Despite philosophical differences that seem universes apart there’s something we as humans distinctly desire: Immediate gratification. We inherently want something immediately, and to a level of our liking. Prospect hounds, common fans, and fantasy baseball managers all want the same thing: Immediate gratification in the form of immediate results. Too often we get “lost in the sauce” with poor immediate results. Conversely we go overboard in the aftermath of a great debut. Throughout my half decade of prospecting in the public space in one form or another I’ve learned a lesson or two, sometimes harshly. If I had any pearls of wisdom to bestow upon you loyal readers it’s this — Patience.
Think about some of the best players in the game. Particularly pitchers, many of them took time to mature in the majors. Struggle and adjust is the name of the game, and those that settle in and adjust to the level of competition will strive. Case in point Lucas Giolito, the hero of Tuesday night, tossing his first career no hitter. Prior to a breakout 2019 season, Giolito was considered a washed up, over-hyped, failed prospect. In reality, he was a talented arms adjusting to the highest level of competition. However, therein lies the rub.
We as prospectors, prognosticators of minor league talent, there’s a lot we don’t know. We lack information available at the Major League level, and we don’t have dozens of reporters covering the beat of every team. Meaning we know less about these players' work ethics and off-season regiments. That’s the makeup part of the equation that’s often not visible to the public. It’s the unknown variable that can turn a fifth rounder out of high school into Mookie Betts. Players grow and adjust and unfortunately that’s the wait and see element of all this. We wait and see if each talented prospect will rise to the occasion.
Okay let’s get crazy with Triston McKenzie. He looked every bit the player we hoped he would be way back in 2017. The average fastball velocity was 94.5 mph, and he showed relatively efficient back spin on the pitch with a spin rate north of 2400. He mixed in a trio of secondary pitches in his curveball, changeup and slider and showed good velocity separation on each. There’s a lot to like about “Sticks” moving forward and this was an excellent showing.
Cold Water: Let’s be honest, he faced a really bad Tigers lineup. That’s not to take much away from the way he performed but he did not face a gauntlet of above average major league bats. He’s still the same thin lanky frame, almost to an extreme, and he’s had a history of injuries the last few seasons. I’m also questioning how many starts he makes from now until the end of the season. Is Zach Plesac permanently banished? If so, that certainly opens up a potential spot for McKenzie long term, but he’ll need to pitch his way into the spot.
Patience grasshopper. That’s all I can say for Casey Mize at this point. If you’re disappointed he hasn’t been a difference maker in your redraft fantasy teams I’m sorry. Let’s be honest, you should know better than to trust a rookie against top ten lineups. However, if you roster Casey Mize in a dynasty, don’t sell. That’s enough cold water.
Man Tarik Skubal is fun. He has the louder stuff between he and Mize and a more quality fastball. But he’s very inefficient. The four-pitch mix is enticing as he mixes his fastball with three separate pitches. His slider that tunnels with his fastball and a curveball and changeup pairing from the same release. There’s a potential exciting rotation arm if he can just get through a lineup more efficiently.
Cold Water: The Tigers defense is terrible and the way they’ve called games for both Skubal and Mize has led to some questions about what exactly their plan of attack is.
Ohhhh baby who was more gifable on Saturday than Sixto Sanchez? Heavily mixing a trio of pitches in his fastball, changeup and slider. For what it’s worth he threw a few sinkers and a couple of curveballs. But it was 85% fastball, changeup, and slider. The two secondaries were very good in his changeup with strong armside run and his gyro spin slider. He does a great job on killing rise on the changeup with an average of 30 inches of drop. Both the slider and changeup boasted whiff rates above 30%.
Cold Water: The problem is the fastball got murdered and that’s not great. Despite excellent velocity, it’s inefficient spin causes it to bleed into the heart of the plate more than you’d like to see. Unfortunately despite the velocity movement like this on a fastball tends to be easier to barrel.
It was at least fun to see Cristian Pache called up, but what the heck are they doing with him? He saw four plate appearances on Friday, a defensive replacement on Saturday and that’s it. He was demoted back to the alternate site on Tuesday and it's likely we only see him again if a series of injuries inflict the Braves outfield. He was an injury replacement simple as that. I don’t know if we’ll see him again this season but it shows you he’s not far off.
So far the Marlins Jesus Sanchez hasn’t done much of anything outside walk and strikeout. He’s had just one hit but his statcast numbers aren’t bad, 94.6 average exit velocity, 109.2 mph Max EV, and a 60% hard hit rate. All of this is across 10 events, so take it with a grain of salt. However it’s good to see he’s flashing some of the expected raw power. It’s something to dream on and makes him a little more sexy for fantasy baseball than say Monte Harrison, Garrett Cooper or a litany of others.
Cold Water: There’s a few things that are a little concerning in Sanchez’s profile. His average launch angle of 5 degrees isn’t ideal for a player looking to tap into raw power. Additionally he’s been too passive. His contact rates are strong but he’s simply not being aggressive enough at the plate so far in 2020. He has some growing to do and some adjustments are needed.
It's almost as if the Orioles finally realized that Ryan Mountcastle was a member of their organization for the first time in two years. One of the more highly anticipated debuts over the last few seasons finally happened. He’s yet to do anything terribly loud, outside a hard hit double a few days back, but there is one very encouraging sign: He’s walking! That’s right, through 16 plate appearances Mountcastle has four walks to five strikeouts. One of the biggest questions around Mountcastle outside his lack of a true defensive home was his overly aggressive nature (4.6 BB% across nearly 2100 MiLB PAs). If Mountcastle has matured in this regard and is able to pair his above average contact skills with a less aggressive approach it could pay dividends long term for his fantasy managers and Orioles fans. This isn’t a shock, as Baltimore players throughout the system have seen seismic improvements since the data-driven front office of Mike Elias has taken over.
