look of a classic power pitcher – riding fastball in the mid-90’s with a power slider – both could end up as plus pitches. He also has a beautiful slow curve that seems easy to pick up out of his hand, and a change that’s not commanded well, but both of these could end up average or better. There is definite potential here despite the surface numbers. Ignore the high ERA’s. That comes with the command issues. We know about that. All he needs to do is tick up with command in the next few years, and boom, mid-rotation or better potential. But it will likely take all of a few years to get there, so I think it’s completely fair to de-value him at present in case the improvements never come. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5 Both

Chris Campos, 24, P

Campos was a 7th Round pick back in 2022 from St. Mary’s. His 5’10” frame without significant physicality screams future reliever to me, and in 2023 he was indeed more multi-inning out-getter than true starter. However, last year he surprisingly handled a much more significant workload – 9 of his 25 outings went 5 innings or more. He’s also already tacked on two more this year. This is just to say – there’s a chance he makes it as a swingman. Does that really matter for the hobby, especially consider he’s only a retail paper auto? Probably not. He has a four pitch mix, with his fastball probably the worst among them because it has only average velocity and not-great shape. He uses it only to set up his other offerings – a variable curve/slider that blend into each other with intent, and a changeup that’s perhaps a bit firm, but moves in a different direction. He’s definitely aware of his weaknesses and really knows how to attack hitters. He’s also had his command tick up significantly in the last year, which now stands as at least above average. But I already explained where his ceiling is, and it’s not one that figures to be significant for the hobby, even if he gets traded to a team that gives him a full run in a starting role. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3 Paper Auto Only

Jakob Wright, 21, P

The Dodgers 4th Round pick last year from Cal Poly, Wright is a lefty with a single plus pitch. But man is it ever plus. The first time I saw his sweeping slider from a centerfield camera I let out an audible “whoo”. Not something I do often. It’s pitch that’s very clearly already MLB quality, but what else does he need to get there? Well, let’s walk it back to his 6`0”, 170 lb physique that doesn’t exactly lend itself to durability. In fact, his Junior year was his only one where he took on a starters’ workload in college, and he’s already had TJ surgery. So there’s a ton of reliever risk from the jump. His fastball is one with some armside run, and his change is further behind in development but has some promise. Like most pitchers who have big sweepers, he offers a cutter to keep hitters honest as well. But all of these pitches have below average velocity and the intention of playing off the slider. He really sounds like a nice bullpen piece to me, but for now he’s being deployed as a starter (at Single-A). It’s a narrow path to hobby relevance, but a wide path to getting to the majors. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3 Base Only

Jesus Tillero, 19, P

In the hobby, we generally don’t like international prospects who haven’t yet made their full-season debut, because the DSL is a terrible gauge, and innings are usually very limited in the Complex. We like starters, and those determinations just aren’t made yet with these guys. Tillero has only thrown 21 innings of stateside ball, all last year in the ACL. Even though he was a significant 500k signee in the 2023 IFA period, I cannot imagine him getting a ton of hobby interest at this juncture – he is not assigned to Single-A this year yet because his command is still too raw – he walked 14 batters in those 21 innings. He stands on the mound at only 6’0” but there’s a nice frame to work with and plenty of strength left to be added. He also already works in the mid-90’s with his fastball, a pitch that has some good shape. His change, at its best, is pretty wicked and could be a real difference maker, but it’s not consistent. His slider, similarly, is not consistent. His delivery also isn’t consistent. You see the theme here, right? I completely see why he’s still in the Complex. There are some things to like here, but it could very well be a relief-only profile in short order. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5 Both

Victor Rodrigues, 20, C

The Dodgers have a lot of dynamic players in their system - Rodrigues just isn’t one of them, but there are positives. His strike zone knowledge is fantastic – if he can translate that to his hit tool it would go a long way toward his projection. However, he’s very, very aggressive on pitches in the zone, and quite bad at making contact with those pitches. (I never would have thought that looking at his Complex numbers last year!) His setup is simple enough but he doesn’t trust his natural strength. There’s a lot of weak contact – he disengages his lower half frequently, losing balance and just relying on the timing of his hands to the ball. To put a point on all this, he had just 5 XBH in 153 AB’s last year across the Complex and Low-A. Behind the plate he is improving – there’s hope he can stick back there at this juncture, but he also has some experience at 1B. Altogether Rodrigues is not a strong name for this product and it’s not likely he’ll ever be better than below-average for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2 Both

Miami Marlins

Tier 1

Thomas White, 20, P

Second best lefty pitching prospect in baseball behind Noah Schultz, and I think White’s floor is higher, even if his Ceiling is not. But that’s not to say Thomas White’s Ceiling isn’t an ace, it's just not a Randy Johnson style ace, but more of a lefty Roger Clemens type of ace. White has that SP1 Ceiling because he has three swing and miss, plus pitches already at just 20 years old. A four seam fastball in the mid 90’s that he’ll easily get up to 97-98, a mid-to-high 80’s changeup that tunnels very well off of the fastball, and a low 80’s breaker that probably is on the slider side of a slurve. He’s reportedly added a cutter as well this off-season, although I didn’t see him throw it in a game yet. The strikeout rate is evidence of that swing and miss stuff, as he’s consistently living in the 28% - 30% strikeout range. The only real negative is the inconsistent command. The walk rate can get elevated at times, drifting into the double digit percentages. When his command wavers, the fastball will miss to the arm side and up, while the breaker and off-speed will land center cut down the middle. This is easily the best long-term pitching prospect in this product and there was a reason I had him in my top 5 prospects for my 2025 Preseason Bowman Wishlist. A starter’s build at 6’5” and 240 pounds, a high octane strikeout arsenal, and Marlins pitching dev all have me very optimistic about White’s future potential. I’ve tried to be more conservative as time has gone on with handing out Tier 1 ranks, especially to pitchers, but White deserves it in my opinion. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 9 Both

Tier 2

PJ Morlando, 19, OF

Morlando was one of the more well-known prep bats over the past few years in discussions about the 2024 MLB Draft. Long considered a future first round pick, he wowed with his power and had very few questions outside of perhaps his defensive home. As the draft approached, some whispers about the hit tool maybe not being as good as advertised creeped into the conversation, and perhaps that’s why he drifted down to the 16th overall pick for the Marlins. But it could easily just have been that Rainer and Griffin provided more 5 tool type of upside allowing them to leapfrog Morlando for the prep bats in the draft. Rainer especially, but Griffin as well, provide more defensive value than Morlando, who’s likely landing spots are left field and/or first base, which means he’s got a bigger challenge to overcome to get a full-time MLB role. Why all the preamble? Because Morlando got one at bat in Single-A in his first pro game in 2024 before a rain delay hit, and a team-sanctioned weightlifting competition during the delay caused a lumbar stress injury in his back. That one ground-out to shortstop was the extent of seeing Morlando in the pro ranks in 2024, and then in March of 2025, discomfort in his non-throwing elbow led to him going under the knife for ulnar nerve transposition surgery. Recovery is typically three to six months for that surgery, leading to more uncertainty on how much we’ll see Morlando in 2025. It’s also hard to ignore the lack of success we’ve seen with the Marlins hitting dev for the last 5 to 10 years as well, so not seeing where Morlando is currently at and how real or not the hit tool questions will be is a big yellow flag right now. Ultimately Morlando is a big time power bat with possible hit tool concerns and now multiple injuries delaying his development. The prospect pedigree balances that out somewhat, but for Hobby purposes, this really comes down to how expensive his cards are, and how much risk you are willing to take on. If the price is low enough, this is a risk I’m willing to take, but I’m guessing we can wait until at least early summer before making that decision since he won’t be playing until then at the earliest. This is borderline Tier 2 and Tier 3 territory, but we've had so little exposure and time to pick holes in his game (like we have with Condon), that I'm leaning a bit more on the optimistic side with Morlando. ***Update - After completing the write-up, Morlando surprisingly returned to action sooner than expected for the Marlins Single-A squad, and it’s his profile in full display, to the extreme even. He crushed a change-up that stayed in the zone to the opposite side of center field for a home run in his first game back, showing his plus power. He’s also struck out at a 41% rate in his first five games of 2025. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier 3

None

Tier None

Fabian Lopez, 19, SS

The Marlins second highest paid signing from the 2023 International Free Agent class at $650K, Lopez was trending upward after a moderately successful debut season in the DSL. That offensive success was heavily driven by an aggressive approach at the plate, swinging at 72% of the pitches he saw. He toned that back at the Complex level in 2024 to just 55%, but that is still more than most players can get away with unless you’re a Jacob Wilson style elite contact hitter, and Lopez is no Jacob Wilson. Unfortunately, there’s no easy-to-find Complex video of Lopez, so all we get to dig our teeth into is offensive highlights against DSL heaters down the middle. And Lopez did not make the Single-A roster, so it’s safe to assume he will be returning to the Complex to start 2025 (not great to repeat). As a switch hitter, Lopez looked to have more of an uppercut, grooved swing from the left side and a flatter swing from the right hand side. And that’s about it - I didn’t see anything to get overly excited about. He’s reportedly really strong defensively but I could not find any video of that outside of his sizzle reel prior to signing, so for the moment I’m not making any judgments there. He’s stealing bases with a high frequency - 15 in 2023 and 20 in 2024, and he’s a skinny kid at the moment, so we can probably project him for a decent amount of speed as he matures. Until I get some good video, I am going to go more off the statlines. That aggressive approach, and the lack of results at the Complex in 2024 already put a dark cloud on his offensive future, has me way out on Lopez for the Hobby until further notice. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3-5 Both

Milwaukee Brewers

Tier 1

Jesus Made, 17, SS

Know who likes Jesus Made? Everybody, including Joe and I. We both had him as #1 in our 2025 Bowman Wishlist piece back in February, and based on the Dominican Prospect League Panini cards that were released back in early 2023, the prices are going to be a little nutty. We should all be OK with this, because there is readily apparent superstar potential. He’ll be the #1 1st Bowman prospect card in this set at release, and even his base Chrome will demand significant value – perhaps more than anyone since Jasson Dominguez in 2020. There just hasn’t been anyone without a Bowman card that’s developed as much hype for as long as he has (nearly a year now) with professional results to back it up. Jackson Holiday didn’t have to wait as long. Paul Skenes didn’t have to wait as long. There’s just tremendous anticipation here. He’s a Top 50 prospect almost everywhere, and in fantasy circles (which is closer to the hobby in terms of valuation), it’d be hard pressed to find him outside the Top 25. With the hobby’s love for youth and his not turning 18 until the day after release, he’s an absolute rocketship. So what are the basic facts on this stud prospect? He was signed for $950k out of the Dominican in January 2024, good for the second-highest bonus in the Brewers’ IFA class. He then went to the DSL where he showed a precocious blend of maturity and strength, slashing .331/.458/.554 with a 13 K%. His raw data was impressive as well – easily enough to head straight to Single-A Carolina to begin 2025 where he’s showing he belongs. His swing is one that allows for a long path through the zone, and he’s just very adept at knowing what to do with every pitch – he’s got a great feel for the barrel, and if feels like his power, while still developing, is effortless. He was slowed by a minor ankle injury for a few games but he’s rolled out a first-10-games line of .282/.404/.487. For such a young player, that’s pretty great. I would expect him to stay at Single-A for most of this season, but there’s no reason to think he can’t be a fast riser. There are defensive concerns, but it’s only tied to him remaining at SS, not his ability to be an average or better defender somewhere. His speed will also play as a threat for at least the immediate future, with potential of remaining as a plus asset. I don’t think I need to drone on much longer on Made. We’re all familiar with him, I’m buying the hobby hype whatever the cost (not actually, but anecdotally). Risk: 5 Ceiling: 10 Both

