We're back with regular season coverage and that starts with Opening Day! Not sure if I've personally been more excited for a season to get going, simply because of what's going on here at Prospects Live. If you don't know us, you can read about everything we do here.
What a start to the season! It would have been perfect if someone at the MLB TV headquarters hadn't accidently unplugged the service for significant portions of the day.
We had ace outings, we had double dongs, we had platinum sombreros, we had debuts, we had the Yankees short porch, we had everything. MacKenzie Gore registered the best start of his career, Tyler Soderstrom went deep twice in the evening slate and the White Sox are above .500 for the first time since Shohei Ohtani was still putting up Tungston Arm O'Doyle stats for the Angels.
Major League Baseball
Covered by Smada
Austin Wells, C NYY (MLB)
1-for-3, HR, R, RBI, BB, K
The first home run of the season goes to the New York's leadoff catcher as he cleared one over the short porch in Yankee Stadium. It would have been a home run in just 1 of 30 stadiums and Wells just happened to be in the right park at the right time. It all counts just the same and marks.
Anthony Volpe, SS NYY (MLB)
1-for-4, HR, R, RBI, K
Both Volpe and Austin Wells took advantage of the Yankees' short porch early. At least this one was a homer in 9 of 30 parks vs. the 1 of 30 for Wells. Volpe's stock certainly took a hit after he was dropped to the latter half of the order last year and only hit 12 HR in 689 PA with an 86 wRC+. This is certainly a nice start to his season, but I won't get overly excited until I see a larger sample of work from him.
Ben Rice, DH NYY (MLB)
1-for-2, R, BB, K
Not a huge game for Rice, but wanted to highlight him as a path has clearly been forged for him to have a significant role on this team. Giancarlo Stanton is slated to miss an extended amount of time and DJ LeMahieu can't seem to stay healthy either. Roster Resource has Rice platooning the DH role but it's entirely possible he'll hit his way into every day lineup spot. It was well recorded that Ben Rice set new Max EVs during an impact spring and he's drawn praise from the clubhouse. He's firmly a buy candidate here at expected cost, especially given he's hitting out of the 8-hole and is likely to sit some in the early going against LHP.
Luke Weaver, RHP NYY (MLB)
1 IP, BB, 2 K
Devin Williams, RHP NYY (MLB)
1 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 2 K
The high-leverage guys came in as Tim Hill, Mark Leiter Jr. and Luke Weaver all got holds with pretty clean work. Then Devin Williams' Yankees debut comes against his old squad and things got a bit dicey. The bases ended up loaded and Williams relinquished a run, but he closed it down with back to back swinging Ks against Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich. It's nice to see that Weaver is viewed as the clear 8th inning guy behind Williams who dealt with back issues last year.
Vinny Capra, 3B MIL (MLB)
1-for-3, HR, R, RBI, K
That's the 1st career HR for the journeyman utility infielder! Capra had a very strong spring, mashing 6 HR to earn a roster spot. Roster Resource has him on the short side of a platoon with Oliver Dunn at 3B. While Capra did get a PA against the RHP Leiter Jr. in the 7th, he was pinch hit for in the 9th.
Jackson Chourio, LF-RF MIL (MLB)
0-for-5, 5 K
Welp, not everyone is going to start the season on a high note. But a platinum sombrero is as bad as it can be. No concern over Chourio long term, just remember today if you're looking up his stats in 2 weeks and wondering why his K% is elevated.
Adley Rutschman, C BAL (MLB)
3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, K
Adley opened the scoring in Toronto demolishing a changeup from Jose Berrios that traveled 436 ft. Then in the 8th, he blasted one against Yariel Rodriguez. Last season Rutschman had a tale of two halves with a 123 wRC+ before the All-Star break and a 70 wRC+ after. While he was never officially put on the IL nor had a noticeable injury he played through, there were reports of seasonal wear and tear being the reason for the drop off. It's always a great game when you double dong, but the question that needs to be answered is how often he'll play. Will it be the everyday 687 PA season he had in 2023 or the 575 PA pace he was on in the 2nd half of 2024?
Tyler O'Neill, RF BAL (MLB)
3-for-3, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB
SIX consecutive Opening Days with a homer? A crazy stat that likely won't be a record we see broken in our lifetime. This was an elite stat line with the double dong and two walks. I'm sure Baltimore fans loved seeing their Anthony Santander replacement debut like this. I became a bit of an O'Neill fan in fantasy this offseason after he signed with the Orioles as I picked him up in a dynasty redistribution draft and a couple of redraft leagues. The health has always been an issue, but when he's healthy he mashes.
