Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
Despite an 87-75 record, the Astros missed the playoffs (3 GB in the AL West, lost the tiebreaker in the AL WC) for the first time since 2016. The Astros’ accomplishments included 2 World Series Championships, 4 AL Pennants, and 7 AL West division titles; trash cans or not, this was a truly remarkable run.
The lineup is a shell of its former self despite some familiar names. Yordan Alvarez is still the focal point of the offensive attack, and when he’s healthy and producing, he’s among the best pure hitters in baseball. When he’s not healthy, which is more often than you would like for a DH, he creates a void in the lineup that cannot be replaced. Jose Altuve is a future Hall of Famer who continues to produce at a level far above his 5’6 listing. Carlos Correa rejoins a group with which he enjoyed a lot of success prior to leaving for free agency. This middle infield pairing began playing together in 2015! The losses of big names like Bregman, Springer, and Tucker drop this offense from one of the most feared in the game to a middle-of-the-pack type attack. The Astros have supplemented their lineup with veteran hitters like Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes to plug the holes in the dam. After these names, there are a whole bunch of talented players who have yet to consistently deliver on their promise. Yainer Diaz, Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Shay Whitcomb, Jacob Melton, and Zach Dezenzo have each shown varying degrees of success at the big league level and will need to be more consistent to increase their value and contribute to the team's overall success.
Hunter Brown stepped up and became the ace everyone was hoping he could be. He was a top 5 pitcher in the game all season. The great part for the Astros is that he can still get even better. The problem is that he will most likely be doing this alone moving forward, since co-ace Framber Valdez has left via free agency. Pitchers coming back from injury, like Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, and Ronel Blanco, will play a huge role in whether this team can get back to the playoffs next season. This team could go out and buy a free agent starter or two, or they could rely on their in-house options, some of whom have debuted already, and some who have not (more on that in a minute); Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski, and Colton Gordon could have significant roles in 2026 and beyond. This bullpen remains very good with Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu locking down the 8th and 9th.
This farm system lacks the real star power and depth to turn heads, but there could be some gems hidden deeper down. Recent draft picks like Xavier Neyens, Walker Janek, Ethan Frey, and Joseph Sullivan will need to carry the load for now as we enter a new phase of Astros baseball. This team has been extremely successful in the International market, and players like Kevin Alvarez and Luis Baez will look to provide big league value at some point. The pitching is interesting, but there aren’t any top of the rotation type arms in the system at this time. Anderson Brito, Miguel Ullola, and Jose Fleury all look like big league arms, but how do they fit into the pitching puzzle? Time will tell.
The playoff aspirations of this team depend on if any of the younger players can take steps forward, especially since the veterans of the World Series teams are starting to get a little long in the tooth. They could continue to be a winning team, but they could also take a step back, which might necessitate a re-tool or even re-build.
Dynasty Buys
Cam Smith
Just like we all drew it up last summer, the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2024 made the Astros’ Opening Day 2025 roster. Wait, what? I imagine several of you remember Smith’s torrid pace through May and June 2025 and his candidacy for AL Rookie of the Year; Smith’s fantasy managers will also certainly recall his July, in which his average and on-base percentages cratered after the All-Star Break and left him without a set job heading into Spring Training 2026. Smith’s tools earned him a first-round selection and an Opening Day ’25 spot, as well as carried him to a strong early summer; the same tools may make him a valuable fantasy contributor in the future, but some managers may already be burnt out on his stop-start act. I’d pounce if they’re giving you an opportunity.
A.J. Blubaugh
Let’s not get it twisted – A.J. Blubaugh is far from a consistent strikeout machine, but he impressed in his first taste of Major League Baseball, appearing in 11 contests and starting three after an April callup and then another in late August, which spanned September. More often than not, Blubaugh will restrict the free passes and is not especially homer-prone, meaning he could be an inoffensive back-end starting pitching prospect who could bless you with a six-strikeout game every so often. The price is currently really low, and this could be a sneaky, cheap addition for savvy managers.
Dynasty Sells
Carlos Correa
Tom was wise to note Correa’s increased comfort “home” in Houston, pointing out the jump in his slugging percentage and nearly reaching his homer total for the year in Minnesota despite 150 fewer PA. The plot armour is strong for Correa to rebound to something close to his career averages now that he has returned to the Astros, meaning I feel his value might have seen a slight bump upward – if you’ve held on to him looking for a value pocket in which to sell, I think now is the time to market Correa to a contender. You may miss out on a solid season and a half, but the contract will only hold Correa in Houston for another few seasons, and his contributions may be more “steady” than “spectacular” moving forward.