Luis Peña, 18, SS

An 800k signer from the Dominican Republic in 2023, there’s little doubt that Peña will be worth it already. Sure, his defense is fairly poor at present, and he’s likely to end up at 2B or 3B, but that won’t matter when we consider the rest of the tools that he’s already showing. I’m not calling him a contact savant because he posted a 8.2 K% while hitting .394 in the DSL last year – I’m calling him a contact savant because his swing and pitch identification are already fantastic. Sure, his raw power isn’t great, but he makes up for it by barreling with great frequency – he’s already registered plenty of triple digit batted ball events this year. He’s geared toward hitting low line drives, and his (at least) plus speed pairs well with that. He’s a very aggressive baserunner – the man stole 12 bases in his first 12 games this year. Also, like Jesus Made he skipped the Complex league entirely and went straight to Single-A Carolina. Here’s another thing we don’t often get to say about 18 year olds. Peña knows exactly the type of player he is and wants to be, and it’s one we can already see with projection to the majors. If he changes his swing a bit he will likely be able to tap into more HR pop – but is he better suited to do that? It’s an interesting question to weight the cost benefit of, but I think he’ll be more of an elite pesky-out leadoff type than a true hobby stud with anything close to big power numbers. While I’m extremely interested, I won’t be going crazy to acquire him – he’s already been so loud this year, which the hobby is taking note of. His ceiling isn’t the moon, but everyone can already see him landing among the stars with a little bit of syzygy. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 9 Both

Tier 2

Yophery Rodriguez, 19, OF

Kills me having to do this writeup. The Red Sox essentially poached Rodriguez early this season as part of a trade for Quinn Priester at a time when the Brewers were absolutely desperate for starting pitching. (That’s what happens when you sign nobody, but I digress.) I’ve always liked Yophery. He was signed for $1.5 MM in the 2023 IFA period and was sent directly to Single-A from the DSL last year. It’s something the Brewers have shown a willingness to do recently, and they’re pretty good at evaluating if a player is ready to do it. Now, he wasn’t stellar at the level, but posting a positive wRC+ and smacking 36 XBH is a great starting point for an 18 YO. I don’t want to talk too much about last year though because he’s made significant adjustments to his stance this year, and though it’s early, it seems to have already ticked up his offensive profile. He now stands in a deeper crouch (last year he was upright) and has made a concerted effort to not bounce his hands and instead to holding his bat in a vertical position as he strides. It makes his timing to the ball much more easy, and takes nothing away from his impact. These are the changes I love to see in a young player, and goes quite a way towards saying he has a good head for the game. I think his power and hit will both end up as at least average or better, but the ceiling of both is still squarely in development. He has great speed that allows him to play CF, but it does not translate to the bases yet. He’s an excellent speculative hobby name. Even though he’s not on my favorite team anymore, I’d be very interested in spending some of my hobby dollars on him. Because of my personal confidence in him, I'm putting him in the bottom of Tier 2, but just know he hasn't truly shown that he deserves it yet. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7 Both

Tier 3

Bishop Letson, 20, P

The Brewers’ pitching lab appears to be at it again. Taken in the 11th Round as an Indiana prep in 2023 and signed with an overslot 480k bonus (5th Round money), Letson’s stuff has never been in question. His sharp, high-spin slider is a thing of beauty and remains his best pitch. He offers two fastballs that are nothing special in terms of velocity at present (91-94), but the armside run on his sinker makes it a pitch with some real promise to make a leap to being above average or better. He also has a change, but he rarely uses it. Last year, pitching as a teen in Low-A, he accumulated 63 innings in which he allowed just a .193 average – a very nice mark to build off of in terms of limiting hard contact. The fact that his K numbers weren’t great and his command was (and still is) a work in progress can be largely forgiven because of his youth. This year, he was moved right up to High-A where he’s already set a career high with an 8 K game and still holding opponents to that low average. If that’s the leap he’s taken in the offseason, lookout – Letson could be approaching the Top 150 by the end of the year. He still has to prove the depth of his repertoire is significant enough to be effective in long stretches though, and his rail-thin frame (again, he’s only 20, that can change) doesn’t give me a ton of confidence that he can be durable over the grind of the season. Letson certainly still has several stages of development to go through before he reaches maturity as a pitcher, and I’m not concerned with any little flaws he has right now. In the hands of the Brewers, I trust them to get worked out. It’s not fair to peg him with an exact ceiling at this juncture, but it’s likely significant. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Base Only

Tier None

Josh Knoth, 19, P

As a Brewers fan I vividly remember liking the pick when they snagged him 33rd overall in 2023. Cold weather (New York) preps tend to take longer to develop, but can also make bigger gains. But with Knoth having a seemingly ready-made curve and fastball, my question was if they could progress even further. Though he was deployed to Single-A for the entire season last year, that question remains because of inconsistent play. To further my frustration, it’ll remain until next year, as after having elbow soreness at the end of last year, he ended up having Tommy John surgery in February. Ugh. Back to last year – it was mainly his command that suffered from that inconsistency the most. There were a few highlight outings where he dominated lineups for 5+ innings, racking up plenty of K. But more often that iffy command got his (limited) pitch counts elevated – he only averaged 4 innings per start. To further add to his risk profile, while he’s only a slightly undersized at 6`1”, he looks smaller than that on the mound. The good thing is that his stuff looked good. His fastball and curve were as advertised. The fastball is into the mid 90’s with nice ride, and his curve is a great downer of a breaking ball. He also showed an excellent slider that like the curve, has excellent spin metrics, and a developing change. There is still high upside with Knoth, but his development will be arrested until 2026, and the lack of command leaves him with considerable risk. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Base Only

Jadyn Fielder, 20, 2B

Being very old for a prep and being signed as a UDFA is a more important real-life snapshot of Fielder. But the hobby, with the nostalgia fueled by bloodlines and playing for an organization where his dad (Prince) played, he should draw some  interest. If you can imagine his dad slimmed down and 2 inches taller, that’s exactly what Jadyn looks like. He’s very strong throughout his body already, to the point where he’s going to have to work to maintain mobility at 2B. His swing, not surprisingly, looks like his dad’s as well. However, while Prince swung with great ferocity, Jadyn swings completely out of his shoes. It can create some decent exit velocity that looks better than it really is, but it’s rarely sustainable against high-level pitching. Such was the case in the MLB Draft League, where his quality of contact was quite poor in a hitter-friendly environment. He managed just 4 XBH in 92 PA, and only hit .207. He frequently gets into an arm bar, and frequently over-strides and loses his balance. As he learns to be a professional, there will need to be a lot more consistency in these things. Perhaps we can get a better idea of where his power and hit tools truly lie when that comes. He’ll head to the Complex this year, where he’ll begin his journey towards being a third generation major leaguer. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Chrome Auto Only

Minnesota Twins

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Payton Eeles, 25, 2B

There aren’t many stories like Eeles’ that end in having a big-league career. He played Division II baseball for four years (including 2020) at Cedarville College in Ohio before transferring to Coastal Carolina in 2023 to play his Senior season. After posting a .500 OBP there he saw little interest from MLB affiliates and instead went to the Chicago Dogs of the American Association where he continued to post excellent contact numbers. His 2024 season was even started in Indy ball briefly before he was picked up by the Twins for $500 to man 2B for their Single-A squad. He immediately did his version of laying waste to the FSL, posting a .331/.448/.517 in 34 games before Twins figured out they may have something here. You may be thinking “older player, low level, probably an anomaly.” I would think that too if we were still in June of last year, but he’s since proven otherwise, as he now has 60 games of AAA experience under his belt, and the contact numbers are STILL great. So why was he so disregarded? Well, the long and short of that is that he’s only 5’5” – he’s just gotten very strong now. He uses his small frame to his advantage, getting down low in a deep crouch, then getting even lower as he strides. His entire lower back leg nearly touches the ground as he swings. He really knows how to use his legs to drive the ball, and with his frame being so small it’s easy for him to stay on plane with pretty much everything. There’s not a lot to dislike with Eeles except his age and the fact that he’s currently recovering from knee surgery. He could legitimately be a contributor across the diamond defensively (the 2B-only thing proved to be a myth at higher levels), has good wheels (41 SB last year), and even slugged .500 at AAA last year with a sub-15 K%. Through the rosiest of glasses, that’s five tools that figure to be average, friends. He’s not likely to truly be a star, but his high-energy play is fun to watch. A story like his makes for an easy one to root for as well. He’s absolutely not a novelty – this is a future big-league contributor in some capacity. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 5 Both

Kyle DeBarge, 21, SS

The Twins’ compensatory pick for losing Sonny Gray in free agency, DeBarge, a Louisiana-Lafayette product, was taken 33rd overall last year. There’s a significant overlap in the Venn diagram of he and 1st Rounder Kaelen Culpepper. At the plate he also has a contact-heavy approach, running a similarly elite contact rate. DeBarge is smaller in stature at 5’9”, but since he starts with his hands high he’s really able to drop the hammer to the pull side with frequency and get to some juice. He’s great at launching pitches high in the zone. He’s a very aggressive hitter, and will have to mature in that aspect if he’s going to be a table-setter because his quality of contact will surely suffer in pro ball. That could affect his power ceiling pretty significantly, but if he can learn to be smarter about what pitches to hunt for in his approach, it’s a 20 HR ceiling – something that only the most quixotic projections peg on Culpepper. DeBarge’s speed is quite good and he’s an aggressive baserunner. It’s possible his smaller stature pushes him to 2B, but he’s a solid defender out there. DeBarge is a more complete package than Culpepper, but while his hit tool is likely above average it’s more questionable that he gets to it. Hobby-wise his power potential makes up for it, but since he doesn’t quite have the floor Culpepper’s defense affords and DeBarge only saw action at Single-A where he wasn’t fantastic, he’s a hair lower. He straddles the line of Tier None and Tier 3. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Both

