Top 100 Hitters Update: 7/31

Mike Trout (+4)

It was probably an overreaction to ding the best hitter in the game because we assumed he was going to miss playing time for the birth of his child this summer. It’s not that Trout won’t miss some time. The issue is, we can’t really predict who is going to miss time and when in this environment. So move Trout back up to #1 overall in the rankings.

Ozzie Albies (-4)

A little bit of a slow start for the young switch-hitter. Doesn’t merit dropping him a bunch, but just be aware. The good news is his xBA and xSLG are solidly above-average, so hopefully this is just a patch of bad luck.

Adalberto Mondesi (-13)

This kind of slow start was always the large concern for Mondesi owners. He’s not seeing the ball well at all. He’s yet to take a walk, and his K% is 40 percent so far this season. As the old saying goes ‘you can’t steal first base’. He also was dropped down to 6th in the order.

Matt Olson (+2)

A walkoff grand slam on Opening Day should be a nice reminder that Olson is an elite power hitter and just now entering his prime. He’s got a patient approach at the plate and will punish mistakes, so pitchers are being careful. Don’t be surprised if he sets new career highs in BB% and SLG% this season.

George Springer (-10)

The Philthy Projections were IN LOVE with Springer coming into the season, projecting an .839 OPS and 13 home runs. But he’s off to a super rough start, batting .048 so far. He hasn’t displayed much feel for the barrel, and the results are a ton of weak contact (13 percent weak-hit%) and getting under the ball (33 percent under-hit%, 20 percent pop-up rate).

Anthony Rizzo (+4)

Maybe because he’s so steadily good, Rizzo flies a little under the radar for fantasy. But he’s locked in to start the season. Ditto for the Cubs as an organization (as much as it pains me to say that).

Yoan Moncada (+5)

Yoan Moncada missed the majority of Summer Camp due to a positive COVID-19 test upon intake. However, he hasn’t really missed a beat at the plate. He looks super dialed-in, diagnosing pitches with ease, talking walks, and driving the ball in the air on contact. He’s an AL MVP sleeper candidate.

Corey Seager (+22)

It’s early, but he’s locked in. All of his key Statcast metrics are 90th percentile or above. He’s actually maybe a bit unlucky to be hitting ‘only’ .350 so far this season. He’s also a guy playing in his “Age 26” season that’s just starting to hit his prime.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-6)

He’s hitting the ball hard (95.2 average exit velo so far on the young season), but he’s just not lifting the ball enough. He’s posted a 61.1 percent groundball rate so far in 2020, nearly 15 percent above the MLB average. He doesn’t run well enough to beat these hard hit grounders out for singles. And teams are shifting against him a lot more (up to 15.4 percent in 2020 thus far), taking away some seeing-eye hits. The potential is still there, but he has to start improving the launch angle.

Carlos Correa (+5)

Philthy Projections had Correa running a .852 OPS for 2020, so maybe we were discounting him too much to begin with. The SB threat is likely gone, but Correa could be elite in every other category. He hits 6th, which will cost him some PAs, but he’s in a prime spot to drive in runs given the lofty OBPs batting in front of him. Also, he’s 25 so he’s just now entering his prime as well.

Yasmani Grandal (-5)

Veteran signing joins the White Sox, forgets how to hit. Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme…

Justin Upton (+3)

Chronically underdrafted, Upton is a consistent power hitter. He’s batting cleanup behind OBP monsters Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani. There’s a chance for a bunch of fantasy production here if he gets hot.

Jonathan Villar (-40)

The Marlins season is paused, so you have to wait and see what the heck is going on with him. Now, this feels a little gross to write, but if you want to take on some risk now for a shot at a bunch of compiling stats later, maybe keep your eye on the Villar trade market or if an owner drops him. Because, in the event that the Marlins make up these games at a later date, and Villar is healthy and able to play in them, there’s a bunch of pent up playing time here.

Dansby Swanson (NEW)

Dansby owners know that he was cooking in 2019 prior to injury. Well, he’s back doing it again due to his exquisite barrel control this season. His weak hit percentage, topped hit percentage, and under hit percentage are all well below MLB average. He’s got the pedigree (former #1 overall pick) and he’s entering his prime age seasons. That said, we would like to see him climb up the batting order a bit.

Joey Votto (NEW)

Maybe we overreacted to the aging curve and Votto’s slower 2018 and 2019 production? The Philthy’s still liked him to hit for a strong .284/.395/.452 triple slash this year. He’s making insane contact so far, posting a 1.1 percent SwStr rate. And he’s hit two home runs despite not finding the barrel yet this season. Finally, he’s locked in as Cincinnati’s two-hole hitter for the season.

Teoscar Hernandez (NEW)

Teoscar is just pounding the ball right now, posting an absurd 68.8% hard-hit rate in 2020. His home runs are pure missiles that are leaving pitchers dejected. Oh yeah, he’s swiped two bags as well. Should be owned everywhere.

Wil Myers (NEW)

He’s getting everyday playing time for the Friars and he’s really taking advantage of that situation. Currently plugged in at sixth in the order while splitting time between RF, 1B, and DH. He’s finding the barrel at a 94 percent clip, and walking 20 percent of the time, so give him an extra boost in OBP and sim formats. But even in traditional 5x5, his potential contribution in the four categories outside of batting average mean he should be owned across the board.

Andrew Benintendi (OUT)

Off to a rough start, and the Red Sox have dropped him down to ninth in the batting order in response. Or for ‘analytics’, I’m not sure. Anyway he doesn’t profile to strike out this much based on his track record, so hopefully it’s just a temporary blip and his steady contributor profile clicks back into place. Lower expectations for now though.

Oscar Mercado (OUT)

We were hoping that Mercado would be a top of lineup force and become a potential five-category contributor this season. Instead, Mercado is splitting time in CF with Bradley Zimmer and hitting at the bottom of the order.

Gavin Lux (OUT)

We put the hitter ranks out before the Dodgers put Lux down to the “Alternate Site”. He got a late start due to COVID-19 testing, and the Dodgers are super deep so they don’t need him to handle regular 2B duties. And anything less than a World Series trophy will be a disappointment for them this year, so they don’t have the time to wait for their young players to get into a groove.

Yasiel Puig (OUT)

We were looking prescient by including Puig in the initial Top-100 hitters rankings. And then, his reported deal with the Braves fell through. I’m optimistic that he gets a gig somewhere, and when he does he will provide his usual consistent fantasy value. But the clock is ticking.