Welcome to the first Cold Water of 2020, I don’t think anyone needs to be reminded as to why this posted a month later than initially anticipated. Instead of writing another long, depressing monologue about the current state of the world I will instead invite tonight’s keynote speaker Rakim Allah to kick things off with some words of inspiration from his 1997 classic “The 18th Letter”.
“Follow procedures, the crowd couldn't wait to see this
Nobody been this long awaited since Jesus
Who wouldn't believe this, I heard the word on the street is
I'm still one of the deepest on the mic since Adidas
They said I changed the times from the rhymes that I thought of
So I made some more to put the New World in Order
with Mathematics, put your status above the average
And help you rappers, make paragraphs with graphics
Cause new days is dawning, new ways of performing
Brainstorming, I write and watch the night turn to morning
On and on and, I got the whole world responding
Rock, I keep it hot and blow the spot without warning
The Emperor, well known for, inventing a sentence
full of adventure, turning up the temperature
Rush with adrenaline, how long has it been again
to be in the state of mind that Rakim is in?”
"It's been a long time" - Rakim
KBO Thoughts
With Korean baseball all the rage currently, because, you know, pandemic and all, I figured I’d mention a few prospects and one club in particular to keep an eye on, the Kiwoom Heroes. The club happens to roster three of the top ten or so major league prospects in the league including the best two in shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee.
Kim is arguably the biggest name in the league from a future value standpoint and those that know the league and the American baseball landscape view him as a Top 100 prospect level player. He’s good defensively and is a plus runner. It’s around average power that projects somewhere in the teens. He’s worth a watch as a player that could be a hot commodity should he leave the KBO.
His teammate Jung-Hoo Lee jumped the minors entirely making his KBO debut at 18. He’s a contact oriented prospect with below average power and plus speed. He’s not a standout defender and projects as a corner guy. It’s an odd profile but maybe at peak he’s a poor man’s Carl Crawford?
Neither player has major league starter written all over them but Kim is likely an above average MLB regular. The Heroes are worth a watch if you’re more interested in talent than following one club.
Draft Thoughts
There’s been a lot of talk about the college pitching in this upcoming draft class, and deservedly so, it’s tremendously deep with talented arms. However, the prep outfielders class really needs to be discussed more, with top-of-the-class talents like Zac Veen, Robert Hassell III, Austin Hendrick, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Dylan Crews. All of them have fantasy value to some degree long term, but there’s some legitimate projectable star hitters at the top of this group in Veen, Hassell, and Hendrick. There’s a little more signability concern with Crow-Armstrong and a little less power ceiling. Crews is a step behind that group in my opinion but he’s close enough overall to be in the conversation of the top prep hitters. The first iteration of my FYPD is coming sometime in the next few weeks and all five are within my top 20.
Beyond just the top end there’s some legitimate depth in the prep outfielders corps outside the top group. A list of names to follow include Petey Halpin, Chase Davis, David Calabrese, and Jake Vogel.
Chase Davis is a tooled up and athletic outfielder that projects as a power hitting corner guy. His high 90s exit velocities and raw power projection as a left handed hitter make him a definitive follow for our purposes. He’s inconsistent in terms of his swing mechanics, with a pronounced pause and bat wrap. There’s definite issues with the swing; it's a matter of how fixable they are. In my opinion heading to campus at the University of Arizona would be a safe move for the powerful prospect.
Petey Halpin is another talented outfielder from the California prep ranks. He’s more defense and less bat than Davis but I like Halpin more than Davis as a player at this point. Even if Halpin’s lefty swing is inconsistent in its own right. He’s an incredibly fluid athlete, runs well, and shows enough bat speed for me to buy into his progression as a hitter. It’s not often that I’d say a player's outfield workouts are impressive, but Halpin’s are.
Jake Vogel is the right handed bat of the bunch and my personal favorite. There’s a lot less projection needed in the swing mechanics and he does an excellent job of utilizing his lower half. It’s a quick, short, and efficient stroke that produces nice top end exit velocities at peak. He’s not the outfielder Halpin is but he’s got the range and instincts for center. However there’s been a limited track record of Vogel at high end events due to a myriad of soft tissues injuries.
With the proposed five round draft and lower bonus pool, it’s likely all three of these players end up on campus in 2021 Halpin to Texas, Davis to Arizona, and Vogel to UCLA.