Tier None

Andrew Morris, 23, P

Morris was drafted in 2022 in the 4th Round as a Senior from Texas Tech, but he was very young for his class, and he needed that year, as it was first after transferring from Division II Colorado Mesa. He mostly put up solid innings totals through those years, and that’s continued as a pro. So it’s safe to say that his slightly undersized (albeit wide-shouldered) 6’0” frame is not an obstacle. What I’m less sure about is his pitch mix being effective enough to get MLB hitters out. But that’s where we are in his development now – he has over 100 IP in the upper minors with varying degrees of success. So what is his pitch mix? Hard to say! There’s definitely a mid-70’s curve that’s a better pitch in terms of his ability to locate than crispness of movement – he uses that as an out pitch with some frequency. He also has a downer of a power slider he throws at 85-87 that at its best can be a real weapon, and he can turn it into a low-90’s cutter with less vertical movement. The cutter becoming a buzzsaw, weak-contact inducer against lefties will be important to him. He throws both a 92-94 sinker and a 94-96 four-seam – both of those play up because of his ability to locate, like the curve. He also has a mid-80’s change that doesn’t have a lot of armside fade – it’s probably too similar to his slider, because that pitch gets hammered quite often. He has such a kitchen sink of offerings because nothing but his slider and curve have average movement. He’s very reliant on changing speeds and location. He doesn’t truly have the high-K upside we love for the hobby despite racking up solid numbers. There’s not a lot of doubt he’ll reach the majors as a starter, and perhaps even this year. But is he a buy for the hobby at large? Probably not. It’s a back-end SP profile, with a chance he gets to being a solid #4. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 4 Both

Cory Lewis, 24, P

Lewis is quite similar to Andrew Morris in that he lacks real premium stuff and has a kitchen sink of offerings, but there’s one thing that sets him apart – his knuckleball. Not because it definitely gives him projection as a starter, but because it’s fun! It's interesting for the hobby! There’s just not many knuckleballers anymore, and his is an important part of his arsenal. It’s a hard knuckler that’s typically in the mid-80’s and gets loads of swing and miss. It actually stands as his fourth slowest pitch, as he also features a curve and change in the high-70’s, and a slider in the low-80’s. None of those really play as average pitches. He knows this. He works with his fastball and knuckle around 60 percent of the time. That fastball is only a low-90’s offering, but it has excellent spin metrics and velocity separation, so it plays up as at least average. Lewis’ command is squarely below average, and it’s especially worth noting because bad things happen when knuckleballs miss up in the zone. It’s what makes him fringy as a starting pitching prospect. He’s already seeing time in a split bullpen/starter’s role this year at AAA, and he seems somewhat close to a call-up (definitely after he works through his current rough patch though). He’s not a strong hobby name because of that likelihood of being deployed in relief roles, but I can still see him drawing interest. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 4 Both

Khadim Diaw, 21, C

No no, not the Sudanese soccer player (although it is interesting that this baseball player is the first drafted player of Senegalese descent). Diaw (pronounced jow, rhymes with cow) was taken in the 3rd Round from Loyola Marymount where his career was continually interrupted by injury, but through it all he put together an excellent slash of .432/.500/.716 (granted it’s the WCC) in his Junior season. He uses a big leg kick as a timing mechanism, but it’s not really tied to any of the movement in his upper body – it’s just superfluous. His swing does come off a little stiff and it’s a longer stroke, but there’s plenty of bat speed. I like the aggressive approach he showed in college to that effect, as it gives him the best chance to hit the ball hard – he is adept at hitting to all fields as well. Presently though, he already looks more patient as a pro. It’s also done well for him in terms of his contact rate and on-base ability. Confusing, right? I just think he’s a smart hitter who will be able to adapt to whatever comes his way. The track record is too short against not-great competition to say either his hit or power are better than average yet, but they clearly have potential. His athleticism is in less question. While he’s been a catcher for most of his amateur career and remains so in High-A this year, he’s also seeing time in the outfield, notably CF. I don’t think I really need to parse out how good of an athlete that inherently makes him. His focus isn’t on baserunning at this juncture as he settles into trying to be professional catcher, but if he flips to the OF on a more regular basis, that aspect could tick up. Diaw will be a bit of a project, but one with some unique traits and some intrigue for the hobby to latch onto. I’m interested if we treat him more like a flyer. He’s in the top of Tier None for now until his offensive game starts to be a little louder. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both

Caden Kendle, 23, OF

A 5th Round Senior sign last year from UC-Irvine for an underslot $150k, Kendle has just one attribute that stands as above average – his ability to make contact. It’s not really even his complete hit tool that’s definitely above average because he hits for little impact in a general sense, and is a bit too passive in his approach. At the plate Kendle sets his hands low and employs an inward toe-tap before striding out – it lets him get to most every pitch he decides to attack, and in his debut he ran a 98th% Z-Contact (granted, this was at Single-A as a 22 year old). But with such a complicated setup, it’s easy to see why he doesn’t have much juice unless he really grooves it. He is a stout and strong 5’11” with enough speed to play corner OF, but he’s not a threat on the bases. To me, Kendle is most likely organizational filler unless he somehow comes into a bit more pop, if not true power. I cannot imagine any hobby interest in him at all at this juncture. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 2 Both

New York Mets

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

Jonah Tong, 21, P

It’s not every draft that there is even a gem in the 7th Round, but the Mets may have found one in 2022. Tong was the youngest member of the 150 K club in the minors last year, and he did it in fewer innings than anyone else. In fact, he trailed only Matt Wilkinson and Chase Dollander in K/9 in all the minors among qualified pitchers. He’s only 6’1” and has a frame on the lighter side, but his unorthodox, over the top delivery gives him plenty of deception. He works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but he has really good command of it, and it’s especially effective with great ride up in the zone. He has three other pitches - a cutter/slider and a changeup that are works in progress, and a squarely above-average curve that he uses often as a putaway pitch. Now, curves aren’t all that in vogue in the majors, and the ride on his fastball is just that – there isn’t much armside run. So he’s really only working up and down with his two best pitches. To succeed at higher levels one of those other two pitches will need to advance. I think he’ll absolutely get there. He did experience a few ticks back in command as the year went on, but he also blasted all the way from Single-A to AA, so I’m willing to forgive that from a guy who doesn’t turn 22 until June. Tong is quite a hobby-significant pitcher, and one I’m personally very much interested in. He might only be a mid-rotation arm at maturity, but he’ll always cause batters fits with that delivery. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7 Both

Tier 3

None

Tier None

None

New York Yankees

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Chase Hampton, 23, P

A diverse arsenal with at least one plus pitch and arguably more that can get plenty of strikeouts while a prospect for the most collectible team in baseball - what’s not to like? Unfortunately, injuries. A flexor strain to begin 2024, and then a hamstring injury when he returned limited him to under 20 innings on the mound last season. Full of hope to begin Spring Training in February, the flexor tendon issue came back with a vengeance and he went under the knife for UCL surgery (no word on which variety). This sets his timetable back significantly, with the most likely scenario being 2027 for an MLB debut. If Hampton had a full, healthy 2024, it’s hard to imagine how he would NOT have been in the 2025 Yankees MLB rotation instead of Will Warren or Carlos Carrasco. That fastball is nasty with some of the best rise you can get on a four seamer. The curveball is something he would regularly drop in for strikes, and he has a promising cutter and slider as his next go-to pitches. There were some velocity issues as well as growing command concerns leading to elevated walk rates in the small 2024 sample, but I’m choosing to ignore those as I don’t think he was fully healthy. A pitcher with this profile and full health is likely someone I slot into Tier 2 as a potential SP2. In addition, a prospect in Double-A is usually going to get a Risk rating of five at worst, and more than likely in the three to four range. Sadly both of those scenarios are significantly impacted by the injuries, recent surgery, and delayed debut timeline. As a pitcher with the deck now stacked against him, and not having 1st Bowman autographs on top of it, I’d look elsewhere for places to put my Hobby dollar. Risk 7 Ceiling 8 Base Only

Engelth Urena, 20, C/1B

Urena signed for 275k back in 2022, showed some promise in the DSL that year, then missed 2023 with a broken hand. He came back in full force last year at the Complex and was quite impressive at the plate – he walked more than he struck out, hit over .300, and smacked 19 XBH in 40 games. I want to urge caution though – the power could just be that fact that he was a year older than most and has a strong, stocky physical build already. So why wasn’t he promoted to Single-A at the end of the Complex season? Well, it’s because he’s not a strong defender at either catcher or 1B. The goal is for him to stick behind the dish because at 5’11”, he’s not an ideal target as a first baseman. He may be headed down the DH-only path sooner rather than later, which would narrow his path forward considerably. If he can repeat his contact numbers this year at Single-A with the excellent discipline he showed, that should be enough by itself to propel him in the near term. I don’t really know what to make of his power ceiling at this juncture, but it’s at least average. The Yankees market is notoriously aggressive, and I think that will be the case here as he’s their best young player in the product. With that being a factor, I will not be chasing him – there’s just too much position limitation. Still, the potential with his bat is enough to push him into the back of Tier 3. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Rafael Flores, 22, C/1B

Signed in 2022 as a UDFA from Rio Hondo JC in eastern LA County, Flores is a big dude at 6’4” 220 – probably too big to play catcher. He’s tried hard to shake that stigma for several years now, but he’s really just still not a great defender back there. Despite showing some good power last year, I unfortunately think he needs to stick at catcher to make it to the majors in a significant role. His package as a hitter is better in raw form than in-game, rooted mainly in that power. Flores’ swing is a long one, but he knows that. He sets his hands low in an effort to stay on plane with breaking pitches, and the result is plenty of line drives, some of which he can really get into and hit over the fence. He does cheat out with his hip a bit before really getting into his swing, and that saps some of his raw juice. His discipline showed as squarely average last year. When you put the whole package together it was average hit and average power at AA, but with his defensive limitations his overall profile slides to below average, and a fringe major-leaguer projection. That’s actually a positive projection for a former UDFA! But for the hobby, while there is a hope of 15-20 HR, it means things are going poorly in the Bronx if he’s getting that significant of playing time. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4 Both

Edgleen Perez, 18, C

Perez was an unheralded signing in March of 2023, but he quickly went to the DSL that year and showed he was one to watch, really in aspects of his game. His arm especially may end up as above average or better. It’s not something we care about in the hobby in general, but when it means a player has a better chance of sticking at a position when he doesn’t have versatility – it matters much more. He’s still improving his receiving game overall though, and is still splitting time with DH. At the plate he looks really impressive to me. There’s not high-end bat speed or exit velocity quite yet, but he’s already very strong in his 5’11” frame. It’s rare to see this from a player who doesn’t turn 19 until late May, but his swing is really devoid of major defect. He does load his backside to a very closed stance, but it works for him because it helps him stay on plane for a very long time. What was even more impressive last year is his plate decisions. He simply did not expand the zone at all, and rarely swung and missed. This resulted in a ridiculous 21 BB% at the Complex – that’s not predictive, but it is a marker of a hit tool that should play. He was immediately deployed to Low-A this year, a rarity for a catcher of his age. He does seem to have the maturity to handle the level – it’ll just take a little while to show up statistically. The biggest question with Perez is how much power he can get to. With a steep learning curve ahead of him this year I wouldn’t expect to see much for a year-plus. Assuming he continues to improve defensively, that should make him a long-term sleeper in this product. Wait…a Yankee sleeper?! Maybe! Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both

