On Wednesday afternoon, arguably the most highly anticipated debut of the 2020 season happened. Nate Pearson made his debut in Washington, a technical “home game” for the Blue Jays due to the travel restrictions levied down on the team by the Canadian government. Pearson took the mound against the defending champs and showed a better version of the guy I saw a trio of times in New Hampshire last season.
Working predominantly fastball+slider, Pearson went five scoreless innings, striking out five, while allowing four base runners on two hits and two walks. He showed improved spin on his fastball from the year prior and had a much easier time of commanding the pitch up in the zone. While working north-south in the zone with his heavy gyro-spin vertical slider. He worked in a handful of changeups, and threw one sinker. He limited hard contact and showed improved bat missing skills.
On the night he was incredibly efficient getting through 15 outs on just 75 pitches. I’m not sure I’d anticipate as efficient an outing the next time out, particularly if he remains on a strict 75-80 pitch count. It’s certainly plausible he builds up to 100 within a few starts, but I’d expect five inning max runs for the time being. However, based on the quality of Pearson’s performance he’s a must start for me in all formats, outside something obnoxiously shallow.
Not to be outdone, the Astros Cristian Javier started a few hours later and dominated the Dodgers. The righthander showed the finesse he’s famous for, changing speed on his fastball, manipulating the movement on his breaking ball and changeup and showing the Los Angeles hitters a variation of looks. He also worked into the sixth leaving the game after 82 pitches upon retiring two outs in the frame. He combined for 10 whiffs and 20 called strikes, good enough for 37 CSW%. Javier is slated to face the Diamondbacks on the road tomorrow evening, and looks like another strong start for most formats.
Cold Water: It’s never been a matter of stuff or ability with Javier. It’s been a matter of command and role. He was far more efficient on Wednesday than he had been historically. This could be a sign of things to come potentially as Javier certainly has the stuff and pitchability to start. It’s a question of the Astros ramping him up to a normal starter’s pitch count of 95-105 pitches, and Javier himself being economical with his pitches. The later is easier said than done, keep in mind this is a player with a career 13 BB% in the minors. No matter how good he looked on Wednesday. That said, Javier is certainly worth a dice roll in all formats and a worthy investment in deeper leagues. However some of the NFBC bids I saw were extremely aggressive. He’s more a 5%-8% of your FAAB bid for me than 25%-30% which seemed like the norm. Save that for Casey Mize.
There’s been a lot of talk on both sides of the Nick Madrigal call-up and sorry to disappoint you but I settle somewhere in the middle. Do I think he’ll be a star that’s must-own in 12 team league? Some years, yes. Is it typical of the modern game? No. But as he showed on Sunday, he’ll get on base, put the ball in play and make things happen. His fantasy value is heavily tied to getting on base, stealing bases and scoring runs.
Cold Water: You’ll likely be able to count his homer total on one hand and for now he’s likely slotted at the bottom of the White Sox order. It almost feels cliche writing this the Madrigal debate is so beaten to death.
Did the rain deny us the debut of 2018 1.1 pick Casey Mize? That’s certainly what has been making the rounds, to further complicate matters the Tigers are scheduled to face the quarantined Cardinals in the first half of the week, so it’s very likely Mize’s debut was pushed back further due to the current complications of the pandemic. My guess is we see Mize’s debut next weekend in Pittsburgh, and you couldn’t ask for a better setup. A weaker lineup in a good pitcher’s park. I’d go out and add Mize in all redraft formats, because there’s 0.0% chance he’s not already owned in every dynasty.
Cold Water: We still don’t know when he’s getting the call officially, but it seems to be soon. At the moment Mize is healthy and there’s little else you can knock besides his checkered medical history. On the mound Mize combines two plus secondaries in his slider and splitter, mixing in a cutter as well. His fastball command will come and go at times but by and large he works all four quadrants with his fastball in the 92-96 mph range.
There was an announcement made on Sunday that the Orioles Ryan Mountcastle would debut in 2020. There was no follow-up to how soon or in what capacity, but it’s worth keeping on our radars in the short term. Not a bad upside flier if you’re looking for power and batting average in re-draft. It’s a limited profile, but Mountcastle has hit at every stop outside a rough 39 game Double-A sample in 2017. Along the way the former first rounder has slashed .298/.328/.471 with 70 home runs across 524 minor league games.
Cold Water: We do not have a call-up date and Mountcastle’s role is questionable due to his extremely limited defensive profile. Make no mistake, if Mountcastle had a true position where he could provide league average MLB defense he’d be in the majors already, maybe as early as last summer. So something has to give for Mountcastle to earn playing time at either DH, left field, or his new venture first base. Not a great OBP league bat, Mountcastle’s skills play best in traditional five by five.
With the current debacle the Marlins are in there’s a need for a healthy dose of “healthy active players" as they get back into competitive games early this week in Baltimore. This means Monte Harrison will get the call. An early standout in Summer Camp due to a couple of loud homers, Monte is an enticing fantasy get. He provides speed and power, while providing a strong defensive profile at a high value position. You can’t hope for much consistency in the batting average department, where he’s likely a detriment. You’re looking for some homers and steals at a cheap cost.