Jose Berrios, RHP TOR (MLB)
5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 3 HR
The first rough start of the year goes to Berrios who gave up 3 HR to the Orioles lineup that was absent Gunnar Henderson. The last two seasons Berrios has outperformed his peripherals (3.63 to 4.36 FIP) and is consistently a pitcher who doesn't project well. Home runs have always been an issue and Berrios can be prone to these types of outings. On a positive note, he got through 5 innings, still put up 5 K and his velo was stable. Just one of the reasons he's averaged 186 IP a season over the last 4 years.
MacKenzie Gore, SP WSN (MLB)
6 IP, 1 H, 13 K
Simply an incredible start for MacKenzie Gore. If you haven't seen the stat, he joined Bob Gibson as the only pitcher on Opening Day to strikeout at least 13 without giving up a run or a walk. He had the entire pitch mix working as he ran a 40% whiff and the slider registered a 61% CSW. It's no surprise this is the highest game score his career, but he's also had his fair share of dominate starts over the last three years with 7 double digit strike out outings. The key for Gore this season is consistency, and if he can limit the starts where he shows a complete lack of control he'll take the next step as a legitimate reliable SP.
Dylan Crews, RF WSN (MLB)
0-for-3, R, BB, SB
Maybe it's because I just didn't pay close attention to it in the past, but I was slightly surprised to see Crews batting 8th in this lineup. It'll be pretty simple though. If he hits, he'll move up, so I'm not overly concerned about the spot. The Nationals showed us in game 1 that they are not going to be afraid to be aggressive on the basepaths again this year. Crews, Jared Young and Luis Garcia Jr. all stole bases, taking advantage of Jared Romano.
Orion Kerkering, RHP PHI (MLB)
IP, 2 H, K
Jordan Romano, RHP PHI (MLB)
IP, H, 2 ER, BB, K
Jose Alvarado, LHP PHI (MLB)
IP, 2 K
Matt Strahm, LHP PHI (MLB)
IP, K
The Phillies bullpen was another question mark this offseason. They signed Jordan Romano after he was non-tendered by Toronto and they lost Jeff Hoffman to Toronto as a free agent. The last few year's they've been a team that hasn't stuck with a set closer for a full season, and my guess is that'll continue in 2025. Kerkering came in the the 7th, relieving a great start by Zack Wheeler, Romano then gave up the lead in the 8th and then Alvarado came in during the tied 9th inning. Matt Strahm who is solid in his own right came in with a shut down 10th inning. Right now I'd pencil in Alvarado as the go-to closer as he got the 9th here and his velo is back to career highs.
Cam Smith, RF HOU (MLB)
1-for-3
What a wild ride for Cam Smith who enjoyed his big league debut at a new position on Opening Day. He earned his first career hit off Clay Holmes, a 104.8 mph ground ball through the right side. Chas McCormick came in as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning and I wouldn't be surprised as we continue to see that in close games this season.
Clay Holmes, RHP NYM (MLB)
4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
There was a lot of noise around the Clay Holmes RP to SP conversion and his new kick-change in spring training. Oddly he only threw that new changeup four times in the opener. One start doesn't silence the noise, but it's a reminder that the game is different once it counts. For fantasy, might be worth checking on a Holmes manager to see if they've soured after just one start.
Garrett Crochet, LHP BOS (MLB)
5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
While this wasn't the typical strikeout dominating start we saw in 2024 and spring, Crochet turned over a solid Opening Day start. In high-stakes redraft leagues he ended up getting pushed up to the late 1st round as a 2nd tier option behind Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. We had him ranked 24th in our dynasty ranks as SP3 heading into the season. Here is out top 10:
Kristian Campbell, 2B BOS (MLB)
1-for-3, BB, K
In Campbell's MLB debut he managed a 9th inning single off Luke Jackson, a 102 mph EV hit that couldn't be handled by Josh Jung at 3B. Campbell's swing speed was the 2nd highest among batted balls in the game and across baseball he had the 9th highest Avg. Bat Speed among the 183 players with 10 swings yesterday. The hype is real and he's got as good a chance as anyone to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Wilyer Abreu, RF BOS (MLB)
3-for-3, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB
/ how did I miss a Wilyer double dong in the initial writeup??