Richard Matic, 17, 3B

Matic signed for 850k in January of 2024, good for 4th most in the Yankees signing class. He’s very young for the class, just barely squeezing in before the signing cutoff with a July 26 birthday. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Matic’s bat as he progresses, as he’s already slid to 3B where he was quite a poor defender in the DSL. There’s definitely a possibility that he can improve, but it may be easier to stick him at 1B and see if he can turn himself into an average defender. So what does his bat look like? Well, not great, bob. He only hit .196 in the DSL last year, and it’s not because he was underdeveloped – there’s loads of present strength that should get better as he matures. At the plate he starts with his hands on the lower side and uses a big leg kick, then striding and landing with his hip in a slightly open position. Not ideal, but also not the worst part. As he strides he lifts his hands up and back into a tomahawk-like position, which greatly lengthens his bat path and makes it really hard for him to find quality contact. He really needs to simplify his swing sooner rather than later – as it is there’s nothing resembling a player that should reach the high minors. There’s clear raw power here, but accessing remains a bit chimerical at this juncture and being lower on the defensive spectrum knocks him down a bit further. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5 Both

Philadelphia Phillies

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Aroon Escobar, 20, 2B

I know he's been making waves now, but just know Escobar has been on my radar for awhile – not just based on what he did in the Complex last year. I loved what I saw in his swing when I watched him in January. Some players take awhile to work into who they’ll be as hitters. Escobar is definitely one of those, having worked through major quality of contact issues for two years (!) in the DSL before really breaking out in limited playing time last year. His season was cut short by shin splints, but man did he make a mark with me with his contact skills. It was so impressive that I want to take it at face value – future hit tool stud with some power potential. Bam. There you have it. Flag planted. However, to expect a sub-10 K%, 20 BB%, and high average like he did last year would be foolish. Now getting his first taste of Single-A, he’s already flashing that the high average part at least may not be a fluke. At the plate he starts with his hands high and takes a wide stride – wider than most hitters are comfortable taking. But it works for him, and lets him get into great position to do damage by really catching the ball out front, be it to the pull side or not. It does affect his launch angle, but hunting for true over-the-fence power isn’t the goal here. He’s only 5’10” and has a stocky build, but he really wears it well – mobility is not an issue for him at 2B at present. His arm is also capable at 3B, so perhaps if he does slow down he’ll spend more time there. The terrestrial swing path hurts his ceiling, but as long as he’s hitting the ball as hard as he has been for the last year, he’ll smack plenty of doubles, and eventually at least 10-15 HR. To begin 2025 he’s already laying waste to Single-A because he’s so strong – his K% ticked up a bit, but no one cares when you have a hitter who’s slashing .371/.480/.645 through 16 games. Can we get this guy to High-A where he’s still a good fit for his age? I don’t think Escobar is a hobby hero, but for me personally, he’s exactly the type of player I like. Sadly, with this hot start, so does everybody else (I wrote most of this before). He’s still in Tier 3 as to not react to 89 PA's, but be aware that rank might be low. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Wen-Hui Pan, 22, P

Well, let’s start with the fact that Pan (pronounced when-hoy pon) underwent Tommy John surgery in November and will not toe the rubber at all this year. He will be 23 by the next time he sees competition, and hasn’t yet touched the high minors. He’s also a straight reliever. Starting is never something he’s done, and considering the injury, he won’t be doing in the future. His command being on the poor side is befitting the role as well. But he’s a power pitcher with great stuff, and may eventually land in a high leverage role. His fastball has been well into the upper 90 and has some nice carry. His splitter is a true plus pitch that gets loads of whiff, and his slider, while a work in progress, gives him a breaking option with a little more horizontal movement. Signed for $350k in 2023, there is significant financial commitment to Pan and he’s made strides – he’s just been a hair old for the levels and will remain so when he returns. Hobby-wise though, he’ll be on the older side if he debuts, and in a role we generally care little about, with only the most remote hopes he escapes it. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Both

Pittsburgh Pirates

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

None

Tier None

Tsung-Che Cheng, 23, SS/2B

Cheng made his major league debut back on April 9, making him the first Taiwanese ballplayer to debut since 2019 (Yu Chang) and only the 5th position player overall. It was nice to see, but his status as a prospect has been stagnant for over a year now. Those who have been tracking him since 2023 know he had a great run at HIgh-A in the first half of that year where he showed some real pop, and I for one questioned if he could retain a version of that as he moved up. It just hasn’t proven to be the case. He’s a good, professional hitter that’s not an easy out by any means, but his raw offensive skills just aren’t carrying him. At the plate he starts with his hands away from his body, then brings them back as he strides. That keeps him from truly getting into anything resembling true power, and it results in a lot of weak balls in the air. He’s not just trying to punch the ball though – there’s a swing plane issue here and he doesn’t square up enough. It hasn’t always been that way – it’s a result of pitchers learning to pitch him hard away with frequency. He does make up for it with his glove and speed to an extent. His glove is more valuable for its versatility and reliability and his fielding being truly being an above-average asset. His speed is currently above average, but in looking at his body type one can easily see it slipping closer to average in the next few years. I don’t see any reason to like Cheng through the hobby lens personally. There are folks who collect Taiwanese players, and as he’s already played in the majors, Pirates collectors should show some interest as well. But for most of us, he’s just not exciting. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 4 Both

Mitch Jebb, 22, 2B/SS

Jebb went to high school in the Saginaw, MI area where I grew up. It’s far from a baseball hotbed, though Spencer Schwellenbach is also from the area, so maybe that’s changing? Jebb went to Michigan State where he played a solid middle infield for three years as a starter. More importantly, in the Cape Cod League he seemingly showed he would be able to handle a wood bat just fine – a question that was going to be a huge one considering his complete lack of impact in East Lansing. That allaying-of-fears had him bumped all the way up into the 2nd Round in the 2023 Draft. Maybe we shouldn’t have been so optimistic about his offensive skill set? Jebb didn’t look out of place in High-A last year, but it’s very apparent that he won’t ever have a .400 SLG. He’s a slappy hitter with a very flat swing plane – he doesn’t try to drive the ball often. In fact, he hit more balls to the opposite field than he pulled last year. With a player of this type I want to see elite contact numbers – his were just above average, and as a 22 year old for most of the year it’s just not all that impressive. He is impressive in other ways though. He’d be an above average defender at 2B were he ever deployed exclusively there, and he has some experience in CF as well. He also has plus speed, and is an aggressive runner who stole 43 bases last year. I think Jebb has a fairly clear path to the majors eventually, but in a role that will ever glean hobby significance? Absolutely not. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4 Both

San Diego Padres

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Cobb Hightower, 20, 2B/SS

In AJ Preller we trust? Hightower didn’t even crack our top 300 prep prospects heading into the 2024 MLB Draft as one of the older preps committed to UNC for his college ball. And yet the Padres took Hightower in the 3rd round and paid him slot money. Hightower hasn’t gotten in any official games yet, and likely starts 2025 at the Complex since he was not on the Padres Single-A roster in Lake Elsniore, but we did get some glimpses from the bridge league in 2024 and Spring Training in 2025. In those glimpses, Hightower looks like a solid, high floor player. Defensively he made a couple of really solid plays in Spring Training at second base. Offensively, I only was able to find video with him in the box, but the speed on defense looks like it could easily translate to the basepaths. Matt Thompson has also said that speed and defense caught his eye in his FYPD breakdown article. In the box, Hightower looked patient and regularly put solid contact on the ball. This is an incomplete ranking as I don’t have any full game tape to review, but what I’ve seen is promising and I’m comfortable ranking him in Tier 3 with upside for more if he can show some development towards a plus hit tool. If his cards are cheap, I wouldn’t mind buying a few lottery tickets here. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6-8 Both

Humberto Cruz, 18, P

The Padres spent over 60% of their 2024 International Free Agent pool money on Leo De Vries, which I think we can all agree at this point looks like a great decision. The next highest bonus they gave in 2024, at just over 10% of their pool for a total of $750K, was Humberto Cruz. In fact, the Padres traded Blake Dickerson to the Tigers for an extra $500K in international pool money and that was reportedly done to enable the signing of Cruz. All that is well and good, but what do we know about Cruz? Not much - he’s pitched two innings at the Complex in 2024 and is likely ticketed to begin the season there in 2025. Those two innings looked good, and I liked the “look” of Cruz - long legs, a smooth delivery, and nothing jumping out to me that gave me pause. He was able to get some swing and misses as well as a couple of strikeouts. At the moment, I’d give Cruz an incomplete grade until I can see more and get some usable sample size data. It’s more of a dart throw based on the Padres spending quite a bit for an International pitcher, and a reliance on AJ Preller being the best talent evaluator in the baseball world, that has me ranking Cruz in Tier 3. But to be clear, this evaluation is highly subject to change. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both

Tier None

Ismael Javier, 19, 2B/SS

One of if not the oldest players in his first season in the DSL in 2023, Javier opened some eyes with the results he put up - a .280/.386/.505 triple slash, 9 home runs, and 8 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 133. And then came 2024 at the Complex level, and it did not go well. There really isn’t much to hang your hat on - a 27% K rate, 46% groundball rate, and a sub-70% contact rate are all bad indicators at this low of a level. There were too many swings that lacked conviction, but when he was on a pitch, you could see some of that bat speed and compact swing path that enabled him to put up those good DSL numbers. Javier didn’t hit any home runs at the Complex, and I wouldn’t project him for more than average power at best, and more like fringe average given his small stature. He’s listed at 5’8”, and I’m not sure how much I believe that. On the other hand, he looked fast on the basepaths, even if he was only able to tally three on the year in 2024. That was likely more of a function of not being on base much that not having the speed to do so. Defensively, I couldn’t find any video, but I think we can rely on what Alex Jensen was told after the 2023 DSL season - that while he has the arm strength, he didn’t have the accuracy to stick at shortstop with a shift to second base in the offing. Javier spent almost every game at second base in the Complex. Any hope of an everyday MLB player after the 2023 DSL season is now gone. This is now looking like org depth as the most likely outcome and someone we can ignore for Hobby purposes. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Base