Cold Water: His underlying contact numbers do not look great through four games, and perhaps that walk rate is simply small sample size noise. There’s another slight issue. His launch angle is a -5.5 degrees at the moment, and for a player with below average foot speed and a game predicated on power and contact, that’s less than ideal. That said, it’s a small sample and I would not read into it too much. Despite some doubts about his 2020 impact, I still believe that the Baltimore organization will get the most from him long term.
The former second overall pick in the 2018 draft Joey Bart is up and getting everyday run for the Giants. He’s started four of the last five games behind the plate for San Francisco, while making an appearance in the one game he didn’t start, seeing two plate appearances. He hasn’t done a ton over 20 PAs, collecting four hits, but he has been making strong contact. With a couple of barrels, a max EV of 109.5, and an average launch angle of 9.2 degrees, his setup is consistent with someone who should flash above average or better extra base power.
Cold Water: Honestly, it’s a catcher in fantasy and you’re looking for offensive upside and playing time. Bart possesses both of those traits. That said his home park isn’t the easiest offensive environment and despite recent success, the Giants don’t possess the strongest lineup. Still a start in all fantasy formats. Damn I wish I bid more in TGFBI this week.
Speaking of catching prospects that are handy with the stick, we got our first looks at Ryan Jeffers at the MLB level. So far it’s been an aggressive approach not many walks, plenty of strikeouts, underwhelming results and some decent statcast numbers. The good: average launch angle of 12.5 degrees, a hard hit rate of 44%, and a max exit velocity of 105.6 mph. He hits the ball hard and has an optimized attack angle, even if he’s yet to barrel a ball. Once again, it’s catcher and you could probably do worse, but I’d wait and see what comes of it.
Cold Water: Mitch Garver was eligible to return from the IL this weekend, but it looks like that’s not a go. Garver is still dealing with right intercostal strain and it sounds like he might be out for a bit. Honestly, that’s great news if you roster Jeffers. But he needs to hit to provide any value, and he needs to hit for power. So far he’s yet to barrel a ball and has produced zero extra base hits. Jeffers is a great long term play, but should be easy to move on from in most standard size re-draft leagues (10 to 15 teams).
The third overall pick from the 2015 draft Brendan Rodgers is back in the majors, and he’s doing exactly what you’d expect. A whole lot of nothing while playing sparingly across a week in Colorado. He hasn’t rotted on the bench 100% of the time, but he seems to be in the early stages of the “Colorado Molting Period”. What is the Colorado Molting Period, you say? Well that’s the period in which a player slowly molts into a full-time player in Denver. Think Charlie Blackmon or Ryan McMahon’s slow roll into regular playing time. Unless you’re Nolan Arenado or Trevor Story it just seems to be the way the Rockies do things. Frustrating.
Cold Water: You know what else is frustrating? Brendan Rodgers. I’m starting to come to terms with the fact he’s likely to never be the impact bat we expected when he was drafted. Despite his contact and plate discipline numbers headed in the right direction, his statcast and batted ball data is concerning. Negative launch angle (-8.8 degrees), a lack of hard contact compared to previous seasons, and he’s hitting a lot of pull-side grounders, not a great profile. Beyond that Rodgers is yet to walk, showing that despite his swing tendencies and bat to ball improving, his on base ability and power have taken a nosedive. Perhaps it’s too early to read too much into this (it is), but this is one of the few players I don’t have much patience left for.
In what is truly a surprise callup, the Reds promoted shortstop Jose Garcia. A player rated highly by many on this site due to his combination of strong defensive skills and offensive skills, Garcia’s profile is aggressive at the plate, as he looks to barrel up and put the ball in play. His ability to make contact is a somewhat underrated aspect of his game. Sporting a 79.5% contact rate and a SwStr% <12%, he pairs these contact skills with above average raw power that hints at a potentially plus power ceiling. While his 2019 slashline might not look impressive, his wRC+ 131 was the fifth highest mark among qualified hitters in the Florida State League. His strong glove is something sorely lacking in the Cincinnati infield and even if he struggles could potentially earn him a full time gig.
Cold Water: He hasn’t played above A-Ball. Outside a stint in the Arizona Fall League, he hasn’t seen a ton of high level pitching. That’s a serious concern if you’re looking for 2020 value. He’s worth a flier for the power and speed upside, especially if he earns a full time gig, but there’s also a very high probability he struggles badly out the gate.
Ian Anderson debuted for the Braves and provided a much needed breath of life to the Atlanta rotation. Mixing his fastball, changeup and curveball. He worked the fastball elevated and his glove side curveball early in counts, before using his plus changeup to get swings and misses at the bottom of the zone in one and two strike counts. He generates good velocity due to his excellent mechanics that maximize his length and athleticism generating elite extension amongst other things. Prospect Live contributor Nathaniel Plotts breaks it down succinctly below.
It’s tough sledding these days for the Scouty Prospecty Guy types, but the Red Sox have been nice enough to provide access to their alternative site in the form of live streams from McCoy stadium. There’s been a handful of standouts but none have stood out as much as Jarren Duran. With swing adjustments Duran has added another element to his game, showing the ability to drive the ball in a way he had not shown previously. Duran dropped his hands significantly from his pre-2020 setup and it’s allowed him to utilize his above average bat speed more effectively. He’s not a bad add in deeper formats as it’s a strong possibility Jackie Bradley Jr. is moved to a contender in the last year of his deal. With Duran’s double plus wheels and new found power he could provide a nice boost late in the season as the Red Sox have little play for but a high draft pick in 2021. The arrows are pointing way up.