Brice Matthews
Heading into his age-24 season, Brice Matthews does not have a set role with the big-league Astros; this is not for a lack of trying, though – Matthews showed off his huge raw power in a 13-game sample size with Houston, posting a .286 ISO and smacking four home runs in just 47 plate appearances. Unfortunately, pitchers preyed on Matthews’ eagerness to let the power eat, and he struck out nearly 43% of the time. The power is REALLY here, as it portended 17 HR at Triple-A, but Matthews also swiped 41 bags at the level, too. This is another, like Correa, where your window and belief in the profile dictate the value – if you’re buying or trying to contend, I would try to move Matthews as a package for an elite hitter or pitcher on the value of his upside, while his potential still speaks for itself. If he cannot materialise at-bats in Houston, I fear he may be left as a Quad-A superstar, though this could also look ridiculous in a year’s time, too.
Top Fantasy Prospects
Players are in order of their fantasy prospect ranking from our September end of season list.
Matthews started off 2025 in Triple-A, having received a twelve-game stint at the level the year before, and looked exactly as advertised: good power, great speed, and a questionable hit tool. The former first-rounder crushed 17 home runs and swiped 41 bags on the season in the minors, albeit with a 35.1% whiff rate and a zone-contact rate of just 74.1%. Matthews did get a taste of the majors as well, featuring in 13 games over two short stays with Houston in July and September, and delivered more of the same. The 23-year-old hit four home runs in only 47 at-bats in the big leagues, but hit just .167 and struck out at an alarming 42.6% clip. With Jose Altuve’s career winding down, Matthews should see plenty of playing time at second base for the Astros in 2026, though he is not a lock to break camp with the team. Having posted excellent walk-rates at every stop prior to his MLB debut, Matthews also has the potential to become a solid contributor of counting stats with a decent OBP at the keystone long-term. Whether he will make enough contact to reach that ceiling remains a question mark. For now, he heads into next season as a top-150 prospect. - Lucas Morel
Melton was on track to claim a spot as a depth outfielder with the Astros this year, but a lengthy stay on the IL derailed those plans. If he’s healthy, 2026 should offer another opportunity as Houston continues searching for someone to solidify that role. When he’s right, Melton brings both speed and power. His bat path isn’t at a desirable angle yet, so there may still be some untapped upside. He’s strong, athletic, and fast, and while there are some concerns with his hit tool, he has the type of profile that can make up for it through counting stats. He’s also a plus defender, which should help keep him on the field. It turned out to be a lost year, but he remains an intriguing prospect on the cusp of Major League playing time, currently sitting just outside the top 200. - Tom Gates
The Astros took Neyens off the board 21st-overall in this past summer’s draft, giving him $4.12 million to lure him away from an Oregon State commitment, and in doing so, they secured some of the biggest power in the class. The 19-year-old stands at 6’4, 210 lbs., and has been known to absolutely obliterate baseballs with his left-handed swing, posting exit velocities above 110 mph already. His plus-grade throwing arm and taller frame will likely push Neyens over to third base eventually, though Houston announced him as a shortstop on draft day, so he may get a look there to begin his professional career. The Washingtonian will need to work to improve his contact skills and limit whiffs as he moves up the ladder, but his fantasy upside is unquestionable. Neyens should go in the first two rounds in FYPDs this offseason, and stands as a top-150 prospect overall. - Lucas Morel
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Director of Amateur Scouting, proud to lead and share the team's work. | Check out Path to the Show on Bally Sports Live and College Baseball Now everywhere! | Grateful for family, the Vols, and everyone who reads Prospects Live. | For His Glory.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
A Giants fan living in San Diego, been playing fantasy baseball since 2005 and dynasty since 2021. Started the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast in June 2023 and joined Prospects Live in March of 2024.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Director of Amateur Scouting, proud to lead and share the team's work. | Check out Path to the Show on Bally Sports Live and College Baseball Now everywhere! | Grateful for family, the Vols, and everyone who reads Prospects Live. | For His Glory.