San Francisco Giants

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Jhonny Level, 18, SS

I’m going to pretty much copy paste from my write-up of Level in the 2025 Preseason Bowman Wishlist: “He’s a legitimate prospect with an easy route to top 5 prospects in the organization and possibly top 100 overall prospect potential if everything falls into place, although that list may be a bit harder to crack. Level’s top line results in the DSL in 2024 were all really good - a .275/.393/.517 triple slash with a 14% walk rate, 17% K rate, 10 home runs, and 18 stolen bases for a 140 wRC+. The power is the real question on how much he gets to as he matures, as he’s a smaller guy even if he’s a muscular type of frame. At the lower levels, he’s potentially going to be able to do it, but it’s hard to bet big on smaller guys getting to it regularly in the big leagues for that real Hobby impact. If you’re dreaming, like I am as a Giants fan, you can hope for a future 20/20 shortstop. We’ll see how he handles his first season in state-side ball, but at the moment I’m cautiously optimistic.” With Complex ball yet to have started at the time of writing, there really isn’t much more to say about Level. We’ve gotten some extended spring training highlights posted to social media, but watching highlights shows us all the good and none of the bad, so we can mostly ignore that. He’s a borderline Tier 2 and Tier 3 player. Long term I’d rank him as a Tier 3 player because I just don’t believe the power will be there with his current body type, even as young as he is and perhaps a growth spurt in to come. And watching him in Spring Training - I’m not even sure he’s close to the 5’10” he’s listed as - the bat in his hands makes him look even smaller as it feels like he’d be lucky to be twice the height of the bat. The numbers so far tell the story of a Tier 2 player that can hit, run, and put the ball over the fence, but the physicality during the eye test doesn’t. He’s going to have to beat some serious odds, essentially being an outlier player like Jose Altuve, to produce those same types of numbers at the highest levels. When I ignore my Giants fandom and try to look at this dispassionately, I’m skeptical that this beating the odds scenario will happen, and if the Hobby treats him like a Tier 2 player, I’d sell into that hype all day long. I might be one of those buyers, but that’s because I’m buying Giants cards and not exactly buying that Level beats the odds. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7 Both

Tier None

Jacob Bresnahan, 19, P

Acquired at the 2024 trade deadline along with Nate Furman from Cleveland for Alex Cobb, Bresnahan has some decent raw clay that could turn into an SP3/SP4 type if everything breaks right for him. He currently sports a three pitch mix coming from the left side with a low to mid 90’s four seamer, a slider, and a change-up. From what I watched, the command left quite a bit to be desired. His fastball was frequently missing to the arm-side and I saw too many other offerings end up in the dirt. The zone whiff was rarely there for any of his pitches. On the other hand, he got a fair bit of swing and miss with his slurvy slider and occasional change-up as long as he kept them below the zone. The floor is a loogy style bullpen arm, and the Ceiling, as I said earlier, could be a lower end mid-rotation starter. The physical build is there to believe that is a potential outcome and jump into Tier 3 consideration. For now, the path to get there is going to be a long one for the 19 year old and I would not go out of my way for his cards (unless you’re a Giants fan like me) while monitoring for further developments. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Both

Onil Perez, 22, C

The Dominican catcher has been an intriguing name towards the back of Giants prospect lists for a few years now with the above average or better plate approach and contact skills, but his first full year at High-A in 2024 was a reality check. Everything looked fine with the contact rates, swing rates, whiff rates all in the above average type of area. But the results were definitely not there as I saw a lot of poor contact, leading to a .236 average and an 87 wRC+. He’s got the eye of a catcher with the bat in his hand, and that generally leads to decent to above average walk rates. That should help to potentially give him some sort of offensive floor and perhaps a future backup catcher role. He’s an aggressive runner when he is on base, looking to take the extra base with the ball in play, and stealing more than you’d expect with his body type. That body type is a stockier, slightly shorter than average player which looks the part behind the dish. Defensively, he’s fine, but nothing special, which doesn’t help his chances, as currently constructed, to find his way to a long-term MLB role. Never being a power hitter, and with the one potential standout tool being his hit tool, This is an easy avoid for the Hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Base

Seattle Mariners

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

None

Tier None

Jared Sundstrom, 23, OF

For being a former 10th Round Senior sign in 2023, Sundstrom has done pretty well. Now, that’s not to say he has projection of a MLB starting OF – but a future bench bat/4th OF-type? Sure, I can get there now. The UC Santa Barbara product really only needs to improve his contact rate a bit. Last year he posted just a 67% contact rate, which only the most elite sluggers can get away with. Sundstrom is no elite slugger. He LOOKS like a slugger at 6’2” 230 lbs, and his strength and levers give him some great raw power. But he knows his flaws, and he sets his hands low to keep his swing as short as possible. It leads to a lot more high-velocity liners than fly balls when everything is clicking. Sundstrom is a hair too aggressive at the plate, and I do wonder if taking a few more pitches could get him where he wants to be in terms of seeing more favorable counts and pitches he likes. He runs well for a man his size, having experience as a CF and is also adept as stealing bases when occasion calls for it. He’s off to a very nice start in 2025, now at AA for the first time. Let’s see if he can continue to experience gains at the plate and reach the majors next year! There’s a bit of intrigue with him because he does have power, and maybe more quantifiably he hits the ball very hard – but keep in mind we’ll be looking at an older debut here if he pans out. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Both

Grant Knipp, 23, TWP

A senior sign with hobby intrigue? Yeah, I think so! However, it's very, very low end intrigue. Not only is Knipp only a retail paper-only auto subject, but he’s also out for all of this year after undergoing a TJ / internal brace combo surgery earlier this spring. So yeah, this is a guy who won’t make his pro debut until 2026 at age 24. But when he gets healthy, I love the theory of him being a two-way player. He’s not a supreme athlete or anything like that – this is a (former?) catcher who was thrown on the mound for his senior season in relief and immediately started pumping high-90’s heat, with some feel for secondaries. He’s obviously very raw as a pitcher, and that may have contributed to his injury, but can you imagine your DH coming in at the end of the game to close it out? That’s the ideal here. And he does have the power to be a DH as well. It’s plus raw power, with game power a tick below because there’s some contact issues. He almost doesn’t stride at all – he uses his muscular physique and strong hands to pull the ball to oblivion. He did have a 21 K% at Campbell for his career though, not a strong mark for a one-dimensional bat. The dream of it all coming together is an intriguing one. He’ll just be very old by the time it comes to fruition though, and hobby-wise, that leaves him with only that little bit of intrigue. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4 Paper Auto Only

St. Louis Cardinals

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

JJ Wetherholt, 22, SS

Wetherholt was my second choice in our 2025 Preseason Bowman Wishlist article and I’ll excerpt the main thoughts I had at the time: “A couple of the teams ahead of the Cardinals in the 2024 draft may end up regretting passing up on a future everyday middle infielder or third baseman with All-Star potential, advanced bat skills, and the potential to debut sooner rather than later. If Wetherholt can produce above average power in game as we have him projected for, along with his easily plus hit tool, the floor becomes exceptionally high. A .300 hitter with big time on base skills that gets to 20+ home runs and 20 stolen bases, assuming his soft tissue issues aren’t chronic, on a highly collectable team are all the ingredients you could ask for a floor of a Tier 2 player with Tier 1 treatment during his Bowman release.” The top ranked Cardinals prospect for Prospects Live, and pretty much across the industry, it’s really hard to find any faults in Wetherholt’s game outside of the injury questions and that he’s going to have to move off shortstop. The shortstop question isn’t something I’m overly concerned with because it would have been really difficult to push Masyn Winn off the position anyways. The injury question unfortunately has cropped back up as Wetherholt left the game on April 18th for precautionary reasons. Supposedly he’s fine, but we’ve yet to see him play a game since as of writing. If it was a significant issue, I’d assume we’d already heard by now given his prospect prestige, so I’m trying to be cautiously optimistic with the situation. ***Update - Wetherholt has played one game, on April 27th, since the above was written. As I said above, I think Wetherholt at peak could end up as a .300 20/20 player. To start his career, I’d bank more on the average than anything else and take any power and speed he produces on debut as a bonus. It’s a borderline Tier 1 and Tier 2 profile and the Floor over Ceiling play. This is in my opinion, the highest Floor prospect in the product - if we were ranking that aspect, he would easily be a 10 on that scale. That hit tool is considered plus, but I’d say there’s elite potential there with his strong eye and contact skills (90th percentile whiff in 2024 at Single-A and 97th percentile whiff in 2025 at Double-A). The first round draft pick pedigree, top team prospect notoriety, and Cardinals collectability are all strong helium drivers, especially in a product lacking a plethora of headliners. On the other hand, I just don’t see enough of a Hobby Ceiling to push him into Tier 1 outside of the typical peak card price spikes - at release and at debut. I’m not going to overpay for his cards, but if I did end up with them, I’d be ready to sell when he debuts, which could easily be this season if he’s back to playing any time soon. Risk: 4 Ceiling 8 Both

Quinn Mathews, 24, P

The Prospects Live 2024 Minor League Pitcher of the Year and our second ranked Cardinals prospect, Mathews' rise was meteoric in 2024. The college version of Mathews was the classic lower velocity, pitchability lefty that could churn through the innings. The pro version of Mathews is mid-90’s velocity paired with a plus change-up, above average slider, and plus command. He started the year in Single-A and chewed up every level with very few speed bumps until he hit Triple-A to finish the year, where he just sort of survived the four games he pitched there to finish off the year. Strikeouts and whiffs were suddenly a regular occurrence with a K%-BB% at 27% or better until he hit Triple-A. I was really excited to see how Mathews was going to handle Triple-A to start 2025 after having an off-season to rest. The opportunity to pitch in St. Louis this season seemed almost a foregone conclusion to me. However, three underwhelming starts and a drop in velocity led to Mathews being sent to the IL with nebulous shoulder fatigue/soreness. If Mathews returns to health and has the same velocity we saw in 2024, this is an SP3 with even higher upside all day long. If there is a shoulder surgery lurking in the short-term shadows, it’s anyone’s best guess as to what he looks like on the other side of that. While I’ve had to temper my expectations as far as what I’d be willing to pay for his cards, I still think the track record is deserving of a Tier 2 ranking until we get more news on his status. Hopefully that happens in the short window between writing this up and release date. If not, I’d be a bit more cautious with spending my hobby dollars here. What would have been a risk rating of one is being pushed up to a three to represent that. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 8 Both

Tier 3

Chen-Wei Lin, 23, P

The 2023 International Free Agent out of Taiwan possesses an intriguing blend of potential starting pitching characteristics. At 6’7”, he’s got long, skinny limbs that generate mid to high 90’s velocity with his plus four seam fastball driven by obvious above average extension. That pitch had a tjStuff+ rating of 108 - there were only eight qualified pitchers in Single-A last year with a better tjStuff+ rating on their fastball in 2024. His two primary secondaries are an above average change-up and a work-in-progress slider. When he commands those pitches, they are big time whiff machines. The change-up currently works especially well off of his fastball. However, the command is the primary challenge for Lin. That could easily be his relative rawness, even for a 23 year-old, as 2024 was his first full season effort. He pitched just 16 innings in 2023, and ramped that up to 116 innings in 2024. The secondary concern is health. Lin was placed on the minor league injury list to begin the 2025 with an undisclosed issue, and as of writing he has not returned. I could not find any reason why he is on the IL and if nothing is revealed by the time of release, this is a big buyer beware situation. I really liked the potential for Lin to be a future mid-rotation starter as his Ceiling outcome based on his 2024 video. I will acknowledge that there is more than likely a backend rotation outcome as well as a some sort of bullpen arm if he can’t iron out the command and lift his secondaries out of the average-ish ranks. If he was healthy and pitching right now, I’d be much more comfortable ranking him in Tier 3 and buying his cards if cheap. As it stands, I still see the ingredients of a Tier 3 arm and will rank him there, but I’d recommend waiting on buying his cards until we do see what the reason is behind the IL situation. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Sammy Hernandez, 20, C