My oh my Wilyer Abreu! HR #1 came off the bat at 108.7 EV, the second at 110.7 EV and he had a single earlier in the game at 110.8 EV. We know he can rake, but unfortunately that raking only comes against RHP. Could he shed the platoon? Anything is possible, but at this day and time, unlikely. He's only seen 78 PA against LHP in MLB with just 1 HR a .524 OPS. It's a small sample, but his AA & AAA splits, while not quite as bad, show a similar trend. Prime Joc Pederson is about as much dreaming as I'd do right now.
Garrett Whitlock, RHP BOS (MLB)
2 IP, H, K
Aroldis Chapman, LHP BOS (MLB)
IP, H, K
Justin Slaten, RHP BOS (MLB)
IP, K, SV
The Red Sox bullpen was pretty wide open all offseason with very little commitment to who would be closing out games. By the end of spring, Chapman had struck out 14 batters in 7.1 IP and seemed to be given the role. Liam Hendriks had a rough spring and was placed on the IL with a compressed nerve in his elbow on Opening Day. Justin Slaten had an excellent season in 2024 with a 2.93 ERA that was backed by all the estimators, 25.9% K, and just 4.0% BB over 55.1 IP. Then you have Garrett Whitlock hanging around as a dark horse who registered 2 clean IP here. In this one, Chapman took the 8th inning in a tied game against the middle of the Rangers lineup. Slaten then came in to close out the game after the Red Sox took the game in the 9th inning. The presumption is that this is still Chapman's job, but it's clear that they trust Slaten to close out games. Given Aroldis' tendency to fall into walk issues it wouldn't be surprising for him to give up that lose hold on the closer role.
Robert Garcia, LHP TEX (MLB)
0.2 IP, 2 BB
Chris Martin, RHP TEX (MLB)
1.1 IP, H, 2 K
Luke Jackson, RHP TEX (MLB)
0.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, BB, K, HR
The Rangers bullpen situation has been full of intrigue. They traded for Robert Garcia then quickly signed Chris Martin in the middle of the offseason. After they opted not to re-sign still FA David Robertson or another high leverage quality arm, Martin was the presumed closer. Then Luke Jackson shows up out of nowhere, has a great spring, and appears to potentially get the first nod at closing out games! Well, we got to see the bridge in full swing here as Garcia came in for the 7th, Martin cleaned up the 7th and pitched the 8th, then Jackson imploded in the 9th in a tied game situation. Jackson K'd Triston Casas, had a 9 pitch BB to Trevor Story then allowed a hard hit single to Kristian Campbell before allowing the go-ahead 3-run jack to Wilyer Abreu.
I still lean towards Chris Martin being the long term answer at closer unless they end up signing David Robertson in-season. Garcia is a lefty with multiple arbitration years left and Jackson's skills are too borderline to rely on in the closer role. He doesn't run a high enough K% to make up for the 10% BB. Meanwhile from 2022-2024, Chris Martin has run the lowest xFIP in MLB among pitchers with 150 IP in that span.
Kyle Manzardo, DH CLE (MLB)
3-for-4, HR, 3B, 2 R, 4 RBI, BB, K
Great start to the season for Manzardo who likely won't hit many more triples this year as he huffed and puffed coming into 3rd base. This was his first home run against a LHP in the bigs, and it traveled 424 ft. The broadcast said "maybe he popped that one up a little" on contact for his HR ball, got to love local broadcasts. Josh Naylor got shipped off to Arizona but then Cleveland signed Carlos Santana to play 1B forcing Manzardo back into the DH spot. Jhonkensy Noel played RF in this game and was featured there a bit last season, but I don't think you want him there every day. Anyway, there is likely a bit of a log jam around the 1B/DH rotation, especially if C.J. Kayfus hits like he did last year, but Manzardo made a great first impression on the season.
Lucas Erceg, RHP KC (MLB)
0.2 IP
Hunter Harvey, RHP KC (MLB)
1 IP, 1 K
Carlos Estevez, RHP KC (MLB)
1 IP, 1 K
When the Royals signed Carlos Estevez this offseason he became the de facto closer. Then in spring it was noted that Lucas Erceg would get the highest leverage spots and that would include some 9th inning duties. No lies detected here in the opener as the Royals rolled out Erceg with one out in the 7th inning to face Jose Ramirez. Hunter Harvey followed with a clean 8th and Estevez took the 9th with a clean outing.
