As the 2025 MLB Draft quickly approaches, the Prospects Live team wants to make your life as easy as possible. In this series of articles, I'll be providing team-by-team analysis of their recent draft trends, their available draft capital for 2025, any areas of the draft they've heavily targeted, as well as a few names in this year's class that might fit into their historically preferred archetype.
Max Ellingsen
This analysis isn't sourced for the upcoming year, nor is it a guarantee the organization won't pivot from what they've done in the past. Simply put, this article aims to provide an in-depth look at teams and their recent draft classes to try and decipher trends that could help uncover players your favorite team might be targeting. It's far from a perfect science, but I've done my job if it makes things easier to follow on draft day.
St. Louis Cardinals
- 2025 Bonus Pool Value - $14,238,300 (8th)
- Top 100 selections - 5, 55, 72, 89
The Cardinals have the most ammunition within their division this 2025 draft cycle, possessing four top one hundred selections and a healthy bonus pool thanks to some fortunate lottery luck this past winter. With a crop of prospects that’s relatively close to average leaguewide, the Cardinals have a golden opportunity to augment their system and infuse it with some dynamic talent in the top of their system. With as murky as the top of this class is, the Cardinals are well positioned to land a premium prospect in this class, potentially reaping the rewards of teams in front of them cutting a deal to save some cash for later.
2024 Draft Overview
Granted the seventh overall pick of 2024, the Cardinals landed one of the prized college bats of this class in West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt ($80,000 overslot), an excellent contact hitter that showed strides defensively and has surprising pop for his size. They followed up with third rounder Brian Holiday ($165,000 underslot), an undersized hurler that had some helium late in the season and featured a good blend of stuff and pitchability. They followed with ASU catcher Ryan Campos (slot), lefty pitcher Braden Davis (slot), Cincinnati catcher Josh Kross (slot), and righty hurler Andrew Dutkanych IV ($10,000 overslot), ultimately going for college players that have a bit more floor to their profile. This draft was incredibly conservative for the Cards. St. Louis did not sign a single prep player in this entire class, instead opting for a strange hybrid of dispersing their money around for slightly better mid-tier players. Jon Jon Gazdar ($100,000 overslot) and Jack Findlay ($170,000 overslot) were interesting prospects, but if those are the players you’re splurging the most on, I think your class lacks vision.
2023 Draft Overview
This time picking later in the first round, St. Louis went with the biggest riser in the 2023 class in Arizona outfielder Chase Davis (slot). The corner outfielder showed monster progression year over year and played his way into the first round, posting huge EV’s and good athleticism. Third and fourth rounders Travis Honeyman ($60,000 underslot) and Quinn Mathews ($60,000 overslot) have worked out marvelously thus far, with Matthew in particular transforming himself into one of the more promising pitching prospects in all of baseball. Fifth rounder Zach Levenson (slot) had some good metrics for Miami and eighth round Ixan Henderson ($35,000 overslot) has been an absolute steal to start his career. It was another class that did not involve a single prep player, however this class felt more ambitious than the 2024 class. Not by much, but definitely a noticeable amount. Obviously this class has worked out beautifully for St. Louis in the long run, though I’m sure there’s some level of remorse with their first rounder.
2022 Draft Overview
Picking in a similar spot to 2023, St. Louis went with funky left hander out of Oregon State Cooper Hjerpe (slot) with their first selection, a pitcher who had supremely unique release traits that made his fastball pop. San Diego lefty Brycen Mautz ($150,000 underslot) followed in the second while Pete Hansen (slot), Jimmy Crooks (slot), and Victor Scott II (slot) rounded out the first five rounds. Their biggest swing of the draft came in the sixth round, scooping up sophomore eligible hurler Max Rajcic ($330,000 overslot) out of UCLA. This was another great class for St. Louis that landed several of their more promising young players in non-premium rounds, a huge testament to their scouting and analytic departments. They again did not sign a high schooler in this class, but if you can hit on this many players on a year to year basis, it might not matter all that much. Again, not a ton of ceiling here, but there’s enough floor here to make it worth it.
Early Round Demographics
It’s abundantly apparent the Cardinals do not love taking prep players, whether that’s early or ever. What they do look for, however, are players that post excellent EV’s, contact rates, and swing decisions. St. Louis comes off as a team that’s heavily influenced by their internal draft model, and they’ve been able to use it to find some really nice players later in the draft because of it. The strategy for the Cardinals, at least from my vantage point, is to select as many collegiate players as they can that have an interesting blend of bat to ball skills and natural pop, then ultimately hope to develop them into potential MLB regulars. They haven’t taken a “superstar swing” in years and though it’s landed them a ton of quality pieces, none of them are necessarily transformative for their roster. I’d expect them to continue on the college side of things for this draft, and because they’re comfortable taking an arm early, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they nabbed one of the premiere lefties in this class.
Late Round Demographics
Though boring, it’s really not all that much different than their philosophy at the top. They tend to spread more money into intriguing junior and senior signs than most teams, frequently spending $200K or more on players outside of the top ten rounds, though a few hundred thousand in the later rounds really doesn’t change much in the grand scheme of things. This usually results in some fun names that can turn into sleeper prospects as they develop, but it certainly makes it harder as a fan to root for. It’s not a splashy strategy, but it can definitely pay off with a good development system in place.
Names to Know
Jamie Arnold, Florida State LHP - One of the best college arms in this class, everything about Arnold is unique. A side slinging release with a killer fastball and wipeout slider could make him St. Louis’ prime target.
Aiva Arquette, Oregon State SS - If they decide to go with a bat, Arquette would be an obvious fit for the redbirds. It’s not clear where Arquette is going to land as of now, but if he gets to five, I’d imagine he’ll be in consideration.
Kade Anderson, LSU LHP - This is looking more and more like a pipe dream as the playoffs roll on, but this is a perfect fit for the Cardinals. With a great combination of stuff and pitchability from the left side, he checks every box you look for in a college arm.
Discussion