The Cardinals have built themselves really nice, young backstop depth. Already at the MLB level we’ve got Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pagés. Hot on their heels is Jimmy Crooks, currently handling Triple-A just like he’s taken care of every level below it. In Double-A, you’ve got Leonardo Bernal also showing he’s a future major leaguer. Rainiel Rodriguez potentially doesn’t stick at catcher, but he was one of the best players in the DSL in 2024. Ryan Campos, the Cardinals 4th round pick in 2024, is another backstop that I think has a future backup catcher role with a strong hit tool and a gamer-type of mentality that succeeds despite not being the most physically gifted player. All of this lead-in is to paint the picture of how hard it will be for Sammy Hernandez to crack the Cardinals top 5 catchers list, let alone be in consideration for a future MLB role. On the other hand, catchers are regularly in the line of fire and theoretically at higher risk of injury, so I guess you never know. At this point Hernandez has an above average hit tool and not much else. Spending most of last year at Single-A, he put up a very nice 11% walk rate with an 18% K rate leading to a 118 wRC+. His zone contact rate was an impressive 85% and he limited his whiff rate to under 23% (79th percentile). There was a bit too much outside of the zone swing, and an almost complete lack of power as he’s never hit more than six home runs in a minor league season. He’s not going to steal bases, and he’s a work in progress behind the dish at the moment. He’ll be in a crouch for some pitches, mostly ones planned to go towards the top of the zone, and then goes to one knee for mid to low pitches - there’s a LOT of pre-pitch movement back there right now. We’re essentially looking at a contact-first backup catcher profile that’s a major work in progress. I don’t see any reason to be a Hobby buyer here given the profile, the Cardinals catching depth, and the lack of autos. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3 Base Only

Zack Showalter, 21, P

The third piece in the Jack Flaherty trade at the 2023 trade deadline from the Orioles (Cesar Prieto and Drew Rom the others), Showalter has transitioned into a bullpen role with St. Louis. Given his high K rates but also high BB rates, it was definitely the right move. He’s a two pitch guy at this point, but you will get others that creep in from his days as a starter on rare occasions - typically that’s a changeup. The primary pitch, which plays way up from the pen, is his four seam fastball. It lives in the low 90’s, but has elite elevation driving a ton of swing and miss. In isolation, when that pitch is on, it’s great, and the whiffs he gets from it are highlight-worthy. His main secondary is a curveball, which at times can get slurvy and at other times look more like a true curve. There could be some future high leverage relief role here with the high K rate, but he’s only in High-A at this point. That’s a long way to go before he can have any sort of Hobby relevance, and that rarely occurs from the bullpen, so we can safely spend Hobby dollars elsewhere. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Base Only

Tampa Bay Rays

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Brody Hopkins, 23, P

It was probably a bad choice to write up Blake Wolters and then jump onto Brody Hopkins next. There are too many similarities to not call them out. 6’4” and just over 200 pound right handed starting pitcher. Mid-90’s fastball. Slider the primary secondary that gets swing and miss. Inconsistent change-up as the third pitch in the arsenal. Top 5 to 10 range prospects in their team’s pre-season top prospects list. Command issues leading to high walk rates. Mid-rotation SP upside. The primary difference is that for the moment, Hopkins stuff is just better. He had a combined 27% K rate in 2024, split between Single-A (with the Mariners) and High-A (with the Rays). To start off 2025, Tampa has Hopkins in Double-A for the first time, and it’s dropped down to a 21% K rate in a small sample so far, which isn’t great, but it’s still better than Wolters. The arsenal, while it looks the same on the surface, is a bit different as well, with Hopkins having just a touch more velocity. He also throws multiple fastball and slider variations. So what looks like a three pitch arsenal on paper is more like a five pitch arsenal. One other important difference is that I trust Tampa’s development staff a lot more than I trust the Royals group. Not to mention the Rays targeted Hopkins in a trade at the 2024 deadline, along with Aidan Smith, for Randy Arozarena, and more often than not, the Rays know what they are doing when they make trades. This is another mid-rotation SP with strikeout stuff that needs work and is now having to figure out how to survive against a better class of hitters. It’s going to be a bumpy ride given the profile, but I’d be much more willing to spend a few bucks on Hopkins at this point rather than Wolters. Another thing to consider is that Hopkins only has chrome autos (no base 1st Bowman), so that could lead to a bit of a supply vs. demand situation if he doesn’t get base 1st Bowmans in 2025 Bowman Chrome, and Hopkins takes that next step forward. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7 Chrome Auto Only

Santiago Suarez, 20, P

Originally signed by the Marlins out of Venezuela in 2022, Suarez was traded to the Rays in the November of that year (the same deal that brought Xavier Edwards to Miami). He’s had a quick ascent with the Rays that has a trajectory I really like. In 2023 he wasn’t missing many bats but had excellent performance in the Complex & Single-A. Then last year, entirely in Single-A it was a small step back in performance but a solid 3% tick up in K% while maintaining a low BB% and handling a 111 IP workload as a 19 year old. He is a command-first pitcher, something that’s always projected as a future plus asset. It’s just a really easy, repeatable delivery with a strong 6’2” frame that makes that such a strong asset. This isn’t to denigrate his pitch mix at all. There’s a fastball with life up in the zone that he works with in the 95-96 range. There’s a power curve in the low-80’s that’s his primary breaker. His change is more of a work in progress but projects well. With three legitimate pitches and great command of them all, there’s significant upside with Suarez. Exactly how good his command gets will determine his ceiling as a #2, or closer to mid-rotation, but it doesn’t matter all that much for the hobby. There will be high-K upside, and he’s almost surely a starter long-term. Now at High-A for his age 20 season, he could be a hobby darling (if only he had autographs in this release). Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7 Base Only

Gary Gill Hill, 20, P

Would you believe that, despite the fact that Hill is still only 20 for most of the year and didn’t do much until last year, Gill HIll was drafted back in 2022? This is how prep projects are supposed to work, friends! A 5th Round, 600k signer, he’s from the Hudson Valley in New York. Being from a cold weather area like this usually means a longer development, but it’s starting to accelerate rapidly now. He showed a true starters’ repertoire in Low-A last year, pitching a robust 108 innings to boot. His most dynamic pitch is his two-plane slider with excellent movement. Coming from a lower arm slot, he also features a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s with armside run and a change that pairs off of it very well. All three of these pitches already have clear projection to be above average or better. The one thing he does need to improve on is consistency – he struggled down the stretch last year, and before that his lack of execution led to a bit more contact than you’d expect for a player with his stuff. Still – he was only 19 though. Deployed to High-A to begin this year, be on the lookout for the true breakout. He’s definitely a pitcher on the rise, and one with considerable ceiling. I would take him over other promising arms at the same level in this product such as Bishop Letson because his mix is already so developed. To me, that lowers his risk. But to others, being a Ray may nullify that advantage. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7 Both

Tier None

Jack Lines, 19, SS

The Rays saved enough in their early rounds to buy out Lines’ Florida State commitment for $400k in the 12th Round of the 2024 Draft. He wasn’t a highly regarded Draft prospect, but it’s easy to see what makes him a good project. A Canadian native who came into the draft via TNXL Academy in Florida (where he’d been training for several years), Lines has some nice bat speed coupled with a shot to stick as a SS. Now, it’s great that he looks comfortable doing it, but he does sell out for his bat speed. His mechanics aren’t the smoothest, taking a big stride and leaving his front leg bent, then torquing it back to a blocking position to really give himself power to his hip. He certainly has enough strength in his legs to make that work already, and it gives him some nice launch angles as well. However, I do wonder what it’ll look like against professional pitching where it’ll be easier to fool him. He was deployed directly to Single-A to begin 2025 (mostly plaing 2B), where he has been striking out too much, but I’ll give him some time to make adjustments before really making an evaluation. There’s not much more to go on here because of the undercovered nature of his Draft stock, so be on the lookout for what he’s doing this year! If he starts showing real power, that means his swing is likely translating just fine. As with all late round preps, there’s plenty of risk, but also potential for becoming a steal. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6 Both

Owen Wild, 22, P

So…Wild is not a great last name for a pitcher! Fortunately, he showed last year that command is closer to a forte  (6.2 BB%) than a challenge, so it’s not at all fitting in that context. He was a 2023 7th Round Pick from Gonzaga who really ascended quite a bit with his performance across Single-A and High-A. He proved his strong frame would play as a starter, going 121 innings, performing better at the higher level and striking out 151 batters in total. He only works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but it plays up thanks to both deception in his over-the-top delivery and good ride. He pairs it with a slider that has good depth and a change that plays well off the other two pitches. Wild really may not have a single pitch that’s above average – that limits his hobby ceiling quite a bit. But wait. He had a 30.4 K% last year. What gives? Doesn’t that mean he has high K upside? I’m out on a limb here by saying probably not – he was a bit old for the levels he pitched at, and again, that deception alone only gets you far against more advanced hitting. With his shallower repertoire, I think his most probable outcome is as a backend starter. He’s already shown then when he’s not missing bats, he can get hit quite hard. It’s a very nice pick for the Rays, but they’re rich in pitching, and Wild seems like more of a spare part in their system. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Base Only

Mike Vasil, 25, P

Vasil’s pro career began in 2021 as an 8th Round pick of the Mets, where he had a great showing at the beginning of 2023 in AA. Then he was promoted and just …stalled out, for an entire 16 months. In 43 starts at AAA, his ERA is 5.87 his WHIP is 1.52, and his average against is over .270. He seemed destined to be a Quad-A player by the numbers, but scouts had a different idea. The Rays (via trade with the Phillies) snagged him in the Rule V Draft as a depth piece (why he’s a Ray in this product). Then when he didn’t make the club out of Spring Training, the White Sox snagged him off waivers, where he’s off to an excellent start in their bullpen. So why the sudden turn in effectiveness? Well, it’s shorter spurts (generally 2-3 IP), and he has a kitchen sink of offerings that have atypical movement. So when you’re only seeing him once per game, he can be really tough to square up. None of those atypical pitches – a cutter that has a net-zero movement profile, a sweeper with a lot of depth, and a change with less run and more drop than most – are above average. But when paired with his sinker that he throws as his primary fastball, he can be quite frustrating to face. Now. Can this success can continue as a more thorough book on how he attacks MLB hitters is developed? Can he be deployed in longer outings? I have my doubts about that. But he’s made it to the majors! He’s having success! Enjoy that, because he truly doesn’t have much of a ceiling for the hobby. Risk: 1 Ceiling: 3 Chrome Auto Only