Heliot Ramos, LF SF (MLB)
1-for-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, 3 K
Add me to the list of those slightly skeptical of Ramos' breakout 2024 season. I thought the season was a bit BABIP aided and that he's closer to 100 wRC+ true talent than the 120 wRC+ he had last year. Well he here he is on Opening Day continuing his good fortune with a Great American Small Park oppo HR. What I'll give him credit for is the strength to get that ball out that far oppo. He had four similar HR last season.
Scott Barlow, RHP KC (MLB)
IP, 2 K
Emilio Pagan, RHP KC (MLB)
IP, 2 K
Tony Santillan, RHP KC (MLB)
IP, 2 K
Ian Gibaut, RHP KC (MLB)
0.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 K, HR
The Reds closer situation became wide open as Alexis Diaz got put on the IL to start the season. It was a popular bullpen to attack in draft season as Diaz had a rough season last year and change in manager likely gave him a short leash. Barlow, Pagan and Santillan were the popular choices to target, as well as Zach Maxwell who is starting the season in AAA. Ian Gibaut... was not on that list and somehow got the first (and likely last) save opportunity. I've personally got helpings of Pagan, Santillan and Maxwell. We'll have to wait to see who gets that next shot.
Drake Baldwin, C ATL (MLB)
0-for-3, BB, K
Another MLB debut on Opening Day, Baldwin got the starting catcher role after Sean Murphy cracked a rib in Spring Training. While it was a quiet day with the bat, he allowed 5 SB on the day. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado swiped two apiece and Bogaerts stole one later in the game. In Baldwin's scouting report, Rhys White graded him as a 40 arm and mentioned the concerns:
As a catcher, Baldwin is solid as a blocker, and there's no issue with his receiving or game-calling. He could benefit from being on one knee more often, though. His arm is a concern—while his throws are accurate, they lack the zip you'd want. Even at the lower levels, opponents have picked up on this and run on him frequently.
From a fantasy perspective, it's concerning in a couple ways. You wonder if he'll end up being a catcher long term if he truly can't stop the run game. On the flip side, look to target Baldwin with your bats if you're in need of SB.
Jackson Merrill, CF SD (MLB)
1-for-3, 4 RBI
Man, I just love the way Merrill plays the game. Single to CF in the 1st inning in a tough lefty-lefty matchup against Chris Sale for 2 RBI, then a groundout to 1st to score a runner in the 3rd inning and a sac fly in the 7th for his 4th RBI. I'm not expecting a sophomore slump for Merrill.
Brandon Lockridge, LF SD (MLB)
0-for-2, K
Not anything of note here other than seeing Lockridge in the Opening Day lineup may have been a surprise to some. He'll be a short side platoon bat as the Padres have Gavin Sheets (pinch hit HR) and Jason Heyward as the other bench OF.
Miguel Vargas, 3B CHW (MLB)
2-for-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI
Vargas is a popular bounce back candidate and it's nice to see him leading off against the LHP Yusei Kikuchi in the opener. I try not to read into hitter spring training stats, but it's notable that he ran just a 9.6% K rate over his 52 PA there, supported by a 4.9% SwStr. Might be worth floating an offer here as there may be some K% skill improvement and he's not going to run the .207 BABIP he's had over his first 595 career PA.
Lenyn Sosa, 2B CHW (MLB)
1-for-4, HR, R, 2 RBI
Sosa ran a sneaky 173 wRC+ in September of last year over 88 PA with 4 HR. It seemed likely that he'd get a shot to play with the wide-open White Sox lineup in 2025. Though it's notable that the start comes against a LHP, so we'll see how often he's deployed against righties. However, Sosa starts the season with home run (after zero in spring) against the RHP Ryan Johnson. If given the PA, Sosa has a shot at a useful 20 HR season.
Sean Burke, RHP LAA (MLB)
6 IP, 3 H, 3 K
I'm not sure if Burke qualifies as a surprise Opening Day starter given the options the White Sox had available, but he certainly stepped up to call. He's been a hyped draft target all offseason after showing some nice skills in a 4 game debut last year. While the strikeouts weren't there in this one, he more importantly didn't issue any walks. An improvement in that department is crucial for him to end up being a reliable starter. Additionally, as a fly ball pitcher, and one who was prone to the long ball in the minors, long term he'll need prove that he has that under control. Everything Burke has shown us in 5 MLB games has been positive, but I would not be surprised if major regression comes. If there is a "sell high" candidate from Opening Day, it's Burke for me.