While the top college arms suck up a lot of the air in the room, the second tier of college starters is bonkers with guys like Garrett Crochet, Cade Cavalli, Slade Cecconi, Chris McMahon, Cole Wilcox, and Tanner Burns. Some might consider Crochet or even Burns the head of this group but Cavalli has an opportunity to go the highest.
Cecconi and McMahon showed a starter’s pitchability and stuff this season for Miami. Each could be a steal come draft day, and the athletic McMahon is among my favorite arms in the entire draft. In our Prospects Live Mock Draft extravaganza, Melissa Lockhard of The Athletic drafted McMahon 26th as the acting GM of the A’s.
Wilcox looked like he was rounding into form early with Georgia early this spring and he possesses some of the highest upside of any arm in the draft. It’s a wildly strong group and one you should look forward to drafting come FYPD day next year. The early arms and bats will suppress a lot of the draft table acquisition cost. In my opinion this is a year to have a depth of picks across the first few versus a few high number picks. Last season I would have advised the opposite.
Our forthcoming FYPD rankings are in the works. They’ll be posted pre-draft and include J2 eligible players as well. There will be an update at some point following the draft. So be on the lookout. In the meantime our Mock Drafts are available, including the replay of the first annual Prospects Live Mock Draft Show on YouTube.
Dynasty Names From Top 30 Digs
We did a ton of work this year to step up our top 30 prospect lists and we just concluded with the Washington Nationals. I dug through the nearly 900 names to pick a few worth noting.
Taylor Walls, SS - 16th on the Rays Top 30
Mostly a recommendation for the deeper league readers because Walls gives off strong “utility” vibes. But here’s the thing, he’s strong defensively and versatile. He’s a switch hitter with an advanced approach and gap power. He can run too, giving him the makings of a dark horse leadoff guy. He’s more than likely free in your dynasty league and is at least worth a watch flag. We know the Rays reluctance to give players full time roles from the jump, BUT we also know they value exactly the kind of versatility Walls brings to their lineup. Obviously there’s a huge roadblock at short and second base for the foreseeable future so Walls’ playing time situation was already muddled to begin with. That said the cream has a way of rising to the top and Walls can ball.
Reggie Preciado, SS - 19th on the Padres Top 30
One of the top talents identified by one of our former colleagues Jason Pennini during fall instructs, our unpublished reports on Preciado are glowing. Feel to hit with projectable power and a frame built for projection. Not as buzzy as Maximo Acosta but Preciado might be the better talent. We have video up of Preciado, he’s super thin and lanky but he’s got a nice stroke and he oozes upside. Arguably my personal favorite from this J2 class.
Joe Ryan, RHP - 10th on the Rays Top 30
Fastball command just gets me, man. Every time, if a guy can command his heater to both sides of the plate, I’m hooked. Joe Ryan does that and he improved his feel for the breaking ball, taking a slider shape later on in the season. He misses bats, is athletic in his delivery and on the mound, doesn’t waste many pitches, and has the raw fastball for the pen. Ryan is a major leaguer for me, and I think he can start even with his fastball dominant repertoire. Don’t get me wrong, it limits Ryan’s ultimate ceiling but he continued to improve throughout the season. There’s a lot to like about a guy with fastball command that takes well to coaching. Ryan is a known commodity in most of your leagues but he’s a buy for me as he might be a little underrated.
Eddy Yean, RHP - 8th on the Nationals Top 30
Sometimes $100,000 can land you a talent on the international market and Yean looks like one. He’s a projectable righthander with a three-pitch mix and a two-seam fastball with good armside run. He pushed all the way to short season ball at the end of 2019 and was likely due for a full season assignment out of camp had he pitched well. Obviously all players face a season in limbo but many of these exciting young arms who were expected to make their full season debut may need to wait until 2021 to finally face their first real test of the season long grind. Regardless, Yean is a cheap name to add in a deeper dynasty, though I expect he’s scooped in 24 to 30 team leagues.
Julio Carreras, 3B - 11th on the Rockies Top 30
When did we go from overrating all the Rockies prospects to underrating some? Outside James Anderson’s Top 400 list I haven’t seen a ton of mentions of Carreras. He’s tall, projectable, and fun. You can definitely squint the right way and see an everyday third baseman with pop in the bat. He’s a long way from reaching that point but the zone awareness, bat to ball, and raw power are. I’m not confident Colorado’s player development maxes him out, but you never know. He’s an interesting stash and a secondary trade piece in a larger deal. Worth owning in leagues with 250+ prospects.