Émilien Pitre, 22, 2B

The Rays’ 2nd Round pick last year from Quebec via University of Kentucky, Pitre is a high-floor utility type who really doesn’t have much in the way of hobby juice. The likliest scenario is that he ends up as a role-45 type with a long MLB career, but never sniffs an All-Star team or even 600 PA in an MLB season. He’s a contact hitter with a fantastic eye for the strike zone – he rarely chases. He stands in the box like a jitterbug with a lot of little movements pre-pitch, but he’s all business in the end. His swing is geared to be quick and line drive-oriented, but he hasn’t been perfect in his execution – first he struggled to find meaningful contact in wood bat leagues, and now has run a 25 K% in his first 14 games in High-A this year. The hit tool still has potential to be an above-average asset, but the learning curve is a bit steep at the moment. He’s not a power hitter at all, but he does have an ability to drive the ball to all fields so it’s possible he touches double digit HR. He has decent enough speed and is an aggressive runner, but it more plays to his range in the field. His arm isn’t great, which makes him a better fit for 2B long-term, though he’s also currently seeing some SS in Bowling Green. Pitre is more valuable for real life than the hobby by a fairly wide margin, and his risk/ceiling covers the hobby only. If you’re prospecting him as a Rays fan hoping to see him make the majors, he’s a tick to the positive in both categories. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both

Gregory Barrios, 21, SS

Acquired from the Brewers at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline for Aaron Civale, Barrios is a light hitting speedster that should have no problem sticking at shortstop. He makes a lot of contact, and swings at more than his fair share of pitches outside the zone because of his ability to make contact in and out of the zone (98th percentile zone contact and 85th percentile outside zone contact in 2024). With that amount of contact and the lack of power (just two home runs in three pro seasons), I expected to see a much higher ground ball rate, but he’s never had one above 44%. Throwing on the tape and you see Barrios hit a lot of weak flares that drop in front of outfielders. Gotta love minor league announcers almost always calling these line drives and regularly saying it sounded great off the bat. And I’ll guarantee you that of the 23 doubles he hit in 2024, at least a quarter of them were due to poor defense and his speed taking advantage of it. There’s going to be a fair bit of BABIP luck involved in how much playing time Barrios gets, because soft line drives aren’t going to consistently lead to positive results. When he is on base, he’s always looking to steal with his plus speed. That speed also translates well to his shortstop defense, and he’s got the arm to make the throw from deep in the hole as well as the athleticism to routinely make the highlight-reel bare-handed play. These types of profiles (plus speed/defense with tons of soft contact) end up finding some sort of MLB-relevancy, more-so than at other positions. But they don’t often translate to Hobby value and an undisclosed injury that has prevented him from playing so far as of writing won’t help that value. Risk: 6 Ceiling 3 Base

Texas Rangers

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Alejandro Rosario, 23, P

A huge riser in 2024, if not for the news that Rosario has a UCL tear and is expected to need elbow surgery back in February, he would have been considered the “best of the rest” of the pitching prospects in this product, and there could have been an argument for being potentially as good as Thomas White.  Strangely, as of writing, he has not yet had that surgery, with a report on April 7th that there is an undisclosed issue that is delaying that procedure. Putting that to the side, I’ll first give a hat tip to one half of the Dynasty Pickup gurus, Kyle Sonntag, for first putting Rosario on my radar back in early June of last season with his pickup recommendation. Then a hat tip to Josh Norris of Baseball America for almost at the same time posting this two minute clip of absolute filth coming from Rosario from behind the dish. It’s full of swing and miss on all his offerings, knee buckling breakers, and batters looking completely foolish with bats flying out of their hands at times. Rosario came out of the University of Miami with pretty much all of his prep hype gone, allowing the Rangers to take him in the 5th round of the 2023 MLB Draft. Texas then made some tweaks to his pitch mix and positioning on the mound, and it completely unlocked Rosario. He suddenly was striking hitters out at a 37% rate while holding the walk rate below 5%. His college numbers weren’t even close to that, which leads me to give out my third hat tip of this blurb to the Rangers pitching dev - this change is super impressive. Rosario is a bit on the smaller side for a starting pitcher at just 6’1” and 182 pounds, we only saw one year of dominance after three years of college mediocrity, and now we have an upcoming UCL surgery with some unknown complications. What should have been a Tier 2 pitcher with Tier 1 upside is now a Tier 3 pitcher until we get some sort of clarity on a murky future. Not having autos in the product further diminishes any sort of short term Hobby interest. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Base Only

Yeremi Cabrera, 19, OF

Apparently everyone has been spelling Cabrera’s name wrong for a few years and Topps didn’t get the correction, because he’s now listed as Yeremy. It’s important for hobby folks doing searches to acquire him (on eBay and such), because he’s quite relevant and should remain so for the foreseeable future. Cabrera comes from humble beginnings as a pro, signing for just 10k in 2022 and had a rough first season in the DSL. But he really broke through in 2023 and continued the breakout last year at the Complex, where he hit 9 HR and 23 total XBH while hitting over .300 and an OBP over .400. He stands tall in the box early in counts and there’s a lot of moving parts that includes a leg kick and a hip drop that helps him swing very hard. There’s a lot of effort there. Interestingly, with two strikes he ditches those things and looks completely different – he gets lower to start and only uses a toe tap. Just something to note moving forward, that eventually he’ll have enough strength where the upright stance won’t be necessary. He’s still very thin and has plenty of room to add muscle in his upper half, and when he does we’ll see exactly how much power he can get to in game, and how much he can dial back the effort in his swing and still get to it. From a hit tool perspective he’s raw. He’s very aggressive in the zone, and misses quite a bit. But he makes up for it with an above-average-for-his-age amount of discipline in not swinging outside the zone (but again, not a great contact rate when he does swing). That swing-and-miss really showed up when he was promoted to Low-A, and it’s looked like more of the same to start this year. The risk with Cabrera is still quite evident. Defensively he’s split time between all three OF positions, and as he fills out I’d expect him to land in a corner. His speed stands as above average right now with base-stealing acumen to match, but I can’t legislate whether that will stick as he matures. There’s a lot to like here but risk in equal measure. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7 Both

Malcolm Moore, 21, C

The Rangers first round pick at the end of the first round in the 2024 MLB Draft, Moore has the inside track at the moment as the Rangers primary backstop by 2027. There’s not another catcher in the org that cracked our Rangers Top 20 this April, and that’s the case pretty much anywhere you look. Moore isn’t a plus defender behind the plate, but he’s good enough that he should stick. Offensively, there’s a nice mix of hit and power. He’s sufficiently patient - in his 25 games in High-A after the draft, his o-swing was in the 65th percentile and his overall swing rate was just below league average at 46%. The zone contact was above average at 82%. The strikeout rate was a bit high at 28%, and in the small sample to start the season, it was even worse at 32%. And that’s what keeps his hit tool from being more than above average, even if I do appreciate he’s really simplified his load and swing. There used to be more of a rock back and then forward, and that backwards motion from his amateur days now looks to be gone. He’s got quite a bit of raw power, and his one home run in 2025 went out of the stadium in Spartanburg. Currently he isn’t taking ANY cheap swings - every time I think he might come out of his shoes. That’s typically going to hold a player back as they start to face more advanced pitching and that proclivity gets taken advantage of. If I saw a more advanced approach, I could see 2026 as a potential debut, but as currently constructed, I feel like it’s going to be a slower burn. It doesn’t help that he’s recently broken his finger and probably isn’t back in action until sometime in June. Prospect pedigree, a fairly clear path to an MLB starting role, and an above average set of hit and power tools are enough in Moore’s favor to be a Tier 3 player. Not someone I’d go out of my way for, but I wouldn’t mind having a few cards of the cheaper variety. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both

Tier None

Marcos Torres, 20, OF

If Topps had included Torres in a Bowman product after his debut 2022 DSL season, or maybe even his 2023 stateside debut, there could have been some Tier 3 type of intrigue as a power hitting corner outfielder. His 2024 returns, spent entirely at Single-A, were rough, to say the least. Pick your favorite stat and be prepared to be scared off - he struck out over 34% of the time, his zone contact rate was under 66% (4th percentile), had a whiff rate was almost 40% (8th percentile), and an o-swing rate over 30% (31st percentile). Even if there is good bat speed that leads to above average power and some stolen base speed potential, none of it matters if he can’t get on base. We like power-speed potential in the Hobby, but in this case, we can safely ignore it until the contact metrics get a LOT better. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Base Only

Winston Santos, 23, P

Hello small sample sizes! At the time of writing, Santos has started two games in 2025 and the numbers are a bit eye-popping, with a 48% K rate and a 39% K-BB rate. It’s sadly at Double-A, so no statcast data to rely on, but he has passed the eye test so far. Does that continue - no way, but it does foreshadow that he should be able to put up the 30% K rate that we saw him hold all the way through 2024. Santos was a big riser in 2024, and could continue that rise in 2025. He’ll need to develop the change-up, as it was mostly a mid to high 90’s fastball and his above average mid-80’s slider that I saw. His control may allow him to get away with his subpar change-up, but without that third pitch, the bullpen risk is pretty high, especially if he continues to give up home runs. Now, the context is that Santos is a fly ball pitcher, and the Rangers Double-A affiliate in Frisco is very home run friendly. I expect that it will be something that could keep his value a bit depressed. He’s also not quite the starter’s body that I want to see at just 6 feet tall. Ultimately it’s a mixed bag that most likely ends up as a back-end starter, but there are outcomes where he limits the home runs, develops the third pitch, and turns into a high strikeout middle of the rotation core starter. And it’s equally possible he ends up in the bullpen. I’m intrigued, but not enough yet to spend Hobby dollars. I’m going to watch closely over the next few months and see how the development trends here in a wait and see sort of mode. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both

Esteban Mejia, 20, SS

It’s a little bit backwards from a numbers perspective, but I think this is the better of our two Estebans in this product. After dominating the Complex for 35 games last year, he was sent to Single-A where he spent 50 games hitting .207. Not great. But it came with average contact numbers. It doesn’t show in his K%, as he showed his approach to be really raw and it stood in the high 20’s. But I think we can treat that with a grain of salt. Why? Well, first, he was young for the level, and second, he was deployed to High-A to begin this year. The organization trusts the progress he made in the offseason! Disappointingly, he really struggled out of the gate and has already been demoted to Single-A. From a tools perspective, everything is still coming together, but there’s potential that he grows into average hit and average power. Nothing he’ll do this year will resemble that though, and it’s possible he never develops. His speed is also already not great, which is why I’ve called him a 3B here – his days of playing some SS and 2B are numbered. Mejia is a complete dart throw that doesn’t have clear tools. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both