Ryan Johnson, RHP LAA (MLB)
1.2 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, BB, K, 2 HR
One of the fun parts about writing the daily sheet is you get a platform to rant every once and a while. I didn't think it would come this soon, but I'm an Angels fan. Yusei Kikuchi comes gets through six innings and in the 7th, down three runs, the Angels turn to Ryan Johnson for his pro debut, which also happens to be his big league debut. Johnson was taken 74th overall in the 2024 draft out of Dallas Baptist. After a clean 1-2-3 inning, they bring Johnson back out for the 8th. He promptly gives up 2 singles, gets a pop out then allows a 3 run HR to Andrew Benintendi. After another pop out, Johnson issues a walk to Nick Maton, then allows another homer to Lenyn Sosa. None of this is complaining about Ryan Johnson, it's about the Angels forcing up a pitcher who should be getting some minor league time to get his feet wet. It's about the Angels throwing him out for a second inning after what would have been a successful debut. And it's the fact that the Angels went to a position player in Nicky Lopez to then finish out the game. On Opening Day. Against the White Sox. I'm simply embarrassed by this team.
Nick Gonzales, 2B CHW (MLB)
1-for-3, HR, R, 2 RBI, 2 K
Gonzales earned the second base job out of spring and Nick Yorke got sent back to AAA to start the season. During the home run trot of his pulled shot, he suffered an ankle injury and was removed from the game. It's unclear what the severity is at this time, but it's a shame that he could miss time after earning the spot and coming through in the opener.
Jesus Tinoco, RHP MIA (MLB)
IP, H, BB, K
The question this offseason has been Calvin Faucher or Jesus Tinoco for the closer role, with Anthony Bender hanging around in the background. With the game tied going into the 9th the Marlins opted for Tinoco and he ended up earning the Win. George Soriano threw in both the 7th and 8th innings as the Fish were down by 2 runs going into both, so we didn't get to see what a typical high leverage ladder might look like. I've loosely tied myself to Faucher, but I'm far from convinced he'll be the main closer at all or for very long.
Lars Nootbaar, LF STL (MLB)
2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI
Is this finally the season Nootbaar stays healthy? Love to see him hitting leadoff and love to see the strong start to his season. He was among the most underrated from a projection perspective this draft season.
Spencer Torkelson, DH DET (MLB)
1-for-1, HR, 2 R, RBI, 4 BB
Are you a Tork believer? He's still just entering his age-25 season, he's got the pedigree and showed some signs of life (125 wRC+) after returning from a AAA stint in August of last year. He also hit a few spring homers, for whatever that is worth. With Colt Keith shifting to 1B this year, Torkelson is looking like the near-everyday DH. If he doesn't put up, say... a 115 wRC+ over the first couple months, it's possible he's out of a job. Because pedigree or not, youthful or not, a 96 wRC+ over 1474 PA is a large enough sample to say he's not a start-able bat at 1B or DH. On day one he made a very positive impression. Let's check back in a couple weeks.
Alex Vesia, LHP LAD (MLB)
IP, H, ER, 3 K
Tanner Scott, LHP LAD (MLB)
IP, H, ER, K
Blake Treinen, RHP LAD (MLB)
IP, H, BB, 2 K, SV
This Dodgers bullpen is throwing everyone for a loop. In Japan, Tanner Scott got the first opportunity as expected. He was more or less named the closer during the offseason. Then in the second Japan game, Alex Vesia gets a save opp. Now here is Blake Treinen in game 3 earning a save. Who is absent in all this? The 2024 lock down closer for the Rangers Kirby Yates. What is clear is that there isn't a set closer, but I do think Scott will end up leading the team in the category.
Miguel Amaya, C CHC (MLB)
2-for-5, 2 2B, 5 RBI, K
A pair of doubles, one with the bases juiced (granted it was a borderline error), and one with a two men on in the 9th to extend the lead. Amaya also had a double in his lone start in Japan. Projections are mixed on him as some see him as a league average bat while others like THE BAT (X) have him for a mid-80s wRC+. Not all that convinced there will be enough juice in the bat to make him more than a 2nd catcher for fantasy purposes and with the Cubs signing the veteran Carson Kelly, he's unlikely to get a full slate of catcher PA this season.
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B SAC (MLB)
2-for-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, K
A double dong for Soderstrom! The first one went dead center, taking Logan Gilbert 432 ft. The second was a pulled shot that went 111 mph off the bat. With full time PA, there is easy 30 HR juice in the bat. The question is more of how much Sacramento will protect him against LHP - something they did last year for both him and Lawrence Butler.
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