Cold Water: Let’s just say for argument’s sake that Monte plays every day the next week, maybe more. What are you expecting? While there could be early fireworks in the cards, Harrison’s hit tool is shaky enough he might get figured out quickly, seeing a steady diet of breaking balls away. He has made incremental improvements to his ability to make contact for some time now, but it’s still a question of whether or not is a true 40 hit. Jump in for some cheap power and speed, but be ready to endure a lot of strikeouts and maybe a massive flop. Harrison presents massive upside long term still so he’s a different play in dynasty. I’d tread lightly in redraft.
With the release of our Fantasy Top 500 this week an interesting observation came from colleague Brad Johnson. With the Mets David Peterson checking in at 450+, do we perhaps underrate close-to-the-majors safe arms? The short answer, yes. But I feel it’s less a product of us negating a player’s skills as much as it’s a product of the general preferences of dynasty league managers. Arms like Peterson are typically in abundance on most waiver wires, and until a player gets a true opportunity it’s hard to know how early success will translate. That said, Peterson has been strong through his first two turns in the Mets rotation. The former Oregon product has now gone 11.2 innings, allowing five earned runs, striking out 11 to just three walks. He mixes a sinking fastball, slider and changeup and is mostly focused on driving weak contact as opposed to missing bats.
Cold Water: Have Peterson’s early starts been encouraging? Yes, but I’d keep in mind his strikeouts, ability to avoid barrels, and limit hard contact is all below average. His MLB percentile ratings tell the story, 19% for K%, 25% in barrels, and 31% in xSLG according to Baseball Savant. Start Peterson while you need the innings. I am in a variety of formats, but don’t expect the good times to roll along unscathed.
Cold Water Fresh From The Tap…
There’s trouble in the Boston rotation, not news to anyone with even a shred of an idea as to what’s going on. But there were some interesting comments by GM Chaim Bloom on Sunday in regards to both Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata. I won’t quote word for word, but it sounds like a Houck debut in some capacity is on the horizon. My guess is we see him rolled out in a 3-4 inning opener role. The comments on Mata seemed more wishy washy, but his recent performances in inter-squad in Pawtucket leave some optimism he may join the Sox rotation at some point in 2020. Neither are more than adds in deeper formats where pitching prospects are more fluid, something like a 20-team dynasty with 10-15 minors spots.
Dave Robert’s comments Sunday to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com referenced that Gavin Lux is “getting closer” to being called up by the Dodgers. Lux was one of the top prospects in all formats heading into the season and the Dodgers decision to not carry him on the active roster was one of the bigger prospect based decisions out of summer camp. To the Dodgers credit, Lux was late to Camp 2.0 and looked rusty in the inter-squad games. He’s gotten his groove back during scrimmages at the alternate site. With good performances from Enrique Hernandez of late, Lux may first see limited playing time before cementing a full-time role. I’d play the long game with Lux in all formats, as long as you can roster him when he’s out of the lineup. It’s a format and league based decision. In all dynasty however he should be 100% owned, but you already knew that because you’re a smart cookie.
Couple of notes here on a pair of recent White Sox draft picks. The Southsiders included 2019 and 2020 second round arms Jared Kelley and Matthew Thompson in the 60-man pool? As they were added to the alternate training squad at the Schaumburg facility. No big impact for anything this season, but these alternate training games are the closest we’re going to get to minor league action for many of the top talents in the minors. Worth scouring the news for updates.
It’s more bad news for Forrest Whitley, as Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported Saturday the talented, but frustrating righthander is dealing with arm discomfort. With a long history of hiccups dating back to his 2018 drug suspension, we’ve seen very little success from Whitley. He’s pitched just 86 affiliated innings in the last three seasons, allowing 64 earned runs while striking out 120 batters to 55 walks and 13 home runs. It’s been a completely unsuccessful run since his breakout 2017, and at this point has to call his long term role into question.
The Dodgers Tony Gonsolin earned his first start of the season on Friday, going four scoreless innings at the Diamondbacks. The former 9th rounder out of St. Mary’s worked mostly fastball+splitter, working in his pair of breaking balls about seven percent of the time respectively. His fastball sat 93-95 mph with 2500+ rpms of raw spin, his splitter was his go to out-pitch. As he went to the split-finger ten times in two strike counts (his fastball was used eight times with two strikes, while his slider was deployed four times with two strikes). Gonsolin was immediately removed from the active roster after the start but should see more time in the Dodgers rotation at some point over the course of the summer. Gonsolin is by no means perfect, but the added velo and the ability to work north to south with his fastball and splitter give him a modern road map to potential success.
Mi Novio Brendan McKay returned to action this weekend as he was cleared to return following a positive COVID test in the early stages of camp. For now he’ll remain at the alternate site for Tampa, but could factor into their plans at some point this summer, should injuries begin to pile up. McKay’s upside is somewhat in question and for good reason as he’s struggled to find consistency in his early MLB opportunities. He is still however the same player the Rays took out of Louisville. Polished, accomplished and hyper-competitive, it’s less “if” as opposed to “when” McKay cements himself as a rotation fixture in Tampa. I’d forget about the two-way potential at this point as he’s mostly likely to only see plate appearances in a pinch and is not likely to see more than a handful of at bats in a normal season. He still mixes four pitches from the left side and shows advanced feel for his arsenal. It’s going to be a wait in dynasty but he’s a definite hold for me at the moment.