Helcris Olivarez, LHP - 13th on the Rockies Top 30
A lefty with stuff and a ton of flair. Helcris is just fun as hell to watch pitch. He’s low-90s mostly with the fastball but did pop some 95-96s later in the season. He’s a good projection arm with an inconsistent curveball that will flash plus and feel for a changeup. He had wild home/road splits this year and makes for somewhat ugly numbers. He was very good at home and he’s worth a spin on MiLB.TV if you have a couple of minutes.
Chris Murphy, LHP - 20th on the Red Sox Top 30
Murphy is just my dude, the kid took to pro ball like a fish to water and he’s shown significantly better feel for his secondaries and his fastball. With some simple tweaks to his approach he threw more strikes and missed bats. The sixth rounder was in for more of a trial this season in A ball as he looked to take on more of a starters workload. It’s somewhat of a long shot to be an impact fantasy starter in shallower formats, but he’s worth a spot in leagues where 350+ prospects are owned.
Mason Martin, 1B - 13th on the Pirates Top 30
My man just mashes. Simple and plain. With 71 extra base hits across two levels in 2019, Martin presents one of the best power bats in the minors. He is however heavy to the extreme on the three true outcome spectrum. His strikeout rate is in the 30 percent territory and he’s first base only. That’s a risky profile, but one worth chasing. Particularly in OPS heavy formats where Martin’s power and double digit walk rate will play. Martin likely returned to high-A Bradenton this season with a summer promotion to Double-A Altoona likely. Obviously much like many of this list we will have to wait until 2021 to see Martin tested at the upper levels.
Enoli Paredes, RHP - 11th on Astros Top 30
Reliever arms aren’t the sexiest of targets in dynasty formats but sometimes arms with elite stuff are just worth owning. Enoli Paredes possesses high leverage stuff and there’s little question his future role is in the pen. Armed with a plus fastball that sits 94-96 touching 98+ with movement and a nasty slider with heavy spin. If you’re in a Saves+Holds format, Paredes would be an arm on my watch list. The command and control issues are very real, so there is some risk, but the reward outweighs it due to the low acquisition cost. Goes without saying but this is once again a 300+ prospect type of add. Shallower leagues need not apply here.
Lewin Diaz, 1B - 8th on the Marlins Top 30
I love Lewin Diaz, my obsession dates back years to when he first caught my eye with strong statistical performances in 2016 and 2017. I dug in some video and really liked the powerful left handed swing. He’s made some adjustments to leverage more of his strength and has managed to mitigate some of his early contact issues as well. A well-rounded left handed power hitter with a legit shot to be a starter on the major league level. There are not a ton of those at first base right now and Diaz is rumored to be part of the Marlins plans sooner rather than later. I’d look to acquire Diaz in all formats. I believe he is a legitimate top 100 fantasy prospect entering this season.
Llover Peguero, SS - 8th on the Pirates Top 30
Hit tool! That’s where it all starts with Peguero, short to the ball and explosive already. An above average athlete that should add strength as he matures, Peguero already shows a strong feel for the barrel and isn't intimidated by elevated velocity. His plus speed and above average defensive chops offer a total package that could see him push into consensus Top 100 status and beyond. There’s a lot of groundball contact at the moment and some concern he could lose athleticism as he adds strength, but the baseline understanding of hitting is there. Peguero is a player I would once again look to acquire in most, if not all, dynasty formats. The delay in movement within the prospect ranks is likely to be limited at best the next 6-9 months and Peguero might splash big in 2021. He's years away, but get him now.
Dariel Lopez, SS - 15th on the Pirates Top 30
A 2018 J2 signee for Pittsburgh to the tune of $400,000, Lopez needed TJS not too long after signing, but a speedy recovery saw him back on the field for the 2019 DSL season. There Lopez dominated slashing .341/.404/.479, despite being a somewhat under discussed prospect he has a profile we’d typically be excited about, a bat first shortstop with a chance to stick at the six long term.
Alex Jensen did an excellent job of detailing Lopez here “Lopez stands out at the plate for his plus bat speed and feel for the barrel. He uses all fields well and makes consistent contact. While his approach at the plate was not yet plus, it was well above expectations for a 17 year old who had been out with injury for a year and he looks extremely comfortable against pitchers from both sides. Lopez flashes above average raw power and showcased it at times in the DSL, averaging 293 ft on his fly balls and even hitting one 433 feet to dead center. Not bad for a projectable 17 year old who missed a year of conditioning. Lopez needs to learn to get the ball airborne more to get to that power in games and has a tendency to roll the ball over when behind in counts. But that should go away with reps and coaching.”
More coming next week…