Cody Freeman, 24, 3B

It’s been nearly 6 years since the Rangers took Freeman in the 2019 MLB Draft, signed for an overslot 900k. Drafted as an undersized (5’8”) 3B, once he hit full-season ball in 2021 (thanks COVID) he was developed as a catcher/3B hybrid, which remained the case until 2024. I’m mentioning this because there was a lot of on-the-job learning at the catcher position, along with the physical demands, and that seems to have cost him quite a bit of offensive output through the years. It really showed last year, his first at exclusively a 3B. His XBH% jumped from 39 to 48 along with a 30 point jump in his batting average, all while moving up a level to AA. He’s always excelled at making contact and putting the ball into play (to the detriment of his BB%), so it was nice to see his quality of contact tick up so markedly. He also has a good understanding of the strike zone, rarely chasing pitches he can’t put into play. He has a very simple setup at the plate and a short stroke. He sits in a fairly deep crouch and gets in a good position to launch like a power hitter, but then he sinks his hands lower and lower as the pitch comes in, to the point where his swing plane is very flat. He can certainly punish pitches low in the zone with the best of them though. It’s not average power, though his hit could be above average to make up for it. What really kills his profile from becoming an everyday major leaguer is that he’s not a strong defender at third, and he’s quite slow on the basepaths. This thought is buoyed by his already exposed to the Rule V draft and not being selected. He is at AAA for the first time now, but unless he really strings together a hot month+, I can’t see the Rangers giving him a chance. He will get there eventually, but he’s already past an age where the hobby context would find him valuable. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 3 Both

David Hagaman, 22, P

Hagaman was drafted in the 4th Round last year out of West Virginia, earning near-slot money as he had two years of eligibility remaining. Don’t remember him pitching in the regional or super regional last year? Your memory serves you well, as he didn’t. He had internal brace surgery on his elbow in April. Before the injury he mostly worked as a reliever, but he will be developed as a starter when he returns to action later this year. Timeline for internal brace is around a year, so he should be on the mound now, and will probably be eased into games when the Complex league starts. There’s a lot of work to be done if he’s to make it as a starter, as he’s never really done it since finding his current velocity (three outings of 5+ innings). He’s been up to 97 in games, but not yet consistently. His fastball is a really good pitch, coming from his well-built 6’4” frame where he gets good extension. He also has a slider and change with solid potential. However, his command is quite lacking at present, even before the injury. To put a point on this, there was a 4-game stretch last year where he went 11 innings and walked 11 hitters and gave up 13 hits, including 5 of the extra base variety. Seems like a rough patch, right? Well, what if I told you one of those appearances was his best as a collegiate pitcher? He’s just very inconsistent. As a retail paper auto in this set, and with the Rangers intent on making him a developmental project as a starter, he’s very far from the hobby radar. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Paper Auto Only

David Ortiz Jr., 17, 1B

OK, so obviously this is a son of David Ortiz – one of two in this product. He signed as an IFA in August last year for $225k. There is, uh, not a lot to like about him if I’m treating him as a “normal” prospect headed to the DSL for the 2025 season. He’s not tall or projectable, and he carries a lot of bad weight (it’s less now than it has been though). It was painful watching him throw as a 14 year-old in a showcase video. I’m sure he’s made big strides since, but his athleticism remains a huge red flag. He looks like a shorter version of his dad with less muscle. Video on Ortiz is limited to some BP and drills, so please take the following with a grain of salt. He’s worked to become more dynamic and athletic in the box (and having his dad there is a huge help). However, he started from almost nothing, and still doesn’t get into his back hip well or get wide enough to get into what I would project as real power. Still only 17, there’s time. But he definitely has a limited defensive profile and the massive spectre of looking physically like his dad to contend with. He should have some intrigue because of his name, but I really think we won’t be hearing much from him as a pro. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1-3 Base Only

Jesus Lopez, 19, C

Signed for $350k from Venezuela in 2022, Lopez immediately went out and proved there was some juice to his defensive game, throwing out 40% of runners in the DSL. Unfortunately, that part of his game has not advanced at all, and he’s really struggled defensively since reaching full-season ball. His offensive skillset has also never shown to be more than fringe-average. He has some raw power and a high-handed, upright setup that befits it. But his swing is a mess – he doesn’t stay balanced well and while he whips his bat into the zone with a good plane, he often doesn’t finish his swing, really just trying to punch line drives into the outfield without truly driving the ball. His approach is also a complete mess, and he has no plate discipline. He swung at just 62% of balls in the zone (32nd% for Single-A), and 36% of balls outside the zone (13th%). Now, this can be chalked up to being raw, sure. But look at the complete picture – he’s a defensively-sliding catching prospect that’s a bottom-of-the-scale runner and has a long, long way to go as a hitter. I can’t hit the pass button fast enough on a player like this. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2 Base Only

Garret Horn, 22, P

Horn was drafted in the 6th Round by the Rangers last year from Liberty, where he only appeared in 4 games in his Junior season because of an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in April. He’s also already on the full-season injured list this year, so his debut in competitive pro games will not be until 2026, at age 23. Not great already hobby-wise, and I haven’t even told you anything about his mound skills or that he’s a paper-only auto subject. Many of you probably stopped reading there – but there are some skills to like. It’s mostly his fastball, which plays well as a lefty with ride up in the zone. He works in the 92-94 MMPH range with it. He also hides the ball very well, so while his secondaries aren’t great from a shape perspective, he gets a lot of whiff altogether. His command, even pre-injury, was a tick in the negative column. His overall performance as a freshman was great, but he still walked over 4 batters per 9 innings. That backed way up to over 6 batters per 9 in his sophomore campaign. Paired with considerable effort in his delivery, he really looks like a future reliever to me – and a raw one at that. He’s simply not at all a hobby name to consider, and has quite a low ceiling. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2 Paper Auto Only

Toronto Blue Jays

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

None

Tier None

Charles McAdoo, 23, RB

A 13th round pick of the Pirates in the 2023 MLB Draft, McAdoo opened some eyes in 2024 with his top line results, especially the 17 home runs. A double digit walk rate, and an acceptable mid-20’s K rate also looked promising. Digging a bit deeper, and you could see that McAdoo may have had some BABIP luck in his favor, because the contact metrics sure didn’t back that up. And once he ended up in Toronto, the results at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 have been particularly poor. Even a .324 BABIP so far in 2025 can’t get him above the Mendoza Line. In 2024, his zone contact rate was in the 22nd percentile, while his whiff rate was equally bad, putting him in the 24th percentile. The power is real, though. He can put the ball out to the opposite field just as easily as he can to the pull side. He’s also shown good base stealing acumen, even if his speed is probably above average for now and potentially drifts down to average as he matures. Defensively, the fielding needs work. In 2025, the Blue Jays primarily have him at third base, but have also given him reps at second and first as well. He’s also taken outfield reps, but mostly while with the Pirates - he just has two games out there in 2024 with the Blue Jays org. The hit tool is what we need to continue to track with McAdoo - it’s got a long way to go, and with him already at Double-A, he doesn’t have many more stops to go before he’s going to be considered for the MLB roster. In the Hobby, we tend to fall out of love with players who spend too long at a level, who take too long to get to the MLB, especially when they are one or two stops away. With McAdoo’s hit tool issues, this feels like a likely scenario. If you’re in on McAdoo long term, you hope he ends up similar to a Jesús Sánchez offensive profile. If you’re in on him in the short term, you hope that he finds his way to a debut sooner rather than later and has a Rece Hinds type of explosion so you can flip his cards. With his lack of a defensive home, and the growing hit tool concerns, I’d rather not bank on either of the above types of scenarios and sell to those people who are. If he’s Jesús Sánchez, he’s a Tier 3 type of ranking, but if he’s more Rece Hinds (but can take a few more walks), then it’s a Tier None ranking. I lean more towards the Hinds outcome. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6 Both

Sean Keys, 21, 3B

When one looks at Keys with his thicker lower half and 6’2” frame, the idea of a power-hitting 3B immediately comes to mind. However, while he may get to average or better power, that’s not what had him drafted in the 4th Round last year – it’s contact and approach. The Patriot League isn’t great competition but Keys stuck out only 26 times (to 35 BB) for Bucknell in his Junior season. Pair that with his debut at Low-A last year where he ran a .378 OBP, and yep, that’ll play! He’s above average at not chasing outside the zone and above average at making contact within the zone – should he progress as anticipated, that makes the ceiling of his hit tool…above average. His raw power will always outstrip what he shows in game because of that approach, but it’s nice that he has some juice in the tank. Now, he is a plodder on the bases, and he’ll have to work to stick as a 3B. That’s a considerable negative – that makes it such that he has no plus attributes. There’s a path to the majors, but there’s work to be done to project as better than a backup corner IF. Unless he surprisingly starts hitting a bunch of bombs this summer, I don’t think he’ll be all that desirable from a hobby standpoint. He’s a Tier None with upward mobility to Tier 3. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both

Washington Nationals

Tier 1

None

Tier 2

None

Tier 3

Caleb Lomavita, 22, C

The Nationals Comp Round A pick at 39th overall, Lomavita was one of the three college catchers that was considered as the top tier for that position in the draft. Walter Janek and Malcolm Moore ended up going before Lomavita, but it really seemed like all of them have similar floor and ceiling profiles. Lomavita not being in the top 30 picks does put a slight ding in his prospect pedigree although it’s probably not something that has much of a long term impact on his Hobby value. The reports of his athleticism match up with the video - he has more than the expected speed on the basepaths and moves fairly well behind the dish and chasing down foul pop-ups. I didn’t see much finesse with framing, and while his arm was accurate, there were a few throws I wasn’t sure I saw the reported above average arm strength. However, early season baseball in the cold northeast could easily be to blame there. Offensively, at times he showed a good eye, and at other times he would expand the zone too much, especially when he was ahead in the count. I saw way too many ground balls, even if it looks like his swing is more often an uppercut than the flat swing that tends to lead to lower launch angles. The athleticism could lead to more of an Austin Barnes style scenario, with Lomavita splitting time behind the dish and giving regular starters a breather at second base and corner outfield. If Lomavita can fine tune his offensive approach to produce more in game power, keeping the ball off the ground so much, there is everyday regular potential. In the short term, the decent draft pedigree and favorable pre-draft reports likely give him Tier 3 juice. There’s enough raw clay to justify that ranking as well, but until we get some in-game power showing up in the pro ranks, I’d wait to put any money in this bucket. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both

Tier None

Carlos Tavares, 19, 1B

After showing decent line drive contact skills at the DSL in 2023 and the Complex in 2024, the brief introduction so far for Tavares at Single-A in 2025 has been rough, driven by a 42% K rate as of writing. It doesn’t help that he’s not getting any sort of consistent playing time as he struggles to figure out Single-A pitchers. If I had written this back in 2024, I probably would have been tempted to rank Tavares in Tier 3 with a sort of high average, good first base defense profile. Sort of similar to Yandy Diaz type of results, even if it’s a different profile (line drives rather than the patented Yandy ground balls). At the moment, he looks lost in the box, and I have a feeling it’s going to take a while for him to find his groove and become Hobby relevant. Lacking in game power to this point, that relevancy is going to be even harder to attain, especially with just base cards in the product, and we can safely find other places to spend. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Base Only

Credit to TJStats for many of the rate stats we quote throughout the article