I go through emotional phases when I’m working on my rankings. I start out excited, thinking about who to rank higher—Walcott or Jenkins (it’s Jenkins, by the way). I feel happy and relieved when the top prospects are performing well, because it gives me confidence in my rankings.

Then I move past the first couple of top tiers and hit “my favorites.” These are the guys I regard higher than most. Joshua Baez is one of them. I thought Emil Morales was too, but apparently not. Drew is the high guy there.

Once I get to the bottom of the Top 100, my mood shifts. I start to feel hesitant. There are things I like about these players, but there are also plenty of ways it could go wrong. Robert Calaz—will he hit enough home runs to be fantasy relevant? Zac Veen—can he really make it work in the majors? Cole Carrigg—OK, what’s with all these Rockies?

3 Up, 3 Down - Prospects Live
Prospects LiveTom Gates

Moving into the 100s, I see a lot of arms. Talented ones, with upside. But there are consistency issues or injury risks hanging over them. If it all clicks, though, some of these pitchers could climb into the Top 50.

By the time I’m working my way down the list, the excitement naturally fades. Still, right before the 200 range, I find a few names I really like. Aron Estrada, Cris Rodriguez, and Walker Janek are some of my favorites there—guys I could see steadily creeping up the ranks.

Then, the grind starts. Outside the top 200, there are some prospects that I really like, but the list is scattered with players who have piqued my interest occasionally but not consistently. Jose Anderson is one of them.

Moving down into the late 200s, it’s players that I know have potential, but I’m still waiting for it. Eriq Swan, Yordanny Monegro, and Jaden Hamm. They’ve got the talent, just not unleashing it yet. Monegro has been on the shelf for a while, which is part of the reason for the ranking drop.

Outside the top 300…it gets messy. It’s a mix of very young players, mostly hitters who have a ways to go and prospects who were once given positive reports but haven’t done much. The toughest portion of the rankings.

🔥 3 Up

Joshua Baez, OF STL (Double-A)

.287/.383/.492, 17 HR, 48 SB, 12% BB, 21% K

July rank: 94th consensus, 61st personal

New rank: 34th personal

Why the bump?

Since July 23rd, Baez has played 29 games and put up the classic 3/4/5 slash line:

  • .306 BA
  • .403 OBP
  • .520 SLG

He’s also swiped 13 bases in that stretch and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts.

Baez passes the eye test. His home runs aren’t cheap shots, and while he’s not strictly a lift-and-pull hitter, when he does pull the ball, the launch angle is ideal. His ground-ball rate is only 32%, his pull rate 40%, and his 16% HR/FB ratio shows that when he elevates, the ball travels a long way.

There’s top-10 potential here if it all clicks. Preseason reports (outside of Prospects Live) labeled him a below-average hitter with plus power and average speed, but he’s proving to be better than that. The hit tool is still questionable as he swings at 37% of pitches out of the zone and makes in-zone contact less than 80% of the time, but his hard contact and double-digit walk rates help offset that.